Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. CHI (30.25 team total, -12.5 spread)
We're not going to waste our time here.
2. Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. IND (26.25, -8.5)
He looked much better in Week 2, by avoiding pressure and throwing the ball downfield. The Colts lost a ton of talent in the secondary this offseason and are 4th in passing yards allowed so far, after ranking 24th against fantasy QBs last season. Despite two key OL injuries, the Ravens have the respect of the betting markets. Baltimore projects for 26.5 points, and Lamar remains the entire offense. The combination of Mark Andrews underneath and a rotation of fast WRs on the outside creates a very high ceiling.
3. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ TB (25.25, -4.5)
Philadelphia is 32nd in passing success rate so far (a lot of it has been Hurts' fault), but they've scored on big plays to keep them afloat. The Eagles will figure out their pass game as they did last year, and they're still top-10 in neutral pass rate while being aggressive on 4th downs. The Bucs are middle of the pack in al defensive categories again, so this is a fine matchup for Hurts in every way.
4. Josh Allen - Bills @ WAS (25.0, -6.5)
The Commanders DL is no joke. They had 4 different players who ranked top-15 NFL wide in pressures last week (per PFF Brad), so Allen will have less room to operate this week after a huge bounce back. The Bills have built a functional ground game to complement Allen's playmaking, but they're still 2nd in neutral pass rate and projected for 25.25 points as a team. The one stat to monitor now that Buffalo has committed to 2-TE sets is Allen's average depth of throw, which sits at a career low 6.6 yards downfield so far.
5. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ MIN (26.5, +1.0)
New OC Kellen Moore has played into his opponent's weaknesses in each of his two games, but that doesn't help us out much here. Minnesota is 20th in EPA allowed through the air and 19th on the ground since 2022. They're bad at both, as we saw in Week 1 against Mike Evans and in Week 2 against D'Andre Swift! Herbert hasn't been the play maker that we'd like in critical situations, but the Chargers are 5th in EPA and 3rd in success rate despite an 0-2 record. It's no surprise Los Angeles is tied for 5th in projected points this week in the highest over/under game of the week (54.0 points) by a very wide margin. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 21.3 fantasy points.
6. Kirk Cousins - Vikings vs. LAC (27.5, -1.0)
Minnesota is 1st in neutral pass rate so far, partially because they're dead last in rushing EPA. The Vikings should expose the Chargers' poor communication and overall CB talent through the air, which is why this game has an over/under of 54.0 points. Cousins is 2nd in passing yards and tied for 1st in passing TDs so far. Los Angeles is last in EPA allowed. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 20.0 fantasy points.
7. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. DEN (27.25, -6.5)
It's unusual because they have a start CB in Pat Surtain, but the Broncos are 29th in passing EPA allowed, 22nd in success rate allowed, and 27th in pass rush win rate after losing multiple front seven players and their stud DC recently. On top of that, the Broncos have 3 starters listed as DNPs on Wednesday. At the same time, Tua likely will be without Jaylen Waddle (concussion), but the offense has completely run through Tyreek Hill to date and the betting markets still project the Dolphins for 27.5 points at home. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 19.0 fantasy points.
8. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. HOU (26.75, -9.0)
The Texans look competent on defense but are still just 22nd in passing EPA and 19th in success rate allowed through two weeks. It's a good bounce back spot for Lawrence and the Jaguars, who project for the 7th-most points on the week as major home favorites. Jacksonville's OL stood no chance against superstar DT Chris Jones last week, but Lawrence's day would've been saved if any of his receivers were able to get their toes inbounds. Inefficiency on the ground has kept the Jaguars 11th in neutral pass rate after ranking 6th in that metric last year. It's possible CB1 Derek Stingley and S Jalen Pitre both are out for Houston.
