Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 16 Recap
Week 17 RB Rankings
Christian McCaffrey
Jahmyr Gibbs - 112.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB6 on RB4 usage this month.
Bijan Robinson - 121.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB2 usage this month, but the Falcons only project for 20.5 points against the Rams' great defense. Having Kyle Pitts' re-breakout and the return of Drake London work against Robinson's goal-line touchdown odds at the margins. He's still awesome in general, but his environment is the worst among the elite RB1s.
James Cook - 104.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bills are dead last in neutral pass rate this month, and it's not close. That's the state of their terrible WR room, but it's also the state of the effectiveness of these under-center runs to Cook. He's the RB2 on RB3 usage this month. Unfortunately, this is a brutal matchup with the Eagles coming to town. They're expected to get All Pro DT Jalen Carter back and are stacked everywhere else. Buffalo only has a 23.0-point team total in what could be a slow-paced game for both sides with some snowy-rain slop in the forecast.
Travis Etienne - 87.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
If the Jaguars can put up 34 points in Denver, then they are very real. Trevor Lawrence is making plays he didn't use to make, and OC Liam Coen is just a machine. Etienne himself is showcasing the broken tackles and speed that got him drafted in the 1st round, too. It's an elite set up with Bhayshul Tuten (finger) not expected back until the NFL Playoffs. Etienne is the RB5 on RB11 usage this month, and the Jaguars are 5th in projected points against a Colts defense that is on short rest after getting worked by the 49ers on Monday Night Football. This should be Etienne's highest projected fantasy points game of the entire year.
De'Von Achane - 106.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Dolphins were too blown out for Achane to get 4th quarter touches last week, which is a risk with a 7th-round QB starting games. That said, Achane is still in his bag with Mike McDaniel using his star LT and C out in space as face-melting blockers, and Quinn Ewers was better than other Day 3 rookie QBs I've watched this year. Achane is the RB7 on RB25 usage this month, including two games where he left early due to injury and scoreboard. He's dealt with shaking QB play all year. Perhaps the bigger issue is the Bucs' strong run defense. Achane could take a page out of the Bijan Robinson playbook from two weeks ago when he caught 8-of-11 targets for 82 yards.
Chase Brown - 81.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB7 usage this month with Joe Burrow back. What's new here is the Bengals OL is actually average after hitting on RT Amarius Mims in Round 1 a couple drafts ago, and the matchup this week is super clean. The Bengals had the highest team total (30.25) while hosting a Cardinals defense that was already banged up and then lost two above-average starters last week to serious injuries. Arizona is 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs over the past 5 games (29.8 half PPR per game).
We'll get the weather report later on, but it's looking wet right now.
Kyren Williams - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB12 on RB9 usage this month, while rotating drives with Blake Corum. Both have been awesome and should be even more relied on in Week 17 based on matchup (Falcons) and the loss of Davante Adams. Atlanta hasn't face a talented rushing team in over a month and still have a weight concern up front, while the Rams had a 45% neutral pass rate without Adams last week. This game is extra important for Los Angeles, as beating the Falcons increases their draft slot in the upcoming draft. They also, you know, want to win the division and bye.
Ashton Jeanty - 102.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB20 on RB13 usage this month, but Jeanty was dominant on tape last week against the Texans with Geno Smith back in the mix. The Raiders' matchup this week is just simply way easier. The Giants have fired 3 coaches at different poitns of the season and are dealing with injuries up front. They've been the worst rushing EPA defense all year, and now this game is for the rights of the 1st overall pick. It's a slot fest, but Jeanty + Bowers is better than what the Giants have in the skill group. The Raiders are 1-point home favorites with a league-average team total of 21.75 points. The "let's see what happens when he's in an average offense" tweets will get a taste of the glory this week.
Javonte Williams - 84.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: He was limited (neck) on Monday.
Two weeks ago, Williams picked up a minor injury which kept him on the injury report heading into Week 16. In the game, Malik Davis was getting full series far earlier in the game than usual, and then Williams was fully subbed out in the 4th quarter due to the score board. Ultimately, it was a season-low 8.6 expected half PPR points for Williams, who has just been quieter in the 2nd half of the season. Maybe his knee just can't hold up for 17 games. Who knows? He's the RB21 on RB12 usage this month, but this is an eruption spot against the tanking Commanders on a short week with their own QB3. Dallas has a monster 28.75-point team total.
Saquon Barkley - 99.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB6 usage this month. His spin move TD from last week was his best play of the year, and there's a chance RT Lane Johnson returns here. The Eagles look better on offense with Nick Sirianni chipping in more help for the struggling OC. That said, the Bills' defense controls the clock better than anyone, and I worry about overall play volume. The Eagles' pass game can get stuck against creative zone teams, like Buffalo, so it's not overly surprising to see their team total down at just 20.5 points while on the road. There could be that rain/snow nonsense, too.
Derrick Henry
He's the RB10 on RB24 usage this month, and it is December after all, but the Ravens might not Lamar Jackson (back) in Week 17 after it locked up with a bruise. Their 19.0-point team total suggests he might be on the wrong side of questionable. We'll see. If Henry doesn't have Lamar, then his upside takes a hit, but the offense does become super run dependent at the same time. The Packers won't have EDGE Micah Parsons or DT DeVonte Wyatt again.
