Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 6 Recap
Week 7 RB Rankings
Bijan Robinson - 117.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
What is left to say? It's a good time to face the 49ers now that they're without All Pros Fred Warner and Nick Bosa with EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos also not practicing.
Jonathan Taylor - 112.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Chargers have been struggling without Khalil Mack setting the edge, evidenced by De'Von Achane (16-128-2) and Bill Croskey-Merritt (14-111-2) in back-to-back weeks.
Christian McCaffrey
He's the RB4 on RB1 usage this month, and it'll largely be the same personnel group but maybe with George Kittle to help spring some more explosive runs on the ground. The 49ers have pivoted to the highest neutral pass rate of the month because their OL is such a mess. That has meant WR1-level receiving usage for McCaffrey. That should continue here with the 49ers projected for 25.0 points at home against the Falcons, who have somehow only allowed 69 receiving yards to RBs the entire season (easily best).
Josh Jacobs
The Packers are 30th in pass rate inside the 10-yard line, and that's rarely with the QB. It's all Josh Jacobs, which is how he's had 21 TDs in his last 17 games. He's the RB3 on RB3 usage this month, and the Packers are 6th in projected points (25.5) against the Cardinals.
Javonte Williams - 87.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB12 on RB5 usage this month despite not having 3-4 OL starters for most of that span. The Cowboys are leading the NFL in points per game, and Jaydon Blue is not trusted as Williams' backup. It's a too big to fail situation for Williams, and he's played well himself on top of it. The Cowboys are 4th in projected points (26.5) vs. the Commanders.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 92.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB11 on RB6 usage this month, and after dominating touches over David Montgomery last week, the coaching staff wants to get back to even touches moving forward. Gibbs will have elite RB1 moments but isn't getting the volume of a true separator while his efficiency has regressed to more normal levels. Luckily, Gibbs is still attached to the highest team total of the week (29.0). The Buccaneers have been elite stopping the run but are allowing the 3rd-most receptions and receiving yards to RBs. That included 6-100-1 from Bijan Robinson, 4-31-0 to Breece Hall, and 7-57-0 from Christian McCaffrey.
Kyren Williams
He's the RB7 on RB9 usage this month, and Blake Corum (ankle) is dealing with an injury now and Puka Nacua won't be out there for those underneath looks that could end up trickling down to the RBs now. The Rams are projected for 23.75 points in Europe against the Jaguars.
Update: Blake Corum was a DNP on Wednesday.
Saquon Barkley - 90.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, but he needs it desperately. Saquon is only the RB20 on RB15 usage this month, and there are a couple of environmental reasons for that. First, the OL is beat up and not creating as much yards before contact this year. Second, when they get to the goal line, the ball is going to Dallas Goedert or Jalen Hurts. And the lastly, the offense isn't getting to the red zone as often for play-calling, QB, WR, and OL reasons. I don't see the OL getting much better this year, and the Hurts' issues have existed for his entire career.
Quinshon Judkins
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, which is absolutely needed after being completely phased out due to game script last week (season-low 7.4 expected half PPR points on a quarter of the passing snaps). Judkins is the RB16 on RB11 usage this month. That feels about right for his rest-of-season outlook. This is a better spot than usual with the Dolphins ranking last in just about every rushing metric imaginable.
Breece Hall - 94.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Jets are 31st in neutral pass rate, and without Garrett Wilson (knee) this week, the entire offense will be on the ground or with Hall as a receiver. He's the RB24 on RB14 usage this month, but this is a decent spot with the Jets projected for 20.25 points at home against the Panthers.
De'Von Achane - 96.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB8 on RB8 usage this month, but this is the most difficult spot yet with the Browns holding Miami's projected points to just 18.5 (4th lowest of the week). They've allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs on 3.2 yards per carry and 3.5 yards per target. That's insane.
Rachaad White - 77.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In his two starts, White is averaging 15.7 expected half PPR points (RB8 usage), and the lack of WRs this week should incentivize even more RB targets this matchup. The Lions defense is really banged up in the back half right now, too, so it's not a surprise the Bucs are projected for 23.5 points still.
Ashton Jeanty - 78.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB9 on RB7 usage this month, with the Raiders ranking 29th in neutral pass rate over that span. Jeanty is playing more in the pass game as a bellcow on a bad offense. The Raiders are 2nd-worst in projected points (17.0) in Kansas City. They've slowed down Gibbs (7.0 half PPR), Montgomery (7.1), Etienne (7.3), Henry (6.8), and Hampton (7.1) this year.
