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Fantasy Usage Model - Week 16 NFL Recap

Dec 27th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 16 Recap

Data only from Weeks 13-16. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 17 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - Travis Etienne (-5.2 half PPR over expected), Royce Freeman (-4.8), Joe Mixon (-4.5), D'Andre Swift (-4.0), Zack Moss (-3.5), D'Onta Foreman (-3.4), Nick Chubb (-3.0).

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Jerick McKinnon (+7.7), Cam Akers (+5.0), James Conner (+4.3), A.J. Dillon (+4.0), Chuba Hubbard (+3.4), J.K. Dobbins (+3.1), David Montgomery (+3.1).

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Corey Davis (-6.8), DeAndre Hopkins (-5.4), Marquise Brown (-4.4), Amari Cooper (-4.3), TuTu Atwell (-4.3), Elijah Moore (-3.5), Allen Lazard (-3.3), Mike Evans (-3.1), Drake London (-2.9), Michael Pittman (-2.9).

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Jaylen Waddle (+8.2), DeVonta Smith (+6.9), CeeDee Lamb (+6.3), A.J. Bornw (+5.7), Jerry Jeudy (+5.6), D.J. Chark (+5.2), Mike Williams (+4.9), Terry McLaurin (+4.8), Jahan Dotson (+4.3), Tee Higgins (+4.1).

  • TE (Positive Regression) - David Njoku (-4.4), Mark Andrews (-2.7), Cade Otton (-2.6).

  • TE (Negative Regression) - George Kittle (+7.6), Evan Engram (+5.0), Darren Waller (+4.2), Juwan Johnson (+4.2).

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 13-16. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 5 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.