NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
What's going on fellow readers??? I'm surprised anyone knows how to read still, but I'm thankful for all the people who reached out about The Blueprint over the last couple weeks. I took them off to welcome in Baby Kelly (aka Dontayvion Winks) and now plan on slowly ramping up work over the next month. I won't write as many notes as previously and may focus on the positions I'm podcasting about that week. I think that'll be WR Rankings first. Thanks for your patience!
Week 9 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 10 RB Rankings
Saquon Barkley - 107.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
The Cowboys have allowed the 2nd-most points to fantasy RBs. This is an eruption spot.
Alvin Kamara - 113.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Falcons have allowed the 3rd-most receptions to RBs. The Saints have nobody else to throw to. Too big to fail. This is an eruption spot.
Derrick Henry - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens are 1st in projected points (29.75). This is an eruption spot.
De'Von Achane - 103.5 total yards in Pick'em.
In 4 games with Tua, the speedster is averaging a league-high 23.8 half PPR points on 19.0 expected points. The Dolphins offense has been effective and RB focused.
Joe Mixon - 105.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The RB2 on RB2 usage this month with the Texans ranking 31st in neutral pass rate.
Christian McCaffrey (Questionable) - 95.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The 49ers are 2nd in projected points (28.0), and the Bucs have allowed the 4th-most receptions to RBs.
The 49ers don't have the luxury to slow-play his return given their record, lack of red zone success, and the injury to Jordan Mason. Before this achilles popped up, he was the 1.01 for a reason. Big games come immediately.
Kyren Williams - 106.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Rams are 3rd in projected points (26.5). There isn't a more consistent touchdown scorer right now (aside from Derrick Henry).
Bijan Robinson - 104.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
The Falcons are 6th in projected points (25.0). This is an eruption spot.
Breece Hall - 102.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Rodgers isn't going to rely on his RB the same way the Jets bad QBs did, especially with Davante Adams in town. Don't expect the receptions to return for Hall, who know needs TDs to compete with the other RB1 workhorses.
Jonathan Taylor - 105.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bills have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs on the most receptions allowed.
Kareem Hunt - 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs are 8th in projected points (24.75).
He's the RB7 on RB1 overall usage. Too big to fail, especially if the Chiefs score more points with DeAndre Hopkins.
Aaron Jones - 96.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
The Vikings are 5th in projected points (25.75), and the Jaguars have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to RBs. That's obviously a strength of Jones.
Cam Akers is playing more than Ty Chandler has been, but it's still a strong RB2 workload for the veteran.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are 4th in projected points (26.25).
Chase Brown - 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
His 80% snap rate from Week 9 is likely sticky on a short week, even with Khalil Herbert in town. Brown is improved as a zone rusher in year two, allowing him to play in more early-down situations. His pass-game chops are showcased with Joe Burrow's quick decision-making without Tee Higgins operating as a go-to weapon.
The Ravens have the highest neutral pass rate allowed on defense, resulting in the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs. That's not great, but it's less concerning with Brown's receiving role in conjunction with the absense of Tee Higgins.
James Conner (Questionable) - 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Offenses facing the Jets are running the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate.
Tyrone Tracy - 90.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Panthers have allowed 29.0 half PPR points to RBs, by far the most. This is an eruption spot.
He's firmly the 1a ahead of Devin Singletary.
J.K. Dobbins - 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
James Cook - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are 7th in projected points (25.0).
D'Andre Swift - 94.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB10 on RB24 this month.
Najee Harris - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Fresh off the bye, Harris' outlook generally looks improved with Russ because he's just a better football player. We'll see if the struggling Jaylen Warren looks healthier after the bye.
Austin Ekeler - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson (hamstring) is out again. Ekeler had a season-high 14.8 expected half PPR points without him last week, only losing some snaps to Chris Rodriguez.
David Montgomery - 73.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are 4th in projected points (26.25).
Rhamondre Stevenson - 72.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Patriots are 2nd-to-last in projected points (16.5).
Chuba Hubbard - 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jonathon Brooks is expected to debut (maybe??????), but this should only swing things at the margin initially. Hubbard is a staff favorite with the production to match. He'll likely be the lead back for a bit.
Tony Pollard - 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Titans are last in projected points (15.25), and the Chargers are 2nd-best against fantasy RBs.
This is the first game since Week 6 that Tyjae Spears is playing in. Pollard was averaging 13.5 expected half PPR points in those first five games with Spears, compared to 16.9 in the last three contests.
Rachaad White - 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He has positive rush yards over expected and sits at +12% over expected on his total usage per my model. That's an improvement (or a sign that NGS's rush yards over expected metric is largely a OL/scheme stat). Either way, White is holding down the 1a role to Bucky Irving on the whole, while Sean Tucker is getting one drive per game. White is the RB8 on RB37 usage. Once that regresses, he's an RB3/flex. That means a starter in most leagues.
