Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 11 Recap
Week 12 RB Rankings
Jahmyr Gibbs - 78.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Lions are 1st in projected points (30.75) against the Giants, who are dead last in rushing EPA allowed. It's the cleanest spot of the year for Gibbs, who is back in a dome, too. Last week in some slightly negative script, Gibbs played a season-high snap rate after rotating drives early. Perhaps the Lions just want to get to the edge now that they have a backup in at guard.
Christian McCaffrey - 121.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The 49ers are 5th in projected points (27.75), and the Panthers left me a voicemail to see if I can suit up at linebacker because of their injuries.
Jonathan Taylor - 109.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB8 usage this month, as everyone knows. The Chiefs run stopping has been good for years, and the Colts only project for 23.5 points this week. It's fair to have slightly lower expectations this week, which means falling all the way down to 3rd in my rankings. He'll still ball out most likely.
Bijan Robinson - 124.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Falcons are 5th-lowest in projected points (18.5), and it's unclear if LG Matthew Bergeron will return to the lineup this week. The Kirk Cousins offense needs to be really RB-heavy, and Robinson is live for 10 targets without Drake London and a banged-up Darnell Mooney. That's not an exaggeration. In Full PPR, Robinson goes up to CMC land.
Derrick Henry - 83.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Ravens are 2nd in projected points (29.0) against the Jets without their two best defensive players. And as my GOAT Evan Silva said, "It's the holidays. Defenders start thinking about their families, and Derrick Henry runs right over them." Couldn't agree more.
Rico Dowdle - 101.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It didn't feel like it in the box score, but Dowdle had a season-high 21.7 expected half PPR points last week when the Panthers offense broke out of a big-time funk. Dowdle is still a total bellcow in a run-first offense with admirable blocking. He's produced when the Panthers have had below-average team totals like this week (20.25), and the 49ers front seven is entirely on injured reserve. It's a very clean spot here. The floor is super high with 5-straight games above 14.1 expected half PPR points as the starter.
James Cook - 92.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Over the past 365 days, Cook is the RB8 per game. This is a tougher spot against the Texans' elite DL, but the Bills are still projected for 24.75 points despite being on the road. Cook had 20-82-1 against them last year in a very similar spot.
Travis Etienne - 75.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: Bhayshul Tuten (ankle) was limited on Wednesday and Thursday. This ranking assumes Tuten can't play. I'll update this later.
He's the RB13 on RB1 overall usage this month, despite splitting touches with Bhayshul Tuten evenly last week. Over the entire season, Etienne has top-12 weekly finishes in 6-of-10 games. Nobody on X or BlueSky will tell you about it. Jacksonville is very run heavy, especially near the goal line right now, and Coen does get his backs to the edge well. Tuten was rolled up on pretty decently last week and I'm not sure he plays. The Jaguars are 9th in projected points (25.0) vs. the Cardinals, who are allowing 4.5 YPC to RBs.
TreVeyon Henderson
The Patriots are 2nd in projected points (29.0) against the Bengals, who've allowed 30.3 half PPR points per game to RBs. Even in a timeshare, it's a fantastic spot with both edge rushers injured.
This assumes Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) and/or Terrell Jennings are active here, versus only having D'Ernest Johnson behind Henderson last week. This is what the rotation was before their injuries, obviously noting that the 2nd-round pick had monster games since then. With Stevenson as the lead back in Weeks 7-8, Hendo had 0.9 and 7.4 expected half PPR points based on his usage. In Weeks 9-10 with only Jennings partly playing, Hendo had 14.7 and 12.5 expected half PPR points. Last week without either, Hendo was at 21.9 expected half PPR points. The cat is out of the bag now that they've figured out how to properly use Hendo's skillset, but Stevenson is paid well for this and next year. I think it'll be closer to the split with Jennings in Week 9 or so when both rotated. I'd still make Stevenson the slight favorite for goal-line touches, but the Patriots could also go full-blown Rookie Bump here. Nobody fully knows, so live your best life.
Kyren Williams - 62.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Rams are 4th in projected points (28.0), and over the last 365 days, he's been the RB11 per game. More recently, the Rams have rotated drives to a tee, but Kyren has been out-producing Blake Corum on the exact same yards before contact per carry. The only exception really was last week after a timeout, the Rams subbed Williams in after 3-straight goal-line stuffs by Corum. Long story short, even half drives are enough for Williams to be a real asset with the Rams humming. The Bucs defense, while good up front, isn't what the Seahawks was last week.
