Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 4 Recap
Week 5 RB Rankings
Christian McCaffrey - 119.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's massive DL vs. OL mismatch with an injured QB and completely dead skill players, so the 49ers are only projected for 20.25 points on a short week vs. the best defense against fantasy RBs this year. But CMC is too big to fail with an outlier 25.9 expected half PPR points. He's essentially a fantasy WR1 with a league-high 14 targets in the 2-minute drill for example.
Jonathan Taylor - 112.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Colts are 3rd in projected points (27.0) vs. LV.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 107.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Lions are 1st in projected points (29.5) at CIN, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs. On tape, the Bengals defense gave up last week in Denver. Now they're on short rest with the season slipping away.
De'Von Achane - 109.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Dolphins are 11th in projected points (23.0) at CAR. Their LB play on film has been embarrassing, and Achane will be schemed up versus them especially without Tyreek Hill. He's the RB8 on RB10 usage with 15.8 expected half PPR points in the last 3 games.
James Cook - 100.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB6 usage, with 14.9 expected half PPR points in all 4 games. The Bills are 2nd in projected points (28.75) vs. NE, who has been fantastic stopping the run so far but hasn't faced a run-blocking team like this one.
Saquon Barkley - 102.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles are projected for the 9th-most points (24.0) vs. DEN.
His efficiency is way down behind an OL that's regressed and is battling injuries at LG and RT. Barkley's yet to have a 20+ yard play. That'll change very soon. He's the RB14 on RB4 usage. Buy low.
Omarion Hampton - 95.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chargers OL will be highly problematic without LT Joe Alt, but that's a problem for another day. The Chargers are 5th in projected points (25.75) vs. WAS, and Hampton has the speed to make Bobby Wagner look extremely slow once again in space.
He's the RB13 on RB17 usage this month, but that's at RB1 on RB9 usage over the past two weeks without Najee Harris.
Javonte Williams - 91.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 6th in projected points (25.0) at NYJ, who hasn't stopped even bad offenses and won't have LB1 Quincy Williams and others up front. Dak Prescott and the new run-game coordinator are balling, even without C Cooper Beebe and 1st-round RG Tyler Booker. Williams had a season-high 20.4 expected half PPR points in last week's overtime tie with Miles Sanders (ankle) banged up.
Cam Skattebo - 89.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Giants are projected for the 5th-fewest points (19.5) at NO, but the entire offense was through Jaxson Dart and Skattebo on the ground. Viewed as a meme, Skattebo has legit leg drive, decision making, and short-area burst as s rusher and usually catches everything. He had a season-high 22.4 expected half PPR points as the goal line and receiving down back without Tyrone Tracey. His 16.9 expected half PPR points over the last 3 games would make him the RB6. He'll be one of the very best rookie picks this year. Let's go.
Kyren Williams - 81.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Rams are 4th in projected points (26.25) vs. SF, who don't have EDGE1 Nick Bosa. There is enough room for both RBs as 6-point home favorites, but Kyren is losing real work to Blake Corum. Last week, Kyren had a season-low 10.4 expected half PPR points, while Corum had a season-high 8.5 expected half PPR points. Both have looked solid in this semi series-by-series rotation.
Breece Hall - 96.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jets RB2 Braelon Allen (knee) is headed for IR, so it'll be Hall and pass-game back Isiah Davis moving forward. Hall was playing through some injury last week, but this is his best outlook of the year if he's fully himself. The Jets are projected for a healthy 22.5 points while hosting the Cowboys, who can't stop anyone. That'll be their highest team total of the year most likely. Hall had 13.7 expected half PPR points last week (RB12 usage).
Ashton Jeanty - 83.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB12 on RB18 usage, saving his season-long stat sheet with one highlight 64-yard rushing score against the Bears last week. Jeanty only ran a route on 13-of-23 dropbacks last week but luckily scored twice on his two targets. That's hard to replicate moving forward. More importantly, LT Kolton Miller (ankle) was placed on injured reserve. Almost all of Jeanty's 10+ yard carries have been directly behind Miller because the rest of the OL is so dreadful. This is a big loss.
The Colts have a star DT and former 1st-round edge rushers, making this a major DL vs. OL mismatch. Jeanty has the skills to put the team on his back at least. The Raiders are projected for 20.5 points.
Quinshon Judkins - 86.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Browns, as usual, are last in projected points (16.5) in another damn country against the damn Vikings. Cleveland has backups on the OL and Dillon Gabriel is going to debut at QB. It's a horrific situation, and still, we should have confidence in Judkins. He's had 15.5 and 17.5 expected half PPR points in his two games with normal practices, which is about RB6 usage. Judkins continues to impress on tape with great vision, balance, and short-area burst.
David Montgomery
He's the RB20 on RB28 usage with a difficult opening schedule. This week, the Lions are 1st in projected points (29.5) at CIN, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs. On tape, the Bengals defense gave up last week in Denver. Now they're on short rest with the season slipping away.
Kenneth Walker - 68.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Seahawks are 9th in projected points (24.0) vs. TB, who has been an outlier elite rushing defense for as long as HC Todd Bowles has had NT Vita Vea. Seattle's OL isn't good, but it's better than it was last year with 1st-round LG Grey Zabel and RT Abe Lucas in the lineup.
