Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 12 Recap
This does not include Week 11 Monday Night Football. Weird week for content during Thanksgiving week.
Thanksgiving DFS Rankings
This is my favorite week for DFS. We have more than $300k worth of drafts on Underdog that you'll love if you're a reader of this column. Here are my positional rankings just for those slates:
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry // Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams, Chase Brown // Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery // Isiah Pacheco, Emanuel Wilson, Justice Hill // Samaje Perine, Keaton Mitchell, Brashard Smith, Malik Davis.
WR: Ja'Marr Chase // Rashee Rice, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Pickens // Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson // Rashod Bateman, Andrei Iosivas, Hollywood Brown, Mitchell Tinsley, Dontayvion Wicks // DeAndre Hopkins, Tyquan Thornton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kavontae Turpin, Ryan Flournoy.
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson // Dak Prescott // Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Jared Goff.
TE: Travis Kelce // Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson // Mike Gesicki, Isiah Likely, Brock Wright // Noah Fant, Luke Musgrave // Charlie Kolar, John FitzPatrick, Robert Tonyan.
Week 13 RB Rankings
De'Von Achane
He's the RB3 on RB3 usage this month with one of the highest floors in fantasy. Now he's at home against the Tankathon Saints with an above-average 24.0-point team total.
Christian McCaffrey
It's the Browns defense. We have to adjust, which means he's not firmly the RB1 overall this week. He usually is.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 108.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The split is firmly trending towards Gibbs since Dan Campbell has called plays, as evidenced by the table below. Gibbs' only concern right now is a Packers matchup on a short week. Remember in Week 1, Gibbs caught 10 passes (!!!) but only for 40 total yards.
Derrick Henry - 99.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Big Dog eats during the Holidays. He was the RB1 in usage last week and now enters into an eruption spot against the Bengals' run game on Thanksgiving. The Ravens are projected for 30.0 points and Lamar Jackson is only doing so much with his legs right now.
Jonathan Taylor
The worst stint of his season just happened, and Taylor was still the RB4 on RB9 usage. Taylor gets another really difficult matchup with the Texans, and the offense has regressed a bit against stouter opponents, however. The team total sits at 24.5 points in a highly-important game for the division race.
Bijan Robinson
The Falcons catch the tanking Jets but still only have a 21.0-point team total. Robinson was held back with Kirk Cousins last week, even with both of his guards back in the lineup.
James Cook
He's the RB11 on RB17 usage this month. The offense absolutely needs him to rip explosives, and the Steelers have largely cleaned up their run defense recently with 5-straight games under 115 rushing yards on a 94-yard average. The Bills project for 26.0 points on the road here.
Saquon Barkley - 99.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Eagles are a below-average rushing offense with this OC and OL. It is what it is. Barkley is still moving very well, but he's just hit behind the line more often. He's the RB24 on RB14 usage this month. The Bears defense was massively injured last week, so we'll check the injury reports later before making a final determination of the matchup. For the time being, the Eagles are projected for 25.25 points with Jalen Hurts continuing to vulture at the goal line. This should be a game where he can get going on the ground again.
Travis Etienne
He's been a top-12 fantasy RB in 7-of-11 weeks and is the RB8 on RB2 in usage this month, too. What more do you want? This week, the Jaguars project for 24.5 points against the Titans, who have strong DTs but are pretty weak everywhere else. It's a good matchup with high stakes for the division and wild card.
Josh Jacobs
This assumes he's at near full health in a massive game for playoff stakes against the Lions. Jacobs' knee contusion didn't feel like a big deal to me, so it should be bellcow Jacob with Emanuel Wilson backing him up as usual. Jacobs is the RB5 per game over the past 365 days, but the Packers "only" project for 23.5 points this time around with Detroit's defense ranking top-8 in most metrics. He had a signature 70 yards with a score against them in Week 1.
