Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 13 Recap
Week 14 RB Rankings
Jahmyr Gibbs - 117.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB4 usage this month with Dan Campbell calling plays and using Gibbs at a higher rate than Monty. This is an eruption spot, though the Cowboys run defense is much better with Quinnen Williams and more 5-man fronts. That's especially true with Gibbs running behind multiple backup interior OL. Gibbs might need to get to the perimeter and catch passes more than usual to pay off, but that's easy enough to do. The Lions project for 28.75 points (2nd) and likely won't have Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is 2nd in expected TDs among WRs.
De'Von Achane - 113.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB2 on RB2 usage this month, but CMC is on bye! This is an eruption spot against the Jets, who have been destroyed by RBs without DT Quinnen Williams. That was 27.8 half PPR points from Bijan Robinson, 21.8 from Derrick Henry, and 29.8 from TreVeyon Henderson in the last 3 weeks. It's go time, even if the Dolphins' team total is only at 21.75 points.
James Cook - 96.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot vs. the Bengals at home with a 29.0-point team total. Cincy is allowing 2.6 more fantasy points per game than the 2nd-worst fantasy RB defense, too. Last week, the Bills went extremely run heavy (20% neutral pass rate), and it worked. A similar game plan would make sense. That led to a season-high 26.0 expected half PPR points for Cook.
Bijan Robinson
He's the RB5 on RB7 usage this month in a limited offense. This week, the Falcons only project for 18.5 points against a great Seahawks defense that kicks ass up front. I'm buying his receiving, though. Kirk Cousins wants to play conservative ball, and the Seahawks defense plays a lot of zone coverage. RB target shares go from 9% against man coverage up to 21% against zone coverage. That’s especially true for the Falcons with Drake London (knee) missing practice on Wednesday. Seattle’s pass rush is dangerous, and I anticipate a lot of screens and check downs while they likely chase points. The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-most RB receptions this year.
Jonathan Taylor - 96.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB3 usage this month, even when Indianapolis has made more mistakes than usual recently. The Colts are 8th in projected points (24.5) in another difficult matchup up front. The Jaguars have only allowed 64 rushing YPG to RBs this season, easily the best in the NFL. We'll see if EDGE Travon Walker returns here.
Derrick Henry - 86.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot against a Steelers defense that was crushed by the Bills last week and won't have 1st-round DT Derrick Harmon again. The Ravens are 9th in projected points (24.25), and they at least moved the ball last week before their classic back-breaking negative plays. Henry is hurting with his short-yardage success rate this year but still looks fast when given some space. He's even more boom-bust than usual. He's the RB9 on RB8 usage this month with Lamar Jackson technically back.
Josh Jacobs - 79.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Packers are 6th in projected points (25.5), and the Bears haven't had LBs for weeks. If he's healthy, Jacobs has a lot of upside here. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 18.3 half PPR points and then split touches with Emanuel Wilson coming off injury on Thanksgiving. He has 10 days to get healthier and seemed to play well in his return.
Bucky Irving - 71.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Rachaad White started, but Irving won the hot hand, leading to 12.6 expected half PPR points in his return. It'd be a surprise if things go opposite to that now with the Bucs needing wins and Irving looking healthy. The Bucs are 7th in projected points (25.25) at home against the Saints.
Javonte Williams - 80.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB10 usage this month, as a buy low candidate. The Cowboys are 5th in projected points (25.75), and Williams played 78% of the snaps last week. That's a great combination, even against a Lions defense that's stingy against the run because they play a lot of base defense (3 LBs) and dare teams to throw. We'll see if they have the horses on defense to slow down an on-fire Dallas offense.
Kyren Williams - 81.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Rams are 3rd in projected points (28.25), which has saved Williams' fringe RB1 status because he continues to split drives with Blake Corum with few exceptions. Both are running well, and the Cardinals are quite up-and-down on defense due to injuries. Williams is only the RB14 on RB30 usage this month, totaling 6.4 to 13.7 expected half PPR points in 4-straight weeks. Sean McVay said that trend won't change. He likes the results.
