Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. MIN (28.0 team total, -7.0 spread)
Minnesota is starting two inexperienced CBs in a man-heavy defense, meaning Hurts will be in advantageous spots with his two star WRs. It's no surprise Philly projects for the 2nd-most points this week. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 24.5 fantasy points.
2. Josh Allen - Bills vs. LV (28.25, -9.5)
The difference between playing on the road against the Jets and at home against the Raiders is staggering. Allen has averaged 23+ points for years. Buffalo is projected for the most points of the week despite last week's stinker. His aggressiveness makes him a fantasy star, even if it occasionally leads to some real-life INTs. Also, did you notice his willingness to run? So much for the offseason plans to reduce his workload!! The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 24.1 fantasy points.
3. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ JAX (27.0, -3)
I have a series with Steve Smith Sr. breaking down film each week. We started with the Chiefs. You don't know ball if you don't watch this show.... And if you don't have time, we both agreed that things will get better moving forward. These inexperienced WRs just need more reps to get their timing down. Jacksonville's offense looks sweet on the other side of the ball. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 23.1 fantasy points.
4. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. KC (24.0, +3.0)
Due to game scripts, the Chiefs were 31st against fantasy QBs last year and it's TBD if star DT Chris Jones is at his peak after sitting out the last month. Lawrence made some absolutely silly throws last week, many of them to alpha Calvin Ridley. He's the downfield option that the offense needed. This is the highest over/under of the week (51.0 points). The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 19.7 fantasy points.
5. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ TEN (24.0, -3.0)
New OC Kellen Moore called the most run-heavy game script of Week 1 (33% neutral pass), but that could've been matchup dependent with the Dolphins running a largely two-high shell defense. This week, Herbert faces the most pass funnel defense of last year. In fact, the Titans were 30th against fantasy QBs last year and were giving up consistent chunk plays to the Saints in Week 1. I'm expecting a more aggressive game plan, though the ground game looked sick in a new scheme last week. The Chargers OL is very good.
6. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. BAL (25.0, -3.5)
It's hard to distinguish if the Week 1 clunker was due to his calf injury, the rain, a combo of both, or not playing in the preseason. The betting markets believe in a bounce back, projecting Cincy for 25.0 points (6th most). Baltimore's defense is good but isn't the same as before, especially if CB1 Marlon Humphrey (DNP on Wednesday) is unavailable again. Star S Marcus Williams is out, too. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 19.0 fantasy points.
7. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ CIN (21.5, +3.5)
Baltimore's 21.5-point projection is lower than expected, but there are injuries everywhere already. Jackson will be without JK Dobbins (IR), two stud starting OL, and perhaps Mark Andrews. The offense lacked chemistry in Week 1, pivoting to a run-heavy plan (39% neutral pass) with lots of gadget passes to Zay Flowers. Andrews' return would be a big win against a defense that I think looks better in the stat sheet than they'll be in reality this year. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 20.0 fantasy points.
8. Anthony Richardson - Colts @ HOU (20.25, -1.0)
The Colts were aggressive on 4th downs and top-10 in neutral pass rate and in neutral pace in Week 1, which is the perfect setup for a dual-threat alpha like Richardson. He'll have some mistakes and misfired throws, but Richardson looked like a legit QB, despite the haters (of which there are many). It's an average road matchup against an ascending Texans defense with a stars-and-scrubs lineup. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 18.4 fantasy points.
9. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ NE (24.5, -2.5)
Coach Mike McDaniel is special, and Tua is coming off his best game as an individual creator. Things won't be as easy as they were last week in that shootout versus New England's aggressive defense. Tua hasn't passed for more than 1 TD in his 4 games against Bill Belichick, while averaging 181.5 yards passing. This offense is far more potent than it was in those matchups, of course. I can't wait to watch these two masterminds coach against each other when Miami has the ball. Don't miss it. The Dolphins have the 7th-highest team total of the week (24.5 points). The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 18.9 fantasy points.