9. Dak Prescott - Cowboys @ ARI (27.75, -12.5)
Already lacking talent, the Cardinals placed DC Budda Baker on IR. Prescott is unlikely to drop back a ton given the game script, but he's live for multiple touchdowns against a defense that was 25th against fantasy QBs last year, as Dallas projects for the 2nd-most points on the week. In blowout wins, Dallas has a 53% neutral pass rate (12th).
10. Jared Goff - Lions vs. ATL (24.75, -3.0)
Without David Montgomery (DNP Wednesday), the Lions may lean more pass heavy after opening the year with a below-average 47% neutral pass rate. Goff will obviously need Amon-Ra St. Brown (DNP Wednesday) to remain ranked this high, but the Lions offense is clicking again, ranking 6th in success rate on dropbacks. Even though Detroit projects for a very strong 25.0 points this week at home, there is volume concern in this game against an improved Falcons defense that literally runs out the clock on offense. Through two weeks, Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-fewest yards (against some bad offenses of course) on the 9th-fewest plays. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 17.9 fantasy points.
11. Justin Fields - Bears @ KC (17.75, +12.5)
It's been clear on tape, but Fields is thinking too much instead of being an athlete. He's said as much in pressers and vows to change that moving forward. He'll face a ton of pressure from DT Chris Jones and company (12 pressures vs JAX last week), so this won't be pretty. At the same time, Fields projects for rushing upside with scrambling turned up to the max against the Chiefs. Hopefully the Bears design some runs for Fields, who only has 4 designed carries through 2 games. I expect that to change, as it did later in 2022.
12. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. CAR (24.25, -6.5)
The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 251.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs. More notes on him later.
13. Brock Purdy - 49ers vs. NYG (27.0, -10.5)
Always a difficult ranking, Purdy quarterbacks for the team projected for the 4th-most points but is 28th in neutral pass rate. It's simply a coin flip on who scores the TDs. He's averaging 2.1 total scores per game in 10 healthy games on 228 passing yards per game. It's unlikely he'll need to throw as much as he did in some of those previous games as 10.5-point favorites. Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) is questionable after DNP-limited-limited practices. His absence would take a hit to the downfield pass game. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 16.3 fantasy points.
14. Deshaun Watson - Browns vs. TEN (21.5, -3.5)
The Browns are 31st in passing EPA per dropback through two weeks, after ranking 25th in the metric in Watson starts late last year. It's somewhat of a last call opportunity this week against the league's biggest pass funnel defense. The Titans were 30th against fantasy QBs last year and are 5th in passing yards allowed so far this season. Cleveland is likely to flip their neutral pass rate (47% so far) based on matchup and Nick Chubb's season-ending injury, but it's unclear if he'll ever feel comfortable again. His time to throw and pressure-to-sack rates are once again well ahead of his Houston averages. At least he's chucking the ball deep. Keep an eye out on Amari Cooper's status (DNP Wednesday). The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 16.8 fantasy points.
15. Matthew Stafford - Rams @ CIN (20.5, +3.0)
16. Jordan Love - Packers vs. NO (22.0, -1.5)
17. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ MIA (20.75, +6.5)
The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 15.1 fantasy points.
18. Daniel Jones - Giants vs. SF (17.0, +10.5)
He's missing Saquon Barkley, All Pro caliber LT Andrew Thomas, and G Ben Bredeson against a defense that was top 3 in passing and rushing EPA allowed. Jones will likely run even more than usual as 10.5-point road dogs, especially if coach Brian Daboll is calling plays again, but this is an overwhelming talent disparity. New York projects for bottom-5 points. The Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Lobby has his projection at 16.1 fantasy points.
19. Sam Howell - Commanders vs. BUF (18.5, +6.5)
20. Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. PHI (20.75, +4.5)
21. Derek Carr - Saints @ GB (20.5, +1.5)
22. Jimmy Garoppolo - Raiders vs. PIT (23.0, -3.0)
23. Kenny Pickett - Steelers @ LV (20.0, +3.0)
24. C.J. Stroud - Texans @ JAX (17.75, +8.5)
The Jaguars are 31st in pass rush win rate.
