NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
What's going on fellow readers??? I'm surprised anyone knows how to read still, but I'm thankful for all the people who reached out about The Blueprint over the last couple weeks. I took them off to welcome in Baby Kelly (aka Dontayvion Winks) and now plan on slowly ramping up work over the next month. I won't write as many notes as previously and may focus on the positions I'm podcasting about that week. I think that'll be WR Rankings first. Thanks for your patience!
Week 10 Fantasy Football Recap Notes
Week 11 RB Rankings
Christian McCaffrey - 122.5 total yards in Pick'em.
His debut was solid. CMC's receiving role was back to normal, and he's going to be the goal-line back. There weren't any wow runs on tape, but he looked functional coming off a lingering achilles injury.
49ers are 2nd in projected points this week.
The Seahawks have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to RBs.
Saquon Barkley - 109.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Eagles LT Jordan Mailata was activated off IR.
Eagles are 4th in projected points this week. This is an eruption spot.
Alvin Kamara - 117.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB4 usage this month. Jamal Williams and Kendre Miller are out again.
Joe Mixon - 106.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB2 on RB2 overall usage this month.
Texans are 6th in projected points this week.
The Cowboys have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to RBs, specifically alllowed 111 rushing yards per game on 4.5 YPC and the worst rushing EPA allowed. They haven't stopped the run since I joined Underdog years ago. This is an eruption spot.
Kyren Williams - 103.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB13 on RB5 usage this month, but the Rams got Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson back on the offensive line. This should be a great offense down the stretch. Rams are 7th in projected points this week.
The Patriots have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to RBs.
De'Von Achane - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Last week was a dud, but Achane is averaging 20.5 half PPR points on an elite 17.3 expected half PPR points in games with Tua this season. And the Dolphins are 3rd in projected points this week.
The Raiders have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs.
Derrick Henry - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are 5th in projected points this week.
The Steelers are 5th in rushing EPA allowed.
Breece Hall - 100.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jets are 8th in projected points this week.
The Colts have allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards per game to RBs.
Bijan Robinson - 94.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB6 overall fantasy usage this month.
He's faced the most 6-defender boxes in the NFL. That's a ton of light boxes to showcase his athleticism.
The Broncos are 5th in RB receptions allowed.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions are 1st in projected points this week.
The Jaguars have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs on the 4th-most receptions per game.
Chase Brown - 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB12 on RB3 overall usage this month, seeing an absurd 29.0 and 20.1 expected half PPR points in the two games without Zack Moss (IR). Don't expect Khalil Herbert to play more than a handful of plays per game, even on longer rest.
The Chargers have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to RBs on the 3rd-best rushing EPA.
Kareem Hunt - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bills have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs. Some of that is because they sit in 2-high shells and make QBs check the ball down. They're 1st in receptions allowed to RBs (6.6 per game).
He's the RB9 on RB1 overall fantasy usage this month. The goal-line role and last week's receiving share are super encouraging, even if he's painfully bad in explosive run rate.
Jonathan Taylor - 96.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB22 on RB12 usage this month, as a positive regression candidate. The return of Anthony Richardson is good for his explosive run rate but bad for his receiving role. It's likely close to a wash unless AR plays dramatically better than he did earlier in the season, which is possible.
This is an eruption spot against the lifeless Jets, who are working on their tackling fundamentals in practice this week. That's always a great sign!
David Montgomery - 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions are 1st in projected points this week.
The Jaguars have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs on the 4th-most receptions per game.
Josh Jacobs - 92.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Fresh off a bye, Jacobs is the RB6 on RB18 fantasy usage this month. The yardage totals have been great. He's just due for more touchdowns to close the RB1 gap. A fully healthy Packers offense should help that cause.
Bears EDGE Montez Sweat is questionable.
Kenneth Walker - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Fresh off a bye, Walker is the RB18 on RB20 fantasy usage this month. The Seahawks OL has been a disaster in recent weeks, and now they have to sort out Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
Aaron Jones - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He should be fine with his rib injury, assuming his pain injection works well. He's been the RB25 on RB19 usage this month with the Vikings offense slowing down and with Cam Akers being a little involved.
J.K. Dobbins - 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB20 on RB21 usage this month.
Chargers are 9th in projected points this week.