10. Jared Goff - Lions vs. SEA (26.25, -5.5)
Detroit is 5th in projected points this week at home against an inconsistent Seattle defense, who is missing S Jamal Adams (out) still. Last year, the Seahawks were 24th in passing EPA allowed. Overall passing volume is a minor concern as 5.5-point favorites after starting the season off with a 43% neutral pass rate, but this is another friendly matchup for Goff. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 18.2 fantasy points.
11. Daniel Jones - Giants @ ARI (22.75, -5.5)
Going from the Cowboys to the Cardinals can't be overstated enough, and the betting markets agree with a solid 22.75-point team total. The Cardinals were 25th against fantasy QBs last year and have less talent this season, especially at pass rusher. Jones was a top-12 fantasy QB last year. I'm not pivoting away from him just because of Week 1. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 17.8 fantasy points.
12. Justin Fields - Bears @ TB (19.25, +3.0)
Fields is still struggling as a passer and the concepts are hurting him. When Fields isn't scoring 50+ yard TDs, he's average 15 fantasy points per game. If those breakaway runs regress this year, Fields will need the pass game to dramatically improve. Tampa Bay is a neutral matchup that could turn advantageous if CB1 Carlton Davis (DNPx2) and their starting SS are out. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 18.8 fantasy points.
13. Brock Purdy - 49ers @ LAR (26.25, -8.0)
The Niners are 4th in projected points this week. Even if Purdy isn't adding fantasy points on the ground (4.3 yards per start) and CMC is stealing a lot of the red zone points, it's impossible to rank him much lower than this. The Rams surprised last week defensively, but the reality is they only have one player who was drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. Purdy has superstars everywhere, including at play caller. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 16.9 fantasy points.
14. Deshaun Watson - Browns @ PIT (21.0, -2.5)
5-45-1 rushing is what saved Watson's underwhelming passing performance in the season opener (in the rain). That rushing, however, is what we saw in the preseason and could be a legit focus of the offense. The Steelers defense was gashed repeatedly in Week 1 because of sketchy play in the secondary, but T.J. Watt will be facing a Day 2 rookie OT after Tyler Conklin (knee) was placed on season-ending injured reserve. That has me a bit worried. Cleveland only projects for 21.0 points.
15. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. NYJ (24.5, -9.5)
The Jets will play so slow on offense with Zach Wilson, and their defense shut down Josh Allen in Week 1 after finishing top-10 against fantasy QBs, in passing EPA allowed, and in adjusted sack rate last year. This is a bad matchup, especially if the Jets are playing unserious offense on the other side. The Cowboys are 9.5-point home favorites.
16. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ PHI (21.0, +7.0)
Everything about the matchup is difficult: Kirk prime time, short week on the road, Philadelphia's elite pass rush, and missing OL starters due to injuries. Cousins will have a ton of volume, however. The Eagles play fast and should light up the Vikings' suspect defense, and the Vikings were 1st in neutral pass rate in Week 1. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 17.1 fantasy points.
17. Mac Jones - Patriots vs. MIA (22.0, +2.5)
We'll have to monitor the Patriots' OL, as they could be down 4 OL due to injuries. Even with backups last week, Jones seemed comfortable in new OC Bill O'Brien's offense. There were created yards consistently, utilizing a variety of modern concepts that play to Jones' strengths as an accurate, quick passer. The Dolphins will be better than they were last year against fantasy QBs (29th) with new DC Vic Fangio, but there is a lack of talent in the secondary with 3 CBs on PUP or IR. I'm not surprised that New England projects for an above-average 22.0 points at home. Week 1 was encouraging, aside from the mid WR group. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 15.3 fantasy points.
18. Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. CHI (22.25, -3.0)
The Bucs were 8th in neutral pass rate last week and quietly project for a solid 22.25 points this week against a defense that was smoked by the Packers in Week 1. Chicago was 27th against fantasy QBs and last in passing EPA allowed last year, too. Mayfield was aggressive in Week 1 throwing it up to Mike Evans. That'll be the game plan moving forward while the ground game continues to get shredded. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 14.7 fantasy points, which feels light to me.
19. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ DET (20.75, +5.5)
Both of his starting OTs are hurt, and the backups were turnstiles in relief. EDGE1 Aidan Hutchinson should tee off at home against them, and the rest of the defense looks noticably better after spending free agent dollars on it this offseason. Things are trending down quickly for Seattle, who is only projected for 20.75 points. The Seahawks had a 48% neutral pass rate in Week 1. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 17.4 fantasy points.
20. Jordan Love - Packers @ ATL (21.0, -1.5)
His Week 1 tape was fun because of play design, and Love showed more athleticism than he has before. It's unclear if Christian Watson and Aaron Jones will be active. If not, things become more difficult. The matchup on paper is friendly, but the Falcons have way more talent on defense. In fact, new FS addition Jessie Bates had two INTs in his Atlanta debut. Expect this to be one of the slower-paced games of the week. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 16.1 fantasy points.
21. Russell Wilson - Broncos vs. WAS (21.0, -3.5)
22. Derek Carr - Saints @ CAR (21.5, -3.0)
23. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. SF (18.25, +8.0)
24. Ryan Tannehill - Titans vs. LAC (21.0, +3.0)
25. C.J. Stroud - Texans vs. HOU (19.25, +1.0)
26. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. CLE (18.5, +2.5)
27. Jimmy Garoppolo - Raiders @ BUF (18.75, +9.5)
28. Bryce Young - Panthers vs. NO (18.5, +3.0)
29. Sam Howell - Commanders @ DEN (17.5, +3.5)
30. Desmond Ridder - Falcons vs. GB (19.5, +1.5)
31. Joshua Dobbs - Cardinals vs. NYG (17.25, +5.5)
32. Zach Wilson - Jets @ DAL (15.0, +9.5)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - SF is projected for the 5th-most points.
Saquon Barkley - Throw away Week 1, especially with Arizona on the schedule. New York is 11th in projected points as 5.5-point road favorites.
Tony Pollard - He handled all the goal line work in Week 1.
Josh Jacobs - He's the biggest positive regression candidate of Week 2 after finishing as the RB29 in half PPR points on RB2 overall usage. He's still playing 90% snaps.
Nick Chubb - 4 targets in the opener is a good sign.
Derrick Henry - It wasn't good that Henry was the RB27 in fantasy usage in Week 1 while losing snaps to Tyjae Spears all game, but the Titans aren't going to be that bad on offense all year (I hope). Henry faces the worst LB group in the NFL at home, while Tennessee projects for a solid 21.0 points. He had 163 yards against them late last year.
Rhamondre Stevenson - While battling an illness, Stevenson played more as the game progressed due to his receiving chops. Bill O'Brien created easy yards throughout the game, so the Patriots will score points this year. In fact, they're projected for 22.0 points at home against the Dolphins, who were just gashed by the Chargers in Week 1. Stevenson was the RB14 in usage last week even without New England having a goal-line carry. Emerging EDGE Jaelan Phillips is suddenly questionable.
Travis Etienne - He lost 2 goal-line snaps to Tank Bigsby, who was one of the worst players in the NFL in his rookie debut. If that changes, Etienne has an elite role. He ran a route on 30-of-36 dropbacks, leading to a RB13 usage finish. Jacksonville projects for 24.0 points at home against the Chiefs. Just make sure RB JaMycal Hasty is a healthy scratch again. That was helpful last week.
Bijan Robinson - Goal line opportunities may be an uphill battle, but Bijan will make up for it with explosiveness, an elite ground game design, and receptions in an offense led by a check-down QB. Robinson was the RB7 on RB19 usage in Week 1 despite losing all the goal-line reps to Tyler Allgeier.
Joe Mixon - We should take almost nothing from Week 1's game. The Bengals are 6th in projected points (25.0) this week as 3.5-point home favorites. Mixon played on 20-of-36 passing downs, while Chris Evans (out) and Trayveon Williams split a version of the Samaje Perine role.
