Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.
We know the offense is great, so I won't waste time. The only note I must include: offenses facing the Chiefs have the 2nd-highest pass rate in neutral situations, leading to being 26th against fantasy QBs.
We'll monitor the Bills' defensive injuries, but this is an obvious shootout either way. Expect the Bills to play a ton of zone coverage (2nd highest rate) and two-high shell coverage (3rd highest). The Chiefs are used to that though.
The Cardinals have only completed 26% of their passes with 15+ air yards, the lowest in the NFL. That'll rebound, especially when their WRs are at full health. The Seahawks being dead last in passing EPA is a good week to cash these positive regression tickets. Their 26.75-point team total is much higher than it was in previous weeks.
He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
The Eagles have settled in as an average neutral pass rate team after wavering last season. This will be a big test for this offense against the No. 2 adjusted sack rate defense with injuries sprinkled throughout the OL, but the good news is even if he's under pressure, both offenses are top-4 in neutral pace. There will be volume.
Likely no Rashod Bateman (foot) hurts, but Lamar set a new season-high in carries (12) last week (and QB runs are more valuable than passes for fantasy). This week, Lamar faces his former defensive coordinator, one who typically plays a ton of man coverage (2nd highest rate this year) and blitzes (4th highest rate). I worry about his WRs getting open, but this defense would welcome scrambling.
Over the last 3 weeks, the Bucs are 1st in neutral pass rate (67%) by a wide margin. They're mostly healthy at WR and have struggled running the ball (last in rushing EPA), so I envision this trend holding. Don't be scared by the name brand defense in Pittsburgh either. No T.J. Watt and potentially 1-4 starters in the secondary; CB Cameron Sutton (DNP Wednesday), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (DNP), CB Levi Wallace (DNP), and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (DNP). Buffalo did whatever they want against the Steelers last week.
Let's call Chargers LT Ra'Shawn Slater and Broncos EDGE Randy Gregory a wash. Especially against this outlier level two-high shell defense (89% rate, by far the highest in the NFL), the Chargers really need Keenan Allen (hamstring) back. They're currently 3rd in percentage of passes near the sideline, and those types of targets aren't efficient before accounting for CB1 Pat Surtain's presence this week.
Joe Burrow hasn't thrown the ball downfield this year, and when he has, it hasn't been as effective. They've dropped from 3rd in catch rate on 15+ air yard passes last year to 22nd this year. Some of it has been because they're facing two-high shells more often. Some of it has been because they haven't taken advantage of their Cover 1/3 opportunities either. The Bengals have dropped from 1st to 14th in yards per attempt against those single-high looks. Most of this will regress to somewhere in the middle, but Burrow needs to hit more throws -- no reason to go from 1st to 22nd in completion percentage over expected -- and the coaching staff needs to move Ja'Marr Chase around more often to get him more easily out of bracket coverage. This is a good matchup to test it, with New Orleans ranking 1st in man coverage (and they could be without CB1 Marshon Lattimore).
We talked about him here, with film.
They've been bad, but the betting markets remain optimistic, giving the Packers the 3rd-highest team total (26.25) of the week. Rodgers should be able to move the ball against this young Jets defense, so it's a clear get right spot for the offense at home. If it doesn't happen this week, it's time to really reset expectations. With that said, Rodgers personally must overcome No. 25 neutral pass rate and No. 31 neutral pace to hit as a fantasy QB. He's stuck on the QB1/2 border depending on matchup.
Not having Xavien Howard (questionable) and Byron Jones (out) has really hurt this Dolphins defense, one that is in a single-high shell at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL. Miami is suddenly 30th against fantasy QBs on No. 30 passing EPA allowed. Justin Jefferson, who ranks 2nd in yards per route run (4.4) versus single-high shells, should go ham.
Hopefully you've been watching our show because the Geno Smith tape (video) has been very good all year. This is a legit offense led by a legit QB, and this week they face the No. 32 adjusted sack rate and No. 28 passing EPA defense. Even before Rashaad Penny's injury, the Seahawks pivoted to a pass-first offense, ranking 6th in neutral pass rate.
We talked about him here, with film.
Why do the betting markets keep projecting the Rams for so many points? The OL is shattered and the non-Kupp skill players can't create on their own. At least the Rams catch a traveling-west Panthers squad that fired their defensive coordinator and head coach this week.
TLaw is leading the NFL in success rate against MOFC (middle of field closed) defense, and the Colts defense is 2nd in MOFC rate.
A boom-bust QB2 during bye week season, Jimmy Garoppolo has multiple-touchdown upside with the 49ers' 25.0-point team total but offers no floor with their No. 28 neutral pace and No. 31 neutral pass rate. At least the Niners' iffy OL won't be tested by the No. 31 adjusted sack rate defense.
