Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Post Week 4

You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 4 Regression Candidates

• RB (Positive Regression) - Joe Mixon (-9.7 half PPR over expected), Jonathan Taylor (-4.9), Alvin Kamara (-4.4), James Conner (-4.3), A.J. Dillon (-3.4).

• RB (Negative Regression) - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+5.9), Nick Chubb (+4.9), Rashaad Penny (+3.3), Aaron Jones (+3.0), Saquon Barkley (+3.0).

• WR (Positive Regression) - Rondale Moore (-6.1), Davante Adams (-4.0), Garrett Wilson (-3.8), Chris Godwin (-3.5), Diontae Johnson (-3.4), Chase Claypool (-3.4), Allen Robinson (-3.3).

• WR (Negative Regression) - Mike Evans (+6.3), Tee Higgins (+5.1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+5.1), Tyreek Hill (+4.9), Stefon Diggs (+4.6).

• TE (Positive Regression) - Tyler Higbee (-3.7), Zach Ertz (-3.2), Cameron Brate (-3.0), Darren Waller (-2.9), Kyle Pitts (-2.7).

• TE (Negative Regression) - Will Dissly (+4.8), Dallas Goedert (+3.1).

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

3.0 targets per game to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.