Breece Hall - 84.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's averaging 13.9 expected half PPR points in 3 games with Tyrod Taylor versus 12.0 with Justin Fields. Hall is more likely to score at the goal line and catch passes with the veteran, so that's not a surprise. The Jets OL can move people, and Tyrod is capable enough to evaluate the young talent, including Hall. The Dolphins have vastly improved on defense throughout the year, and the Jets only project for 18.75 points, however.
Chase Brown - 72.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot against the run-funnel Bills, though the Bengals are unlikely to fully lean into the ground game with their top-3 pass game players healthy here. Still, Buffalo is 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs, and Brown is playing well behind a slightly-improved OL. He's still losing very real snaps to Samaje Perine, but Joe Burrow also looked fairly healthy in his return. Brown is averaging 14.4 expected half PPR points in his last 3 games with Perine and 16.7 expected half PPR points in his 3 games with Burrow. Both are fringe RB1 numbers.
RJ Harvey
Last week was a season-high 17.0 expected half PPR points because he handled all 3 goal-line opportunities. That feels stable, given Harvey's contact balance and density versus Jaleel McLaughlin. That should come in handy with the Broncos 10th in projected points (24.0) in Las Vegas, who just let Kimani Vidal run all over them.
Ashton Jeanty - 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Raiders are 2nd-to-last in projected points (16.5) with the OL somehow getting worse. Luckily for Jeanty, he didn't come off the field last week, and the new OC ran the ball on 67% of their neutral plays and then threw Jeanty the ball a bunch afterwards. Is that a good strategy? Of course, not. But he is at least getting the rock. He's the RB17 on RB11 usage this month. That seems about right.
Kenneth Walker - 62.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 5 games since the bye, Walker has been between 10.2 and 13.8 expected half PPR points. Last week's split was more even, but two weeks ago, Walker was starting to separate. Sometimes the Vikings' funky defense gets things out of sort, so there may be more upside than his RB23 on RB26 usage status from the past month would indicate. The Seahawks are 4th in projected points (26.0) against a run-funnel Falcons defense without a lot to play for.
Quinshon Judkins - 88.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Nothing has changed. The QB and OL is awful, and Judkins is very good. He's settled in between 11.3 and 13.8 expected half PPR points in 4-straight games, leading to RB27 on RB20 usage this month. The Titans have a monster at DT and are more pass-funnelly than most, but Cleveland has no choice but to hide their pass game right now.
Saquon Barkley - 67.5 rushing yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB38 on RB18 usage this month. The scheme is tragic. Their TE2 can't block. Their OL is injured. And Jalen Hurts steals the goal line opportunities. Barkley still looks good on tape, however, and the Chargers' weakness on defense has been perimeter runs this year. The odds of an explosive are slightly up in this matchup on 10 days rest, but the hope for consistency is long gone. The Eagles only project for 21.75 points and probably should just pass the ball way more than they have been.
D'Andre Swift
He's the RB25 on RB27 usage this month because the Bears are using a near 50/50 split. Both can score goal-line TDs, catch passes, and rip explosives, but the hot hand creates some uncertainty. Luckily, the Bears' OL and scheme are excellent. Swift is making guys miss in their outside-zone scheme, and they have legit power movers when they run man schemes. Running right through the Eagles was extremely impressive. Another difficult task awaits with the Packers and a 19.0-point team total, but it's getting easier to trust the run game now. Swift is averaging 14.8 half PPR points in 7 games with Kyle Monangai since the bye.
Travis Etienne
There's enough room for both to be fantasy viable, given Jacksonville is 5th in RB usage this month. But Etienne did have a season-low 6.5 expected half PPR points last week with Bhayshul Tuten subbing in near the goal line. The OC said they like Tuten's contact balance down there, so this could be the new reality. Etienne has still be rock solid this year and is still the RB11 on RB15 usage this month even with last week's dud, but he's far more of an RB2 than a total must start for great fantasy teams. The Jaguars are projected for 23.0 points in a crucial game with the Colts, who don't have DeForest Buckner or Sauce Gardner.