Rico Dowdle - 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 4th-to-last in projected points (17.0), but Dowdle is at least a little protected with his receiving role. Even a couple of his "carries" from last week were swing passes out in the flats that just happened to be slightly behind the QB. He's an effective garbage time pass catcher if the Cowboys are down big. Dowdle will also be the goal line back most of the time. He's at 14.6 half PPR points on 12.1 expected points over his last 4 games.
The Eagles are 3rd-best against fantasy RBs.
Javonte Williams - 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this year at 12.5 half PPR points compared to 15.0 for the 2nd-best teams. That's a huge gap.
There are reports and coach speak about getting rookie early-down candidate Audric Estime more touches, but Williams was the lead back until complete garbage time last week. If that holds again, Williams is a fair-enough RB3/flex as he's been the RB30 on RB25 this month.
Bucky Irving - 46.5 total yards in Pick'em.
His usage last week (6.8 expected half PPR points) was his lowest since Week 3. That's not unexpected in a tough matchup, but Rachaad White maintaining a lead on short-yardage situations is a tougher sell for the rookie. He's the RB28 on RB32 usage this month.
Raheem Mostert - 43.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He was largely benched after his early 3rd quarter fumble, though some of that was scoreboard related, too. There's a chance rookie Jaylin Wright is used more now that the Dolphins are mostly eliminated from playoff contention.
Tank Bigsby - 48.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Teams simply don't run the ball against the Vikings' unique defense.
The Jaguars are figuring out if they want to fully demote Travis Etienne yet. They split the early-down work in his return last week before both lost touches to D'Ernest Johnson in negative game script. Bigsby is my long-term favorite to separate, but this isn't a backfield to target for now. He had 3.8 expected half PPR points in last week's loss.
Tyler Allgeier
Travis Etienne
Ray Davis
Jaylen Warren
Justice Hill
Roschon Johnson
Devin Singletary
Braelon Allen
Chris Rodriguez
Week 10 WR Rankings
Justin Jefferson - 92.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I'd give him an MVP vote for what he's done this year.
This is an eruption spot against the worst passing EPA defense. Vikings are projected for over 25 points.
Ja'Marr Chase - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Offenses facing the Ravens pass the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations. This is an eruption spot.
Malik Nabers - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton (concussion) missing would only add to his WR1 usage. In fact, Nabers is one of the biggest positive regression candidates per the model, which often times doesn't include great football players. This is the exception.
The Giants project for 23.5 points, likely a season-high for them, against a brutal Panthers defense. This is an eruption spot.
Cooper Kupp - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's played 3 healthy games. He's averaging 18.2 half PPR points on 20.6 expected points, though most of that comes without Puka Nacua. A healthy 25.5-point team total for the Rams alleviates those splits concerns.
Kupp should avoid Jalen Ramsey in the slot.
A.J. Brown - 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was able to get in full practices on Thursday and Friday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to WRs, with slot WRs Josh Downs (20.2 half PPR), Davante Adams (18.6) and Garrett Wilson (25.5), Pop Douglas (18.2), and Christian Kirk (15.6) getting home in particular. Amon-Ra is unlikely to see much of outside CB Derek Stingley.
Garrett Wilson - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's at 16.0 half PPR points (WR2) on 11.7 expected points (WR8) with Davante Adams. That's partially unsustainable production, but he's been really damn good in a more pass-heavy game plan.
CeeDee Lamb - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He averaged 76 yards in 5 games with Cooper Rush back in 2022, but that football team was a lot better and Lamb wasn't dealing with an AC joint issue either.
Offenses facing the Eagles have passed the ball in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate. He'll see some rookie CB Cooper DeJean in coverage, who has been great but is still a rookie.
Tank Dell - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Nico Collins returns. Without him, Dell has top-15 love from me.
The Lions have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs.
Puka Nacua - 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He didn't look the same after a practice-week setback, but he is practicing in full and is a tough dude.
He'll see some Jalen Ramsey on the perimeter, but he's not the full lock-down corner he once was.
Zay Flowers - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are projected for the most points of the week.
He's the WR5 on WR18 usage this month, hammering those 2nd-level throws and winning on broken plays and in the screen game. It's one of the more fascinating roles across the league. It works.
Drake London (Questionable) - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was limited (hip pointer) all week. London is likely to miss 0-1 games, with the coaching staff optimism that he guts it out this weekend.
He's been the WR15 on WR11 usage in his healthy games this month.
Deebo Samuel (Questionable) - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was limited (oblique) all week even though he was coming out of the bye.
