Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
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Week 2 Recap
Week 3 RB Rankings
Bijan Robinson - 17.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB4 on RB2 usage, and the Falcons are 7th in projected points against the pathetic Panthers, who easily allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in 2024 and are up to 5.7 YPC to RBs this year. Bijan contributed to that with 173 and 105 total yards with 4 combined scores in his two outings vs. them last year. Atlanta is 29th in neutral pass rate right now as an added element.
Christian McCaffrey - 110.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB5 on RB1 usage with a position-high 17 targets, including a touchdown from the damn slot.
Jonathan Taylor - 17.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB3 on RB3 usage. Taylor is at 92% snaps through 3 quarters this year (removing Week 1's blowout).
This is an eruption spot per EPA matchups against the Titans, who didn't have DT T'Vondre Sweat last week and are allowing 5.5 YPC to RBs this season.
Derrick Henry - 88.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB8 on RB32 usage.
The Ravens are 2nd in projected points (28.75) as 5.5-point hosts to the Lions.
James Cook - 15.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB1 on RB6 usage. Turns out, the very good player in an elite offense with an entirely-returning OL is going to break models again, just as he did in 2024 when he was the RB8 overall.
This is an eruption spot per EPA matchups against the Dolphins. The Bills are 1st in projected points (30.75) as 12-point home favorites. Miami's defensive line is a strength on paper, but they're dead last in pass-rush win rate and have given up explosives to backs so far, too.
De'Von Achane - 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB6 on RB17 usage.
This is an eruption spot per EPA matchups against the Bills, even if the Dolphins are projected for the 4th-fewest points (18.75). When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and in games when they're projected to lose by 12 damn points especially in September, Achane projects for legit WR2-level targets in addition to anything on the ground. He's at 14 targets so far, and against the Bills last year he had 8 and 7 receptions with 121 and 165 total yards. The Bills defense looks mediocre and slow on tape, has allowed a league-high 6.1 YPC to RBs, and DT Ed Oliver (ankle) is unlikely to play. I've taken his higher on total yards.
Saquon Barkley - 16.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles are 10th in projected points (24.0) in a projected close game with the DL-strong Rams. Saquon had a casual 232 total yards with 2 scores against them in the NFL Playoffs last year.
He's the RB9 on RB4 usage, and this version of the Eagles has been even more run-heavy:
Jahmyr Gibbs - 84.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB14 on RB9 usage.
The Lions are "only" projected for 22.75 points (league average) in a tough matchup in Baltimore. Since last year, Gibbs has averaged 23.6 half PPR points when the Lions clear 30 points as a team (12 games) versus 14.3 when they're under that (8 games). There are so many mouths to feed in this offense that a real decrease in expected points does really hurt player projections. Of course, the Lions can go crazy at any point.
Josh Jacobs - 14.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB13 on RB8 usage so far, after finishing as the RB4 with Jordan Love from Week 7 on last year.
The Packers are 6th in projected points (25.0) as 8.5-point road favorites, but the Browns have held RBs to 2.1 YPC so far with Myles Garrett playing out of his mind. We'll see if star RT Zach Tom and RG Aaron Banks can suit up this week after missing Week 2. Their statuses will move Jacobs' ranking.
Bucky Irving - 15.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB16 on RB14 usage.
This is an eruption spot per EPA matchups against the Jets. The Bucs are 3rd in projected points (25.75) as 7-point home favorites, even though LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) and now RT Luke Goedeke (foot) are hurt.
Javonte Williams - 13.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Everything about his production is real. 75% snaps, goal line role, and can stay in for pass protection. On top of that, he's played well and even showed some explosiveness on his Week 2 touchdown. Don't expect the unreliable backups, Miles Sanders and healthy-scratched rookie Jaydon Blue, anytime soon. Williams is the RB2 on RB7 usage through two weeks and was the RB4 in usage last week. That said, this offensive line took a hit with stud C Cooper Beebe out 1-2 months, and they had holes at tackle spots already.