Kimani Vidal - 73.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Chargers started Vidal but he split snaps evenly with Hassan Haskins in the opening 15-play script. Vidal easily won the hot hand early, and finished with 76% snaps in the 2nd half and a designed sprint-out target in the end zone. Vidal is clearly more explosive than Haskins, and the size difference didn't prevent Vidal from being used down there. His 20.2 expected half PPR points last week are that of a fantasy RB1. Hopefully that continues. The Chargers are 7th in projected points (25.0) vs. the pass-funnel Colts.
D'Andre Swift - 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Ironically, Swift had his worst usage of the season (9.7 expected half PPR points) with 7th-round rookie Kyle Monangai playing some in each half, but Swift had his best game of the year. It's a credit to his speed, Ben Johnson's studying during the bye, and the new LT and Darnell Wright's health. They got him on pitches and stretch runs to help him make fewer decisions and play into his athleticism. It was a great, sustainable plan for the Bears. The OL and WRs were blocking their tails off. We haven't said that in a long time. Swift is the RB10 on RB18 usage this month. The Bears are 5th in projected points (25.75) vs. the Saints.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart and all of our eye balls. The Cowboys stink, and the Commanders are 3rd in projected points (28.5). The early-down RB has 29.7 (Josh Jacobs), 17.5 (Breece Hall), and 31.9 half PPR points (Rico Dowdle) in recent games.
Chris Rodriguez was completely phased out of the offense, leaving Bill on early downs and Jeremy McNicols on passing downs despite an early fumble from the rookie. Over the past two weeks, that's meant 11.3 and 10.3 expected half PPR points (RB23 usage).
Cam Skattebo - 71.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's on pace to be the best rookie fantasy football pick of 2025 with the Giants 32nd in neutral pass rate. It's been all Skattebo and Jaxson Dart with his legs. Even with Tyrone Tracy back, Skattebo had 3 rushing TDs on 18.8 expected half PPR points. He's the RB6 on RB4 usage this month since taking over Manhattan, but this isn another difficult test. The Giants have the lowest team total (16.75) against the Broncos in Denver, and C John Michael Schmitz is in concussion protocol.
Rico Dowdle
Panthers coach Dave Canales said "We'll see" when asked about the Dowdle and team captain Chuba Hubbard rotation. Dowdle has been too good to not start, while Hubbard has been too valuable to the team to be completely ignored. The Panthers have been extremely run heavy recently, however, so it's possible both have some fantasy value.
Travis Etienne
He's the RB22 on RB24 usage this month in more difficult matchups, but Etienne is playing well and 4th-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten hasn't done enough traditional RB things to change the pecking order yet. Hopefully the Jaguars can get C Robert Hainsey back, as he's the one who has been with coach Liam Coen the longest. This team is so inexperienced that Hainsey's absence is extremely felt. He'll try to be the first RB to score a rushing TD against the Rams this week. The Jaguars have an below-average 20.75-point team total at home.
Jordan Mason
It's hard to find any update on Aaron Jones, but he's not eligible to return for another week at least. Mason has been the RB13 on RB22 usage this month with inconsistent QB and OL play. He won't have his LG, C, and RT this week, and Mason will lose snaps in the pass game to Zavier Scott.
David Montgomery - 58.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Immediately following a season-low 4.1 expected half PPR points for Montgomery, the Lions said they plan to use Montgomery a lot more in the future. On a per play basis, he's just as good as Jahmyr Gibbs this year, so that'd make sense. Even with last week's dud, Monty is the RB18 on RB29 usage this month.
J.K. Dobbins - 69.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart while hosting the Giants on a 23.75-point team total. It was the same rotation last week, and Dobbins has been the RB23 on RB30 usage this month.
Jaylen Warren - 67.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart and our eyes against the Bengals, but he needs everything he can get at this point. Coming out of the bye, Warren had a season-low in expected half PPR points (7.9) with both Kenny Gainwell and 3rd-round rookie Kaleb Johnson getting touches. There's enough room for split touches with the Steelers projected for the 9th-most points (24.5).
Rhamondre Stevenson - 62.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Patriots used Mondre as the clear lead back over TreVeyon Henderson with Antonio Gibson (ACL) removed from the offense, leading to a solid 10.5 expected half PPR points last week (RB26 usage). It'll likely be Stevenson near the goal line for weight reasons, and Henderson has yet to earn more reps with his play. He's not forcing missed tackles and hasn't ripped off big plays in either phase yet. The Patriots are 9th in projected points (24.5) against the Titans, who are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs this year. They've allowed the starting RB to eclipse 15.6 half PPR points in 4-straight games with a season-low to J.K. Dobbins at 13.8 back in Week 1.
Kenneth Walker - 58.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's the same fairly even rotation with Charbonnet playing the 2-minute drill. And it's probably just to keep Walker healthy for the year and because Charbonnet is the more trusted player in pass protection. That led to a season-low 6.9 expected half PPR points last week and a plummeting to RB27 points and RB27 usage this month. It's simply wishcasting to expect otherwise.
