Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 9 Recap
Week 10 RB Rankings
Jonathan Taylor - 113.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB10 usage this month, and the Colts are 3rd in projected points this week (27.5). There is a rare downside case with Taylor, as the Colts are actually really pass-heavy in neutral and negative situations, but that doesn't happen often and Taylor is still pass-game involved. The Falcons
Christian McCaffrey
The 49ers are 13th in projected points this week (22.75), and the Rams have only allowed 12.7 fantasy points per game to RBs, the lowest in the NFL. In fact, they've still yet to give up a rushing TD to the position. At the same time, CMC is the RB2 on RB1 usage this month.
Bijan Robinson - 117.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB7 on RB7 usage this month.
The Colts are the best defense in avoiding missed tackles on RB carries.
Kyle Monangai
The Bears held D'Andre Swift (groin) out last week, then held RB tryouts on Monday. I'm assuming he's out for now, but he did return to practice in limited fashion on Wednesday. Without him, Monangai had a season-high 25.6 expected half PPR points last week en route to nearly 200 total yards. The Bears are blocking it up well, HC Ben Johnson is fully in his bag, and Monangai is a totally fine talent. Chicago is 8th in projected points this week (25.5), and the Giants have been 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs while allowing the most rushing EPA allowed and yards per carry to RBs. It's a shit show in New York despite their DL investments.
Rico Dowdle - 91.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week, Dowdle was fighting a quad injury and missed Wednesday's practice, but it sounds like that was for maintenance. Assuming he's mostly fine here, Dowdle remains a must start with Chuba Hubbard benched. Dowdle has 20.2 expected half PPR points last week and put the team on his back against the damn Packers. This week? The Panthers are 14th in projected points (22.5) against the Saints. Even Hubbard had 2 rushing scores against them last year as the starter, and over the past 3 games, the Saints have allowed 158 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
De'Von Achane - 97.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB6 on RB4 usage this month, even including that weather game in Cleveland. In his 4 other games without Tyreek Hill, Achane is averaging 18.5 half PPR points on 17.1 expected half PPR points. This is a frightening matchup overall, but less so for Achane. The Bills are 2nd-worst in rushing TDs to RBs (10) and have two key DTs injured in Ed Oliver (IR) and DaQuan Jones. They've also allowed the 3rd-most missed tackles per RB carry and haven't been very quick in space. I'm sure Achane is the focal point of the game plan with Jaylen Waddle battling a few quality CBs.
James Cook
He was a DNP on Wednesday with a foot/ankle injury that happened last game. It's been a lot more snaps for Ty Johnson than Ray Davis, but Davis profiles as the early-down grinder if Cook is rested this next week.
If he's healthy, he roles. Cook is the RB5 on RB23 usage this month, and the Bills are 1st in projected points this week (30.0) against the Dolphins, who are 3rd-worst in rushing yards allowed. He had 108-1 rushing against them earlier this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 95.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB8 on RB21 usage this month, but the Lions are 2nd in projected points this week (29.5) and he's never been that bad. The Vikings had an elite game plan to slow him down last week. I just don't think Commanders have that flexibility in their personnel and scheme to adjust for Gibbs' speed. He'll win every foot race vs. LB Bobby Wagner. There is potential for a huge game here.
Derrick Henry - 76.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Ravens are 5th in projected points this week (26.5), and he's the RB9 on RB2 usage this month despite only having Lamar Jackson for one of those outings. Henry should be far more efficient now with more goal-line opportunities. The Vikings limited the Lions run game last week, but over the entire year, Minnesota is 16th in YPC to RBs, while allowing 4 RBs to reach 99+ rushing yards (Bijan, Gainwell, Judkins, and Vidal).
Josh Jacobs
He's the RB3 on RB6 usage this month, so this is amongst the lowest I'll rank him. Jacobs will be negatively impacted by the loss of TE Tucker Kraft, and more importantly, faces a legit Eagles defense that added 3 potential players before the trade deadline. The Packers' team total is down to 23.5 points, which is lower than normal. He's also playing through a calf injury, and still, Jacobs is easy to trust given the last 1.5 seasons.
Saquon Barkley
He's the RB11 on RB15 usage this month, but the game prior to the bye was his best of the year. The Eagles made some schematic changes, including using jumbo, but also simply had better interior push with LG Landon Dickerson healthier. Hopefully these changes jumpstart a great close of the season. This week will be a relative challenge. The Packers are 5th-best against fantasy RBs, but Rico Dowdle just ate, as did Saquon in both matchups against them in 2024 (without Micah Parsons). The playoff game was a 123-yard outing, while the season opener featured 132 yards and a score.