25. Desmond Ridder - Falcons @ DET (21.75, +3.0)
26. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. LAR (23.5, -3.0)
Reported as a true game-time decision, it feels like Burrow is trending towards missing this Monday Night Football game. His backup is one of the worst in the NFL, so there aren't many options to stream if you're waiting for more news. Perhaps Baker Mayfield is available.
27. Mac Jones - Patriots @ NYJ (20.0, -3.0)
28. Gardner Minshew - Colts @ BAL (19.0, +7.5)
This assumes Anthony Richardson (concussion) is out.
29. Ryan Tannehill - Titans @ CLE (18.0, +3.5)
30. Andy Dalton - Panthers @ SEA (18.0, +6.0)
31. Josh Dobbs - Cardinals vs. DAL (15.5, +12.5)
32. Zach Wilson - Jets vs. NE (17.0, +3.0)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
Tony Pollard - He's the RB1 overall in fantasy usage. Next up, Arizona.
Bijan Robinson - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
Derrick Henry - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart.
Josh Jacobs - In a combination of poor OL play and rust, Jacobs is 36th out of 37 RB qualifiers in yards before contact per PFF, meaning he's being hit behind the line of scrimmage on average. That will explain his ridiculous efficiency so far. That should even out, and he's been the RB9 in fantasy usage despite the Raiders ranking last in plays so far. The RB1 production is coming. He's a 2.5-point home favorite against the Steelers, who have allowed the most half PPR points to RBs so far (granted it was against Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb/Jerome Ford).
Kenneth Walker - He's the RB6 in fantasy usage because of his goal line role and improving receiving role (5 catches on 5 targets on the RB21 routes). The Seahawks are 6-point home favorites against Carolina, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs so far. By the way, Walker's tape as a rusher has been exciting again. A long run is coming.
Travis Etienne - Jacksonville is 7th in projected points as home favorites to the Texans. No Jaguars RB saw a touch in the 4th quarter last week because of game script, but that shouldn't be an issue. It's also worth noting Tank Bigsby only saw 12 touches after a poor Week 1. It's unclear if Etienne will get the goal line opportunities that he didn't get in the opener moving forward. He played 73% Week 2 snaps and is the RB4 in routes this year.
Kyren Williams - He's the RB4 on RB3 overall fantasy usage, and Cam Akers isn't returning. Williams doesn't look like a difference maker on tape, but he's trusted by Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. That's what matters most at this point. The Rams project for 20.5 points on the road against the struggling Bengals.
Jahmyr Gibbs - This assumes David Montgomery is out, leaving Craig Reynolds ($940k) and Zonovan Knight ($216k) in the thiccccc boy role. Those two are unlikely to see the usage Montomgery would've seen, so Gibbs profiles better this week even if he's not trusted in all capacities after primarily being used an outside rusher and receiver, while getting lit up in his lone pass protection rep. The Lions are 11th in projected points (25.0) at home against the Falcons. Atlanta has been limiting plays against them with their improved defense.
Joshua Kelley - Austin Ekeler is out. The Chargers are 5th in projected points against the Vikings, who have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards to RBs through two weeks. Kelley failed in a bad matchup last week partially because the Chargers didn't have a play inside their own 5-yard line all game, but Kelley did play on 80% snaps including in the 2-minute drill and in the red zone.
Raheem Mostert - Miami is 4th in projected points. Salvon Ahmed (groin) looks unlikely to play, and De'Von Achane has earned three (3) offensive snaps in two (2) games despite a myriad of injuries.
Rhamondre Stevenson - The Patriots have been trailing literally the entire season on offense, so game script will flip for Stevenson as 6.5-point road favorites. The Jets are a nasty defense, however, and it's possible Stevenson actually profiles best while trailing as he's currently the RB2 in routes run. Last week, Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott both played early before Stevenson took over late in the game.
