Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 10 Recap
Week 11 RB Rankings
Christian McCaffrey - 129.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB1 overall usage this month, but Brian Robinson has sprinkled in slightly more recently as a run-game spark. CMC is still posting fantasy WR1 numbers as a receiver, and the 49ers are projected for 25.75 points against the Cardinals, who might not have 1st-round DT Walter Nolen again.
De'Von Achane - 122.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's averaging 18.7 expected half PPR points in the games following that weather-based game against the Browns. He hit two home runs between the tackles and maintains elite speed on plays to the perimeter. The Commanders are extremely slow up the spine, just ask Jahmyr Gibbs (36.7 half PPR), D'Andre Swift (24.5), or Bijan Robinson (26.1) from this year.
Josh Jacobs - 102.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB8 on RB8 usage this month, with a million scores since arriving to Green Bay. The offense feels stuck with an overrated OL (Elgton Jenkins was just placed on IR), but this is an eruption spot vs. the Giants, who are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs on 5.8 YPC. The issues in Green Bay haven't effected Jacobs in fantasy. He has averaged 19.4 half PPR points in 5 games since the bye and he looks healthier now.
Rico Dowdle - 108.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot vs. the Falcons, who are light in the shorts. Dowdle has 18.6 expected half PPR points in his 4 starts, on the No. 30 neutral pass rate. Their interior OL has been dominant on the ground, and the Falcons are allowing 117 rushing yards per game. Despite a below-average 19.5 team total, Dowdle looks ready for a big one.
James Cook - 97.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB5 on RB14 usage this month, and nothing has really changed aside from a couple of wonky game scripts. Cook may be given a few more explosive chances without mismatch weapon Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) being available. Buffalo is 4th in projected points at home against the pass-funnel Bucs, who have been giving up explosives to RBs as a receiver even if they are shutting down carries. Their 52 receiving YPG to RBs is the most in the NFL.
Bijan Robinson - 110.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's just the RB20 on RB16 usage this month, losing goal-line carries to the thicccccer Tyler Allgeier and all-around explosives with the Falcons' QB play devolving. The Falcons need to have their OGs healthy, too. Hopefully the Panthers are a soft enough opponent to correct their obvious issues, as Atlanta is only projected for 23.0 points at home. Bijan had 112 scoreless yards against them in a 30-0 loss in Week 3.
Javonte Williams
In 5 games with CeeDee Lamb, Williams is averaging 15.5 expected half PPR points, which is RB5 overall usage. The OL is back to being healthy, and this is a good coaching staff who had the bye week to sort things out. Williams catches a really struggling Raiders team on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys are 3rd in projected points (26.75).
Jaylen Warren - 90.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot vs. the Bengals, who have allowed 29.8 half PPR points per game to RBs, 5.1 more than the 2nd-worst defense. Re-read that sentence again. Warren left in last week's 4th quarter, but before that was the lead back with Kaleb Johnson and Kenny Gainwell only rotating in around him. Warren benefits from major positive game script, and the Steelers are projected to win by 5.5 points here, so odds are fair to beat his RB17 on RB22 usage rankings from this past month.
Saquon Barkley - 93.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB10 on RB17 usage this month, and the Eagles had plenty of run-game issues without C Cam Jurgens and partly RT Lane Johnson last week. The Lions are 4th-best against fantasy RBs, even better than the Packers, while only allowing 72 rushing YPG on the fewest carries allowed.
Derrick Henry - 83.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB16 on RB7 usage this month, picking up just 9.9 half PPR points on 15.0 expected points last week with Lamar Jackson back. Henry unfortunately lost a random goal-line carry to Justice Hill (rare), but Henry has been slightly worse on film when trying to bounce things this year. He still is a pain in the ass to tackle and has great straight-line speed, but the other parts seem a bit weaker. Henry needs a touchdown here against the Browns, who are 3rd-best against fantasy RBs with a 3.7 YPC allowed. They've yet to allow a 100-yard rusher yet.
Ashton Jeanty - 80.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB22 on RB24 usage this month, despite being a bellcow for most of those games. This is largely an OL stat, but the Raiders are averaging -0.28 EPA per carry right now. No other team is even close to as being as bad as that. The Cowboys are an easy matchup per the spreadsheets (2nd worst against fantasy RBs), but the spreadsheets don't know star DT Quinnen Williams is now on the team and will be facing a backup RG with Jackson Powers-Johnson now on IR.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 88.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's RB2 on RB23 usage this month, and last week with Dan Campbell calling plays again, Gibbs rotated drives as the starter. His role isn't quite as good as the other fantasy RB1s, and the Lions are projected well below their typical total this week against the Eagles at just 22.0 points. Philly is always good up front, but they just added Jaelan Phillips at the deadline, signed ye ole Brandon Graham, and returned Nolan Smith from injury just last week. Gibbs will also have a backup guard attempting to block All Pro DT Jalen Carter and contract-year Jordan Davis. It's the worst spot Gibbs has been in recently. And still, he's Jahymr Gibbs.
