Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 15 Recap
Week 16 RB Rankings
Jahmyr Gibbs - 115.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB3 usage this month. During that span, the Lions have been top-5 in neutral pass rate for the first time in forever, but Gibbs is squarely involved there and is taking a bigger share of the carries in 2025 compared to last year. The Lions have the highest team total of the week (29.5) against a banged up Steelers DL.
Bijan Robinson - 133.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB5 usage this month, coming off a season-high 22.8 expected half PPR points. Robinson should take advantage of the Cardinals' weak defense. The Falcons are projected for the 9th-most points (25.25), which isn't the norm!
Christian McCaffrey - 104.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB9 on RB1 usage this month, and the 49ers are 3rd in projected points (26.5) against the Colts, who likely won't have DT DeForest Buckner. The Niners really can't run the ball behind this bad OL, but McCaffrey is 6th in receptions this year ... across all positions.
James Cook - 102.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB2 on RB2 usage this month, and the Bills are 2nd in projected points this week (26.75) against the Browns as 10-point favorites.
De'Von Achane - 115.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
They need to make sure this isn't true, but Quinn Ewers is probably even worse than Tua. At least Achane will be the focal point as usual, and it is an eruption spot against the Bengals' lifeless defense. He's the RB5 on RB28 usage this month after leaving early once. Ewers' arm seemed shot due to injuries based on his college tape, so a quick-hitting offense should remain.
Jonathan Taylor - 112.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB24 on RB9 usage this month. Last week, Taylor had 17.9 expected half PPR points but had little room to run with boxes stacked in Seattle. He's still capable of a big play with Philip Rivers, but the offense is definitely way worse because they can't threaten downfield anymore. The Colts had Ameer Abdullah in the pass game, too. With another week to practice and with a much easier matchup against the 49ers' injured defense, things should look a lot cleaner here for everyone involved. Indianapolis is mathematically alive still.
Derrick Henry - 91.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB10 on RB11 usage this month, and the Ravens are 8th in projected points (25.75) at home against the Patriots as 3-point favorites. Henry probably has 90% straight line speed but seems to be turning a bit slower around the edge. That might explain why Keaton Mitchell is stealing more reps than normal recently. Baltimore's OL also isn't pushing piles as much as before either. Still, Henry is a big play threat with elite short-yardage TD equity now that Lamar Jackson looks healthy. The Patriots have allowed 100+ rushing yards to backfields in 3-straight games without DT Milton Williams. From Doug Kyed, "The Patriots' defense is now 30th in rush EPA/play and 31st in rush success rate since Milton Williams got injured in Week 11."
Josh Jacobs - 87.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 10.1 expected half PPR points while having his snaps limited due to a knee injury. You wouldn't know it on tape though. Jacobs mossed a defender in the end zone and had a few nice runs. He'll have to do so without RT Zach Tom now, but the Bears are much worse than the Broncos on defense. He had 92 total yards and a score against them a few weeks back. Green Bay's 23.5-point team total is above average.
Saquon Barkley - 95.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB8 usage this month, and the Eagles are 5th in projected points (26.0) against the Commanders injured defense and slow linebackers. Even against the Raiders, Barkley only had a 3.5 YPC, so he'll need scores and the random explosive run to pay off as an RB1. Philly just can't push piles in 2025 after running the ball more than any team in NFL history last year. I think Barkley's tape has been solid all year despite only averaging 3.3 YPC since the bye removing that fake Tush Push 52-yarder.
Travis Etienne - 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB14 usage this month, and now Bhayshul Tuten (finger) is out for weeks. Etienne is on pace for his 3rd 1,400-yard season and a career-high amount of scores in a contract year. Liam Coen spotted bad LB play for the Jets and exploited them by using Etienne out in space. The Broncos are infinitely better, but Etienne will handle most RB touches with pass-protection specialist LeQuint Allen as the backup now. Jacksonville has an average 21.75-point team total on the road.
Chase Brown - 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB12 on RB10 usage this month, and the Bengals are 6th in projected points (26.0) this week against a Dolphins team benching their QB for a nearly UDFA rookie. In 5 games with Joe Burrow, Brown is averaging 15.8 expected half PPR points (RB7 usage), while Samaje Perine handles pass protection duties. That's up from 13.0 expected without him.
Javonte Williams - 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB7 usage this month, a stretch against some of the better defenses in the NFL. The Chargers are just that, but they are worse against the run for what it's worth. The Cowboys are projected for the 7th-most points (26.0) while hosting in Jerry World. Last week was more of a rotation with Malik Davis, however, and the Boys are eliminated from the playoffs if they wanted to take another look at him.