Saquon Barkley - 78.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Eagles are 8th in projected points (25.5) against a much-improved run defense with DT Quinnen Williams in the fold. On top of that, Barkley will not have Hall of Fame RT Lane Johnson (foot) for the rest of the regular season. The Eagles' success rate drops to 42% without Johnson on the field over the past 4 years. That's close to 50% with him. In terms of EPA per play, it's +0.13 with him versus -0.10 without him. It cannot be overstated how important this is. Barkley is already not getting the clean lanes he did with a healthy OL last year, and it's unclear if C Cam Jurgens can't suit up again. He's the RB10 on RB10 usage this month.
Josh Jacobs/Emanuel Wilson
Update: He was a DNP (knee) limited on Thursday. This is about where I'd have Emanuel Wilson if Jacobs misses. I didn't see anything crazy with his injury, and it's only a knee contusion per reports. We'll find out later in the week, as he's "day to day".
Last year against the Vikings, Jacobs had 17-69-1 and 9-51-0 with 4 receptions. It's a challenging matchup with some backup linemen against a low-key monster DL. Jacobs isn't an explosive rusher in this environment, so everything is about TDs. The Packers only project for 23.5 points this week, so I'm expecting below-average results versus the RB5 overall production he's had over the past 365 days.
Chase Brown
His two games without Samaje Perine have led to 22.1 and 16.6 expected half PPR points, very similar to where he was at late last season. Brown will still be held back by a bad OL and a mediocre 20.5-point team total against a pass-funnel Patriots defense--NE is the very best against fantasy RBs at 13.9 half PPR per game--but his snap share is very safe at this point. He's the RB7 on RB4 usage this month after a couple of wild Joe Flacco games. I don't expect that level of team success here without Ja'Marr Chase.
D'Andre Swift
He's the RB21 on RB16 usage this month, so this is still largely Swift's backfield (see below), even if Kyle Monangai is mixing in. Swift is creating explosives and is game-script agnostic on a team projected for an above-average 23.5 points at home. The Steelers played a lot of 2-high shells last week and may not have EDGE Alex Highsmith here. It's a fine environment all things considered.
Javonte Williams - 70.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cowboys OL is fully healthy, and they'll be amongst the highest scorers the rest of the way. Big days are coming, even if the box score has been quiet recently. This will be a difficult task against the Eagles' fringe league-best defense. They have two stud DTs and added 3 edge rushers over the past couple weeks. The Cowboys' 22.0 team total sits at the NFL average. That checks out. Williams is the RB20 on RB13 usage this month when the OL was less healthy.
Woody Marks - 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Offenses facing the Bills have the highest neutral run rate in the NFL, just ask Sean Tucker last week. The Bills are now 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs (25.7 half PPR points), and Marks played 66% of the snaps last week as the lead back. This month after the Post Bye Rookie Bump, Marks is the RB30 on RB21, but that's included 16.3 and 13.0 expected half PPR points in the last two as he's separated from the veteran. That's equivalent to RB12 usage if it holds, so even accounting for terrible blocking, Marks is a fantasy RB2.
Kenneth Walker - 65.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Seahawks are 6th in projected points (27.0) against the Titans, who had DPOY-caliber DT Jeffery Simmons back in the lineup last week. At the same time, 1st-round LG Grey Zabel is now hurt, so it's a major mismatch between the tackles here. Walker will need to hit the edge repeatedly to pay off, but game script is on his side. Last week in an important close contest, Walker had 12.2 expected half PPR points, his most since Week 4. There's no predictability in the RB usage week to week, but hopefully last week's split continues here. He's the RB24 on RB24 usage this month.
Breece Hall - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Jets are 2nd-lowest in projected points (15.5), but I've been impressed with the OL and Hall's explosiveness. He's also game-script agnostic and was promised receiving work all offseason. That's more likely to appear with Tyrod Taylor starting, even if the team will still be very bad, and he's already been the RB9 on RB19 usage this month. The main issue this week is a suddenly healthy (and dominant) Ravens defense with Kyle Hamilton in the box to hunt everything Hall.
Sean Tucker
We'll see about Bucky Irving (limited with a shoulder), but Tucker took the early-down role from White at half time of last week against a run-funnel Bills defense. Things are different here. The Bucs are only projected for 21.5 points this week against a Rams defense that has allowed just 15.3 half PPR points per game to fantasy RBs (3rd best), and most of those points are in the receiving game where Rachaad White should still be pretty involved.
David Montgomery - 48.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Lions are 1st in projected points (30.75), and it may not be as Jahmyr Gibbs heavy this week as 10.5-point favorites. Monty lost a bunch of work late in the game after rotating drives earlier on. If that holds, Monty is live for a score here, and it helps that Sam LaPorta isn't in the lineup to steal some red zone work. He's averaged 70 total YPG in 6 wins this year and 84 YPG in 12 wins last year.
Ashton Jeanty - 57.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB14 usage this month, and now he gets the Browns without a starting guard. The Raiders laid an egg against the damn Cowboys at home in prime time, so it's hard to muster up any enthusiasm for the rest of the season. The OL is largely to blame.