This is an eruption spot per EPA matchups against the Bears. The Cowboys are 9th in projected points (24.25).
Jordan Mason - 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
No Aaron Jones (hamstring) for weeks, and he's getting a QB upgrade this week with Carson Wentz over JJ McCarthy. It's unclear if they'll give Mason the pass-game work because that isn't his strength, but it's possible they do with only Zavier Scott and Ty Chandler backing him up. Through two horrific games on a league-low 95 total plays, the Vikings have combined for 13.3 expected half PPR points. That's a fair projection for Mason at home against the Bengals. At the podium, coach Kevin O'Connell said, "I'm not sure we could have much more confidence in Jordan as a bellcow kind of back."
Travis Etienne - 11.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jaguars are 7th in RB usage under coach Liam Coen, and Etienne is the clear top dog right now (RB7 on RB12 usage). He closed the game out last week and has also added a position-high 4 targets on screens through 2 weeks. I can see more screen involvement here against a robust Texans' pass rush, but this is generally a tougher matchup. Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Kyren Williams all had RB2-level games against them so far.
Alvin Kamara - 12.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB15 on RB11 usage, but Week 2 was much better than Week 1 because of some additional screens (19.0 expected half PPR points as the volume RB2 overall). That matches what he's been for years, so it's possible Week 1 is the outlier and Kamara is back into the fantasy RB1 mix. I've been pleased with coach Kellen Moore and the entire skill group, even if it won't lead to many wins. The Saints are 1st in quickest to snap the ball.
The Saints are only projected for 17 points in Seattle against maybe the best defense in the NFL, but they've at least allowed the most RB receptions (19) through 2 weeks.
Ashton Jeanty - 73.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB29 on RB20 usage through two weeks and even dipped to RB24 usage last week with Dylan Laube and the boys entering in on obvious passing situations. That may not stick long term, but that's concerning for now. Jeanty needs all the touches he can get with the Raiders giving him the fewest yards before contact among NFL starters. That's -4 yards, worse than what you and I have gotten while sitting on our damn couches. He still looks like a physical tackle breaker on tape, but the environment around him is suspect and I don't see that largely changing.
The Commanders have a DL advantage over the Raiders' OL. They've only allowed 3.0 YPC to RBs so far. This is a cross-country early-start game on shorter rest to make matters slightly worse.
Tony Pollard - 13.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB27 on RB25 usage, despite the Titans being last in touchdowns (1) and total yards (385). Those were two impossible matchups for a rookie QB, especially without his former 1st-round RT J.C. Latham last week, but things look cleanest here. Tennessee is up to 20.0 projected points back at home against the Colts. Pollard is at 89% snaps this year.
D'Andre Swift - 11.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB20 on RB18 usage. It's been brutal for the Bears because even though he's 4th in yards before contact, the rushing output is bottom-3 in EPA per carry and success rate. His fumble hurt. His vision is even worse. There's nobody available to threaten Swift at the moment, but this is an unsustainable situation for Chicago. I'd sell high while he's eating all of these snaps, or maybe just after this week...
The Bears are 3rd in projected points (25.75) at home against the Cowboys, who have some of the worst LB and S play of the year so far.
Kenneth Walker - 67.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Seahawks are 7th in projected points (24.5) as 7.5-point favorites to the Saints. This is a huge spot for him, especially if EDGE1 Chase Young can't play again.
He's the RB21 on RB30 usage. It's the same drive-by-drive rotation with Walker starting and Zach Charbonnet seeing the 2-minute drill situations. This feels like the worst it's going to get because Walker could easily force the issue based on his explosive play. It's clear to me that Walker is in a tier above Charbs, who is still solid himself. I'd largely play Walker on early downs and Charbs on passing downs if I were the Seahawks. This ranking middles both of those scenarios.
Breece Hall - 12.3 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB23 on RB24 usage.