RJ Harvey - 70.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Broncos are 3rd in neutral pass rate this month and have been moving away from the ground game since JK Dobbins injury, and Harvey is so inconsistent on tape. Yet, the rookie is a bellcow on a respectable team with receptions and goal line carries in his projections. This month, Harvey is the RB6 on RB4 usage with a bye and games against the Raiders and Commanders over that stretch. The Broncos are 10th in projected points this week (24.75) against a Jaguars defense that's allowed the highest neutral pass rate this year. Teams chose to pass the ball against them, which hopefully means some fun receptions to Harvey. We've seen big reception outings from him. He just can't be the 2nd-worst RB in success rate when he has one of the best OLs in the NFL in front of him. His eyes need to get better. That's more of a real life take than anything with fantasy though.
TreVeyon Henderson - 78.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB7 on RB15 usage this month. Henderson still is playing about half the snaps because Rhamondre Stevenson gets some carries and plays the most in pass protection, but Henderson hasn't made that a wart so far because he's so fast. He's going untouched for scores, hiding his clear-cut RB2 usage without the guaranteed goal-line role. The Ravens don't have a great DL but their secondary can tackle. New England's 22.75-point team total is a lot lower than normal.
D'Andre Swift - 67.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Nothing has really changed in this 1-2 punch, and Swift has settled as an upside RB2 since the Bears bye. He's the RB14 on RB24 usage this month but that climbs to RB6 on RB16 usage in the last 3 games. The Bears are down Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle), so they should be even more committed to Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Packers have been a run funnel on defense, and DT1 Devonte Wyatt and EDGE1 Micah Parsons (ACL) are out. Chicago has an average 22.0-point team total at home. A healthy portion of touches is on the way.
Woody Marks
The rookie left with an ankle last week, and Nick Chubb (ribs) missed. We'll learn more later about who is healthy, but the Texans are 4th in projected points (26.25) this week at home against the lifeless Raiders defense. Marks was playing full-time snaps without Chubb.
Bucky Irving - 89.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Irving isn't as efficient this year because he's coming off injury, playing behind an injured OL, and is without OC Liam Coen. More importantly, he lost the goal-line role to thiccccer Sean Tucker and the two-minute drill to Rachaad White. If Irving wasn't so fun, then the narrative would be these are trap touches. He's the RB20 on RB21 usage this month since returning. Keep in mind both of his guards are on IR, and this is a December division game on the road. It'll be a handful to stop DT Derrick Brown.
Kyren Williams - 67.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB13 on RB31 usage this month. It's the same drive-by-drive rotation, with Williams potentially subbing in for some extra goal-line touches. The difference is the Rams are only projected for 22.5 points after going on a run of 30-45 points for the past couple months. The Seahawks are awesome at every level and managed to slow down Los Angeles for much of their first matchup.
Tyrone Tracy - 62.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Giants still played Devin Singletary on the inside the 5-yard line snaps, but Tracy dominated touches otherwise and played well. Jaxson Dart hit him on an out-and-up 18-yard TD against Bobby Wagner and then ran hard on 12-yard TD. The Giants have been a top-12 offense in EPA per play this year, so don't use their record against Tracy too much. He's the RB16 on RB18 usage this month.
Omarion Hampton - 61.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The rookie still played fewer snaps than Kimani Vidal (pass protection vs. Spags perhaps), but Hampton separated in terms of touches. He handled the goal-line opportunity and is more likely to rip open a big play. How often that happens is a different story behind this bottom-3 OL. He's the RB26 on RB25 usage this month. The Cowboys have sured up their run defense, so this is more of a pass funnel matchup for LA, but the Chargers' team total is up at 23.5 points. That's promising.
Kenneth Gainwell - 69.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB21 on RB13 usage this month. It's clear Gainwell is a fan favorite of Aaron Rodgers and OC Arthur Smith, as he keeps getting designed receptions and routes out of empty. He doesn't get many early-down carries or snaps, but when he's on the field, he's getting targets and those can come in the red zone, too. The Steelers are down multiple OL now, but Gainwell fits the projected game script against the Lions in Detroit. Pittsburgh is in a dome and 7-point dogs.
Aaron Jones - 82.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot against the inept Giants defense, but things have to get much better for him to be relevant. Jones is the RB43 on RB37 usage this month because the Vikings have been rotating Jordan Mason in a lot more. In fact, Jones' expected half PPR points have sat between 7.2 and 8.9 in 4-straight games, and Mason out-expected him two weeks back. They've recently split the snaps near the goal line, too, so Jones needs to catch passes and break off some nice runs to re-gain RB2 value. At least J.J. McCarthy is coming of his best game of his career, but the team needs to get a real look at Mason now that they're eliminated.