D'Andre Swift - After a huge Week 2 behind massive rushing lanes, I project Swift to be the lead back with Kenneth Gainwell (ribs) moving back to his change-of-pace role. It's an uncertain situation, however. Luckily the Eagles project for 25.25 points as 4.5-points road favorites. Game script leans Swift's way.
Brian Robinson - He's the RB8 in usage, but game script has flipped. The Commanders are 6.5-points home dogs to the Bills. Even though he isn't getting the ball, Antonio Gibson is in fact running more routes than B-Rob. The difference this year is that Robinson is getting a few early-down targets with RB-friendly OC Eric Bieniemy.
Alexander Mattison - With 3 OL out of the lineup, Mattison has led the Vikings to being the worst rushing EPA team in the NFL (by far). It's probably too early for more Ty Chandler after giving Mattison a 2-year deal, so this is a nice buy low spot. The Chargers LBs are insulting, and the Vikings project for the 3rd-most points on the week as home favorites. He needs his red zone TDs because the Vikings are 1st in neutral pass rate. Mattison has reasonable TD odds despite being the RB21 in usage so far.
James Cook - His tape was sweet. He's involved heavily between the tackles. But Cook's size has prevented him from working in the red zone and in the 2-minute drill (pass protection). He's the RB18 on RB20 usage so far. That checks out. This week, the Bills "only" project for 25.25 points against the loaded Commanders DL. They've been 6th-best against fantasy RBs through two weeks. That also checks out.
Gus Edwards - Baltimore is 8th in projected points (26.25) as 7.5-point home favorites to the Colts. Justice Hill saw more pass game usage and outside carries in Week 2, while "Bus" was the downhill rusher. Edwards was a baller on his usage, converting his lone goal line touch which happened to be after Hill failed on his goal line opportunity. On Wednesday, reports suggest Hill could miss Week 3 with a turf toe injury. That would leave Edwards and the ghosts of Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake.
Tyler Allgeier - This is an "eruption spot" per the chart, and Allgeier is the RB19 in fantasy usage so far. He was seen on the goal line for two snaps after Bijan failed his goal-line attempt on 2nd down last week. There should be some red zone opportunities for the downhill runner moving forward, even if Bijan looks outrageous.
Miles Sanders - Predictably so, Sanders has RB13 fantasy usage but has struggled in one of the worst offenses. Sanders will remain heavily involved out of necessity when it comes to touches, even if Chuba Hubbard is also playing snaps. Sanders is awaiting his first opportunity inside the 5-yard line. Carolina projects for 18.0 points against Seattle, who are 6th-worst against fantasy RBs so far.
Joe Mixon - This assumes Joe Burrow (calf) is out or really limited. Mixon has been hurt by the Bengals' slow start, but he's still the RB14 in fantasy usage while playing on 78% snaps.
Zack Moss - He literally played 99% snaps in his debut, leading to RB12 usage. His game script isn't as kind this week, however. The Colts are 7.5-point dogs to the Ravens, who have allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far. Trey Sermon will be his RB2...
Jerome Ford - The Titans have allowed 118 scoreless yards to RBs with just 4 receptions because they have aliens up front and are vulnerable in the secondary. Ford is expected to be the clear lead over recently-signed Kareem Hunt, who I think is pretty cooked in general. Ford is an 80% Chubb player who can do just enough in all phases. Here's our film evaluation of him from this offseason:
Dameon Pierce - He's 35th out of 37 RBs in yards before contact, meaning he's being lit up by defenders early. We'll see if All Pro LT Laremy Tunsil returns this week for Pierce, who is a 9-point dog to the Jaguars this week. Pierce's 37% route rate has been a disappointment so far, but it's at least worth noting that the Texans have already benched one of their 3rd-down options. We've seen Pierce play more than he has before, and I hope he earns more snaps moving forward. Zoomers would call this blurb "cope". Pierce is the RB27 in fantasy usage so far. Last week, he had a notable 15.2 expected half PPR points but didn't score on his red zone looks.