Woody Marks - 61.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's been running poorly and the OL has been worse run-blocking than in pass protection, but Marks is the RB16 in usage this month. He dealt with a foot injury last week, though returned. This week's matchup with the Chiefs is difficult with Chris Jones being a total mismatch between the tackles, and the Texans' 19.25-point team total reflects that. Still, there's some buy low in here.
Zach Charbonnet
He's just the RB31 on RB35 usage this month, but the Seahawks are projected for 26.0 points and he handled the goal-line rep last week again.
Kareem Hunt - 49.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB6 usage this month, as a short-yardage hammer and reasonable pass protector for passing downs. Even with Isiah Pacheco back last week, Hunt played on 64% of snaps, handling 12.8 expected half PPR points. That's probably close to his ceiling moving forward, and this is another difficult rushing matchup with the Texans' DL on schedule. The Chiefs also have very serious OL injuries right now, too.
Omarion Hampton
It's been nearly 2 full months since he's last played, while healing a fractured leg. Hampton getting full-time snaps right away would be a surprise, especially with Kimani Vidal playing well in his place. The Chargers also have an 18.75-point team total against the Eagles with Justin Herbert unlikely to operate under center. It's not a clean spot behind a terrible OL.
Jaylen Warren
It's an unwatchable offense, but there are RB touches up for grabs.
Kyle Monangai
In 7 games since his Post Bye Rookie Bump with D'Andre Swift healthy, Monangai is averaging 10.4 half PPR points. That's more than enough for FLEX consideration. Last week was his most usage (13.7 expected half PPR points) in a game with Swift, too. The Bears ran right through the Eagles, and that may be their plan of attack again in Green Bay. For what it's worth, the Packers have allowed the 3rd-most RB carries in the last 5 weeks.
Aaron Jones
We'll see if his shoulder injury checks out.
Zonovan Knight
We'll see about Trey Benson and Emari Demercado, but without them, Knight has been the early-down hammer and goal-line back. He's been the RB26 on RB29 usage this month, while the offense has remained functional with Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals get another nasty matchup up front with the Rams, who are 4th-best against fantasy RBs this year.
Chris Rodriguez
He's the goal line back but in a 3-back committee, but that has at least led to 12.1 and 8.9 expected half PPR points in back-to-back games with Marcus Mariota playing fine-enough ball. The Vikings have been great against RBs during the Brian Flores era, however.
Bhayshul Tuten
He had the goal-line reps last week but is only the RB43 on RB45 usage this month as a distant 1b on the ground to Travis Etienne.
David Montgomery - 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Over the past month, Gibbs has averaged 17.6 expected half PPR points to Monty's 7.6. That's a largely split than normal with Dan Campbell calling plays in an imperfect offense that can't run up the gut as well as before due to IOL injuries.
Devin Neal
He's had 9.8 and 9.2 expected half PPR points without Alvin Kamara and played 82% of snaps last week. Neal is a quality backup with high reliability. That said, the ceiling is low given his mediocre athleticism behind a very bad OL. The Saints only project for 17.25 points against the pass-funnel Buccaneers. It's a terrible spot.
Blake Corum
He's the RB46 on RB44 usage this month, but is coming off his best game and remains in a drive-by-drive rotation with Kyren Williams. The Rams' team total sits at 28.25 points, so there are worse blind dart throws for a TD.
Tony Pollard - 52.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
No.
Tyler Allgeier
Kenneth Gainwell
He's the RB21 on RB28 usage this month, but the Steelers only project for 18.25 points against the Ravens this week.
Samaje Perine
He had a season-high 13.1 expected half PPR points last week.
Tyjae Spears - 45.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Isiah Pacheco - 39.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Keaton Mitchell
Kimani Vidal
Week 14 WR Rankings
Puka Nacua - 91.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cardinals defense could be without DT Waler Nolen and EDGE Josh Sweat up front. Last year without them, Nacua dropped a 10-129-0 receiving line on 14 targets.
George Pickens - 81.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Lions CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder) was just placed on IR, and they typically play a lot of base defense with their CBs playing on islands. This is an elite spot for both of the Cowboys WRs. Pickens is the WR1 on WR7 usage this month, setting a season-high with 17.9 expected half PPR points just last week. Everything about this is real.
