Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
I will update through Sunday morning, so come back then for final news reactions, and check out my content on YouTube, podcasts, and X.
Big news for Underdog!!! We have team picks on top of all the player picks. The current deposit offer is play $5 get $50. Team picks available in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin. More details here:
Week 1 Recap
Week 2 RB Rankings
Christian McCaffrey
No Brock Purdy (toe) for this week and potentially for multiple weeks. This is relatively bad news, but Mac Jones is among the better backup QBs and is super conservative in his play-style. Is he capable of handing the ball off and throwing it underneath to CMC? Yes. That's the entire offense right now.
It seemed like last week's practice injury was merely calf cramps, so the 49ers handed him the biggest workload of Week 1 by far (30.7 expected half PPR points). Nothing is expected to change now, especially with George Kittle (IR) and Jauan Jennings (day-to-day) banged up. Who knows if this will last, but the 49ers are going all in on CMC while he's active. His last 21 games as a healthy 49er: 21.8 half PPR points per game.
This is an eruption spot according to the rushing EPA chart below. New DC Brandon Staley has historically used light boxes as league-high rates. That helps RBs.
Derrick Henry - 17.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
What if the Hall Of Fame RB who plays next to the biggest lane-opening QB in NFL history once again breaks models? The Ravens are 1st in projected points (27.75) as 12.0-point home favorites. In 12 wins last year, Henry averaged 131 rushing yards on 21 carries.
Jonathan Taylor - 88.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Despite exiting the game early in blowout fashion, Taylor was the RB3 in usage while playing 100% of the first 43 snaps on offense. It'll be difficult to not produce massive results as this continues, even in bad matchups like this one with the Broncos.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 98.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last year, in 7 games when the Lions scored under 30 points, Gibbs averaged 14.9 half PPR points. That was 24.1 half PPR points in the 11 games when they scored over 30 points. As we saw last week, that trend continued, but things look much better here. The Lions are 3rd in projected points (26.5), and his most recent games against the Bears: 154 and 104 total yards. This is an eruption spot according to the rushing EPA chart below.
The Lions were 1st in neutral run rate last week, and then threw Gibbs 10 targets underneath while chasing points. There's not a game script that's bad for Gibbs, as he was the RB6 in usage last week despite being blown out. It just comes down to getting more push up front with a new interior offensive line. The Lions were 3rd-lowest in yards before contact in Week 1.
Bijan Robinson - 107.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings allowed the lowest RB rushing success rate in Week 1 after ranking 1st in EPA per carry allowed last year. They are the most difficult fantasy RB matchup in the NFL, especially after adding DT Jonathan Allen this offseason. The Falcons are 23rd in projected points (20.5).
Saquon Barkley - 15.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles are 10th in projected points (24.0) in Kansas City. After being the best defense against fantasy RBs in 2024, the Chiefs allowed the 2nd-lowest RB rushing success rate in Week 1, as DT Chris Jones looked close to unblockable once again. Even in their massive Super Bowl blowout win, Barkley was contained to 97 yards on 32 opportunities.
Josh Jacobs - 16.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last year, Jacobs was the RB4 from Week 7 on with Jordan Love in the lineup, averaging 19.0 half PPR points per game. He then handled RB12 usage in Week 1, barreling into the end zone for the 9th-straight game.
The Packers are 5th in projected points (26.0), and this is an eruption spot according to the rushing EPA chart below against a fast-paced and high-scoring Commanders team.
Chase Brown - 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Samaje Perine did lower Brown's overall snap count, but Brown was still the RB5 in usage in Week 1 after seeing 8 touches on the very first drive. Cincy can't block up front and Brown has some film warts, so don't expect the efficiency to be great in normal matchups.
This one leans on the easier side, however. The Jaguars allowed the 2nd-most points to fantasy RBs last year, and Chuba Hubbard was the RB7 overall in Week 2 despite chasing points. The Bengals are 4th in projected points (26.25).
James Conner - 14.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cardinals are 6th in projected points (25.5), as 6.5-point home favorites to the Panthers. In 7 wins last year, Conner averaged 116 total yards on 20.8 opportunities, compared to 77 total yards and 15.3 opportunities in 9 losses. He's up to 17.5 half PPR points in 12 wins under HC Jonathon Gannon. Last week, Conner lost pass-down snaps to Trey Benson but still finished as the RB13 in usage thanks to 3 screens and the goal line role.
This matchup couldn't get better, too. The Panthers allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last year, by far, and then allowed Travis Etienne to gash them for his 2nd-best rushing game of his career. Carolina even faced 10 carries with 6-or-fewer defenders in the box (3rd most of Week 1). This is absolutely an eruption spot.
Kyren Williams - 14.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Nothing changed about his workload. He played 81% snaps, leading to RB9 usage. Equally as important, Matthew Stafford's back looked great. While both of those hold true, there's no reason to think about any offseason FUD. Williams has low-end RB1 potential right now after finishing as the RB14 in Week 1.
The Rams are 11th in projected points (24.0) against the Titans, who allowed big runs to JK Dobbins and R.J. Harvey in the opener. This is a friendlier matchup than Williams' Week 1 opponent Houston.