Walker is the RB18 on RB25 usage this year, adding 12.4 expected half PPR points last week even with Zach Charbonnet stealing touches. Last week, Walker out-touched Charbs, 21-14.
Travis Etienne - 72.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jaguars have a big Monday Night Football test with the Chiefs.
He's the RB10 on RB19 usage this year. In Week 4, the Jaguars had the same split with Etienne playing a lot more than Bhayshul Tuten with LeQuint Allen in a pass protection role. But Etienne continues to rip off explosives. He looks healthy, fast, and more decisive in a better rushing scheme. Credit to HC Liam Coen, but Etienne has two 1,400-yard seasons in the NFL and is on pace for 1,810 total yards on a career-best 6.0 yards per touch and career-high 16.3 carries per game.
Rachaad White - 75.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Seahawks have a great defense but are at least allowing the most receptions to RBs (29).
Bucky Irving was on crutches and in a walking boot on Wednesday after getting multiple opinions on his ankle/foot. If he's out, then it'll be Rachaad White. From 2023 to the first 5 games of 2024 before Bucky Irving had his first career start, White averaged 85 total yards on 19 opportunities. In Week 14 of last year, Irving left early and White had 17 carries, 90 yards, 1 rushing score, 2 receptions, 19 receiving yards, and 1 receiving score. He'd be a must-start without him.
Chuba Hubbard - 74.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Panthers have been without C Austin Corbet and dominant run-blocking RG Robert Hunt for the past 2 weeks. Hubbard has 8.5 half PPR points on 10.8 expected half PPR points per game over that span, a dip down from 2024 and the start of 2025. Carolina has been passing more in neutral situations, too. Last week, Rico Dowdle mixed in early, too. It's harder to give him the benefit of the doubt right now, but this is his last call. The Panthers are projected for a rock-solid 21.5 points against the invisible Dolphins defense at home. Hopefully he plays well and then we're able to trade him away. Hubbard is the RB21 on RB22 usage through September.
Derrick Henry - 77.5 rushing yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB16 on RB29 usage, with his involvement heavily tied to game script. Henry is also getting hit behind the line of scrimmage way more than last year. He's ripping big plays at the same rate, but the success rate is way down (perhaps because FB Patrick Ricard and TE2 Isaiah Likely have been hurt). I don't see that getting much better now. The Ravens, without Lamar Jackson and maybe LT Ronnie Stanley, are 2-point home dogs to the Texans. This is the worst situation he's been in while wearing a purple uniform. Baltimore is projected for just 19.0 points (3rd-fewest) vs. HOU. They have freak shows across the defensive line.
Jordan Mason - 81.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings are without 1st-round LG Donovan Jackson (wrist), C Ryan Kelly (concussion), and RT Brian O'Neill (knee). This is a bad OL with QB's who stink under pressure. A team-level reset is warranted with the Vikings projected for the 6th-fewest points (20.0) vs. CLE. They have this dude named Myles Garrett if you haven't heard. It's hard to hold Derrick Henry (2.3 half PPR points), Josh Jacobs (9.9), Jahmyr Gibbs (16.7), and David Montgomery (1.2) down like what they've done.
Without Aaron Jones, Mason has had 12.5 and 12.2 expected half PPR points (RB19 usage). He hasn't been a full bellcow because (my boy from preseason film evaluation) Zavier Scott is the pass-game complement.
Alvin Kamara - 78.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Giants are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs, but I question who is blocking DT Dexter Lawrence here. The Saints are without C Cesar Ruiz (IR), and Kamara's efficiency was already down year-over-year. He's just the RB25 on RB14 usage, and last week was a season-high 8.2 expected half PPR points for Kendre Miller, who has looked solid with a new coaching staff. Kamara is being squeezed short term and might be dust if he's not traded before the deadline.
J.K. Dobbins
The Broncos are projected for the 5th-fewest points (19.5) at PHI.
He's the RB15 on RB26 usage this month. Last game, Denver mixed in rookie R.J. Harvey in a more series-by-series rotation with J.K. Dobbins instead of segmenting out their roles. It's still a lot more Harvey in neutral situations, but both have ran well.
Woody Marks
The Ravens are without DT Madubuike, EDGE Van Noy, LB Smith, SCB Humphrey, CB Wiggins, and others. They've allowed the most fantasy points to RBs this year (30.8 per game).
The 4th-round rookie is coming off a season-high 14.2 expected half PPR points, and he passed the eye test, too. DeMeco Ryans said they're looking for ways to get him more involved, which makes sense because he's out-playing Nick Chubb on the ground in addition to his pass-game role. The Texans still have major OL and play-calling issues, but Marks is ascending without much in his way.
Tony Pollard - 83.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Titans could call up Tyjae Spears (ankle) from IR. We'll learn more later on, but Pollard can't afford to lose any snaps in this horrific offense, one without RT J.C. Latham right now. Pollard is the RB27 on RB23 usage without him. Tennessee is projected for the 2nd-fewest points (16.75) in Arizona.