TreVeyon Henderson
Update: He was limited and in a non-contact jersey on Wednesday. That keeps the hope alive.
He's in the concussion protocol, and this obviously assumes he'll clear it, which is about a 50/50 proposition. Henderson remains a boom-bust RB2 capable of finishing as that week's RB1 overall or entirely busting. It's really the Raheem Mostert profile all over again. Henderson didn't even get the first touches last week and would split goal line work, but he's also fast as hell and the Jets STINK. Their LBs are horrific and slow. If Henderson clears, using his speed against them is beyond obvious. He just needs to rip the big play. New England projects for 28.25 points, the 4th-highest of the week, so the odds of that are reasonable.
Jonathan Taylor - 90.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: Philip Rivers expects to start.
We'll see if Philip Rivers is going to start again as they have a 1% chance of making the playoffs but aren't technically eliminated, but Rivers is undeniably better for all Colts than their backups. The issue is the Jaguars are the biggest pass funnel defense in neutral situations, and the Colts are 6.5-point dogs on a short week. Game script could work against Taylor, who is also running behind backup tackles. He's more of an RB2 than must-play RB1 right now. Indianapolis has a 20.5-point team total, likely assuming Philip Rivers will play.
RJ Harvey - 70.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Broncos have doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on the pass game since losing JK Dobbins. They remain top-3 in neutral pass rate, and the Harvey lost some rushing work to Jaleel McLaughlin last week. The usage was concerning (8.1 expected half PPR points), but Harvey made a couple highlight plays, including on his broken-tackle-based long TD run. That should earn him more work in Week 17, and game script should be on his side with the Chiefs down to their QB3. Denver is 12.5-point favorites with a 25.25-point team total. He's the RB4 on RB8 usage this month in similar spots.
D'Andre Swift
Nothing has changed. He's the RB13 on RB14 usage this month as the outside zone explosive rusher and receiver, while vastly struggling in pass protection. The used Kyle Monangai late in Week 16 after a Swift failure in pass protection, but Swift's athleticism against the 49ers' injured defense is ripe for explosives here. Despite being on the road, the Bears have a 24.5-point team total.
Omarion Hampton - 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Update: Kimani Vidal was a DNP on Wednesday.
He's the RB23 on RB17 usage this month, but Hampton's role was inching closer to his pre-ankle injury even before Kimani Vidal's neck injury. The Chargers were balling, and Hampton topped off a red zone drive with a score. The OL is a disgrace. Don't let the scoreboard fool you. But Hampton in a bellcow role next to an MVP runner-up QB is enough to blindly trust.
Josh Jacobs
Update: Jacobs was limited on Wednesday, giving him real odds to play.
He didn't practice all week and was reportedly on crutches the Monday before Week 16. Jacobs gutted it out in the 1st quarter, but he failed on his goal line attempts and even fumbled one. Afterwards, Emanuel Wilson took over and ran well, so the rushed return backfired for the Packers unfortunately. Wilson needs to be 100% rostered, as he'd be a fantasy RB1 if he starts and Jordan Love (concussion) returns. We'll add the likely rainy weather report as we get closer, but that's probably playing into the lower-than-normal 21.5-point team total this week.
Bucky Irving
Update: All Pro LT Tristan Wirfs (toe) has a new injury.
The Bucs aren't nearly as good without their starting guards, OC Liam Coen, and a healthy Baker Mayfield shoulder. Irving still made plays and is the go-to rusher between the 20s, but Sean Tucker subbed in near the goal line once again and Rachaad White made a couple plays in the pass game, too. That keeps Bucky away from the fantasy RB1 mix. He's the RB24 on RB19 usage this month.
Aaron Jones - 84.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jordan Mason (ankle) was carted off and will likely miss the year. Jones was the bellcow without Mason in Week 16, though he was limping around himself. He racked up a season-high 16.2 expected half PPR points despite the offense looking quite bad. It easily could be Max Brosmer on a short week if JJ McCarthy's right hand can't quickly heal, and veteran C Ryan Kelly picked up his 3rd concussion of the year, too.
Kenneth Gainwell
I've said this for weeks. Gainwell is LOVED by Aaron Rodgers and OC Arthur Smith, especially in the pass game. This week's highlight was insane at the catch point, but it also came after Rodgers motioned him out once they realized the Lions were in man coverage. Rodgers gave him a shot despite only having 10 seconds left in the half. It paid off. Gainwell is a PPR scam, and now DK Metcalf could be suspended after being baited to violence by a blue-haired agitator. This offense is at least average right now with Rodgers playing his best ball since his achilles tear, so Gainwell is a serious asset right now. He's the RB16 on RB10 usage this month in half PPR. That's even better in full PPR.
Jaylen Warren
He's the RB14 on RB18 usage this month, but this is the Browns defense, so the Steelers only have a 19.0-point team total in Cleveland. Weather is currently in the 7-day forecast, too. For what it's worth, the Browns have been absolutely gashed on the ground recently, which does happen to defenses that've been eliminated from the playoffs. There's plenty of upside if they go with a very run-heavy game script.