Aaron Jones
The Vikings are 4th-lowest in projected points (17.0). The two lowest neutral pass rates of the season for Minnesota have been in Week 1 and last week, two games with JJ McCarthy starting. They have to protect the kid at this point, and they do have the OL to get hot on the ground. Jones had a season-high 11.9 expected half PPR points last week, equivalent to RB22 usage. There is a path to fantasy RB production even with bad QB play here, but it is threading a needle.
Alvin Kamara - 56.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In the game before the bye, Kamara pulled out a shocking 13.0 half PPR outing on 14.9 expected half PPR points. Devin Neal hasn't been a real threat like Kendre Miller was, and without Rashid Shaheed, Kamara is more likely to be involved in the pass game. Tyler Shough played very well on tape in that game and gets his Post Bye Rookie Bump to dial in. The Falcons are a chaotic defense without a lot of teeth against the run. The Saints' 20.0-point team total isn't terrible either. Count me slightly in?
Zonovan Knight - 64.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: Trey Benson's window to return was opened but he feels a week away after seeing some practice footage (which actually looked really bad).
Emari Demercado (ankle) will miss, and Michael Carter has been erased from the picture until he's the only remaining option. Knight should be the primary goal-line back, especially after handling the goal-line opportunity on a Michael Carter drive in a blowout loss last week. The game script shouldn't be as funky this week, with the Cardinals projected for a league-average 22.5 points at home to the Jaguars. Knight has had 11.1 and 14.8 expected half PPR points in games with Carter as his backup in Week 6 and 7.
Quinshon Judkins - 68.5 rush yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Browns are 3rd-lowest in projected points (16.5), and quite frankly, I do like the lower on that. I'd be surprised if the Browns aren't the most run-heavy team in the NFL with Shedeur Sanders after completing 0 passes on 9 blitz dropbacks last week. He's been the RB38 on RB17 usage this month with the Browns completely caving in.
Kareem Hunt
Update: Isiah Pacheco (knee) returned to practice on Wednesday. This ranking assumes Pacheco is back. In his last 4 games with Pacheco healthy, Hunt averaged 8.8 expected half PPR points.
The Chiefs are 6th in projected points (27.0), and Hunt has 3-straight games above 12.0 half PPR points thanks to all those goal-line touchdowns. He's now the RB17 on RB22 usage this month after riding out an RB13 stint as the starter without Isiah Pacheco (questionable) last year over multiple months. It's not sexy, but the sample size is firm here and the Chiefs OL is playing well. The Colts are without star DT DeForest Buckner.
Jaylen Warren
Update: He was limited on Thursday (ankle).
Even before his injury, Warren wasn't playing as a bellcow. Since the bye week, Warren averaged 11.2 expected half PPR points (removing last week's game), and there's a 3rd-round rookie waiting in the wings. The Steelers offense could be even more limited if Aaron Rodgers (wrist) plays through an injury, so expectations need to be held in check.
Kenneth Gainwell
We'll see with Warren later, but Arthur Smith did say, "Those guys are pretty interchangeable."
Zach Charbonnet
The Seahawks are 6th in projected points (27.0), but Charbonnet is only the WR34 on WR40 usage this month with things slightly leaning more towards Kenneth Walker near the goal line recently.
Rhamondre Stevenson
He's unlikely to get this clear of usage, but Stevenson's last 4 healthy games were averaging 11.4 expected half PPR points and the Patriots have a 29.0-point team total against a tanking rival. There's room for both to get home, even behind this OL. Stevenson is live for a goal-line vulture as the thiccest dude in the backfield, but I'd be stunned if he's the clear snap leader coming off a toe injury. He's probably a change of pace hammer instead.
Tyrone Tracy
The Giants haven't put him on the field inside the 10-yard line on any of the 18 snaps since the Cam Skattebo injury, but Tracy is very active elsewhere as a PPR-boosted FLEX play after seeing a season-high 13.3 expected half PPR points last week. It gets more complicated with Jaxson Dart returning to the field, as his scrambles and designed runs work against his backfield mates. He's the WR33 on WR32 usage this month.
Devin Singletary
He has played on all 18 snaps inside the 10-yard line since the Cam Skattebo injury, so he's a TD-or-bust FLEX. Last week, Singletary had a season-high 20.1 expected half PPR points because of the goal-line touches, which could come down with Jaxson Dart coming back to the lineup.
Rachaad White
He lost his early-down role at halftime last week.
Blake Corum
The Rams are 4th in projected points (28.0). It didn't matter in the box score, but Corum had a season-high 10.8 expected half PPR points last week and is the WR35 usage this month while rotating drives with Kyren Williams since the bye.