De'Von Achane - 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Dolphins surprised defenses years ago with new offensive wrinkles, but defenses found solutions. Now it's on the personnel to play better. And they might not have the horses, especially up front. Already suspect, Miami is now without new OG James McDaniels (IR) and RT Austin Jackson. We're probably not going to get the upside of 2022-23 ever again under these conditions.
That said, Achane played 25-of-28 snaps through the 3rd quarter in Week 1 and is a beast himself. It's possible scamming targets to Achane is the answer to combat the obvious OL problems, which is good for him. Last year in 11 Tua Tagovailoa games, he averaged 19.3 half PPR points on 6.1 receptions. He'll need them in Week 2. The Patriots were the best defense in yards before contact per carry in Week 1 vs. Ashton Jeanty. Their defensive line and linebacker play is impressive.
Ashton Jeanty - 92.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
In his debut, Jeanty played 84% snaps but that led to "just" RB15 usage. The Raiders were dead last in yards before contact before carry because of a sub-par offensive line play and an iffy commitment to fixing it, as they have a (super star) "slot WR" who gets tasked with some run blocking assignments at "TE". For those reasons, the Raiders surprised with a league-high 67% neutral pass rate in Week 1. If that continues, Jeanty must catch the ball out of the backfield at a nice clip to pay off his Round 1 ADP. He's capable in the receiving game, but it's a bit of a wild card for now.
The Chargers were 5th-best against fantasy RBs last year, and then held the Chiefs RBs in check last week after adding some more depth at DT this offseason. It's just a really well-coached team in Los Angeles.
James Cook - 72.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was limited on Wednesday with a hamstring injury.
The Bills are 2nd in projected points (26.75), coming off a ridiculous 84-play win last week. That helped Cook finish as the RB5 on RB8 usage. He's been a hyper-efficient player for years, and nothing changed about his role in Week 1. The Bills beat the Jets, 40-14, last year in a game that Cook had 53 yards and 1 touchdown. This team can really block it up, especially with new TE3 Jackson Hawes carving lanes.
Bucky Irving - 84.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It wasn't the insane usage he had in the final 3 games of 2024, but Bucky handled 76% snaps and RB18 usage in Week 1. They only sprinkled in Rachaad White and Sean Tucker while the game was tight. This week is a bigger challenge. The Bucs are just 24th in projected points (20.0), and the Texans were 3rd-best against fantasy RBs last year. This might be the worst situation he's in all year, while they experiment with C Graham Barton as their LT with All Pro Tristan Wirfs sidelined.
Breece Hall - 78.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jets are 25th in projected points (19.75), despite looking fantastic in Week 1. The play-calling fit their skill players, and the OL held up with 1st-round RT Armand Membou playing at a high level against T.J. Watt. As expected, the Jets were 2nd-highest in neutral run rate and let their best ball-carrier (Breece Hall) do the heavy lifting. Hall looked healthy again on RB14 usage.
The Bills were, by far, last in yards before contact per carry last week. I thought their defense looked slow in the secondary, and if DT Ed Oliver wasn't shooting gaps correctly, it looked terrible. Oliver is suddenly in a scooter/walking boot with an ankle injury this week.
Omarion Hampton - 74.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
We can nitpick a couple of incorrect decisions, but Hampton's athleticism stood out in his debut, one that included a wild 80% snap share and RB22 overall usage. We'll see if Najee Harris plays more after being capped at 12 snaps, but this is Hampton's backfield until proven otherwise to me. Coach John Harbaugh was encouraged by his Week 1 tape and offseason work, not a surprise after they spend a damn 1st-round pick on him. The caveat is this team will be a pass-first operation with iffy interior OL blocking. The Chargers were 4th in neutral pass rate in Week 1, which lines up with how they ended the 2024 season. That's okay if they score a lot of points and if Hampton plunges into the end zone.
Los Angeles is 7th in projected points (25.0) against a Raiders defense that lost DT Christian Wilkins, S Trevon Moehrig, LB Robert Spillane, SCB Nate Hobbs, and LB Divine Deablo this offseason. It's one of the worst front sevens in the NFL.
Chuba Hubbard - 12.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Even in a miserable loss where Bryce Young played terribly, Hubbard paid off. He was the RB8 on RB11 usage, even playing in catch-up mode despite the addition of Rico Dowdle. Hubbard handled 16 carries and 5 targets in a 50% neutral pass rate offense. When they can dictate script, the ball will go to Hubbard a ton. In 4 wins last year, he averaged 22.3 carries compared to 12.5 carries in 7 losses by 15+ points. Getting LT Icky Ekwonwu would held the current 6.5-point spread.
The Panthers are 29th in projected points (19.0), but this is an eruption spot according to the rushing EPA chart. The Cardinals were 26th in rushing success rate in 2024 and faced the 5th-most carries with 6-or-fewer defenders in the box in Week 1 (9 carries). This is a defense that'll go with another safety in leiu of another front-seven defender. Advantage, RBs.
Tony Pollard - 13.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
In 5 games without Tyjae Spears last year, Pollard averaged 24.2 touches per game on 85% snaps. Then in Week 1, he was the RB20 usage in Week 1 on 89% snaps.
The matchup is easier with the Rams, who faced the most carries against light boxes (11) last week, and typically invite the run. The Titans were 7th-highest in neutral run rate last week in an attempt to keep rookie QB Cam Ward balanced. Unfortunately, this team is still 31st in projected points (18.25).
Travis Etienne - 78.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is an eruption spot according to the rushing EPA chart. The Bengals are 28th in rushing EPA and 29th in rushing success rate since 2024, and even though they were successful stopping the Browns in Week 1, 4th-round rookie Dylan Sampson still paid off with 8 receptions.
Everything about the last month has been positive for Etienne, from the Tank Bigsby trade to coaching quotes to his RB17 usage in Week 1. Etienne looked comfortable in a RB-friendly Liam Coen offense in the opener to the tune of having his 2nd-best rushing yard game of his career. 4th-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten threatens long-term, but now is not the time to worry and if Etienne plays like he did when he had back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons, then it'll never really matter. He looks healthy right now after playing through a hamstring injury in 2024.
Javonte Williams - 72.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 1 couldn't have gone better for him. He played 77% of the snaps with rookie Jaydon Blue a healthy scratch for preparation and special teams reasons. Miles Sanders was fumbled the ball, had a brutal bounce to the perimeter, and was caught from behind on limited touches. Meanwhile, Williams took both goal-line opportunities into the end zone. Even in a pass-first offense against a dominant Eagles defense, Williams was the RB10 in usage. His tape also looked a bit more powerful in 2025 compared to 2023-24 when he had no juice coming off major knee surgery. Ride this one until the wheels come off (if ever).
The Cowboys are 7th in projected points (25.0) against the Giants, who have some absolute dogs up front. They didn't fully contain Bill Croskey-Merritt and Austin Ekeler in Week 1, however.
Alvin Kamara - 77.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Saints are 29th in projected points (19.0), so it'll just come down to if he can be on the receiving end of more receptions. Despite playing 79% snaps in a more up-tempo offense, Kamara was just the RB24 in usage on just 2 targets (4% share). It's something to closely monitor as we move forward because touchdown opportunities will be few and far between.
Kamara will be chased down by All Pro LB Fred Warner and the 49ers this week. They just kept the lid on Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.
Jordan Mason - 65.5 rushing yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings are 10th in projected points (24.0) as 3.5-point home favorites. This is a matchup to run the ball. The Falcons were 3rd-worst in yards before contact per carry in Week 1, and the Vikings were 41% neutral pass rate in the opener behind a much-improved OL.
Mason looked great in his debut and walked away with more expected half PPR points (9.8) than Aaron Jones did. In a new-styled offense, Mason is the beneficiary. He was the RB25 in usage.
D'Andre Swift - 74.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
His rushing style is maddening, but unless 7th-rounder Kyle Monangai or Roschon Johnson step up, the Bears are going to live and die by him in the short-term. Swift was the RB15 in usage in Week 1 but had a 14% success rate on the ground.
This is a revenge game for him against the Lions, who faced the 2nd-fewest carries with 6-or-fewer defenders in the box. They typically load things up front.
David Montgomery - 57.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It was an ugly opener in every way, including in yards before contact per carry (3rd worst), but the good news is the new play caller called the highest neutral run rate and didn't ice Montgomery's role (RB25 usage). In positive game scripts, Montgomery can't be written off yet. This is one of those matchups.
The Lions are 3rd in projected points (26.5), and last year, Montgomery handled 21-of-30 RB carries against the Bears in a close win.
Kenneth Walker - 59.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Walker wasn't on the injury report heading into last week and practiced plenty in training camp, so the Week 1 rotation is a concern in the short-term. The Seahawks more-or-less rotated drives with Walker and Zach Charbonnet, but they picked Charbs for the 2-minute drill, too. Charbonnet's two goal-line opportunities came on his drive, so we should expect Walker to get his chances down there eventually. Either way, this was not the 2024 split or the one we expected when he was a Round 3-5 selection. Walker will need explosive runs to make up for the lack of overall usage in the meantime. He was the RB29 in usage in Week 1 despite Seattle being 5th-highest in neutral run rate.
On top of that, the Seahawks are 30th in projected points (18.5) this week.
J.K. Dobbins - 61.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Broncos used all 3 active RBs with real roles. Dobbins played the most (53%) snaps and is the heaviest active RB, which should make him the favorite for the most goal line opportunities for now. He was the RB21 in usage despite losing 2-minute drill snaps to Tyler Badie, and if R.J. Harvey adds more explosive runs like he did last week, then his early-down role is threatened.
Things are tougher in Week 2 as well. The team total is down to 22.25 points, and the Colts faced 2 carries with 6-of-fewer defenders in the box (2nd fewest) under new DC Lou Anarumo.
