The important dates to know for the 2025 NFL Offseason are:

• February 24th: NFL Combine (where we get some news)

• March 4th: Deadline for franchise tag and transition tag

• March 7th: 5 days before league year (when some players get released)

• March 10th: NFL Free Agency (when it actually begins)

• March 12th: NFL Free Agency (when it technically begins)

• April 24th: 2025 NFL Draft (Round 1)

• April 25th: 2025 NFL Draft (Rounds 2-3)

• April 26th 2025 NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7)

We'll have individual videos and full offseason recaps for each event on our YouTube channel. Come join the 135k who have subscribed:

1. Sam Darnold Is A Franchise Tag Candidate

The Vikings got everything they could've asked for during Darnold's bridge year, to the point where I don't know how they can walk away from this production and team success. Darnold was top 10 in most passing categories and the Vikings literally doubled their pre-season win total. JJ McCarthy waits in the wings, but he's only 22 years old, was inexperienced at Michigan, and is coming off two knee surgeries. It's not the worst-case scenario for McCarthy to be a backup in 2025, just like Jordan Love was in this division. Back to Darnold, however. If he left in free agency, Darnold would easily surpass the Baker Mayfield range ($50M guaranteed with $33M per year) given there are so many QB-needy teams with money available; Raiders ($111M cap space), Titans ($65M), and Giants ($60M) to name three. But the Vikings have the cap space to easily afford a one-year franchise tag of $41M to retain Darnold's downfield services. The Vikings would get to see Darnold prove it again in 2025 before signing him to a long-term contract, and they'd get a better evaluation on McCarthy's long-term status with another year of practice reps.

2. Aaron Rodgers Muses Retirement

He got everything he asked for with the Jets (aside from full health), and Rodgers went nowhere. Does he realize his play under pressure is no longer serviceable to compete at the levels he's used to? I think he does and turns in his retirement papers. If not, then it's on the Jets to make a move. Here are their options after hiring a new GM and HC:

• Decline $35M team option. Put all $49M in prorated bonuses (dead money) on the 2025 books.

• Decline $35M team option. Split dead money between $14M in 2025 and $35M in 2026.

• Accept $35M team option and then re-negotiate a deal with Rodgers, while still having $49M in prorated bonuses to figure out.

You just never know with owner Woody Johnson, but keeping Rodgers for another year (his age-42 year mind you) seems like torture to everyone involved, including new leadership. And if you are new leadership, isn't it best to take your medicine all at once during an evaluation season? To me, this ends up at the same place whether Rodgers retires or not; the Jets move on and put all $49M in dead money onto their 2025 books. With Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and other Rodgers' friends also being released most likely, the Jets could flirt with $100M in dead money this year. Bye bye 2025 free agency for New York. Rodgers' free agency short list could include the Giants, Raiders, and Titans. Does he really want to play for them? Come on.

3. Kirk Cousins Is A Cut Candidate

The Falcons completed 3 passes outside the tackle box in 14 games with Cousins before getting benched for surprise 1st rounder Michael Penix. That's essentially $90M for 14 games for Cousins, who is very likely to be released with a post June 1st designation. That'll equate to cap hits of $25M, $40M in 2025, and $25M in 2026. There were multiple mistakes here, but Cousins' no-trade clause was the final straw. If not for that, a team likely would've traded for Cousins and his would-be $27.5M contract. Now Cousins can flex his leverage and force his release well before free agency. Unlike in previous years, Cousins won't be cashing in this free agency because there's no reason to. He can sign a veteran-minimum contract like Russell Wilson while the Falcons pay his bills. Teams like the Browns without much cap space can be in the mix. The Jets, Giants, Raiders, Titans, and others will be in the mix hoping he looks better a full season removed from his torn achilles. If he can't move better, he's nothing more than a replacement level starter without upside.

4. Russell Wilson Is A Transition Tag Candidate

They didn't have to sign him to a long-term deal in 2024 because the Broncos were essentially paying his entire salary, but the long-term beat reporters in Pittsburgh said (repeatedly) that the hope was Wilson wouldn't just be the 2024 answer at QB but that he'd be the answer to 2025 as well. Given the team's record and his rapport with OC Arthur Smith and WR1 George Pickens, the easiest answer is to just make that happen. The avenue in how they do that is up for debate with the 1-year $41M franchise tag, the 1-year $35M transition tag, and regular free agency available. The transition tag is the sleeper situation to monitor, even if it's used often. It saves the Steelers some money compared to the franchise tag, and it allows the Steelers the right of first refusal (aka match) if Russ "agreed" to a contract with another team. If the 37-year-old doesn't find more money than $35M, then he's back with the Steelers on that. Because Russ isn't a fit for every system, it could be a smart move for the Steelers to make while saving that franchise tag money.