Rachaad White - No Chase Edmonds means potentially more receiving down snaps, as UDFA rookie Sean Tucker is White's primary backup now. Tucker, by the way, is dead last in yards after contact right now. Meanwhile, White bounced back last week, currently ranking as the RB20 on RB18 usage. Tampa Bay has been lucky on 3rd downs so far and are unlikely to keep up this efficiency moving forward after an easy opening schedule. The Eagles are a much tougher task up front. They've allowed 89 yards on 29 carries (3.0 YPC) so far.
Isiah Pacheco (Questionable) - He was a DNP-limited-limited. Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be the early-down back to Jerick McKinnon's passing downs if he misses. The Chiefs project for the most points on the week (30.0) as 12.5-point favorites against the Bears. Chicago is 4th-worst against fantasy RBs through two weeks, but the Chiefs are dead last in RB fantasy usage, too. It's a bat fight.
Kendre Miller - With Alvin Kamara (susp) and Jamaal Williams (hamstring) out, Miller will draw a start in his debut with only Tony Jones as his primary competition at RB. Taysom Hill threatens at the goal line still, but Miller faces the vulnerable Packers up front. They're once again top-6 in rushing yards allowed to RBs. We liked Miller's college profile here:
AJ Dillon - This assumes Aaron Jones (DNP-limted-limited) is out. Last week's dud was influenced by the Falcons running out the clock, but Dillon did himself little favor en route to 8.8 expected half PPR points based on his usage. Game script works in his favor here as 2.0-point home favorites to the Saints. Green Bay is 30th in play volume right now, which I expect to go up.
Najee Harris - It's not looking good.
James Conner - The Cowboys have allowed 122 scoreless yards to RBs so far. Conner will need garbage time receptions most likely, and he has only ran a route on 37% of dropbacks.
Javonte Williams - He's without a touch on 3rd down, and he's been predictably inefficient coming off a severe knee injury. The Broncos are 6.5-point dogs to the Dolphins, meaning game script leans more towards passing-down RB Samaje Perine. I also didn't love that UDFA rookie Jaleel McLaughlin saw the only red zone carry (in the 1st quarter at that) last week.
Craig Reynolds - See RB11 Jahmyr Gibbs.
Breece Hall - He's the RB50 in fantasy usage.
Roschon Johnson - Game script favors Johnson.
Matt Breida - Likely the starter on Thursday Night Football, Breida gets a brutal matchup with the 49ers, who are expected to hold the Giants to 17.25 points (4th worst). The 28-year-old is on a 1-year, $1.4M contract with 2021 6th-rounder Gary Brightwell backing him up. New York will be without Pro Bowl caliber LT Andrew Thomas and OG Ben Bredeson, too.
Jaylen Warren - See RB29 Najee Harris.
Samaje Perine - See RB32 Javonte Williams.
Kenneth Gainwell - See RB15 D'Andre Swift.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB25 Isiah Pacheco.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - See RB25 Isiah Pacheco.
Tony Jones - See RB24 Kendre Miller.
Dalvin Cook - He's the RB43 in fantasy usage.
Latavius Murray - See RB17 James Cook.
Damien Harris - See RB17 James Cook.
Zonovan Knight - See RB11 Jahmyr Gibbs.
Justin Jefferson - I wish the Chargers luck. 101.5 yards in Pick'em.
Tyreek Hill - Facing CB Pat Surtain but FS Justin Simmons is out. No Waddle means even more schemed up touches for Tyreek.
Stefon Diggs - BUF is 2nd in neutral pass rate.