TreVeyon Henderson - 102.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It'll come down to if Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) or Terrell Jennings (knee) can suit up. Based on the video I saw from them on Tuesday and their opponent this week, I'm guessing they will miss. Without them, Henderson will get more between-tackles carries and the two-minute drill in addition to the sudden influx of pitches and stretch runs towards the perimeter. Without out both last week, Henderson handled 12.5 expected half PPR points with two long runs showcasing his straight-line speed. The Patriots are in an elite spot this week with a massive 27.75-point team total against the Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner less Jets, so now is not the time to nitpick any contact balance, hesitancy, and pass protection concerns from the first half of his rookie year.
Chase Brown - 78.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It really comes down to Samaje Perine's ankle (DNP Wednesday). Without him before the bye, Brown went nuts on a season-high 22.1 expected half PPR points. Over the past month with Joe Flacco, Brown is the RB9 on RB4 overall usage thanks to some wild shoutouts. The Browns are only projected for 22.5 points in Pittsburgh here. They've been getting more out of 1st-round DT Derrick Harmon recently.
Travis Etienne - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB23 on RB2 usage this month, after another monster workload last week when the Jaguars went to a 36% neutral pass rate sans their top-3 pass-catchers. Etienne has seen some wild card carries at the goal line and showed explosive ability at times, too. The Jaguars are rough up front and at QB right now, so their team total is only at 20.25 points at home against the Chargers. Los Angeles is typically light in the box and has allowed a really high 4.9 YPC to RBs.
Kyren Williams - 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB12 on RB11 usage this month, while coming out of the bye in a drive-by-drive rotation with Blake Corum. That's been fine, however. Williams is playing better on fewer touches, and the Rams are the 4th in RB usage with MVP-caliber play at QB. A very difficult matchup with the Seahawks awaits here. They've allowed just 3.4 YPC this year.
Aaron Jones - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The veteran is averaging 8.9 expected half PPR points in his 4 healthy games, 3 of which came with J.J. McCarthy at QB. Jones has separated from Jordan Mason since his injuries, however, even handling the goal line opportunity last week en route to 11.6 expected half PPR points. That separation is key because the Vikings are in a great spot here. Their 25.75-point team total while hosting the Bears is something to lean into, and Chicago has allowed 4.9 YPC to RBs this year and have multiple starters on IR or the injury report.
Quinshon Judkins - 82.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Since Week 3 as the starter, Judkins is averaging 14.7 half PPR points on 15.0 expected half PPR points (RB10 usage) in healthy games. He keeps making nice plays on tape behind a horrific OL with a backup-level QB, but the Browns are back to 15.75 implied points against the Ravens this week and he loses pass-game snaps to Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford if they are down heavy early. Baltimore hasn't allowed 70 rushing yards to a RB since Week 3 now that they are healthier.
Breece Hall - 78.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the entire offense and looks explosive again, but the Jets are last in projected points (15.25) against a Patriots defense that is allowing 57.5 rushing yards to RBs this season, easily the best in the NFL. Only Bijan Robinson (13.6 half PPR points) has reached more than 11 points since Week 3 against them. Mike Vrabel could end Justin Fields' starting career here.
D'Andre Swift
He's the RB11 on RB6 usage this month, popping back up for 15.1 expected half PPR points last week after rotating drives in the first half. Swift is making enough plays to cover his warts, and the Bears are 2nd in RB usage this month so there's enough room for him to lose 33% work. The Vikings is a difficult matchup for Swift, however. They'll put opposing RBs into pass protection hell, and that's where Swift has been brutal this year. Over the past two weeks with EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel back, Minnesota has largely shut down the Lions' and Ravens' RBs. Chicago projects for a league-average 22.75 points.
Woody Marks - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was an overtaking. Marks had a season-high 16.3 expected half PPR points, handled both goal-line opportunities, and played almost every snap aside from when he momentarily exited with an ankle injury. Marks is a good athlete and in-development decision-maker, who is growing with a hit-and-miss offense. Marks won't be left out of game scripts as the pass-game back, so his floor is becoming sturdier. The Texans should have CJ Stroud back and project for 22.75 points against the Titans. We'll see if they get All Pro DT Jeffery Simmons back for it.
Kimani Vidal - 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB25 on RB12 usage this month, while averaging 13.3 half PPR points on 13.5 expected half PPR points as the starter. There's nobody behind him threatening, but the OL is in a bleak spot without LT Joe Alt right now, so he'll need to be an effective receiver and finish off his limited short-yardage carries. The Chargers face a pass-funnel Jaguars defense on the road. Offenses facing Jacksonville have passed the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations this year.