5. Derek Carr Is A Cut/Trade Candidate

The 34-year-old plays fairly well without many options, but the Saints are finally accepting their inevitable rebuild (see: Marshon Lattimore trade for example). They may decide to clean up their future cap with a new head coach coming. This decision will be expedited because $30M of Carr's 2025 contract will become guaranteed in March. Currently, Carr only has $10M guaranteed, with another $40M in prorated bonuses. If nothing is done, Carr will be the Week 1 starter on a $51M cap charge. If he's designated as a post June 1st release (which would still happen before March), then the Saints would save $30M in cap this year with dead money charges of $21M in 2025 and $29M in 2026. If he's traded before March, the Saints would put the $40M in prorated bonuses as dead money in 2025, while saving $11M in cap this year and all future cap charges beyond the year. An acquiring team would take on the $40M in Carr's 2025 deal, unless they renegotiated. Carr probably would have to accept a discounted contract to facilitate a trade. A potential short list of teams would be the Jets, Giants, and Titans. It's worth noting Titans coach Brian Callahan was Carr's QB coach in 2018.

6. Browns Are Uncertain At QB (Again)

Deshaun Watson might've played his last down in the NFL if the Browns are okay with walking away from his ludicrous guaranteed contract. They'll have to slide the outstanding $172M on their books at some point, but "when?" is the hard part. There's a chance they just can't afford to cut him right away. If they designate him as a post June 1st release this year, the Browns add $46M to their 2025 books when they are already over the cap heading into the offseason. If they wait until the 2026 offseason to post June 1st release him, then they are in less cap hell. So what happens if he has to stay on the team? Would he really not play? Could they just make him the emergency QB3 and hide him from the media? Will he just be left on PUP? I don't know. But the Browns getting themselves into this mess is super on brand.

There is one cheap option to bail them out, however. Kirk Cousins' release from the Falcons gives him the ability to sign a veteran minimum contract like Russell Wilson did with the Steelers. Coach Kevin Stefanski was Cousins' QB coach and then offensive coordinator in their two years together in Minnesota. This seems almost too obvious of a connection.

7. There Will Be A Mystery QB Starter Or Two

The game of music chairs at QB this year is as poisoned as it gets, assuming the incoming QB class is as forgettable as the NFL Draft analysts say they are. (I'll be studying them myself soon enough.) If you count the teams who need a QB and the veterans available plus let's say 2 incoming rookies, then there are 2ish teams who will be shit out of luck. That's good news for this tier of QB: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones, Jameis Winston, Will Levis (via trade), Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Mason Rudolph, Cooper Rush, etc. If Rodgers retires and/or the rookies go to a team with a starter in place (like Cousins and Penix last draft), then I think 1-2 of these names could be Week 1 NFL starters. Fun! Fun! Fun!

Let's play 2025 QB Musical Chairs while we're at it:

• Aaron Rodgers (retirement) --> Tyrod Taylor (Jets)

• Sam Darnold (Vikings)

• Russell Wilson (Steelers)

• Derek Carr (Titans)

• Kirk Cousins (Browns)

• Will Levis (Saints)

• Cam Ward (Giants) with Andy Dalton

• Shadeur Sanders (Raiders) with Mac Jones

• Jameis Winston (Falcons)

• Justin Fields (Colts)

• Daniel Jones (49ers)

8. Tee Higgins Is Likely Retained

When Joe Burrow makes a very clear ask after the season he had, ownership should listen. That's what's happened with Higgins this season, and the Bengals have two avenues in keeping him for 2025; the franchise tag and signing a long-term contract. The long-term contract would be pretty straight forward and would likely get done before free agency even kicks off. Two contracts that Higgins would be negotiated within would be Calvin Ridley's 4-year, $92M contract with $50M guaranteed and CeeDee Lamb's $67M guaranteed. The franchise tag is the under-discussed option. Higgins played on the franchise tag last year, and the Bengals can place a second 1-year franchise tag on him for $26M. That's less annual money than what Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, and Brandon Aiyuk have, so it's a reasonable option for the Bengals, whether Higgins likes it or not. This should be a backup plan for the Bengals as it's the most expensive year over time, but it's also a negotiation tactic the Bengals can use for leverage. Ultimately, 31 out of 32 other teams wouldn't let Higgins walk. I don't think the Bengals will actually let that happen.