Alvin Kamara - 70.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It sounds like Kamara doesn't want to be traded, so get used to this pretty gross committee at RB with wild cat Taysom Hill around to further vulture goal line opportunities. Kamara is only averaging 20 receiving yards this year, after averaging 42 yards in his first 8 seasons. It's not a big feature in the Kellen Moore offense, and that's probably a good thing for the team. Targets to Olave and Shaheed are way more valuable. He's the RB35 on RB16 usage this month.
Isiah Pacheco - 58.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB38 on RB36 usage this month, but Pacheco is looking better recently and had a season-high 12.0 expected half PPR points last week. He'll need the Kareem Hunt vultures to go away to have any shot of gaining FLEX trust, but the Chiefs are so good on offense that there are shots to take during the bye weeks. They have the 2nd-most projected points (28.5) while hosting the Raiders.
Zach Charbonnet - 51.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 13.7 expected half PPR points, helping him get to RB32 points on RB23 usage this month. He's not a starter but is playing even snaps with Charbs adding in bonus 2-minute drill snaps. It's a role worthy of flex consideration during bye weeks.
Chase Brown - 66.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bengals are 32nd in RB usage this month, and Brown's 8.1 expected half PPR points last week were a season low. His RB42 points and RB28 usage this month are hard to ignore.
Tony Pollard - 56.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
With the head coach and OL coach out, the Titans are turning the page once again. That means Pollard is an obvious trade candidate eventually. Last week, Tyjae Spears played more than in his debut, and the Titans are projected for 17.5 points this week (3rd worst) against the 5th-best fantasy RB defense (Patriots). Pollard's only way out is via trade at this point. Their is simply too little talent on this team for Pollard to be taken seriously if he's now longer playing 80% snaps. Last week was a season-low 6.5 expected half PPR points.
Woody Marks
He's the Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate of the week, but the Texans have the most difficult matchup of the week with the Seahawks' elite defensive line on deck. It's a terrible DL vs. OL mismatch on paper, though the Seahawks have allowed the most RB receptions as a counter punch. Houston is 4th-lowest in projected points (18.5) as 3.5-point road dogs.
Michael Carter
The Cardinals used an even rotation, with Carter playing more passing downs while Bam Knight handled early-down and goal-line carries. The expected half PPR points went 11.1 to Knight and 10.9 to Carter, and game script could be the thing that drives the difference on a week-to-week basis. Carter gets the bump this week with the Packers on deck.
Chuba Hubbard
We'll see later in the week.
Kareem Hunt - 34.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's coming off a season-low 4.8 expected half PPR points, but that's only because the Chiefs didn't have a goal-line carry, which is an unlikely outcome given how well the team is playing. Since Week 3, the Chiefs are 1st in EPA per play and success rate, and they have the 2nd-most projected points (28.5) while hosting the Raiders. Hunt can stumble into the end zone again.
Nick Chubb
He's the RB34 on RB32 usage this month and faces Post-Bye Rookie Bump competition from Woody Marks. On top of that, Houston has the worst DL vs. OL mismatch of the week against the Seahawks. It's red zone TD or bust. Houston is 4th-lowest in projected points (18.5).
Zonovan Knight
The Cardinals used an even rotation, with Carter playing more passing downs while Bam Knight handled early-down and goal-line carries. The expected half PPR points went 11.1 to Knight and 10.9 to Carter, and game script could be the thing that drives the difference on a week-to-week basis. Carter gets the bump this week with the Packers on deck.
Kenneth Gainwell - 46.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He had 8.1 expected half PPR points as the clear RB2 last week with Jaylen Warren back, and that was with ideal game script.
Tyler Allgeier
The Falcons are using Bijan Robinson as a legit receiver in pony personnel, allowing Allgeier to get touches as a traditional RB. He's the RB39 on RB39 usage this month and is capable of spike weeks when he bulldozes into the end zone. There are worse options in standard leagues.
RJ Harvey - 54.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In a blowout win a few weeks ago, Harvey had a big outing, but in every other game, he's barely played. His expected half PPR points have been under 5.0 in 3 of his last 4 games with no end in sight. J.K. Dobbins is playing fine football ahead of him.
TreVeyon Henderson - 54.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Even without Antonio Gibson last week and even with the Patriots offense ranking top-8 in most advanced offensive metrics, Henderson can't get home. His 5.9 expected half PPR points last week were a disappointment, and he's unlikely to take goal-line carries away from the thicccccer Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson has no value until he's ripping big plays and breaking tackles in space. To date, eeggghhh.