Kenneth Walker - 70.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We finally got the performance we've been hoping for, just in time for the consolation bracket semis. Walker still needs the long run to make up for the Zach Charbonnet two-minute drill and goal-line carries.
Tony Pollard - 70.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Another one. He's the RB9 (!!!) on RB27 usage this month. That's 3-straight massive outings. The issue is that the split with Tyjae Spears is real. In fact, Spears had the inside the 5-yard line opportunity last week late in that game, while also taking reps in the first half. If you want to ride the hot hand, I get it. The baseline for points is still boom-bust based on his usage and the Titans' 18.5-point team total. There could be weather in this one, too.
Blake Corum
He had a season-high 11.9 expected half PPR last week, but nothing has changed. The Rams are committed to this highly-successful drive-by-drive rotation, and when the Rams put up 28-45 points more times than not, then Corum's odds for a touchdown are very real. He's the RB8 (!!!) on RB37 usage this month. The Rams project for 29.0 points, the 2nd-highest of the week.
Rhamondre Stevenson
We'll see if TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) can clear protocol--this assumes he plays for now--but it was all Stevenson without him in the 2nd half with Terrell Jennings also injured. Stevenson had some nice pass protection reps, will handle the goal-line carries, and can catch the ball. He'd be a bellcow on a great offense if Hendo can't go. The Patriots have been 1st in neutral pass rate this month as they get even more confident with Drake Maye for what it's worth, but the Jets are lifeless and have been the worst fantasy RB defense over the past 5 weeks (30.4 half PPR per game) without DT Quinnen Williams.
We'll look at the weather report later on, but cold rain is likely.
Kyle Monangai - 58.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB27 on RB21 usage this month. Nothing has changed about the rotation. The 49ers are a positive matchup given all of their defensive injuries.
Rico Dowdle - 64.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Panthers got out of their typical identity against the pass-funnel Bucs, so Dowdle predictably had a down game. He's the RB33 on RB22 usage this month, while losing the late-down snaps and occasionally the hot hand to Chuba Hubbard. This week, the Panthers face one of the best defenses (Seattle) on a lowly 18.0-point team total.
Tyrone Tracy - 73.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Giants were too inexperienced to face DC Brian Flores in the pass game, so Tracy had extra carries early on. It was more of a drive-by-drive rotation instead of Tracy between the 20s and Devin Singletary near the goal line. But if LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) can't go, then this offense takes a notable hit in all phases. He's the RB23 on RB29 usage this month.
Woody Marks
The rookie returned to a full practice on Wednesday and retain the starting job against the Chargers, though Jarwah Jordan and Nick Chubb will eat into his snaps to some degree. Los Angeles has a great defense, but it is more susceptible to consistent rushes if the OL can cooperate. Marks averaged 9.6 half PPR points on 14.2 expected points (very inefficient) in 8 games since their bye week as the lead back.
Chris Rodriguez - 8.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
He started and even had a season-high 14.4 expected half PPR points, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt handled multiple goal-line carries while operating for a bulk of the 2nd quarter. Rodriguez is still a goal-line threat, but if the Commanders want to see more of the rookie, then his usage takes a real hit. That's especially true if Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) can't go. Josh Johnson can't play the guitar. He's the RB29 on RB30 usage this month.
Breece Hall - 71.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Jets offense has fully collapsed with UDFA QB3 Brady Cook. He's the RB39 on RB23 usage this month with him. This week, New York has rain in the forecast and a lowly 14.75-point team total against the Patriots. Despite trailing, the staff hasn't manufactured a bunch of receptions to Hall. Bummer.
Michael Carter - 69.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cardinals largely used Carter as the lead back, though Corey Kiner had a stint while Emari Demercado played on passing downs. It only led to 7.4 expected half PPR points because there wasn't a goal-line opportunity and the pass game really struggled for the first time in a while.
Zach Charbonnet - 45.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB34 on RB34 usage. Nothing has changed.
Tyjae Spears - 45.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 17.1 expected half PPR points because the Titans actually had a blowout win against the Chiefs' QB3. It's not something we can bank on moving forward, but the Titans' OL and QB play have improved recently. He's the RB35 on RB32 usage.
Chuba Hubbard - 39.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB31 on RB43 usage.
Audric Estimé
Update: Kamara hasn't picked up the phone. He is podcasting though!
We'll see if Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) picks up the phone to return to the team, but Estime was the starting RB last week without him and Devin Neal (IR). That didn't really matter, however, because he lost pass-game snaps to Evan Hull and short-yardage snaps to Taysom Hill. Perhaps the Taysom stuff was a home-game career-ending hat tip, but there was some big plays from Taysom to be fair. Ultimately, Estime had 7.0 expected half PPR points in his start in a game they scored 29 points at home against the Jets. That's not good enough.
Isiah Pacheco - 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's playing more than Kareem Hunt at this point (season-high 14.2 expected half PPR), but it's all for not with QB3 on a short week behind in an injured OL, especially against the Broncos.
Raheim Sanders
Update: Dylan Sampson (hand) was limited on Wednesday for the first time since his injury.
Quinshon Judkins will miss at least the next 4-5 months with a dislocated ankle. We'll see if Dylan Sampson (hand) can return after not practicing last week, but if not, it'll be "Rocket" Sanders on early downs and Traveyon Williams on passing downs. That's an ugly split behind a terrible OL and a terrible starting QB. Sanders had a season-high 10.6 expected half PPR points in relief. They obviously didn't go anywhere.