Joshua Kelley - After ranking 2nd in RB usage last year, the Chargers were 1st in Week 1 by a wide margin on the lowest neutral pass rate. The Chargers OL also opened up a ton of rushing lanes, too, so efficiency should be solid moving forward. Kelley isn't a needle mover as a player, but he has the skills to play in all situations (and I think there will be easy yards because of the talent around him). The matchup is difficult with Tennessee allowing the fewest rushing EPA per attempt last year, but ultimately the Chargers project for RB volume. We chase volume here.
David Montgomery - The RB21 in fantasy usage last week, Montgomery handles the between-tackles role to set up Goff's play action attempts. The veteran also played most pass downs for pass pro reasons, in addition to his valuable goal-line role. Detroit will get Jahmyr Gibbs more involved moving forward (RB44 usage) but these are directionally sticky roles based on size/skills. A Jamaal Williams like season is on pace, with the Lions projected for the 4th-most points of Week 2.
Kenneth Walker - Down both starting OTs, Seattle's offense takes a hit and Walker will be even more boom-bust. The good news is he played a bunch of snaps, only really losing 2-minute drill snaps. He was the RB24 in usage with the Seahawks struggling in Week 1.
Alexander Mattison - After RB5 usage last week, Mattison faces a tougher Week 2 in Philly against a top-5 DL. We'll see if his receiving game translates at all because game script is working against Mattison's skillset. Minnesota was 1st in neutral pass rate last week, and Vikings C Garrett Bradbury has been ruled out.
Miles Sanders - WRs so bad that the Panthers have to throw the ball to the highly-paid Sanders, especially in garbage time. He was the RB9 in fantasy usage in Week 1.
AJ Dillon - This assumes Aaron Jones (DNPx3) is out. Dillon has clear 70% snaps in just one career game, so we're entering no man's land. His backup is a UDFA rookie from Fort Valley State, though he balled out in the preseason.
Dameon Pierce - Week 1 was brutal, but he didn't get a goal line opportunity and the Texans were getting smoked at half time, so his playing time took a hit. This week, Houston is only 1-point dogs at home. Things should look much better.
James Cook - He lost goal line and 2-minute drill snaps, but Cook at least was schemed touches throughout Week 1 on a team now projected for the most points of Week 2 (28.25).
James Conner - RB25 fantasy usage on 82% snaps in Week 1, and the coaching staff says they want to get him more involved in Week 2. The Cardinals have a fair home matchup with the Giants.
Raheem Mostert - He was the only Dolphins RB to get a goal line carry and a third-down touch in Week 1, leading to RB29 usage. Miami was 3rd in neutral pass rate in Week 1, so total volume will be capped in general. He does have the explosiveness to be a semi model breaker. Dolphins are 8th in projected points.
Jahmyr Gibbs - See RB12 David Montgomery.
Tyler Allgeier - He could be this year's Jamaal Williams after lining up at RB on every single Falcons goal line attempt, including on Bijan Robinson's receiving TD. Allgeier's consistent rushing is valuable to the Thicc Mustache whether you like it or not. Green Bay historically has been a run funnel on defense, which is music to Arthur Smith's ears. Allgeier was the RB6 in Week 1 usage.
D'Andre Swift - This assumes Kenny Gainwell (ribs) is out. He'll share the load with Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott, who was active in Week 1 because of special teams. I'd expect Swift to get the most snaps after Penny was healthy scratched in Week 1. Philadelphia is projected for the 2nd-most points on the week. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 53.5 total yards with 8.5 carries. I'm slightly more optimistic than that.
Kyren Williams - Cam Akers is expected to be inactive.
Rachaad White - 54-of-68 snaps last week but once again played well-below expected, finishing as the RB40 on RB32 usage. The Bucs have a nice home matchup with the Bears, who got smoked by Aaron Jones in Week 1 despite adding new LBs.
Javonte Williams - Subbed out on passing downs, Javonte will need to show more explosiveness in Week 2 or win in positive game scripts to pay off. The Commanders defense has some dogs up front, but Denver is 3.5-point home favorites.