RJ Harvey - 64.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
J.K. Dobbins (foot) is an IR candidate, leaving the 2nd-round rookie competing with Jaleel McLaughlin on early downs and Tyler Badie on passing downs. All 3 are likely to play, with Harvey handling the most touches behind a quality OL. Harvey was able to handle big workloads in college, so a mini bellcow role can't be ruled out. At the minimum, Harvey should see 8-12 carries with a handful of manufactured receptions now. The Broncos offense is untrustworthy, especially against the Chiefs with a 20.0-point team total. Kansas City is 6th-best against fantasy RBs this year because their offense usually has the ball for more than half the game.
Kareem Hunt - 51.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB14 on RB20 usage this month, and Isiah Pacheco isn't expected to play this week (and perhaps beyond). Hunt was a viable RB2 last year as the lead back on a worse version of the Chiefs, who are now projected for 24.0 points despite playing in Denver. The Broncos are a very tough draw, however. They've only allowed 3.8 YPC to RBs. ... Pay attention to the OL health for the Chiefs have they limped to the finish line before their bye week.
Rachaad White
Teams facing the Bills have ran the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations. The reason for that is the Bills are allowing 5.4 YPC to RBs, and star DT Ed Oliver is on IR. It's also helpful that if the Bills offense does explode, White will be a check down option as the clear-cut leader on passing downs. Since the bye week, White is losing some carries to Sean Tucker, but even in the last two weeks, he's at 13.2 and 9.2 expected half PPR points as a low-end RB2. It's no longer a sure-thing that White will handle the goal line carries.
Beyond this week, there was a report that the team doesn't know if Bucky Irving is able to withstand hits on his shoulder. Didn't love the sound of that one.
Emari Demercado
The Cardinals offense should look a lot better against the 49ers' banged-up defense compared to the Seahawks in Seattle, and there could be another reshuffling at RB here. In garbage time last week, Knight was rolled up on with what looks like an ankle injury. Demercado was the one rotating in with Knight before the injury, and Michael Carter only played the final drive in complete garbage time. Demercado is averaging 9.0 YPC after another explosive run late last week, while Carter has been released and demoted since the bye. In those two games, Demercado has 8.9 and 9.6 expected half PPR points as a baseline, but the Cardinals have 22.6 expected points per game to their RB group as a hole this month.
David Montgomery - 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB31 on RB26 usage this month. Last week with Dan Campbell, the Lions rotated drives between Gibbs and Monty with fairly few exceptions. That led to 10.2 expected half PPR points, which is right in line with his season-long average. More notable for Week 11, the Lions only project for 22.0 points against the Eagles, who have legit edge rushers now, and a backup LG will be tasked with DTs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. It's a much tougher task.
Kenneth Walker - 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB36 on RB27 usage this month, and George Holani came in for a 9-yard TD last week in the first half. It's an unpredictable committee at this point, and the details of how they're used changes each week. Walker is capable of explosives but also needs them to pay off as a FLEX play. The Seahawks aren't likely to have the big leads they've enjoyed all year against the Rams' DL this week, and Walker isn't a favorite for a touchdown with a team total down at 22.75 points. We can just hope he has one of his signature moments against the best defense versus fantasy RBs. They've allowed 1 rushing TD to RBs this entire season.
Tyrone Tracy - 66.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 9.1 expected half PPR points, but Tracy still lost valuable work to Devin Singletary, especially in the red zone. In fact, all 5 plays inside the 10-yard line last week came with Singletary on the field. It'll be difficult for Tracy to stockpile enough explosives to make up for the lack of a goal-line role against the Packers.
Zach Charbonnet - 41.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB18 on RB31 usage this month. As noted with Kenneth Walker, the Rams have allowed 1 rushing TD to RBs this entire season, en route to the best defense against fantasy RBs. Hopefully that 9-yard George Holani TD run from 9 yards out last week was a fluke.
Tyler Allgeier
Last week was his 4th game with over 10.0 half PPR points, and he's clearing Bijan Robinson on inside the 10-yard line carries, 13-5. The Falcons project for 23.0 points while hosting the Panthers.
Devin Singletary
The last two games have equalled 8.6 and 11.6 expected half PPR points. Singletary has played every snap inside the 10-yard line in both contests, and if Jaxson Dart (concussion) is out, Singletary has better odds of entering the end zone. The Giants are only projected for 18.25 points as hosts to the Packers here, so keep expectations in check.
Tyjae Spears - 47.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB29 on RB36 usage this month, averaging 8.0 expected half PPR points with Tony Pollard over his last 4 games. This was the split before the bye week, noting the Titans are only projected for just 15.75 points against the damn Texans.
