Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Dec 8th 2022

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.

Week 14 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen - Bills vs. NYJ (26.75 points, -9.5 spread)

2. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ NYG (26.0, -7.0)

3. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ DEN (26.5, -9.5)

4. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ LAC (27.75, -3.0)

The betting markets don't seem to care, but LT Terron Armstead was a DNP on Wednesday after missing Week 13. Tua (ankle) and Jaylen Waddle (leg) were able to get in limited practices.

5. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. MIA (24.75, +3.0)

Pro Bowl caliber C Corey Linsley (concussion) was limited on Wednesday, as was Mike Williams (ankle). RT Trey Pipkins (knee) was a DNP.

6. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. HOU (31.0, -16.5)

7. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. CLE (26.5, -6.0)

8. Jared Goff - Lions vs. MIN (27.5, -2.5)

9. Kyler Murray - Cardinals vs. NE (21.5, +1.5)

10. Derek Carr - Raiders @ LAR (25.25, -6.0)

11. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ DET (25.0, +2.5)

12. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. CAR (23.75, -4.0)

13. Redacted QB - Browns @ CIN (20.5, +6.0)

14. Daniel Jones - Giants vs. PHI (19.0, +7.0)

15. Mac Jones - Patriots @ ARI (23.0, -1.5)

16. Ryan Tannehill - Titans vs. JAX (22.5, -4.0)

17. Tyler Huntley - Ravens @ PIT (17.25, +2.5)

18. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ TEN (18.5, +4.0)

19. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. BAL (19.75, -2.5)

20. Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. TB (20.25, -3.5)

21. Sam Darnold - Panthers @ SEA (19.75, +4.0)

22. Tom Brady - Bucs @ SF (16.75, +3.5)

23. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. KC (17.0, +9.5)

24. Mike White - Jets @ BUF (17.25, +9.5)

25. Davis Mills - Texans @ DAL (14.5, +16.5)

26. Baker Mayfield? - Rams vs. LV (19.25, +6.0)

Week 14 RB Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Austin Ekeler

  2. Josh Jacobs

  3. Christian McCaffrey - Complete focal point with Brock Purdy at QB, leading to season-high 28.5 expected half PPR points in Week 13. Time to eat, pending tendinitis giving out.

  4. Derrick Henry - Only 13.3 expected half PPR points during his dry spell of 5 games with an injured OL. A home game as 4-point favorites against the Jaguars might be the right medicine to heal the ailing King. In his last 6 games against Jacksonville, Henry has averaged 145 rushing yards and 2.0 rushing touchdowns. Is that good?

  5. Rhamondre Stevenson - Assumes Damien Harris (quad) is out.

  6. Dalvin Cook

  7. Joe Mixon

  8. James Conner - RB4 on RB6 fantasy usage over the last month.

  9. Tony Pollard - Bank-ably efficient on RB11 fantasy usage over the last month. This week, Pollard gets to go nuclear against the league's worst fantasy RB defense attached to a league-high 31.0-point team total. Both Pollard (explosiveness) and Ezekiel Elliott (RB22 fantasy usage over the last month) have upside as top-15 plays. This is a rare situation.

  10. D'Andre Swift - In his first game completely off the injury report, Swift had a season-high 20.0 expected half PPR points despite the Lions sticking with a 3-RB rotation. Swift is catching swing passes and there's enough red zone opportunities in this explosive Lions offense (3rd-highest team total of Week 14) for both Swift and Gyration King Jamaal Williams to pay off as upside fantasy RB2s. Things can get very fun for both RBs if Justin Jackson gets removed from the rotation.

  11. Ezekiel Elliott - See RB12 Tony Pollard.

  12. Saquon Barkley (Questionable)

  13. Nick Chubb - Usage (RB27 over the last month) is way down recently with offense plateauing, and it won't get easier this week on the road against the Bengals.

  14. Travis Etienne

  15. Miles Sanders

  16. Jamaal Williams - See RB13 D'Andre Swift.

  17. Isiah Pacheco - The Chiefs continue to figure out their RB rotation on the fly. Last week, both Pacheco (10.5 expected half PPR) and Jerick McKinnon (season-high 13.9 expected half PPR) got home but in new ways. Pacheco played more passing downs than usual, while McKinnon handled all 3 of the inside the 5-yard line opportunities. Pacheco still is the preferred early-down grinder, but McKinnon was utilized as a bellcow down the stretch last year and his usage is trending up. It's hard to be confident either way. All we can rely on is the Chiefs scoring real life points (6th in implied points this week). The 9.5-point spread leans Pacheco's way this week.

  18. D'Onta Foreman (Questionable) - Surprised to see CAR only 4-point road dogs to SEA, but we'll take it. Foreman has the most drastic game script splits, averaging 16.5 expected half PPR points in wins or one-score losses and 6.8 expected half PPR points in big losses. Hopefully this game stays tight as expected, and Foreman's foot doesn't flare up.