Justice Hill - He was first in RB drills in practice, played ahead of Gus Edwards in the preseason, and entered the game before him last week. Hill's change-of-pace skillset more closely resembles JK Dobbins' role than Gus Bus's downhill style. This will likely be a 2-RB committee. Baltimore only projects for 21.5 points after a down Week 1.
Brian Robinson - RB11 usage in Week 1 is nice, but the Commanders only project for 17.5 points as a team (3rd-worst) this week.
Isiah Pacheco - He played more than CEH on early downs, even though the veteran started the game. They both lost passing-down snaps to Jerick McKinnon. A full-blown committee is expected, unless Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) can't play after going DNP-full-DNP in practice this week. None of them broke 10.0 expected half PPR points based on their usage in Week 1.
Jamaal Williams - Game script as 3-point favorites and an easier matchup than last week work in the Twerk God's favor in Week 2. He was the RB26 last week while losing 25% snaps to a combination of Tony Jones, Taysom Hill, and a fullback. We'll see if Kendre Miller (questionable) is playing later in the week.
Breece Hall - Probably at like 80% athleticism still, Hall flashed big play ability in his return. The Jets, however, project for 15.0 points against the Cowboys. Even with the big plays, the Jets initially had a snap count plan for Hall's early-season load. Will they throw that out the window out of desperation? We'll see. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook looked slower than he did in 2022 on his 50% snaps.
Najee Harris - An early-down committee member on the 5th-worst projected offense of Week 2. Harris doesn't have the juice to rip off many big plays either. The Browns defense also looks much better with a new coordinator and edge rusher. He was the RB48 in usage in last week's blowout loss.
Zack Moss - After Evan Hull's injury and Deon Jackson's really poor Week 1, Moss is the projected starter. He was a full participant in practice all week. The Colts faster-paced offense will work in his favor, but Anthony Richardson is a threat at the goal line.
Khalil Herbert - He rotated drives early with D'Onta Foreman before rookie Roschon Johnson played good ball purely in garbage time, but Foreman is expected to be a healthy scratch this week. Splitting things into two makes things much cleaner. With that said, this offense was unwatchable in Week 1 and only projects for 19.25 points on the road.
Dalvin Cook - See RB30 Breece Hall.
Rashaad Penny - See RB24 D'Andre Swift.
Gus Edwards - See RB26 Justice Hill.
Ezekiel Elliott - See RB8 Rhamondre Stevenson.
Samaje Perine - See RB25 Javonte Williams.
Jaylen Warren - See RB30 Najee Harris.
Roschon Johnson - See RB33 Khalil Herbert.
Tank Bigsby - See RB10 Travis Etienne.
Isaiah Spiller - See RB12 Joshua Kelley.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB34 Isaiah Pacheco.
Damien Harris - See RB19 James Cook.
Elijah Mitchell - See RB1 Christian McCaffrey.
Deon Jackson - See RB38 Zack Moss.
Emanuel Wilson - See RB23 AJ Dillon.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - See RB34 Isaiah Pacheco.
Cam Akers - The veteran started over Kyren Williams, but the latter out-performed him throughout the game. Akers actually played in clear-cut garbage time, too. Akers isn't the pass protector that Williams is, so a full-blown committee is likeliest. Akers was the RB18 in usage, compared to Williams' RB4 last week. It's not helping that the Rams are only projected for 18.25 points (4th worst) against the Fred Warner-led 49ers.
Justin Jefferson - Philly is a tough matchup, but things get easier without CB2 James Bradberry (concussion) and S Reed Blankenship (ribs). Even DT Fletcher Cox (ribs) is limited up front. With the Eagles likely putting up points on the other side, heavy volume is expected for the All Pro WR. We'll see if the Vikings promote rookie WR Jordan Addison to 2-WR sets after he scored a long TD in the season opener. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has Addison's projection at 40.5 receiving yards, compared to Jefferson's 93.5.