Aaron Jones - 59.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Vikings are 10th in projected points (24.0) as 3.5-point home favorites. This is a matchup to run the ball. The Falcons were 3rd-worst in yards before contact per carry in Week 1, and the Vikings were 41% neutral pass rate in the opener behind a much-improved OL.
The issue for Jones is that Mason hit the ground running and is on pace to lead the team in carries and goal-line issue. Jones was only the RB41 in expected half PPR points last week, which trailed Mason (RB25) straight up. The veteran has been a model dunker his entire career and did just that last week, however. He'll need these wheel-route TDs to live up to ADP.
Jaylen Warren - 9.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Steelers were effective on offense (7th in EPA per play), and Warren was the starter. 3rd-round rookie Kaleb Johnson played just a couple snaps, while Warren compiled RB16 usage in a high-scoring game. He played the 2-minute drill and handled both goal-line carries. He's likely trusted by Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin, so ride this until proven otherwise.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 8.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
It was a beautiful debut for the rookie. His patience in a complicated rushing offense stood out, and he athletically passed the eye test, too. This offense will use a rotation, but Bill will be the lead back sooner rather than later. In fact, from the 2nd quarter on, Bill led the backfield in snaps (41%) and carries (43%), leading to RB30 usage overall. There will be Jayden Daniels and Deebo Samuel limitations to the total ceiling, but Bill is on pace to be a fantasy starter in 12-person leagues.
Unfortunately for this week, the Packers were 6th-best in average depth of tackle in Week 1 vs. the damn Lions and looked like the best overall team in the NFL. Washington's 22.5-point team total is much lower than it'll be in upcoming games.
Tyrone Tracy - 47.5 rushing yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Giants will stink until their OL improves, and the only hope is if LT Andrew Thomas returns from last year's foot surgery. Who knows when that'll be. In Week 1, Tracy did play 74% snaps, leading to RB28 usage. They were completely denied up the middle and couldn't run the ball in the red area. It's only a matter of time before 4th-round rookie Cam Skattebo plays more, after truck-sticking everyone in sight on his 8 snaps.
The Giants are 27th in projected points (19.5), but the Cowboys at least were 2nd-worst against the run last year. They're trying with new DT Kenny Clark now. I just don't trust their LBs.
Dylan Sampson
This assumes Quinshon Judkins is out for at least another week.
The Browns are 32nd in projected points (17.25), and the Ravens were 4th-best against fantasy RBs last year. There's pretty much one way to get home here; PPR scam. Thankfully, Sampson was sensational at just that in Week 1 (8 receptions). His timing/understanding of the offense was great, his hands were even better, and then he made some defenders miss after the catch. The task is harder against Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, and Marlon Humphrey types this week, but Sampson passed the eye test with flying colors. I'd be convinced to move him up a few spots in Full PPR formats. He was the RB15 on RB7 usage in Week 1, while the Browns passed at the 2nd-highest rate in neutral situations.
TreVeyon Henderson - 54.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Patriots passed the ball at the 3rd-highest rate in neutral situations in Week 1, which in theory is decent for Henderson. But this will take some time. Henderson only played 35% snaps, leading to RB25 usage despite seeing 6 targets. He only had 5 carries, lost the 2-minute drill to Rhamondre Stevenson, and is a dog for the goal-line role due to a size disadvantage. I'd like to see more snaps and that 2-minute drill role before moving him up.
The Patriots are projected for 21.0 points in Miami. They are built well up front, and the Patriots are unproven across the offensive line.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 57.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the RB35 in usage in Week 1. See TreVeyon Henderson for more.
Nick Chubb - 52.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Yes, he's the starter, but he lost receiving snaps and isn't going to have a lot of lanes to run through. The Texans OL was a disaster, as expected, but they also lost their C to a high-ankle sprain and might not have their LT either. It's not a fun matchup for a backup center against NT Vita Vea and company. The Bucs were 4th-best in average depth of tackle in Week 1 vs. the Falcons. Chubb had RB37 usage in Week 1 and no longer has the agility of a Pro Bowl rusher on tape.
Zach Charbonnet - 9.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
See Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks are 30th in projected points (18.5).
Austin Ekeler - 7.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
See Bill. RB32 usage in Week 1.
Isiah Pacheco - 7.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt played 5-of-5 snaps in short-yardage situations and 12-of-14 on 3rd-and-longs. Nothing matters until that flips, especially with Andy Reid's outlier pass rate inside the 10-yard line. And for this week. the Eagles were 2nd-best against fantasy RBs last year. He's a bench stash until proven otherwise.
RJ Harvey - 50.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
See JK Dobbins, but Harvey made the most of his RB47 usage in Week 1.
Braelon Allen - 32.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Bhayshul Tuten
Week 2 WR Rankings
Ja'Marr Chase - 17.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jaguars were 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs, but they added slot CB Jourdan Lewis and CB2 Travis Hunter this offseason, and CB1 Tyson Campbell is a real player when healthy like he is right now. This will be a good matchup. Chase doesn't have back-to-back slow weeks. The Bengals are 4th in projected points.