Rico Dowdle - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: LT Icky Ekwonu was a DNP on Wednesday.
He's the RB27 on RB29 usage this month. The Panthers used Dowdle as the early-down grinder and goal-line back, while Chuba Hubbard inserted himself in more change-of-pace and passing-down situations. That's what I'd expect for the rest of the way. What's interesting this week is the matchup, as the Buccaneers are a clear-cut pass funnel. This month, the Panthers are dead last in neutral pass rate, so that'd be going against their identity. Their injured interior OL should struggle against Vita Vea. Hubbard had a scoreless 3.6 YPC against the Bucs last year for example.
Michael Carter - 68.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Bam Knight is out for the year, so it's back to Carter on early downs with Emari Demercado available for passing situations. It's an extremely pass-heavy team with 3 backup OL, but Carter would be the favorite for a goal-line TD. That's key because the team total is actually above average at 22.75 points, and the Falcons are a run funnel on defense because they are so light in the shorts. The Cardinals' RB1 in usage has averaged 12.1 expected half PPR points (RB18) since the James Conner injury.
Tony Pollard - 62.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Titans OL has stepped up recently, and Pollard has benefited. The rotation hasn't changed, however. He's the RB11 on RB30 usage this month after multiple explosive plays, though those were non-existent before. Pollard still plays for an offense projected for the 3rd-fewest points (17.0), and the Chiefs' run defense still gets after it with DT Chris Jones.
Breece Hall - 57.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB35 on RB22 usage this month, as the Jets have bottomed out in every way. Hall can't operate as usual with that level of QB play. He's had 9.8 and 8.5 expected half PPR points the past two weeks (RB34 usage) and has done nothing with it. The Jets' team total is at 18.0, and Brady Cook was announced as the starter again. Tough.
Kyle Monangai - 55.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB33 on RB27 usage this month, and nothing has changed. Monangai plays about 40% of the time and is capable of a big play or goal line touchdown any week. The Packers have been a run funnel since the Micah Parsons trade, and he's now out. Packers DT1 Devonte Wyatt is also on IR.
Jaylen Warren - 56.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB25 on RB23 usage this month, but the roles have been firmly established. Kenny Gainwell is preferred in the pass game while, Warren is an early-down hammer type and the goal line rusher. The Steelers are 7-point dogs in Detroit this week, so this works against Warren in general.
David Montgomery - 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB32 on RB43 usage this month, but the Lions are at least projected for the most points on the week at 29.5. In 10 games this year when the Lions have scored between 24 and 44 points, Montgomery is averaging a respectable 11.5 half PPR points. We'll see if T.J. Watt (lung) can go. It sounds like Steelers' 1st-round DT Derrick Harmon will return.
Quinshon Judkins - 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Browns have backups at LT, C, RG, and RT, and are in the mix for the worst QB play, too. No Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford (IR) last week meant Judkins had a season-high 67% snap rate. It just didn't matter with the Browns held to 3 points in freezing weather. The Bills are a run funnel defense, so maybe it gets better??? He's the RB29 on RB26 usage this month. Cleveland is 2nd-lowest in projected points at 16.75.
Ashton Jeanty - 73.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB30 on RB12 usage this month, but over the past two weeks without Geno Smith, Jeanty has RB31 usage, too. It's pathetic in Vegas. Jeanty is 3rd-lowest in success rate per NextGenStats on the year. Every screen they try is immediately sniffed out, too. The Raiders' 11.75-point team total while in Houston is one of the lowest you'll ever see.
Kenneth Walker - 60.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Seahawks lean on him early, but Walker is too prone for game script wonkiness, Zach Charbonnet goal line carries, or bad blocking up front to be trusted ever. That's especially true with the Seahawks playing worse ball on offense and with the Rams' pass funnel coming to town. He's the RB47 on RB32 usage this month. Damn.
Blake Corum - 42.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB17 on RB46 usage this month, but the math is harder to figure out when the Rams are projected for 22.5 points this week compared to the 31.0 points they were last week.
Audric Estime
Devin Neal (hamstring) is out, and Alvin Kamara (Cancun) isn't practicing either. After Neal left, it was a combination of Estime on early downs and Evan Hull on late downs. As the mini bellcow, Neal was the RB28 on RB33 usage, and Estime isn't going to absorb everything left behind. Estime has busted in his young career but as a prospect I saw a bruiser with some promise. This is his last call to hang around the NFL.