Fields remains an outlier in sacks taken, but last week's game was encouraging, as he showed full field reads, downfield accuracy, and scramble ability. This is a week to get ahead of what could be a decent enough second half of the year after learning a new offense. Washington's defense is led by dolts, leading to bottom-8 passing EPA numbers.
Jones is averaging a career-high 8.2 carries and 46.0 rushing yards per game in this new offense that features zero (0) talent at receiver or tight end. His rushing ability paired with Saquon Barkley is essentially the entire offense. Baltimore played better in recent weeks but remains dead last against fantasy QBs and offenses facing the Ravens are choosing to pass in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL.
He's averaging 49.7 rushing yards in his three losses, and the Falcons are 5.5-point home dogs here. While still good, the Niners' defense could be missing DE Nick Bosa (groin), DE Samson Ebukam (Achilles), DT Arik Armstead (foot, ankle), DT Javon Kinlaw (knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee), and S Jimmie Ward (hand), so they're less formidable of an opponent if Kyle Pitts and Drake London return.
This sets up as one of the most run-heavy games of Week 6. When they do pass, expect a ton of single-high and man coverage.
Stud CB1 Jaylon Johnson returns to face some Terry McLaurin on the outside. Wentz can make some downfield throws against this single-high defense, but the OL is a legit disaster. The C and LG were down bad (read: badddddddddd) last week.
It doesn't look great.
He's averaging just 3.2 carries and 13.5 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. Those used to be 5.6 and 31.3 before 2021. Wilson isn't a good enough passer in this offense to make up for that huge difference.
I think Pickett played way better than his box score indicated. I'm optimistic he can keep Diontae Johnson and George Pickens afloat.
Pass success rate: Pickett (10th out of 36 QBs) vs. Trubisky (32nd)
Comp % over exp: Pickett (2nd) vs. Trubisky (30th)
The Jets are running more with Wilson back, and offenses facing the Packers are running the ball in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate. There are overall play volume concerns here, in addition to the Packers' defense being top-10 in passing EPA, adjusted sack rate, and against fantasy QBs.
They are dead last in neutral pace over the last three weeks, and Michael Thomas (toe), Chris Olave (concussion), and Jarvis Landry (ankle) didn't practice on Wednesday. We'll see if they go with Jameis Winston (limited) this week.
It'll be all ground game this week.
Not an NFL starting QB.
Not an NFL starting QB.
The Underdog Network has a podcast with Steve Smith if you haven't heard. It's tight.
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Saquon Barkley
Nick Chubb - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.
Austin Ekeler
Leonard Fournette
Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.
Alvin Kamara - He's better without the WRs in the lineup and with Andy Dalton under center. Just look at these Jameis Winston splits below.
Joe Mixon
Dalvin Cook - He's not playing the same allotment of snaps as before. It's unclear if this is shoulder related or a new coaching staff's decision.
Aaron Jones
Breece Hall - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
Miles Sanders
Ken Walker - We talked about him here, with film.
Darrell Henderson - Cam Akers is a surprise out due to personal reasons (video). Henderson had 13.0 expected half PPR points on 82% Week 1 snaps when Akers was in the doghouse. I'm expecting similar, if not better, numbers here. In Week 1, the Rams lost by a billion to the Bills, and this week, the Rams are hosting the coach-less Panthers at home as 10-point favorites. .... And for the true sickos, go stash Kyren Williams. His Week 1 injury had a 6-8 week timeline, so he could be in the mix soon.
David Montgomery - He immediately retook the clear 1A role. Washington is 2nd in light box rate and last in stacked box rate, which invites the run. Don't dare the Bears into having a good time.
Najee Harris - Jaylen Warren has impressed, but mostly in garbage time. I'm betting on Pickett, who throws underneath more often, to be good for Harris moving forward.
Eno Benjamin - This assumes James Conner (DNP Wednesday) and Darrel Williams (DNP Wednesday) are out.
Jeff Wilson - Tevin Coleman mixed in early after Schefter hinted at this happening the week prior. Wilson and Coleman both looked great last week, so there's some volatility here. We talked about him here, with film.
Raheem Mostert (Questionable) - The usage and pop are there, but Skylar Thompson is QBing and stud LT Terron Armstead (DNP Wednesday) had a setback.
Melvin Gordon - This is a volatile situation with Latavius Murray in the mix as Gordon's early-down insurance. Mike Boone has juice but isn't reliable and could be stuck in a passing down role.
Devin Singletary
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Kareem Hunt
James Robinson - He's positive game script and TD dependent, with Travis Etienne getting the explosive looks.