9. Chris Godwin Is A Free Agent

Before breaking his tib/fib, Godwin was balling out during his contract season. This isn't his first major surgery either (torn ACL/MCL). The 29-year-old is beloved by the Buccaneers, who have $25M in cap space entering the offseason with both Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans already under contract. I don't think they'd franchise tag him while he's coming back from that injury, so it's a race to re-sign Godwin to a new deal before he hits free agency. I'd guess they get a deal done, but you never know with Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, and their RB tandem making plays on cheap deals during his absence.

10. Davante Adams Is A Cut Candidate

The 33-year-old has $30M in potential cap savings up for grabs with a regular release. If he's kept, then Adams' $38M cap hit would be the highest among all WRs. That seems very unrealistic, but this is partially tied to the Jets' decision on Aaron Rodgers. If they want to re-set their books with a new GM and HC, then both should be out of the picture. A trade would net the Jets the same $30M in cap savings and $8M in dead money, but an acquiring team would be acquiring a $30M cap hit unless a restructure was agreed to. Once again, that seems rich. The easiest answer here is Adams is released to unrestricted free agency. Ditto for Allen Lazard.

11. Deebo Samuel Is A Cut Candidate

This is a difficult-to-trade contract, which explains why he wasn't traded last offseason despite some rumors. Samuel did himself no favors with his play in 2024, likely due to various injuries. Those injuries, however, are a reason why the 49ers made investments in Brandon Aiyuk (X), Jauan Jennings (Z), and Ricky Pearsall (slot) this past offseason. Without a need for him, Samuel's post June 1st release would save $5M against the cap in 2024 and $13M in 2025 when the inevitable Brock Purdy extension begins to kick in. What that means for Samuel's long-term fantasy value has me nervous. He's simply not a fit for everyone, and "everyone" includes far worse play callers than Shanahan. For what it's worth, FB Kyle Juszczyk is a cut candidate as well. Releasing both would be an end of the "bully gadget" era. It looks like Shanahan is heading towards a more normal 3-WR based offense now.

12. Jordan Addison Suspension Is Announced

He took his game to another level in 2024 after another offseason incident behind the wheel. You just never know how long LA County courts are going to take or if a plea deal is struck, but Addison is looking at a multi-game suspension for a DUI arrest where he allegedly fell asleep on the damn 105 freeway near LAX. Anything for 1-4 games would be normal here.

13. Rashee Rice Suspension Is Announced

The complexity of multiple drivers and multiple victims made the Dallas County delay their trail dates for Rice's multi-count felony case. The NFL's Personal Conduct Policy suggests a 4-6 game suspension depending on the findings of the legal case, and that should be resolved this offseason. Quickly after the trial is closed, the NFL will hand out a suspension. Because the Chiefs don't have many answers behind Xavier Worthy if DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown aren't retained (see below), Rice still could have top-60 appeal in best ball formats. His return from a season-ending knee injury (ACL and the very rare PLC) adds to the complexity of his evaluation, however. I don't think people have spent enough time looking at this PLC injury.

14. Chiefs Lose DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown To FA

Heck, even Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman are free agents. The Chiefs are going to be rebuilding this WR room on the fly once again. That's especially true if Rice's unique injury has any setbacks well into the 2025 regular season.

15. Keenan Allen Is A Free Agent

He's expressed a desire to return to the Bears, but Allen will have to fit in with a new coaching staff as a 33-year-old slot-based player. Although he's not a difference-making athlete, Allen still popped up for productive outings with his buddy Caleb Williams. A short-term contract would be the only responsible way to work out a contract for Chicago or any other team. Allen has hinted at only playing in Chicago or Los Angeles if he continues to play. Retirement is on the table.

16. Amari Cooper Is A Free Agent

The 31-year-old didn't get many opportunities to shine in the Bills' balanced offense, and they probably have enough young talent (Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid) to move on from Cooper, while hoping to get more out of under-contract 29-year-old Curtis Samuel. Cooper still can run the most difficult routes in an offense, just with less explosiveness. He might favor a competing team in free agency. I see him as a real life No. 3 receiver for 2025.

17. Stefon Diggs Is A Free Agent

He'll be 32 years old and coming off a torn ACL, so this will not be a straight-forward negotiation, especially with his background. After the Texans lost Tank Dell (dislocated knee, which likely will have career-altering effects) late in the year, Diggs' odds of re-signing shot up. We'll see if he's on pace for Week 1 snaps and if those will come on the Texans or not. It'll be hard to find a better real life and fantasy landing spot for Diggs than in Houston.