Tyler Allgeier - 30.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB42 on RB40 usage.
Week 17 WR Rankings
Puka Nacua - 108.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week without Davante Adams was a season-high 24.4 expected half PPR points. The Rams are projected for 29.0 points, the 2nd-most of the week.
Ja'Marr Chase - 90.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bengals have a 30.25-point team total.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 94.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR10 on WR10 usage this month, but in come back mode last week, JSN had a season-high 21.3 expected half PPR points. They shouldn't need a crazy comeback this time around as heavy favorites to the Panthers. Their 25.5-point team total is strong.
George Pickens - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR21 on WR13 usage, after one meltdown game and one tough matchup. With his head on straight in a better matchup for him, Pickens balled out last week. That's been the situation more times than not this year. A matchup with the Commanders' tanking vanilla injured defense is one to absolutely attack. Dallas has a 28.75-point team total. BBQ chicken.
CeeDee Lamb - 79.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Have you see the Commanders defense? He had 5-110-1 against them in a 44-point blowup game back in Week 7.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR3 on WR1 usage this month, even while playing through injury.
Chris Olave - 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR9 usage this month, and Olave had a season-high 23.1 expected half PPR points last week with DeVaughn Vele and the top-3 RBs out. Tyler Shough: What if he's simply good? In fact, Shough hit Olave for what could've been his 3rd TD, but a DB knocked it out of Olave's hands at the last minute. Most of the missed targets were on downfield routes, so the ceiling is so obviously there right now.
Jameson Williams - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR4 on WR6 usage this month.
Courtland Sutton - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Broncos have been a pass-first offense since the JK Dobbins injury. Last week was a season-high 22.1 expected half PPR points, and Sutton was awesome (again). He's up to WR9 on WR5 usage this month. Give him his props. The Chiefs' defense looked checked out last week against the Titans, and CB1 Trent McDuffie was out with an injury and now CB2 Jaylon Watson (groin) isn't practicing either. Denver's team total is well above average at 25.25 points.
Tee Higgins - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bengals have a 30.25-point team total. Higgins has averaged 14.2 half PPR points in his 10 healthy games without Jake Browning.
Nico Collins - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR7 on WR14 usage this month, but this will be a challenge against the Chargers' disguising zone defense. The offense has been so up-and-down, and this is the type of defense that can give an inconsistent, young offense trouble. Collins, however, is a total monster.
Mike Evans - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR14 on WR3 usage this month after coming back from injury. Evans scored a vintage goal-line jump ball at the goal line and was given another chance for one later. He's in a rotation with Jalen McMillan also back, and the Bucs offense would take a hit if LT Tristan Wirfs can't play, however. But his tape remains very good individually.
Drake London - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He returned to WR12 usage last week. London didn't connect on his jump balls, had a drop, and then slid out on a comeback route. That typically doesn't happen with him, but he also wasn't limping around. The big game is possible, though it's harder to pull off with a 20.5-point team total against the Rams. That secondary is at least quite banged up, and Kirk Cousins' experience should handle the disguise looks better than others.
A.J. Brown - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR5 on WR7 usage this month, but the Bills' zone defense can be tricky and their CB play is the best part of their defense right now. Philly's offense has improved recently with Nick Sirianni helping out the OC during the week.
Jauan Jennings
George Kittle (ankle) couldn't finish Monday Night Football, and even with him healthy this month, Jennings is the WR11 on WR20 usage. The 49ers are now the best offense in terms of EPA per play since Brock Purdy returned, and Jennings won't leave the field. A home game with a 27.5-point total against an iffy Bears defense only adds to the excitement.
DJ Moore
Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle) didn't practice Wednesday. Moore absolutely balled out at the catch point without them last week and is the WR23 on WR29 usage this month. They can't throw it to Olamide Zaccheaus reliably, so Moore is extra important in a clean weather game as slight dogs to the injured 49ers. It's shaping up to be a great spot if others miss.
Jakobi Meyers - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR18 on WR8 usage this month.
Michael Wilson - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He only ran a route on 80% of dropbacks last week with the Cardinals using plenty of 2-TE looks, but Marvin Harrison Jr. was even more limited (60%). Wilson was lucky to have the ball bounce into his lap for a TD, while Marv dropped his contested catch end zone target. There is enough volume for both or either to pay off, but Wilson's matchup opposite of CB1 D.J. Turner is much easier. The Cardinals project for 23.5 points as heavy road dogs to the Bengals.
Stefon Diggs - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte is in the concussion protocol, which could mean more routes than Diggs has been running recently. He went nuts last week in a clean matchup in the slot last week, and that should continue against the Jets without CB Sauce Gardner. This should be an upside game versus his recent baseline as the WR29 on WR43 usage this month. New England has a 28.0-point team total. It'd help if TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) didn't play.