The 49ers project for the 2nd-most points of the week, and Deebo is one of the biggest positive regression candidates of the season.
The Bucs have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to WRs, and offenses facing Tampa Bay chooses to pass the ball in neutral situations at the 2nd-highest rate.
Davante Adams - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR26 on WR15 usage this month with the Jets. No Mike Williams and Allen Lazard (IR) is going to help at the margins.
Khalil Shakir - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bills are 4th in projected points.
He's been the WR34 on WR44 usage this month, and even higher than that in full PPR. Shakir is the easy button in the pass game but is less involved in the red area. The loss of Keon Coleman helps his involvement.
Josh Downs - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR24 usage this month.
The Billls force throws underneath with their stingy 2-high defense, which has allowed most slot receivers to get home against them. That's Mr. Downs.
Terry McLaurin - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR6 on WR20 usage this month, eclipsing 12.8 half PPR points in 7-straight games. That's insanely impressive.
DeVonta Smith - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a full participant (hamstring) on Friday.
George Pickens - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Williams likely doesn't play a full complement of snaps in his debut, and there's a chance that Big Mike's presence aids Pickens' single-high coverage rate, especially in Cover 3 looks versus the Steelers' heavy personnel looks.
He's the WR19 on WR10 usage this month, making him a major positive regression candidate (see: one foot in bounds). The TDs are coming.
Darnell Mooney - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He'll vault into the top-15 mix if Drake London misses time. Mooney's tape has vastly improved, and this is a pass-heavy team. He's already the WR20 on WR22 usage this month with London in the lineup.
Brian Thomas - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mac Jones is expected to start, and our own Jay Gruden even hinted at Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) needing surgery. Rap Sheet reported they are still weighing their options.
The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs.
Ladd McConkey - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chargers are 4th in neutral pass rate this month after coming out of the bye, allowing the rookie to have 10.0+ expected half PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games. The tape has been pretty, pretty good.
The Titans have been so bad on offense that their defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs due to game script.
DeAndre Hopkins - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had 15.6 expected half PPR points in his first real game with the Chiefs.
The red zone usage, feel for zone, and the occasional RPO/screen look has Hopkins' arrow pointed up. This isn't the Rashee Rice role exactly, but Mahomes hasn't had an intermediate-occupying WR in years. This is refreshing.
He'll see some Patrick Surtain on the perimeter.
Tyreek Hill (Questionable) - 74.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This wrist injury has my attention. Coach Mike McDaniel is usually straight forward with injuries, and he's not exactly optimistic (or pessimistic) about Hill's injury. He just will see if his body will respond. With this on Monday Night Football, you better have a backup plan like DeMarcus Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Jonnu Smith, or Odell Beckham.
Jaylen Waddle - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Rams have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to WRs.
The usage is problematic, however. There's at least a path to upside if Tyreek Hill (wrist) is actually banged up.
Calvin Ridley - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chargers under a new staff have allwoed the 2nd-fewest WR receptions.
He's the WR37 on WR3 overall usage as one of the biggest positive regression candidates. I know that the QB play is awful and there will be prayer yards, but the Titans are 7.5-point dogs and there's nobody else to throw the ball to.
Courtland Sutton - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR24 on WR17 usage this month, coming off back-to-back 100+ yard games as the Broncos only reliable skill player. The Chiefs are a great defense, but the Broncos will pass plenty as 7.5-point dogs.
Marvin Harrison - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR30 on WR35 usage this month, posting a fumble and a contested-catch drop last week. The Cardinals are so run heavy and Marvin hasn't been playing to the degree to force feed him touches, leaving him with a volatile WR3 profile. Let's hope those crossing routes come back again.
He'll see Sauce Gardner on the perimeter this week. The Jets are 3rd-best against fantasy WRs on the lowest neutral pass rate allowed.
DJ Moore - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
In games with Keenan Allen, Moore is averaging 9.3 half PPR points on 10.2 expected points. He's the WR28 in usage this month, and his inconsistent play is hurting the Bears on offense. They need to get Moore in a Deebo Samuel like role to take advantage of his YAC appeal. The downfield throws aren't working.
Nico Collins (Questionable)
He went DNP-DNP-limited in practice (hamstring), and players with that practice report coming off IR typically don't play. It's odd that the Texans activated him off IR still, but this is on SNF and you better have a legit backup plan like Jaylen Waddle, Jameson Williams, or Jauan Jennings on SNF or MNF.
Jauan Jennings - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a full participant (hip) on Friday.
The 49ers project for the 2nd-most points of the week.
The Bucs have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to WRs, and offenses facing Tampa Bay chooses to pass the ball in neutral situations at the 2nd-highest rate.
Xavier Legette - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's at 12.4 and 8.9 expected half PPR points without Diontae Johnson, taking advantage of his red zone opportunities. While still not perfect, these last few games have been the best Bryce Young has looked throughout his career.
