Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 5 Recap
Week 6 RB Rankings
Jonathan Taylor - 110.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB3 usage this month as a potential OPOY winner. The Colts get another 27-point team total (4th) at home against the Cardinals. Eruption spot.
Christian McCaffrey - 108.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB2 on RB1 usage this month, and the 49ers remained banged up. Mac Jones is good for CMC, and George Kittle (hamstring) will miss another one with Ricky Pearsall (knee) questionable. McCaffrey should see fantasy WR1 usage and struggle on the ground, especially with the Buccaneers leading the NFL in rushing EPA once again. They're also best in average tackle depth on RB carries.
Josh Jacobs - 97.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB6 on RB2 usage this month and had a monster game before the bye. Hopefully the Packers get back some OL starters after the bye, but even without them, Jacobs has survived. Now Green Bay has a 29.25-point team total (1st) as a 14-point home favorite against the Bengals. It's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart.
Bijan Robinson - 105.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB9 usage, and Bijan should be ready to go off of bye. It's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, and the Bills are 30th in average tackle depth on RB carries. My eye test agrees. The Bills have struggled stopping the run and have dealt with injuries in the front seven.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 99.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB5 on RB7 usage this month with the Lions 31st in neutral pass rate. This week, Detroit is 10th in projected points (24.75), which is a lot lower than normal, but it's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart. The Chiefs have struggled against RBs, are on short rest here, and their offense should shred this banged-up Lions defense on the other side. I'm expecting a huge shoutout.
Javonte Williams - 92.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB5 usage this month, and the Cowboys are 6th in projected points (26.5) against the Panthers. Williams is balling in an elite rushing scheme and there's hope that a couple OL starters return to the lineup here. Even without them last week, Williams had some explosive runs and is the clear-cut bellcow with rookie Jaydon Blue just sprinkling in replacing the injured Miles Sanders. It's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart.
James Cook - 91.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bills are 4th in projected points (27.0), and nothing has changed. He's been the RB7 on RB10 usage this month, despite a season-low 9.4 expected half PPR points last week. The Falcons are light in the shorts up front and should give up plenty of rushing yards the rest of the way. They're 29th in average tackle depth on RB carries.
De'Von Achane - 94.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB9 on RB8 usage this month using half PPR scoring, and he's sitting at a 20% target share without Tyreek Hill on the field. The OL remains so limited that the Dolphins aren't trying to run, but Achane is still catching a bunch of balls with a chance of an explosive gain at any time. These underneath targets and outside runs are the only ways to beat this strong Chargers defense, so despite Miami's below-average 19.5-point team total, Achane is a fantasy RB1.
Saquon Barkley - 101.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles yards before contact per carry on RB carries has dropped from 1st to 16th this year. There's clear reasons beyond Saquon himself. LG Landon Dickerson had a back injury and now his ankle has him sidelined weeks, C Cam Jurgens just said he's not fully healthy after back surgery, and RG Tyler Steen was a backup last year. The Eagles are now shifting away from a run-based team towards a legit pass-first team, so Barkley will have fewer opportuties to rip off his signature big plays. The good news is this is a an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, and it's a revenge game vs. the Giants.
Ashton Jeanty - 94.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Raiders OL being bad will be an issue on the margins, but Jeanty graduated to rare bellcow usage last week. In the first half, he played 27-of-31 snaps before halftime and full garbage time. The Raiders have a league-average 23.0-point team total at home against the Titans, who have one elite DT but are missing everything else. It's a good spot for him to have a positive outing.
Kyren Williams - 88.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Rams are 7th in projected points (26.0), so there's a ton of upside to chase. There's some uncertainty after each back fumbled last week, but Williams received the benefit of the doubt after his while Blake Corum was straight-up not seen from again after his. If this is no longer a 66/33 split, then Williams returns to the set-and-forget RB1 tier. He's been the RB8 on RB6 usage this month mostly in a committee. The Ravens have half of their defensive starters on the sideline, including a few key DTs. It's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, which shows Baltimore allowing the most rushing EPA per carry in the NFL.
Rico Dowdle
He couldn't be stopped last week in a cupcake matchup, leading to a season-high 19.3 expected half PPR points (elite RB1 usage). The Cowboys are slightly better than the Dolphins up front, but this is another great spot for Dowdle as long as Chuba Hubbard is out again. It's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart. The Panthers have an above-average 23.25-point team total at home.