Isiah Pacheco
In his last 4 healthy games with Kareem Hunt, Pacheco averaged 8.8 expected half PPR points. He might not get his usual role right after an MCL sprain, but the Chiefs are projected for 27 points against a Colts defense without DT DeForest Buckner.
Kyle Monangai
In games with D'Andre Swift since the bye week, Monangai has averaged 7.5 expected half PPR points.
Tony Pollard - 49.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Titans are lowest in projected points (13.5).
Keaton Mitchell
The Ravens are 2nd in projected points (29.0).
Tyler Allgeier
The Falcons are 5th-lowest in projected points (18.5).
Michael Carter
Nick Chubb
Week 12 WR Rankings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 93.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Titans best CBs are on the Rams (Roger McCreary), Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), and in the court system (L'Jarius Sneed). The Seahawks are projected for 27.0 points at home. It's an eruption spot.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 84.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
When the Lions are projected for 30.25 points, you jam all of them in. The Giants are rotating DBs because none of their good ones are healthy. It's a lame duck defensive coordinator, too. ARSB is the WR20 on WR2 usage this month.
Puka Nacua - 88.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It is true that he is losing some snaps because of 3-TE sets and has sunk to WR7 on WR20 usage this month, but we'll see if the Rams trend continues or if that was matchup dependent. Even with that, Nacua is a monster and the Rams are projected for 28.0 points at home against a Buccaneers' pass-funnel defense. 6 WRs have reached 10+ half PPR points against them in just the last 3 games.
Davante Adams - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR9 on WR9 usage this month. There's nobody more automatic in the red zone this year. Even last week, it's a check at the goal line to throw a slant to Adams instead of running the ball. The Rams are projected for 28.0 points at home against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense. 6 WRs have reached 10+ half PPR points against them in just the last 3 games.
Tee Higgins - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Without Ja'Marr Chase over the past 3 years, Higgins is averaging 2.5 yards per route on 20% targets. They have the entire week to game plan for this, but Higgins will be facing off with CB1 Christian Gonzalez who matches up with Higgins' size. The Bengals won't be able to run the ball against this front most likely, so jump balls and hopefully some more manufactured touches will balance out with the more difficult one-on-one matchup. The volume usually outweighs the matchup.
Rashee Rice - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Chiefs are projected for the 6th-most points (27.0) at home against a Colts team that can push for a shootout. Rice has struggled against man coverage, which the Colts can play in with their CBs improving with a trade and injury return. Sauce Gardner won't go inside to face off with Rice, but SCB Kenny Moore is a quality player when actually healthy.
CeeDee Lamb - 74.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Eagles are a very good defense with a much better DL than they had in Week 1, but their secondary needs to have a better plan, too. They sacrificed George Pickens to Quinyon Mitchell, while letting Lamb eat against their weak CB2 spot. Perhaps they have Cooper DeJean on Lamb more here, or Mitchell slides his way. Either way, the Cowboys OL being healthy and Dak Prescott playing like a Pro Bowler again means Lamb has a great projection. He's the WR16 on WR6 usage.
Nico Collins - 74.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR5 on WR1 overall usage this month, and Davis Mills can spin the football and never runs. It's a good combination for fantasy points, as the Stanford brainiac understands good things happen when you throw it to Collins. The Bills defense has a strong CB1 with an emerging rookie CB2 on the perimeter, while stinking it up on the ground. It's not as clean of a matchup this week, but a healthy Collins is a top-10 real life receiver pretty easily. That's true right now.
Emeka Egbuka - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Defenses are shading things his way more, but Egbuka is still going to have big games when the deep ball connects as it did earlier this year. Egbuka is the WR22 on WR5 usage, and two of the receivers above him in usage aren't playing this week (Ja'Marr Chase and Drake London). It's a zone-based matchup against the Rams, who just placed a strong safety on injured reserve this week. Teams haven't been able to run on the Rams either, so the Bucs could be in a heavy dropback game plan here. Buy the dip.
Stefon Diggs - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He ran a route on 88% of dropbacks and played a season-high amount of snaps in the slot last week. He's looked good on tape all season to me, and now the Patriots are back to a 28.0 team total against the Bengals. Diggs would be dodging CB1 D.J. Turner and seeing SCB Dax Hill if those trends continue here. It's an eruption spot.
DeVonta Smith - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR30 on WR33 usage this month, but this is the Cowboys defense here. Their run defense has improved with DT Quinnen Williams, so extra targets wouldn't be a surprise. Against the pass, the Cowboys are 5th in zone targets, which is where Smith's usage increases. He's in the slot sometimes and then has better feel working through zones than his counterpart. When matched up with CB1 Daron Bland or against their rookie CB, it's a mismatch, too. The only negative is the on/off splits with RT Lane Johnson. The Eagles' success rate drops by more than 7% without him over the past 4 years in a big sample. I just can't ignore the Cowboys ranking dead last against fantasy WRs. It's an eruption spot.