Keenan Allen - Averaging 7.3 grabs in last 11 games. Now, MIN after starting off the year as the WR6 on WR5 usage. Looks like no Austin Ekeler again. 72.5 yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - LV projected for 22.75 implied points (more than you'd think), and PIT CBs were torched by Brandon Aiyuk and Amari Cooper already. This is an "eruption spot" per the chart. 74.5 yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - Already very iffy, ARI just put DB Budda Baker on IR. This is an "eruption spot" per the chart and common sense. 70.5 yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - Brandon Aiyuk is out. He's the WR10 in usage and SF is projected for top-5 points this week. Just as important, Deebo looks good again. This is an "eruption spot" per the chart. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - JAX projected for 26.75 points at home against a defense without CB1 Derek Stingley, CB2 Tavierre Thomas, S Jalen Pitre, and LB Denzel Perryman. Ridley's -10% completion percentage over expected will positively regress, and Zay Jones is out. 66.5 yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - TB was 25th vs. fantasy WRs last year. There's a squeaky wheel coming for AJB after getting mad last week, too. He's too good to not rebound very soon. 68.5 yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Playing on iffy toe perhaps, but he was a full participant on Friday with 71.5 yards in Pick'em.
Mike Williams - Positive regression candidate on WR16 usage. Huge WR/CB advantage in Week 3's highest projected game (o/u 54.0 points). 61.5 yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - The WR7 on WR36 usage. 61.5 yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - Tackled at the 1-yard line last week, and his route running intermediate is vastly improved. Big games are comign. 62.5 yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - This assumes Joe Burrow is out. At least LAR is starting Day 3 talent throughout their secondary right now, but CIN could be near the bottom in projected points with Jake Browning as the backup QB.
Michael Pittman - The WR13 on WR6 usage.
Chris Olave - He'll see some CB Jaire Alexander (questionable). 64.5 yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - He looks fast and healthy. 53.5 yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - 54.5 yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - TEN is biggest pass funnel, and Cooper is the WR18 in usage and WR6 in air yards already. 57.5 yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - A legit size/speed X receiver who has taken another step. Now he has the QB to take off on the WR4 in total air yards. CJ Stroud is the QB9 in yards per attempt in a clean pocket per PFF. 52.5 yards in Pick'em.
George Pickens - He's been targeted over the middle 8 times this year versus 15 times last year. No Diontae Johnson means more "easy" targets. LV was 31st in passing EPA allowed last year and is starting a 4th-round rookie CB on the perimeter. 51.5 yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - With 10 days to get prepared after an 0-2 start, Addison is primed to move into 2-WR sets in a game projected for 54.0 points. We've seen his downfield ability already even in a part-time role, and Adam Thielen was 2nd in routes last year, if you're dreaming of what Addison's upside is. Chargers CB2 Michael Davis is 4th-worst in receptions per coverage snap per PFF. 51.5 yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - Zay Jones (knee) is out.
Zay Flowers - No JK Dobbins or Justice Hill might mean a few touches behind the LOS. WR4 in expected TDs so far but without a receiving TD. Colts CB Darrell Baker has allowed the 2nd-most yards per PFF. 48.5 yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - 54.5 yards in Pick'em.
Tutu Atwell - Tied for 2nd in deep targets (15+ yards downfield), so he could be boom-bust every week. 55.5 yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - 51.5 yards in Pick'em after a week of full-limited-DNP practices.
Drake London - The Lions defense is rotten with injuries. SS Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (IR), CB2 Emmanuel Moseley (DNPx2), FS Kerby Joseph (DNPx2), EDGE Julian Okwara (IR), EDGE Josh Pascal (IR), and EDGE James Houston (IR) are all hurt. 52.5 yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - He only has 1 target 15+ yards downfield. 47.5 yards in Pick'em.
Michael Thomas - WR3 in expected TDs so far but hasn't scored. 56.5 yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins - This assumes Joe Burrow (calf) is not playing.
Marquise Brown - 43.5 yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - 52.5 yards in Pick'em.
