Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 7 Recap
Week 8 RB Rankings
Jonathan Taylor - 119.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB2 usage this month, and this is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart and our eye balls. The Colts are projected for the most points (30.75) at home against the Titans. His last two games against them: 17-102-3 and 29-218-3. Seems good.
Bijan Robinson
He's the RB2 on RB6 usage this month, and this is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart and our eye balls. The Dolphins haven't stopped anyone, allowing the most rushing yards per game to RBs (128) and the 7th-most receiving yards to RBs. Super star RBs Quinshon Judkins (26.4 half PPR), Kimani Vidal (21.3), and Rico Dowdle (30.9) have recently been clear RB1s against them. The Falcons are 6th in projected points (25.75).
Christian McCaffrey
He's the RB3 on RB1 usage this month, and last week was his best as a pure rusher. Is that a coincidence with George Kittle back? The 49ers are projected for 20.25 points against the DL-dominant Texans, who have also allowed the fewest receiving yards to RBs. They haven't faced CMC for what it's worth, but this is his worst spot of the year.
Derrick Henry
The Ravens have a 28.25-point team total this week with Lamar Jackson (hamstring) due back. In games under 20 team points, Henry is only averaging 10.8 half PPR points. But when they are in that 21-31 zone, then he's up to 20.0 half PPR points in a Baltimore uniform. Despite a slow start, it's better to lean into the positivity around the Ravens with most of their injured players back in the mix. The Bears have been better on defense recently but against the Commanders and Saints, while they were gashed by Ashton Jeanty (34.5 half PPR) and others before the bye.
Josh Jacobs
There's been a clear top-4 fantasy RBs this month. In fact, he's the RB1 on RB5 usage. This isn't the cleanest matchup in Pittsburgh with a 23.75-point team total. The Steelers aren't impressive on defense on a play-by-play basis, but these are two slow-paced offenses.
James Cook - 94.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Two down weeks and a bye have softened the Cook's outlook, but he's been a clear RB1 over a bigger sample and the Bills are 5th in projected points (26.5) against the Panthers as 7.5-point favorites. Carolina has been top-10 against fantasy RBs this year after spending the entire offseason upgrading the DL. This isn't the easy matchup that it was previously, but the LBs can be had and Cook is a weapon as a receiver whenever they scheme him up.
De'Von Achane - 98.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week's game in Cleveland with weather and Tua Tagovailoa bottoming out should be the outlier. It's a fairer matchup in Atlanta this time around, so I'm putting more faith into Weeks 1-6 when Achane was averaging 18.1 half PPR points on 14.5 expected half PPR points. The Falcons are worse against the run than pass, but Atlanta is a well-coached, funky defense. Maybe the answer is even more RB screens and swings to calm Tua back down.
Saquon Barkley - 100.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart with the Giants grading out as the worst in the metric. Barkley needs it desperately. He's being squeezed in a few ways. His explosive play rate is way down, largely because the yards before contact is 16th compared to 1st last year. Losing LG Landon Dickerson and C Cam Jurgens to injuries, plus downgrading from RG Mehki Becton this offseason have hurt. The Eagles also are using either Jalen Hurts or Dallas Goedert at the goal line, so Barkley's spike weeks are largely about scoring from 5+ yards out. All in all, the Eagles are 31st in RB usage this month and have been obviously better through the air than on the ground. He's the RB23 on RB25 usage this month.
Javonte Williams - 81.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB10 on RB3 usage this month, and the OL is getting healthy again and is far safer with CeeDee Lamb back as well. It's an elite offense, and Williams is one of the few bellcows in the NFL. This is clearly sustainable. That said, this is a difficult matchup in Denver, so the Dallas team total is a lot lower than normal (23.5 points) and the Broncos are 12th-best against the position. At least it's the fastest-paced game of the week.
Rachaad White
He's averaging 14.1 expected half PPR points in his 3 starts, equivalent of RB11 usage, and Bucky Irving (shoulder) has been ruled out already. The Bucs have leaned on RBs to pick up the slack of injured WRs, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will miss this next week. A 25.5-point team total against the Saints is next. It's a great spot. New Orleans has allowed 5 different RBs to reach 16+ half PPR points this season.