Chris Rodriguez - 42.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll see if he can return (groin), but the Commanders are turning the page after being eliminated. Marcus Mariota will close out the year and that could mean a little more rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt than before. On top of that, this week's matchup against the Eagles stacks the deck agains them. Washington has a 19.5-point team total.
Chuba Hubbard - 48.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB23 on RB39 usage this month. Last week, Hubbard played on 88% of the late-down snaps as the primary receiving option, while Rico Dowdle handled 77% of the early-down work. A date with the Bucs usually means more dropbacks than carries, but Hubbard's touchdown equity is pretty low.
Devin Singletary
He didn't get a touch, but Singletary was subbed in for the plays within the 5-yard line last week. The difference was Tyrone Tracy operated as a bellcow between the 10s and scored multiple TDs from 10+ yards out. Jaxson Dart did have QB designed runs again, so Singletary could keep getting vultured even if he's on the field.
Kareem Hunt
The Chiefs' team total is down to 20.5 points, and the Titans' have a great DT pairing to stop the run. Equally as important to Hunt is the split with Isaiah Pacheco now. His 4.2 expected half PPR points last week were a season low.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 48.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB44 on RB35 usage this month, and last week was a season-low 6.7 expected half PPR as he operated primarily in pass protection. We didn't get any hints at who would be the goal line back moving forward, as the Patriots didn't have a single snap inside the 5-yard line last week. Stevenson has a lot more size, but Henderson stole most of the carries away from Mondre between the 20s. Without a short-yardage role, Stevenson has nearly no value. We'll eventually find out.
al (hamstring) can't go, it'd be a combination of Estime, Evan Hull, and Taysom Hill. Devin Neal as the clear-cut starter has been the RB28 on RB33 usage, and I don't think they'd use any of these backs in that exact role.
Zach Charbonnet - 38.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB39 on RB40 usage this month.
Week 16 WR Rankings
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 81.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR1 on WR1 usage this month after a huge Week 14. In fact, his 31.8 expected half PPR points were the most by a receiver all year. The Lions are 1st in projected points (29.5) at home this week, and his matchup on the inside is easier than the one Jamo has on the outside. Jared Goff is playing great ball, and Amon-Ra is healthy enough for massive games. It's helping him out to have Sam LaPorta out and the neutral pass rate creeping into the top-5 this month.
Ja'Marr Chase - 84.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Tee Higgins (concussion) was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, and the Bengals have been eliminated. In the two games without him, Chase has had 20.8 and 21.5 expected half PPR points. That's easily the most at the position.
Puka Nacua - 93.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the NFL's career receiving yards per game leader, and Davante Adams is out. The Seahawks have dudes everywhere on defense and the weather might be volatile, but Nacua is on another level right now. His play speed seems faster to me, and he was always an extremely physical and headsy player. He's the whole package.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 91.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Rams secondary is vulnerable right now with multiple key players on IR and Emmanuel Forbes regressing. They're turning into a pass funnel, and JSN is on pace for the highest yards per route season since the metric was created. He had 9-105-1 against the Rams last month, and they were very willing to throw quick outs and comebacks to the flats against off zone coverage. This week, the weather looks volatile, and Sam Darnold's success has fallen off with safeties playing the Seahawks differently this month. I've seen more safeties over the top of JSN's side now than before. That all makes sense. And still, there goes JSN on a crosser for a big play.
Michael Wilson - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll see about Marvin Harrison (limited, heel), but this ranking assumes he's missing one more. In those games, Wilson is averaging 19.8 expected half PPR points. In his last two games with Marv, that's down to 11.2, but even then, there's room for all three pass-game options to pop off. Jacoby Brissett has 56 more dropbacks than the QB2 since Week 6 when he took over despite having a bye week.
Nico Collins - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR8 on WR21 usage this month. Have you seen the Raiders defense recently? They lost a starting CB a couple weeks back, too.
A.J. Brown - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR4 on WR9 usage, and the Eagles' pass game looked cleaner with more under center passing last week, even if Brown's targets were limited. This is another great week for everyone involved with the Commanders tanking and playing multiple backups in the secondary due to injury. This is an eruption spot. Philly is projected for 26.0 points.
CeeDee Lamb - 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR10 on WR8 usage this month. This will be another challenging matchup with the Chargers' great zone defense coming to town. Dak Prescott will navigate it better than most, however, and Lamb is very experienced himself. The Cowboys, at home, have a 26.0-point team total, so don't be too alarmed here.
George Pickens - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Don't even try to get into the mind of a Mr. George Pickens. Just know more times than not, he's going to make plays. Last week was a down week, not by effort, but just by scheme. He's an X receiver, and that position can be schemed away at times. That could happen again with the Chargers' zone defense in town, but they use a lot of quarters, which isn't going to do that as much as other defenses. He's the WR20 on WR14 usage this month, and that's about as low as it's been all year.
