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Fantasy Usage Model - Week 9 NFL Recap

Nov 8th 2022

Hayden Winks

Posted every Tuesday, The Fantasy Usage Model combines my expected fantasy points model with his film notes to recap the previous week's game. An explanation of this is here, but it basically turns targets, carries, air yards, goal line touches, and other variables into expected fantasy points.

Fantasy Usage Model - Week 9 Recap

Data only from Weeks 6-9 (nice). You can filter by team, position, or stat, and you can remove columns. Best viewed on desktop.

Week 9 Regression Candidates

  • RB (Positive Regression) - Saquon Barkley (-3.9 half PPR over expected), Leonard Fournette (-2.8), Devin Singletary (-2.8), A.J. Dillon (-2.6), David Montgomery (-2.1)

  • RB (Negative Regression) - Tony Pollard (+7.6), Derrick Henry (+7.2), Joe Mixon (+5.7), Josh Jacobs (+5.3), Cordarrelle Patterson (+5.2), Alvin Kamara (+4.7), Kenyan Drake (+3.0)

  • WR (Positive Regression) - Diontae Johnson (-6.6), Chris Godwin (-5.5), Michael Gallup (-4.1), Courtland Sutton (-3.8), Mike Evans (-3.6), Chris Olave (-1.9).

  • WR (Negative Regression) - A.J. Brown (+10.9), Mecole Hardman (+8.4), JuJu Smith-Schuster (+7.6), Tyler Boyd (+5.0), Brandon Aiyuk (+4.9).

  • TE (Positive Regression) - Gerald Everett (-4.6), Foster Moreau (-2.0), Mark Andrews (-1.6)

  • TE (Negative Regression) - Juwan Johnson (+3.6), Greg Dulcich (+3.0), Cole Kmet (+2.4)

RB Situational Usage

All per game numbers from Weeks 6-9 (nice). "Dream Opps" are inside the 5-yard line opportunities plus "passing game targets", which are targets in obvious passing downs like the 2-minute warning, while trailing big, or on 3rd-and-long.

WR & TE Situational Usage

4.0 targets per game and 3 games this season to qualify. "EPA" is an efficiency stat. "CPOE" is completion percentage over expected. "TDOE" is touchdowns over expected. "aDOT" is average depth of target. "Deep Perc" is percentage of targets traveling 15+ yards downfield. "Deep Catch Rate" is how often those deep targets are caught. "Sideline Perc" is percentage of targets near the sideline, where targets are less valuable.