Kyren Williams
He's the RB13 on RB11 usage this month, coming off 18.4 expected half PPR points last week in another huge win. Williams rotated drives with Blake Corum coming out of the bye week and will continue to share work. That'd be a problem in another offense, but the Rams are 4th in projected points this week (26.75) in a great matchup with the 49ers, who've allowed the 3rd-most receptions to RBs. Williams has been a choice route winner at times, and Fred Warner isn't walking through that door. To make matters worse, 49ers' 1st-round EDGE Mykal Williams tore his ACL last week. That means EDGE1, EDGE2, EDGE3, and maybe EDGE4 Bryce Huff are out.
Quinshon Judkins
He's the RB10 on RB16 usage this month, removing his half game in Week 8. Judkins balls out whenever leading and can be phased out when trailing. Luckily for him, the Browns are somehow better than the Jets, who just traded Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams and Pro Bowl CB Sauce Gardner away this week. Without Williams on the field, the Jets are allowing 5.2 YPC to RBs. This is an eruption spot if his AC joint injury allows for it. Most get a pain injection and carry on. In 3 games where the Browns won or narrowly lost, he's had 18, 23, and 25 carries. For my money, Judkins is one of the best rushers in the NFL already. I'll live with 20ish touches here, even without the pass-game role.
Rachaad White - 71.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Bucky Irving did not practice on Wednesday (shoulder) coming off their bye, and remember that social post he had after his injury? Weird stuff. Anyways, White is the RB22 on RB14 usage this month without Bucky. The Bucs are 8th in projected points this week (25.5) and he's eating a bunch of the work, but this is still a challenging matchup. The Patriots are 3rd-best against fantasy RBs this year, while allowing just 54 rushing YPG which is 10 fewer YPG than the next best defense. At least the Patriots are 4th-highest in receiving yards per game and 1st in receptions (55), and White can be drawn up plays for as a pass-catcher, especially with Mike Evans (shoulder) and Chris Godwin (fibula) still out.
Jaylen Warren - 75.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB16 on RB19 usage this month. The Steelers project for an average 21.25 points this week. And the Chargers are 14th against fantasy RBs. Everything about this is fantasy RB2.
Ashton Jeanty - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB17 on RB13 usage this month, but it's never been straight forward, as his role keeps changing. Coming out of the bye last week, Jeanty played 91% snaps which led to 5 targets in a suddenly pass-heavy offense. That should continue with the team in full evaluation mode with Brock Bowers clearly being their best player aside from Maxx Crosby. Unfortunately, even bellcow usage won't entirely save this matchup. The Raiders are last in projected points this week (16.75) in Denver. The Broncos have allowed the fewest RB receptions because they play a lot of man coverage with elite pass rushers, so there's typically not enough time or a need to find the checkdown.
Kimani Vidal - 77.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB18 on RB5 usage this month, but the Chargers OL is back to being without LT Joe Alt. This week, LA is only 10th in projected points (24.25) and remain the 6th-most pass heavy offense in neutral situations. The Steelers showed up last week but were consistently shredded in previous matchups. It's likely a game plan that'll feature a bunch of short receptions to dodge their pass-rushing duo, so Vidal will need to clean up things rather than be featured. Pittsburgh just held Josh Jacobs (33 rushing yards) and Jonathan Taylor (45 rushing yards) to outlier games.
Travis Etienne
The Jaguars are 6th-to-last in projected points this week (19.25) against the Texans, who have held Etienne to under 60 rushing yards in 4-straight games and only allow 3.7 YPC to RBs this year. It's a terrible spot for Etienne, who actually played really well on tape out of the bye on a season-high 26.3 expected half PPR points. The Jaguars gave him multiple goal-line carries, including a few wild cats. They just weren't blocked well or ended up at the 1-yard line. Bhayshul Tuten cleaned one up, but the first cracks were to Etienne. All in all, Etienne is the RB25 on RB8 usage this month and the Jaguars don't have the WRs to be as pass-heavy as they were in October. I'd be surprised if he didn't have 15+ touches.
J.K. Dobbins - 70.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB30 on RB26 usage this month, while losing some fun touches to RJ Harvey, who is essentially Sean Payton's "Joker". That's good and bad. Dobbins isn't really threatened for normal RB work right now, and the Broncos are 7th in projected points this week (25.75) as 9-point home favorites to the Raiders. Las Vegas hasn't faced a difficult schedule of RBs this year, so this is a more friendly matchup than the spreadsheets would suggest.
David Montgomery - 60.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB31 on RB30 usage this month, but Montgomery was oddly the lead back over Gibbs last week against the Vikings' double a-gap looked defense. Over the entire season, Monty is at 10.8 half PPR points per game on 10.5 expected half PPR points. It's a good spot with the Lions projected for the 2nd-most points (29.5) at home against a deflated Commanders defense without a bunch of depth on the DL. They also lost CB Marshon Lattimore (ACL) last week.