Cam Skattebo - 82.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB9 on RB4 usage this month, even with Tyrone Tracy as the backup again. The Giants have some juice, an elite LT with Andrew Thomas to run behind, and a top-5 neutral run rate. That buoys his own projection even with Giants projected for the 3rd-fewest implied points (18.25) in Philadelphia. Just two weeks ago, Skattebo had 110 total yards with 3 rushing TDs against them. Why the hell are they already facing each other by the way???
D'Andre Swift - 80.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB5 on RB8 usage this month, and since the bye, the outside zone scheme is on fire. Swift is seeing things more clearly, and the OL/TE/WR group is blocking very well. Swift will be a factor as a receiver, too. This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart.
Quinshon Judkins - 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the RB13 on RB7 usage this month, and it's clear that he'll excel whenever given positive game script and then fade away when trailing. Judkins continues to impress on film despite bad QB and OL play around him. Unfortunately, this is another brutal spot for him. The Browns are worst in projected points (16.75) as 7-point road dogs to the Patriots, who are 5th-best against fantasy RBs on a 3.2 YPC. Cleveland will lean on Judkins for as long as possible, but in clear negative game scripts, Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson will see more snaps. He's a boom-bust RB2 with an obvious ceiling.
J.K. Dobbins
This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart, and the Broncos are 4th in team total (27.0) at home against the Cowboys, who are 6th worst against the position. Dobbins has been the RB29 on RB30 usage this month with the offense largely stalling out, but he's still the clear lead back with R.J. Harvey only mixing in. This is a week to lean on Dobbins.
Chase Brown
Things immediately look so much better with Joe Flacco. Brown had 13.0 expected half PPR points last week after averaging 9.8 in the previous 4 games. The Bengals are also projected for a healthy 25.5 points at home against the winless Jets, so game script is even on his side as 6.5-point favorites. New York has faced the most RB carries this year because of that.
Kimani Vidal - 72.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In two starts, Vidal is at 20.2 and 13.5 expected half PPR points (low-end RB1 usage). Hassan Haskins (hamstring) was a DNP on Monday ahead of a short week, and he's been left in the dust even before that injury. Things will look better if LT Joe Alt and RT Trey Pipkins can return from injury this week.
Breece Hall
The Jets' owner talking shit on his own QB likely means we'll see Tyrod Taylor this week. He's likely better for Hall, as the offense can be a little less boom-bust and when they do get to the goal line, it'll be more RB focused than QB designed run focused. Hall has only been the RB24 on RB22 usage this month during this chaos, and he hasn't looked like the same explosive back as he did earlier in his career. This is an eruption spot per the rushing EPA chart against the Bengals to turn things around.
Jaylen Warren - 78.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
After a split in his return, Warren stole the backfield last week as he did before his absence. If we remove his outlier down week coming off injury and bye, then Warren is averaging 15.4 expected half PPR points in 4 starts, equivalent to RB7 usage. The Steelers are only projected for 20.75 points at home against the Packers this week, however, and Green Bay is 3rd-best against the position. They've only allowed 2 RBs to clear 10.0 half PPR points this year.
Isiah Pacheco
We'll see if Kareem Hunt (ankle) plays, but if not, Pacheo is in a great spot. He's starting to pop on film behind a very strong OL, and Brashard Smith isn't a real threat to steal many between-tackles touches if Hunt misses. Pacheco could be highly underrated now that the Chiefs offense is fully clicking. They're projected for the 2nd-most points (29.0) this week vs. the Commanders, and they're also 2nd in RB usage this month.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 80.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was a season-high 14.2 expected half PPR points and he was playing about 90% of the snaps before garbage time, and even TreVeyon Henderson was out-touched late by a UDFA. The Patriots want to run the ball between the tackles, and Henderson isn't physical enough to handle that. If last week's usage holds, Stevenson is underrated, as that translates to RB12 usage. This will be a far tougher challenge with the Browns on deck. The team total is "only" 23.75 points, and Cleveland is the best fantasy RB defense while only allowing 3.5 YPC.