The Bengals are 4th-worst in rushing EPA allowed. This is an eruption spot.
James Cook - 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bills are 9th in projected points this week.
He's the RB14 on RB16 usage, but this is a tougher matchup. The Chiefs have allowed the least fantasy points to RBs on the fewest rushing yards per game (52). Only Bijan Robinson has scored more than 11.0 half PPR points against them, and that was only 12.2. Their also 4th in rushing EPA allowed.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB23 on RB15 usage this month. The Patriots do him few favors, but Stevenson is getting the damn rock and every Drake Maye start should slowly get better.
D'Andre Swift - 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bears are 4th-to-last in projected points this week.
Rico Dowdle - 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Cowboys are 3rd-to-last in projected points this week.
The Texans are 5th-best against fantasy RBs.
Nick Chubb - 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the RB26 in fantasy usage this month, but the Browns have yet to spring a big run behind an iffy OL.
The Saints have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs on the 2nd-worst rushing EPA allowed. This is an eruption spot.
Najee Harris - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens are 7th-best against fantasy RBs, 2nd in rushing EPA allowed, and 1st in rushing success rate allowed.
He's the RB16 on RB7 usage this month with Russell Wilson getting the Steelers into the red zone more often. Harris remains the clear favorite over Jaylen Warren, who is dealing with a back injury right now.
Brian Robinson - 58.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Eagles have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to RBs on the 7th-best rushing EPA allowed.
Travis Etienne - 68.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaguars are 2nd-to-last in projected points this week, and the Lions are 6th-best against fantasy RBs on the 6th-best rushing EPA allowed.
Tank Bigsby (foot) has been ruled out, so Etienne's goal-line path is pretty secured. They led last week's game with Etienne, too. It's just a matter of keeping this close enough before D'Ernest Johnson begins "cooking".
Tony Pollard - 75.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Titans are last in projected points this week. Their highly-paid C, Lloyd Cushenberry, was just placed on IR.
The Vikings are 4th-best against fantasy RBs because they crowd the line of scrimmage. That's made them No. 1 in rushing EPA allowed.
Tyjae Spears' return does matter. Pollard's expected half PPR points drops from 16.9 down to 12.6 in the games with the youngster.
Audric Estime - 59.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He's the favorite for early-down production and the goal line role, but Jaleel McLaughlin will be a change-of-pace option and Javonte Williams is playing on passing downs.
Austin Ekeler
Alexander Mattison - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raiders are 5th-to-last in projected points this week.
This is what a disaster looks like for fantasy:
Tyjae Spears - 38.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren (Questionable)
Najee Harris was able to get in back-to-back full practices and is fully off the final injury report. Meanwhile, Harris went full-DNP-limited (back) and is questionable to play.
Warren quietly already has more than 11.2 expected half PPR points in 3-straight games because the offense has been functional. That's enough for RB27 usage this month.
Tyler Allgeier - 37.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert
Javonte Williams - 31.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Justice Hill
Jaylen Wright - 30.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Cam Akers
Gus Edwards
Ray Davis
D'Ernest Johnson
Week 11 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I'm dragging Chase's yardage up every week moving forward in Pick'em to see what happens.
A.J. Brown - 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Eagles have the 3rd-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot with CB Marshon Lattimore out again.
Justin Jefferson - 82.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans have the 6th-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions have the highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot.
Puka Nacua - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR8 on WR3 overall fantasy usage this month, removing his ejection game. Last week's tape was far more fluid than it was in Week 9.
The Rams have the 8th-highest team total of the week. This will be a physical, fun matchup with CB Christian Gonzalez outside.
Deebo Samuel - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He hasn't been himself as a receiver this year, but Deebo looked explosive on tape last week and is the WR9 in usage this month.
The 49ers have the 2nd-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot, especially with George Kittle on the injury report.
Cooper Kupp - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR14 on WR10 usage this month, and he made a few great plays on Monday Night Football, including a one-handed out-route grab near the sideline.
The Rams have the 8th-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot with Christian Gonzalez seeing more Puka on the outside.
Tyreek Hill - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
George Pickens - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens are allowing the most fantasy points to WRs this year, by far. This is an eruption spot.
Garrett Wilson - 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's had at least 12.8 half PPR points in 8-straight games. That's bananas.