Chase Brown
The Browns are projected for the 3rd-fewest points (19.0) vs. DET, who have been a pass funnel with stars on the defensive line. In terrible matchups like this one without Joe Burrow, Brown has 11.0 and 8.5 expected half PPR points (RB29 usage) and he's been the least efficient back in my model this entire season.
Michael Carter - 70.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cardinals are 7th in projected points (24.75) vs. TEN, who have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs without DT T'Vondre Sweat.
Trey Benson (knee) left in the 4th quarter last week and his status is up in the air. If he's in, Benson is a low-end RB2. This obviously assumes he's out. That leaves Carter and Emari Demercado as the top options. Demercado closed the game last week, but he's only been a pass-game option for the Cardinals, while Carter has been sparingly used as a mini bellcow. Carter had 21 touches in Week 18 last year when James Conner, Benson, and Demercado were out. In the 2nd quarter of last week, Carter had a full drive to himself. Carter is the favorite for early-down carries in a committee approach, and practice reports indicate it's Carter first in drills followed by Demercado. The original AZ Central report also mentioned Carter in the early-down role when they broke the news of Benson's injury first.
Blake Corum - 36.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Rams are 4th in projected points (26.25) vs. SF, who don't have EDGE1 Nick Bosa. There is enough room for both RBs as 6-point home favorites. Corum is coming off a season-high 8.5 expected half PPR points, and Corum wasn't just playing in garbage time. He was involved early and often, ultimately splitting opportunities 17-to-13 in the McVay-promised split.
Zach Charbonnet
The Seahawks are 9th in projected points (24.0) vs. TB, who has been an outlier elite rushing defense for as long as HC Todd Bowles has had NT Vita Vea. Seattle's OL isn't good, but it's better than it was last year with 1st-round LG Grey Zabel and RT Abe Lucas in the lineup.
He's the RB38 on RB24 usage as a spreadsheet positive regression candidate, but it's worth noting Walker out-touched Charbs, 21-14, last week.
TreVeyon Henderson - 44.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Patriots are experimenting with all three (3) backs struggling in different ways. Last week, everyone saw touches in both halves with no rhyme or reason. Henderson is only the RB37 on RB37 usage throughout the year, showing some explosiveness but not down-to-down consistency. There has only been one instance of a New England RB reaching double-digit expected half PPR points (Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2).
Rhamondre Stevenson - 49.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Patriots are experimenting with all three (3) backs struggling in different ways. Last week, everyone saw touches in both halves with no rhyme or reason. Henderson is only the RB37 on RB37 usage throughout the year, showing some explosiveness but not down-to-down consistency. There has only been one instance of a New England RB reaching double-digit expected half PPR points (Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2).
Isiah Pacheco - 41.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chiefs are projected for the 8th-most points (24.75) at JAX. The Jaguars have been extremely good on defense with LB Devin Lloyd and others stepping up with a new DC, but stud run-stuffing EDGE2 Travon Walker (wrist) is unlikely to play now.
He's the RB43 on RB34 usage, coming off a season-high 9.7 expected half PPR points thanks to a designed receiving red zone score. Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and 7th-round rookie Brashard Smith all had touches in both halves last week.
Kareem Hunt - 37.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chiefs are projected for the 8th-most points (24.75) at JAX. The Jaguars have been extremely good on defense with LB Devin Lloyd and others stepping up with a new DC, but stud run-stuffing EDGE2 Travon Walker (wrist) is unlikely to play now.
He's the RB45 on RB36 usage, also coming off a season-high 9.9 expected half PPR points thanks to a bunch of game-sealing carries in the 2nd-half of a blowout win.
Emari Demercado
See Michael Carter.
RJ Harvey
The Broncos are projected for the 5th-fewest points (19.5) at PHI.
He's the RB35 on RB38 usage this month. The 2nd-round rookie had a season-high 15.3 expected half PPR points in a blowout win, featuring him in the red area a couple times. He's in a series-by-series rotation to develop his entire skill set, rather than giving him a particular role. That's good for Harvey, who isn't bouncing everything outside right now. Dobbins has been even more efficient this year, however, so we're not at a coup yet.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 40.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Commanders are 12th in projected points (22.75) at LAC, but this is a full-blown committee with 3 RBs, Deebo Samuel, and a dual-threat QB mixing in. Maybe Bill looks the best on film, but Chris Rodriguez has made plays and started both games without Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNicols is trusted on pass downs and had an elite run himself. Projecting a change right now is largely wish casting. Croskey-Merritt is the RB33 on RB43 usage with under 8.7 expected half PPR points in every game.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Kendre Miller
He's coming off a season-high 8.2 expected half PPR points, and there was nothing garbage time about it.
Bhayshul Tuten
He's playing a bit more than before, but nothing has really changed. He's just the RB41 on RB52 usage. Etienne has been a better rusher, and Tuten's receiving score was actually a screen where he ran the wrong way and made the most of it.
Sean Tucker
Justice Hill
Nick Chubb
It's over.