Breece Hall
He's the RB14 on RB22 usage this month, but Hall is being held against his will after the trade deadline. The vibes are the worst in the league at the position. Nevertheless! The Jets are 3rd-to-last in projected points this week (17.5), and the Browns are 2nd-best against fantasy RBs this year at 13.7 points per game. On top of taking away the run, Cleveland is only allowing 18 receiving yards to RBs per game because they play a lot of man coverage and have LB Carson Schwesinger.
TreVeyon Henderson
Last week without Rhamondre Stevenson (toe), Hendersons started and handled 75% snaps and 14.7 expected half PPR points, while Terrell Jennings offered a between-tackles hammer complement. Running the ball against the Bucs is an impossible task with Vita Vea against this interior OL, so Henderson will need receptions and outside runs to save the day. He made a few DBs miss as a flats receiver last week but still ran tentatively between the tackles and struggled in pass protection. They're forced to play him still despite the rookie warts. Tampa Bay has at least allowed the most receiving yards to RBs (58 YPG) this year, and the Patriots are 12th in projected points this week (23.0).
Kenneth Walker - 60.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Coming out of the bye, things largely looked the same with a near even rotation, but things did swing towards Walker a tiny bit. Instead of Zach Charbonnet being subbed in at the goal line, Walker had goal-line chances on two separate drives, leading to a solid 11.0 expected half PPR points. That was his best since Week 4. The Seahawks keep playing extremely well and are 8th in projected points this week (25.75) while hosting the Cardinals, who got a breakout debut from 1st-round DT Walter Nolen. Aside from that, this is a good spot to slide Walker into the FLEX. He had 110-scoreless yards in Week 4 with Charbonnet active against them. The hope is that Walker's workload slowly ramps up as they start playing more meaningful games. Part of Charb's value is to keep Walker healthy.
Aaron Jones
Update: He was a DNP (shoulder/toe) on Wednesday.
The Vikings used Jones ahead of Jordan Mason on a short week in his return from injury in Week 8, then used him heavily last week before a new AC joint injury took him out of the game. Those are typically injuries a RB will play through after a pain injection, and the offense is trying to be more balanced with an inexperienced QB. That'll be especially true this week with the Ravens' healthier defense coming to town. The challenge is if Jones would be subbed out at the goal line even if he's the lead back otherwise.
Zach Charbonnet - 48.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Charbonnet has led Walker in expected half PPR points in 5-of-7 healthy games this year, but last week wasn't one of them, as Walker handled both goal-line opportunities. Charbonnet still rotated drives and would be the preferred 2-minute drill back, so treating last week's dud as the outlier is reasonable. He's the RB24 on RB24 usage this month, and the Seahawks are 8th in projected points at home against the Cardinals.
Woody Marks
He's the RB27 on RB20 usage this month, while still splitting the work with Nick Chubb fairly evenly. Marks, I guess, is a bit better but he's still struggling in general. I break ties in his favor because offenses facing the Jaguars pass the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate. That leans more Marks than Chubb, but neither profile well without CJ Stroud. The Texans are projected for just 18.25 points.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
He's the RB50 on RB34 usage this month with the Commanders battling through injuries. That story continues now and moving forward with Marcus Mariota taking over. This week will be a challenge. The Lions are 4th-best against fantasy RBs on the fewest carries per game, and Bill is subbed out when trailing. Hell, even last week, Chris Rodriguez subbed in for the Bill roll a bit. The Commanders project for 20.0 points at home as 9.5-point dogs.
Blake Corum
The Rams are 4th in projected points this week (26.75), so there could be room for two. Last week after the bye was interesting. In terms of snaps, Williams dominated, but upon rewatch, that doesn't paint the exact picture. Corum played every other drive. His drives just ended in more 3-and-outs. In theory, Corum could get lucky and drive to the end zone for his drives next week. His tape has been totally fine, making him one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy. That may be selling his low-end FLEX appeal short, too. He's had 10.8 and 6.3 expected half PPR points in his last two outings.
Tyrone Tracy - 64.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Devin Singletary
To my (and everyone's surprise), the Giants split the backfield nearly evenly with Singletary getting the edge by handling all 7 snaps in the red zone. Tyrone Tracy isn't much of a short-yardage hammer to try to explain that. For now, it's a backfield to avoid, but it was 8.6 expected half PPR points to Singletary last week compared to 6.5 for Tracy. That could flip back towards Tracy at any moment after being the lead back last year and sliding in as Cam Skattebo's backup in Week 8 before his ankle dislocation.
RJ Harvey - 36.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB43 usage this month, operating as the Broncos' Joker in an impactful and fun but limited role behind Dobbins. This is a week where a couple manufactured touches could pay off. The Broncos are 7th in projected points this week (25.75) at home against the Raiders. They've been struggling after contact recently, and many play-callers are running outside away from Maxx Crosby.