Rico Dowdle
The Panthers are at 21.7 expected half PPR points divvied up between their RBs this month, and they chose to go drive-by-drive between Dowdle (9.7 expected half PPR points) and Chuba Hubbard (10.5), who actually started last week. That leaves them with RB3 usage if it holds, and I think it will. The matchup this week against the Bills is a spot to lean into the ground game, as they've been bottom-5 in rushing EPA on defense. That said, if the Panthers can't keep things close, then a 50/50 backfield split leaves a low floor. The Panthers' team total is only at 19.0.
Chuba Hubbard
See Rico Dowdle above.
Alvin Kamara
No Kendre Miller (ACL) leaves Kamara in a bigger role unless 6th-round rookie Devin Neal (5'11"/213) begins making noise. He's been awfully inefficient behind a terrible OL, who just lost their above-average C this week. Kamara is top-15 in usage this month but only the RB37 in actual points. New play-caller Kellen Moore is doing a good job overall, which has netted fewer receptions for Kamara. He's at a career-low 3.6 receptions and 18 receiving yards per game right now. He'll need those to tick upwards against a Bucs rushing defense that remains the best in the NFL, while allowing the most receiving yards to RBs. That's the thing to keep him in RB2 rankings.
Jordan Mason
Aaron Jones is expected to return despite it being a short week. Mason had been the RB23 in usage this month, but in the first two games, Mason had 9.8 and 6.5 expected half PPR points in a more evenly-split committee. A below-average 20.75-point team total on the road hurts Mason's baseline, but the Chargers have been run on recently with Khalil Mack missing or playing through injury. I'm expecting Mason to remain the goal line back but lose a little bit more of the base work. He wasn't playing passing downs either way.
Woody Marks
The Texans are using Nick Chubb in the early-down role (RB40 usage this month), and then Marks as the pass-game back as expected coming off the Post Bye Rookie Bump. It's a tough spot for upside, but Marks will profile better when the Texans are trailing. Last week was a season-high 15.8 expected half PPR points for the rookie, with a lot of that coming down multiple scores in the second half. This is a projected close game (-1.5 home favorites) against a feisty Niners defense without two All Pros, LB Fred Warner and EDGE Nick Bosa. He's quietly the RB20 in usage this month and there's a chance Nico Collins (concussion) can't suit up on a shorter week. That's potentially an extra target or more carries in general here.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
He's too game-script dependent to fully trust, as we saw in the 2nd half last year. With a backup QB and funky game scripts this month, Bill is only the RB20 on RB37 usage. A lowly 18.5-point team total (4th lowest) awaits in Kansas City as 10.5-point dogs with Marcus Mariota projected at QB. Teams facing the Chiefs are only averaging 16.8 carries per game, the 3rd-fewest.
Nick Chubb
See Woody Marks above.
Tyler Allgeier
In 8 games with Bijan Robinson when the Falcons won by 6+ points, Allgeier is averaging 9.1 half PPR points. In the other 15 games, that's just 4.4 points. The good news is the Falcons are 7-point home favorites to the Dolphins on a strong 25.75-point team total. Miami is also 5th-worst against the position on a league-worst 128 rushing yards allowed per game to RBs. This is a spot to out-play his RB39 on RB42 usage this month.
Aaron Jones
He's returning from injury on a short week and will likely take on a 1b role behind Jordan Mason, as the primary pass-catching back. In Week 1, that led to just 6.9 expected half PPR points, and this is another tough spot with the Vikings only projected for 20.25 points. The good news is the Chargers play a lot of zone, and those looks increase RB receptions in general.
Brashard Smith
Last week was a season-high 19.1 expected half PPR points. Of course, that's very positive and a sign of just how good this Chiefs offense is again. Kansas City is 2nd in projected points this week. That said, Smith also benefited from being up 31 points in that 4th quarter when he ran out the clock with the 2nd-stringers and also benefited from extra touches in the 2-minute drill and after Kareem Hunt (ankle) left. Smith is a PPR asset if Hunt misses again, but he is reliant on that happening even if some of the Jerick McKinnon sirens are quietly turning on.
Kyle Monangai
Since their bye, the Bears have been at 48% neutral pass rate and have cleaned up their ground game in general. It's been a large majority of outside zone with well-timed wrinkles off that. It's largely been D'Andre Swift as the lead back, but Day 3 rookie Monangai did have a season-high 13.6 expected half PPR points last week and it wasn't just garbage time usage. For at least last week, it was a 2-back rotation, and the tape was fantastic. The Bears have a legit play caller and OL right now.