The Tyrod Taylor-led Jets are projected for 3rd-fewest points (18.75) against the Bucs, who are the defense with the closest average depth of tackle at just 2.4 yards downfield on RB carries. They'll at least be without DT Kalijah Cancey (pectoral).
Chuba Hubbard - 11.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB10 on RB13 usage, despite playing in the worst game scripts for him in both games. Hubbard being targeted 5 and 6 times in those is a good sign that the Rico Dowdle signing only matters so much.
Unfortunately, the Panthers lost star RG Rob Hunt for the year and C Austin Corbett for months this week. With this team attempting to be balanced, this cannot be over stressed. Carolina has dropped to 5th-fewest points this week (19.0). At least the Falcons are light in the shorts on the defensive line, so perhaps this is a week where he can survive and advance.
James Conner - 66.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB17 on RB19 usage. This has only mattered at the margins, but Trey Benson is playing more snaps in 2025 than he has previously. It's enough to keep Conner out of the top-12 conversation, which was one last year.
The 49ers are a very difficult matchup because they already had stars and 1st-round EDGE Mykel Williams looks like a dude against the run already. Arizona is projected for 21.5 points as a team, slightly lower than normal for them while on the road.
Chase Brown - 13.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB25 on RB5 usage, making him the least efficient player in my model so far. It's not entirely his fault behind this OL, but things only look worse without Joe Burrow. He'll need the scammed receptions to pay off with the Bengals' team total down to 19.75 points (6th-fewest). Brown had a 31% targets per route without Burrow for what it's worth. I'm operating this situation as a sell low. It's likely just over as a top-15 fantasy back now.
Jaylen Warren - 12.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Patriots have allowed 2.5 YPC to RBs so far--hello DT Milton Williams--and look more like a pass funnel for as long as CB1 Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is out.
He's the RB12 on RB15 usage after ripping a massive play in a scramble drill last week. There's no reason to believe 3rd-round rookie Kaleb Johnson is going to be phased into the offense this week.
J.K. Dobbins - 10.1 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Chargers are without EDGE1 Khalil Mack (elbow), but they've been amazing on defense as a whole and have two stars over the middle in LB Daiyan Henley and LB/S Derwin James.
He's the RB11 on RB16 usage, and last week was very bullish. On 3 separate drives, Dobbins had a goal-line opportunity despite RJ Harvey playing on that drive. Until proven otherwise, this is Dobbins' high-value touch starting gig with Tyler Badie on 2-minute drives and Harvey as a change-of-pace complement. Dobbins has done nothing with his play for this rotation to change right now.
Kyren Williams - 12.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB19 on RB10 usage, but Week 2 was worse than Week 1. His snaps fell from 90% down to 70%, which allowed Blake Corum to cash in a goal-line carry in the second half. Williams' lack of explosiveness means any dip in snaps goes a long way. After the game, Sean McVay said he's like Kyren getting two-thirds of the work, with Corum getting the rest. If so, Williams is more of an RB2 than RB1 in fantasy.
Keep an eye out for RG Steve Avila on the injury report. The Rams OL has been suspect while dealing with some bruises up front, and they face the Eagles this week. Los Angeles is only projected for 20.5 points this week.
Cam Skattebo
He's the RB34 on RB29 usage, but that's underselling him. After the 1st quarter ended last week, it was the Skattebo show, and he looked sick. Skattebo converted his goal-line opportunity for a score as the thicccccest back on the roster, and he had 99th percentile receiving production among drafted RBs since 2005. If he hits, Skattebo is a very fantasy-friendly back. The fact that he had 13.9 expected half PPR points in Week 2 (RB15) is very bullish as a 4th-round rookie. It sounds like star LT Andrew Thomas (foot) has a chance to play this week.
David Montgomery - 53.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB26 on RB21 usage. The Lions remain a balanced offense, and Montgomery really hasn't been phased out much. He had a goal-line touchdown last week and has been in the mix in both game scripts. That was 10.2 expected half PPR points in the blowout loss and 12.9 in their blowout win. This is neutral game script against the Ravens, who typically drain a lot of clock on offense themselves.