Michael Wilson - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cardinals are 3rd in neutral pass rate this month with record-holder Jacoby Brissett. Wilson dominated against zone and was moved around the formation to get some man-coverage wins, too. Now Marvin Harrison Jr (appendix) means Wilson can keep winning over the middle with an offense that really can't run the ball. On top of that, offenses facing the Jaguars have passed the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations. There should be plenty of targets here again.
Jameson Williams - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Dan Campbell has been good for Jamo, and we'll reap the rewards from it here with the Lions projected for over 30 points against the Giants at home. The dome is Jamo's friend, and CB1 Paulson Adebo hasn't played in a bit and didn't practice on Wednesday. It's an eruption spot.
Tetairoa McMillan - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR10 on WR10 usage this month, coming off a season-high 19.7 expected half PPR points. The Panthers offense was fun and well-protected by a quality OL. McMillan's individual usage did change last week, most importantly. The rookie was moved into the slot to use his versatility more, re-affirming my Drake London upside comp. This week is a juicy matchup. The 49ers are so injured (29th in passing EPA allowed), and their offense should put up a bunch of points on the Panthers. Game script is on McMillan's side.
Chris Olave - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR18 on WR23 usage this month and won't have to compete with Rashid Shaheed or even Brandin Cooks now. Tyler Shough played really well in the game prior to the bye, and the offense should rotate around Olave, assuming they can't run the ball behind this injured OL. Olave will see A.J. Terrell for some snaps, but unless he travels to both sides and the slot, then it won't be the entire game. He's had 8-87-0, 3-56-1, and 7-114-0 against the Falcons recently.
George Pickens - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Pickens' season-low in expected half PPR points (5.7) was in Week 1 against the Eagles because they put All Pro CB1 Quinyon Mitchell on him for most of the game. Now, Lamb went nuts so it's not a guarantee that it'll continue, but it does feel like a common-sense matchup to go back to this. Pickens can beat anyone at this point, but Mitchell is my favorite healthy CB in the NFL right now and now the Eagles have a real pass rush. The Cowboys only project for 22.0 points this week, so a slightly worse week than Pickens' baseline (WR6 on WR12 usage this month) makes sense.
A.J. Brown - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR67 on WR21 usage this month. Unfortunately, Brown isn't as dynamic in his routes this year, perhaps after years with iffy knees. You can see it on his slants and comeback routes against man coverage, but he can still sprint well and will have explosive plays when he's locked in. The Cowboys are largely a zone defense where he's historically weaker, but their pass-funnel personnel make this an eruption spot if he's up for it. CB1 Daron Bland has struggled when left in isolation this year, partly leading to the Cowboys allowing more fantasy points to WRs than any other team.
Zay Flowers - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman (ankle) was a DNP after missing last week. Flowers had a forgettable outing without him last week and is only averaging 9.8 expected half PPR points in 7 games with Lamar Jackson this year. He's a focal point between the 20s and is an asset in Full PPR, but Flowers' career TD numbers pail in comparison versus other fantasy WR2s. Hopefully a monster 29.0-point team total changes that fate here. The Jets traded Sauce Gardner and have a man-heavy scheme.
Rome Odunze
He's the WR29 on WR15 usage this month, as a positive regression candidate. The Steelers have found their stride on defense after moving Jalen Ramsey to safety, but Odunze will simply be facing off with CB1 Joey Porter for much of the game. It's a fair fight for Odunze, who aside from catching the ball consistently has been impressive on film. Obviously that's a big "aside". The Bears project for an above-average 24.0 points at home here.
Alec Pierce - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR14 on WR17 usage this month. Pierce's route tree is growing, helping his weekly floor. And the Colts are more pass-heavy than you'd think in neutral situations. This week, they'll be in neutral situations most likely against the Chiefs as slight road dogs. Kansas City has solid outside CBs in a great scheme, but Pierce is integral to the offense right now.
Michael Pittman - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's still a good player in a very good offense, but the emergences of Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren have hurt his weekly floor a bit. Pittman is the WR12 on WR34 usage this month and he's been a top-24 WR in 7-of-10 games. Th other 3 were total duds. It happens to almost everyone at this position. This week, the Chiefs are favored over them, and the Colts are more pass-heavy than you'd think in neutral and negative situations. A few extra targets wouldn't be surprising, even if the Chiefs have two solid outside CBs.
Justin Jefferson - 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR16 usage this month, thanks to backup-level QB play. The Vikings offense is changing to adjust for their QB's inexperience and inaccuracies, which means more runs on early downs. Jefferson is still creating a bunch of separation and JJ McCarthy can whip the ball downfield, so there's still a ceiling here. The floor is just gone versus the other fantasy WR1s. The Vikings only project for 17.25 points in Green Bay. I don't trust McCarthy with that pass rush.