Week 5 WR Rankings
Puka Nacua - 97.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's on pace for an NFL-record 178 receptions. I don't know how teams stop it. Nacua's last 3 games against the 49ers: 7-97-0, 6-41-1, and wait for it ... 15-147-0.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 72.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR2 on WR7 usage, and the Lions are projected for the most points this week.
Nico Collins - 73.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR17 usage, but dating back to 2024, he's been top-10 in both marks. Collins catches the Ravens at the perfect time with SCB Marlon Humphrey and CB1 Nate Wiggins injured, in addition to multiple starters in the box. This is an eruption spot.
Justin Jefferson - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR19 on WR19 usage, but Carson Wentz has been more aggressive than J.J. McCarthy even if he's struggling versus pressure. Jefferson will face CB1 Denzel Ward while Wentz is harassed by Myles Garrett.
George Pickens - 71.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In two games without CeeDee Lamb, Pickens has 16.4 and 16.6 expected half PPR points, which would make him the WR2 overall in usage. He's been a stud at the catch point and has caught some in-breaking routes now that he has a quarterback who wants to throw over the middle. CB Sauce Gardner is a great man coverage corner, but the Jets as a whole are bad on defense and Gardner isn't quite as good as his hype from a few seasons ago.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 81.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR8 on WR14 usage, and the Seahawks are projected for 24.0 points at home against a pass-funnel Bucs defense. I've been impressed with the corner play from Tampa Bay, but their entire team is essentially on the injury report right now, including some corners. We'll know more later.
Garrett Wilson - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR7 on WR16 usage this year and has played better on tape than last year. Wilson really should've had a second TD last week. As we've seen, the Justin Fields experience has no floor, but the Cowboys haven't stopped anyone this year, especially at X receiver. Romeo Doubs (26.8 half PPR), Rome Odunze (13.7), and Malik Nabers (33.2) have had ceiling games, in addition to Wan'Dale Robinson, D.J. Moore, and Luther Burden.
Davante Adams - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR15 on WR4 usage this year, and the Rams are 4th in projected points at home against a Nick Bosa-less 49ers team. If any team wants to sell out versus Puka, then Adams is going to ball out. It's largely just a two-man pass game and this is their combined usage:
Ja'Marr Chase - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
I'm buying the dip here after ranking him lower last week due to a horrific matchup. The Bengals won't face Brian Flores' Vikings and Patrick Surtain's Bengals every week. This is a far easier matchup for Chase, against a man-heavy defense without outside CBs to keep pace. The Lions also stop the run well, so there should be even more pass attempts than before. Only the Steelers have been lit up more deep and over the middle this year.
Xavier Worthy - 66.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He didn't play full snaps, but Worthy was heavily involved with a 31% targets per route in addition to his rushing work. His debut featured 12.1 expected half PPR points, which is exactly his usage from last December until now when he's been the WR10 overall. The Chiefs have a healthy 24.75-point team total against an opportunistic Jaguars defense that is suddenly missing stud EDGE Travon Walker.
Emeka Egbuka - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR20 usage this season but had a season-high 13.5 expected half PPR points without Mike Evans last week. Egbuka is a star receiver on film, while Chris Godwin is rusty and not as explosive as his prime. Playing in Seattle is among the most difficult spots in terms of matchup (2nd-best vs. fantasy WRs), but everything else about this is pretty clean.
Deebo Samuel
He's the WR12 on WR30 usage, but in the two Jayden Daniels games, Samuel's usage jumps up to WR12, too. Terry McLaurin isn't expected back yet, and Samuel has made plays at all levels of the field, plus in the ground game. The Chargers have the speed over the middle to match up well with him and have been the 5th-best against fantasy WRs, but Washington is putting everything into Deebo right now.
Quentin Johnston - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR4 on WR8 usage, with the coaching staff asking him to run the routes he's actually good at this year. Johnston is making more plays in the most pass-heavy offense, and he's not only leading the Chargers in target share (24%), but his targets are coming in the more valuable parts of the field (downfield and in the red zone). His film points to a 3rd-year breakout with better hands, and the environment is elite with Justin Herbert and a bunch of pass attempts. The Commanders defense is slow up the middle, weak at CB1 with Marshon Lattimore, and inexperienced at CB2 with Trey Amos. It's a good spot for him, as Tre Tucker in a vertical role posted 8-145-3 on them before.
Tetairoa McMillan - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Some off-target passes and near catches have hurt McMillan's production, but he's popped against man coverage in many ways on tape. The spreadsheets now suggest he's a big buy low. He's the WR34 on WR13 usage so far, and this is a matchup to take advantage of that. The Dolphins have the worst secondary in the NFL, and the Panthers are at home with a 21.5-point team total. They've quietly been 3rd in neutral pass rate and might not have RB Chuba Hubbard this week.
Michael Pittman - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's back, and when he hasn't been dealing with injury, Pittman has been a sure-fire starter in fantasy for a long time. This offense is ideal for him, and Daniel Jones is elevating it. Pittman is the WR17 on WR29 usage, and now the Colts are projected for the 3rd-most points of the week at home against the Raiders. They've struggled against outside WRs so far, allowing the 4th-most points to fantasy WRs, including 14.9 to Rome Odunze, 14.4 to Quentin Johnston, and 13.3 to Kayshon Boutte.