Rachaad White - 80.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bucs are 8th in projected points (25.5), and White had a season-high 16.9 expected half PPR points in a more difficult matchup last week. It was a no contest with Sean Tucker, even at the goal line where White converted his opportunity. White is reliable in the pass game, too, so his floor is higher than most. The 49ers have better depth this year, but losing EDGE Nick Bosa and potentially others up front does matter.
Quinshon Judkins - 92.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Browns are 29th in projected points (16.0) as usual, but Judkins looks like a superstar in the making and his usage has escalated each week. He's had 17.5 and 18.9 expected half PPR points over the last two weeks, clear RB1 usage even factoring in how bad the Browns offense has been. The Steelers on the road are a slightly difficult matchup.
Breece Hall - 96.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jets are 27th in projected points (18.0) against the Broncos, but the Jets are last in neutral pass rate and getting some push on the ground for Hall. He's losing snaps to Isiah Davis in the pass game even without Braelon Allen, but Hall is a high-upside rushing threat right now. He had a season-high 15.2 expected half PPR points last week (RB11 usage) without Allen and with Justin Fields in negative game script.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 75.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Commanders are 3rd in projected points (27.25), and it's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart with the Bears ranking 31st in average tackle depth on RB carries. More importantly, Week 5 was a firm changing of the guard. Bill started the game, was the clear early-down favorite, and only lost snaps to Chris Rodriguez in full-blown garbage time. That led to 11.3 expected half PPR points and two real-life scores on the perimeter. He hasn't taken the pass-game work from Jeremy McNicols yet, but Bill doesn't need them to be an upside RB2 in good matchups. He's been highly efficient on the ground in a complex rushing scheme. His patience and decision-making have been even more impressive than his burst.
J.K. Dobbins - 79.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos are 8th in projected points (25.5) against a Jets defense without juice or LB Quincy Williams. This is a great spot for Dobbins, who has been the clear lead back in neutral situations. He's ran extremely well and is coming off 14.3 expected half PPR points last week in Philly, with RJ Harvey only sprinkling in. He's the RB17 on RB23 usage this month.
Travis Etienne - 77.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Seahawks are 2nd-best in average tackle depth on RB carries, but the Jaguars are still projected for 24.5 points at home with the offense continuously moving the chains despite predictable mistakes. Etienne has stood out on tape, improving his decisiveness and explosiveness as a rusher. He's hitting cutback lanes in a more complex rushing and screen system. He's the RB19 on RB18 usage this month, not including his career-best game in Week 1. Meanwhile, Bhayshul Tuten is making some mistakes while flashing athleticism as his distant backup.
Cam Skattebo - 68.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Giants are 28th in projected points (16.5) vs. the Eagles on a short week and Tyrone Tracy (shoulder) is expected to return. It's by far the worst spot he's been in since being in our fantasy football lives. Skattebo does seem to be so loved and trusted by the staff and QB that he should very clearly be the lead back, while Tracy competes in the Devin Singletary role. "44 Loko" (my nickname for Skattebo) is the RB13 on RB4 usage this month.
Derrick Henry - 68.5 rushing yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Ravens are 26th in projected points (18.5) and they've run the fewest plays per game (50) in the NFL. Henry's usage hasn't dropped without Lamar Jackson (9.4 vs. 9.7 expected half PPR points per game), but that's only because his efficiency behind an iffy run-blocking unit missing LT Ronnie Stanley. His explosiveness is still there. It's the success rate and fumbles that are down, leading to RB36 on RB27 usage this month. There is blowout potential as 7.5-point dogs to the Rams here.
Kenneth Walker - 61.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In 4 games with Zach Charbonnet, Walker is averaging 9.6 expected half PPR points (RB27 usage). He's been electric with the ball in his hands and has had some unlucky circumstances that's led to Charbonnet goal-line scores. That should even out over time, assuming they want to continue with this 1-2 punch instead of leaning into the Walker efficiency bump. The Seahawks have a league-average 23.0-point team total in Jacksonville. It's unclear if EDGE Travon Walker (wrist) will return, but he's one of the best rushing defender when healthy.
D'Andre Swift - 72.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
There's uncertainty coming out of the bye week given Swift's lackluster success rate and trustworthiness, especially with rookie Kyle Monangai available for a Wally Pipp. Before the bye, Swift was the RB20 on RB16 usage, so a slight downgrade from that seems warranted. The Bears have a league-average team total (22.5) in Washington, where the Commanders have the 4th-best average tackle depth on RB carries.
David Montgomery - 56.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Lions are 10th in projected points (24.75), which is a bit lower than normal, but it's an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart. The Chiefs have struggled against RBs (4.9 YPC) and are on short rest here. When teams have been in neutral and positive situations, then they can pound it on Kansas City. This is an underrated solid spot for Montgomery, who is the RB16 on RB20 usage this month. He had an outlier usage game last week with his sister in town. Love a good narrative.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 60.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB25 on RB32 usage this month, but things are looking better without Antonio Gibson in the mix. Last week, Gibson was heavily involved early before his ACL tear. Stevenson is more trusted right now despite his fumbles, and he was subbed in at the goal line despite TreVeyon Henderson being on the field the play prior. Stevenson is the beneficiary of a great matchup vs. the Saints on a 24.5-point team total.
Tony Pollard - 69.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The veteran is the RB22 on RB23 usage this month with the Titans largely struggling, and that's expected to be the case again with an 18.5-point team total (26th) in Las Vegas. The good news is the Raiders are quite bad on defense and even 18 points is more than Tennessee usually puts up. The caveat is Tyjae Spears' workload is expected to continuously climb after debuting with 25% snaps last week. Pollard handled the remaining 74% snaps.
Chase Brown - 70.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bengals are 30th in projected points (15.25), and the Bengals are 2nd-lowest in plays per game with the highest neutral pass rate. There's simply no rushing production right now behind this OL, so Brown needs receptions and goal-line scores to save his season. It's not looking good against a Packers defense that even limited the Lions.
Michael Carter - 64.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
As expected, Carter handled all but one drive as the early-down grinder, while Emari Demarcado played on 16-of-18 late-down snaps. Carter was fine in a terrible situation and offers the most scoring upside in the backfield. The Cardinals won't have run-blocking TE2 Tip Reiman anymore, so efficiency should remain below average. His 15.4 expected half PPR points from last week (RB10 usage) are enough for FLEX faith with Arizona projected for 20.5 points in Indianapolis.
Jaylen Warren - 71.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's returning to practice after the bye, so it comes down to how much Kenneth Gainwell will factor into the rotation after his huge Week 4. We'll learn more later on. There's also Post Bye Rookie Bump candidate Kaleb Johnson eventually waiting for a chance.
Alvin Kamara - 62.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's day-to-day with an ankle injury.
He's the least efficient RB in my model this month, turning RB12 usage into RB32 points. The Saints OL is banged up, and the Patriots are best in tackles for loss rate against RB carries. Kamara needs the receptions to pay off with Kendre Miller involved, especially in positive game scripts. The return of Taysom Hill and their sudden dip in neutral pass rate also work against him.
Zach Charbonnet - 51.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB36 on RB27 usage this month, removing his missed game. Charbonnet is getting series at a time and almost all of the 2-minute drill situations, plus has run hot with goal-line usage for various non-sticky situations.
Kareem Hunt - 42.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 2nd in projected points (27.25), and Hunt keeps getting goal-line touches.
Isiah Pacheco - 45.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 2nd in projected points (27.25), and Pacheco at least played on 63% of the snaps last week and showed out well. He's not getting the goal-line touches, however. That's Kareem Hunt's music.
Kendre Miller
We'll see how serious the Alvin Kamara ankle injury is.
Kenneth Gainwell
I'll read about the Jaylen Warren vs. Kenny Gainwell vs. Kaleb Johnson outlook coming out of the bye later in the week.
RJ Harvey - 50.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
TreVeyon Henderson - 50.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Hassan Haskins
We discussed this in depth on our waiver wire show, but long story short, the physical Michigan alum is the favorite for goal-line and early-down carries, while Kimani Vidal and Nyheim Hines compete for pass-game duties. Haskins sprinkled in first when Omarion Hampton was healthy, and then he subbed out with the starters in the 4th quarter while Vidal played next to backup QB Trey Lance. There is room for FLEX appeal in standard and half PPR this week given the matchup. The Dolphins' average depth of tackle vs. RB carries are the worst in the NFL (6.0 yards downfield).
Kimani Vidal
Tyler Allgeier
Justice Hill
Week 6 WR Rankings
Puka Nacua - 100.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The weather calls for rain and 15-30 MPH winds, both lowering pass-game numbers and projected points, but Nacua gets used right by the line of scrimmage where the weather impact is at it's lowest. He's averaging 103 receiving yards per game since coming back from injury last year (15 games). Nacua is the WR1 on WR1 usage this month, obviously. It's not close.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
He's the WR2 on WR3 usage this month. Nuff said.
George Pickens - 72.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR4 on WR6 usage this month, and this matchup is far easier after being shadowed by Pro Bowl CB1 Sauce Gardner last week. The Cowboys have a monster 26.25-point team total against the Panthers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 75.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR19 usage this month, catching everything downfield. JSN doing this as an outside receiver is super impressive, and it's only being unlocked because Sam Darnold is balling in this under-center play-action offense. The Seahawks' team total is lower than usual at 23.25 points, but the Jaguars just swapped outside CBs this past week.
Drake London - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
This assumes Darnell Mooney (hamstring) misses and that the game plan continues to be a mix of outside and slot reps, like he had in Week 4 when he had 14.3 expected half PPR points and a 21-point outing. London is one of the best receivers in the game, and the Falcons should make the playbook largely about him. Atlanta is 5.5-point home dogs to the Bills this week, so an increase in dropbacks wouldn't be a surprise.
Emeka Egbuka - 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Only Randy Moss and Puka Nacua have scored more half PPR points through their first 5 NFL games than Emeka Egbuka. Elite company. Egbuka is a total professional as a route runner, has elite hands, showcases toughness, and can take advantage of his occasional manufactured touch. This looking eerily similar to Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, young Chris Godwin, and others. The Bucs have a 25.25-point team total as hosts to the 49ers, without EDGE1 Nick Bosa.
Rome Odunze - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR3 on WR4 usage this month, and the Bears are likely to cut the fat out of the bye and double down on what's been working. A lot of that is the standard dropback game to Odunze on breaking routes. Caleb Williams is playing legit good ball, and the Commanders secondary is vulnerable when their DL isn't wrecking havoc. Drake London (21.0) and Tre Tucker (36.9) have had spike weeks against them as outside receivers.
Deebo Samuel - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin isn't expected back, and the Commanders are 3rd in projected points (27.0) as hosts to the porous Bears secondary. They've been lit up by slot receivers while SCB Kyler Gordon dealt with injuries earlier on, but even with him back, this is an elite spot. Deebo is the WR12 on WR18 usage this month despite not having Jayden Daniels the entire time. He's averaging 13.8 expected half PPR points without McLaurin versus 9.7 with him in the lineup.
Ja'Marr Chase - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's averaging 13.1 half PPR points on 9.5 expected points in 3 games without Joe Burrow, but those included two impossible matchups and Joe Flacco is more willing to toss it up than Jake Browning is. Chase should be able to survive at this point. The Bengals are 14-point dogs here. Hello garbage time.
Xavier Worthy - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
His two games back from injury have included 12.1 and 14.0 expected half PPR points, enough for WR9 usage. He's a positive regression candidate with a high floor. The Chiefs use him underneath and on occasional downfield reps, which I do hope he will catch one for a long TD at some point during the regular season. This is the last game without Rashee Rice. It's time to go off. The Lions are missing both of their outside CBs here, while All Pro S/SCB Brian Branch roams the middle. The Chiefs have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Jaylen Waddle - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He has a 28% targets per route without Tyreek Hill this year and had a season-high 12.9 expected half PPR points last week. He looked great. Waddle was a star as a rookie without Hill, too. The Chargers pose a difficult matchup as the 4th-best defense against fantasy WRs, but Miami hasn't been able to run the ball and Waddle is the top option through the air.
Davante Adams - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The weather calls for rain and 15-30 MPH winds, both lowering pass-game numbers and projected points. In theory, this impacts Adams more with him seeing more downfield targets vs. man coverage. He's the WR9 on WR2 usage this month with a monster red zone workload.
Stefon Diggs - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
After being limited in the first 3 weeks, Diggs has balled out on way more looks. Over the past two weeks, he's had WR8 points on WR7 usage, and he's looked the part in a variety of ways. He's beat man coverage down the field and then showed elusiveness underneath. The Patriots are well coached and well quarterbacked, so I'm buying Diggs rest of season. Their 24.5-point team total is top-10, and the Saints defense is very static. I like OC Josh McDaniels chances of toying with their coverage rules.
Tetairoa McMillan - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR12 usage this month, as a spreadsheet buy low. This is a great spot to cash in these regression checks because McMillan is awesome on tape (just missing TDs), and the Cowboys can't stop anyone. They're the worst defense against fantasy WRs, and it's not close. Malik Nabers (33.2 half PPR), Romeo Doubs (26.8), Garrett Wilson (16.1), and Rome Odunze (13.7) have had big games in similar roles. The Panthers' 23.5-point team total could be their highest of the year.
A.J. Brown - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR38 on WR17 usage, so he's performing worse than his opportunities. The reason? Effort. He's playing like total shit on purpose and it's costing the Eagles points. This is obvious on tape and in his tracking numbers, like ESPN's Open Score where he's dropped from the 91st percentile to the 46th percentile. Who knows when he'll turn it on, but when he does, he'll ball out. The Eagles are passing the ball in neutral situations at the highest rates of Jalen Hurts' career because their run blocking is much worse up the middle. The Giants are 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs, so it'd be a good spot for Brown to care.
Brian Thomas - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR42 on WR15 usage this month, and last week's tape and usage was the best of the year. Thomas made a few plays and then lost a couple more fantasy points to two DPIs. The Jaguars are using him on more out-breaking routes where his confidence is higher. Hopefully he gets that signature yards after catch moment soon. It's coming. Buy low. The Seahawks are getting a lit bit exposed downfield right now without SCB Devon Witherspoon and FS Julian Love. Check the injury report on them later.
Michael Pittman - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR20 on WR21 usage this month, not including his great Week 1 performance. Pittman is benefiting from a couple RPO targets and Daniel Jones' comfort of throwing over the middle. The Colts are 5th in projected points (26.75) at home against the Cardinals, who are dealing with CB injuries. They've allowed 11.0+ half PPR points to opponents' outside WR1 in 4-straight games.
Quentin Johnston - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's coming off a season-low 5.9 expected half PPR points last week, which is probably not a coincidence without both OTs. The Chargers won't have as much time to throw downfield now, but this is another great spot for Johnston with the Dolphins secondary in town. He's the WR16 on WR14 usage this month.
Garrett Wilson - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR8 on WR10 usage this month, but this is most difficult task with All Pro CB1 Pat Surtain on the agenda. He's largely shut down outside WR1s Calvin Ridley (4.7 half PPR), Michael Pittman (6.0), Quentin Johnston (11.9), Ja'Marr Chase (4.8), and A.J. Brown (6.8). They've shaded safeties on top receivers in key situations, too. This is the most obvious defensive game plan for the Jets with their dropoff at receiver talent. New York is projected for just 18.0 points at home (4th lowest).
Courtland Sutton - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR18 on WR31 usage and has produced as a fantasy WR2 for two years now. Sutton ate CB1 Quinyon Mitchell's lunch at the catch point last week, and he'll need to do the same with CB1 Sauce Gardner here. Gardner has been shadowing top receivers this year, including George Pickens last week. He held him in check aside from one downfield TD. That's Sutton's music.
Ladd McConkey - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR53 on WR42 usage this month as a positive regression candidate this week. The Chargers have a terrible RB group at this point and can't pass protect, so the best avenue is the quick game, which plays into Ladd's strengths. The Chargers have a 24-point team total against the vastly-injured Dolphins secondary, who will start safeties at nickel corner this week.
Keenan Allen - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR25 on WR8 usage this month as a positive regression candidate this week. The Chargers have a terrible RB group at this point and can't pass protect, so the best avenue is the quick game, which plays into Keenan's strengths. The Chargers have a 24-point team total against the vastly-injured Dolphins secondary, who will start safeties at nickel corner this week.
DeVonta Smith - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR26 on WR37 usage this month, but the Eagles are ticking up their neutral pass rate after getting bad results on the ground with new interior OL. Smith is the one looking explosive and showing effort. He's great whenever targeted, and this is the best his situation has looked in a bit. The Giants are also 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs.
Jauan Jennings
He's limited in practice, while Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle are DNPs. Jennings was a high-ceiling WR2 last year in this spot and is the WR27 on WR20 usage this month while playing with Pearsall. This is an underrated great spot against the Bucs' pass funnel. They have the best rushing defense in the NFL.
Romeo Doubs - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR13 on WR40 usage this month, and his numbers are up without Jayden Reed. We'll see if Matthew Golden gets used more out of his bye, but Christian Watson is likely one week away, so this is another beautiful spot for their improving X receiver. Doubs has multi-touchdown potential with the Packers ranking 1st in team total (29.25) against the Bengals.
Jakobi Meyers - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR52 on WR25 usage this month, but he's been efficient before and Brock Bowers (knee) isn't expected to play. Is Meyers going to bust again with the a 23.0-point team total at home against the 8th-worst defense against fantasy WRs? Opposing WR1s have had at least 9.9 half PPR points in all 5 games against the Titans (Sutton, Nacua, Pittman, Collins, Harrison).
Calvin Ridley - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He had a season-high 13.9 expected half PPR points last week, helping him reach WR46 on WR41 usage over the past month. The hope is Cam Ward's aggressiveness starts converting some spike weeks, as we saw with Ridley last year with a worse (aggressive) QB. Ridley is in a great spot with the Raiders struggling in the secondary. There zone coverage communication and speed is awful. They've allowed at least one WR per week to reach 12.4 half PPR points.
Chris Olave - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR30 on WR5 usage this month, as a spreadsheet buy low in a bad offense. The matchup is difficult, however. He'll see CB1 Christian Gonzalez on the outside, and the Patriots haven't allowed a fantasy WR to clear 11.0 fantasy points in 3 weeks when he returned.
Marvin Harrison - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR33 on WR36 usage this month. The same on-field limitations are showing up on tape with Harrison, but he's converting more of his contested-catch opportunities. Harrison might actually get more over the middle looks if Jacoby Brissett has to play instead of Kyler Murray (foot), and if it's an injured Kyler, then no thanks. The Cardinals' team total is now 19.75 points. Luckily the Colts secondary features a backup to a CB who straight up retired midseason.
DK Metcalf - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Still extremely big and fast, Metcalf is a big play waiting to happen, which is what happened when he took a simple short route to the house after running by the free safety. He's also a red zone threat when the Steelers get down there, which is how he's the WR11 in fantasy points per game this month. All that said, Metcalf is the WR55 in usage and the Steelers are using WRs at the lowest rate in the NFL. He's not getting as many downfield routes either, rather learning how to be the quick game check in the Aaron Rodgers offense. It's a wildly different role than he's ever had in the NFL. A below-average 21.5-point team total against the Browns and Pro Bowl CB1 Denzel Ward awaits. Tough spot.
Troy Franklin - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR35 on WR24 usage this month, operating in some fun ways. Franklin has been used in the screen and RPO game, then gets a handful of downfield reps, and has even seen red zone usage as the Broncos' primary secondary receiver. With Courtland Sutton on CB1 Sauce Gardner, there's opportunity for others to show out. Ryan Flournoy (15.4 half PPR), all three Bucs WRs (10.0 to 11.5), Elijah Moore (10.2), and Calvin Austin (15.0) have had random spike weeks in this spot. Denver has a great 25.5-point team total. This is the most optimistic I've been all year for him.
Matthew Golden - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Arguably nobody has been more unlucky in fantasy than Golden who could've had 3 really long scores in a different simulation. Golden is a Post Bye Rookie Bump candidate after only running 70% routes in Week 4. He's capable of being a downfield and underneath threat from inside or outside, so there's a lot of room for more usage coming out of the bye. The matchup is excellent, at home against the Bengals with a week-high 29.25-point team total.
Tre Tucker - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR17 on WR28 usage this month as the Raiders full-time outside receiver, and Brock Bowers won't play here. It's a great spot against the Titans at home, which is why the team has an above-average 23.0-point team total. Tucker is a volatile deep threat, so expect boom-bust outings from him. He has a chance to get home here after a 25% target share last week before garbage time.
Rashid Shaheed - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR23 on WR44 usage this month, and since the beginning of last year, he's on a 972-yard pace on some bad offenses. Shaheed has legit speed and route running, even breaking some ankles on tape last year. He's basically Tank Dell with worse QB play. This week, he'll dodge CB1 Christian Gonzalez more than Chris Olave will because Shaheed is hidden in the slot on 42% of his snaps.
DJ Moore - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR41 on WR46 usage this month, while Rome Odunze has broken out as the normal dropback game alpha. Moore is used as a version of Deebo Samuel now, with more snaps in the slot and backfield. That's smart coaching but makes his weekly ceiling lower. We'll see if we get more 2-TE sets or more Luther Burden out of the bye.
Khalil Shakir - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR32 on WR59 usage this month, thanks to a wild broken tackle TD from distance in Week 4. The Bills spread the ball around too much to have a major ceiling, but Shakir is a reliable slot with screen usage when fully healthy. Remember he came into the year with an injury. He should be fully healthy now. The Falcons are next up.
Chris Godwin - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He doesn't look like himself. The Bucs put him back inside more and he found some spots in zone, but his screen attempt wasn't pretty and he had an out route drop. He's only produced 4.1 fantasy points per game (WR80) on 9.7 expected points per game (WR30) since his return. Tampa has a great 25.25-point team total, however, so he could absolutely power his way into the end zone at any point.
Marquise Brown - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR47 on WR49 usage, and now the Chiefs have the 2nd-highest team total of the week while hosting the Lions, who won't have their top-3 outside CBs this week.
Josh Downs - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Like always, his tape is better than his box score, and last week was bad news for his long-term potential despite having a couple great receptions. Even with AD Mitchell benched and Alec Pierce out, Downs couldn't crack 2-WR sets, so he's permanent route rate will be under 75%. It's hard to be counted on in fantasy without 2-WR sets. The Colts' 26.75-point team total is the saving grace here.