Chris Olave - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR18 usage this month, and Devaughn Vele has been ruled out, as have RBs Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal. Tyler Shough continues to impress with a nice throwing base and ability to work through progressions, so Olave has a real weekly ceiling. That's particularly true against the Jets without Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. There's a reason why the Jets fired DC Steve Wilks. It's because they are extremely bad.
Jameson Williams - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR11 on WR17 usage this month, coming off a season-high 16.1 expected half PPR points in negative game script. The Lions are back to 1st in projected points at home, and we'll see if the Steelers can get T.J. Watt (lung) back on the field. The Steelers have vastly improved defending outside receivers since moving Jalen Ramsey to safety. Since Week 10 for example, they've allowed the 4th-fewest yards to outside receivers. They also haven't faced Jamo.
DK Metcalf - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR21 on WR22 usage this month, but this is a game script that is on his side. The Steelers are in a comfy done and are 7-point dogs to a Lions defense missing multiple key starters in the secondary. They stick to their guns with a bunch of man coverage, and Metcalf is their lone answer against it.
Courtland Sutton - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR9 on WR11 usage this month with the Broncos creeping up to 3rd in neutral pass rate without JK Dobbins. Last week was a season-high 15.0 expected half PPR points, too. Sutton was sensational on film, routinely winning his 1-on-1s down the field. He's one of the more underrated players in the league. The Jaguars are good defensively, but they are also allowing the highest neutral pass rate this year. It's a good spot at home.
DeVonta Smith - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR34 on WR25 usage, as a prime buy low candidate. The Eagles' pass game looked cleaner with more under center passing last week, and this is another great week for everyone involved with the Commanders tanking and playing multiple backups in the secondary due to injury. This is an eruption spot. Philly is projected for 26.0 points. Of note, the Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to WRs in the slot.
Mike Evans - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
His return to the lineup resulted in a season-high 17.8 expected half PPR points, and Evans had some vintage moments at the catch point. He looked pretty normal and is likeliest to operate as the top target in the red zone. The tricky part is the return of a 4th WR in Jalen McMillan, so Evans may not be a full-time receiver for the time being after running 72% routes last week. The Bucs have a solid 24.5-point team total in Carolina, who have a couple of athletic CBs to work with. Evans had monster 8-97-2 and 8-118-1 games against them last season.
Jauan Jennings
He's the WR13 on WR19 usage this month with a fully-healthy supporting cast. Now, Ricky Pearsall (knee) is out, and the 49ers have the 2nd-highest team total of the week in a dome with both the Colts' top-2 CBs out. The Colts have allowed the most receptions to slot receivers, and Jennings does move around in there at times. It's a great spot.
Jakobi Meyers - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR17 on WR15 usage this month, but this will be the most challenging matchup yet. By far. The Broncos have studs everywhere, but Meyers plays in the slot and at flanker so he should dodge All Pro CB Patrick Surtain on most plays, especially with Brian Thomas Jr. around. The slot is where you'd like to attack them, as they've allowed the 7th-most receptions to WRs who lined up in the slot this year.
Tetairoa McMillan - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He was a DNP on Wednesday but returned to practice on Thursday, noting this is an ankle injury that has lingered for the past month. The rookie has tailed off in the box score recently (WR43 on WR74 usage), but McMillan deserved a 20-yard touchdown on film last week. Bryce Young just missed him short, no pun intended. This week projects like a bounce back. The Bucs are notoriously a pass-funnel defense, and they just placed CB Zyon McCollum on IR this week. McMillan's routes should go up, and his 1.8 yards per route are that of a fantasy WR2.
Ladd McConkey - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's been terrible, but the Chargers finally get a cleaner matchup with the Cowboys, who have allowed the most EPA to receivers this year. If DT Quinnen Williams is out, then Justin Herbert should be able to have enough time to hit his underneath YAC threat. We'll see if Quentin Johnston (groin, limited) comes back.
DJ Moore - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle) are out. Moore is the WR23 on WR31 usage this month with them in-and-out of the lineup, and in the 4 games this year with either of them missing, Moore is averaging 9.3 expected half PPR points (WR28 usage). Now both are out, and Caleb Williams continues to settle into the offense and make plays out of it.