Sean Tucker
The Bucs are mixing in him more after Rachaad White has plateud as the bellcow. He had 11.5 expected half PPR points in the game before the bye and then had just 5.9 expected half PPR points last week in a difficult spot. He played well, though. Tucker could takeover the goal-line carries now and has enough juice for a big play. His strengths line up with the Bills' obvious weakness of stopping the run. This is the first time I'm projecting Tucker for real work as a deep-league dart throw.
Blake Corum
He's still rotating drives and playing fine ball on tape. The Seahawks present a stiffer test, but Corum is live for a touchdown and 5-10 touches as a deep-league dart throw.
Zonovan Knight - 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In garbage time last week, Knight was rolled up on, so it could be an ankle injury coming up here. If so, Demercado has been so good compared to Michael Carter that I'd just lean into Demercado in rankings. He's the RB42 on RB13 usage this month, splitting snaps with Emari Demercado. Knight is the featured back in short-yardage, while Demercado is more explosive and offers more pass-game work. Even in terrible game script last week in an impossible game in Seattle, Knight got plenty of run in the first half. Things should be cleaner here with a solid 22.75-point team total back at home against a 49ers defense missing 4 starters up front. He's been above 10.9 expected half PPR points in 4-straight games (though he's been very inefficient for most of the year).
Tony Pollard - 55.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 4 games with Tyjae Spears fully healthy, Pollard is averaging 8.6 expected half PPR points. Things could lean more towards Spears after the bye, however, and the Titans are projected for just 15.75 points against the Texans.
Jordan Mason
He had 5.3 expected half PPR points with Aaron Jones back and dominating work.
Kyle Monangai
With D'Andre Swift back last week, Monangai rotated drives in the first half before Swift mostly took over in the second half. It's a hot-hand approach with Swift gathering the tiebreaker. Monangai has 7.0 expected half PPR points in his last 4 games with Swift healthy, as a deep-league dart throw only. The matchup this week is challenging, as the Vikings typically put a lot of pressure on the RBs in pass protection. Both have largely struggled there, so I'm worried about their overall involvement.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
The Commanders are 2.5-point dogs to the Dolphins, who have improved their defense recently despite losing EDGE Jaelan Phillips at the deadline. More importantly, Bill is no longer the clear lead back on early downs with Chris Rodriguez playing first and handling the first-half goal-line opportunity just last week. Because of the committee and the Commanders' suddenly weak offense, it's been 4 weeks since a Washington RB has reached 9.0 expected half PPR points. Bill is the RB60 on RB40 usage during that stretch.
Week 11 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 95.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR3 on WR1 usage this month, and the Steelers are 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs. Remember that 16-161-1 game with 23 targets? Yuppppp, Pittsburgh. They are the only defense to allow 1,000 receiving yards in man coverage this year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 100.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR4 on WR14 usage this month. It's been like that all season, especially against zone coverage where he's averaging 4.7 yards per route! We've pretty much never have seen that before. The Rams defense is 6th in zone snaps this year and aren't great at corner. We haven't see the Seahawks in negative scripts this year either, and that's possible given the state of the Rams' offense. More volume is possible.
CeeDee Lamb - 85.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR11 on WR10 usage this month, but in his 5 healthy games this year, Lamb is averaging 15.4 expected half PPR points, which is WR6 usage. He should now be close to fully healthy after the bye week, and it's a great road matchup in Vegas. The Cowboys are 3rd in projected points (26.75), and the Raiders have allowed 12.5+ half PPR points to similar-styled receivers to Lamb in their last 3 games; Troy Franklin, Parker Washington, and Rashee Rice. Lamb is on another planet talent-wise than them.
Puka Nacua - 86.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR8 on WR21 usage this month, battling with various injuries. It's the worst stint for him in a long while. Part of that is he's being subbed out for these 3-TE looks, where Davante Adams is the isolated receiver. We'll see if they do that every week, but it is very effective as a changeup for the Rams' offense. This week's challenge is just the emerging Seahawks elite defense. Over the past 3 games, Seattle's defense has allowed just 17.0 half PPR points per game to fantasy WRs. The Rams are 5th in projected points (25.75), which is slightly lower than their 28.0 PPG average this year.
Jaylen Waddle - 74.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR19 on WR35 usage this month, but in the 5 games without Tyreek Hill and not in Cleveland, Waddle is averaging 15.8 half PPR points. He's been balling. This week, the Dolphins are 8th in projected points (25.0), and the Commanders just placed CB1 Marshon Lattimore and CB2 Trey Amos on IR. They were already 2nd-worst against fantasy WRs. The spine of the defense is also very slow to stop these play-action passes over the middle, too. Waddle is in for a huge game here.