Tetairoa McMillan - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR27 on WR45 usage this month, but the OROY candidate lit it up in a pass-funnel matchup last week on 10 targets. That's a similar game script in Week 17 with the Seahawks' defense coming to town. They're excellent, limiting the Panthers to a lowly 18.0-point team total, but it also could mean the Panthers can't run the ball the entire game like they like to do. Whenever McMillan sees 7+ targets, he averages 75 YPG (n=10). He just busts in ball-control wins. That'd be a surprise here.
Brian Thomas - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Predictably, it was a season-low 3.2 expected half PPR points for Thomas last week while having All Pro CB1 Patrick Surtain shadowing him. That won't be a problem here. The Colts top-2 CBs are injured, and this game is back indoors. Jacksonville's 27.0-point team total mean big plays are waiting. He'll live in a difficult and volatile downfield role, but this matchup is so much cleaner. Thomas is the WR38 on WR44 usage this month.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR35 on WR16 usage this month. Jaxson Dart failed the DC Brian Flores test last week, but the Raiders' vanilla zone defense is far easier to attack.
Terry McLaurin - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR20 on WR18 usage this month with different QBs. Hopefully Marcus Mariota can suit up, but even if he does, that's a right-hand injury with some new OL injuries. There's volatility here. That said, the Cowboys' pass defense is an embarrassment, so the Commanders still pop up with a 21.75-point team total. That's about league average.
Christian Watson
He's the WR19 on WR21 usage this month. We'll see about the QB later, but this assumes Jordan Love (concussion) can play. The Packers team total is lower than normal at 21.5 points.
Justin Jefferson - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR70 on WR24 usage this month, but Jefferson is at least coming off his best game in a while. Max Brosmer is a QB3 for a reason, however.
Jaylen Waddle - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR28 usage this month with the Dolphins fully leaning into the run. Quinn Ewers played reasonably well for a 7th-round rookie, but Waddle was missed on a corner route pretty badly at the same time.
DeVonta Smith - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR27 usage this month, as a rare buy low per my model. Smith's matchup on the perimeter isn't very clean, and the Bills' zone defense is the type of thing that gets Jalen Hurts spooked. Their team total only sits at 20.5 points, and there's rain in the forecast. Smith is so good that he deserves some benefit of the doubt, but there are real negatives in the preview.
Zay Flowers
This assumes Lamar Jackson (back) can't play. He's the WR15 on WR22 usage with him this month, but Tyler Huntley has done a great job getting Flowers the rock in limited action this year. Flowers has a 28% targets per route rate and none of them were screens. The Ravens' sinking team total (18.75 points) keeps the upside in check, but there's at least signs of WR3 hope. The Packers zone defense typically allows short passes to the flats.
Ladd McConkey - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR40 on WR42 usage this month, and now the Chargers' OL will have to deal with the Texans' freaks up front. McConkey will see some, but not all, of CB1 Derek Stingley. Unfortunately, the Chargers formation diversity and their depth at receiver means the entire offense is being subbed around.
Tre Tucker - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Brock Bowers was placed on IR, despite playing 53-of-54 snaps last week and finishing his last snap with a 30-yard sprint. Is that a coincidence with this Giants game largely deciding who will get the 1st overall pick? Hmmm. Anyways, Tucker gets a big boost here as the lone full-time receiver in the offense from last game. Across the season without Bowers and Jakobi Meyers on the field, Tucker has 7 targets on 29 dropbacks (24%). Without Bowers but with Meyers, that's 16%. And finally without Meyers but with Bowers, that's 18%. Let's split the difference and go with somewhere around 18-20%, which is enough for dart throw consideration. The Raiders' 21.5-point team total is around league average, and Geno Smith is expected to start.
Alec Pierce - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR16 on WR47 usage this month, and Philip Rivers showed enough on tape to have some upside chance, even if he can't really push the ball downfield. The Colts are indoors against the most pass-heavy defense in neutral situations, too.
Michael Pittman - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR55 on WR37 usage this month. Philip Rivers is better than most backups, even if he can't throw the ball more than 25 yards downfield anymore. That takes the ceiling away, but there's a path to some success against the Jaguars, who's defense has been 1st in neutral pass rate allowed all year long.
Mack Hollins - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte is in the concussion protocol, and the biggest beneficiaries are 3rd-round rookie Kyle Williams and veteran bare-footer Mack Hollins, who is the WR46 on WR25 usage this month. The Patriots face a lifeless Jets defense, so there's real upside with a 27.5-point team total, even if Hollins won't be a full-time player.
Marvin Harrison - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 5.3 expected half PPR points. He only ran a route on 62% of dropbacks and continued running the most difficult routes at X receiver. Harrison had a brutal drop in the end zone to spoil his day. His contested catch ability simply needs to improve. I'd guess his heel injury gets better week-over-week, but Harrison isn't separating from Michael Wilson and doesn't have a guaranteed full-time role right now. He's as boom-bust as ever. That's especially true against Bengals Pro Bowl CB D.J. Turner on deck.
Deebo Samuel - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 4.8 expected half PPR points with Marcus Mariota leaving at half time and with Terry McLaurin operating as the top target. He's dipped to WR52 on WR38 usage this month, so the only saving grace is the individual matchup with the Cowboys inept secondary. Washington has a league-average 21.75-point team total despite their own frustrations.
Adonai Mitchell - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR17 usage this month if you can stomach another Brady Cook outing. The Jets are projected for just 14.75 points, and he'll face CB Christian Gonzalez individually.