Week 7 WR Rankings
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 79.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR7 on WR11 usage this month, and the Lions are 1st in team total against the pass-funnel Buccaneers.
Drake London - 75.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR4 on WR2 usage this month and is smartly being used everywhere, particularly dominated in zone and from the slot. London is a stone-cold baller. Since moving on from the WR coach, he's had 14.3 and 22.0 expected half PPR points. Darnell Mooney (hamstring) is still limited in practice.
Davante Adams
He's the WR21 on WR4 usage this month, and that's with Puka Nacua operating as the WR1 overall in both categories. The entire pass game is now Adams' and the Rams are projected for 23.75 points. This matchup is why we play the game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 85.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR3 on WR14 usage this month, and JSN has one of the best QBs in the NFL. This will be his biggest matchup of the season with All Pro CB Derek Stingley coming into town.
Ja’Marr Chase - 77.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
The 3 games with Jake Browning held Chase to 9.5 expected half PPR points on average, but that jumped to an elite 16.5 with Joe Flacco last week. He was peppered with underneath targets in man coverage, and Chase looked like an All Pro. This is a better situation, especially with EDGE Trey Hendrickson also not playing on their defense. He'll face off with Darius Slay and Joey Porter.
Rome Odunze - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
It was an unfortunate outcome last week, but Odunze was given multiple downfield prayers and had an unrelated penalty call back a slot-fade TD in the red zone. With D.J. Moore (balls) coming out of the hospital, the entire normal dropback game runs through their sophomore. This week, the Bears are 5th in projected points (25.75) while hosting the Saints, who have struggled with big outside receivers this year; Kayshon Boutte (23.8 half PPR), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.1), Jauan Jennings (17.4), and even Marvin Harrison (15.6) got them. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart.
Nico Collins - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
The Seahawks' DL will prevent the Texans from running, and the only prayer they have for points right now is explosives to Collins and company. The Seahawks have CB1 Riq Woolen in trade talks and have been missing multiple starters in the secondary recently. It's a pass funnel defense that's struggling against players like Collins; Brian Thomas Jr (8-90-1), Emeka Egbuka (7-163-1), Marvin Harrison (6-66-1), Chris Olave (10-57-0), and Ricky Pearsall (4-108-0) all have big games. Collins is the WR9 on WR19 usage this month. Hopefully they have some better answers coming out of the bye.
George Pickens
He's the WR2 on WR5 usage this month, but CeeDee Lamb (ankle) is on pace to return. When Pickens' isn't facing star outside CB1s, he's still in the fantasy WR1 mix just like Tee Higgins was with the Bengals last year. The Commanders don't have one, and the Cowboys are projected for 26.25 points (4th most) in the highest game total game of the week (54.5).
Justin Jefferson - 77.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
It's trending towards Carson Wentz again. Jefferson has been the WR11 on WR8 usage this month with him and Jordan Addison back in the mix. This will be a tough task with 3 backup offensive linemen and a matchup with the Eagles and CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. He'll have to play like an All Pro to pay off. Good news, he usually does.
CeeDee Lamb
Receivers coming off high-ankle sprains typically take a couple weeks to get back up to normal and he was limited not fully practicing on Wednesday, but Lamb's baseline is flirting with WR1 overall and Dak Prescott is playing like mini Peyton Manning right now. The Cowboys are 4th in projected points.
Rashee Rice - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
It's likely Rice will end up as a fantasy WR1 rest of season, but there's no guarantee he's a full-time player in his debut from injury and suspension. He also doesn't need full-time snaps to go crazy in the most pass-heavy offense projected for top-5 points. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB on the planet right now, and they can use Rice's speed to fully take off. There's a bunch of short crossers in the offense right now. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart with the Raiders coming to town.
Brian Thomas - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
His hands and zone confidence keep taking points off the plate, but BTJ is still extremely explosive and a key part of the offense. This month, he's the WR24 on WR25 usage and is coming off a 13.1 expected points outing. The Rams' DL hasn't allowed a rushing TD to RBs this year, and their secondary is without CB1 Akhello Witherspoon (IR). Since he's been out, the Rams have allowed Elic Ayomanor (13.6 half PPR), A.J. Brown (19.9), DeVonta Smith (16.0), Michael Pittman (12.6), Adonai Mitchell (11.1 and a dropped TD), and Kendrick Bourne (19.2) to get home.
DK Metcalf - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
It's the Bengals, and now they're without both EDGEs. Their best remaining defensive player is CB1 D.J. Turner, who will match up with Metcalf. It's a brand new role for Metcalf with Aaron Rodgers. He's been highly efficient (WR6 on WR38 usage this month) on a much-lower aDOT because Rodgers is using him in the pre-snap check quick game at times. That's a good thing. A 25-point team total and the absence of Calvin Austin play into his favor, too. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart.