Zay Flowers - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR25 on WR23 usage this month, and over that time, Lamar Jackson has looked a lot better on tape. Last week was sensational, and Flowers benefited the most. The Ravens are 7th in projected points as home favorites against the Patriots. He'll have to beat far more physical CBs in Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis this time around. The key part of this entire blurb: Lamar, healthy.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR7 on WR7 usage this month. Jaxson Dart continues to impress, and Robinson's floor has been solid in those starts. He's averaged 10.4 expected half PPR points in 9 games with his rookie QB, and Robinson's ceiling is elevated now that he's running more downfield routes. The Vikings' blitz-heavy and two-deep defense does flow receptions to underneath receivers, but it's also a chaotic defense for rookie QBs to handle. The Giants' team total is now below-average at 20.5 points.
Jayden Reed - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Christian Watson (chest) went from DNP-limited. We'll know more later on, but this assumes he's out. Reed is the WR35 on WR56 usage this month since returning from injury. Reed's routes won't change much whether Watson plays or not, as he's been stuck as a slot receiver only in either sample. The targets would. A date with the Bears' backup slot CB is enticing. Kyler Gordon is on IR.
Terry McLaurin - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's on All Pro CB1 Quinyon Mitchell island this week, and Mariota won't have LT Laremy Tunsil either. It's an extremely difficult spot. McLaurin has been very good since returning from injury, polishing off a quarters coverage post route for a score last week. He's the WR18 on WR10 usage this month, but a big-time downgrade for environment is warranted.
Emeka Egbuka - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR56 on WR20 usage this month. The up-and-down season continues for the rookie, and it won't get easier with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and now Jalen McMillan in the mix. They'll rotate them all, meaning Egbuka is no longer a full-time player. Last week was a season-low 9.4 expected half PPR points, though that's still enough for WR3/4 utility. The Bucs' 24.5-point team total is still strong, too. Egbuka just needs to catch the dang ball, and Baker Mayfield's downfield accuracy can no longer be bottom-3. We'll see if it can get corrected when it counts. This game is largely for the division.
Justin Jefferson - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
I hate for my fingers to even brace a keyboard to type this, but Jefferson is the WR87 on WR32 usage this month. That's 80% a JJ McCarthy problem, and then 20% Jefferson playing below his standard recently. This would be a time for Jefferson and McCarthy to hit because the Giants are horrific in the secondary. That's the hope. We all understand what the floor is in an offense that asks a lot of the QB in the dropback game and is moving more to a balanced identity in general.
Xavier Worthy
This assumes Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton miss with concussions. Worthy would go into a full-time role and garner free touches underneath with Rice out and Gardner Minshew running an RPO-based offense. In 3 games without Rice, he averaged 11.5 expected half PPR points (WR19 usage), though that was with Mahomes. Worthy's ceiling is lower because they can't throw the ball downfield, but he's more likely to reach 50+ yards now with Rice out of the way. The Titans secondary is one to target, too.
Jaylen Waddle - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Quinn Ewers is pretty bad, and the Dolphins have been far more run-heavy recently with De'Von Achane balling out. Waddle has been just the WR30 on WR35 usage this month, and the Bengals defense is far better defending receivers than TEs and RBs. That's a D.J. Turner shootout for the uninformed.
Adonai Mitchell - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Brady Cook will start, and that should terrify everyone. But Mitchell is the WR24 on WR16 usage this month and scored a TD with him last week. His route running has been cleaned up since his rookie year, though they are largely the volatile downfield routes. Cook's arm talent underwhelms on them, so treat Mitchell as a boom-bust WR3. The Saints have been better than expected defensively this year.
Keenan Allen - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll see about Quentin Johnston (groin, limited), but if he's out, Allen is in an elite spot against the Cowboys' pass funnel defense.
Jayden Higgins - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Brian Thomas - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's on Patrick Surtain island.
Jordan Addison - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jalen Coker
He's the WR12 on WR52 usage this month. We'll learn about Tetairoa McMillan's fate later on after missing Wednesday's practice.
Stefon Diggs - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy
Pat Bryant
He was a full participant on Wednsday after missing last week with a hamstring injury. Bryant's last 3 healthy games equated to WR40 usage, and his film has been rock solid. His size, physicality, and hands make him a back shoulder and over the middle zone specialist, and that's the exact profile Sean Payton has gravitated towards. The Broncos being 3rd in neutral pass rate this month and the Jaguars defense being 1st in neutral pass rate this season are very nice bonuses. He's a quality sleeper if totally desperate.
Chris Godwin - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Alec Pierce - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Khalil Shakir - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Browns have allowed a league-low 40 receptions to WRs lined up in the slot.
Rashid Shaheed - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Chimere Dike
Josh Downs
Troy Franklin
Pat Bryant (hamstring) was a full participant on Wednesday.