CeeDee Lamb - 83.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR4 in usage last week, and Lamb will hopefully catch the ball this week. The Cowboys are 8th in projected points against the Giants defense that has similar CB problems to the Eagles, where their CB2 is much worse than CB1. Just look at what Deebo Samuel did versus X-receiver Terry McLaurin last week.
Puka Nacua - 13.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Despite only running 23 routes due to stitches (eye), Pukua was the WR9 in usage last week. He's playing more snaps in the slot without Cooper Kupp and being funneled layup targets in addition to all his difficult ones in the intermediate level of the field. When he and Stafford are healthy, he's in the mix for WR1 overall.
Malik Nabers - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR3 in usage last week. Russell Wilson was targeting him on slot fades and other downfield routes. Those will convert soon.
Ladd McConkey - 74.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chargers were 3rd in neutral pass rate in Week 1, after finishing 2024 top-3, too. This is an extreme pass-first offense until proven otherwise. Everyone can eat if Justin Herbert plays to his abilities. He will. McConkey is due to benefit greatly, as he won't always be facing Trent McDuffie and the Chiefs. This week is an eruption spot for their clearly most-talented receiver. The Raiders secondary is among the worst in the NFL, and Los Angeles is 6th in points.
Drake London - 71.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR2 in usage last week. We'll see how much he practices (shoulder) this week.
Justin Jefferson - 75.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR20 in usage last week when the Vikings' neutral pass rate dropped to 5th-lowest on the week. That's something that will work against all pass-catchers, and I think it's sticky. It's a new offense in Minnesota.
That said, JJ is the damn man, and the Falcons have been weak against fantasy WRs. Emeka Egbuka scored twice on post routes, a staple of the Jefferson route tree.
Nico Collins - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR58 in usage last week when the Texans couldn't block Jared Verse and company. They're now onto a backup C and RT due to injuries against NT Vita Vea. Hopefully the Texans get Collins underneath a few times as they work through their troubles up front. Even last week, however, Collins was this close to a long touchdown. He's one of the best receivers in the NFL and CJ Stroud played well in the opener. Things will rebound. I don't like the Bucs secondary right now.
Tee Higgins - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR68 in usage last week, but that'll be the outlier against a division opponent with the pieces at DC, CB, and EDGE to slow down this offense. Jacksonville doesn't. The Jaguars were 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs last year but looked improved at CB2 if Hunter plays outside like expected. Higgins could bully him when they match up. The Bengals are 4th in projected points.
Brian Thomas - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was missed repeatedly by Trevor Lawrence in the opener, but there were schemed up touches called his way despite handedly winning for most of the game. Thomas dropped a screen, scored a touchdown on a carry, and then had a couple of underneath zone window targets. There wasn't anything overly concerning with Week 1 other than Travis Hunter will get equally as many easy targets per game.
Zay Flowers - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR8 in usage last week, despite Baltimore only dropping back two dozen times. He was manufactured multiple touches (3 screens and 2 carries) and has improved as an intermediate receiver. With the Ravens projected for the most points in the NFL this week, this is a time to start Flowers with confidence. He has the potential to be one of the best picks in fantasy this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last week's OL and play-calling flow were a clear step down from last year. Despite trailing the entire game, ARSB only was the WR43 in expected half PPR points. In neutral situations, the Lions called the most run-heavy game plan (36% runs) of the week, too.
Things should look a lot better in Week 2 at home against the Bears (DET: 3rd in projected points), especially with slot CB Kyler Gordon not practicing with a hamstring. He should eat here. If things don't improve this week, the conversation will get much, much louder.
Garrett Wilson - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Davante Adams - 10.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last week's tough performance (WR43 on WR35 usage) can largely be explained by CB1 Derek Stingley seeing Adams, while Puka Nacua sacrificed his face underneath. Adams gets an infinitely easier draw against the Titans secondary, which allowed Courtland Sutton (in the exact Adams role) to get home last week. The Rams are projected for a rock-solid 23.5 points on the road. It's now or never while Stafford looks healthy.
Courtland Sutton - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR10 in usage last week.
Jakobi Meyers
He was the WR21 in usage last week.
Brock Bowers (knee) did not practice on Thursday. I'm expecting him to miss for now.
Tetairoa McMillan - 11.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR24 in usage last week.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 11.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR6 in usage last week on a crazy 57% target share. Keep an eye out for Steelers CB1 Joey Porter's injury status. He hasn't practiced much yet.
A.J. Brown - 10.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Recent targets with Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley in the lineup: 1, 5, 8, 7, 3, 11, 4, 6. That's 5.6 targets per game, while the team is 8-0. He's the most efficient receiver in the NFL against man coverage, but there are only so many dropbacks in the offense and the Cowboys last week played 100% zone coverage. The environment keeps working against Brown, who also didn't look like himself while breaking off his routes in Week 1. At any point, that can change. At some point the baseline needs to get realistic, though.
Tyreek Hill - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Patriots won't have CB1 Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) again. They were hit for multiple chunk plays last week vs. the Raiders. If they can't get going downfield here, then we're in trouble. Hill didn't have a single target off an RPO or screen in Week 1. That's been 1.8 per game since he's been a Dolphin, so something is in the water. On tape, defenses are just getting better at getting depth on their crossing routes over the middle, and Tua can't create after 2.5 seconds. The total upside scenarios are likely gone in Miami. The Steelers and Chiefs are eyeing him in a trade per Mike Florio.