CeeDee Lamb - 80.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Lions CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder) was just placed on IR, and they typically play a lot of base defense with their CBs playing on islands. This is an elite spot for both of the Cowboys WRs. Lamb is the WR10 on WR9 usage this month, losing plenty of points to drops. He was awesome last week though.
Jameson Williams - 83.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot against the Cowboys. The Lions are 2nd in projected points (28.75), and since the DT Quinnen Williams trade, offenses facing the Cowboys are passing the ball at the highest rate. That makes sense with how bad the Cowboys DBs are versus their DTs. Without Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, we're ran out of options to not have a bunch of faith in Jamo.
Rashee Rice - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Texans are trending towards not having LT Josh Simmons (IR), RG Trey Smith, and RT Jawaan Taylor against these alien Texans DEs. The only path forward is quick passes and scramble drills. Houston does play a lot of zone without blitzing, and in those settings this year, Rice has a 31% target share and 3.2 YPRR. Now, the Texans have studs in the secondary, so we should re-set expectations versus those elite numbers, but this is a style of play that generally works towards Rice's skillset underneath.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 92.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a complete sell out by the Vikings' FS to shade towards JSN's side. That's a big deal after leading the NFL in deep receiving production to date. Hopefully that's not a sign for things to come in a very balanced offense, but JSN's production speaks for itself. The Falcons can run some funky things like Vikings DC Brian Flores did last week, and they have CB1 A.J. Terrell and FS Jessie Bates to work against him. In fact, Atlanta has allowed the fewest YAC to WRs this year. They try to let everyone else beat them but WRs. Easier said than done with JSN right now.
Ja'Marr Chase - 88.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for 25ish degrees with snow.
The Bills have morphed into a run funnel with their CBs far out-playing their DLs, and Tee Higgins should return to the lineup. Still, Joe Burrow passed the eye test last week and has 10 days to get even better. He had zip and allowed Chase to beat double teams multiple times on key 3rd downs last week. Cincy is only projected for 23.5 points this week, a tad lower than the usual Burrow game. That's the Bills' run-first offense melting clock to blame.
Davante Adams - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Look at this chart, and then the Rams' 28.25-point team total. He's the WR6 on WR12 usage this month, even without the elite target volume of the rest of the fantasy WR1s. He's just peppered at the goal line, and it's working.
Nico Collins - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Things are somewhat clicking in Houston. They are passing slightly more, coming up with some trick plays, and have gotten better protection up front after tinkering with their starting linemen. Collins is a savage on the perimeter and is the WR7 on WR6 usage this month, but he'll be challenged by CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylon Watson this week. It's a mini playoff game against the Chiefs, which should mean doubling down on getting the ball to Collins. The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd-most screen targets to WRs, and Collins can be used there.
Michael Wilson - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: This assumes Marvin Harrison is out after a DNP on Wednesday.
Rams new CB Roger McCreary and SCB/SS Quentin Lake are on IR, so this is the worst their secondary has looked all year. Emmanuel Forbes is starting to show his warts, too. Just ask the Panthers WRs last week. We'll see if Marvin Harrison (heel) is going to play through his new injury, but there is room for multiple pass-catchers to get home here in negative game script. The Cardinals are, easily, the highest neutral pass rate team this month.
Chris Olave - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR12 on WR13 usage this month, and Tyler Shough can actually play. He's spinning the ball downfield and out of structure, and coach Kellen Moore makes sure to get Olave some underneath touches, too. It's a solid setup, especially against a pass-funnel Bucs defense.
Jaylen Waddle - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's slipped to WR26 on WR30 usage this month with the Dolphins using WRs at the lowest rate, but over the entire non-Tyreek sample, he's been more of an upside WR2. This is a good spot against a Jets secondary without Sauce Gardner. Without him, they've been 3rd-worst in yards after the catch per reception, and that's a lot of Waddle's strength in this quick-hitting offense. A Dolphins 21.25-point team total keeps expectations in check, however.