Omarion Hampton - 10.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB43 on RB22 usage. The short-term risk is up after a late-game fumble and failing to convert his goal-line opportunities on Monday Night Football. The Chargers also didn't have him on the field for a 4th-and-1 play in the 4th quarter, so something is in the water. Najee Harris played a lot more in the second half and didn't do anything wrong. If this becomes a more even committee, then the margins are really thin in the league's most pass-heavy offense through two weeks. Hampton is capable of making up for all of this with explosive runs. He also needs them at this point.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
He's the RB31 on RB44 usage so far. Those will go up. Austin Ekeler's replacement will largely be Jeremy McNicols, who has been trusted in the pass game, but Ekeler was mixing in on early-downs, too. Some of that will funnel to Bill and to a lesser extent Chris Rodriguez. It all comes down to the explosive runs and goal-line role for Bill. He showed patience and explosiveness in Week 1, but the goal-line role is a question mark still. It's unlikely that Bill goes from unused in the pass-game in college to being a bellcow in Week 3 of his rookie season, so there's a cap to the ceiling for him right now. Through two weeks, the Commanders are 27th in RB usage, and this is likely a committee approach with both Jayden Daniels and Deebo Samuel competing for goal-line runs.
The Commanders are 10th in projected points (24.0) while hosting the traveling west-coast Raiders, who lost on Monday night, for an early kickoff.
Rhamondre Stevenson - 10.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB22 on RB28 usage, and unlike his counterpart, Stevenson is trusted right now. That trend should hold in the short-term, and it's likely that the big dog will get the goal-line opportunities even if the split tightens. Stevenson is still losing touches to both TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson, however, and the Patriots are only projected for 21.25 points. He's a low-end flex play right now, while the Patriots are 29th in neutral pass rate.
Nick Chubb - 10.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB24 on RB31 usage, but Chubb is also last among qualifying rushers in yards after contact this year and the Texans OL is largely in shambles. I don't like their odds against the Jaguars 1-2 edge rushing punch. Chubb remains a TD-or-bust RB3 with rookie Woody Marks entering in for passing downs. I'd sell high on Chubb after getting some ROI on him in the last rounds of drafts.
Quinshon Judkins - 8.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Browns are projected for the fewest points (16.5) vs. maybe the best defense in the NFL (Green Bay), and this offense is 7th in neutral pass rate. Everything works against Judkins here, including his RB37 usage. That said, Judkins was an instant stand out on tape. He broke tackles on the ground, ran hard, and made good cutbacks on his limited reps. His 31-yard run was probably a top-3 carry of the week. Expect him to lead the backfield in touches and all goal-line carries, while fellow rookie Dylan Sampson works in on pass downs. Hopefully Jerome Ford gets phased out sooner than later.
Tyler Allgeier - 6.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB30 on RB26 usage. The Falcons are 7th in projected points against the pathetic Panthers, who easily allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in 2024 and are up to 5.7 YPC to RBs this year.
Najee Harris
See Hampton, Omarion.
Zach Charbonnet
He's the RB40 on RB27 usage. See Walker, Kenneth.
Bhayshul Tuten
He's the RB33 on RB45 usage. The 4th-round rookie had 8.0 expected half PPR points last week and made the most of them. Tuten could have deeper-league flex value sooner than you'd think.
TreVeyon Henderson - 7.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the RB37 on RB40 usage, and Henderson's snaps and expected half PPR points (3.7) dropped last week after a horrific showing in pass protection. That was his calling card as a prospect, and it's hard to earn the trust back short-term. Equally worrisome is Antonio Gibson playing before the pass-protection woes surfaced. This is a 3-back committee right now with Henderson the least likely to arrive at the goal line. He's a bench stash only who will need the explosive play to close the large gap ahead of him.
Isiah Pacheco - 52.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tyrone Tracy - 50.5 total yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Dylan Sampson
Week 3 WR Rankings
CeeDee Lamb - 81.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 2nd in quickest to snap the ball.