Romeo Doubs - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR16 usage this month, as a positive regression candidate. Doubs had 11 targets in his last game against the Vikings late last year and is the most reliable option against pressure in the offense. It'll be more difficult to hold up in the pocket to launch downfield shots, so Doubs intermediate skill set should be leaned on.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Darius Slayton (hamstring) was a DNP, and Jaxson Dart returned from concussion protocol. He's averaging 11.8 half PPR points (WR18) on 10.9 expected points (WR19 usage) in 3 games without Slayton and Malik Nabers. The Lions will force the Giants into a pass-heavy script, and the other receivers really have no chance against their man-coverage style. Unfortunately, Wan'Dale will have to do damage against a great LB trio and SS Brian Branch to pay off. As always, he's better in Full PPR.
Brian Thomas - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He was limited (ankle) on Thursday, but it's a great spot if Thomas is cleared.
DK Metcalf - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll see about Aaron Rodgers later in the week, but this month, Metcalf has been running bad (WR49) on WR22 usage. His highlight plays are hard to predict in a very conservative, slow-paced offense. Rodgers isn't holding onto the ball, so Metcalf's target depth is far lower than before. That should be particularly true with Rodgers' wrist injury. The matchup is clean here, assuming Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are one more week away. Stay tuned there.
Jauan Jennings - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's an eruption spot with a 28.25-point team total at home. It just comes down to target volume with elite competition to work against. Jennings has 9.2 expected half PPR points per game (WR32 usage) in 4 contests with George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall this year but is moving around better today than back in September when he was dealing with various injuries. The schemed up targets to Jennings should trend way down now, however. He's a TD-or-bust WR3.
Ricky Pearsall - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's an eruption spot with a 28.25-point team total at home. It just comes down to target volume with elite competition to work against. Pearsall is valuable to the team and has spike-week potential because of his speed, but it is a fact that his routes are most difficult in the scheme and are the most downfield, which leaves him with the lowest floor in the skill group. Pearsall looked healthy on tape last week, turning the corner on a cheat motion at high speed. In 4 games with Jennings, Pearsall has averaged 8.2 expected half PPR points this year but two of those were without Kittle.
Darnell Mooney - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Drake London (knee) leaves behind a 30% target share, and only so much of that can go to backup WRs David Sills, KhaDarel Hodge, and Casey Washington. Mooney has to step up. In theory, he should get healthier the further he gets away from his broken collarbone, but he's simply been way worse than he was last year. In fact, his 6 drops this year are already more than last year on half the targets. He can still really run and should catch favorable game script as slight dogs in a dome, but Mooney is a boom-bust asset until proven otherwise. There's no reason to expect Kirk Cousins to turn the page either. His arm and mobility are shot. He nearly killed Mooney with a safety murder ball over the middle last week.
Christian Watson - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR52 usage this month, going up for some key downfield TDs while the rest of the skill group crumbles. Watson still isn't getting anything easy, leaving him without a floor, but his tape is nice right now and Jordan Love can absolutely sling it. The Packers will face pressure from a Vikings pass rush, so it'll be more challenging to have enough time to work down field.
Khalil Shakir - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He only ran a route on 67% of routes last week and still only plays in 3-WR sets, even without Keon Coleman (healthy scratch). It's a full-blown committee, and Shakir needs to go crazy after the catch to pay off given his low aDOT. It's possible the Bills use him in ways they would've schemed up for Dalton Kincaid, but the floor and ceiling are fairly low. He's the WR33 on WR46 usage this month, which mirrors his play whenever healthy for the past 365 days. This week is a tough matchup with the Texans' defense, but Shakir will at least largely dodge CB1 Derek Stingley while playing in the slot.
Xavier Worthy - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He was a DNP with that ankle injury on Wednesday. Worthy can still run in a straight line, but he hasn't been as dynamic on film this year with those two injuries. Still, Patrick Mahomes completely whiffed on him for a potential 1.2 billion yard TD last week. With Travis Kelce balling and Rashee Rice getting the zone-coverage looks, then Worthy has fell into TD-or-bust land. The only good news is he's on the Chiefs.
Tez Johnson
He's the WR35 on WR41 usage this month as a starter. We'll see if Chris Godwin (leg) returns, but the coaching staff already said he wouldn't be a full-time player if he does suit up. The problem is the Bucs aren't quite as good as they typically have been recently and only project for 21.5 points against a top-5 defense in Los Angeles.