Tony Pollard - 58.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Titans are operating a 2-back committee now that Tyjae Spears is healthy again. Over the past 2 weeks, Pollard is at 7.7 expected half PPR points per game versus Spears' 6.5. Yikes. As usual, Tennessee has the lowest team total of the week (16.75 points).
RJ Harvey
The 2nd-round rookie is barely playing, sitting at 4.9 half PPR on 4.6 expected half PPR points if we remove his outlier big game (17.8 HPPR on 15.3 exp HPPR). That was a 28-3 win over the Bengals in Week 4. The good news is the Broncos are 4th in projected points (27.0) versus the Cowboys, as 3.5-point favorites. That's a fairly similar outlook to that outlier game. Additionally, Dallas LBs have been carved apart, so maybe Harvey gets a couple schemed touches through the air or on perimeter runs this week.
Isaiah Davis
Tyjae Spears
Kenneth Gainwell
Jeremy McNichols
Tyrone Tracy
Justice Hill
Jerome Ford
Zavier Scott
Week 8 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 89.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart and our eye balls. Sauce Gardner (concussion) didn't practice on Wednesday on top of things for the Jets. The Bengals are back to an above-average 25.5-point team total this week, and Joe Flacco knows one play in the book: throw it to Ja'Marr and laugh.
Justin Jefferson - 80.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Whenever you see Justin Jefferson on any "buy low" chart, buy. That's Jefferson here, in terms of expected vs. actual TDs based on his usage.
Emeka Egbuka - 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart against the Saints, and he won't have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to compete with. The Bucs' 25.25-point team total is still very strong, and Egbuka looked totally fine on tape last week. In fact, Egbuka had a season-high 18.1 expected half PPR points. Baker Mayfield simply missed him on a couple of downfield throws. That should regress here.
Rashee Rice - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In his debut, Rice was kept to 50% routes through 3 quarters, but he had 18.9 expected half PPR points on a ridiculous 10 targets, a handful of which were in the red zone. He's going to be the manufactured touch and crossing route game as the primary on most of his limited snaps as he gets ramped up. The Chiefs, meanwhile, had their highest neutral pass rate of the year last week and project for the 2nd-most projected points this week. On top of all that, this is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart. The Commanders have allowed the most receiving yards to WRs lined up in the slot.
CeeDee Lamb - 73.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
In healthy games, Lamb is averaging 16.6 half PPR points on 14.2 expected. That'll do. Hopefully Lamb dodges Patrick Surtain, who typically sticks outside. The only time Surtain has played more than 5 snaps as a slot corner was in Week 17 last year against Ja'Marr Chase.
Courtland Sutton - 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart and our eye balls. The Cowboys have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs lined up on the outside, and that's where Sutton lines up on every snap. He'll be the primary read on a lot of the normal dropback game, and it's possible Sean Payton leans into that more in this one than in previous "Mickey Mouse" game plans.
Drake London - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR3 usage this month, but it's been a rollercoaster with a lot of splits. I've seen home/road splits and found these Darnell Mooney splits, too: 19.6 expected half PPR points without him versus 8.8 with him. It's likely all noise. London is averaging 13.0 HPPR on 14.2 expected HPPR on the year, which is sure-fire WR1 usage. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart with an above-average 26.0 team total at home against the Dolphins, who are worse as a whole than they are against fantasy WRs themselves.
A.J. Brown - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Teams facing the Giants chose to pass the ball at the 6th-highest rate, and on top of that, they play man coverage at a top-5 rate. When offenses face man coverage, they pass to their WRs at a 70% rate, far higher than against zone coverage. Brown's splits are particularly strong against man coverage, too. This is the best spot he's been in all year long. He had a 6-80-0 on 9 targets in Week 6 against them.
Zay Flowers - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Ravens are projected for 27.75 points this week with Lamar Jackson back. With him in Weeks 1-2, Flowers had back-to-back games with an elite 14.8 expected half PPR points on elite target shares. Flowers' size in the red area makes him a bit squeezed for scores, but this was beginning to be a breakout season for the 3rd-year pro. There's no reason to not believe in it now. The Bears are allowing an absurd 15.1 yards per reception to WRs this year without CB1 Jaylon Johnson.