Courtland Sutton - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
It was a predictably tough spot last week against All Pro CB Sauce Gardner, who shut Sutton down to a season-low 5.1 expected half PPR points. This month, however, Sutton is the WR14 on WR33 usage and things open up here. The Giants are 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs. They run the 2nd-most man coverage, and WRs have a 70% target rate against man coverage across the NFL. That's Sutton's strength in particular.
Mike Evans
He's limited in practice so far. We'll know more later in the week, but since 2024 without Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, Evans has an elite 32% targets per route. They could use him with the Lions missing their top-3 outside CBs due to injury. If fully healthy, he's a top-8 WR this week. He's been out for 3 games and wasn't placed on IR for a reasons. Returning this week does make sense.
Jaylen Waddle - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
In 2 games without Tyreek Hill, Waddle is the WR6 on WR12 usage with a strong 25% target share. It's another tough spot for him matchup wise, however. He'll see CB Denzel Ward in coverage, and I have zero faith in the Dolphins OL versus Myles Garrett. There are good reasons for Miami's problematic 18.5-point team total, and now there's rain and wind in the forecast.
Ladd McConkey - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
We finally had a big YAC moment from the sophomore last week, and there's still a ton of upside with the Chargers maintaining the most WR usage of any team in the NFL this month, especially if Quentin Johnston (limited, hamstring) can't go again. It was a season-high 14.0 expected half PPR points last week without him, helping him rise to WR18 usage this month. The Colts' CB depth chart is amongst the worst in the NFL due to injuries, retirement, and pre-game concussions. It's a beautiful spot for Ladd.
Quentin Johnston
He's fully practicing off a hamstring injury. He was averaging 15.1 half PPR points on 12.2 expected points in the 5 games before he went down. This ranking makes some adjustments for injury risk.
Chris Olave - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR27 on WR3 usage this month, and we'll be chasing those expected points all year. This is a good matchup to cash in, however. The Bears are 8th-worst against fantasy WRs, and their best CB is in the slot where Olave doesn't often go into. The Saints have graduated from unwatchable offense territory with Spencer Rattler, and they have a fine-enough 20.75-point team total this week on the road.
Michael Pittman - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
The Colts are in a tough spot in Los Angeles against the 3rd-best fantasy WR defense. Pittman won't have Josh Downs (concussion) to compete with on shallow routes, but the zone defense is a challenge and the Chargers have turned into a mini run funnel without Khalil Mack around to set edges. Indy's 23.5-point team total is still solid but lower than past weeks. Pittman is the WR19 on WR27 usage this month. There are pros and cons to the matchup.
Romeo Doubs - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR17 on WR21 usage this month, on a 21% target share and a strong 30% target share in the red zone. Doubs has underrated TD potential with the Packers projected for 25.75 points (6th most) against the Cardinals, who recently got CB Will Johnson back.
Tetairoa McMillan - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Ironically, McMillan had his 1st and 2nd TD in a game where his usage was the lowest of the year. That's funky math. Anyways, the rookie is the WR29 on WR17 usage this month and has past the eye test with flying colors (aside from the drop leading to an INT). The Panthers will be very run heavy, but he's their answer when they need to throw. He'll be shadowed by Pro Bowl CB Sauce Gardner, who is playing very well this year. Tough spot.
Deebo Samuel
Terry McLaurin isn't practicing, but Deebo is dealing with his own heel injury right now and hasn't practiced. We'll learn more later in the week. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart and all of our eyes with the Cowboys scheduled.
Keenan Allen
He's the WR38 on WR6 usage this month, making him a spreadsheet buy low. The matchup is a double down on that. The Colts have dealt with injuries, pre-game concussions, and even a retirement at CB, and unless Kenny Moore returns with achilles tendinitis, they have no prayer against Justin Herbert and company through the air. Quentin Johnston is expected back, but Allen had 13.2 expected half PPR points in the 5 games with him.
Xavier Worthy - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
The return of Rashee Rice hurts Worthy's targets and underneath looks, but the Chiefs are undeniably elite on offense now, featuring the 2nd-highest team total of the week against the helpless Raiders' zone defense. On film, Worthy isn't the same player while dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries, even getting hawked down by Jack Campbell in a YAC pursuit. Hopefully his speed returns shortly. If it does, look out. He's the WR25 on WR15 usage this month.
Stefon Diggs - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR30 on WR30 usage this month, while usually hanging out in this 75% route rate range. Diggs has played well when targeted (10.5 YPT and 87% completions), and there's a chance his routes tick up as he gets his feet underneath him coming off ACL surgery. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart with the Titans on deck. The Patriots have a 24.5-point team total.