Kayshon Boutte
He returned to full participation after the long rest week. Before his injury, Boutte was running pure on downfield passes, averaging 10.6 half PPR points on 5.8 expected half PPR points. It was an unsustainable pace, but the Patriots are projected for 28.5 points against the Bengals. He will be facing off with CB1 D.J. Turner, who is arguably the only good player on the Bengals defense right now.
DJ Moore
Last week was a season-low in usage (4.7 expected half PPR points), but Moore is still the WR27 on WR38 usage this month with the offense continuing to look better aside from the ridiculous drops. Moore has been missed a few times on downfield shots, but eventually those will connect. Just keep an eye out for more Luther Burden after he just jumped Olamide Zaccheus last Sunday.
Jakobi Meyers
We'll see about Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) later in the week.
Cooper Kupp - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It hasn't been pretty for most of the year, but Kupp ran a route on 82% of dropbacks last week as a full-time slot in 3-WR sets and half participation in heavier personnel. This week, Seattle projects for a wild 27.0 points despite being on the road, and the Titans are a clear pass-funnel defense. This is the best spot for upside.
Josh Downs - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Because of target competition, game script, and a lack of 3-WR snaps, Downs has fewer than 6.0 expected half PPR points in 5-of-9 games with a max of 12.9. He needs to be losing or to create an explosive to pay off. The Colts are 3.5-point dogs here against a Chiefs defense that's worse against the slot than the perimeter, but it's still a long shot to work. He's the WR34 on WR51 usage this month, and that's been the best of it.
Tre Tucker - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's clearly their best receiver if we don't count Brock Bowers as a slot. Does that matter much? Not really but it's a cool fact. Tucker's 12.6 expected half PPR points last week were his most since Week 3, not overly surprising with Jakobi Meyers removed. The Raiders have little chance against this Browns defense, but Tucker gets a couple manufactured touches weekly.
Jordan Addison - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
A key drop over the middle spoiled last week's outing, but even that throw (while accurate) was just really late. It's the JJ McCarthy experience right now. The timing is off and the ball is spraying. I don't think that gets solved in Green Bay this week, and Addison has been the WR41 on WR25 usage this month in better spots than this one. Addison still has a ceiling based on his downfield routes. The floor is just non-existent at this point.
Greg Dortch - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
You just got Dortched. He had a season-high 9.3 expected half PPR points last week without Marvin Harrison Jr and Zay Jones, and they won't suit up here. He fits in with Jacoby Brissett, even if severely behind Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. The Cardinals are 3rd in neutral pass rate this month, and offenses facing the Jaguars have been 1st in neutral pass rate. Let the ball rip.
Andrei Iosivas - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
No Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki help his odds of seeing 5+ targets this week, but even without one of the stud WRs, Iosivas has been a low-volume player who needs a big play to save the day. He's never eclipsed 5 receptions in a game. That's certainly possible here with the Bengals offense still rolling. That's with Joe Flacco or an injured Joe Burrow here.
Chimere Dike
Calvin Ridley (leg) is on IR, and Elic Ayomanor (hamstring) was a DNP.
Parker Washington
We'll see about Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) later in the week.
Rashid Shaheed
Luther Burden
Jayden Higgins - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In his last 4 games since the Post Bye Rookie Bump, Higgins is averaging a respectable 8.8 expected half PPR points in some wild contests. He ran a route on just 58% of dropbacks last week, however, while rotating with Xavier Hutchinson on the perimeter. Higgins is a fairly lackluster separator in terms of athleticism, but he has more polish than most rookies and is reliable at the catch point. I like him as a secondary option long term, acknowledging there could be a ceiling due to a lack of suddenness.
Jerry Jeudy - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Xavier Legette
Jalen Coker - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Matthew Golden - 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Mack Hollins - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 12 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 80.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
George Kittle - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
His tape the last two weeks are as elite as it gets. Kittle is the TE4 on TE6 usage this month, and the matchup is juicy. The Panthers asked Josh Norris to line up at LB this week due to injuries, and Kyle Shanahan will highlight bad LB play the entire game if it keeps working. It will. The 49ers are 5th in projected points (27.75).
Brock Bowers - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Raiders only project for 18.75 points against the Browns, who have some quality players over the middle in addition from their insane DL. Rookie LB Carson Schwesinger is a mad man in coverage, and the Browns could use CB1 Denzel Ward in 3x1 sets when they go to that. In general, the Browns have allowed the 6th-fewest receptions to the position. It's a difficult matchup but the Raiders have no other choice here. He's averaged 11.9 half PPR points on 10.8 expected points this year, which includes a few clearly-injured outings.
Travis Kelce - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Unc still got it.
Tyler Warren - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE10 on TE4 usage this month as a positive regression candidate. The Chiefs are a formidable defense in general, but they are at least weaker over the middle than on the outside. Warren
Kyle Pitts - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In games with one of the top-2 receivers out, Pitts is averaging 8.4 expected half PPR points. That's mostly with Darnell Mooney out, not Drake London. That gives Pitts a reasonable floor, even if Kirk Cousins makes me extremely nervous on an 18.5-point team total. The Flacons just ran out of options to throw to with their terrible depth.