Drake London - 77.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR2 on WR4 usage this month and has looked like a sure-fire top-10 WR on tape. Panthers CB1 Jaycee Horn is having a good season, but London has gotten the best of them recently with 5-55-0, 10-187-2, and 6-74-1 receiving lines.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 77.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR3 usage this month, as the most consistent fantasy WR1 for years. This matchup with SCB Cooper DeJean and the emergence of this Eagles pass rush should lower expectations of the entire offense, but when things get tight, St. Brown is their answer.
Justin Jefferson - 72.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Buckle up. Jefferson is the WR28 on WR7 usage this month, but in 4 games with J.J. McCarthy, he's averaging a career-low 10.5 half PPR points per game. The QB is simply struggling with his accuracy, which stems from not fully grasping what he's seeing. He's at least heaving opportunities to him when he panics, but the film is the film. Fortunately for Jefferson and company, the Bears are on deck. They've allowed the 3rd-most yards in man coverage this year (where Jefferson shreds) and are 5th-worst against fantasy WRs in total. They're missing CB1 Jaylon Johnson and SCB Kyler Gordon, plus others in the box. The Vikings are 7th in projected points (25.5) this week because of the matchup, so this will be amongst his best shots of hitting a ceiling in a mediocre offense. It'll be a very long week if the Vikings can't move the ball here.
Davante Adams - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR1 on WR9 usage this month, easily pacing the NFL in inside the 10-yard line targets. The Rams are 5th in projected points (25.75), even against the Seahawks who are arguably worst on defense at outside CB. Adams is also staying in 1-WR sets when the Rams go heavy, so there are times where he's one of the few real route runners on pass plays.
Rashee Rice - 75.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR5 on WR5 usage this month, dominating against zone coverage in particular. The Chiefs are "only" projected for 24.0 points in Denver, who typically play more man coverage than most. More importantly than those splits is the general strength of the Broncos defense. They're the best at stopping fantasy WRs, only allowing DeVonta Smith and Keenan Allen to post more than 12.5 half PPR points all year.
Emeka Egbuka - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR3 usage this month, and it's likely no Chris Godwin (leg) and Mike Evans (IR) again. Ebguka is the pass game right now, and the Bucs are 5.5-point dogs in Buffalo. That defense is susceptible to the ground and best at CB, but it's also a game with big shoutout potential now that Baker Mayfield has his above-average RT back in the mix. On top of that, opposing WR1s have at least 13.4 half PPR points in 5-straight games.
Ladd McConkey - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR13 on WR13 usage this month, and last week without LT Joe Alt played into McConkey's skill set. The Chargers had a wild 70% neutral pass rate and an extremely low time to throw. They added more screens and quick throws than usual, something McConkey can be a part of. On film, Ladd was crossing defenders up out of the slot, and that's exactly where teams chose to target when facing the Jaguars. In fact, opponents pass the ball at the highest rate against Jacksonville.
Nico Collins - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR2 usage this month, coming off a season-high 26.8 expected half PPR points with Davis Mills in comeback mode. Among backups, Mills is experienced with functional arm talent and an eye for his No. 1. Collins has an easy matchup against a Titans defense missing CB1 and SCB1. They've particularly struggling against X-receiver types like Quentin Johnston (13.3 half PPR), Michael Pittman (19.5), Kayshon Boutte (12.5), Marvin Harrison (11.8), Michael Pittman again (16.3), Davante Adams (19.6), Puka Nacua (23.6), and Courtland Sutton (15.1).
George Pickens - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR25 on WR22 usage this month, and in 5 games with CeeDee Lamb (in some difficult matchups), Pickens is at 10.8 expected half PPR points (WR20 usage). That feels closer to a below-average outcome than the median case, especially given this matchup. The Cowboys are 3rd in projected points (26.75) in a total eruption spot against a vanilla Raiders defense. There is certainly room for both WRs based on their pace and play volume:
Tee Higgins - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR20 usage this month, and the Steelers are 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs. Against them earlier this month in Flacco's Bengals debut, the Bengals came out with a 66% neutral pass rate (which is extremely high).
Stefon Diggs - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR25 on WR34 usage this month, but Kayshon Boutte is out and the Patriots are 1st in projected points (28.0) this week. The Jets lost their two best defensive players at the trade deadline and have leaned into man coverage at the 8th-highest rate. Against man, Diggs is averaging 2.6 yards per route. This is a spike week matchup.
Rome Odunze - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR19 usage this month, with more big plays coming back from penalty or drops. Odunze remains the top target against man coverage, and the Vikings have allowed 6 WRs to hit 10+ half PPR points over their last 4 games. Odunze did the same in Week 1 when he posted a 6-37-1 receiving line on a team-high 9 targets. A few of those were at the line of scrimmage to calm things down against this funky defense.