Brian Thomas - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Aside from simply dropping more passes than ever, the other big difference from last year to now is a lack of screen usage. BTJ had 18 screen receptions last year and didn't catch his lone screen target this year, while HC Liam Coen has called screens to RBs and Travis Hunter instead. Thomas' feel for zone was lackluster last year, so he'll need his signature huge plays against man coverage to live up to his hype. The Chiefs are thin in the secondary aside from CB1 Trent McDuffie. He'll see some of him on the perimeter.
Marvin Harrison - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
There are some improvements to his sophomore tape, but many of the same inconsistency and speed-based issues still exist. That may prevent him from a total ceiling, but the Cardinals run game is cooked, so they may pass more than usual to make up that difference. Harrison is the WR28 on WR27 usage this season with a season-high 13.7 expected half PPR point outing last week with James Conner sidelined. The Cardinals 25-point team total at home against the Titans is a spot to cash in. They've been hit hard by outside receivers this year; Courtland Sutton (15.1 half PPR), Davante Adams (19.6), Michael Pittman (16.3), and Nico Collins (9.9).
Jaylen Waddle - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
On snaps without Tyreek Hill (dislocated knee), Waddle had a team-high 31% targets per route. They'll scheme up Waddle a time or two more per game, and he'll have the chance on a couple more first-read targets, too. This is a solid matchup against the Panthers with a 23.0-point team total.
Chris Olave - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's not going to ever match his usage, but Olave is the WR33 on WR5 usage this year while running far more underneath routes than ever before. The Giants' bursty edge rush trio will force New Orleans into even more underneath targets, and Olave's chemistry with Spencer Rattler has been evident. A higher-than-normal 22.25-point team total plays into the optimism.
Keenan Allen - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low for his usage (7.5 expected half PPR points), but this season, Allen is the WR16 on WR11 usage as Justin Herbert's reliable zone beater in tight situations. The offense may lean into more underneath throws without LT Joe Alt rather than throwing deep to Quentin Johnston like before. He moves across the formation, but Allen should see some of rookie CB Trey Amos. Drake London in a similar spot just put up 8-110-1 last week.
Ladd McConkey - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
What has changed from late last year? A couple of notes. First, McConkey is simply dropping some passes and having some bad luck. That's never been a problem, so hopefully that improves. Second, McConkey is playing slightly more outside but is also running more underneath routes (10.8 aDOT vs. 8.9 aDOT) and hasn't had a signature yards after catch moment. Those will pop up as the season progresses because he's fast as hell. Third, McConkey is just facing more target competition from Keenan Allen in zone coverage and Quentin Johnston in the intermediate parts of the field. That's the part that has the least chance of changing. McConkey won't get screens or anything manufactured, so he just needs to eat as an underneath YAC player. He'll see fellow 2024 2nd-rounder Mike Sainristill this week.
Jakobi Meyers - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR35 on WR21 usage this year. The Raiders are stuck and now without LT Kolton Miller, but the Colts' CB2 Xavien Howard retired in the middle of the season because he was being cooked. What does that say about whoever his backup is? Meyers is in a good matchup as 7-point dogs in a dome matchup against the 3rd-worst fantasy WR defense.
Courtland Sutton - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos go from 5th-highest team total last week to 5th-lowest team total this week (19.5 points) while traveling to Philly on shorter rest. Sutton will face emerging star CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. This is a bad spot, but he's also more stable than most in a bankable X-receiver role on posts and crossing routes and in jump ball situations. He's the WR14 on WR34 usage this year.
Stefon Diggs - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In the first 3 quarters last week, Diggs ran a route on 90% of dropbacks, leading to a season-high 12.1 expected half PPR points. He had a couple of downfield man-coverage wins, and the Patriots have been a high success rate team with OC Josh McDaniels creating some easy outlets. Diggs looked solid on film, and New England is 8.5-point dogs. There should be pass attempts up for grabs. I don't think the Bills defense is very good right now.
Jameson Williams - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
His average depth of target has grown to an unsustainable 21.4 this year, by far the highest of the position. Williams will be even more boom-bust if that holds or if the Lions can't repeat the 33.0-point average from last year. The Lions are projected for 29.5 points here against the Bengals, so this is a spot to roll the dice. Since December last year, he's the WR29.
DeVonta Smith - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos are weakest at SCB and CB2, where Smith will line up for most of the game, while A.J. Brown faces Surtain. Smith is still only the WR46 on WR56 usage on the season, however, and the Eagles are facing more pass protection issues with an injured OL and downgrade at OC. Since last December including the NFL Playoffs and the beginning of this year, Smith is the WR28 vs. AJB at WR39.
A.J. Brown - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Well, he's the WR50 on WR38 usage. Brown hasn't had his signature YAC moments this year, while running fewer runaway routes and go balls, and now will face All Pro CB1 Pat Surtain this week. The Broncos were rotating a safety down on Ja'Marr Chase in key situations last week, and the Eagles' 24.0-point team total is a tad lower than normal.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In a small sample without Malik Nabers, Robinson had a 31% targets per route, but Nabers' underneath role will be partially absorbed by Robinson. Jaxson Dart doesn't seem like he's ready for the full NFL dropback game, so some screens and RPOs could trickle his way. An easy matchup with the Saints is on deck to keep his hot start going. He's the WR31 on WR32 usage (thanks to those Cowboys).