Tee Higgins - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's down to WR48 on WR39 usage this month, and that's even worse over the past 3 games without Burrow. The bad news, Cincy has the lowest team total of the week at 15.75 points in Green Bay. The good news is Joe Flacco is proven to throw the ball into tight windows more than Jake Browning was willing to do. There will be more chances now, but Flacco is still one of the worst QBs who will start each week.
Zay Flowers - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR43 usage this month and is about there since last December started over a bigger sample. Now, Flowers is without Lamar Jackson on a team projected for just 18.5 points, and the weather calls for rain and 15-30 MPH winds, both lowering pass-game numbers and projected points. It's the worst spot Flowers has been in for a long while.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's had 7.5 and 9.9 expected half PPR points with Jaxson Dart and without Malik Nabers, but the ceiling games with downfield work are likely over without Russ. Robinson needs to be a scam once again. He's capable of that as 7.5-point home dogs, but that also means Cooper DeJean and a great LB tandem are coming to town.
Jameson Williams
One game, he'll have a long touchdown or two. I don't know when that'll be and neither do you. The Lions are 31st in neutral pass rate this year, and Sam LaPorta is healthy. There may be fewer underneath and intermediate 1st-read targets this year.
Cooper Kupp - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Keon Coleman - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne
Travis Hunter - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Ryan Flournoy - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Elic Ayomanor - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Dontayvion Wicks
Marvin Mims - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Isaiah Bond - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Malik Washington - 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tyquan Thornton - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Xavier Legette
Jalen Tolbert
Week 6 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's a positive regression candidate on the TE2 overall usage. McBride is a safety outlet if Jacoby Brissett suits up, and the Cardinals can't run the ball efficiently with 3rd-stringers at RB and blocking TE. It's possible Arizona passes more for the rest of the year.
Jake Ferguson - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In games without CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson is the TE1 overall with 13.6 expected half PPR points. His targets per route is as good as anybody, and he's targeted in the red area, too. The Cowboys' 26.25-point team total is 6th-best of the week, and the Panthers straight up cut a starting LB a couple weeks ago.
Tyler Warren - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
What's there to say? Warren is the TE7 on TE5 usage this month and is being used near the goal line in various ways. With the Colts projected for 27.0 points again (3rd most), Warren has as good of odds of a touchdown as any tight end.
Darren Waller - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was limited to 32 snaps by design last week, but his snap count is trending upwards and they're making the most of each snap. Waller is the TE4 in usage since debuting despite the lack of full-time snaps, and he looks great on tape. He's basically a receiver with a 24% targets per route without Tyreek Hill. He's getting motion reps and first-read targets in the red area. It's real for as long as he can stay healthy. Things will be more difficult against S Derwin James and LB Daiyan Henley this week.
Travis Kelce - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The concentration drops are staggering, but Kelce is moving fairly well after the catch and the Chiefs offense is undoubtedly taking off (2nd-highest team total). He had a season-high 11.6 expected half PPR points last week, and the Lions are missing multiple starters in the secondary right now. This is the highest game total of the week, and it's Sunday Night Football at home. These are the type of games he'll show up for.
Tucker Kraft - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Packers have the highest team total (29.25) of the week against the Bengals. Kraft is a legit red zone weapon. Do the math yourself.
Mason Taylor - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Know your league settings. In Full PPR, Taylor is looking better and better. The 2nd-round rookie is an efficient receiver with some YAC ability and reliable hands and zone instincts. That's more than half the battle for fantasy relevance. His expected half PPR points have climbed in 5-straight games, topping out at 15.2 last week. The Broncos remain a difficult matchup, but All Pro CB1 Pat Surtain will shadow Garrett Wilson and the ball needs to go somewhere.
Hunter Henry - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In the last 2 games with Stefon Diggs ramped up, Henry is averaging just 6.6 expected half PPR points, where it was 12.7 expected half PPR points in the first 3 games as the clear focal point. The good news is the Patriots' above-average 24.5-point team total vs. the Saints.
Dallas Goedert - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's coming off a season-high 13.4 expected half PPR points with A.J. Brown's effort in the ditch, so Goedert is up to TE3 on TE6 usage this month. The Eagles' ground game is worse with injuries and a new RG, and the solution in recent weeks has been ramping up their neutral pass rate. His receiving floor is a bit higher than usual right now.