A.J. Brown - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR12 on WR60 usage this month, while only averaging 9.3 half PPR points on 8.9 expected points the entire year. He's not quite the same player coming out of his breaks this year, and his effort isn't quite as great as it was earlier on. More importantly, Brown isn't targeted versus zone and catches a lot of extra safety on his side of the ball. It's not a recipe for consistency. Brown can take a deep ball to the house at any moment, but he is the WR30 per game over the last 365 days.
All that said, this is the format that Brown balls in. The Lions play a lot of man coverage, and Brown's per-route targets nearly double against man coverage versus zone coverage. The Lions also don't have an elite CB1, so there should be opportunities here.
DeVonta Smith - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR7 on WR18 usage this month, and over the past 365 days, Smith is the WR21 and has played like a top-10 NFL WR. Defenses are still shading safety help towards the AJB side more times than not, so Smith is ripe for explosives even on limited targets. The more the Eagles struggle running the ball, the more obvious it is that they should pass it early or risk being forced into passes in the 4th quarter. Either way, Smith is in better position for consistent production now than before.
DK Metcalf - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR53 on WR31 usage this month, as one of the most inconsistent weekly assets. This should be a spike week with the Steelers 2nd in projected points (27.25), but it's never that easy. The Bengals stink on defense, but their best player by far is CB1 D.J. Turner, who is shutting down WR1s while the rest of the defense skips around. The Steelers don't have a lot of depth at WR but can get into those TE-heavy looks. Hopefully it's not Turner shadowing Metcalf. An X-receiver type hasn't reached 10+ half PPR points since Week 4 against the Bengals, including Metcalf himself in Week 7 (6.5 half PPR points).
Zay Flowers - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR36 usage this month, and in games with Lamar Jackson, Flowers is averaging 11.4 half PPR points on 9.4 expected points. It's really been a yardage ceiling without a touchdown ceiling, and that should continue against the Browns here. The Ravens are only projected for 23.5 points this week, and Flowers hasn't scored a TD against Cleveland in 5 career games. That's 66 yards per game, but CB1 Denzel Ward is playing at his usual level with better LB and DL play around him right now.
Tez Johnson
He's the WR15 on WR28 usage this month as a speed-based scramble drill, screen, and crossing route target in a very productive offense. The Bucs are projected for negative game script as 5.5-point dogs, and Johnson ate in comeback mode last week. Baker Mayfield is the better version of the Jameis Winston years. Anyone can eat. He's above 8.1 expected half PPR points in all 3 games with a starter role.
Jordan Addison - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR29 on WR15 usage this month.
The Vikings are 7th in projected points (25.5).
Khalil Shakir - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR21 on WR38 usage this month.
The Bills are 4th in projected points (26.5).
Parker Washington
He's the WR27 on WR11 usage this month, with 3-straight games above 12.5 expected half PPR points. Washington crossed up Derek Stingley in Cover 1 man coverage on a slant route before his jump ball TD. He's made a lot of plays this year and is the trusted player in the pass game. The Chargers have allowed the fewest yards in man coverage (221), so the entire game is about zone wins. Washington is just fine there with a 1.4 yards per route run.
Romeo Doubs - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR32 on WR16 usage this month.
The Packers are 9th in projected points (24.75).
The Giants have allowed the most targets in man coverage this year.
Deebo Samuel - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR52 on WR33 usage this month.
Tetairoa McMillan - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR40 on WR29 usage this month, but his usage has been slightly worse in the 4 Rico Dowdle starts (10.0 expected half PPR points) compared to without him balling (11.8).
The Falcons have been good against WR1s with A.J. Terrell and FS Jesse Bates over the top, and the Panthers are very likely to run against this light Falcons' front rather than pass the ball.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR35 on WR25 usage this month.
The Giants are 4th-lowest in projected points (17.75) against the Packers.
Jameson Williams - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR20 on WR47 usage this month.
Tre Tucker - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR68 on WR71 usage this month, which is still somehow enough to be in consideration against this Cowboys defense. They've allowed 34.4 half PPR points per game to opposing WRs, by far the most in the NFL. CB1 Trevon Diggs is on IR, and CB2 Daron Bland has been picked on. The Raiders, yes the Raiders, are projected for 23.75 points this week, and Tucker is the only league-average receiver on the roster. Remember that huge week earlier this year? It's possible here.
Courtland Sutton - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR39 on WR39 usage this month.
Quentin Johnston - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR46 on WR46 usage this month.
Xavier Worthy - 46.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR59 on WR40 usage this month, dropping his expected half PPR average from 11.5 to 8.5 with Rashee Rice in the lineup.