Justin Jefferson - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Who is worse? J.J. McCarthy or this Commanders defense? That's the million dollar question this week. Without CB1 Marshon Lattimore and CB2 Trey Amos, it's close. The Commanders have allowed the most yards after catch per reception and the most yards per catch to WRs, too, so I'm inclined to believe in a relative bounce back spot for Jefferson. The Vikings, at home in a dome, are projected for 21.75 points, which is in line with the league average.
Emeka Egbuka - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's been one of those unimaginable stretches that are easy to overreact to but are just part of fantasy WR play. Egbuka is only the WR29 on WR10 usage this month, but the usage almost always wins out, especially when the receiver is actually good like Egbuka is. Now, Chris Godwin is back and moving well, which means more outside snaps and competition. In 4 games with Godwin but without Mike Evans (like this one most likely), Egbuka has seen 11.5 expected half PPR points (WR19 usage). That was 16.1 expected points without Godwin and Evans (WR5 usage). Big difference!
Weather should be fine here, and the Saints aren't threatening in the secondary. The Bucs are projected for 25.25 points, the 7th most.
Tee Higgins
Update: The forecast calls for 25ish degrees with snow.
We'll see if he's cleared (concussion) after a limited practice Wednesday, but he's been the WR15 per game over the last 365 days even with Joe Burrow missing about half of them.
DeVonta Smith - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Chargers are the best fantasy WR defense, only averaging 19.7 half PPR points per game. They also play the most zone defense, where Brown's struggles with the Eagles has been highlighted more. That said, Brown has been playing better, while the ground game has stagnated. There aren't great answers other than tossing the ball up to these stud WRs. Over the past two years, yards per zone route: Brown (1.8), Smith (2.2).
A.J. Brown - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Chargers are the best fantasy WR defense, only averaging 19.7 half PPR points per game. They also play the most zone defense, where Brown's struggles with the Eagles has been highlighted more. That said, Brown has been playing better, while the ground game has stagnated. There aren't great answers other than tossing the ball up to these stud WRs. Over the past two years, yards per zone route: Brown (1.8), Smith (2.2).
Courtland Sutton - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He can still have huge games with Denver passing downfield this aggressively. Sutton remains their best receiver on tape (easily), and their ground game has regressed recently, which could mean slightly more pass attempts. I'll buy the dip again. He's just the WR35 on WR37 usage this month. It helps that he gets the Raiders secondary in a dome. The Broncos have a 24.0-point team total.
Terry McLaurin - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's only played 5 healthy games, and in them, he's averaged 11.4 expected half PPR points (WR19 usage). Last week was a season-high 27.3 expected half PPR points (WR1 overall usage), however. McLaurin was moving very well, and Marcus Mariota is taking more shots downfield nowadays. The Commanders could be an underrated offense right now with their defense forcing shoutouts, and Mariota continuing to play fairly well aside from a few panicky moments. The problem this week is a Vikings' defense that's been 2nd-best against fantasy WRs. He's a boom-bust WR2/3.
Jakobi Meyers - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for rain.
The Colts have allowed the most screen targets to WRs, and Meyers is seeing some of those already. He's operated as their underneath and intermediate zone beater, and it's worked well. Parker Washington was his primary competition for those looks, and he's now out with a hip injury. Thomas is clearing things out for Meyers as the downfield threat, and the rain should mean a higher rate of passes underneath. He's the WR20 on WR43 usage this month and his feet are certainly wet.
Christian Watson - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for 20ish degrees without snow.
He's been balling on film. Watson is the WR17 on WR26 usage this month, coming off a season-high 16.1 expected half PPR points last week. He's pulling away from defenders on go balls, and Jordan Love is playing like a top-5 QB right now. We'll see if Matthew Golden or Jayden Reed can suit up here, but they can't take him off the field right now. Unfortunately, the Bears did return CB1 Jaylon Johnson and SCB Kyler Gordon last week, so this isn't as easy of a matchup as you'd think based on old school spreadsheets.
Michael Pittman - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for rain.