DK Metcalf - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He was a full participant all week and was left off the injury report. Metcalf should be close to 100% again.
I've taken his first downs HIGHER on Underdog.
Drake London - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He'll see some CB Patrick Surtain on the perimeter. Not great!
Davante Adams - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR7 in usage since joining the lifeless Jets, but it hasn't consistently translated to production yet. That's likely small sample noise, but the age cliff does come for everyone. That's for Adams and Rodgers in this case.
Jauan Jennings - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I've taken his fantasy points HIGHER on Underdog.
His tape has been glorious this season, and he's been seeing elite usage as the WR1 or WR2 on the Niners. He had 18.7 and 15.9 expected half PPR points in those roles this year, vaulting up to the WR17 on WR5 usage this month.
The 49ers have the 2nd-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot.
Tee Higgins - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He is off the final injury report, but it's at least worth noting that he was still limited all week with this quad injury.
Zay Flowers - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens have the 5th-highest team total of the week.
DeVonta Smith - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Eagles have the 3rd-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot with CB Marshon Lattimore out again.
Cedric Tillman - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR3 on WR4 overall usage this month. Dog.
Calvin Ridley - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR11 on WR6 usage this month, and his splits without DeAndre Hopkins are wild; 16.7 expected half PPR points without him vs. 8.7 with him. This past week, Ridley was used in the screen game and as the cheat motion man. The downfield targets are really valuable over time, even if they can be volatile.
The Titans have the lowest team total of the week, but offenses facing the Vikings don't run the ball. There should be some pass attempts in Tennessee. They've been 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs.
Courtland Sutton - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR22 on WR17 usage this month.
CeeDee Lamb (Questionable) - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Cowboys have the 3rd-lowest team total of the week.
The Cooper Rush stuff is bad, but he did at least target Lamb repeatedly underneath and gave him a red zone target that was blinded out by Jerry Jones' sunlight experiment. I'm willing to give Lamb another week in the starter range after seeing him connect with Lamb repeatedly in 2022, but a pivot to Trey Lance could be the straw that breaks the Lamb's back.
Lamb was added to the practice report on Saturday with a back injury and is officially questionable. Coach Mike McCarthy suggests it's not a big deal.
Darnell Mooney - 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He'll see some CB Patrick Surtain on the perimeter. Not great!
Jayden Reed - 51.5 total yards in Pick'em.
The Bears have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to WRs.
DeAndre Hopkins - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears have the 5th-lowest team total of the week.
Tank Dell - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Texans have the 6th-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ladd McConkey - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Chargers have the 7th-highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot.
Khalil Shakir
He's the WR25 on WR23 usage this month without Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper fully playing. This is a tougher matchup than normal with the Chiefs.
Amari Cooper (Questionable) - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I've taken his receptions HIGHER on Underdog.
He's trending towards playing this time, as the Bills did not elevate a practice squad WR on Saturday. Cooper's wrist injury is something to still monitor, however, because he was limited in practice all week and was seen with a cast/brace. The playing time should be near 100% with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid out.
The Chiefs are 10th-best against fantasy WRs.
Brian Thomas
The Jaguars have the 2nd-lowest team total of the week, but they are 13.5-point dogs so game script is very much in his favor. The Lions have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs because of game scripts and their strong run defense.
Jameson Williams - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Lions have the highest team total of the week. This is an eruption spot, though CB Tyson Campbell being healthy does make the Jaguars more formidable on the outside.
Jaylen Waddle - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Dolphins have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
DJ Moore - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears have the 4th-lowest team total of the week.
He's the WR28 in usage this month, but the efficiency has dropped.
Romeo Doubs - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Bears have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to WRs.
Josh Downs
The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs.
Anthony Richardson is a downgrade for the WRs, even as an Anthony Richardson > Joe Flacco enjoyer. His expected half PPR points per game: With AR (7.1), with Joe (14.4).
Jerry Jeudy - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR43 on WR18 usage this month. That's par for his course, but there is an underrated ceiling to chase with Jameis.
Quentin Johnston
The Chargers have the 7th-highest team total of the week.
Rome Odunze
Elijah Moore - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the WR41 on WR19 usage this month.
Michael Pittman (Questionable)
He got in a full practice on Wednesday (back).