Week 16 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 73.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week without Drake London was the 3rd-best single-game performance in TE history. It was obviously a season-high in usage, too, at 19.3 expected half PPR points. Pitts has looked healthy this year, and now the offense is getting him both manufactured touches and runaway routes. It's a great situation with the Falcons catching the Cardinals this time around on a top-10 team total (25.25 points). If London returns, I'd only drop him to TE3.
George Kittle - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE3 on TE5 usage this month, and Ricky Pearsall (knee) is going to miss again. The 49ers are also at home against an injured Colts defense on the 3rd-highest team total of the week (26.5 points). Kittle is a monster on tape still, and Brock Purdy looked healthy for the first time in months. It's go time with a lot to play for in the standings.
Colston Loveland - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This assumes Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle) miss. Without them on the field last game, Loveland ran a route on 83% of dropbacks and had an elite 33% targets per route. Without them on the field across the entire year, Loveland has a monster 2.9 yards per route and 28% target share. To my eyes, the rookie looks like a future All Pro talent capable of diving catches, YAC explosives, and feel versus zone. The Packers' defense looks more average than good without Micah Parsons and DT1 Devonte Wyatt, too.
Dallas Goedert - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE8 on TE13 usage this month. The Eagles are passing slightly more now, and when they went under center last week, Goedert was peppered. He has a beautiful individual matchup this week. Bobby Wagner is picked on, the Commanders are 4th-worst against fantasy TEs, and the Eagles are back to a 26.0-point team total. It's an eruption spot.
Harold Fannin
He's the TE5 on TE4 usage this month, even with the Browns largely looking terrible. No David Njoku (knee) meant Fannin ran a route on 95% of dropbacks last week, and he had an elite 33% targets per route, too. Shedeur Sanders stinks while playing behind 4 backup OL, but Fannin is the easy button in the offense, especially if Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford (IR) also miss again. The Bills crafty zone defense scares me, but that might mean more free receptions instead of asking Shedeur to read disguised zone looks downfield. Buffalo has been the best fantasy TE defense this year, however.
Travis Kelce - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The team total is only at 20.5 points with Gardner Minshew, who doesn't offer the extended play ability that granted Kelce a bunch of free production. Kelce does fit the Minshew quick-hitting offense, however, and Rashee Rice (concussion) might miss now. There could be a PPR scam element here as he winds down his career. He said "the Chiefs" instead of "we" on his podcast this week when talking about the 2026 team. He's the TE14 on TE12 usage this month when everyone was healthy.
Brock Bowers - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
I mean, the Raiders are projected for 11.75 points against the Texans. With Kenny Pickett at QB last week, Bowers had 8 nearly worthless targets to the flats on a pathetic 2.0 average depth of target. That led to just 6.8 expected half PPR points because they were nowhere near the end zone or downfield. Bowers is the TE6 on TE6 usage this month, and it's somehow worse right now.
Dalton Kincaid - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE12 on TE11 usage this month, while coming back from two leg injuries. Kincaid will always be a part-time player, but he's also the most efficient TE on a per-route basis and plays for the Bills, who are once again 2nd in team total this week.
Colby Parkinson - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: The weather might be really windy.
He's the TE4 on TE8 usage this month, coming off a season-high 12.2 expected half PPR points. The Rams faced a Lions defense last week with better LBs than DBs, and they set a season-high in 3-TE usage. It's a bit that's landing and will continue, especially without Davante Adams (hamstring). Parkinson isn't a full-time player, but he's the best combination of in-line and receiving skills of their TE rotation. Parkinson has some YAC ability and stands at about 8-foot-4, so some of the Adams' red zone looks good trickle down to the big dog. The Seahawks are a great defense, but if they've been more average against anyone, it's been TEs. They've allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to TEs on the 2nd-most receptions. Parkinson is also the TE they have under contract for next season, too, so they have a plan for him.
Juwan Johnson - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE22 on TE19 usage this month, but Devaughn Vele (out), Devin Neal (out), and Alvin Kamara (out) are injured. Johnson's involvement should go up, and Tyler Shough is peppering the middle of the field and is really reading the field well for a rookie. I'm impressed. A close game with the tanking Jets and their terrible LBs await.
Dalton Schultz - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE13 on TE9 usage this month, and the Texans are 4th in projected points at home against the Raiders' simple zone defense with slow players up the middle. CJ Stroud is seeing the field well and has a willingness to throw over the middle against these looks. It's an eruption spot.
Jake Ferguson - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE21 on TE10 usage this month, as a buy low candidate.
Hunter Henry - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE7 on TE3 usage this month.
Mark Andrews - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Lamar Jackson looked like himself again last week, but Andrews is only the TE38 on TE21 usage this month. It's been a lot more Isaiah Likely in YAC situations, and then not many dropbacks in general. Andrews needs a red zone score to pay off. Baltimore is at least projected for 25.75 points at home in a near must-win game.
Theo Johnson - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 3.9 expected half PPR points, but Johnson is the TE16 on TE14 usage this month still. Jaxson Dart continues to run an above-average offense without a lot of depth.
Oronde Gadsden - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll see about Quentin Johnston later, but it's an eruption spot.
Darren Waller - 22.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was sensational. Waller looks fast on tape, and he had 13.9 expected half PPR points while chasing points as a slot receiver. The Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa and Quinn Ewers nearly went undrafted for a reason, so the range of outcomes is quite wide. Still, the Bengals have allowed a league-high 99 receptions to the position this year with terrible LB and S play. Waller is a can't miss target right now. (Ewers: "Challenge accepted.)
Dawson Knox
Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Knox has had 11.4 and 11.5 expected half PPR points in the most recent games with the receiving group looking gross. The Bills will use Knox in play action near the goal line, so there is TD upside in an offense projected for the 2nd-most points again. He's the TE10 on TE15 usage this month.
Brenton Strange - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE15 on TE18 usage this month, but the Jaguars receivers are healthy and the matchup is difficult in Denver this week.
Tyler Warren - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Colts had their lowest neutral pass rate of the season last week with Philip Rivers, and Warren took a beating with the ball floating over the middle. Things will be easier against non-Seahawks, but the offense is extremely capped in terms of blades of grass threatened. Warren's 7.2 expected half PPR points from last week make him a clear fantasy TE2 with tons of teammate competition.
AJ Barner - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Cole Kmet
Gunnar Helm
Evan Engram - 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth
Mike Gesicki
Chig Okonkwo - 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 16 QB Rankings
Josh Allen
The Bills are 4th in projected points (26.0) against the Browns.
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles are 4th in projected points (26.0) against the Commanders, who stink.
Lamar Jackson
His tape last week was excellent. The Patriots are missing DT Milton Williams and haven't faced many elite offenses this year. The Bills went nuts in the 2nd half last week against them in one of their lone tests. If Jackson can run like he did last week, the ceiling is back. The Ravens are 7th in projected points (25.75).
Drake Maye
The Patriots are 2nd in neutral pass rate this month.
Joe Burrow
The Bengals are 7th in projected points (25.75) in Miami.
Brock Purdy
The 49ers are 2nd in projected points (26.5) in a dome against a Colts defense missing a lot of their best players. Purdy ran around and pushed the ball downfield last week out of the bye after having some iffy games on a bad toe before. No Ricky Pearsall hurts, but the Niners are a walking shootout right now.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys are 4th in projected points (26.0) against the Chargers, who run a sophisticated and smooth defense.
Jacoby Brissett
Jared Goff
The Lions are 1st in projected points (29.5) at home.
Justin Herbert
We'll see if DT Quinnen Williams can play, but if not, this is a great spot. The Cowboys have allowed the most EPA to receivers, and hopefully Herbert isn't chased around as much.
C.J. Stroud
The Texans are 3rd in projected points (26.25) at home against the Raiders, and Stroud is playing his best ball since his rookie season right now. He's seeing the field well from the pocket and showing some athleticism beyond it. The OL is much better now than before, and his receivers are all healthy again. This is an eruption spot in every way. The Texans need wins, while the Raiders are borderline tanking and have a starting CB on IR.
Jaxson Dart
The QB designed runs were back last week, and Dart is still scrambling like a mad man.
Bo Nix
Offenses facing the Jaguars have the highest neutral pass rate this year, and the Broncos are 3rd in neutral pass rate this month without JK Dobbins.
Caleb Williams
Jordan Love
RT Zach Tom left last week.
Baker Mayfield
Tyler Shough
Trevor Lawrence
Kirk Cousins
The Falcons are 9th in projected points (25.25).
Matthew Stafford - 16.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Sam Darnold - 16.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
LT Charles Cross (knee) hasn't practiced, and he's probably their best OL.
J.J. McCarthy
Aaron Rodgers
The Steelers have their LT on IR, and LG Isaac Seumalo left last week.
Bryce Young
Gardner Minshew
Marcus Mariota
LT Laremy Tunsil is out.
Cam Ward
Philip Rivers
Shedeur Sanders
Quinn Ewers
Brady Cook
Kenny Pickett
Week 16 Fantasy DEFs
The best defenses of the week are the Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Saints, and Eagles, with honorable mentions to the Vikings, Broncos, Titans, and Broncos.