Chris Olave - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR13 on WR12 usage this month and finally cashed in those regression checks last week, with 3 explosives. Funny enough, all 3 of them came from the slot, something added to the playbook by Kellen Moore. Olave is the focus of trade and long-term extension talks because he's really good and transforming his game from pure deep threat to a full route tree receiver. The Saints have a higher-than-normal 21.25-point team total this week against the pass-funnel Bucs. He is dealing with an ankle injury, so stay tuned.
Jaylen Waddle - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Falcons have allowed the fewest yards to WRs lined up on the outside because CB1 A.J. Terrell is playing very well and the scheme is frightening to figure out. It'll be a challenge for the Dolphins in general, but this is in a dome and Waddle is the clear-cut top target with Darren Waller (IR) out. Last week should be the outlier in weather against the Browns.
Michael Pittman - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR17 usage this month, and this is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart.
DeVonta Smith - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Once again, Smith is one of the best downfield receivers in the game. We saw it last week in particular, but on the entire season, he's caught 67% of his 15+ air yard targets. This is another spot to take advantage of that, with the Giants playing more man coverage than most defenses and their 2nd-worst ranking in yards to WRs lined up in the slot.
Tee Higgins - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase was the headliner, but Higgins is also a beneficiary of the clear Joe Flacco upgrade. In fact, the Bengals are immediately 3rd in WR usage this month and Higgins himself is the WR27 on WR13 usage. Flacco is more likely to chuck it up than Jake Browning was, which is why Higgins set a season-high in usage with 16.3 expected half PPR points last week. The Bengals are 7th in projected points this week against a struggling Jets defense without Sauce Gardner.
Rome Odunze - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The box scores have disappointed recently, but there were some called back big plays and unfortunate game scripts included. The Bears are 6.5-point dogs to the Ravens this week and will likely be back to above-average dropbacks. In the normal dropback game, it's been all Odunze, and the Ravens' outside corners have been pretty up-and-down this year.
Ladd McConkey - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR21 on WR8 usage this month and is coming off a season-high 23.3 expected half PPR points last week. The Chargers won't be in that heavy negative game script often and aren't supposed to be in it this week (3.5-point favorites), but the Chargers are expected to get back both OTs and have been 1st in WR usage the entire year. McConkey remains my favorite mix of YAC ability and talent of the trio. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most yards after catch per reception this year.
Keenan Allen - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's only 8 receptions away from setting the Chargers record for most franchise receptions, and it's a home game (that I'm attending). Let's get those tonight!!! Beyond that narrative, this is a spot to lean into a veteran against a complicated Vikings defense. In his 3 most recent games against DC Brian Flores, he's put up insane numbers; 6-82-1 on 13 targets (Bears), 9-86-1 on 15 targets (Bears), and 18-215-0 on 20 targets (Chargers). He's the WR25 on WR10 usage this month.
Quentin Johnston - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR16 on WR19 usage this month. Johnston's downfield role may be volatile throughout the year, but it's an extremely valuable role. The matchup on paper is difficult if looking at this year's stats only, but the Vikings allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last year and showed some vulnerabilities last week against the Eagles in ways that Johnston wins.
George Pickens - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He'll likely see All Pro CB1 Patrick Surtain as the outside receiver. Pickens had season-lows in usage against Sauce Gardner and Quinyon Mitchell (5.7 expected half PPR points) in similar matchups, so this could be tough sledding unless Surtain plays in the slot more than usual to match up with CeeDee Lamb. This assumes Pickens gets a few high-value chances but has fewer looks than normal based on matchup.
Stefon Diggs - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR17 on WR23 usage this month on a clearly ascending Patriots' pass-funnel offense. They can't run the ball at all, and the Browns won't let that change here. Diggs will be moved around the field, so he should dodge CB1 Denzel Ward plenty. An above-average 23.75-point team total is worth believing in, even if there are super stars on the other side of the ball.
DK Metcalf - 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR9 on WR37 usage this month.