Marvin Harrison - 10.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The usage in Week 1 looked a little different than in 2024, as expected. Harrison caught his first NFL screen and was schemed up on a mesh concept at the goal line, but more importantly he had two great wins against man coverage (1 slant and 1 over-the-shoulder go ball). In totality, Marv was the WR28 in usage. That's the improvement needed to live up to ADP hype. This week, the Cardinals have the 6th-highest team total against a pretty bad Panthers defense. CB1 Jaycee Horn is one of their best players for what it's worth, and I expect a dominant rushing attack from Arizona.
Ricky Pearsall - 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Brock Purdy (toe) means Mac Jones in the Shanahan offense. This is a downgrade for sure. Purdy can create and is more aggressive throwing downfield and into tight windows than Jones is. That's where Pearsall wins, even though he's billed as an underneath slot receiver. That said, Pearsall is the clear pass-game focus right now with George Kittle (IR) and Jauan Jennings likely out. Pearsall can be manufactured touches and create after the catch, so his floor is higher than others in this situation. Last week against a difficult opponent, he was the WR18 in usage. The Saints defense is an easier matchup, especially if EDGE1 Chase Young can't play. Marvin Harrison Jr. had a big game in Week 1 against them. The 49ers are still projected for 21.75 points.
Marquise Brown - 11.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR1 overall in usage. Xavier Worthy lightly practiced on Thursday but still would be surprised if he played in Week 2. This assumes he's out. More on him later on.
Keenan Allen - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR13 in usage last week, and here are his targets with Justin Herbert: 10, 12, 9, 16, 16, 15. Granted, most of those were before Ladd McConkey was a teammate, but there is real potential here. There's history of productive age-33 receivers, especially ones who thrive in the slot, and Allen looked good in Week 1. He's a zone savant and is physical at the line-to-gain. He only played in 3-WR sets, however, so the Chargers will need to stay pass-committed to pay off. It's sharp that L.A. was 3rd in neutral pass rate in Week 1. It works.
Mike Evans - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Emeka Egbuka - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chris Olave - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR5 in usage last week, and it looked totally different (as I expected). Despite being in the injury tent at times, Olave set a career-best 9 targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. This is a new-styled offense under Kellen Moore, one that will play with pace and more underneath passing. Alvin Kamara only had a 4% target share, meaning more targets are available for Olave and company. The touchdown odds are low because the Saints are only projected for 18.75 points, but the weekly floor for Olave is much better than it was in previous years.
Deebo Samuel - 10.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR17 in usage last week, and equally as important, looked healthy. Deebo converted multiple intermediate throws in addition to scoring a diving touchdown on a sweep. The fun part of the offense will be centered around his skills, while McLaurin runs the hardcore routes downfield. Deebo is ripe for red zone usage without an established power back, too.
This week's matchup is a tough one. The Packers are built well at LB and S, plus run a slow-paced balanced offense on the other side of the ball. Things will look better if new CB Nate Hobbs is unable to play.
Calvin Ridley - 8.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He won't face CB1 Patrick Surtain every week, and he won't drop two passes either. Ridley is a bounce back candidate, and the Cam Ward film was largely decent considering the environment. Ridley was the WR30 in usage. He'll have to overcome the Titans' No. 31 projected point total as usual.
George Pickens - 53.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 8th in projected points against the Giants defense that has similar CB problems to the Eagles, where their CB2 is much worse than CB1. Hopefully Pickens gets more matchups with CB2 this week after being sacrificed to Quinyon Mitchell last week. There'd be fewer comments on Pickens if we got credit for his 37-yard DPI (and potential touchdown). Pickens is a bounce back candidate.
Terry McLaurin - 10.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's only one game, but Deebo Samuel looked excellent and McLaurin only had WR64 expected half PPR points. He'll be tasked with the most difficult matchups and routes in the playbook as the X-receiver, so Jayden Daniels can't miss him on potential 69-yard scores like he did in Week 1. Expect a rollercoaster season from McLaurin, especially if Deebo stays healthy.
This week is a challenge with Micah Parsons and company facing a rookie RT up front. The Packers also have speed at LB and one of the best deep safeties in the NFL. It's a bad matchup.
Travis Hunter - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He will "likely" play more CB this week because the Bengals have demons at WR. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll play fewer WR snaps, but it does add more uncertainty. Last week, the Jaguars had him in just about every 3-WR set as the slot receiver running a lot of choice routes underneath but didn't play him in any heavier personnel grouping. He was missed by Trevor Lawrence on his downfield target but connected on a handful of his underneath looks. Hunter was the WR25 in half PPR usage last week.
DeVonta Smith - 9.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Nothing has really changed. He's a boom-bust asset on WR5 volume. Smith needs touchdowns to pay off. If Dallas Goedert is out, then he gets a target share bump. The Chiefs were specifically vulnerable in the slot last year once CB1 Trent McDuffie starting playing outside. That's an advantage for Smith here.