Hunter Henry - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bengals have allowed 18.6 half PPR points per game to TEs. The 2nd-worst defense is only at 14.4 points. They've given up tackling (just ask Darnell Washington), and with a strong CB1, the ball just gets funneled over the middle. Henry has been quiet with the WRs stepping up around him (TE25 on TE24 usage this month), but he's still capable of a random spike week. This wouldn't be random. New England is 3rd in projected points at 29.0.
Mark Andrews - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 7 games with Lamar Jackson, he's averaging 10.2 half PPR points on 7.9 expected points. That's just running pure on touchdowns as usual. The Ravens are 2nd in projected points this week (29.0) against a tanking Jets defense.
Dallas Goedert - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In Week 1, the Cowboys let Goedert roam free, catching all 7 of his targets for 44 yards. That was the 2nd-most targets and receptions of the year for him. The Eagles still have Goedert in the goal-line playbook, too, which could come in handy now that the Cowboys have multiple quality DTs and struggle elsewhere.
Dalton Schultz - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bills are stronger at CB than they are at LB and SS, so Schultz is in a fine-enough spot even if they've been holding down a soft TE schedule so far. The Texans have used him more recently due to injuries, and he's performed well. Schultz has averaged 10.3 half PPR points on 9.8 expected points in 5 games since the bye. He's the TE9 on TE5 usage this month.
Theo Johnson - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jaxson Dart returns, and in 7 games without Malik Nabers, the big dog is averaging 10.0 half PPR points on 8.3 expected points. Some of that has been fluky, but they can really use him if Darius Slayton (hamstring) misses again. Johnson will be chasing points to the Lions in a dome. 3 different TEs have had 6+ receptions against Detroit this year, even if we really like their LB and SS play.
Juwan Johnson - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE5 on TE15 usage this month, but some of that was off a couple of busted coverages that I don't fully want to carry over moving forward. Johnson is a fine player with little target competition without Rashid Shaheed. It all comes down to how good Tyler Shough is. He looked nice in a start before the bye at least.
Mason Taylor - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Things are better with Tyrod Taylor than Justin Fields, and Garrett Wilson being out leaves WRs who just got to the Big Apple this month. Taylor is a reliable target, and the entire point of benching Fields to evaluate young players like Taylor. He's the TE21 on TE10 usage as a buy low.
Cade Otton - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE13 on TE7 usage this month, as a secondary target with both veteran receivers out. Otton isn't very dynamic and the Bucs have been struggling more than normal recently, but he's a reliable target when needed. Tampa Bay only projects for 21.5 points against the Rams, who probably would rather have him be targeted than Emeka Egbuka downfield. That's apparent in the data, where they've allowed the 13th-most TE receptions on the year.
Jake Ferguson - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's fallen to TE23 on TE17 usage with George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb balling out. Ferguson will have to deal with two stud LBs and Cooper DeJean here, too. Not fun.
AJ Barner - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In a rare negative game script, Barner had a season-high 14.2 expected half PPR points on career-high targets. That won't happen here, but Barner is good and the Seahawks are in an eruption spot against the pass-funnel Titans.
Noah Fant
We're waiting on Mike Gesicki's status.
Colston Loveland
He's averaging 6.4 expected half PPR points in his last 4 games with Cole Kmet. They continue to rotate them, even if Loveland is flashing high-end play whenever targeted. The signs are there for a breakout. The volume keeps that in check for now.
Isaiah Likely - 22.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Take the 29.0-point team total, and hope Likely finds the end zone.
Harold Fannin - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE12 on TE9 usage this month, but I have zero faith in Shedeur Sanders this week.
Dawson Knox - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Luke Musgrave
Brock Wright - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Darnell Washington
Pat Freiermuth
David Njoku
Week 12 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen - 22.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Jalen Hurts
Drake Maye
Matthew Stafford
Brock Purdy
Jared Goff
Caleb Williams
Sam Darnold
Dak Prescott
Daniel Jones
Jaxson Dart
Joe Flacco/Joe Burrow
Jacoby Brissett
Trevor Lawrence
Baker Mayfield
Jordan Love
Tyler Shough
Bryce Young
Aaron Rodgers
Davis Mills - 14.9 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Kirk Cousins
J.J. McCarthy
Geno Smith
Tyrod Taylor
Cam Ward
Shedeur Sanders
Week 12 Fantasy Defenses
The best defenses of the week are the Seahawks, Ravens, Packers, Raiders, Lions, and Browns. Those are great spots across the board. The next tier includes the Falcons, Bills, and Saints.