Rashid Shaheed - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The New Orleans PPR Scam hasn't hit the box score for Shaheed yet, but he's had at least 8.7 expected half PPR points in all 4 games this year and sits as the WR39 on WR33 usage. He's capable of big plays, too, and this will be one of his best shots at getting one. The Saints' 22.25-point team total at home against the Giants might be their highest of the year, especially with Spencer Rattler competing.
Jerry Jeudy - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman was placed on IR, and without him last week, Jeudy had a season-high 12.6 expected half PPR points. The Browns QB change from Joe Flacco to Dillon Gabriel could go either way, but Gabriel's ceiling is higher and he profiles as someone who'll get the ball out quickly and has a better shot at extending plays behind a worrisome OL. Jeudy is the WR55 on WR31 usage this year but is the WR26 in fantasy points per game since the beginning of last December.
Tee Higgins - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is a far easier matchup than the last two weeks without Joe Burrow, but Higgins' numbers without him are way down. He's only had a 16% targets per route without Burrow since 2023 compared to 23% with him. Jake Browning isn't as accurate, and he's not as willing to throw the ball up. That hurts Higgins more than Ja'Marr Chase.
Chris Godwin - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In his return from a dislocated ankle, Godwin showed rust on tape and wasn't quite as quick as usual, which is why he was in more contested situations than usual. He did have 14.8 expected half PPR points, however, and wasn't clearly limping or anything crazy. The odds he returns to himself this year are low, but with Mike Evans out, this is his time to get into the mix. A date with Devon Witherspoon in the slot is a tough challenge here, with Tampa Bay only projected for 20.5 points on the road.
Zay Flowers
The Ravens project for just 19.5 points (5th-fewest) this week without Lamar Jackson. On top of that, Flowers will see All Pro CB1 Derek Stingley when he's split out wide. He's been the WR40 since the beginning of last December over a 9-game sample.
Khalil Shakir - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's only at 17% and the WR58 in usage this season, but Shakir is a good player in an elite offense. He'll dodge CB1 Christian Gonzalez while running his routes in the slot this week.
Jordan Addison - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
A coverage bust explosive and a wild game script allowed Addison to light up the box score, but his 17% target share in a more limited Vikings offense in 2025 won't be nearly as fun as his debut moving forward. Minnesota is down 3 key starters on the OL, and Carson Wentz stinks versus pressure. Myles Garrett is licking his lips.
Marquise Brown - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
His routes dropped to 59% last week with Xavier Worthy in the lineup and Tyquan Thornton playing well, but Brown is still live for an explosive play with Patrick Mahomes playing extremely will. This team is getting it's swagger back. Owhhhh. Brown is the WR32 on WR22 usage this season, with most of that hitting in Week 1.
Tre Tucker - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is a volatile role as the primary deep threat for a below-average offense, but Geno Smith can get hot and Tucker is still very fast. He's the WR43 in usage, and this is a good spot for him. The Raiders are 7-point dogs to a Colts defense that had their outside CB retire in the middle of the week after getting roasted in coverage all year long. He still ran a route on 100% of dropbacks last week and Tucker even caught a screen target.
Calvin Ridley - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
There's not a data point or anything on film that puts him in this range, unless we go back to the previous season. It could only get better. Right? Right??? Ridley was a DNP on Wednesday with knee and elbow injuries.
Keon Coleman - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's completely TD-or-bust, while playing X receiver in a balanced offense. Coleman is only averaging 5.7 half PPR points over his last 11 games and now gets CB1 Christian Gonzalez, who can deal with Coleman's size in isolation.
Troy Franklin - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Demarcus Robinson - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
D-Rob is more Jauan Jennings, while Kendrick Bourne is more of a traditional slot/flanker. Robinson will run the digs, posts, and outs from the outside, while Bourne is put in motion and works underneath. Robinson was signed this offseason and received two years of guaranteed money, so his commitment from the team is more serious. It might've been completely fluky, but Robinson also has run hot in the red area and gets a revenge game boost. Their per-route numbers are nearly identical over the past three years.
Kendrick Bourne - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
D-Rob is more Jauan Jennings, while Kendrick Bourne is more of a traditional slot/flanker. Robinson will run the digs, posts, and outs from the outside, while Bourne is put in motion and works underneath. Robinson was signed this offseason and received two years of guaranteed money, so his commitment from the team is more serious. It might've been completely fluky, but Robinson also has run hot in the red area and gets a revenge game boost. Their per-route numbers are nearly identical over the past three years. Bourne had 3 of the worst drops you'll see last week.
Elic Ayomanor
Travis Hunter
Christian Kirk - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Josh Downs
Malik Washington - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jalen Tolbert - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Marvin Mims Jr.