Stefon Diggs - In a way easier matchup than last week, Diggs will see a lot of 4th-round rookie CB Jakorian Bennett in coverage. This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
A.J. Brown - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
Ja'Marr Chase - The Ravens are missing CB1 Marlon Humphrey and S Marcus Williams in the secondary.
Tyreek Hill - Facing Bill Belichick is no fun (look at Tua's career numbers), but Tyreek is the schemed up superstar in the offense. He also gets rookie CB Christian Gonzalez, who saw 10 coverage targets in Week 1. I'm expecting the Patriots to try to double cover Tyreek. There just might not be any stopping this. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 15.6 fantasy points to Waddle's 12.0.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
Keenan Allen - The Titans were the biggest pass funnel of 2022. They were just torched by the Saints in Week 1, too, and starting CB Kristian Fulton and S Amani Hooker are out in Week 2. Expect the Chargers to pass more than they did in Week 1 when they were dead last in neutral pass rate. New OC Kellen Moore (smartly) changes his game plan week-to-week. I'd be stunned if it's not pass heavy. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 12.5 fantasy points and Big Mike at 9.9.
DeVonta Smith - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
CeeDee Lamb - This assumes no Brandin Cooks, but Lamb will see elite CB Sauce Gardner in 2-WR sets this game.
Jaylen Waddle - See WR5 Tyreek Hill.
Chris Olave - Last year's offense was vanilla, but Olave was used out of the backfield and in the screen game in Week 1. That's encouraging for his weekly consistency.
Deebo Samuel - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 11.5 fantasy points.
Tee Higgins - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 11.1 fantasy points.
DK Metcalf - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 11.1 fantasy points.
Mike Williams - See WR9 Keenan Allen.
Brandon Aiyuk - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 10.3 fantasy points.
Mike Evans - Despite the age, Evans looked to have plenty of juice on tape last week. He dusted the secondary on a post for a TD, dropped a near TD on a slant, and nearly came down with a long catch early on. The Bucs also gave him a screen. He faces 2nd-round rookie CB Tyrique Stevenson this week. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 9.1 fantasy points.
DeAndre Hopkins (Questionable) - Despite not practicing all week, Hopkins is expected to play through his mild ankle sprain. There is real risk here, but the matchup is nice as home dogs to the explosive Chargers and Hopkins was the WR9 in fantasy usage last week. Hopkins has played without practicing before. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 65.5 receiving yards.
Zay Jones - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 8.1 fantasy points.
Zay Flowers - He saw 5 screens last week. That level of involvement is unsustainable, but the Ravens do want to get him looks on "real" routes. Flowers looked the part in Week 1. Now the Ravens are projected to lose, so more dropbacks are expected. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 10.0 fantasy points.
Chris Godwin - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 9.6 fantasy points.
Tyler Lockett - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 9.4 fantasy points.
Gabe Davis - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 8.2 fantasy points, which I'll have highers on.
Garrett Wilson - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 49.5 receiving yards.
Jordan Addison - See WR1 Justin Jefferson.
Puka Nacua (Questionable) - He went from full to DNP to limited in practice with an oblique. He's expected to play through the injury, but it's concerning in addition to the matchup. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 43.5 receiving yards.
Kendrick Bourne - With JuJu and DeVante Parker dealing with injuries, Bourne is the clear top target in my opinion and has the profile to be this year's Zay Jones. He's a reasonably-paid veteran with a play caller that'll make huge improvements to last year's offense. He can win on the RPO looks that Mac Jones excelled in. New England was 2nd in WR fantasy usage last week while playing in catch-up mode. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 40.5 receiving yards.
Drake London - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 7.8 fantasy points.
George Pickens - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 43.5 total yards, which feels light to me without Diontae Johnson (hamstring) soaking up 25% or more targets.
Jahan Dotson - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 7.8 fantasy points.
Terry McLaurin - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 8.6 fantasy points, which seems a bit too high given his injury, his matchup with Pat Surtain, and Sam Howell's shaking Week 1 performance.