  19. Najee Harris - The Steelers are improving but still underwhelming on offense, leading to just four (4!!!!) inside the 5-yard line carries for Harris. Last week while playing through an oblique injury, Harris had a mid 8.5 expected half PPR points with tone-setting Benny Snell mixing in. This offense isn't good enough for Harris to be an RB2 if there are 3 RBs. Look for full practices before having any faith.

  20. Dameon Pierce - Getting Davis Mills back in the starting lineup is (somehow) a win, but the Texans have a 14.5-point team total, which is one of the very worst of any team all year. There could be more Dare Ogunbowale than we'd want.

  21. Raheem Mostert - This is a very flimsy situation. Last week, Mostert started, handled 7-of-10 RB touches, and out-snapped Jeff Wilson 28 to 17. That all happened in clear negative game script, something we shouldn't expect in Week 14 as 3-point favorites against the Chargers' No. 29 rushing EPA defense. Los Angeles has 4 defensive tackles and Joey Bosa on injured reserve!!! Hopefully LT Terron Armstead suits up because the matchup and 27.75-point team total are intriguing for Miami backs. Which one takes advantage? Hopefull news helps us out later in the week.

  22. Jeff Wilson - See RB21 Raheem Mostert.

  23. Zonovan Knight - Michael Carter (ankle) was left off the injury report, but when asked about Knight's usage with Carter back, Jets HC Robert Saleh said "He's not going anywhere." If anything, expect Ty Johnson to be phased out. Knight and Carter it is.

  24. Rachaad White - He'll be higher if Leonard Fournette (full-limited-DNP) is ruled out with a foot injury. ... He started in his Post-Bye Rookie Bump and scored the game-winning TD, but Leonard Fournette is very much involved, actually out-xFPing White 16.0 to 13.9. With the Bucs likely holding onto this 1-2 punch at RB, it's hard to get too hyped this week with the Bucs owning the 2nd-lowest team total of the week. White will need receptions. Fournette will need TDs. Don't expect efficiency.

  25. Devin Singletary - For the first time, the Bills used Post-Bye Rookie Bump James Cook (16.5 expected half PPR) and Nyheim Hines in non-garbage time last week. That obviously hurts Singletary, who still started and brings the most reliability on the ground. As he did last week, Singletary was the one to see the goal-line carry and close out the game in the 4th quarter. There's a very low floor now, but Singletary still has reasonable touchdown odds.

  26. James Cook - See RB28 Devin Singletary.

  27. Tony Jones - Adam Schefter reports he'll be the starter over Travis Homer, who has been a passing-down RB for most of the season.

  28. Latavius Murray - You know what you're getting yourself into.

  29. Leonard Fournette (Questionable) - See RB24 Rachaad White.

  30. Travis Homer - This assumes Kenneth Walker (DNPx3) and Deejay Dallas (DNPx3) are out, leaving Homer and Tony Jones Jr as the Seahawks primary backs. Homer is a passing-down back with some juice. He's the sleeper of the week with Seattle projecting reasonably well as a team at home.

  31. Jerick McKinnon - See RB21 Isiah Pacheco.

  32. Michael Carter - See RB26 Zonovan Knight.

  33. Cam Akers - The roles are pretty straight-forward. Akers is the early-down back who benefits in positive scripts. Kyren Williams is the passing-down back who benefits in negative scripts. The Rams are 6-point dogs against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Neither are strong flex plays.

  34. Kyren Williams - See RB32 Cam Akers.

  35. Samaje Perine - This assumes Joe Mixon (concussion) is back.

  36. JK Dobbins - He's likely active and a part of the Ravens 3-RB committee. No thanks.

  37. Gus Edwards - JK Dobbins is activated off injured reserve. ... An inefficient Week 14 that was further spoiled by Lamar Jackson's early-game injury. When in negative scripts, the Ravens pivot to more Kenyan Drake and even Justice Hill. Gus Bus hits the gas in positive scripts. A 17.25-point team total and 2-point road dog spread work against him in Week 14. Drake had 8.2 expected half PPR points in a similar spot last week.

  38. Kenyan Drake - See RB36 Gus Edwards.

  39. Chuba Hubbard

  40. Kareem Hunt

  41. Kenneth Gainwell

  42. Alexander Mattison

  43. Jaylen Warren

  44. Dontrell Hilliard

  45. Jordan Mason - Played ahead of TDP in Week 13.

  46. Joshua Kelley - My favorite waiver wire add of the week.

  47. Nyheim Hines

  48. Ameer Abdullah

Week 14 WR Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Tyreek Hill - No Derwin James now for the Chargers.

  2. Davante Adams

  3. Justin Jefferson

  4. Amon-Ra St. Brown

  5. Stefon Diggs

  6. CeeDee Lamb - No Texans CB1 Derek Stingley (hamstring) still.

  7. Ja'Marr Chase

  8. A.J. Brown

  9. DK Metcalf (Questionable) - Up to WR4 overall usage over the last 4 weeks, and an injured Ken Walker could mean more passes. He did go full-limited-DNP in practice this week, however.

  10. Garrett Wilson - Averaging 18.8 expected half PPR points in 5 games without Zach Wilson.

  11. Christian Kirk - Offenses facing TEN have the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL. Kirk is top-12 in usage. Let's ride.

  12. Chris Godwin - Elite pass rush and potential negative script set up 10ish short targets to Godwin, even if the team total is really low.

  13. Tee Higgins

  14. Jaylen Waddle - No Derwin James now for the Chargers.

  15. Tyler Lockett - DK Metcalf, Ken Walker, and Will Dissly are dealing with injuries. Lockett is healthy.

  16. Keenan Allen - Big Mike is back.

  17. Mike Williams (Questionable) - He was limited-full-full in practice this week. They desperately need him to beat the Dolphins man-heavy looks. I'm expecting a shootout.

  18. DeAndre Hopkins

  19. JuJu Smith-Schuster

  20. DeVonta Smith

  21. DJ Moore - Betting on a higher-than-expected team total and Sam Darnold proving to be the Panthers' best QB.

  22. Marquise Brown

  23. Amari Cooper (Questionable) - He thinks he'll play despite resting a lot this week. NFL Network's James Palmer believes there could be a snap count limitation.

  24. Gabe Davis

  25. Deebo Samuel

  26. Brandon Aiyuk

  27. Jerry Jeudy - Courtland Sutton (hamstring) is out.

  28. Zay Jones - Offenses facing TEN have the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL. Bounce back week.

  29. Mike Evans - Deep targets haven't hit as hard with bad OL and worse Brady. It doesn't help that the Bucs' team total is tied for the 2nd-lowest on the week in San Francisco.

  30. Michael Gallup - Has looked better recently and the team total is a total outlier at 31.0 points.

  31. George Pickens - Monitor Diontae Johnson's status after he went limited-DNP-limited (hip) in practice. Pickens had a brutal Week 13 but has a squeeky wheel narrative based on post-game comments. More importantly, the Ravens defense is owning against the run, setting up an above-average amount of passes against them in neutral situations. He was one of Danny Kelly's Guys of Week 14.

  32. D.J. Chark - This is a bet on Jameson Williams continuing to be brought on slowly (which is smart). Chark is the primary deep threat on the 3rd-highest team total team of the week.

  33. Adam Thielen

  34. Darius Slayton

  35. Donovan Peoples-Jones - Amari Cooper is suddenly questionable.

  36. Corey Davis

  37. Robert Woods - Treylon Burks (concussion) is out.

  38. Diontae Johnson (Questionable)

  39. DeVante Parker - Jakobi Meyers (concussion) hasn't practiced.

  40. Isaiah McKenzie

  41. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Kadarius Toney (hamstring) was limited on Wednesday. This assumes he's out, which could not be true. I'll update later.

  42. Joshua Palmer - Big Mike is nearing return.

  43. Demarcus Robinson

  44. Mack Hollins

  45. Van Jefferson

  46. Terrace Marshall

  47. Tyler Boyd

  48. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - Treylon Burks is out.

  49. Kadarius Toney (Questionable) - He was limited all week.

  50. Greg Dortch (Questionable) - Rondale Moore looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.

  51. Elijah Moore

  52. Julio Jones

  53. Tyquan Thornton

  54. Chris Moore - Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks are out.

  55. Phillip Dorsett - Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks are out.

  56. Marvin Jones

  57. Devin Duvernay

  58. Nelson Agholor

  59. Quez Watkins

  60. Isaiah Hodgins

Week 14 TE Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Travis Kelce

  2. Mark Andrews - Scoring opportunities will take a hit, but target volume as a whole may stay strong. In Tyler Huntley starts, Andrews' target share goes from 24% to 29%, and the Ravens are more likely to pass in neutral and negative game scripts in general, something we should expect more often with a backup. Huntley is a quality backup. Andrews should be more than fine, as long as he plays better himself. Too many drops this year.

  3. Dalton Schultz - 31.0 team total. Let's ride.

  4. T.J. Hockenson

  5. Pat Freiermuth

  6. David Njoku (Questionable) - He was left off the injury report after a week of limited practices. Amari Cooper is also dealing with injuries.

  7. George Kittle - 5.7 expected half PPR per game since CMC trade. More mouths than touches available, so Kittle is solely a big play threat right now (sadly).

  8. Foster Moreau - Darren Waller nearing a return.

  9. Gerald Everett

  10. Dawson Knox

  11. Greg Dulcich

  12. Noah Fant

  13. Hunter Henry

  14. Evan Engram

  15. Tyler Conklin

  16. Austin Hooper - Plenty of targets recently but splitting time (22-of-35 Week 13 routes) with the burstier rookie, Chigoziem Okonkwo (20 routes). No Treylon Burks.

  17. Tyler Higbee

  18. Daniel Bellinger - 83% routes in Week 13 return. Good for a rookie.

  19. Chigoziem Okonkwo - See TE16 Austin Hooper.

  20. Mike Gesicki

  21. Jordan Akins - 25-of-42 routes in Week 13.

  22. Mitchell Wilcox - The Hayden Hurst (out) replacement.

  23. Cameron Brate - Likely back after missing with illness. Expect a TE-committee.

  24. Cade Otton

  25. Isaiah Likely

Week 14 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The defenses of the week are the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, and 49ers.

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.