Isaiah Bond - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
KaVontae Turpin
Sterling Shepard
Tyquan Thornton - 15.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer
Rashod Bateman
Tory Horton
Week 5 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The underlying metrics are elite, so we're just waiting for more dropbacks from the Cardinals. He's had 14.8 and 13.9 expected half PPR points without James Conner over the last two games, and the defense is missing some key pieces. This is a high-ceiling opportunity at home, while projected for 24.75 points vs. TEN.
Jake Ferguson - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jets have been terrible on defense, and LB1 Quincy Williams is on IR while Sauce Gardner will be busy with George Pickens. This is a fantastic matchup for Ferg Daddy, who was motioned out for a 1-on-1 red zone touchdown last week. He's the TE3 on TE1 usage this year with a wild 17.8 and 9.6 expected half PPR points in games without CeeDee Lamb.
Tyler Warren - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He had a season-high 14.1 expected half PPR points last week with the Colts finally trailing, and he topped off his outing with a goal-line rushing TD while lined up at FB. Warren is the TE6 on TE3 usage so far, and the Colts are 3rd in projected points at 27.0 versus the Raiders.
Brock Bowers - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
PCL injuries take about a month before getting back to full speed, and we're almost there. He moved a bit better on tape last week after a week of full practices. Bowers is a solid buy low candidate now that the bottom is in, but the Raiders are more aggressive in their average depth of target with Geno Smith, so the crazy-high volume path is getting harder to imagine, especially as a non-full-time player. We'll see if TE2 Michael Mayer (concussion) suits up versus Indy. Bowers is the TE12 on TE6 usage so far.
Travis Kelce - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE13 on TE16 usage, as his target share has dropped to just 16%. Kelce is actually winning his 1-on-1 matchups with better-than-before speed, but those drops near the red area have been brutal. The Chiefs looked much better last week, so there's more ceiling than you'd expect here with a 24.75-point team total.
Hunter Henry - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last week was a season-low 4.3 expected half PPR points, but Henry showed some YAC on a broken play for a long score. This is a functional offense that's largely-built around TEs. Henry is the TE2 on TE4 usage this year.
Darren Waller - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In his debut, Waller had two scores on 9.3 expected half PPR points. It looked real nice on film, too. Before scoring twice, Waller had a man-coverage in-breaking win on 3rd-and-5 after being cheat-motioned into the play. His high-point score was against Sauce Gardner from the get-go, and his second score was a runaway route where he showed some nice acceleration. The Dolphins will increase his routes and targets immediately, and he'll be a major player without Tyreek Hill. Treat him seriously while he's healthy. The Panthers LB play is a total disaster right now.
Juwan Johnson
He's coming off a season-low 3.2 expected half PPR points but is still the TE8 on TE5 usage as September's Scam of the Month. Hopefully this isn't short lived with Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill beginning to practice, but they probably won't be out here this week. The Saints are projected for 21.5 points at home against a somewhat struggling Giants defense. That might be their highest team total of the year.
Sam LaPorta - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE16 on TE11 usage and has been below 6.5 expected half PPR points in 3-straight games after lighting it up in Week 1 in very-rare extreme negative game script. The Lions are No. 31 in neutral pass rate, so LaPorta's volume numbers will not be TE1 worthy. Instead, he'll need explosives and scores. That's possible on a Lions offense projected for the most points this week (29.5) at CIN.
Dallas Goedert
On a per-game basis, Goedert is the TE1 on TE14 usage while scoring an "outlier" rate of touchdowns. In a very good offense, that's not crazy to see, especially when these are designed targets. Both scores last week were of the flick variety in the low red zone. This won't fully last, however, if his 14% targets per route continues. We can barely get the ball to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith right now. In terms of matchup, Goedert's is the easiest of the week. Broncos CB1 Pat Surtain will mostly see AJB, while Smitty will see Riley Moss. Denver's LB and SS spots are their relative weaknesses.
Dalton Kincaid - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE4 on TE13 usage, while running hot with scores. That'll happen in the highest-scoring offense, however, and Kincaid has been great on his opportunities even while hovering at 65% routes.
Zach Ertz - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jayden Daniels is likely returning. Ertz's expected half PPR points is at 8.9 per game with Daniels versus 5.1 without him. If Terry McLaurin can't go, then targets are limited to just a few players in an offense projected for 22.75 points. He will see All Pro candidates LB Daiyan Henley and SS Derwin James in coverage, however.
Brenton Strange - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE15 on TE15 usage on an average offense.
Mason Taylor - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The 2nd-round rookie has had his usage go up in 4-straight weeks. That meant a season-high 7.8 expected half PPR points on 8 targets last week after the coaching staff promised him more involvement. Taylor was a reliable catcher and mover as a prospect, and the Jets can use the emergence of a second option behind Garrett Wilson. He's capable of being just that. The Jets' 22.5-point team total might be their highest of the year. The Cowboys LBs can't guard anyone.
Harold Fannin Jr. - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE18 on TE8 usage but his fantasy points have dropped in 4-straight weeks. Fannin's underlying metrics haven't changed, and he's still popping as a receiver on tape. He just beat stud DB Brian Branch across the middle for example (just don't watch him block Aidan Hutchinson in the run game). The pivot to Dillon Gabriel might be a good thing as a point-and-shoot player who will get the ball out quickly, but Fannin's fantasy appeal is largely tied to the Browns eventually trading David Njoku. We typically project 10 of the last 3 NFL trades, however.