Puka Nacua - 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Malik Nabers - 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Justin Jefferson - 71.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Nico Collins - 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Brian Thomas - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's been terrible. As it was during his rookie season, Thomas has been a liability against zone coverage. He and Trevor Lawrence, who has very real accuracy problems, are never on the same page unless BTJ is running by man coverage defenders. This should get better the longer coach Liam Coen works with both, and the explosive plays will bounce back in the mean time. Thomas is a major buy low target after struggling on WR3 overall through two weeks. He nearly scored a touchdown and then might've housed an underneath target if a ball wasn't batted down at the line of scrimmage. His ceiling path opens up more if Travis Hunter continues to play more CB. As a reminder, the Jaguars collectively are 2nd in WR usage. We know where this ends up funneling to.
Tetairoa McMillan - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell (hamstring) is out.
The Panthers are 1st in WR usage, thanks to back-to-back comeback attempts. That said, they are competent enough to move the ball in those situations, and McMillan continues to show up. He's beating man coverage in every way (in-route YAC, hitch YAC, jump balls, comeback vs. off coverage). He's been the best rookie and already looks like an above-average X receiver. Buy as much as you can.
Rome Odunze - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bears are 3rd in projected points, and a lot of the intermediate 1st-read targets are pointed towards Odunze. His route running, athleticism, and catch radius all stand out. It's really just catching the damn ball. Odunze has high-end potential and the signs are showing. Ben Johnson isn't throwing a bunch of screens and manufactured touches in the offense right now, so the best receiver in the standard dropback game is going to win out. That's clearly Odunze, who they are moving around the offense.
George Pickens - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 3rd in WR usage, and Dak Prescott is leading the NFL in target rate on his dropbacks under pressure. The pass-game looks excellent, and if we got points for DPIs, then nobody would have any negative feelings about their boom-bust X receiver. In good matchups, Pickens should eat. In tougher matchups, he could fade away while running the most difficult routes in the offense. The Bears have been the worst defense in the NFL so far, and they just placed CB1 Jaylon Johnson on IR. It's go time.
Drake London - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Falcons are 4th-slowest to snap the ball and 3rd-lowest in neutral pass rate. That wasn't the case last year, but these are bad signs for the pass game right now.
Davante Adams - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Ladd McConkey - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Tyreek Hill - 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
We're not seeing the free receptions on screens and RPOs like before, and it's been harder to win downfield with this disaster-class OL and more two-high shells. Expect to see the same thing here, but Tyreek did at least create a chunk play against single-high last week. Hill still looks like a high-caliber athlete on tape and is capable of eating against questionable defenses. The Bills have been slow on defense and very worrisome at safety. On top of that, LB Matt Milano and DT Ed Oliver are banged up. Miami's 18.5-point team total is 3rd-lowest of the week, but Hill should get opportunities as 12.5-point dogs in great football weather. He'll face some slot CB Taron Johnson coming off injury.
Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) is questionable after limited practices.
Jakobi Meyers - 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Justin Fields (concussion) is out. I don't think Tyrod Taylor is a dropoff for the team, and he's probably a positive for Wilson in fantasy.
A.J. Brown - 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
I've watched all of his routes. In Week 1, it was zone coverage and maybe a less-than-full health AJB struggling to find areas to open up. In Week 2, there was man coverage opportunities. Instead of running a bunch of downfield routes, Brown ate on slants. He won those reps, but it's harder to hit a ceiling on those routes. Beyond that, the Eagles aren't giving him screens or RPO targets anymore because they have an elite ground game. Brown needs the downfield shots or slant YAC plays to make up for the hell-tier target volume. Will that change suddenly? Unsure. They haven't lost with Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Saquon in 15+ games. It's not broken as a team. It's just been broken in fantasy. They're also slowest to snap the ball per play, too.
Mike Evans - 72.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Emeka Egbuka
He's on the injury report.