DJ Moore - Bucs CB1 Carlton Davis is out and SS Christian Izien is questionable. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 7.4 fantasy points.
Elijah Moore - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby had his projection at 36.5 receiving yards before the Amari Cooper news. With Cooper last week, Moore still ran a route on 28-of-35 dropbacks and saw WR34 fantasy usage. They've schemed him some looks in preseason and in Week 1, too. He's a quality streamer, assuming Cooper doesn't suit up.
Nico Collins - CJ Stroud cleared the rookie QB bar on tape, and Collins is the only downfield option on the team right now. The Colts lost multiple starters in the secondary this offseason. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 47.5 receiving yards.
Michael Thomas - On tape, Thomas showed the physicality and ball knowing to win on the perimeter but his yards after the catch ability is cooked right now. Maybe it improves long term. For now, he's fairly one dimensional. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 51.5 receiving yards.
Christian Kirk - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 7.2 fantasy points.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - It's a rookie matchup against rookie CB Brian Branch in the slot.
Courtland Sutton - Jerry Jeudy was a full participant on Thursday and is on track to return. That definitely hurts Sutton, thought he faces 1st-round rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes, who is 36 pounds lighter than Sutton. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 9.1 fantasy points.
Jerry Jeudy - He practiced in full on Thursday, but the latest report from Benjamin Allbright is that he will be on a snap count. That checks out based on the timeline of his hamstring injury.
Romeo Doubs - This assumes Christian Watson (DNP-DNP-limited) is out. Doubs was impressive on tape, using his size to score multiple red zone TDs. He's an underrated player, who should play more snaps another week removed from his own hamstring injury. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 6.5 fantasy points, which I'll have highers on.
TuTu Atwell - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 41.5 receiving yards.
Treylon Burks - This assumes DeAndre Hopkins is playing a full time role but not as effective as normal. Burks was the WR73 in fantasy usage last week and didn't look good against man coverage in his reps. He invites contact before the break too much.
Odell Beckham - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 6.8 fantasy points.
Kadarius Toney - A week of full practices makes him a candidate for more snaps in Week 2. They schemed him touches in his disaster Week 1 game. I'll buy his role with nobody else in the offense stepping up. For more, listen to Steve Smith Sr. and I here:
Skyy Moore - He wasn't on the same page with Mahomes in Week 1, which is key in this timing-based offense. Moore at least was a near full-time player, often utilized underneath. He's just done nothing in the NFL with his opportunities.
Michael Gallup - This assumes Brandin Cooks (knee) is out.
Isaiah Hodgins - He faces undersized 6th-round rookie CB Kei'Trel Clark on the perimeter after starting at X in the forgettable season opener. Still, the Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 5.6 fantasy points.
Jayden Reed - This assumes Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are out. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 6.9 fantasy points.
Tyler Boyd - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 6.6 fantasy points.
Amari Cooper (Questionable) - He is very up in the air to play after a Saturday practice injury, and he doesn't play until Monday Night Football where the only streaming options would likely be Donovan Peoples-Jones or Allen Robinson. It's probably not worth the risk.
Hunter Renfrow - Jakobi Meyers (concussion) is out.
DeVante Parker (Questionable) - He was limited all week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - He's simply not healthy right now.
T.J. Hockenson - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 49.5 receiving yards. While the Eagles are good as a whole on defense, they are relatively weak in the middle of the field, especially at LB. Philly just allowed Hunter Henry to finish as the TE1 overall last week.
Travis Kelce - He was limited all week and some of the Twitter docs believe he won't be close to fully healthy. Reports were more optimistic than that on Sunday morning, but I wouldn't rule out a 50-75% role this week while there's a chance of rain in the forecast.
George Kittle - He was upgraded from limited to full in practice this week. That's a good sign after a non full-time game in Week 1. The Niners are 4th in projected points against a defense that is weak at LB and S. This is a fantastic matchup. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 40.5 receiving yards. I will likely builds some highers around this.