Tommy Tremble - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Without Ja'Tavion Sanders last week, Tremble popped up for easily a season-high 12.9 expected half PPR points while the Panthers were in very-clear negative game script once again. We'll see about Sanders this week, but if he can't go, this is a great spot vs. Miami.
Jake Tonges - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's unclear if Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings will play. George Kittle remains out, and without him, Tonges is the TE15 on TE23 usage.
T.J. Hockenson - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
14.5% targets per route isn't going to cut it with the Vikings offense regressing from last year and with Jordan Addison back in the mix. Hockenson was asked to chip the edge to support his backup RT last week, too, and now Myles Garrett is around. A date with stud rookie LB Carson Schwesinger awaits out in the route. Not fun.
Mark Andrews
The Ravens are projected for 19.5 points, and Isiah Likely is back. Sell.
Dalton Schultz - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE22 on TE20 usage and is killing me in the blocking department on film. This is a fine spot pending Ravens' injuries. SCB Marlon Humphrey and LB Roquan Smith both left last week, but that might mean more All Pro S Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage.
Evan Engram - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It hasn't been pretty. I can't believe he stepped out of bounds last week, not to mention his drop. Engram is no joker in this offense. Instead, he's an underneath threat and part-timer. The Broncos only project for 19.5 points in Philly. That's All Pro LB Zach Baun, 1st-round LB Jihaad Campbell, and SCB Cooper DeJean.
David Njoku - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE26 on TE23 usage and is coming off a season-low 4.1 expected half PPR points. Harold Fannin is stealing his underneath looks and simply looks better after the catch.
Theo Johnson - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Oronde Gadsden
AJ Barner - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 5 QB Rankings
Josh Allen
The Bills are 2nd in projected points (29.0) vs. NE.
Justin Fields
The Jets are 13th in projected points (22.5) vs. DAL.
Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs are 7th in projected points (24.75) at JAX, who are without EDGE2 Travon Walker. Offenses facing the Jaguars have the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate, and the Chiefs can't run the ball. It'll be a ton of dropbacks for Mahomes once again.
Justin Herbert
The Chargers are 5th in projected points (25.75) vs. WAS, even though they won't have LT Joe Alt. It's a credit to how well Herbert is playing with a flushed-out receiver group, and a discredit to how bad the Commanders defense is. It's extremely slow up the middle, and CB Marshon Lattimore isn't the same player.
Daniel Jones
The Colts are 3rd in projected points (27.25) vs. LV.
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles are 9th in projected points (24.0) vs. DEN.
Jayden Daniels
The Dolphins are 12th in projected points (22.75) at LAC.
Jared Goff
The Lions are 1st in projected points (29.5) at CIN.
Kyler Murray
The Cardinals are 8th in projected points (24.5) vs. TEN.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys are 6th in projected points (25.0) at NYJ.
Matthew Stafford - 17.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Rams are 4th in projected points (26.5) vs. SF.
Stafford is balling right now. There are underneath throws available all game long, and then Stafford is completing a league-high percentage of his downfield pass attempts with two monsters at receiver.
Drake Maye
The Patriots are 15th in projected points (21.5) at BUF.
Baker Mayfield
The Bucs are 19th in projected points (20.5) at SEA. This will be a challenge without his RG and RT, as the Seahawks are relentless with their pass-rush depth.
Sam Darnold
The Seahawks are 9th in projected points (24.0) vs. TB.
Bryce Young
The Panthers are 15th in projected points (21.5) vs. MIA, and they've been 3rd in neutral pass rate. Young adds fantasy points as a scrambler, and the Dolphins give up tons of points in general. Even without his starting C and RG, this is a spot for Young to make up ground. If not here, when?
Jaxson Dart
The Giants are 25th in projected points (19.5) at NO.
Bo Nix
The Broncos are 22nd in projected points (19.5) at PHI.
Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins are 11th in projected points (23.0) at CAR.
C.J. Stroud
The Texans are 18th in projected points (21.0) at BAL.
Trevor Lawrence
The Jaguars are 14th in projected points (21.75) vs. KC.
Geno Smith
The Raiders are 20th in projected points (20.25) at IND, and they won't have their best OL starter in LT Kolton Miller. It's a completely broken offensive line, and Smith has been forcing throws in a bad environment.
Mac Jones - 16.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The 49ers are 21st in projected points (20.0) at LAR.
Spencer Rattler
The Saints are 15th in projected points (21.5) vs. NYG.
Jake Browning
The Bengals are 26th in projected points (19.0) vs. DET.
Carson Wentz
The Vikings are 22nd in projected points (19.5) at CLE.
Cam Ward
The Titans are 27th in projected points (17.0) at ARI.
Cooper Rush
The Ravens are 22nd in projected points (19.5) vs. HOU.
Dillon Gabriel
The Browns are 28th in projected points (16.5) vs. MIN.
Week 5 DEF
The best defenses are the Browns, Texans, Lions, and Vikings with honorable mentions to the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Colts, Chargers, and Saints.