This has been Pittman's worst stretch while healthy in a very long time. He's just the WR67 on WR54 usage this month, while Alec Pierce has stepped up and Daniel Jones has played worse on a fractured leg. That said, DJ still made plenty of great throws last week and is expected to get better every week. The Jaguars defense has been a pass funnel for most of the year, and they can run funky coverages that could mean more simple underneath passes to Pittman. They are also 5th in two-deep shells. I think the bottom is in.
Alec Pierce - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for rain, which likely hurts someone like Pierce more as the primary downfield option.
He once again made two ridiculous catches last week. Pierce is balling, as the WR19 on WR49 usage this month. The Jaguars are a pass funnel defense in general, so while they've played the most two-shell coverage snaps, they are also 16th in single high coverage snaps, too. That's where Pierce has made the most noise.
Ladd McConkey - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Despite being the WR11 over the past 365 days, McConkey is the WR21 on WR40 usage this month with the Chargers offense playing with one of the worst OLs you'll see. That'll be extra problematic against the Eagles defense with Justin Herbert's broken hand. McConkey will aim to create white on white crime against elite SCB Cooper DeJean. It's a bad matchup all around, which is why the Chargers only project for 18.75 points. That's the same as the Jets...
Adonai Mitchell - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR32 on WR14 usage this month, finding a new starting role with the Jets. Last week was a season-high 15.9 expected half PPR points on a plethora of quick outs and one deep post TD. Tyrod Taylor is starting to evaluate young talent like Mitchell for a reason. The Jets only project for 18.75 points, and the Dolphins defense has stepped up recently.
Zay Flowers - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the damn WR43 per game over the last 365 days. Has anyone ever ranked him that low? When does reality need to set in? Of course, that has been without Lamar Jackson at times, but this version of Lamar isn't fully settled. He's missed a few more throws and not seen open receivers over the middle more this year than last year when he was without question the best QB in the NFL. Hopefully it turns around, but I don't know what has changed to make everything feel worse. Lamar seems about 85-90% of the way there athletically now. He's had 5-100-0, 2-39-1, and 5-73-0 lines against a mediocre Steelers defense recently.
Deebo Samuel - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 5 games with Terry McLaurin, Deebo is averaging 9.9 expected half PPR points (WR27 usage), which is a full 1.0 worse than in the games without him. That makes sense, and was especially true last week when McLaurin was the WR1 overall in usage. The Commanders have also found a RB rotation they like, which means slightly less Deebo in the backfield. This week, the Commanders project for just 20.25 points agains the Vikings' defense, one that's 2nd-best against fantasy WRs this year.
Isaac TeSlaa - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot against the Cowboys. The Lions are 2nd in projected points (28.75), and since the DT Quinnen Williams trade, offenses facing the Cowboys are passing the ball at the highest rate. That makes sense with how bad the Cowboys DBs are versus their DTs. The 3rd-round rookie played 95% of snaps without Amon-Ra St. Brown last week.
DK Metcalf - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 5.1 expected half PPR points in a pathetic Steelers offense with an injured Aaron Rodgers. He's just the WR46 on WR31 usage this month, and I don't see the Steelers turning things around with their OL limping a bit. That's especially true against the improved Ravens defense. Pittsburgh's team total sits at just 18.25 points, the 4th fewest.
Chris Godwin - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll see with Mike Evans (limited), but Godwin was moving well on tape. He just dropped his touchdown target.
Romeo Doubs - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for 20ish degrees without snow.
Brian Thomas - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for rain, which likely hurts someone like BTJ more as the primary downfield option.
In his last 4 healthy games, Thomas is averaging 9.4 half PPR points on 8.8 expected points (WR35 usage). With Jakobi Meyers in the fold, Thomas' role is largely as a downfield threat, meaning there's no floor week to week. He can still absolutely fly and should have random big games as Trevor Lawrence gets more comfortable with Liam Coen, but adjustments need to be made. In 2-WR sets last week, Thomas was behind Parker Washington (hip) until he left that game.
Rome Odunze - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The forecast calls for 20ish degrees without snow.
He's the WR41 on WR16 usage this month. Odunze hasn't been great, and Caleb Williams has missed him for potential explosives. Both will get better eventually. Meanwhile, the Bears have a run-funnel defense with the Packers on deck, and Chicago has been effective and willing to continue running when they can. The team total sits at just 19.0 points, too.
Jayden Higgins - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR24 usage this month, even while rotating snaps some. Higgins makes enough plays, can line up at multiple spots, and has the size to be a red zone threat. The Texans are also 1st in WR usage this month, as they slowly move towards the pass game instead of running the ball. Their OL has been better in protection than as road graders.
Xavier Worthy - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Against zone coverage without a blitz (the way the Texans play), Worthy only has a 1.2 YPRR on a 19% target rate. He'll get jammed by the physicality of the Texans' outside CBs and won't have as many chances of working downfield with the Chiefs' potentially starting 3 backup OL against this Texans' pass rush. It's not a clean spot here. The good news is Worthy has been just missed on downfield shots and those could turn around at any moment.
Jordan Addison - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 4 games with J.J. McCarthy, Addison is averaging 5.4 half PPR points on 9.0 expected half PPR points (WR32 usage). The pass game is still so aggressive that we can't rule out a random big game, but the details are just so messy right now. The good news is they are at home, in a dome, and against a Commanders secondary that's terrible without their top-2 outside CBs.
Devaughn Vele - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR34 on WR34 usage this month, coming down with two impressive grabs in scramble-drill situations last week. Those are impossible to sustain, but at least Tyler Shough is making legit plays and Vele isn't coming off the field without Rashid Shaheed. This week, the Saints have no prayer running it against the Buccaneers, so volume is on Vele's side.
Troy Franklin - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 3.3 expected half PPR points, dropping him WR38 on WR29 usage this month. The matchup is good against the Raiders at least.
Tre Tucker - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR58 on WR33 usage this month, operating as the Raiders WR1 in a very scared-to-compete offense. Tucker can be used in the screen game, and some teams are using CB1s against Brock Bowers now. That could even mean Patrick Surtain on Bowers for some reps. Either way, it's a bad spot on a 16.5 point team total.
Khalil Shakir - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bills are 1st in projected points (29.0), and everyone but the outside WRs get home against the Bengals. Shakir should avoid stud CB1 D.J. Turner by playing in the slot, but SCB Dax Hill is solid enough to not make this a total layup. The Bills are also rotating their receivers. Shakir is only the WR46 per game over the past 365 days.
DJ Moore - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR35 usage this month. This projects as a run-first game plan for the Bears against the Packers, however, and Chicago's team total is at 19.0 points.
John Metchie - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 10.8 expected half PPR points.
Tom Kennedy - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He is Amon-Ra St. Brown's slot replacement, running a route on 81% of dropbacks last week after his injury. His 16% targets per route in that small sample and the nature of this Cowboys' pass funnel defense makes him a reasonable Full PPR dart throw.
Darnell Mooney
He's the WR56 on WR48 usage this month.
Josh Downs
Quentin Johnston - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR67 on WR54 usage this month. Justin Herbert is broken, as is his OL. Now, the Eagles and All Pro CB1 Quinyon Mitchell.
Keenan Allen - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Among qualifying QBs, Shedeur Sanders is dead last in completion percentage (42%) when removing screens. He’s been lucky with some YAC opportunities, but the game plan is extremely balanced right now because the OC doesn’t trust his QB and OL. And he shouldn’t. Sanders is very protective in his decisions, opting for the checkdowns after holding onto the ball for too long. In fact, his 3.6 seconds to throw is by far the highest in the NFL when removing screens. With December weather once again hitting Cleveland, it’s time to get real about what we’re seeing with the 5th-round rookie. There’s a reason why Jerry Jeudy is mad.
Dontayvion Wicks
Pat Bryant - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman - 21.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Luther Burden - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Keon Coleman - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Chimere Dike - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 14 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He can score TDs! Wow!
Tyler Warren - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Jaguars are 2nd-worst against fantasy TEs, which makes sense because they are a pass funnel defense in general with better CBs than SSs.