Update: He's dealing with a new injury from Thursday's practice.
Jauan Jennings
He's the WR30 on WR24 usage this month, but things are changing here with Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall due back. There is more competition for targets, especially after George Kittle balled out just last week. The good news is the 49ers are 5th in projected points (25.75) against an injured Cardinals defense.
Ricky Pearsall
The 49ers are 5th in projected points (25.75).
Michael Wilson - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) and Zay Jones (achilles) are out. Wilson will be a full-time player and operates as a intermediate target for a more aggressive passer in Jacoby Brissett.
Troy Franklin - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR17 on WR8 usage this month.
DJ Moore - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR23 on WR30 usage this month.
Christian Watson - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR44 on WR67 usage this month.
The Packers are 9th in projected points (24.75).
The Giants have allowed the most targets in man coverage this year.
Keenan Allen - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR34 on WR32 usage this month, extending his streak to 3 games with under 6.5 expected half PPR points while losing snaps to everyone.
Darius Slayton
He's the WR42 on WR53 usage this month.
Good fit for Jameis Winston.
Calvin Austin - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR69 on WR43 usage this month.
The Steelers are 2nd in projected points (27.25).
Jerry Jeudy - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR54 on WR41 usage this month.
Mack Hollins - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Patriots are 1st in projected points (28.0).
Kyle Williams
Rashid Shaheed - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He had a season-low 3.0 expected half PPR points, as a rotational member behind Cooper Kupp. Things could escalate quickly against the Rams here, however.
Cooper Kupp - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Revenge game.
Tyler Lockett - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers
He only had 3.3 expected half PPR points last week and his big play was a coverage bust where he was left wide open.
DeMario Douglas - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Patriots are 1st in projected points (28.0).
Keon Coleman - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR55 on WR68 usage this month.
The Bills are 4th in projected points (26.5).
Darnell Mooney
Malik Washington
Cedric Tillman
Week 11 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 77.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's averaging 19.6 expected half PPR points with Jacoby Brissett, and now Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) is out. The 49ers are trapped with backup LBs.
Brock Bowers - 70.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Including in his injured games with Jakobi Meyers, Bowers is averaging 10.2 expected half PPR points in 6 games this year. The Raiders are impossible to trust, but he is their slot WR and catches the Cowboys at home this week. They'll be trotting out new LB Logan Wilson this week, and he can't run with Bowers.
Oronde Gadsden
He was a full participant in practice (quad bruise) and should have his same role on offense. The Chargers went very pass heavy with plenty of screens and quick passes while struggling to hold up in pass protection without LT Joe Alt. That should funnel to Gadsden for the rest of the year. He's the TE3 on TE5 usage this month if we remove last week's half game. The Chargers have a league-average 23.25-point team total this week against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing the highest neutral pass rate and the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs (15.4 half PPR per game). Just the past two weeks have resulted in 23 receptions to TEs. 23!!!
George Kittle - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 13.7 expected half PPR points for Kittle, who really looked exceptional after the catch. The 49ers are projected for 25.75 points against an injured Cardinals defense that's limping through November. Kittle might have Brock Purdy back, but Mac Jones has been very good in the interim. The bigger news would be the potential return of Ricky Pearsall.
Cade Otton - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 14.0 expected half PPR points, which is no surprise with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out. Since 2024 without both of them on the field, Otton is at 20% targets per route. Even the bad Bucs games result in a bunch of yards, so it's not overly concerning to see a 21.5-point team total in Buffalo here. Otton will see the easier matchup than the WRs against these LBs and SSs.
Jake Ferguson - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 5 games with CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson is averaging 9.7 expected half PPR points. That's still TE1 usage. Dallas is projected for the 4th-most points of the week (26.75) against the Raiders, who have a speed problem in their zone coverage over the middle.
Travis Kelce - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In small samples, Kelce's splits haven't been impacted with Rashee Rice's return. That's 7.8 expected half PPR points without him versus 7.4 with him (TE15 usage). Kelce looks good on tape to me, aside from those concentration drops in traffic. His speed is nice, and the offense looks better than it had in the previous two years. He's had at least 6-43 on 9 targets in his last 4 games against the Broncos.
Kyle Pitts - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE4 in usage this month, but a huge drop is hiding that from the box score. Pitts is a full-time player in an offense that's watched it's WR2 fade away. The Falcons aren't as run dominant as before due to injuries up front, too, so Pitts is live for upside. The Panthers are 8th-worst against fantasy TEs this year, and Pitts put up 4-39-0 against them back in Week 3's blowout win.
Dalton Schultz - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 14.7 expected half PPR points, and it'll be Davis Mills again. The Texans are less likely to be in a shoutout than they were last week, but it is the Titans defense here and Houston is projected for 22.0 points. He's the TE9 on TE6 usage this month with most of his backups lost to injury.