Javonte Williams - 80.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It hasn't been pretty recently, but the Cowboys offense is balling, the OL is healthy, and Williams is a bellcow. I view this as more of a positive regression situation (RB28 on RB15 usage) than a resetting of expectations. The Chiefs are strong against the run, but Dallas is still projected for 24.5 points.
Kyren Williams
In a blowout win against a pass-funnel defense, Williams had a season-low 6.4 expected half PPR points last week. Blake Corum still rotates drives with Williams, too, and there's no reason to believe that'll change now. Williams is the RB13 on RB19 usage this month, and the Rams are 2nd in projected points (28.0) against the Panthers.
Breece Hall
He's the RB17 on RB25 usage this month. Hall is still stuck on a team projected for 18.5 points, but he was targeted 4 times last week on 71% snaps. That keeps his floor in tact, and he can really run when fully healthy like he is right now. The matchup works in his favor, too. The Falcons are light in the shorts, and the Jets are at home. If there's a week to project a ceiling game, this is one.
Chase Brown - 83.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Samaje Perine was a full participant on Monday, and the on/off splits are hard to ignore. Brown has 17.1 expected half PPR points without him versus 12.4 with him stealing pass-game work. The Bengals will have Joe Burrow back, but who knows which version of Burrow that is and it's against a surging Ravens defense.
Ashton Jeanty
The Raiders have the lowest team total (16.0), so if Jeanty didn't just have 10 targets last week, he'd be completely buried. There is no saving this OL, even if OC Chip Kelly was fired. It's a disaster. Jeanty is the RB14 on RB12 usage this month while not coming off the field. He played 81% snaps last week.
TreVeyon Henderson - 92.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Patriots are 3rd in projected points (27.5) against the worst rushing defense. The Giants were destroyed by Jahmyr Gibbs, enough to have DC Shane Bowen fired. Henderson's explosiveness will be intriguing, but his own OL lost both rookie starters, including 1st-round LT Will Campbell last game. It's a terrible OL, and Henderson's role at the goal line is iffy at best. Henderson had 15.3 expected half PPR points in a similarly great matchup last week, and Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is likely to play more, not less, as he gets away from his injury.
Kenneth Walker
He played 17-of-18 snaps on the first 3 drives, then Zach Charbonnet handled the 2-minute drill and a goal-line carry later on. Not ideal but progress. Walker's 13.2 expected half PPR points last week was a season-high. This week's matchup with the Vikings is tough on paper, but Seattle is 10.5-point home favorites with a 26.0 point team total. Field position and script should be on his side.
Kimani Vidal
We'll see if Omarion Hampton (ankle) is ready off the bye, but if he's not, then Vidal has been the RB26 on RB21 usage this month. That's the lowest it's been since he's been starting, which isn't a coincidence with LT Joe Alt out for the year. In 5 starts, he's averaging 13.3 half PPR points on 15.5 expected points. RB2 numbers no doubt. Vidal does get a comfy matchup at home off a bye against a Raiders team mentally in Cabo, so the Chargers are projected for 25.5 points. It's a good spot.
Quinshon Judkins
In 5 games without Joe Flacco, Judkins is averaging 12.4 half PPR points on 12.6 expected points. Those are low-end RB2 numbers, which has held true since the bye with the Browns' QB and OL amongst the worst in the NFL. Judkins is a monster on tape still, and the Browns at least catch the 49ers' injured defense at home with San Francisco on a short week. Their team total is at 17.25 points, and they went to the wild cat near the goal line.
Rico Dowdle
The Rams stop just about everyone, and I can't explain why Dowdle wasn't more involved on Monday Night Football. The Panthers used Chuba Hubbard a little more than normal and dropped back to pass far more than usual. Dowdle only had 8.5 expected half PPR points, while Hubbard had 7.3. That gap had been wider than 11 expected half PPR points in the 3 previous games. It also hurts the Panthers only project for 18.0 points this week.
RJ Harvey
He was not a full-time player before the bye, as Jaleel McLaughlin mixed in on the ground and Tyler Badie was featured in the pass game. Harvery, however, is coming off the Post Bye Rookie Bump and isn't a lock to lose the goal-line carry to McLaughlin again. In fact, Harvey is the favorite for it. In Week 11, he had a season-high 11.1 expected half PPR points, which is about his usage floor. A date with the Commanders collapsing defense is one to hope for upside. Denver projects for 25.0 points.
Kareem Hunt
This assumes Isiah Pacheco returns, but still, Hunt has been extremely effective in short yardage while Pacheco will be returning on a short week. Hunt's lackluster explosiveness does mean he should lose some work (RB8 usage this month), especially with stud RG Trey Smith (ankle) missing this one against an elite DT trio in Dallas. The Chiefs still have a 28.0-point team total, though, and Hunt can fall into the end zone once again. He's the RB12 this month.
Jaylen Warren
Coming off a minor ankle injury, Warren was still the 1a in a committee last week in a pristine matchup with 3 backup LBs among others, but he only had 11.2 expected half PPR points to Kenneth Gainwell's 14.1. Gainwell's production was tied to a Tush Pull variant, but Warren is losing real snaps, especially in the 2-minute drill. The good news is the Bills are another run-funnel defense to target, and Aaron Rodgers is at least expected back (for what it's worth) (nothing).
Woody Marks
He's the RB39 on RB16 usage this month, struggling with the lead back role behind a bad OL. The good news is the Colts defense is without DT DeForest Buckner and looks to be a run-funnel on paper. Marks should leave with RB2-level usage, even if the Texans only project for 21.0 points.
Tyrone Tracy
He finally had an inside the 10-yard line attempt last week, but equally importantly, continues to make plays between the 20s in a suddenly functional offense. The Giants are in safe hands with either Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart (concussion), and Tracy should be leaned on more than expiring-contract veteran Devin Singletary as the season progresses. Last week was a season-high 18.4 expected half PPR points, bringing him up to RB22 on RB23 usage this month without Cam Skattebo (ankle). The Patriots are showing some signs of weakness on defense without DT Milton Williams, so it's not surprising to see the Giants projected for 20.0 points here.
Aaron Jones
The offense will hide the QB the rest of the way, regardless if it's Max Brosmer or JJ McCarthy (concussion). Jones remains the clear lead back over Jordan Mason, but that's only made him the RB25 on RB30 usage this month with the offense fully bottoming out. Most likely, Brosmer is better than McCarthy, but will we see that in Seattle? The team total is at 17.0 points, the 2nd-lowest of the week.
D'Andre Swift - 57.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bears used a drive-by-drive split with Swift starting. Kyle Monangai is a threat, and it's okay to acknowledge Swift was a top-18 RB in 5 straight weeks before finishing outside the top-28 in back-to-back weeks. Adding to the worries is a matchup with the Eagles' newly-built front seven. The Bears are only projected for 18.5 points this time around. Adjust, unless you're a Revenge Game Bro.
Devin Neal
This assumes Alvin Kamara (MCL) is out, leaving the 6th-round rookie with Taysom Hill for carries out of the backfield. Neal had a season-high 9.8 expected half PPR points despite the Taysom non-sense, and did profile as back who can do a serviceable job in all roles. He seemed fairly reliable, while having a low ceiling. The Saints could use the start to evaluate his long-term value while they continue to tank it up. The Dolphins have been much better against the run recently.
Bucky Irving
The expectation is that he returns but to an injured interior OL with a banged-up Baker Mayfield. The team total is only 23.5 points despite an easy matchup with the Bucs. Irving also may not have his usual role after missing months with a shoulder injury. Sean Tucker threatens on the ground, while Rachaad White threatens in the pass game. A committee approach with lower-than-normal expectations is most realistic.
Kenneth Gainwell
He's the RB20 on RB29 usage this month, splitting snaps with Jaylen Warren fairly evenly. This is a juicy matchup against the run-funnel Bills, too. He's a deep-league flex option.
Chris Rodriguez
The split was heavier towards Rodriguez before the bye, but that does mean it's Bill Croskey-Merritt's Post Bye Rookie Bump. The Commanders will have Marcus Mariota at QB and get a Broncos' top-5 defense. Their 20.0-point team total and a commitment to a 3-way committee make Rodriguez a low-end TD-or-bust flex play only. He's the RB29 on RB37 usage this month.
Devin Singletary
He's been the RB30 on RB22 usage this month, primarily operating as the go-to option near the goal line. That wasn't fully true last week, however, and if Jaxson Dart returns, then competition for carries down there is even tougher.
Kyle Monangai
He's at 9.4 and 10.1 expected half PPR points in the last two weeks, rotating drives with D'Andre Swift with few exceptions in the win last Sunday. Monangai can catch some passes and finish off a drive at the goal line in this role, even if he's the 1b still. The 18.5-point team total isn't nearly as high as it's been recently, however, with the Eagles on deck.
Zach Charbonnet
He's the RB31 on RB42 usage this month.
David Montgomery - 52.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
See Jahmyr Gibbs for more, but Monty is only the RB41 on RB36 usage this month as mostly a handcuff only.
Bhayshul Tuten
He's the RB43 on RB38 usage this month, only playing 21% snaps last week and under 33% snaps in every game this season. Tuten can steal a goal-line score or rip an explosive, but it's a tough needle to thread while Travis Etienne plays well.
Rhamondre Stevenson
In what is likely the worst it's going to be given it was his return from a turf toe, Stevenson had 9.0 expected half PPR points thanks to some failed goal-line carries on a season-low 31% snap rate. The Patriots now won't have their 1st-round LT or RG due to injuries, so an already inefficient run game takes another hit. Stevenson needs to plow into the end zone to save his day. The only good news is the Patriots have a 27.5-point team total against the worst rushing defense in the NFL.
Sean Tucker
Tony Pollard
Blake Corum
Zonovan Knight
Michael Carter
Trey Benson
Week 13 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 92.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
No Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow returns? Yeah. The Bengals are 7-point dogs, too. Double digit targets or we riot.
Rashee Rice - 75.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's an eruption spot against the Cowboys CBs, and if we want to fully galaxy brain the matchup, the Chiefs won't have their stud RG in Trey Smith while facing 3 strong DTs. Rice could be back involved as a goal-line alternate this week. He had a season-high 19.2 expected half PPR points last week while chasing points. His plays were very clutch after a very quiet first three quarters.
CeeDee Lamb - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The drops are very tilting, but Lamb is the WR2 overall in usage this month in an offense that's fully balling out. Lamb gets the matchup boost by being in the slot, where he'll largely avoid the Chiefs top corners who play on the perimeter. The Chiefs offense should make this a shoutout on Thanksgiving.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
He's unstoppable. The only thing working against him is the Seahawks' projected dropbacks as huge 10.5-point favorites. JSN has to ball out early or risk having 4-6 targets. I don't expect the Vikings to do anything on the other side.
Puka Nacua
He's the WR5 on WR16 usage this month, losing work to Adams and 3-TE sets. Without Tyler Higbee, the Rams used them less last week, however. Panthers CB1 Jaycee Horn (concussion) is unlikely to play, too.
Davante Adams
Panthers CB1 Jaycee Horn (concussion) left on Monday Night Football.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR1 overall usage this month. The Lions are in a dome, but it is the Packers defense, so the team total sits at 25.5 points.
George Pickens - 74.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR2 on WR11 usage this month. He's a real-life top-10 WR now.
Michael Wilson
In two games without Marvin Harrison, who I expect to miss again, Wilson has 21.4 and 19.8 expected half PPR points as an elite WR1. Wilson is QB-friendly in his route running and his versatility means he'll face easier matchups. The Cardinals can't run the ball, and Jacoby Brissett is slinging it. This is a real situation, and Wilson passes the eye test. The Buccaneers provide an obvious pass-funnel strategy, too.