Xavier Worthy - 54.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Commanders have allowed more yards on 15+ air yard targets than anyone, so it's a great matchup for Worthy, who should start playing faster as more weeks pass since his shoulder and ankle injuries. Worthy is the downfield target in the offense and played 84% routes last week before garbage time as the clear WR1 in snaps. Rashee Rice will steal the manufactured touches Worthy was getting earlier on, but the Chiefs are 2nd in projected points this week and are coming off a wild 82% neutral pass rate last week. This is MVP Mahomes. Ride the rollercoaster even if there are downs. He's the WR32 on WR22 usage this month while dealing with those nagging injuries.
Romeo Doubs - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Steelers have allowed the 4th-most yards to WRs under 10 air yards, which is more of his game than Matthew Golden and Christian Watson. Also, he's underrated. This month, Doubs is the WR10 on WR9 usage. Whew.
Jordan Addison - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR12 on WR11 usage this month, thanks to some wild game scripts, early-game turnovers from Carson Wentz, and a huge busted coverage reception. Addison (21% targets) remains a weapon on downfield and intermediate routes in an aggressive offense, but it's a boom-bust profile on a team projected for just 20.25 points this week on a short week across the country. The Chargers are 5th best against fantasy WRs so far, and EDGE1 Khalil Mack is back.
Tetairoa McMillan - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR31 on WR33 usage this month, as the Panthers have dramatically turned to their RBs instead of being top-5 in neutral pass rate as they were for a stretch. There isn't much of a projection change with Andy Dalton instead of Bryce Young, but there's hope the Panthers are trailing by enough points to the Bills that they're forced into more 2nd-half dropbacks.
Deebo Samuel
We'll go over the Commanders later on with more practice data.
Jerry Jeudy - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Last week was predictably a season-low in usage (5.8 expected half PPR points) in weather and with a lead at home. None of those things apply here. The Patriots have a very good CB1 in Christian Gonzalez, but the Browns are likely to drop back enough for Jeudy to get real chances again. The entire season has been ugly for Jeudy, but he is the WR16 in usage this month for what it's worth and has had huge outings previously.
Alec Pierce
He's the WR40 on WR26 usage this month, and this is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart. The Colts are 1st in projected points this week.
Khalil Shakir - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR36 on WR40 usage this month and should be fully healed from his training camp injury coming out of the bye.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR33 on WR25 usage this month.
Rashid Shaheed - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR37 on WR34 usage this month.
Darnell Mooney
In his 3 healthy games this year, Mooney is at 9.4 expected half PPR points, which is equivalent to WR33 usage. His tape looked good again last week, after struggling with a pair of injuries earlier on. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart, and Mooney was a fantasy WR3 last year.
Tez Johnson - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Johnson had a season-high 12.7 expected half PPR points while in comeback mode against the Lions. He scored a TD on a screen, showing some nice YAC ability, and then has scored on big plays down the field in other outings. Johnson is a fun player in a potent offense projected for 25.25 points.
Matthew Golden - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR41 on WR48 usage this month with 8.1 and 4.4 expected half PPR points since his Post-Bye Rookie Bump. The Packers will have Christian Watson to add to the rotation this week, too. Golden will have huge touchdowns this year, but they'll be extremely hard to predict and he's not a fantasy asset otherwise. The Steelers defense feels slow on tape, so this isn't a bad spot to hope one of them comes through.
Troy Franklin - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR52 on WR18 usage this month and is coming off a season-high 19.0 expected half PPR points last week. Did they work? No. Should it continue? No. But Sean Payton seems to have a fascination, and the Cowboys can't stop anyone. The Broncos have a monster 27.0-point team total at home.
DJ Moore - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR53 on WR47 usage this month.
Keon Coleman - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR48 on WR43 usage this month.
Jauan Jennings
He's the WR87 on WR52 usage this month, but Jennings is at least practicing in full again after dealing with various injuries earlier on. There should be more pass attempts this week against the Texans, but that also means All Pro CB Derek Stingley on occasion.
Kendrick Bourne
He's the WR30 on WR39 usage this month and is coming off just 2.4 expected half PPR points last week with the Niners' run game alive and George Kittle back. There should be more pass attempts this week against the Texans, but that also means All Pro CB Derek Stingley on occasion.
Terry McLaurin
The Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards on 15+ air yard targets, and it's Marcus Mariota at QB.
Sterling Shepard - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He had a season-high 9.4 expected half PP points last week without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin while chasing points to the Lions. It's another huge team total (25.25) to go upside hunting in. Shepard is the experienced slot receiver of the offense.
