Week 3 Battle Royale Rankings & Strategy
Traditional (salary cap) DFS hasn't changed in years and has been infultrated by the optimizers, but there's a new DFS format on Underdog Fantasy called "Battle Royale". It's 6-round, 6-person snake drafts that take just a few minutes to complete. This week's prize structure has $250k total with $50k to first place on a $5 entry, but there are also $25, $50, and $100 entry options, too. Safe to say the format is growing, thus why I'm putting more time and effort into content around it.
I wrote this general strategy guide for Battle Royale with the main points being: 1) We're still stacking and adding correlation like traditional DFS, and 2) We're still looking for lower rostered plays like traditional DFS. The latter can be exploited even more so in Battle Royale versus traditional DFS because there is an anchoring bias towards the default rankings and ADPs. Let's go over how to exploit it this week.
Stacking Options
Tier 1: Obvious Stacks
Josh Allen (5.3 ADP): If you can somehow pair Stefon Diggs (3.4 ADP) with Allen, do it. That won't happen too often versus other top stacks, and it's obviously an elite one with Gabriel Davis (33.4 ADP) and Dawson Knox (35.7 ADP) questionable. The latter are largely undrafted players, so there's a uniqueness angle to exploit if we get some injury clarity. As usual, late-breaking positive injury news is great for DFS, especially Battle Royale where most lineups (which can't be edited like traditional DFS) are submitted way before inactives are finalized. If either are good to go, I'd jam in those stacks. ... Bring back options: Tyreek Hill (10.6 ADP) and Jaylen Waddle (18.9 ADP).
Patrick Mahomes (14.6 ADP): Best paired with Travis Kelce (5.9 ADP), Mahomes is probably worth double stacking here with JuJu Smith-Schuster (35.4 ADP) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (35.9) rarely being drafted. The matchup is elite in general. ... Bring back options: Jonathan Taylor (7.4 ADP) and Michael Pittman (30.9 ADP), who is an excellent play after being underdrafted early in the week due to a questionable tag. He's since been taken off the injury report. Get some Mahomes + Pittman stacks.
Jalen Hurts (15.1 ADP): Drafted near A.J. Brown (13.1 ADP) at the turn, Hurts doesn't have to be double-stacked but can be with Dallas Goedert (29.5 ADP, drafted most times) or DeVonta Smith (35.7 ADP, rarely drafted). If you want to go full galaxy-brain, go Hurts without AJB and with either Goedert or Smith instead. ... Bring back options: Curtis Samuel (35.6 ADP) and Terry McLaurin (35.8 ADP) are both largely undrafted.
Lamar Jackson (19.6 ADP): Top-5 in neutral pass rate, L-Jax feels like a fantasy cheat code right now. I love him with potential TE separator Mark Andrews (13.4 ADP), though Rashod Bateman (34.9 ADP) gets the undrafted bump. Get some exposures here, as the next tier of QBs don't have the cleanest paths to the upside of these top-4 QBs. ... Bring back options: Unnecessary.
Joe Burrow (32.9 ADP): His matchup is great, and he'll be drafted only 40-70% of the time because he's the QB5 in default rankings. Obviously stack him with Ja'Marr Chase (6.5 ADP) and/or Tee Higgins (29.1 ADP), though double stacks are encouraged here. ... Bring back options: Garrett Wilson (34.9 ADP) and Elijah Moore (35.9 ADP).
Tier 2: Sub-50% Drafted
Kyler Murray (34.1 ADP): The Rams are banged up in the secondary, and the neutral pace in this game is elite. He has two primary stacking options, Marquise Brown (35.5 ADP) and Zach Ertz (34.0 ADP), especially if the questionable James Conner (36.0 ADP) can't suit up. With all three of these players going undrafted more times than not, this is an all-too-obvious team to be overweight on. Make it happen. ... Bring back options: Cooper Kupp (1.4 ADP), Tyler Higbee (34.6), and Allen Robinson (35.9 ADP).
Justin Herbert (32.6 ADP): His price has dropped recently due to his injury uncertainty, which is now priced in in the betting markets. Herbert and his pass catchers would be great leverage options if we get late-breaking positive injury news. Mike Williams (24.5 ADP) and largely-drafted Gerald Everett (35.2 ADP) are fully healthy, while largely-undrafted Keenan Allen (35.9 ADP) is "50/50 to play". Pay attention to the news because this could be a classic leverage play. ... Bring back options: Christian Kirk (31.6 ADP).
Tier 3: Rarely Drafted
Kirk Cousins (35.4 ADP): Obviously stack with Justin Jefferson (2.2), but Irv Smith (35.8 ADP) and Adam Thielen (35.8 ADP) are largely undrafted double-stack pairs for the full-blown galaxy-brainers out there. The Vikings are projected for the most points of the week, so this is a great deep sleeper Battle Royale team. ... Bring back options: Amon-Ra St. Brown (10.0 ADP) and D'Andre Swift (21.8 ADP).
Matthew Stafford (35.6 ADP): Stack with Cooper Kupp (1.4 ADP) obviously, but Tyler Higbee (34.6 ADP) and Allen Robinson (35.9 ADP) are the double-stacking candidates for the galaxy-brainers. ... Bring back options: Zach Ertz (34.0 ADP) and Marquise Brown (35.5 ADP).
Derek Carr (35.8 ADP): The target tree goes from 3 to 2 with Hunter Renfrow out, so Davante Adams (7.7 ADP) and Darren Waller (23.9 ADP)) both project better. Plus, the matchup is great due to injuries. ... Bring back options: Derrick Henry (21.0).
Tua Tagovailoa (34.8 ADP): The Bills are missing half of their defensive starting lineup, softening what would've been the league's most challenging unit. Tua can be double-stacked with Tyreek Hill (10.6 ADP) and Jaylen Waddle (18.4 ADP) with ease. ... Bring back options: Stefon Diggs (3.6 ADP), Gabriel Davis (31.8 ADP), or Dawson Knox )35.7 ADP).
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Jared Goff
Largely Undrafted Leverage
You can find my weekly rankings here to compare them to ADPs.
RB Alvin Kamara (35.5 ADP) - His ADP has sunk due to a questionable tag, but Kamara is expected to play through his ribs injury.
RB James Conner (36.0 ADP) - Also sunk due to a questionable tag, Conner seems truly questionable to play and could be inefficient on a bummed ankle, but these are DFS tournaments. We care about upside, and Conner has it if he plays.
RB David Montgomery (33.6 ADP) - Despite the haters, Montgomery is running very well and is handling two-thirds of the backfield touches in an offense that's 31st in neutral pass rate. The Bears' team total is as 21.25 points, which is middle of the back. This is a rare home favorite setup for D-Mont.
WR Michael Pittman (30.9 ADP) - This ADP probably climbs late, but some of the damage has been done when he was going undrafted in some drafts early in the week due to the injury report. He's off of it now, and the matchup is clean in projected negative game script.
WR Brandin Cooks (35.6 ADP) - The Texans are 6th in neutral pass rate, and the Bears could be without LB1 Roquan Smith and CB1 Jaylon Johnson.
WR Marquise Brown (35.5 ADP) - The game environment looks great with the Rams CB2, CB3, and CB4 all out. No Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins shrinks the target share to Brown and Zach Ertz mostly.
TE Zach Ertz (34.0 ADP) - See above, but in general, I like the elite TEs this week.