Jaylen Waddle - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR18 on WR20 usage this month and has out-played that since the Tyreek Hill injury. Waddle is at home against a forgettable Saints defense.
Tetairoa McMillan
The Panthers are 10-point dogs to the Rams, who plug the run against everyone. McMillan has averaged 8.6 targets over his past 5 games and has at least 7 targets in all 6 losses. He'll have a size advantage on Emanuel Forbes whenever they line up, and it'd be smart to keep using the rookie in the slot to quiet things down for Bryce Young behind an injured OL.
Ladd McConkey
It's hard to trust the Chargers at this point, but they did have the bye week to take a breath, play in a pseudo dome, and catch a lifeless Raiders defense. Las Vegas is beyond vanilla in their coverage, and if they rush 4 as usual, it's easier to game plan around Maxx Crosby. McConkey should cook their DBs and would benefit from a quick-hitting game plan with backups at tackle. Los Angeles has a 25.0-point team total.
Chris Olave - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR13 on WR18 usage this month. Tyler Shough is predictably up and down behind a terrible OL, but Olave is the featured player without Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, and now Alvin Kamara. He's close to "too big to fail". He'll catch the Dolphins secondary in Miami here.
DeVonta Smith - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 15.0 expected half PPR points against an easy Cowboys defense. Smith's catch was one of the best of the year. This matchup has the potential to be very easy again, but it comes down to the Bears' injury report. It's possible SCB Kyler Gordon is back.
A.J. Brown - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The last 2 matchups have been ideal -- man coverage Lions and then the no coverage Cowboys -- but make it 3 in a row here. The Bears might return two CBs. Pay attention to injury reports later in the week because if they miss, as do their top-3 LBs, then it's full party time again.
Nico Collins
The Colts have two stud outside CBs, and Davis Mills might draw another start. Collins is a monster but is coming off a season-low 3.4 expected half PPR points (3 targets) against a similar run-funnel defense. Houston only has a 20.0-point team total on the road.
Courtland Sutton
The Commanders CB1 and CB2 are on injured reserve, and the Broncos project for 25.0 points. On top of that, Dan Quinn historically uses a lot of single high looks where Sutton's size comes into play more. I'd rather use a sample of the past 1.5 years than the past month (WR43 usage) here. It's go time.
Emeka Egbuka
When Baker Mayfield is not healthy, he can really struggle. He should be relatively fine if it's an AC Joint injury to his left shoulder, but the Bucs haven't clicked on their downfield throws, and those are now Egbuka's specialty. He played a season low snaps in the slot last week with Chris Godwin back and unable to move on the perimeter. I don't think it's a given that he rebounds on his WR21 production and WR5 usage. In 3 games with Chris Godwin, he's averaged 11.6 expected half PPR points. That was 16.1 in his last 4 games before Godwin's return last Sunday.
Justin Jefferson
Max Brosmer is likely better than J.J. McCarthy, but we also need to be realistic about a UDFA rookie starting in Seattle. The Vikings project for 15.5 points, and the Seahawks know to double Jettas as much as possible. Brosmer does seem pretty smart, so I'm keeping Jefferson in the start-able range here despite the terrible spot.
Stefon Diggs - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He rug pulled in a great spot with a season-low 3.8 expected half PPR points. This is another beautiful spot with the Giants rotating bad CBs in the secondary, and we'll see if the game plan leans towards more quick throws without LT Will Campbell against these freaky edge rushers. That'd put more targets into Diggs' lap. He's the WR20 on WR34 usage this month, and the Patriots are 4th in projected points (27.0).