Josh Reynolds - WR11 on WR35 usage as a full-time player. He'll be even higher if ARSB isn't healthy, and it's possible Detroit passes more without David Montgomery. His matchup is up-and-down because CB1 A.J. Terrell is a stud and CB2 Tre Flowers is 3rd-worst in PFF grade. He'll see reps against both. 42.5 yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks - Cardinals outside CB1 Marco Wilson has allowed the most yards and 14th-most receptions in coverage per PFF and their outside CB2 is a 6th-round rookie CB.
Jayden Reed - This assumes Christian Watson (DNP Thursday) is out. Saints NCB Alontae Taylor has allowed a target on every 3.5 coverage snaps, which is the 2nd highest so far.
Jerry Jeudy - 48.5 yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - He's leading all WRs in completion percentage over expected (+39%), which will regress negatively. 41.5 yards in Pick'em.
Skyy Moore - This assumes Kadarius Toney (questionable) and Richie James (out) are out. The Bears have been brutal, are missing FS Eddie Jackson (foot), and are starting a 2nd-round rookie CB on the perimeter, where Moore mixes in-and-out of. I project less of a rotation for the Chiefs this week, with Moore/MVS/Watson playing most of the snaps.
Elijah Moore - TEN is biggest pass funnel. 37.5 yards in Pick'em.
River Cracraft - Jaylen Waddle (DNPx2) is likely out. Broncos CB2 Damarri Mathis has allowed the 3rd-highest targets per coverage snap, partially because Pat Surtain is a dog on the other side. Cracraft is the WR7 in yards per route run (lol).
Robert Woods - The WR39 on WR13 usage.
Jahan Dotson - 42.5 yards in Pick'em. His average depth of target is lower this year while playing in the slot a little bit more:
Courtland Sutton - 45.5 yards in Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman - Odell Beckham (ankle) is out.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - He's averaging 12.5 air yards so far. 33.5 yards in Pick'em.
K.J. Osborn - 35.5 yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - WR40 usage but missed on deep balls. 36.5 yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - This assumes Christian Watson (DNP Thursday) is out, but Saints CB1 Marshon Lattimore has the highest PFF coverage grade right now.
Rashid Shaheed - He's a baller, but his +31% completion percentage over expected (2nd highest) will negatively regress. 40.5 yards in Pick'em.
Tank Dell - Noah Brown to IR opens up a near full-time role for Dell.
Adam Thielen - 35.5 yards in Pick'em.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - This assumes Kadarius Toney (toe) is out.
Justin Watson - This assumes Kadarius Toney (toe) is out. His aDOT is 21 yards downfield as the Chiefs' primary deep threat.
DeVante Parker - After getting a pay raise in the offseason, Parker was the only Patriots WR to play 100% snaps in Week 2. Unfortunately, he'll face CB Sauce Gardner this week. 35.5 yards in Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne - He's the WR24 on WR12 usage and WR2 air yards, but he only ran a route on 28-of-50 dropbacks in Week 2 with DeVante Parker as the clear No. 1 in routes.
Allen Robinson - 36.5 yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - Rams slot CB Cobie Durant is 4th-worst in PFF grade.
Travis Kelce - He wasn't himself last week but even then, Kelce was 1st overall in fantasy usage. The Chiefs project for 30 points, which is 2.5 more points than any other team.
T.J. Hockenson - Vikings are 1st in neutral pass rate and are 7th in projected points this week at home against the pitiful Chargers defense.
Mark Andrews - 24% target rate in his return.
Darren Waller - His 19% target rate is likely to climb without Saquon Barkley. The matchup against LB Fred Warner and company isn't great, but the game script is. Giants are 10.5-point dogs on TNF.
George Kittle - No Brandon Aiyuk really helps Kittle's target opportunities. 49ers are 2nd in projected points. His lack of routes (TE22 so far) remain an issue for his floor, which has cratered since the skill additions.