Brock Bowers - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Raiders are projected for 16.5 points.
Travis Kelce - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Unc still got it. The Texans are elite at CB, FS and DE, but they are just fine at LB. Kelce ate them alive in the playoffs earlier this year (7-117-1 on 8 targets) for this exact reason. The game plan will be extremely quick-hitting, and the Texans do play plenty of zone coverage where Kelce is at his best.
Jake Ferguson - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Over his last 4 games, Ferguson is averaging 10.4 expected half PPR points (TE7 usage) in an elite offense. The Lions play a lot of base defense, which typically leads to more pass attempts and the potential for big plays through the air.
Brenton Strange - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Colts have allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs.
Mark Andrews - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bucs are the 2nd-biggest pass funnel right now.
Dalton Schultz - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE11 on TE5 usage this month, and that's been 9.5 expected half PPR points in 7 games since the bye week (TE8). That's also been 6.9 or more expected points in 5-straight games, too.
Kyle Pitts - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 3 games without Drake London, Pitts has averaged 7.7 expected half PPR points per game (TE14 usage). The matchup has pros and cons. First, the Falcons are projected for just 18.75 points, but the Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-most yards to TEs this year.
Darren Waller - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In 4 healthy games, Waller has averaged 11.6 half PPR points on 7.3 expected half PPR points (TE17 usage). He nearly scored a TD last week despite only running 69% routes in his return. Waller looked athletic, and they could use him, so I expect his targets and snaps to go up down the stretch. The Jets have allowed the 3rd-most yards after the catch per reception without Sauce Gardner this year. A lot of that is at RB and TE.
Zach Ertz - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It was an extremely odd game with elite CBs on the perimeter, but Ertz had a season-high 17.6 expected half PPR points last week and 11.6 expected points the game prior. Terry McLaurin's return is going to be bad news eventually, however.
Evan Engram - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 11.9 expected half PPR points, and that might not be a coincidence with the run game taking a step back recently. The Broncos are also projected for 24.0 points, too.
AJ Barner - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Harold Fannin - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Dallas Goedert - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Oronde Gadsden - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Eagles are 2nd-best in yards to TEs.
Colston Loveland - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Colby Parkinson - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Mason Taylor - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Mike Gesicki
Week 14 QB Rankings
Josh Allen
He's the QB1 per game this year.
Dak Prescott - 20.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The deep ball is totally back, and the Lions are prone to big plays through the air with backup CBs and a man coverage scheme.
Matthew Stafford
Patrick Mahomes
This is the best passing EPA defense in the NFL, and Mahomes won't have LT Josh Simmons (IR), RG Trey Smith, and RT Jawaan Taylor. Yikes. He has to have magic moments to pull this one off. Good news, he does that more times than not.
Jared Goff - 18.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cowboys have turned into the most pass funnel defense in the NFL this month after the DT Quinnen Williams trade.
Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson
Jacoby Brissett
The Cardinals are 1st in neutral pass rate this month.
Joe Burrow
I worry about Burrow's ability to play at less than 100% when there is snow on the ground, even if he played well last week.
Baker Mayfield
Bo Nix
Jordan Love
Marcus Mariota
Only Justin Fields and Jaxson Dart have more QB designed runs (removing sneaks) than Mariota. As a passer, he's taking more shots, too, so there's legitimate paths to fantasy points with a healthy skill group and a bad offense. Over the past 2 seasons, Mariota is QB11 in EPA per play on QB1 completion percentage over expected. He's playing decently!
Daniel Jones
Trevor Lawrence
Sam Darnold
Caleb Williams
Justin Herbert
Tyrod Taylor
C.J. Stroud
Tyler Shough
Tua Tagovailoa
J.J. McCarthy
Aaron Rodgers
Kirk Cousins
Geno Smith
Shedeur Sanders
Cam Ward
Week 14 Fantasy Defenses
The best fantasy defenses are the Browns and Broncos. The next tier is flat, but includes the Seahawks, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Titans, Commanders, Vikings, Rams, Chiefs, Packers, and Ravens.