Xavier Legette - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Andy Dalton had 8 dropbacks last week. Legette caught 4 passes on them, including two downfield shots. Dalton fed his WRs last year, too, and they'll likely need to pivot to the pass against the Bills, who are 7.5-point favorites. He's the WR26 on WR41 usage this month.
Jayden Higgins - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This assumes Nico Collins (concussion) doesn't play. More notes later.
Josh Downs - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA chart.
Elic Ayomanor
This assumes Calvin Ridley doesn't play. More notes later.
Kayshon Boutte - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The breakout X receiver has converted a higher rate of his downfield targets (82%) than anyone else in the NFL. That's a positive in that it's a real positive for the offense, but it's also an unsustainable rate. It'll be harder to hit these deep passes against CB1 Denzel Ward and the Browns' pass rush.
Marvin Mims - 34.5 total yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR39 on WR51 usage this month.
Rashod Bateman
Josh Reynolds
Marquise Brown - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 8 TE Rankings
Tyler Warren - 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR2 on WR4 usage this month, and the Colts are projected for 30.75 points, by far the most of the week. Enough said.
Tucker Kraft - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The Steelers are having issues over the middle with some communication issues, partially explaining why they're 3rd-worst against fantasy TEs this year. Kraft is a machine whenever targeted, and the Packers are only 3-point favorites here. He's the TE7 on TE10 usage this month, coming off a season-high 13.4 expected half PPR points last week. He's a top-5 all-around TE on tape; maybe that's McBride, Kittle, Kraft, Goedert, Warren in that order.
George Kittle
In his return, Kittle ran 86% of the routes, but things didn't break his way. He seemed to be moving fine on film and was completely left off the practice report on Wednesday. The 49ers won't have WR Ricky Pearsall again, and Mac Jones is handling himself well in place of Brock Purdy. Kittle's upside is the highest of the position with Trey McBride on bye. It's just about catching the correct game script. I don't expect the 49ers to be as run-heavy against the Texans DL as they were last week against the tiny Falcons DL. That said, the Texans haven't allowed a TE to reach 10 half PPR points this week... They also haven't faced Kittle.
Jake Ferguson - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the WR1 on WR2 usage this month, but that was without CeeDee Lamb for most of the time. He held the line last week, however, with a red zone conversion. The Broncos are a stiffer test (23.5 team total), but his individual matchup is relatively weakest versus the WRs.
Travis Kelce - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The target competition is fully here, and it sent Kelce to a season-low 3.9 expected half PPR points last week in a blowout victory. There will be more bust weeks moving forward, but do not undersell his ceiling in a suddenly elite offense. The Chiefs are projected for 29.5 points (2nd most) at home against slow LB Bobby Wagner and company. The Commanders have allowed 3 different TEs to reach 15.0 half PPR points this year. That's hard to do.
Dallas Goedert - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Thanks to some designed goal-line touchdowns, he's the TE4 on TE3 usage. Those could continue or completely disappear, as defenses adjust for that wrinkle. Goedert did just blow up against the Giants in Week 6 with a 9-110-1 receiving line, and they are relatively weak at LB.
Cade Otton - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It was a season-high 8.6 expected half PPR points last week with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans injured. It'll be the same situation here, which means he's likely to have TE1 usage on a team projected for an above-average 25.25 points.
Kyle Pitts - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE12 on TE7 usage this month, but Drake London and Darnell Mooney are both healthy now, so he's more of a boom-bust TE1/2 now. The good news is the Falcons have an elite 26.0 team total with the Dolphins on deck. They've allowed the 5th-most yards to TEs.
Oronde Gadsden - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's so fun. There's a Darren Waller element to his YAC and downfield route ability, and the Chargers are starting to trust him in more situations. Last week is impossible to repeat, as they were in negative game script the entire outing, but with the offense looking more Air Raid-y now, there's a place for a slot-based TE like Gadsden. He's being used in ways Mark Andrews was with OC Greg Roman a long time ago. Gadsden is as boom-bust as it gets with 3 legit WRs to compete with. The Vikings have been good against the position throughout the DC Brian Flores era, and it can be a lot to handle for a rookie with how much rotation they use.