Jordan Mason
In 3ish games with Aaron Jones, Mason has 9.8, 2.9, and 9.9 expected half PPR points and those include the half games for the veteran. Mason needs a big rush or a goal-line touchdown to pay off as a flex play. The Vikings are projected for just 22 points against the healthier Ravens defense, and as we saw last week, J.J. McCarthy is live for goal-line vultures himself.
Nick Chubb
He's the RB52 on RB32 usage this month, and he's not making individual plays. Teams facing the Jaguars chose to pass the ball at the league's highest rate, too. Houston's team total sits at 19.75 points with CJ Stroud in concussion protocol.
Emari Demercado
He's the RB29 on RB28 usage this month. The Seahawks are 2nd-best in YPC to RBs.
Zonovan Knight
He's the RB28 on RB17 usage this month, coming off a 10.9 expected half PPR outing last week with Emari Demercado occupying a real role. The Seahawks are 2nd-best in YPC to RBs.
Bhayshul Tuten
Alvin Kamara
Look, it's not great. The Saints are 2nd-to-last in projected points this week (17.0) despite playing the Panthers, and Kamara isn't making any plays anymore. He's just the RB43 on RB35 usage this month, even without Kendre Miller. He's live to lose a rare goal-line opportunity to Taysom Hill bullshit, and the team isn't throwing the ball to RBs like previous teams. Kamara has just 4.8 and 5.5 expected half PPR points in the 1.5 games with Tyler Shough and without C Erik McCoy and other interior members. To make matters even worse (somehow), the Saints aren't expected to have RT Taliese Fuaga (ankle) this week and beyond.
Tyler Allgeier
Week 10 WR Rankings
Puka Nacua - 95.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Even in an incomplete game last week (chest), Nacua had 19.3 half PPR points. This is an eruption spot with the 49ers missing their top-3 edge rushers and LB Fred Warner. The Rams project for the 4th-most points (27.0) this Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 93.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR2 on WR4 usage this month, and this year, JSN has an all-time yards per route. All time. This is an unsustainable pace, so it'll look like Rashid Shaheed is going to hurt his numbers. The reality is it largely won't. The Seahawks have room for another highly-efficient target to dance around on crossing routes off play action. Most of the looks will still go towards JSN. It's just a lot to ask to keep up a 71% catch rate on 15+ air yard targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 80.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR13 on WR7 usage this month, continuing his elite floor as a consistent fantasy WR1. This is an eruption spot this week, with the Lions back to an elite 28.5-point team total at home. Commanders SCB Mike Sainristill has regressed this year, and CB1 Marshon Lattimore tore his ACL last week.
Emeka Egbuka - 71.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR59 on WR5 usage this month, as the most obvious positive regression candidate in the history of The Blueprint column. No Mike Evans (IR) and Chris Godwin (DNP on Wednesday) solidify an elite role on an offense projected for 25.5 points. Egbuka has recently been missed on the post routes that he was lights out on during his September heater. That will even out over the next month. This year, he's averaging 14.4 half PPR points on 12.4 expected half PPR points. That's a low-end median projection for him right now given the WR injuries.
Davante Adams - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR7 on WR3 usage this month, easily pacing the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line. In fact, that's 13 targets to Adams with 8 being the 2nd-best across the league. This is an eruption spot with the 49ers missing their top-3 edge rushers and LB Fred Warner. The Rams project for the 4th-most points (27.0) this Sunday.
Drake London - 71.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR1 on WR2 usage this month, coming off a season-high 25.0 expected half PPR points last week while in comeback mode. London is a total monster at the catch point but goes overlooked as a route runner and YAC threat on underneath and intermediate routes. He's the best player on the team quite easily. This week, the Falcons are 6.5-point dogs in a dome against a Colts defense that's allowed the most receptions to RBs this year. Unfortunately, that split will be cured by the addition of Pro Bowl CB1 Sauce Gardner, who was shadowing top receivers in New York. I believe that'll continue with the Colts.
Justin Jefferson - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR20 on WR12 usage this month. His numbers won't be as good as they were with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold because the Vikings are opting for more balance with an inexperienced QB, and because JJ's accuracy is the worst of the group. That's okay when Jefferson is making 1-handed grabs at the goal line. The Ravens have a healthy secondary featuring All Pro S Kyle Hamilton and CBs Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey. It's a tough spot, though at home.
Jaylen Waddle - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR23 on WR34 usage this month, but that includes a predictably bad weather-related game in Cleveland. In the 4 games without Tyreek Hill and not in the weather, Waddle is averaging 15.5 half PPR points on 11.2 expected points. Those are fringe WR1 numbers and unsurprising given his talent. The Dolphins are 9.5-point dogs to the Bills, so game script is very clearly on his side. Buffalo does have two CBs who can play now, but Waddle will be peppered and their team total is still 20.5 points at home.
Ladd McConkey - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR12 on WR8 usage this month, and even though LT Joe Alt's season-ending ankle injury will hurt the offense in general, it may also mean more underneath throws to McConkey if they trail more or don't feel comfortable on the downfield shots to Quentin Johnston. The Steelers have multiple strong edge rushers going up against backups and have struggled defending the pass, so it'd make sense to major in underneath throws in this matchup. In fact, Pittsburgh, despite already having their bye, has allowed the most WR receptions. That's 16.1 per game.
Rome Odunze - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot. The Giants stink on defense and still haven't had CB1 Paulson Adebo (knee) return to practice. Odunze's drops are frustrating, but he's still the clear top target in the offense and won't be facing the CB talent he's faced recently. He's also had a TD called back recently, which happened away from the play. As the Bears offense continues to gel, Odunze's odds of big games go up. They have a 25.5-point team total.
Courtland Sutton - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR42 on WR36 usage this month, the worst stretch for him in a long time. The emergence of Troy Franklin and gadget players like RJ Harvey have hurt at the margins, but this is a bounce back spot against the Raiders given the Broncos' 26.0-point team total. They don't have a quality CB right now. If there is a flaw, it's this: He's only averaging an 18% target share against zone coverage, which is what the Raiders (bad) defense majors in.
Zay Flowers - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Over the past 2 years with Lamar Jackson healthy, Flowers has a 23% target share and a very good 2.2 yards per route. He'll have explosives and catches a few underneath looks per game to keep his floor relatively high, but Flowers has 5-of-59 receiving touchdowns with Lamar over this span. The Vikings are 9th-best against fantasy WRs and looked a lot better with EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel last week.
DeVonta Smith
He's the WR9 on WR20 usage this month.
A.J. Brown - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Waiting on if he'll play.
Michael Pittman - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR14 on WR27 usage this month. Indianapolis is actually 4th in neutral pass rate, so if they aren't blowing teams out in the 2nd half, they have an underrated amount of targets up for grabs. The Colts are projected for the 3rd-most points this week (27.5) against the Falcons. Don't expect A.J. Terrell to shadow either Pittman or Alec Pierce.
Nico Collins - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
CJ Stroud has been ruled out, so it's Davis Mills and an 18.0-point team total at home against the Jaguars. Mills has at least played NFL football and peppered Collins for a 30% targets per route last week. Offenses facing this Jaguars defense has passed the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations this year, too. Volume should be here.
Garrett Wilson - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's limited (knee) coming out of the bye, and we don't know who is the QB yet. Before his injury, Wilson averaged 13.5 half PPR points on 11.9 expected points between QBs. This team is entirely centered around Wilson and the quality OL, especially without their two best defenders moving forward. Wilson will face CB1 Denzel Ward in coverage with the Browns' pass rush giving Justin Fields (or Tyrod Taylor) trouble.
Romeo Doubs - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR34 on WR14 usage this month, and last week without Tucker Kraft (ACL), Doubs had 16.0 expected half PPR points. Matthew Golden has a shoulder injury and Christian Watson is still rounding into form in a part-time role. It's mostly Doubs through the air, and the Packers will be in a close matchup against the Eagles. Doubs versus CB1 Quinyon Mitchell on the perimeter will be a battle.
DK Metcalf - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR33 on WR30 usage this month, but it's been a roller coaster week over week, as expected. The Steelers are slight dogs (3 points) in a dome against the Chargers, so there could be a few more dropbacks than normal here. Metcalf isn't a downfield threat only anymore, occasionally seeing some quick targets after Aaron Rodgers checks into a look at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, the Chargers are really leaning into preventing the big play. They've been 2nd-best against fantasy WRs.
Marvin Harrison - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR16 on WR15 usage this month, removing his concussion game. Harrison passed the test last week with flying colors against a laughable Cowboys defense. He's not being used differently really, but Harrison will be targeted on valuable routes over the middle more with Jacoby Brissett versus the shorter QB. It's a marginal upgrade overall. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are going from the worst to best defense week over week. Arizona is only projected for 19.5 points in Seattle, who has a healthy secondary with a breakout 2nd-round S emerging. Only 4 WRs have hit 70+ yards against them this entire season, though Marv was one of them in Week 4 (6-66-1 on 10 targets).
Alec Pierce - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR29 on WR24 usage this month, coming off a season-high 16.8 expected half PPR points in the first game the Colts were trailing in. Indianapolis is actually 4th in neutral pass rate, so if they aren't blowing teams out in the 2nd half, they have an underrated amount of targets up for grabs. Enter Pierce. He's one of the best deep threats in the league, but Pierce is adding breaking routes to his tree now, too. He was a menace on out routes last week for example. The Colts are projected for the 3rd-most points this week (27.5) against the Falcons. Don't expect A.J. Terrell to shadow either Pierce or Pittman.
Chris Olave - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 5.0 expected half PPR points, which isn't too surprising with Tyler Shough making his debut against the Rams. Unfortunately, the Saints lost two other linemen, including former 1st-rounder RT Taliese Fuaga. The Saints are 2nd-to-last in projected points. I'm very concerned about the efficiency of his targets, but Olave's competition for looks drops from Rashid Shaheed to Devaughn Vele and Brandin Cooks. Let's call it all a wash or slight loss.
Jauan Jennings - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's had 9.3 expected half PPR points in 3-straight games after being on the injury report for the entire beginning of the season. Last week and now? Unlisted on the practice report. The 49ers' defense is hallowed out, so more dropbacks are on the table against the Rams at home. Jennings won't compete with Ricky Pearsall this week either. The Rams despite their pass rush and scheme has allowed the 10th most receiving yards to WRs this year because of game script.
Quentin Johnston - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's averaging 12.3 half PPR points on 10.1 expected half PPR points this season, but things have soured a bit with Oronde Gadsden breaking out and Ladd McConkey making more plays. Johnston is still a near full-time route runner, however, so spike weeks are firmly still on the table. The hard part will be Johnston's downfield skillset diminishing without LT Joe Alt affording Justin Herbert the time to throw them. Fortunately for this week, Johnston catches a Steelers defense going through it with their safety group. They've allowed the most receptions to WRs.
Keenan Allen - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR32 on WR26 usage this month in a brand new role with rookie TE Oronde Gadsden breaking out. Allen is running a route on about half of the dropbacks and only playing in 3-WR sets as the slot, with 2nd-round rookie WR Tre Harris playing in 1-WR sets to run block and get his feet wet. That's not a great role, but Allen is playing well on tape still and this is a matchup that is advantageous to him. The Chargers without LT Joe Alt may be forced into more dropbacks (and more quick dropbacks at that). The Steelers, despite already having their bye, has allowed the most WR receptions. That's 16.1 per game.
Tetairoa McMillan - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR26 on WR32 usage this month. McMillan needs negative game scripts to rack up receptions because the Panthers are 31st in neutral pass rate this month. They simply feen for running the ball to hide their QB and lean into Rico Dowdle. Whenever targeted, the rookie has shined. The weekly floor is hard to establish in this set up. The Panthers are 5.5-point favorites against the Saints. Hopefully he can score a touchdown with a league-average team total (22.5 points).
Wan'Dale Robinson - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR31 usage this month.
Stefon Diggs - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR38 on WR50 usage this month. Waiting on Boutte news.
Khalil Shakir - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR28 on WR55 usage this month, and this is an eruption spot.
Parker Washington
The Jaguars are 1st in WR usage this month, which has meant Parker is quietly the WR17 in usage per game right now. He had 12.5 expected half PPR points last week without Brian Thomas (ankle) and Travis Hunter (knee). He's the reliable slot option for an offense that has historically peppered that position, and Jakobi Meyers will only play outside coming off a short week in a brand new offense. By playing in the slot, Washington will largely dodge CB1 Derek Stingley.
Tez Johnson - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR39 usage this month but his last two games without Evans and Godwin have ended with 12.7 and 8.1 expected half PPR points. That'll be the case here. In October, Johnson has a 20% targets per route without those two veterans and has been a near full-time player with Sterling Shepard sticking in the slot only. Johnson has a boom-bust downfield role but has been given a couple manufactured touches, too. With the Buccaneers projected for 25.5 points, Johnson is a quality throw of the dart.
Deebo Samuel
He's the WR78 on WR46 usage this month, while battling with his own injury and watching the environment around him fully collapse. In 4 games without McLaurin, Samuel is averaging 10.5 expected half PPR points, but he won't be as efficient without Jayden Daniels either. The good news is volume should be on his side here with Washington entering Detroit as 8-point dogs in a dome environment. The Lions also play a lot of man coverage, which typically means more targets to WRs compared to zone coverages. Detroit is 8th-worst against fantasy WRs on the season, though the defense is looking better now.
Troy Franklin - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR25 on WR13 usage this month, taking advantage of some easier matchups over that span. Franklin has another one here with the Raiders' zone defense covering nobody. That said, Franklin's targets per route drops from 31% to 19% going from man to zone coverage. That's a trend that's position wide, too. Receivers get targeted more against man, while RBs get a bump against zone.
Jameson Williams - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR30 on WR56 usage this month and over the course of the season, he's hit over 9.0 expected half PPR points in just one game. It's all about the explosive play for him, and even when he gets them, Jamo maxes out as a fantasy WR2 usually. Luckily, this is an eruption spot against the Commanders, who just placed outside CB1 Marshon Lattimore on IR. They're starting a rookie as the CB2, too.
Jordan Addison - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR21 on WR25 usage this month, and it's starting to tank a bit. Over the last two weeks, Addison has had 6.2 and 7.2 expected half PPR points. That's WR57 usage if it holds with JJ McCarthy, who had a gutsy win and some nice throws but also struggled with accuracy and was playing erratically for half of his reps. Addison faces a legit battle with CBs Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey.
DJ Moore - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR33 usage this month.
Josh Downs - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR17 on WR28 usage this month.
Tre Tucker - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Raiders are passing like crazy and majoring in 2-WR sets without Jakobi Meyers to compete with. This is an underrated spot for Tucker, who has made some plays across the field this year. It'll be an uphill battle this week with the lowest team total of the week while playing in Denver. At least CB1 Patrick Surtain is out.
Rashid Shaheed - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Unlike other offseason acquisitions, it wouldn't be a surprise if Shaheed is a full-time player right away because he played in this OC Klint Kubiak offense just last year. Shaheed faces elite target competition with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but Darnold has been the best downfield thrower for 2-straight seasons and Shaheed is one of the very best downfield receivers in the NFL. There won't be a ton of volume most likely, but his per-target efficiency will be among the very best in the NFL for the rest of the year. He's a great dart throw during bye weeks.
Jakobi Meyers
Darius Slayton - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
DeMario Douglas - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne
Rashod Bateman - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Keon Coleman - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Christian Watson - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Matthew Golden
Darnell Mooney - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Xavier Legette
Olamide Zaccheaus
Week 10 TE Rankings
Brock Bowers - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Did you see last week? Bowers excelled on 82% snaps with the Raiders giving up on their WRs and instead leaning fully into 2-TE sets with Bowers as a "WR" more than a "TE". The clear negative is it's still the Raiders, who are projected for the fewest points of the week in Denver. The Broncos have only allowed Tyler Warren (12.4) to more than 8.7 half PPR points this year.
Trey McBride - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It'll be Jacoby Brissett for the next 4 weeks at least, and McBride has averaged 15.6 half PPR on 17.2 expected half PPR points with him. The matchup will be difficult with Seahawks 2nd-round S Nick Emmanwori breaking out, but if the Cardinals trail, McBride is peppered.
Oronde Gadsden - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Steelers are 3rd-worst against fantasy TEs, with Tucker Kraft (29.8 half PPR), Noah Fant (12.4), Harold Fannin (11.6), and Hunter Henry (25.0) all popping off. Gadsden would benefit from a quick-hitting approach against this edge rush group with the Chargers missing LT Joe Alt. Gadsden is the TE5 on TE4 usage this month. It's been all real stuff.
Sam LaPorta - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Lions are 2nd in projected points (29.5), and the Commanders are 6th-worst against fantasy TEs (because Bobby Wagner). LaPorta is the TE7 on TE21 usage this month.
George Kittle
The 49ers are 4.5-point dogs, and whenever they're actually trailing, Kittle has the opportunity to go nuts. That's been more hit-and-miss recently, especially against the Rams. He's been held to under 62 yards in 6-straight games against them since 2021. He's only the TE30 on TE29 usage this month since returning. Whenever I've been down on Kittle, he tends to break out.
Tyler Warren - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE10 on TE3 usage this month on an underrated pass-heavy Colts offense that finally trailed last week. In neutral situations, Warren is featured in fun ways off play action, giving him plenty of YAC opportunities. The Colts are 3rd in projected points this week (27.5) against a Falcons unit that has been worse recently but is the best unit against fantasy TEs (4.0 half PPR per game). In fact, only 1 TE has broken 22 receiving yards against them. Some of that can be explained by the funkiness of the Falcons' pressure looks pre-snap.
Dalton Kincaid - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bills are 1st in projected points, and Kincaid is the TE1 per route among healthy qualifiers now. This month, he's the TE2 on TE18 usage, coming off another strong game with a man-coverage TD and another zone-coverage YAC explosive. If James Cook is banged up, there could be a couple more passes in neutral situations. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 5th-worst against fantasy TEs and just sent away Jaelan Phillips to the Eagles at the deadline. Earlier this year, Kincaid had a 5-66-1 receiving line against them.
Dallas Goedert
He's the TE6 on TE9 usage this month, as a goal-line alternate. It'll be harder to get those opportunities with the Eagles only projected for 21.0 points against the Packers, but Goedert also is rarely in negative game scripts and Green Bay is slight favorites. More than half of Goedert's career receptions have actually came when trailing, which is impressive because the Eagles are rarely trailing.
Cade Otton - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field since 2024, Otton has a solid 20% targets per route and 1.5 yards per route. Those are fringe TE1 numbers, and the Bucs are projected for 25.5 points at home against a pass-funnel Patriots defense that shuts down the run and has a strong CB1 in Christian Gonzalez. In theory, they're softest against throws to TEs. In fact, 6 TEs have scored at least 9.8 half PPR points against them. It'll be helpful for Otton's routes if RT Luke Goedeke can be active off IR here.