Deebo Samuel
Courtland Sutton - 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Titans are 5th in quickest to snap the ball.
Chris Olave - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Saints are 1st in quickest to snap the ball.
Keenan Allen - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
DJ Moore - 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jauan Jennings - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Marvin Harrison - 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cardinals are snapping it at the 3rd-slowest rate and are 27th in neutral pass rate. Throw in Trey McBride's 30% target share, and there's only so much room for Harrison on a week-by-week plan.
Ricky Pearsall
Keon Coleman - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
We're in wild west territory here. The 84-play game in Week 1 is an outlier, but Coleman played full-time snaps and ate in a high-scoring game on 17.1 expected half PPR points. In Week 2's blowout win, Coleman rotated with WR4 and WR5 receivers in the first half, leading to 3.3 expected half PPR points. Everything about himself and this role is volatile, but this is a week to hope for the best. The Bills are projected for a league-high 31.0 points at home against the worst secondary in the NFL, one that's continued to lose bodies. We might get 4-5 spikes out of Coleman this year. We have to take some shots. This is one of them.
Terry McLaurin
Quentin Johnston
DeVonta Smith - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Eagles are slowest to snap the ball and are 31st in neutral pass rate.
Tee Higgins - 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
New OC John Morton is snapping the ball at the 2nd-slowest rate.
Jaylen Waddle - 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's limited in practice and is questionable with a shoulder injury. He'll probably play and see some slot CB Taron Johnson who is coming off injury. Waddle is only at 17% targets because De'Von Achane is eating underneath. Like we saw last week, chunk plays are still available in this offense, and Miami is likely trailing for most of this game in Buffalo as 12.5-point dogs. We're big-play hunting here, and the Bills secondary feels slow with questionable safety play.
Matthew Golden - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Michael Pittman
Travis Hunter - 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Khalil Shakir - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bills are 28th in neutral pass rate, and as 12.5-point favorites, dropbacks could be limited. Shakir is at his best in negative scripts where they need the underneath throws to keep chains moving. That said, the Dolphins are terrible in the secondary and Buffalo has the highest team total of the week. Shakir looks better than his WR51 usage indicates here.
Marquise Brown
Wan'Dale Robinson - 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Dontayvion Wicks - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Rashid Shaheed - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Falcons are 4th-slowest to snap the ball and 3rd-lowest in neutral pass rate. That wasn't the case last year, but these are bad signs for the pass game right now.
Troy Franklin - 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Cedric Tillman - 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman
Josh Downs - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Kayshon Boutte
Stefon Diggs
Dyami Brown
Elic Ayomanor - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 3 QB Rankings
Lamar Jackson
The Ravens are 2nd in projected points (28.5) vs. DET, which isn't a surprise. What's new is Baltimore is 6th in neutral pass rate (60%) this year with Lamar playing like a machine inside the pocket under coach Todd Monken. His weekly upside has never been higher than it is now.
Josh Allen - 23.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bills are 1st in projected points (30.75) vs. MIA. This is an eruption spot.
Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs are 4th in projected points (25.5) at NYG, and Mahomes is incentivized to run more now than he's been at any point in his regular season games. He has nobody to throw the ball to reliably, and Kansas City is 0-2. He set a regular-season high in rushing yards just last week and is the QB1 overall in scrambles (15). That'll keep his floor and ceiling higher than you'd think with how lackluster the offense has been around him. He still looks like an MVP candidate on film.
Caleb Williams
The Bears are 6th in projected points (24.75) vs. DAL, and they're 5th in neutral pass rate (60%) because their run game is non-existent. Williams is scrambling very well (3rd in scramble yards) and his play within the pocket is being over-examined. He's been fine there, too. In an easier matchup this week against a slow and oft-busted secondary without CB1 Daron Bland, we can see a high-ceiling game from the sophomore. This is an eruption spot. Dallas is 3rd-worst in passing EPA allowed and was shredded by the Giants just last week.