Zay Flowers - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He'll see CB1 D.J. Turner, while the rest of his defense plays blind football covering TEs and RBs. The Bengals are infinitely better against WRs, but the Ravens do have a 29.0-point team total. Flowers has been a consistent yardage compiler but has a 3% touchdown rate throughout his career. Size issue. Despite that, Flowers is still the WR29 on WR46 usage this month with Lamar Jackson clearly not at full health.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR14 on WR13 usage this month, playing a bit more outside and running a few more downfield routes. Robinson faces little target competition, and the QB play has graduated to solid. The Patriots are a slight pass-funnel defense but are a formidable unit in general. The Giants only project for 19.5 points.
Deebo Samuel
He's the WR17 on WR22 usage this month, largely without Terry McLaurin (questionable) and with Marcus Mariota. That should be the case here again, but the Commanders are limping into December and get the Broncos' defense. An 18.5-point team total awaits Samuel. He needs the ball a lot to pay off.
Jameson Williams - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's a total roller coaster, but he's the WR12 on WR38 usage this month with Dan Campbell calling plays. Jamo can't be the focal point of the offense, though the Lions are at home with a 25.5-point team total as a YAC and deep ball threat. The Packers' physicality in the secondary has me a little spooked compared to last week.
Troy Franklin
The Commanders CB1 and CB2 are on injured reserve, and the Broncos project for 25.0 points. Franklin should be more efficient here, after being the WR34 on WR12 usage this past month.
Michael Pittman
Brian Thomas - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He should be back this week, and the Jaguars are in a great spot against a pass-funnel Titans defense with stars at DT and backups at CB. Thomas faces a lot more target competition with Brenton Strange healthy, Jakobi Meyers reliable over the middle, and Parker Washington emerging. Instead, Thomas will need the big play to pay off as a boom-bust WR3.
Xavier Worthy - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's an eruption spot against the Cowboys CBs.
Romeo Doubs - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR42 on WR23 usage this month, as a positive regression candidate. Doubs has a 25% target share against man coverage this year but hasn't been very good with them. That'll be a test against the Lions' man-coverage identity, and the Packers can use him more than ever with Tucker Kraft (ACL) compiling 33% of their yards against man this season.
Christian Watson - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR28 on WR47 usage this month. Watson will have some man-coverage island reps here to possibly bring down a deep pass, but those are very volatile. His 19% target rate against man coverage is solid.
Quentin Johnston
He's only the WR50 on WR42 usage this month, but Johnston is still capable of ceiling games in easy matchups like this one at home against the Raiders. In fact, QJ had 3-71-1 on 7 targets against the Raiders in Week 2. Their vanilla cover three defense can be hit for big plays.
Khalil Shakir - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bills officially have no other choice in the pass game. Shakir was peppered last week with Dalton Kincaid out and Keon Coleman healthy scratched. He looks healthy again, and the Bills are in crunch time. He's the WR45 on WR40 usage this month.
Darnell Mooney
Kirk Cousins is actually shot. He did fully step into the post TD to Mooney, but the rest of the game still had a lot of concerns. Mooney only had 4.2 expected half PPR points, while the Falcons kept putting 3-TEs onto the field. This should be a nice spot (again) with the Jets firmly tanking on defense.
Rome Odunze - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR46 on WR17 usage this month. Odunze needs to play better. It's as simple as that, and it'll be a tough task here. Odunze should see a bunch of All Pro CB1 Quinyon Mitchell on the perimeter. The Bears only project for 18.5 points.
Tre Tucker
The Raiders are massive dogs and are 2nd in neutral pass rate this month. Targets and air yards are available. Now, how valuable they are is a fair counter. Tucker was missed a couple times for could-be long TDs. Just remember that, to some degree, could-be long TDs predict actual long TDs. He's had 12.6 and 14.1 expected half PPR points without Meyers and is the WR33 in usage this month. Tucker had 3 receptions on 8 targets against the Chargers in Week 3 with Jakobi Meyers active.
DJ Moore - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Keenan Allen
Alec Pierce
Even after a season-low 4.2 expected half PPR points, Pierce is still the WR19 on WR26 usage this month. The Chiefs are awesome on the boundary but so are the Texans with CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. Pierce has 0-3 receptions in all of his career games against Houston.