Colston Loveland - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
You can't put the cat back in the bag (just ask me whenever I have to take Nani to the damn vet), and Loveland's breakout game last week was just that. Even if Cole Kmet returns from concussion protocol, Loveland should be a full-time player. He had an elite 3x1 backside isolated receiving slant route TD before he had the seam-route game winner agains the pitiful Bengals. Loveland was an amazing prospect in my opinion.
Update: Cole Kmet (concussion) was limited on Wednesday.
Harold Fannin
In 3 games with Dillon Gabriel and David Njoku healthy, Fannin is averaging 9.6 expected half PPR points. Before the bye, he ran a route on 71% of dropbacks despite Njoku suiting up. He gets the Post Bye Rookie Bump here, though he's already in a bigger-than-expected role. The Jets traded away their two best players and benched a previously-solid LB. It's a soft matchup.
Kyle Pitts - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 4 games with Drake London and Darnell Mooney healthy, Pitts is averaging 8.7 expected half PPR points, which is fringe TE1 usage. Last week, he ran a route on 38-of-42 dropbacks. That's rare for the position. The hard part is the Falcons are only projected for 21.0 points on the road against a DC that can spook inexperienced QBs like Michael Penix.
Mark Andrews - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Since the beginning of 2024, Andrews is the TE12 per game on TE25 usage, absolutely running pure with TDs whenever Lamar Jackson has been healthy. That's the case here. He ran a route on 63% dropbacks last week while rotating with Isiah Likely (48%).
David Njoku
He's the TE19 on TE13 usage this month and is averaging 10.1 expected half PPR points with Dillon Gabriel consistently checking the ball down. The Jets traded away their two best players and benched a previously-solid LB. It's a soft matchup, so it comes down to playing time. Njoku was at 59% routes in Week 8 before the bye while coming back from injury. That's likely his floor, even with the Post Bye Rookie Bump coming for Harold Fannin Jr.
Hunter Henry - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's dropped to the TE29 on TE39 usage this month, even though the offense keeps balling out. Henry still ran a route on 73% of dropbacks last week, so I'm sticking with an upside TE2 ranking here, especially without Rhamondre Stevenson at RB and a pass-funnel defense versus Tampa Bay. 4 TEs have had 50+ yards against the Bucs this year, including Juwan Johnson just last week. No Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) should help, too.
Luke Musgrave - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Without Tucker Kraft on the field last week, Musgrave ran a route on 18-of-21 dropbacks. That's enough to cook. The former 2nd-rounder needed development time and was clearly worse than Kraft, but that's a tough bar to clear and he's had time to iron out some early-career struggles. I can see a post-hype sleeper emerging here. The Packers are projected for 23.5 points at home against the Eagles' great slot and linebacker duo.
Theo Johnson - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE20 on TE25 usage, getting lucky on a long TD that wasn't targeted to him and then dropping a ludicrous amount of passes otherwise. Johnson is big and a full-time player without target competition at least.
Zach Ertz
In 3 games with Marcus Mariota, Ertz has had 5.1, 6.4, and 3.9 expected half PPR points. His average with Jayden Daniels was 7.2, so this is a downgrade obviously. Meanwhile, Terry McLaurin (quad) won't play, so there is less target competition. In 5 games without him, Ertz is at 6.8 expected half PPR points. No matter how we slice it, Ertz is a fantasy TE2 now.
Juwan Johnson
He's the TE22 on TE23 usage this month, but that was with Rashid Shaheed. Unfortunately, the Saints are projected for 17.0 points on the road with Taysom Hill increasingly involved in high-leverage situations. Johnson is averaging 6.9 expected half PPR points in the 5 games with Taysom.
Isaiah Likely
He ran a route on 48% dropbacks last week with Lamar Jackson back.
T.J. Hockenson - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Since the beginning of last year, Hockenson is the TE27 per game.
Mason Taylor
The rookie is only averaging 5.9 expected half PPR points with Garrett Wilson, who is due back this week.
Evan Engram - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz
AJ Barner
Week 10 QB Rankings
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Drake Maye
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Jaxson Dart
Bo Nix
Baker Mayfield
Caleb Williams
Daniel Jones
Jared Goff
Matthew Stafford
Sam Darnold
Jordan Love
J.J. McCarthy
Marcus Mariota
Justin Fields
Aaron Rodgers
Jacoby Brissett
Michael Penix
Mac Jones
Bryce Young
Tua Tagovailoa
Trevor Lawrence
Geno Smith
Dillon Gabriel
Tyler Shough
Davis Mills
Week 10 Fantasy Defenses
The defenses of the week are the Browns, Broncos, Lions, Seahawks, and Jaguars with honorable mentions to the Texans, Packers, Ravens, and Bills.