18. Christian Kirk Is A Cut Candidate (Maybe)

The Jaguars hit on Brian Thomas in the draft and have guaranteed money tied to Gabe Davis, so the new coaching staff will need to debate Kirk's worth. It's clear Trevor Lawrence loves Kirk, so it won't be easy to save the $11M in potential cap savings by releasing the 29-year-old receiver. His release would also come with $13M in dead money. It's more likely to me that 31-year-old Evan Engram is instead the one to part ways with, as he's not a scheme fit for every coaching staff and is older. Engram's release only saves $6M against the cap with $13M in dead money. That flips to $16M savings and $4M in dead money this year if Engram is designated as a post June 1st release.

19. Cooper Kupp Is A Trade Candidate

He was rumored to be moved before the 2024 NFL Trade Deadline, but the Rams stayed competitive enough to keep things together. Another offseason later could be the difference. Kupp has a $29M cap hit if untouched, far above his actual value. A trade would save $12.5M with $17M in dead money, while the $12.5M would be picked up by the acquiring team. Puka Nacua's expanded role as the go-to motion man is signal that Kupp's skill set isn't as needed moving forward. The Rams also have Demarcus Robinson hitting free agency for what it's worth. Perhaps those Jordan Whittington moments will be worth looking into before the 2025 offseason gets carried away.

20. Michael Pittman Is A Trade Candidate

The Colts have 3 WRs on rookie deals with legit draft capital attached to them; Josh Downs (slot), Alec Pierce (X), and Adonai Mitchell (Z). They complement each other nicely, especially in an already-balanced offense with Anthony Richardson's skillset. Pittman isn't maximized in this set up, making his $13M in potential cap savings via trade appetizing. If a trade went through, the Colts would eat $10M in dead money, and the acquiring team would be on the hook for that $13M during Pittman's age-28 season. There are $0 guarantees beyond 2025.

21. Diontae Johnson Is A Free Agent

The NFL went silent when the Steelers put him on the trade block, and then did so again when the Panthers traded him to the Ravens for a Day 3 pick swap. Baltimore did next to nothing with him before he demanded for his release. It's hard to keep the faith for the up-and-down 29-year-old. The 3rd "prove it" team is a bridge to far for me.

22. Aaron Jones Is A Free Agent

The 31-year-old is likely viewed as a change-of-pace committee member at this point, but Jones largely held his own during his one-year rental with the Vikings. Minnesota hasn't made an investment into their backup RBs yet, so a reunion is on the table. Cam Akers is a free agent.

23. J.K. Dobbins Is A Free Agent

There isn't a team that's going to be as comfortable with his injury history than the one led by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Dobbins was an above-average rusher before his 2024 knee injury in this offense, and the Chargers were committed to using him on 15+ touches weekly. Dobbins is likely to return on another "prove it" deal, and I don't think we'll see Gus Edwards or Hassan Haskins return after very underwhelming campaigns. Dobbins, backup Kimani Vidal, and another power rusher is my current 2025 projection.

24. Rico Dowdle Is A Free Agent

Rico Dowdle hits free agency after dusting Zeke and company late in the year. Dowdle isn't a world-class talent but he does clear the bar of being a stop-gap option if the Cowboys (smartly) want to fix the more important holes in their roster. Dowdle can play in either phase, so finding new counterparts will be easy, whether that's in the draft or free agency. Speaking of, Hall of Fame RG Zack Martin is a free agent as well. Not fun.

25. Najee Harris Is A Free Agent

He seems like an Arthur Smith guy and a beloved member of the locker room, so Harris could return. But Jaylen Warren deserves more opportunities, as we witnessed later in the 2024 season once Harris slowed down. If Harris leaves, the Warren hype will return.

26. Javonte Williams Is A Free Agent

The Broncos drafted power-back Audric Estime and used Jaleel McLaughlin as a change-of-pace back last year, so Williams' skills aren't needed as long as they can find a new pass protector. Perhaps that skill is valued enough by Sean Payton that he returns, but it does seem like a succession plan was made in previous offseasons. I don't think any team will view Williams' early-down work as very valuable, limiting his fantasy appeal moving forward. He's destined for committee work a la Samaje Perine.