The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
The Browns have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs.
Jordan Addison - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Xavier Worthy - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ricky Pearsall
Keenan Allen - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Ravens have the 5th-highest team total of the week.
Joshua Palmer
Noah Brown - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Williams
Kayshon Boutte - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Watson - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeMario Douglas - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett
Demarcus Robinson
Alec Pierce
Dontayvion Wicks
Ray-Ray McCloud
Adonai Mitchell
Week 11 QB Rankings
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (26.0 points, -3.5 spread) vs. WAS
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (25.75, -3.0) at PIT
Josh Allen - Bills (24.0, -4.0) vs. KC
Jayden Daniels - Cowboys (22.5, +3.5) at PHI
Brock Purdy - 49ers (28.5, -6.5) vs. SEA
Joe Burrow - Bengals (23.0, +1.5) at LAC
Bo Nix - Broncos (23.25, -2.5) vs. ATL
Justin Herbert - Chargers (24.0, -3.5) vs. CIN
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (21.5, +2.5) at BUF
Jared Goff - Lions (30.0, -13.0) vs. JAX
C.J. Stroud - Texans (24.75, -7.5) at DAL
Drake Maye - Patriots (19.5, +5.0) vs. LAR
Jordan Love - Packers (23.5, -6.0) at CHI
Geno Smith - Seahawks (22.0, +6.5) at SF
Matthew Stafford - Rams (24.5, -5.0) at NE
Anthony Richardson - Colts (19.75, +4.0) at NYJ
Jameis Winston - Browns (21.75, +1.0) at NO
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (26.75, -7.5) vs. LV
Sam Darnold - Vikings (22.75, -6.0) at TEN
Russell Wilson - Steelers (22.75, +3.0) vs. BAL
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (24.25, -4.0) vs. IND
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (20.75, +2.5) at DEN
Derek Carr - Saints (22.75, -1.0) vs. CLE
Caleb Williams - Bears (17.5, +6.0) vs. GB
Mac Jones - Jaguars (17.0, +13.0) at DET
Will Levis - Titans (16.75, +6.0) vs. MIN
Gardner Minshew - Raiders (18.75, +7.5) at MIA
Cooper Rush - Cowboys (17.25, +7.5) vs. HOU
Week 11 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brock Bowers - 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's at 11.8 half PPR points on 10.3 expected without Davante Adams.
David Njoku - 48.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's at 22.4, 9.0, and 7.4 expected half PPR points without Amari Cooper and Deshaun Watson.
Evan Engram - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - 48.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Hill has 9.9 half PPR points on 7.2 expected half PPR points over his last 4 healthy games. Backup RBs Jamal Williams and Kendre Miller are still out, as are all of the WRs, so his involvement should be pretty secure.
T.J. Hockenson - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had a handful of nice routes, including an option route that showed his athleticism has rebound post surgeries. Will there consistently be enough volume? We'll learn very soon.
Kyle Pitts - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
There will be booms. There will be busts. You signed up for this lifestyle.
Mark Andrews - 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His route rate increased with Isiah Likely last week, but he's off the injury report and will play again. Andrews has averaged 7.2 half PPR points on 5.2 expected half PPR points with Likely this year, though he's been on fire over his last 5 games with him specifically.
Hunter Henry - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake Maye is in, the Patriots are at home, and the Rams pass defense is one to target. This is a week to hope Henry's TE8 overall usage this month can convert to actual fantasy points.
Will Dissly - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's the TE9 in usage this month with an increasing number of first-read targets. Have they converted? Not necessarily, but the Chargers are playing good ball and Cincy's defense isn't.
Mike Gesicki - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I don't think the splits will be this drastic moving forward because he's played so well recently, but expected half PPR points: with Tee Higgins (2.4), without him (10.2).
Dawson Knox - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Kincaid (PCL sprain) is likely out 1-4 weeks. Keon Coleman won't play either.
Tucker Kraft - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's running way too pure on TDs and YAC, but things like this happen in good offenses. He's at 11.4 half PPR points in games without Luke Musgrave.
Dallas Goedert - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He had a season-low 5.0 expected half PPR points without Dak Prescott last week.
Zach Ertz - 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Isiah Likely - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 11 Defenses For Sickos