Jordan Addison - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Jaguars have allowed the 4th-most points to fantasy WRs.
DeMario Douglas - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's only in 3-WR sets, but he's at least the WR32 on WR32 usage this month. His spike week potential is enhanced by the Drake Maye ascendence.
His matchup is improved if slot CB Kyler Gordon (limited) can't play again.
Rome Odunze - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was more productive last week, but that was because of a broken coverage. His drops have been poorly timed and the Bears' pass protection is laughable. Odunze hasn't been the top-10 pick to me on tape.
Xavier Worthy - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
There will be some schemed opportunities and some downfield shots available.
Jameson Williams - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions are 3rd in projected points.
In his 6 games, Williams is averaging 11.0 half PPR points on 8.0 expected points. His boom-bust style is that of a fantasy WR3/4.
Keenan Allen - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His -35% fantasy points over expected are near the league's worst. He's the WR28 on WR16 usage this month, with only one really nice week on the entire year.
Joshua Palmer - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR40 on WR62 usage this month with the Chargers opening up the playbook.
Quentin Johnston - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The production has largely been due to flukey broken coverages. The good news is the Chargers are passing more and QJ is on the field all the time. That's how you create some luck.
Andrei Iosivas - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Offenses facing the Ravens pass the ball at the highest rate in neutral situations, and the Bengals are 2nd in neutral pass rate this month already. Iosivas should see more than a handful of targets here with Tee Higgins doubtful.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton (concussion) missing would be a boost, as the Wan'Dale pyarmid scheme scam had been getting raided by the FBI in recent weeks.
Demarcus Robinson - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sort by Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. See what happens.
Mack Hollins
Curtis Samuel
Adonai Mitchell
Diontae Johnson - 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are projected for the most points of the week.
Rashod Bateman - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are projected for the most points of the week.
Noah Brown
Ricky Pearsall
Alec Pierce
Mason Tipton
The Saints are without Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (IR), Bub Means (IR), and Cedric Wilson (DNP). He and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the last men standing.
Jalen Tolbert
Jalen Coker
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Parker Washington
Ray-Ray McCloud
Michael Wilson
Sterling Shepard (Questionable)
Kayshon Boutte - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 10 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (29.75 points, -6.5 spread) vs. CIN
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (24.5, -7.5) at DAL
Josh Allen - Bills (25.5, -4.0) at IND
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (24.5, -3.0) vs. PIT
Brock Purdy - 49ers (28.0, -5.5) at TB
The Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs.
Joe Burrow - Bengals (23.25, +6.5) at BAL
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (24.75, -8.5) vs. DEN
Matthew Stafford - Rams (25.5, -1.0) vs. MIA
Sam Darnold - Vikings (25.0, 4.5) at JAX
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (25.0, -3.5) at NO
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (24.5, +1.0) at LAR
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (23.5, -1.0) vs. NYJ
C.J. Stroud - Texans (22.75, +3.5) vs. DET
Daniel Jones - Giants (23.25, -5.5) at CAR
Justin Herbert - Chargers (22.75, -7.5) vs. TEN
Jared Goff - Lions (26.25, -3.5) at HOU
Baker Mayfield - Bucs (22.5, +5.5) vs. SF
Drake Maye - Patriots (16.5, +6.0) at CHI
Caleb Williams - Bears (22.5, -6.0) vs. NE
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (22.5, +1.0) at ARI
Bo Nix - Broncos (16.75, +8.5) at KC
Russell Wilson - Steelers (21.5, +3.0) at WAS
Derek Carr - Saints (21.5, +3.5) vs. ATL
Bryce Young - Panthers (17.25, +5.5) vs. NYG
Joe Flacco - Colts (21.5, +4.0) vs. BUF
Mac Jones - Jaguars (18.75, +4.5) vs. MIN
Trevor Lawrence might have shoulder surgery.
Cooper Rush - Cowboys (17.0, +7.5) vs. PHI
Will Levis - Titans (15.25, +7.5) at LAC
Week 10 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - 50.5 rushing + receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Saints are without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Cedric Wilson, Bub Means, Kendre Miller, and potentially Jamaal Williams (limited). Who is Taysom Hill not involved again?
Mark Andrews - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Isiah Likely is out, and the Ravens are projected for the most points.
Mike Gesicki - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
No Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman. It has to be time, right? Right???
Kyle Pitts - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The saving grace should be the immense targets.
Evan Engram - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
This assumes Nico Collins (hamstring) is in.
Zach Ertz - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Theo Johnson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Will Dissly - 21.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Colby Parkinson - 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 10 Defenses For Sickos
My analysis on this is here. Peep the timestamps: