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Fantasy Usage Model - Week 7 NFL Recap

Oct 25th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Post Week 7

Data only from Weeks 4-7. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 7 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - Jonathan Taylor (-5.7 half PPR over expected), Najee Harris (-3.4), Brian Robinson (-2.9), Joe Mixon (-2.8).

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Josh Jacobs (+12.0), Austin Ekeler (+8.5), Gus Edwards (+5.9), Ken Walker (+5.6), Nick Chubb (+4.5).

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Diontae Johnson (-6.5), Chris Godwin (-4.4), Zay Jones (-4.2), Curtis Samuel (-4.1), Courtland Sutton (-3.8), Rondale Moore (-2.9), Isaiah McKenzie (-2.7), Josh Palmer (-2.7), Romeo Doubs (-2.7), Adam Thielen (-2.5).

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Gabe Davis (+7.8), Jakobi Meyers (+7.4), Mecole Hardman (+5.8), Tyler Boyd (+3.7), JuJu Smith-Schuster (+3.2), Brandon Aiyuk (+2.4).

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Brevin Jordan (-8.1), Tyler Higbee (-3.1), Gerald Everett (-2.2).

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Travis Kelce (+4.7), T.J. Hockenson (+2.4).

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 4-7. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 2 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.