DJ Moore - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR37 in usage last week in a good matchup for him, and it was notable they threw him 0 screens. The Lions will play a lot more man coverage in this matchup, so it's on Moore to just win. His 1.31 yards per route against man coverage was lower than it was otherwise. He's going to need Ben Johnson to give him easier targets to pay off his ADP.
Rome Odunze - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR12 in usage last week.
Quentin Johnston - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR19 in usage last week as a near full-time player in an explosive, pass-first offense. The Chargers were 3rd in neutral pass rate with a top-5 passing quarterback, and are projected for the 7th-most points against a bad Raiders defense this week. This ranking is pricing in a couple of drops from QJ. If he catches everything, there is a real ceiling to chase. He'll face "Kyu Blu Kelly" in coverage.
Keon Coleman - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's an every-route starter for an offense 2nd in projected points. Coleman is a target in the red zone as we saw last week, and he has some on-tape year two breakout appeal. Be wary of copy/pasting last week's usage (WR7 overall) as the Bills ran an unsustainable 84 plays, largely in comeback mode. His 24% target share is still quite encouraging.
This week's individual matchup will be a challenge, as CB1 Sauce Gardner awaits. The Jets were 4th-best against fantasy WRs last year.
DK Metcalf - 12.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's a revenge game for Metcalf, which isn't good in his case. The Seahawks are loaded on defense, and the Steelers offense can get very conservative in these type of matchups. Last week, Metcalf debuted with a 23% target share because 8-of-9 screen plays went to other players. That made him the WR45 in usage. He'll be tasked with the hardest routes as the X receiver. That means a matchup with Riq Woolen and quality safeties in Week 2.
Jerry Jeudy - 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR16 in usage last week.
Rashid Shaheed - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR25 in usage last week.
Michael Pittman - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Over his past 17 healthy games removing all games after his Week 6 back injury last year, Pittman is on pace for 106-1173-5. Will that continue? Not exactly, after seeing Tyler Warren in Week 1 and Josh Downs last year. But that's a whole lot better than where he was drafted this offseason. In Week 1, Pittman had WR31 usage and even led all receivers with 3 targets off RPOs. Those are usually gimme looks underneath, and one of them even came on a play with 3 tight ends on the field. Pittman looked healthy again and the offense is one suited for his skills within 15 yards.
This week will be a very real challenge. CB1 Patrick Surtain is the best in the game and even CB2 Riley Moss is a dog with 1st-round rookie Jahdae Barron also in the mix.
Jaylen Waddle - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was limited in both practices so far (shoulder).
Khalil Shakir - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Like last year, Shakir was a 3-WR set player only and will largely be featured underneath. There's more competition around him this year, but he still had a 20% target share in Week 1. He won't run as many routes this week with the Bills sitting as 6.5-point favorites, but Shakir is in the flex mix in Full PPR leagues. Buffalo is 2nd in projected points and he won't see CB1 Sauce Gardner in this matchup.
Jameson Williams - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Last week's OL and play-calling flow were a clear step down from last year. Despite trailing the entire game, Jamo only was the WR44 in expected half PPR points. In neutral situations, the Lions called the most run-heavy game plan (36% runs) of the week, too.
Things should look a lot better in Week 2 at home against the Bears (DET: 3rd in projected points), but that defense was 2nd-best against fantasy WRs last year. If things don't improve this week, the conversation will get much, much louder. It looks like CB1 Jaylon Johnson will play, while slot CB Kyler Gordon is trending towards out.
Romeo Doubs - 7.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
I'm putting the Packers receivers basically back-to-back. Here's why. Last week, routes were distributed between Doubs (18/24), Golden (14), and Reed (12), who only played in 3-WR sets as usual. Those numbers will all increase this week against a fast-paced Commanders team, and historically coach LaFleur has dominated coach Dan Quinn. LaFleur can scheme up downfield shot plays against this man coverage and Cover 3 defense. Any of these receivers can be the beneficiary of them. I'd like to see more Golden manufactured touches here, but they have plenty of mouths to feed and Reed somehow looked healthy on a broken foot. All of them are "better in best ball". Reed and Doubs were WR40 and WR41 in expected half PPR points last week for what it's worth. The Packers are 4th in projected points.
Matthew Golden - 6.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
I'm putting the Packers receivers basically back-to-back. Here's why. Last week, routes were distributed between Doubs (18/24), Golden (14), and Reed (12), who only played in 3-WR sets as usual. Those numbers will all increase this week against a fast-paced Commanders team, and historically coach LaFleur has dominated coach Dan Quinn. LaFleur can scheme up downfield shot plays against this man coverage and Cover 3 defense. Any of these receivers can be the beneficiary of them. I'd like to see more Golden manufactured touches here, but they have plenty of mouths to feed and Reed somehow looked healthy on a broken foot. All of them are "better in best ball". The Packers are 4th in projected points.