Kendrick Bourne
The 49ers are 1st in neutral pass rate this month with Mac Daddy throwing dimes on time. Bourne will be in the same spot as he's been in with Ricky Pearsall out and Jauan Jennings playing through every injury imaginable, leading to insane 14.5 and 13.3 expected half PPR points in his starts. The wrinkle will be if George Kittle (hamstring) returns. The 49ers' 24.5-point team total allows multiple Niners to get home.
A.J. Brown - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's just the WR33 on TE10 usage this month, due to a combination of iffy scheming, inconsistent effort, and some misplaced passes from Jalen Hurts. Things can change in an instance, but Brown has been a boom-bust WR3 dating back to the back-half of last year.
The Eagles have a mediocre 22.75-point team total against the No. 1 passing EPA defense in Minnesota. They've allowed 2.9 fewer points per game to fantasy WRs than the 2nd-best defense on a league-low 37 receptions. For reference, Puka Nacua himself has 54. Whew. The Vikings play a lot of zone coverage, and Brown's 15% targets per route against those looks are way lower than other types of coverage.
DeVonta Smith - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR28 on WR29 usage this month. The Eagles have a mediocre 22.75-point team total against the No. 1 passing EPA defense in Minnesota. They've allowed 2.9 fewer points per game to fantasy WRs than the 2nd-best defense on a league-low 37 receptions. For reference, Puka Nacua himself has 54. Whew.
Jameson Williams - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR52 on WR54 usage this month, so spin the wheel to find out if this is the week where he has his long TD. It's a good spot to spin it with the Lions projected for 29.0 points (1st) against a pass-funnel Bucs defense.
Tee Higgins - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He was averaging 8.1 expected half PPR points with Jake Browning, then had 11.5 with Joe Flacco last week. Flacco isn't a massive upgrade, but he is more willing to throw it into tight windows. This is a neutral matchup on the perimeter vs. the Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
Tre Tucker - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Brock Bowers (knee) will miss again, but it's unclear if Jakobi Meyers will also miss. Tucker has stood out on film this year with some YAC plays, and he's the WR10 on WR35 usage this month already. The Raiders will be forced into a ton of dropbacks as 11.5-point road dogs to the Chiefs, but the 17.0-point team total is obviously concerning.
Jerry Jeudy - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR74 on WR13 usage this month, making him the least efficient player in my model. Buy low or fully ignore the targets is the debate. It's probably in-between those, but this is the matchup to test the limits. The Dolphins are brutal at CB, and the Browns' 20.5-point team total will probably be the highest of the year from this point forward. Last week was a season-high 19.4 expected half PPR points, and David Njoku (knee) isn't practicing.
Jordan Whittington
He's Puka Nacua's replacement, so there is a really nice ceiling to chase if ballsy enough. Whittington has a 21% targets per route whenever Nacua hasn't been on the field dating back to last year, and last week without him, Whittington played 25-of-26 snaps. The Rams are 2nd in WR usage this month with an above-average 23.75-point team total this week. There's a "Kendrick Bourne" element to this one.
Matthew Golden
He's the WR34 on WR39 usage this month, and enters the Post Bye Rookie Bump phase. Golden keeps looking excellent on his looks, both as a downfield sprinter and a YAC threat. Last week, he had two manufactured touches, a sideline go ball completion, and a couple YAC routes over the middle. That said, he's still a part-time player in a balanced offense, so Golden has a low floor and is required to make splash plays to pay off. This is feeling very similar to Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson (ACL) might return to limited snaps this week.
Jordan Addison - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's benefited from a massive coverage bust and a major comeback mode second half, allowing him to be the WR15 on WR22 usage this month. Addison's 17% target rate paints a murkier picture with the Vikings only projected for 20.25 points against the Eagles. The good news is Philly's dropoff from CB1 to CB2 is substantial on the outside.
Rashid Shaheed
He's the WR35 on WR42 usage this month and keeps making plays on tape. The Saints are in a great spot here. The Bears are 8th-worst against fantasy WRs. The Saints have graduated from unwatchable offense territory with Spencer Rattler, and they have a fine-enough 20.75-point team total this week on the road.
Wan’Dale Robinson - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
He's the WR46 on WR44 usage this month, and the Giants have dropped to dead last in neutral pass rate over that span with the rookie duo ramming their foreheads into defenders instead. The Broncos are a very difficult test for an inexperienced offense. At least Robinson will largely avoid DPOY CB Pat Surtain while playing in the slot.
DJ Moore
He was in the hospital (balls), so we'll learn more later if he can play this week. Moore is the WR41 on WR37 usage this month.