Darren Waller - He was DNP-limited-limited in practice but was left off the final injury report. He says there's discomfort but he's fine to play. Arizona was 31st against fantasy TEs in 2022. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 54.5 receiving yards.
Mark Andrews (Questionable) - He was a full participant on Friday, but it's possible he's not all the way healthy if active. The Ravens are also only projected for 21.5 points this week.
Dallas Goedert - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 46.5 receiving yards, despite the goose egg in Week 1. The Eagles have the 2nd-highest team total of the week, so his TD odds are favorable in fantasy TE hell.
David Njoku - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby had his projection at 28.5 receiving yards before Amari Cooper had a setback with his injury. Cooper was DNP-full-limited in practice and seems unlikely to play on Monday Night Football.
Evan Engram - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 7.6 fantasy points in a great matchup against the Chiefs, who were 20th against fantasy TEs last year.
Kyle Pitts - Desmond Ridder had Pitts open multiple times, but he turned throws down repeatedly. Even with that, Pitts was first in yards per route run in Week 1 after a ridiculous downfield catch. There won't be consistency in Atlanta's 36% neutral pass rate offense, but don't blame Pitts individually. He continues to look awesome on tape. It's a QB thing in my opinion. With that said, Pitts opened Week 1 with TE31 fantasy usage and Atlanta only projects for 19.5 points against the Packers. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 6.6 fantasy points.
Dalton Kincaid - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 29.5 receiving yards, even though he ran a route on 76% of Week 1 dropbacks. That feels light in a much better matchup. The Raiders were 21st against fantasy TEs last year, and Buffalo projects for the most points of the week.
Luke Musgrave - This assumes Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are out, leaving few players worthy of schemed up looks. He pirouetted twice on his downfield targets last week instead of simply running into the end zone, but it is what it is. Musgrave was the TE2 in yards per route run despite the near big plays. He also ran a route on 24-of-30 dropbacks, including garbage time.
Hunter Henry - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 33.5 receiving yards after finishing as the TE1 overall last week. His familiarity with Mac Jones is a plus, and if the Patriots can get to the red zone more often this year (that's likely), Henry has red zone ability. As a reminder, Henry has the highest cap hit of any TE this year. He will be involved more than you want to admit.
Sam LaPorta - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 34.5 receiving yards.
Jake Ferguson - He was the TE1 overall in fantasy usage last week after seeing a target on 6-of-14 routes (LMAOOOOO), but the Ferg Daddy just didn't catch the ball when needed. That hasn't been an issue before, and finishing 2nd in PFF blocking grade last week confirms that his playing time isn't going anywhere. The Cowboys are top-10 in projected points. Ferguson won't leave the field very often.
Hayden Hurst - He was the primary read on a couple of red zone looks, and Hurst will benefit from the poor WR play. He was the TE2 overall on TE7 usage in Week 1.
Zach Ertz - He was 2nd in TE usage on 33-of-38 routes last week despite coming off a very serious knee injury. The Cardinals are desperate for garbage time playmakers, and Ertz is one of them. It just won't be a fun path to get into the end zone.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - Josh Norris told me to rank him higher, so here we are. Game script is kinder this week as home dogs to the Chargers. This is a perfect setup for the youngster, though DeAndre Hopkins is expected to play through his ankle injury.
Tyler Higbee - The emergence of Puka Nacua and TuTu Atwell come at the expensive of volume hog Higbee. This matchup is brutal against Fred Warner and company, who were 8th against fantasy TEs last year.
Juwan Johnson - 32-of-39 routes last week.
Dawson Knox -The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 24.5 receiving yards.
Cole Kmet - The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em lobby has his projection at 32.5 receiving yards.
Durham Smythe - He ran a route on 89% of the Dolphins dropbacks.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 2 are the Cowboys (vs. NYJ), Bucs (vs. CHI), 49ers (vs. LAR), Saints (vs. CAR), Broncos (vs. WAS), Packers (vs. ATL), and Commanders (vs. DEN).
Jk. I'm not a virgin.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.