Jauan Jennings
He's the WR16 on WR24 usage this month. The 49ers have everyone healthy, but Jennings is still targeted often and is fighting dudes off on tape, even with his nuts being attacked. Jennings faces a tougher matchup in Cleveland, where there is going to be weather. I worry about this version of Brock Purdy missing too many throws there.
Jakobi Meyers
DK Metcalf - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Chimere Dike
Without Calvin Ridley (IR) and Elic Ayomanor, Dike had a season-high 11.7 expected half PPR points plus a punt return touchdown. Cam Ward is playing a bit better recently, and Dike has separated from the other receivers on tape. He's still only the WR59 on WR52 usage this month, but there's at least a little light at the end of the tunnel now. The Jaguars are also the most pass-funnel defense per neutral pass rate allowed.
Parker Washington
Greg Dortch
Kayshon Boutte
Ricky Pearsall
Andrei Iosivas
Jayden Higgins
Jordan Addison
Luther Burden - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 13 TE Rankings
Trey McBride
Travis Kelce - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE7 on TE3 usage this month. The Cowboys are 8th-worst in allowing TE receptions with underwhelming LB and S play. They also look like a pass-funnel with their DT depth. It's a great spot in a dome here.
Brock Bowers - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE3 on TE2 usage this month, but the gap between him and McBride has been pretty large with the Raiders somehow getting worse. Hopefully the new play caller will get Bowers the ball more consistently in ways that doesn't require the TE lining up at X receiver. That's a lot to ask, even for someone as talented as him. The Raiders are projected for 16.0 points.
George Kittle
There's nothing bad with Kittle, but Brock Purdy is not playing well on his toe and now the balls will flutter more in Cleveland weather against a very good defense. The 49ers are only projected for 21.5 points.
Mark Andrews - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The worst defense against TEs since at least 2007 is this year's Bengals. They're allowing 19.3 half PPR points per game!!! The next closest? 2019 Cardinals at 17.3. The Ravens are projected for the most points of the week, so this is as clean as it gets for Andrews in the year of our lord.
Tyler Warren - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE12 on TE4 usage this month, profiling as a buy low candidate in an offense that's still very good despite hitting a bit of a wall. The Colts' WRs will have a tougher matchup against the Texans CBs than Warren does over the middle, though it's still not an easy matchup.
Oronde Gadsden - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE14 on TE5 usage this month.
Kyle Pitts
Juwan Johnson - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Brenton Strange - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Dallas Goedert - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Colston Loveland - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Harold Fannin
Theo Johnson - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Isiah Likely
The worst defense against TEs since at least 2007 is this year's Bengals. They're allowing 19.3 half PPR points per game!!! The next closest? 2019 Cardinals at 17.3. The Ravens are projected for the most points of the week, so this is as clean as it gets.
Cade Otton
Zach Ertz
Mason Taylor
Week 13 QB Rankings
Patrick Mahomes - 23.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 4th-highest in zone coverage snaps, and the Chiefs are much better against zone. Dallas also added beef to their DL, while the Chiefs can't run the ball on early downs, so this should be the most obvious pass-forward game plan of the year. Dallas is allowing 25.3 fantasy points to QBs, which is 3.4 more than the 2nd-worst unit. On top of that, Mahomes has the 2nd-most scrambles against zone (32) and will run more in important games. Every game remaining is important given their current record.
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles haven't been able to run it well all year long, and last week, they passed the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations. Coincidence? I'm not sure. The pass game is largely working right now, and then Hurts finishes off drives with Tush Pushes. That's great for Hurts in fantasy if it continues. The Eagles are 6th in projected points (25.75) against a Bears defense who is limping into the holidays.