Parker Washington - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
What if he's kinda nice??? Washington broke a bunch of tackles in an extremely impressive win in Denver. The Jaguars are rewarded with an easier matchup in a dome against a Colts unit that was picked apart on Monday Night Football. He's the WR22 on WR39 usage this month as a dart throw.
Troy Franklin - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Pat Bryant (concussion) left on a stretcher. He was up to WR34 in usage while playing ahead of Franklin, but the former Duck has had top-36 usage himself when he was the secondary target to Courtland Sutton. The Broncos' newly-found pass-first offense gives Franklin dart throw upside.
Chris Godwin - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR33 on WR31 usage, but the Bucs offense has real warts. The receivers are rotating now that everyone is healthy, and LT Tristan Wirfs (toe) hitting the injury report would be very bad news with Baker Mayfield not seeing the field well.
Kyle Williams
The rookie is flashing, and he should play a lot more if Kayshon Boutte can't clear concussion protocol. Without him on the field last week, Williams ran a route on 13-of-16 dropbacks, while Diggs was at 12 and Hollins was at 9. It's the Jets, too.
Jalen Coker - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR17 on WR48 usage this month.
Jayden Reed
He's the WR43 on WR55 usage this month.
Jordan Addison - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR50 on WR41 usage this month, dropping way too many passes on tape.
Olamide Zaccheaus
In his 3 games without Luther Burden, Zaccheaus is at 8.9 expected half PPR points per game. He's a good athlete, but his hands and consistency against man coverage are quite lackluster. His upside is tied to just running by dudes.
Josh Downs - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR44 on WR32 usage this month.
Chimere Dike - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR47 on WR26 usage this month.
Quentin Johnston - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Khalil Shakir - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR53 on WR62 usage this month.
Romeo Doubs
Darius Slayton - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Emeka Egbuka - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He dropped to WR4 in routes behind Jalen McMillan.
Jack Bech
Keenan Allen - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy
Week 17 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 73.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE2 on TE1 usage this month. Last week was a dud for McBride, but he nearly scored two TDs on targets at the goal line and the Falcons just played his over-the-middle targets very well. Nothing has changed. This week, it's the dream spot. The Bengals have been the worst TE defense since Underdog was founded, and McBride has records in sight with little to play for. The Cardinals didn't get much out of Marvin Harrison Jr. back in the mix. The ball starts out designed for McBride on a lot of reps. That's especially true this week as 7-point dogs.
Kyle Pitts - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE1 on TE2 usage this month, largely without Drake London who returned just last week. Pitts still ran a route on 95% of dropbacks with a 26% target share and 15.5 expected half PPR points. Equally important, Pitts still looks awesome and fully healthy in a contract year. His TD was on a play designed for him in the red zone. He also had a screen reception, a flats reception off play action, 4 in-breaker receptions, and even drew another DPI in the end zone. He's close to a WR labeled as a TE.
George Kittle
He's the TE4 on TE4 usage this month, but Kittle left in the 2nd half of Monday Night Football with a knee/ankle injury. It seemed relatively minor, as he still had his helmet on while on the sideline.
Harold Fannin - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE3 on TE3 usage this month with David Njoku (knee) out. Over the last 3 weeks without him, Fannin is averaging an elite 14.2 expected half PPR points as the scam of the year (complementary). His tape is fantastic, however. He's a menace to bring down, which gives him manufactured touches every week, but the rookie can also run downfield routes, providing a weekly ceiling. Right now, Fannin is the rookie TE6 all time with a chance to get to TE3 if he keeps this up.
Hunter Henry - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE12 on TE5 usage this month and ran a route on 76% of dropbacks last week in a close win. The Patriots are 1st in neutral pass rate this month, might not have TreVeyon Henderson, and are projected for 28.25 points against a Jets LB room that keeps calling my phone for tryouts.
Dallas Goedert - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE6 on TE8 usage this month, and the Eagles offense has added some new designs with Nick Sirianni helping out OC Kevin Patullo. That included a ton of under center play action targets to Goedert two weeks ago, and then Jalen Hurts stepped up in the red zone to find him for a score last week. Those games were against the Raiders and Commanders, but the Bills aren't a great defense either. They are worse against the run for what it's worth.
Juwan Johnson - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE14 on TE14 usage this month, but Johnson was peppered last week without WR2 DeVaughn Vele and with Tyler Shough adding another solid game to his rookie year. There was a lot of underneath reps on his tape last week, which seems to be stickier week-over-week. Taysom Hill is playing more, but it's often as a RB, not a TE. Johnson is just less likely to score TDs than some others because of the Saints' red zone offense with Taysom and Shough involved. The rest of this profile looks good.
Brenton Strange - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE13 on TE9 usage this month, coming off a season-high 13.3 expected half PPR points in a very impressive win in Denver after a couple end zone targets. The Jaguars are projected for 27.0 points against a tired Colts defense coming off a Monday Night Football beat down.
Jake Ferguson - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE27 on TE17 usage this month, but the Commanders are even worse on defense. Dallas' 28.75-point team total is a sign to buy the dip.
