Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Post Week 3

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Week 3 Regression Candidates

• RB (Positive Regression) - Joe Mixon (-9.6 half PPR over expected), Javonte Williams (-4.5), Alvin Kamara (-4.4), Leonard Fournette (-4.1), James Conner (-4.1), A.J. Dillon (-3.3), Josh Jacobs (-3.3), Jonathan Taylor (-2.8).

• RB (Negative Regression) - D'Andre Swift (+6.8), Nick Chubb (+5.8), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+5.6), Saquon Barkley (+3.9), Cordarrelle Patterson (+3.9), Aaron Jones (+3.7), James Robinson (+3.4).

• WR (Positive Regression) - Brandin Cooks (-5.6), Garrett Wilson (-4.8), Davante Adams (-4.4), Ja'Marr Chase (-4.2), Elijah Moore (-3.9), Chase Claypool (-3.5), Diontae Johnson (-3.3), DK Metcalf (-3.3).

• WR (Negative Regression) - Tyreek Hill (+6.6), Stefon Diggs (+6.3), Rashod Bateman (+6.3), Devin Duvernay (+5.7), Jaylen Waddle (+5.4), Cooper Kupp (+5.1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+5.1), Tyler Boyd (+4.0).

• TE (Positive Regression) - Zach Ertz (-5.4), Hayden Hurst (-3.3), Tyler Higbee (-2.7), Kyle Pitts (-2.6), Irv Smith (-2.4), Darren Waller (-2.3).

• TE (Negative Regression) - Dallas Goedert (+3.6).