Mark Andrews - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Unc's still got it (in the red zone). He's the TE13 on TE14 usage this month, and in 6 games with Lamar Jackson, he's performing better than his 7.5 expected half PPR points. That's been the case for years. Andrews needs TDs. He also often gets them. Projected scoring is down this week against the Browns, who have an awesome rookie LB in Carson Schwesinger.
Dallas Goedert - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The goal-line merchant is averaging 11.5 half PPR on 8.5 expected half PPR points this season because he's converted all 5 of his inside the 10-yard line targets for scores. Many of them were by design as a Tush Push offshoot. Goedert is still a baller between the 20s, however, if given chances. The Eagles are only 2.5-point favorites against the Lions this week.
Sam LaPorta - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE12 on TE21 usage this month with fewer than 9.2 expected half PPR points in 8-straight games. The Lions' team total is only at 22.0 points this week against an Eagles defense that features two studs at LB and a stud at slot corner. It's a bad spot for LaPorta, but he can only be moved down so far.
Zach Ertz - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 4 Marcus Mariota games, Ertz is averaging just 5.7 expected half PPR points, equivalent to TE25 usage. He should beat that with Terry McLaurin not making the trip to Spain, but the Commanders are only projected for 22.5 points despite playing the Dolphins. The good news is Miami is 3rd-worst against fantasy TEs, allowing over 90 yards to the position in back-to-back games.
Hunter Henry - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
His value to the offense has diminished with the breakout of multiple WRs, but Henry is still a near full-time player in a Patriots offense that struggles running the ball in short yardage, yet is projected for 28.0 points at home against a Jets defense without their two best players. Henry is a bounce back candidate off the waiver wire on Thursday Night Football.
Luke Musgrave - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week's matchup was tough and the Packers' offense in general collapsed, but Musgrave ran a route on 80% of dropbacks, as he did after Tucker Kraft's injury the week prior. Musgrave can offer straight-line YAC and will have big games down the stretch, even if the usage is volatile week-over-week. The Packers have Matthew Golden (shoulder) and Romeo Doubs (chest) on the injury report, yet have a 25.25-point team total against the Giants.
Theo Johnson - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE14 on TE13 usage this month and does get a couple 1st-read targets per game, sometimes even down field. Johnson's hands are an issue, but he can really stride out after the catch on occasion. Going from Jaxson Dart to Jameis Winston is largely a sideways move, as Winston is more likely to throw than pass in the red zone. That said, end zone chances are fairly low with an 18.25-point team total.
Mason Taylor - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Tyrod Taylor is averaging 5.5 yards per pass attempt as a Jet the past two years, while Justin Fields is at 6.4. Neither are answers, but without Garrett Wilson, Taylor is at a 21% target share and 16% targets per route. By the way, that difference is sacks and throwaways, which is a sign of bad QB play. This week's matchup leans towards pass funnel because the Patriots are nasty stopping the run, but I'm nervous the Patriots end Fields' starting career on TNF.
Colston Loveland
In his last 3 games with Cole Kmet, Loveland is averaging 7.3 expected half PPR points, and last week, the rookie ran a route on 58% of dropbacks. That could change if DJ Moore (shoulder) is out, but it does keep him out of sure-fire fantasy starter. This week's matchup versus the Vikings can mean TEs stay into block a bit more, and the Bears' duo had just 6 targets out of 35 pass attempts against them back in Week 1.
Isaiah Likely - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Harold Fannin - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE17 on TE17 usage this month, and last week even with David Njoku back, Fannin ran a route on 72% of dropbacks. In clear negative game scripts, Fannin can be a quality PPR Scam, but the Browns are teetering on unplayable with Dillon Gabriel against good defenses like the Ravens this week. Their team total is just 16.0 points, and his matchup will be against Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith.
David Njoku
AJ Barner - 22.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Noah Fant - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Evan Engram - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 11 QB Rankings
Notes coming later.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Drake Maye - 21.9 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Jalen Hurts - 20.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Dak Prescott
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Baker Mayfield
Joe Flacco
Caleb Williams
Jordan Love
Marcus Mariota
Aaron Rodgers
J.J. McCarthy
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff - 16.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Geno Smith
Jacoby Brissett
Bo Nix
Tua Tagovailoa
Mac Jones
Michael Penix
Trevor Lawrence
Davis Mills
Jameis Winston
Bryce Young
Justin Fields - 12.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Dillon Gabriel
Cam Ward
Week 11 Fantasy Defenses
The defenses of the week are the Texans, Patriots, Packers, and Ravens with honorable mentions to the Falcons, Chargers, and Chiefs.