This is the fastest-pace game of Week 3:
Dak Prescott - 18.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cowboys are 3rd in projected points (25.75) at CHI and have been 2nd-quickest to snap the ball with a 58% neutral pass rate. This is a very fantasy-friendly offense right now, and Prescott is playing high-level ball. He's one of the smartest QBs in the NFL and looks pretty healthy, even if he's not scrambling at all.
This is an eruption spot with the Bears allowing the NFC Player of the Week to both quarterbacks they faced, including a totally fraudulent one to JJ McCarthy. Since then, Chicago has placed CB1 Jaylon Johnson on IR.
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles are tied for 10th in projected points (24.0) vs. LAR, and the offense is very boring right now. They're slowest to snap the ball and are 31st in neutral pass rate. Hurts is turning down some throws, so they'll need to make the most of their limited real pass attempts. Hurts with these receivers are definitely capable of that, but it'll be inconsistent week-to-week. If not for Hurts' Tush Push projection, he'd not rank this highly right now.
Justin Herbert
The Chargers are tied for 10th in projected points (24.0) vs. DEN, and they're 1st in neutral pass rate (72%). We've also seen Herbert take off and run more than normal now that he's healthy, leading to the 4th-most scramble yards. With three receivers complementing each other well, there's never been a better spot for him to be fantasy relevant than now.
The Broncos have a great defense but aren't quite living up to the hype with CB1 Pat Surtain playing through an injury right now. Herbert had 9.2 and 7.0 YPA games against them last year, plus added a near season-high 8 carries. This offense looks better than the one he had then.
Daniel Jones - 17.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The film does include a couple of misses, but Jones is in command of the offense and is moving around the pocket very well. Coach Shane Steichen is fully in his bag with an OL that's holding up and a well-rounded skill group that's fully healthy. Jones has the trust of Steichen, and this feels fairly sustainable. Maybe not the zero (0) punts, but just this being an average-to-good unit. This week, the Colts are tied for 10th in projected points (24.0) at TEN. This is an eruption spot.
As a bonus, Jones has 7 QB sneaks so far, only trailing Jalen Hurts. Those will come in handy and aren't going anywhere. Steichen comes from Philly, and Jones is a big dude.
Baker Mayfield - 18.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bucs are 5th in projected points (25.0) vs. NYJ, even though Mayfield will be playing without LT, RT, and LG. If we add Emeka Egbuka to that, too, then this feels like too much to overcome.
Jordan Love - 16.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Packers are 6th in projected points (24.75) at CLE.
We'll see if RT Zach Tom and RG Aaron Banks play.
Jayden Daniels
Let's wait until Friday. The Commanders are tied for 10th in projected points (24.0) vs. LV.
Drake Maye
The Patriots are 29th in neutral pass rate (41%), but this is an eruption spot according to passing EPA allowed. The Steelers were shredded by Justin Fields (how?) and then Sam Darnold had 8.9 YPA last week behind an iffy OL. The Patriots are holding up across the OL so far, and OC Josh McDaniels can scheme open underneath looks with his TE and RB depth. Maye's ceiling is still held back by a lackluster receiver group and some inconsistent play himself, but the path is opening up for fantasy spikes. He's had 11 runs, with a couple of designed runs and sneaks each.
Kyler Murray
The Cardinals are 27th in neutral pass rate (43%) and 30th in seconds per snap. Murray is only at 8 scrambles and 6 QB designed runs, leading to QB9 rushing yards. That's not enough to make up for the extremely conservative offense he's being asked to run. This week is a tough road game in San Francisco, who look to be improved with DC Robert Salah and 1st-round EDGE Mykel Williams living up to the hype.
Bo Nix
Nix hasn't been a standard dropback winner this year, so this may be the same half-field offense that Sean Payton called last year. Nix needs to improve and scramble more after just 3 attempts so far. That's where he can close the gap while he learns NFL ball.