Dalton Kincaid - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE6 on TE15 usage this month, on TE1 overall fantasy points per route. Kincaid has been money after the catch and been at the right spot in the red area. That's great news for him, but he also must be great there to make up for his lack of full-time snaps. The Bills have a 27-point team total in Atlanta (3rd most).
Sam LaPorta - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's coming off a big week, but the underlying metrics are hit-and-miss. His 19% targets per route are solid, not great, especially in an offense that's 31st in neutral pass rate. LaPorta simply won't get the PPR Scam volume of others in this tier, but he'll make up for it with more scoring chances on the Lions. A 24.5-point team total for Detroit is slightly lower than normal in Arrowhead. He's the TE15 on TE24 usage this month.
Evan Engram - 21.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's up to 9.1 expected half PPR points since coming back from injury (TE6 usage), and the Broncos are back up to 25.5 projected points. The Jets have CB Sauce Gardner shadowing, but the rest of the defense is bad and missing LB Quincy Williams. This is a great spot.
Theo Johnson - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
A monster of a man, Johnson is turning into a real first-target player without Malik Nabers. Last week, Johnson had two bubble screens plus two end zone targets as the isolated receiver in 3x1 sets. That's rare at the position. The Jaxson Dart offense will be RPO-heavy, and that means these bubbles and quick slants are on the menu. The matchup with the Eagles is extremely difficult, but keep an eye out here. He's an elite athlete with no target competition. He's the TE14 on TE7 usage this month, but that's 11.4 expected half PPR points over the past two weeks without Nabers (TE3 usage).
Jake Tonges - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
No George Kittle or Ricky Pearsall, and there's a chance Jauan Jennings also misses. Tonges has been the TE12 on TE8 usage this month with this personnel. With the Bucs turning into a pass funnel with an elite rushing defense, it's looking like another sneaky spot for Tonges.
Kyle Pitts - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
We'll see if Darnell Mooney (hamstring) plays, but most don't return this quickly. Pitts' expected half PPR points are at 8.7 without him (TE7 usage) versus 6.6 with him (TE24 usage). That sounds small, but it does matter with all TEs within microscopic projected points.
David Njoku - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He balled out last week, even hurdling a defender, on a season-high 14.7 expected half PPR points. 3rd-round rookie Harold Fannin is still stealing some underneath work from Njoku, but the veteran is a more physical, full-time player. Dillon Gabriel has a chance to be slightly better than Joe Flacco. Still, a 16-point team total doesn't inspire confidence. He's the TE16 on TE14 usage this month.
Zach Ertz - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It sounds like Terry McLaurin will miss again, but Deebo Samuel is balling out of the slot right now. Ertz is the TE24 on TE29 usage this month, though some of that was with Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are projected for 27 points at home against the Bears, who stink.
Harold Fannin - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's just the TE22 on TE23 usage but keeps flashing on tape as a receiver. The game script is more likely to be negative this week than last, as 5.5-point dogs to the Steelers who have had issues on intermediate/deep targets over the middle.
AJ Barner - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Keep an eye out here. He's a physical every-down starter in an offense that will use this position, and Barner is a capable receiver. They are just too run heavy to count on usually. He's the TE5 on TE25 usage this month, coming off a season-high 13.0 expected half PPR points.
Juwan Johnson - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's still running a route on 83% of dropbacks, but Johnson's usage is down recently with the Saints running the ball at the 4th-highest rate in neutral situations this month. Last week, Taysom Hill played 9 snaps, mostly as a wild cat QB which lowers the pass volume for everyone. That also could mean less work at the goal line. Stock down.
Colston Loveland
I'm hoping for the Post Bye Rookie Bump.
Mark Andrews - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He only had 2.4 expected half PPR points last week without Lamar Jackson and with Isiah Likely.
Tommy Tremble
Jonnu Smith - 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chig Okonkwo - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 6 QB Rankings
Josh Allen
Jayden Daniels
Patrick Mahomes
Jalen Hurts - 20.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Drake Maye
Dak Prescott
Baker Mayfield
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Caleb Williams
Matthew Stafford
Daniel Jones
Bo Nix - 18.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Justin Fields - 16.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jared Goff
Sam Darnold
Bryce Young
Trevor Lawrence
Jaxson Dart - 14.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Michael Penix
Mac Jones
Tua Tagovailoa
Geno Smith
Spencer Rattler
Aaron Rodgers
Jacoby Brissett
Dillon Gabriel
Cam Ward
Tyler Huntley
Joe Flacco
Week 6 Fantasy DEFs
The best defenses are the Packers, Broncos, Rams, Steelers, and Eagles with honorable mentions to the Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Browns, and Patriots.