Deon Jackson - Both Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines (concussion) were ruled out. Last week, Jackson had 10.5 expected half PPR points to Phillip Lindsay's 9.0, and Jackson was more productive on his chances.
Ezekiel Elliott
Travis Etienne - We talked about him here, with film.
Tony Pollard
Michael Carter
J.K. Dobbins - There's not enough RB usage to be losing snaps to Kenyan Drake.
AJ Dillon
Rachaad White - We talked about him here, with film.
Phillip Lindsay - See RB25 Deon Jackson.
Alexander Mattison
Joshua Kelley - He's taken over the RB2 job for the Chargers.
Tevin Coleman - We talked about him here, with film.
Brian Robinson - We talked about him here, with film.
J.D. McKissic - This backfield is a total mess.
Jerick McKinnon
Tyler Allgeier - This is as ugly as it gets.
Khalil Herbert
Chase Edmonds
Antonio Gibson
Samaje Perine
Jaylen Warren - We talked about him here, with film.
Caleb Huntley
Mark Ingram
Mike Boone
Kenneth Gainwell
Latavius Murray
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Cooper Kupp
Justin Jefferson - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video). 2nd in YPRR vs. single-high coverage (4.4) against a defense that runs single-high coverage at the 4th-highest rate. Oh, and the top two CBs could miss.
Stefon Diggs
Ja'Marr Chase - We talked about him here, with film.
Mike Evans - The Steelers secondary is banged up bigly.
Marquise Brown
Deebo Samuel - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
A.J. Brown - He's been running cold on TDs. That should correct.
Mike Williams - This assumes Keenan Allen (hamstring) is out, but this is not a good individual matchup. The Broncos play two-high coverage at the highest rate (89%) -- where Williams is 59th out of 86 WRs in yards per route run (SIS) -- and have elite CB1 Pat Surtain.
DK Metcalf - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.
Courtland Sutton
Tyreek Hill
Jaylen Waddle
Amari Cooper
Michael Pittman - We talked about him here.
Tyler Lockett - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.
CeeDee Lamb
Christian Kirk
Gabe Davis - We talked about him here, with film.
Chris Godwin
Curtis Samuel - We talked about him here, with film.
Drake London - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video). The 49ers (banged up) defense plays zone defense at the highest rate (71%) in the NFL, and London is 12th in yards per route run versus zone out of 73 qualifiers.
DeVonta Smith
Allen Lazard
Jakobi Meyers
Adam Thielen
Terry McLaurin - Expect some CB Jaylen Johnson, who is a stud.
Devin Duvernay - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
JuJu Smith-Schuster - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Diontae Johnson - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
George Pickens - We talked about him here, with film.
Tyler Boyd - This assumes Tee Higgins (DNP Thursday) is out.
Isaiah McKenzie - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
Rondale Moore - We talked about him here, with film.
Garrett Wilson
Elijah Moore - It's all deep targets for him now.
D.J. Moore
Romeo Doubs
Joshua Palmer - This assumes Keenan Allen is out.
Brandon Aiyuk
Darnell Mooney
Jerry Jeudy
Zay Jones
Russell Gage
Michael Gallup
Corey Davis
Allen Robinson
Alec Pierce
Marquez Callaway - This assumes everyone is out.
Tre'Quan Smith - This assumes everyone is out.
Marvin Jones
Randall Cobb
Chase Claypool
Darius Slayton - This assumes everyone is out.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Demarcus Robinson
K.J. Osborn
Noah Brown
Mecole Hardman
A.J. Green
DeVante Parker
Robbie Anderson
Khalil Shakir
Ben Skowronek
Skyy Moore
Jauan Jennings
Kendrick Bourne
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce
Zach Ertz
Tyler Higbee
Dallas Goedert - We talked about him here, with film.
David Njoku - We talked about him here, with film.
George Kittle
Kyle Pitts (Questionable) - He was limited all week.
Dawson Knox - He was limited all week but left off final list.
Hayden Hurst - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).
Gerald Everett
Irv Smith
Evan Engram
Hunter Henry
Taysom Hill - We talked about him here, with film.
Cameron Brate
Robert Tonyan
Juwan Johnson
Will Dissly
Mo Alie-Cox
Dalton Schultz (Questionable) - He was limited-limited-full.
Cole Kmet
Noah Fant
Tyler Conklin
Zach Gentry - No Pat Freiermuth.
The defenses of the week are the Commanders, Rams, 49ers, Ravens, Bears, Bucs, and Eagles, with the Chargers, Packers, Browns, and Bengals also in play.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest. Here are my downloadable rankings. Save this as a CSV, change "ID" to "id", and upload them on the Rankings tab on Underdog desktop. Good luck!
Column is coming soon.