Taysom Hill
Last week was a season-high 13.0 expected half PPR points, not even including his pass attempt with two minutes left to Chris Olave. This might've been a hat tip to Taysom for playing his last game at the Superdome, but these plays worked and they worked the entire game. Onto their 4th-string RB and 4th-string WR, Taysom operated in a high-volume role. We'll see if Alvin Kamara returns. If not, why not?
Colston Loveland
He's the TE15 on TE13 usage this month and is the TE7 since Week 9 (when Brock Bowers returned and I was looking at splits). We'll see if Luther Burden or Rome Odunze return, but if not, this is another good spot. Hopefully it pays off this time. Caleb Williams playing this well, and the 49ers' defense playing this poorly against some bad offenses are signs it can pay off. The Bears have a 24.5-point team total in beautiful California.
Dalton Schultz - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE7 on TE6 usage this month and ran a route on 78% of dropbacks last week in a close game. Schultz isn't wowing on tape, but CJ Stroud trusts him over the middle against zone coverage and has found him in the scramble drill a few times, too. A coverage bust in the end zone also helped. All that will be harder to navigate with an 18.25-point team total against the Chargers, who are stacked at LB and SS in particular.
Colby Parkinson - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 16 was a bust, but that doesn't mean the reality of what's happened since Week 9 goes away. In fact, he's the TE8 on TE11 usage this month still. The Rams are using their TEs at elite rates, especially without Davante Adams (hamstring), and Parkinson ran a route on 70% of dropbacks including 4-of-7 in the red zone. His floor is low because he's not an elite YAC threat, but his ceiling is evident by being a 6-foot-6 target attached to the MVP favorite. The Rams are projected for 29.0 points.
Tyler Warren - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Darren Waller - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE9 on TE15 usage this month. Quinn Ewers wasn't terrible in his debut, even if there aren't any traits that stood out either. Waller had a jump ball win because Ewers just tossed it up to him out of structure at least. His bigger issue is still being at 59% routes.
Mike Gesicki
The Bengals have a 30.25-point team total, and even with Tee Higgins back in the lineup, Gesicki still ran a route on 69% of dropbacks.
AJ Barner - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE16 on TE18 usage this month.
Dalton Kincaid
He's the TE20 on TE21 usage this month while playing through injuries. Last week in an oddly close game, Kincaid ran a route on 52% of dropbacks, so even if he's one of the elites on a per-route basis, there's no weekly floor. His season-low 2.1 expected half PPR points from last week are just that.
Terrance Ferguson
Last week without Davante Adams, the 2nd-round rookie had a season-high 7.9 expected half PPR points (TE14 usage). Ferguson is one of the fastest TEs in the NFL, and McVay seems obsessed with getting him 2-5 routes where he's the focal point of the design. The Rams are projected for 28.5 points.
Dawson Knox - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE10 on TE12 usage this month while Dalton Kincaid has played through injuries. Knox dropped a should-be TD last week.
Chig Okonkwo - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE17 on TE16 usage this month and is coming off a season-high 12.8 expected half PPR points.
Luke Musgrave
The Packers 3rd-string TE tore his achilles last game, so Green Bay is likely going to give Musgrave the entire game and live with his mistakes. That meant 82% routes last week at least. The former 2nd rounder can still really run in the YAC game, but the Packers offense is far too run heavy if it's Malik Willis instead of Jordan Love.
Travis Kelce
He's the TE19 on TE20 usage this month, and now the Chiefs are onto their QB3 against the Broncos on a short week. That's a 12.0-point team total. The retirement tour has certainly hit a wall.
Theo Johnson
Evan Engram - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 17 QB Rankings
Joe Burrow
The Bengals have a 30.25-point team total at home against a Cardinals defense that had 1st-round DT Walter Nolen and CB Garrett Williams leave on carts just last week.
Drake Maye
Have you seen the Jets play defense since they traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams? The Patriots are also 1st in neutral pass rate this month, and when they run it in the red zone, they've dialed up the Maye carries. He needs to finish strong to have a proper MVP case. This should be one, as the Patriots have an elite 28.0-point team total.
Dak Prescott - 20.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Cowboys have the 2nd-highest team total (28.75) against the Commanders who don't have their top-2 CBs or anything to play for.
Matthew Stafford
A Monday Night Football MVP showcase game against the Falcons, who are gifting the Rams a better draft pick if the Rams can win. Their team total sits at 28.75 points, tied for the 2nd-highest of the week.
Josh Allen
The Bills' super run-heavy approach, his foot injury, the snowy-rainy weather, and the matchup with the Eagles defense with All Pro DT Jalen Carter make this one of the most difficult pre-game spots for Allen. All that leads to a lower-than-normal 22.5-point team total, which sandwiches the Bills between the Cardinals (23.25) and Commanders (21.75).
Trevor Lawrence
The Jaguars are 2nd-highest in neutral pass rate this month, and now they're projected for the 6th-highest team total of the week (27.25 points). They'll be indoors against an injured Colts defense coming off a short week. Lawrence is adding some creativity to his game, just like Baker Mayfield did in 2024 under Liam Coen's leadership.