Jayden Reed - 7.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
I'm putting the Packers receivers basically back-to-back. Here's why. Last week, routes were distributed between Doubs (18/24), Golden (14), and Reed (12), who only played in 3-WR sets as usual. Those numbers will all increase this week against a fast-paced Commanders team, and historically coach LaFleur has dominated coach Dan Quinn. LaFleur can scheme up downfield shot plays against this man coverage and Cover 3 defense. Any of these receivers can be the beneficiary of them. I'd like to see more Golden manufactured touches here, but they have plenty of mouths to feed and Reed somehow looked healthy on a broken foot. All of them are "better in best ball". The Packers are 4th in projected points.
Darnell Mooney
He's been limited in practice so far, as he was last week before being ruled out.
Kayshon Boutte - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Calvin Austin - 7.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Browns project for the most points of Week 2, but Bateman will see CB1 Denzel Ward outside. He might be sacrificed here. He's TD-or-bust as usual.
Josh Downs - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
DeMario Douglas - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He was the WR8 in usage last week but did very little with it.
Tyquan Thornton - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Xavier Legette - 7.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 6.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Marvin Mims - 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Elic Ayomanor - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tre Tucker
Jauan Jennings
He avoided a major injury, but he was a DNP on Wednesday and Brock Purdy is unlikely to play. I'm guessing he misses a game or two.
Week 2 Flex Projections
Coming soon!
These are not my personal projections, nor do they cover every single player, but they are generally very good and come from the Underdog Pick'em lobby. I will be answering sit/start questions on YouTube this Sunday morning.
Week 2 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson
Ravens are 1st in projected points (28.25) vs. CLE.
Josh Allen
Bills are 2nd in projected points (26.25) at NYJ.
Jalen Hurts - 21.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Eagles are 9th in projected points (24.0) at KC.
Joe Burrow
Bengals are 5th in projected points (26.0) vs. JAX.
Jayden Daniels - 21.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Commanders are 13th in projected points (22.5) at GB.
Justin Herbert
Chargers are 6th in projected points (25.0) vs. LV.
Kyler Murray
Cardinals are 6th in projected points (25.0) vs. CAR.
Jordan Love - 16.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Packers are 4th in projected points (26.25) vs. WAS.
Justin Fields
Jets are 27th in projected points (19.75) vs. BUF.
Patrick Mahomes - 19.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chiefs are 15th in projected points (22.5) vs. PHI.
Dak Prescott
Cowboys are 8th in projected points (24.5) vs. NYG.
Bo Nix
Broncos are 12th in projected points (22.75) at IND.
The Colts had multiple starters go down with an injury, then won't have CB Charvarius Ward (concussion) this week. Let's pay attention to EDGE Laiatu Latu not practicing, too.
Jared Goff
Lions are 3rd in projected points (26.25) vs. CHI.
Let's pay attention to LT Taylor Decker not practicing. That's big.
Drake Maye
Patriots are 21st in projected points (21.0) at MIA.
Caleb Williams
Bears are 24th in projected points (20.25) at DET.
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars are 14th in projected points (22.5) at CIN.
J.J. McCarthy
Vikings are 9th in projected points (24.0) vs. ATL.
Matthew Stafford - 16.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Rams are 11th in projected points (23.5) at TEN.
Daniel Jones
Colts are 22nd in projected points (20.75) vs. DEN.
Geno Smith
Raiders are 19th in projected points (21.5) vs. LAC.
Baker Mayfield
Bucs are 26th in projected points (20.0) at HOU.
Michael Penix
Falcons are 23rd in projected points (20.5) at MIN.
Tua Tagovailoa
Dolphins are 13th in projected points (22.5) vs. NE.
C.J. Stroud
Texans are 16th in projected points (22.5) vs. TB.
Bryce Young - 14.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Panthers are 29th in projected points (18.5) at ARI.
Aaron Rodgers - 15.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Steelers are 20th in projected points (21.25) vs. SEA.
Mac Jones
49ers are 18th in projected points (21.75) at NO.
Joe Flacco
Browns are 32nd in projected points (16.75) at BAL.
Cam Ward - 11.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Titans are 31st in projected points (18.0) vs. LAR.
Sam Darnold - 12.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Seahawks are 30th in projected points (18.25) at PIT.
Spencer Rattler
Saints are 28th in projected points (18.5) vs. SF.
Russell Wilson
There is some in-game bench risk now, and Giants are 25th in projected points (20.0) at DAL. His upside is much higher than this ranking for what it's worth.
Week 2 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Travis Kelce - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tyler Warren - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Mark Andrews - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Juwan Johnson - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He had 9 first-read targets per FTN.
T.J. Hockenson - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Zach Ertz - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Harold Fannin - 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Dalton Kincaid - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Brenton Strange - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
David Njoku - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Chig Okonkwo - 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cade Otton - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Colston Loveland - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Theo Johnson - 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Mason Taylor - 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Ja'Tavion Sanders - 21.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 2 DEF
The best defenses of Week 2 are the Ravens, Rams, Broncos, Texans, and 49ers. The sneaky defenses are the Cardinals, Vikings, Lions, Seahawks, and Bucs.