Elic Ayomanor - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Calvin Ridley (hamstring) is hurt, so Ayomanor jumps into the top target role. Not pretty, but volume and opportunities are waiting for him. He'll have to go through CB1 Christian Gonzalez to get them, so there's no floor. Ridley was averaging 6.9 half PPR points on 9.2 expected half PPR points as the WR1 in this broken offense.
Marquise Brown
He's the WR26 on WR36 usage this month, but the return of Rashee Rice will cut his snaps again. Luckily, Brown is playing fairly well on the most pass-heavy offense with the 2nd-highest team total.
Christian Kirk - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Troy Franklin - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Jauan Jennings
Alec Pierce
Cooper Kupp - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Sterling Shepard
Travis Hunter - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Kayshon Boutte - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Malik Washington - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Luther Burden - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Michael Wilson
Jalen Coker - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em
Tez Johnson
Week 7 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
We'll learn about Kyler Murray (limited with a foot sprain) and Marvin Harrison (limited with concussion) later in the week, but McBride is eating no matter what. If both are out, then even better. Without both last week, he set a season-high with 22.4 expected half PPR points, which is the most by any TE in a week this year. The Cardinals may be forced into more quick dropbacks without their blocking TE2, starting and backup RB, and banged up defense. For game script reasons, the Packers have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to TEs.
Jake Ferguson
We'll learn about CeeDee Lamb (ankle) this week, but it sounds like he's giving it a go. That's a big deal, as his TE2 usage from this month is unlikely to hold with another elite receiver back in the mix. The Cowboys' 26.25-point team total and the MVP caliber play of Dak Prescott still give him a massive ceiling, especially with the slowest LB in the NFL on schedule here (Bobby Wagner).
Tyler Warren - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Josh Downs is in concussion protocol, and last week was a season-high 14.4 expected half PPR points for Warren. He's a monster individually, and coach Shane Steichen is using him beautifully. He gets some fun goal-line plays on occasion, but as a normal receiver, he's a recipient of leak routes and check-and-releases, both setting up big YAC opportunities. The only difference this week is All Pro candidates S Derwin James and LB Daiyan Henley will be there to track him down. The Chargers are 5th-best in receiving allowed to TEs.
George Kittle
He at least practiced on a limited basis (hamstring) on Wednesday, and if he can play, his upside is the highest of any TE. The 49ers are 1st in neutral pass rate this month because they can't run the ball and Mac Jones is playing well. Throw in a depleted defense, and the 49ers may now longer be bottom-10 in pass attempts like they were for most of Kittle's prime. Be very excited if he can get in a full practice. Just make sure to have a backup plan if waiting for Sunday Night Football because many players who just had their practice window open up end up skipping. Kittle might be the exception with the state of their WR room.
Harold Fannin
This assumes David Njoku (knee) is out after a DNP on Wednesday, and there's no evidence rookie QB Dillon Gabriel will throw the ball more than 15 yards downfield on a regular basis behind this bad OL. The ball is getting out quickly, and whenever Fannin has his hands on the ball, he's making defenders miss. It'll be interesting to see if the Browns throw Fannin into the deep end as a full-time player because his blocking against DEs has been problematic. But even in his unique role last week, the impressive 3rd-round rookie had a season-high 13.1 expected half PPR points. The Browns have a respectful 21.0-point team total against the Dolphins, who have allowed the 3rd-most yards to TEs.
Travis Kelce - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Rashee Rice is back, but he might be limited in snaps and Xavier Worthy isn't quite himself on tape right now. If there's a week to sneak another big game in for Kelce, it's this one. The Raiders are pathetic in their zone defense, and Kansas City has the OT play and familiarity to deal with Maxx Crosby. Last year, Kelce had 7-68-0 and 10-90-1 receiving lines in this matchup. A huge 28.5-point team total gives Kelce elite TD odds for the position, and he's moving well out in space on tape. Those distracted drops in the red area are clouding a quietly solid season from the engaged man. He's the TE13 on TE9 usage this month.
Tucker Kraft - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's a monster on an offense projected for 25.75 points (5th most) against the Cardinals, who are getting shredded against TEs. That's the most receptions and 2nd-most yards to the position. Kraft's TE29 usage this month is a red flag and gives him the lowest weekly floor of the must-start TEs, but this is a great spot.
Sam LaPorta - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Lions have the highest team total of the week (29.0) at home against the pass-funnel Bucs. LaPorta is only the TE21 in usage this month with many mouths to feed, but this is a good spot for TD-or-bust love.
Hunter Henry - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He had a season-low in usage (2.9 expected half PPR) last week, but still ranks as the TE7 on TE6 usage this month. Henry is less important with Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte stepping up, but Drake Maye is ascending. A healthy 24.5-point team total awaits.