Brock Purdy
Not having Ricky Pearsall or George Kittle would hurt, but Purdy is balling out now that his toe injury is behind him. The 49ers are still projected for 27.5 points despite the injuries in what easily could turn into another shootout with the Bears coming to town. It's one of the handful of games without bad weather, and the 49ers have a lot to play for with the 1st seed within reach. Since Purdy has returned from injury, the Niners are 1st in EPA per play.
Caleb Williams
His tape is just getting better and better, even if he misses a few throws here and there. Hopefully Rome Odunze or Luther Burden can return, but even without them, Williams is a major threat in fantasy when game script allows for it. The Niners' are slight favorites, but the Bears are still projected for 25.0 points. San Francisco hasn't been able to generate much pressure, and some of Williams' best moments are in that 3rd, 4th, and 5th second after the snap. It's a great spot for him.
Jacoby Brissett
The dropback king will have game script on his side. The Cardinals injured defense doesn't have a chance of stopping the healthy Bengals, so Brissett has a 7.0-point dog script to work with. Cincy still doesn't have answers at LB, SCB, and S, which means downfield shots to his WRs and a healthy amount of Trey McBride should really work. Arizona's three backup OL matters less with the Bengals unable to rush the passer, too. 23.25 projected points is enough to get the job done.
Bo Nix - 17.9 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Broncos remain top-3 in neutral pass rate this month without JK Dobbins keeping them on track in the ground game. That means more Bo Nix air yards and scrambles. We'll see if the Chiefs offense can make this a game at all (Denver is 13.5-point favorites), but the Broncos are still projected for a healthy 25.5 points with Kansas City's defense arguably throwing the towel post elimination last week. No CB1 Trent McDuffie helps.
Baker Mayfield
All Pro LT Tristan Wirfs' new toe injury has me a bit nervous, as Mayfield is already playing without both of his guards, but nobody else seems to care. The Bucs have a very strong 26.0-point team total in Miami with the season partially on the line. Mayfield doesn't seem to be hurt right now. He's just not seeing the field as well, and there aren't guy running open all game long like they were with OC Liam Coen last year. Mayfield's accuracy is still up-and-down, but he can get hot and tends to run around (good for fantasy) when he's under pressure late in the year.
Jalen Hurts
The Bills' disguise-y zone defense is the exact unit that's given Hurts trouble over the years. Throw in some bad weather and quality CBs, and things look worse than normal for Hurts. The Eagles only project for 21.0 points in what could be a run-heavy, slow-paced game in general.
Jared Goff - 16.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
The Lions OL has fallen apart, and now Goff will go into Minnesota to sort things out against DC Brian Flores on a short week. Last week, Goff had "Kingsley Eguakun" at C with an injured OG Christian Mahagony returning a bit earlier than needed. Perhaps those starters force the Lions into more passing than normal, but it'd be a surprise to see a shootout here with the Vikings starting Max Brosmer on the other side.
Sam Darnold
The Seahawks have a strong 25.5-point team total in Carolina with the 1st-round bye up for grabs, and they've been passing the ball a bit more in neutral situations with their pass game healthy.
Jaxson Dart
It won't be as bad as it was last week when DC Brian Flores ruined everything. The Raiders vanilla zone defense doesn't threaten Dart's mental load, and hopefully that means the Giants will actually drop back in neutral situations again. Dart's QB designed runs decreased last week after spiking in Week 15. Those are key for fantasy points, and it's unclear what New York's plan is with them. We know Dart will scramble regardless of concussion narratives. A Dart win would make sure the Giants don't draft Fernando Mendoza 1st overall, so there's plenty of pressure here.
Tyler Shough
Since Week 10, Shough is fantasy's QB12 per game. His tape inside the pocket is pretty impressive for a rookie, and the Saints have sprinkled in some QB designed runs in addition to his straight-line scrambling ability. The matchup isn't a problem here with the Titans on deck. New Orleans' 21.0-point team total is a credit to Shough's mental capacity, as their OL and skill group remain injured.
Justin Herbert
He's a magician in the pocket to not be sacked despite seeing a 51% pressure rate last week, but what happens when that's now the Texans' freak pass rushers this time around? That's a lot to ask for. Herbert has been dialed in as a thrower and is even taking off more than usual out of necessity, so his fantasy production has stabilized despite having one of the worst OLs of the year. Los Angeles has a below-average 20.75-point team total.
Jordan Love
He was limited on Wednesday and is tentatively on pace to clear concussion protocol ahead of Saturday night's showdown with the Ravens. Their team total is only at 21.5 points and it'll be cold as hell, but the Ravens pass rush isn't great and their secondary has been up-and-down this year.
C.J. Stroud
Kirk Cousins
Bryce Young
Geno Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Cam Ward
Tyler Huntley
John Harbaugh seems upset at Lamar Jackson's ability to play through injuries. A 19.0-point team total has me nervous for his ability here. Even if he does play, a new back injury doesn't inspire confidence given this game will be in freezing Green Bay temperatures. I'm guessing it's Snoop Huntley.
Philip Rivers
Josh Johnson
Quinn Ewers
Max Brosmer
Shedeur Sanders
Brady Cook
Chris Oladokun
Week 17 Fantasy DEFs
The best defenses of the week are the Broncos, Patriots, Steelers, Saints, and Lions with honorable mentions to the Browns, Packers, Seahawks, and Texans.