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Fantasy Usage Model - Week 8 NFL Recap

Nov 1st 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 8 Recap

Data only from Weeks 5-8. You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 8 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - Saquon Barkley (-2.1 half PPR over expected), Damien Harris (-1.8), Jonathan Taylor (-1.5), Melvin Gordon (-1.5), Dameon Pierce (-1.4).

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Josh Jacobs (+9.5), Austin Ekeler (+7.1), Kenneth Walker (+6.1), Nick Chubb (+5.7), Dalvin Cook (+5.6), D'Onta Foreman (+3.3).

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Diontae Johnson (-7.9), Josh Palmer (-4.9), Courtland Sutton (-4.9), Chris Godwin (-4.5), Deebo Samuel (-3.8), Michael Gallup (-2.9), Amon-Ra St. Brown (-2.7), Mike Evans (-2.1).

  • WR (Negative Regression) - Mecole Hardman (+7.7), Stefon Diggs (+7.1), A.J. Brown (+6.5), Gabe Davis (+6.3), Jakobi Meyers (+5.1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (+4.5), Brandon Aiyuk (+4.2).

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Gerald Everett (-4.9), Foster Moreau (-2.2).

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Travis Kelce (+4.4), Dawson Knox (+4.0), Greg Dulcich (+3.0).

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 5-8. "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 3 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.