27. Nick Chubb Is A Free Agent

It was great to see Chubb return from a devastating knee tear, but he's another year older and is now coming off a broken foot. He won't be relied upon moving forward, rather seeing committee early-down work as an RB3. Jerome Ford is still on his rookie deal as a pass-based back for the Browns. Ford had RB2 moments depending on the matchup.

28. Mark Andrews Is A Cut/Trade Candidate

This one can go either way. The Ravens love Andrews in the red area, but they could also look at his $11M in cap savings and build the TE room through Isaiah Likely. The 30-year-old could even be traded if a team is willing to take on those $11M. Parting ways with Andrews would leave them without some pass-catching depth, however, as Nelson Agholor and Tylan Walllace are all free agents. Even do-everything FB Patrick Ricard is not under contract. Consider Andrews leaving a longer shot but theoretically possible.

29. Kyle Pitts Is A Cut/Trade Candidate

He's in the final year of his rookie contract, one that was signed by a previous regime. OC Zac Robinson didn't feature Pitts' unique skill set, partially because he couldn't win run blocking duties. I don't see how another offseason of game planning fixes things, especially after hitting on Darnell Mooney in free agency. The Falcons would take $0 in dead money by trading him if they can find a team out there willing to take on his $11M cap hit in 2025. Perhaps A-Town has to absorb some of it to facilitate a trade. You know what? That just might be the best thing to happen to Pitts. He must go to a downfield/intermediate based offense for any chance of finding his footing again. It's possible his injury is too much to overcome.

30. The TE Free Agency Class Is Mid

In terms of snaps played, it's Tyler Conklin (30 years old), Zach Ertz (35), Juwan Johnson (29), Austin Hooper (31), Johnny Mundt (31), Mike Gesicki (31). The lone 25-year-old with any pedigree is Tommy Tremble. And the only obvious cut candidates are Evan Engram ($6M cap savings and $13.5M dead money for the Jaguars) and Noah Fant ($9M cap savings with $4.5M in dead money for the Seahawks).

31. Daniel Jones Is A Free Agent

Like Colt McCoy mentioned on Heed The Call, Jones needs to go learn under a stable coaching staff away from the lime light for a year and potentially reshape his career like Sam Darnold did after spending a year with Kyle Shanahan in 2023. That's what Jones has with the Vikings and Kevin O'Connell, but he probably doesn't want to be the QB3 if Darnold returns. Jones was a free agent after going unclaimed late last season and choose the Vikings instead of competing for a job immediately. Perhaps that's a signal that he wants to play for the Shanahan tree while being regrouped.

32. Justin Fields Is A Free Agent

The NFL told us Fields isn't a starting QB when he was traded for a conditional 6th-round pick. He's still a fiery backup with short-yardage potential and could be a bridge QB option for a desperate team. Fields is always beloved by his coaches and teammates, too. His contract should be the cheapest of the somewhat promising free agent QB options, so a team in cap trouble like the Browns, Saints, or Jets could make sense. He'd be a notable backup to Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis if they want to commit to the bit.

33. Raheem Mostert Is A Cut Candidate

The 33-year-old completely regressed behind a tattered OL. With De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright on their rookie deals, it's time to part ways with Mostert. His release saves $3M for the Dolphins. We'll see if he wants to retire. Ditto for 33-year-old free agent Odell Beckham.

34. Tyler Lockett Is A Cut Candidate

The 33-year-old was firmly passed up by Jaxon Smith-Njigba during new OC Ryan Grubb's first season. Lockett can be released with $17M in cap savings and $14M in dead money this year, and the Seahawks could use the cap space. When Lockett is cut, there will be Jake Bobo truthers emerging from the interwebs.

35. Adam Thielen Is A Cut Candidate (Maybe)

The 35-year-old still has ball skills, but the speed has decline. His release would only save $3.4M against the cap with $5M in dead money, so that might not be enough to risk losing the only productive WR Bryce Young had in 2024. The Panthers also have 30-year-old David Moore as a free agent, leaving the receiver room with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker for now. That's brutal. Miles Sanders is a cut candidate as well.

36. The Other Free Agents

Other WR free agents: Elijah Moore, Tim Patrick, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Noah Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, Demarcus Robinson and TuTu Atwell, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Darius Slayton, Josh Palmer, Mike Williams and Van Jefferson, Robert Woods, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, Justin Watson, Sterling Shepard, and David Moore.

Other RB free agents: Kareem Hunt, Ameer Abdullah and Alexander Mattison, Ty Johnson, Cam Akers, Kenneth Gainwell, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, and A.J. Dillon.