Mason Taylor - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson (knee) is out, and even Josh Reynolds (hip) isn't practicing. Who are the Jets going to throw the pigskin to? Perhaps presumptuous after last week, but seriously, Taylor has to be featured if the Jets have a chance. Their team total is at 20.5 points while at home against a bad-LB Panthers defense.
Dallas Goedert - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Eagles keep running the Tush Push variant with Goedert being the underhanded target off-set the OL at the goal line, and it keeps working. Defenses have to start taking it away, but Goedert is live for more TDs than usual with that in the playbook. He's the TE2 on TE3 usage this month, and that could also be because the ground game isn't as good this year. This is a tough matchup against the psycho Vikings.
Darren Waller - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The veteran had a strong 78% route rate last week but just wasn't targeted as often against a good Chargers defense. This week is another challenge with the Browns not only having a great DL, but 2nd-round LB Carson Schwesinger is one of the best coverage backers in the NFL already. Potential for high wind makes this MIA vs. CLE game a slog.
Michael Mayer - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Brock Bowers (PCL) and Jakobi Meyers (knee) aren't practicing, and with them banged up last week, Mayer had a season-high 8.3 expected half PPR points in a comfortable win. Now, the Raiders are 11.5-point dogs in Kansas City. This has garbage time written all over it. He had an 83% route rate and 35% target rate last week, even seeing a screen.
Cade Otton - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Bucs are expecting to only have Mike Evans back, so Otton is jumping the target pecking order and is a respectable talent in general. In general, Otton has a 15% targets per route, but when Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka are both off the field since last year, that has a slight bump to 18%. Without Mike Evans, too, it's all the way up to 21%. Long story short, 17-22% targets in this offense is a win.
Zach Ertz
He's the TE30 on TE30 usage this month, but a 28.25-point team total makes Ertz a fair-enough TD-or-bust candidate still, especially with the state of the Cowboys' LB and S group. Ertz' 6.9 expected half PPR points in 4 games with Jayden Daniels would rank TE22 in usage for what it's worth.
Evan Engram - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE19 on TE13 usage this month, only running a rote on 53% of Broncos dropbacks last week.
T.J. Hockenson - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE15 on TE10 usage this month, but the entire WR room is back right now and the Vikings' OL is missing 3 starters, including their RT. Hockenson's role might be more check-and-release based, which lowers his ceiling. He had 7.1 and 5.3 expected half PPR points on a 15% target share in the 2 games with Jordan Addison back. A mediocre team total (20.75) makes him a fantasy TE2.
Kyle Pitts
The ground game and the re-found love of Drake London has hurt Pitts, even with Darnell Mooney (hamstring) out. He's the TE16 on TE19 usage this month. He at least won't face All Pro LB Fred Warner (dislocated ankle) this week.
Theo Johnson - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
My giant is at 9.3 expected half PPR points without Malik Nabers on a 21% target rate. He's about 7'4"/325 out there, making him their top receiving option in the red area if they ever get down there. The Giants are last in projected points (16.75) in Denver. He's the TE17 on TE17 usage this month.
Taysom Hill
Goal-line wild cats have already appeared.
Tyler Higbee
He only ran a route on 47% of dropbacks last week, but Higbee might see slightly more work with Puka Nacua out.
AJ Barner
Dog. He's the TE9 on TE27 usage this month, finding the end zone a couple times and being left wide open for a huge gain this past week. It's all unsustainable, but Barner is massive and capable off play action for random spike weeks. A tough task with the Texans is on deck.
Noah Fant
Mike Gesicki (IR) and Tanner Hudson (concussion) are out, so it'll be Fant in a full-time role. Only DFS and deep league members need to know this info.
Chig Okonkwo - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley (hamstring) appears doubtful.
Oronde Gadsden
Jonnu Smith - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson
Jake Tonges
We'll see if George Kittle returns after having his practice window opened with some limited practices. Without him, Tonges is the TE11 on TE7 usage.
Week 7 QB Rankings
Jayden Daniels
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Caleb Williams
Jalen Hurts
Drake Maye
This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart.
Justin Herbert
Baker Mayfield
Jared Goff
Daniel Jones
Bo Nix
Jordan Love
Justin Fields
Matthew Stafford
Jaxson Dart
C.J. Stroud
Aaron Rodgers
Sam Darnold
Trevor Lawrence
Bryce Young
Mac Jones
Carson Wentz
Michael Penix
Spencer Rattler
Dillon Gabriel
Jacoby Brissett
Joe Flacco
Tua Tagovailoa
Geno Smith
Cam Ward
Week 7 Fantasy Defenses
The best defenses are the Broncos, Patriots, Chiefs, Steelers, Packers, and Browns with honorable mentions to the Seahawks, Panthers, Eagles, and Rams.