Harold Fannin
It's too early to tell if David Njoku (limited) will return, but without him last week, Fannin was at 83% snaps and 86% routes, so there's real potential if he misses and the Browns return to a negative game script. The Browns are 7-point dogs against a top-5 rushing defense in New England, who hasn't faced many TE-heavy offenses yet but did allow Brock Bowers and Dalton Kincaid to reach 100+ yards. This is a buy low opportunity if Njoku is out, as he's been the TE18 on TE6 usage this month.
Dalton Kincaid
He's the TE5 on TE25 usage this month, and the team is coming off a bye. They've been to conservative, sitting at 31st in neutral pass rate this month, so there's a chance his overall targets tick up moving forward. The Bills defense regressing is helping his fantasy case. Carolina's defense has been stout against the run recently and 4th-worst against fantasy TEs. 4 different TEs have reached 10+ half PPR points already.
Update: He's limited with that oblique injury from previous weeks.
Dalton Schultz
There have been a ton of TE injuries for the Texans, and Schultz has acclimated as a go-to option in negative game scripts. He had a season-high 10.6 expected half PPR points last week and is now the TE13 on TE5 usage this month. Nico Collins (concussion) is likely out now.
Evan Engram - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
He's the TE16 on TE11 usage this month, and the Broncos are 4th in projected points this week against these worrisome Cowboys LB group. Dallas has allowed the 7th-most receptions to TEs.
Colston Loveland
This assumes Cole Kmet (back, DNP) doesn't play obviously. Loveland is coming off a season-high 6.0 expected half PPR points last week after Kmet left (85% snaps), and there's a very-high ceiling to chase with Loveland's skillset if he's moved into a full-time role. The Bears are beginning to be more balanced on offense, in ways that OC Ben Johnson was with the Lions. Of note, Sam LaPorta was the TE4 from Week 8 on as a rookie in this offense.
Mason Taylor
It's unclear if it'll be Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields, but Taylor is undeniably better for the underneath pass game. It'll be another opportunity for Taylor to be a first-read target with Garrett Wilson (knee) likely out again. The offense has been so terrible that he's still only the TE23 on TE17 usage this month. The Jets have a 19.0 team total against the Bengals, who are weak over the middle with a strong outside CB1. It's a good matchup for him. The Bengals have allowed 18.8 half PPR points per game to TEs, which is 3.4 higher than the 2nd-worst defense.
Mark Andrews - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
The return of Lamar Jackson has the team total back to 28 points, so we're back to TD-or-bust Andrews. Unfortunately, Andrews is back to dealing with Isaiah Likely in the rotation. In fact, Andrews ran fewer routes than Likely in their previous game (86% to 73%).
Hunter Henry - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
It's been an up-and-down season for Henry, who is only the TE22 on TE28 usage this month with both Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte popping off. The offense can't run the ball and won't be able to against the Browns most likely, so extra targets over the middle are possible. Expect impressive 2nd-round LB Carson Schwesinger to match up with Henry often.
Zach Ertz
Isaiah Likely
T.J. Hockenson - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Theo Johnson - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick'em.
Noah Fant
Week 8 QB Rankings
Notes coming later on.
Patrick Mahomes - 23.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Josh Allen - 22.8 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Lamar Jackson - 22.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Jalen Hurts - 20.7 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Bo Nix - 21.2 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Justin Herbert - 20.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Daniel Jones - 20.2 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Baker Mayfield - 19.8 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Drake Maye - 18.3 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Dak Prescott - 17.9 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Caleb Williams - 16.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Joe Flacco - 18.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Jordan Love - 18.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Carson Wentz - 16.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Jaxson Dart - 15.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Marcus Mariota - 14.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Aaron Rodgers - 15.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Spencer Rattler - 16.2 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
C.J. Stroud
Mac Jones
Michael Penix - 15.7 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Andy Dalton - 14.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Tua Tagovailoa - 13.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Tyrod Taylor
Dillon Gabriel - 11.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Cam Ward - 11.4 fantasy points in Underdog Pick'em.
Week 8 Fantasy DEFs
The best defenses of the week are the Colts, Patriots, Chiefs, Falcons, Bengals, Giants, and Chargers with honorable mentions to the Bucs, Bills, Texans, and Packers.