Evan Engram - The TE5 on TE12 usage so far, Engram has reasonable TD odds with Jacksonville projected for 26.75 points as home favorites vs Houston. Engram would benefit if red zone target Zay Jones (knee) can't play.
Jake Ferguson - TE2 overall in fantasy usage as huge positive regression candidate on offense projected for 5th-most points.
Hunter Henry - The TE2 on TE6 usage so far. As a reminder, he has the highest cap hit of any TE in the NFL. This usage won't continue to this degree, especially as favorites this week, but Henry is their most reliable pass-game target. New England is top-5 in pace and pass rate right now. Shoutout Bill O'Brien.
David Njoku - It's been very quiet with Watson struggling, but the Titans are the league's biggest pass funnel. With Amari Cooper not at full health and Nick Chubb sadly out for the year, Njoku's targets have nowhere to go but up. He's also good at the game when thrown the rock.
Dalton Kincaid - He's the TE11 in routes so far, but Kincaid has been used underneath more than we'd like. Like everyone else, the first-rounder is a TD-or-bust option. The Bills project for 25.25 points against a decent Commanders defense. This assumes Dawson Knox (full on Friday) is playing as normal.
Sam LaPorta - A near every-down player on an offense projected for a healthy 25.0 points. LaPorta ran a route on 31-of-39 dropbacks last week.
Luke Musgrave - The Packers are 30th in plays. That's been Musgrave's biggest issue, as he's the TE3 in yards per route run and has run a route on 80% of team dropbacks. Not facing the run-heavy Falcons this week is a good start.
Dallas Goedert - In theory, Goedert is a TD threat because Philly is very good. But the reality is the Eagles go run heavy in the red zone and are more efficient throwing to superstars A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert is the TE30 in usage so far.
Kyle Pitts - He's the TE18 in usage despite running a route on 37-of-42 dropbacks last week. Ridder is bad, which is why Atlanta is dead last in neutral pass rate. Pitts needs to convert on his red zone and downfield targets to break out because the reliable looks are built into the offense.
Pat Freiermuth - He's getting smoked in the ground game, and the Steelers are only projected for 20.25 points against the Raiders! If not this week without Diontae Johnson, then when? He's too good of a pass catcher to not get involved this week.
Zach Ertz - It's not working at all, but the veteran is the TE5 overall in usage. The tanking Cardinals have to try to get their young tight end more involved eventually.
Taysom Hill - He's going to get some carries with rookie Kendre Miller and Tony Jones as the leading RBs if you like that.
Durham Smythe - The TE4 in routes run and now Jaylen Waddle is likely out.
Dalton Schultz - Thanks to predictable garbage time, Schultz is actually the TE1 overall in routes run leading to TE11 usage. Also as predicted, Schultz hasn't done much with it. Eventually his usage will win out as a fine-enough TE2.
Tyler Higbee - Simply not better than Puka or Tutu, even if he's the *checks notes* TE3 overall in routes run.
Cole Kmet - It usually isn't pretty, but the Bears are 12.5-point dogs to the Chiefs so the game script will be there.
Kylen Granson - Quietly the TE10 on TE13 usage so far with the Colts playing more snaps than expected.
Hayden Hurst - Carolina is horrendous right now, but Hurst is involved with their WRs struggling. Hurst is the TE15 in usage on TE25 routes. It just won't be pretty.
Juwan Johnson - The target competition is tough, even if we like his tape individually. Derek Carr can't keep everyone happy.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - 10% targets on the Titans, who are 26th in projected points. He's the TE36 in usage so far.
Gerald Everett - TEBC in LA.
Donald Parham - TEBC in LA.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 2 are the Cowboys (vs. ARI), Patriots (vs. NYJ), Chiefs (vs. CHI), 49ers (vs. NYG), Browns (vs. TEN), Ravens (vs. IND), Bills (vs. WAS), Jaguars (vs. HOU), and Jets (vs. NE).
Jk. I'm not a virgin.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.