Lamar Jackson - 22.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
He's not fully healthy on tape and seems less certain to take off as a scrambler. Now, maybe that changes against a division rival with another few days of rest, but Jackson just may be 85% of himself this year with that hamstring injury. The Ravens offense as a whole is also down. Their OL is worse, specifically hurting the success rate of the run game, and the absence of Rashod Bateman takes away an explosive pass threat. The good news is the Bengals defense gave up a long time ago and won't have their top edge rushers again here. If he doesn't go crazy on Thanksgiving Night, it's time to reset expectations for fantasy and the Ravens' Super Bowl chances. For now, I'm leaving the light on.
Josh Allen
Matthew Stafford
The Panthers won't have CB1 Jaycee Horn (concussion) or S Tre'Von Moehrig (nut puncher), and Stafford looks like the MVP.
Drake Maye
Dak Prescott - 18.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
It's not great timing to not have LT Tyler Guyton (ankle) with Chris Jones able to move across the formation, but the rest of the OL is healthy, and now Prescott has two elite WRs. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb provide far more explosiveness to the offense, but the Chiefs do have two stud CBs on the perimeter. They're a bit weaker over the middle in coverage, ultimately checking in at 17th in success rate against all plays. DC Steve Spagnuolo will surprise inexperienced QBs and OCs, but that's absolutely not the Cowboys right now. Their scheme is excellent, and there's only so much time to have a funky game plan defensively with this game on Thursday. The Cowboys are projected for 24.25 points at home. I can see it shooting out even more than the 52.0 game total would indicate. Offenses are rolling.
Justin Herbert
Bo Nix
Sam Darnold
Jaxson Dart
Jordan Love - 16.8 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Lions have a good defense, but Love is PFF's QB1 against man coverage with a solid 7.8 YPA. The Packers won't have Tucker Kraft, who was there top man coverage beater, but the Lions let their CBs live on islands in man coverage and that's where Love launches passes. That tendency has allowed the Lions to be 5th-best against the run and 17th-best against the pass, per EPA. Hopefully Matthew Golden (wrist) can suit up as a rotational deep threat because it's a perfect script for him. Love went 16-of-22 for 188 yards and 2 scores in Week 1 against them.
Joe Burrow - 18.3 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
By most accounts, Burrow is coming back earlier than expected. He was a full participant in practice, but I'd be surprised if he was moving around as well as usual. That's important against an emerging Ravens defense, and if Brock Purdy's injury is a sign, then Burrow could have worse accuracy and arm strength for the time being. The offense will also lose some explosiveness without Tee Higgins, so a 22.5-point team total as 7-point road dogs checks out. The Bengals should be really one diminsional, however. Baltimore is 1st in rushing EPA allowed since Week 5 with Kyle Hamilton playing in the box, while still just 10th best through the air. There should be enough volume for fringe QB1 numbers.
Jared Goff - 17.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Packers played zone against the Lions the entire game in Week 1 and didn't blitz him either. It worked! His 5 sacks all came on 4-man rushes where his OL largely just lost one-on-one matchups. Since then, Goff is 3rd in YPA (8.5) against zone non-blitzes, however, and Goff will be back inside where his tiny California hands can stay cozy. Hopefully C Graham Glasgow (DNPx2) and backup LG Kayode Awosika can hold up with Micah Parsons being moved to all gaps based on matchups. Green Bay has only allowed 2 QBs (Dak Prescott in OT and Jacoby Brissett) to reach 226+ passing yards this year.
Jacoby Brissett
Trevor Lawrence
Caleb Williams
Daniel Jones
Tua Tagovailoa
Baker Mayfield
C.J. Stroud
Brock Purdy
Cam Ward
Bryce Young
Marcus Mariota
Kirk Cousins
Tyler Shough
Aaron Rodgers
Tyrod Taylor
Geno Smith
Max Brosmer
Shedeur Sanders
Week 13 Defenses
The top defenses are the Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, Falcons, Jaguars, and Rams. The next tier would be the Patriots, Dolphins, 49ers, Eagles, and Buccaneers.