The Chargers defense forces patience with their soft zone coverage and closing speed over the middle. It's hard to have a ceiling game against them, even without EDGE1 Khalil Mack. Nix had 6.6 and 6.5 YPA outings against them last year, adding 25 and 61 yards on the ground. Those are fantasy QB2 numbers.
Michael Penix - 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Falcons are 7th in projected points (24.5) at CAR. If you haven't noticed, the Panthers defense is terrible. This is an eruption spot with Drake London and Darnell Mooney back in the lineup, but Penix will have to do it with efficiency most likely. The Falcons are 30th in neutral pass rate (40%) so far, and the ground game should run wild here.
Sam Darnold - 15.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Seahawks are 7th in projected points (24.5) vs. NO.
Jared Goff
The Lions are tied for 10th in projected points (24.0) at BAL, and new OC John Morton is snapping the ball at the 2nd-slowest rate.
Trevor Lawrence - 16.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
C.J. Stroud - 16.6 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Geno Smith
Mac Jones
This is an eruption spot.
Matthew Stafford - 15.5 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Rams are 24th in projected points (20.5) at PHI.
The Rams are 4th in neutral pass rate (60%).
Russell Wilson
The Giants are 25th in projected points (20.0) vs. KC, who simply don't have the depth on defense as they've had in previous years. If they can stop DT Chris Jones and get LT Andrew Thomas (foot) back, they could find some explosives once again. The Giants are 3rd in neutral pass rate (61%), and Russ's deep ball is still amongst the very best in the NFL even if he's a much-slower scrambler than in his prime.
Tua Tagovailoa - 15.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Dolphins are 27th in projected points (19.5) at BUF, but almost all of their yards are through the air and there's some slow players and backups in Buffalo right now. This could be a sneaky garbage time game here.
Aaron Rodgers - 16.0 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Carson Wentz - 14.8 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
Jake Browning - 15.7 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Bengals are 26th in projected points (19.5) at MIN.
Bryce Young - 15.2 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Panthers are 29th in projected points (18.5) vs. ATL, and Young will be without star RG Rob Hunt and C Austin Corbett this week and beyond. It's now a below-average OL with terrible depth of weapons. I don't fully believe in the Falcons' defense still, but they're much-improved with better edge athleticism and coaching. Young's fantasy value is partially tied to scrambling ability in garbage time right now.
Cam Ward - 12.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Titans are 27th in projected points (19.5) vs. IND. The Colts are missing starters on defense due to injury, but new DC Lou Anarumo is a psycho with his coverages and can be a major challenge for inexperienced QBs and below-average play-callers. Both are present in Tennessee.
Tyrod Taylor
The Jets are 30th in projected points (18.5) at TB.
Spencer Rattler
The Saints are 31st in projected points (17.0) at SEA.
Joe Flacco - 13.9 fantasy points in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Browns are 32nd in projected points (16.75) vs. GB
Week 3 TE Rankings
Trey McBride - 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Cardinals won't have massive leads like they've had against the Saints and Panthers to start the year, and even without a bunch of pass volume in the offense to date, McBride is the TE5 on TE3 usage. He's the only TE to have a 30% target share, and I promise the touchdowns will eventually turn around. In the red area, the Cardinals call plenty of trickery. Even against Fred Warner on the road, McBride is clearly the top fantasy TE. For my money, he's the best TE in the NFL (with George Kittle currently injured).
Tyler Warren - 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
As a pre-bye rookie, Warren is the TE2 in expected half PPR points, targets (25%), and screens (3). The offense is playing well and there are great play calls headed for Warren, including an explosive play last week where he ran through the middle of the line as a "full back". Current opponents and teammates talk about him like he's one of those dudes.
Tucker Kraft - 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
It's not a stretch to call him one of the 5-best TEs in the NFL. Kraft gets after it as a blocker, gets schemed up touches, can create explosives in the standard dropback game, and then is targeted in the red zone. Kraft was even the TE3 in screens last year. The Packers are 6th in projected points, and the Browns defense is worst at LB, S, and SCB. This is a great matchup for him. Him versus exciting 2nd-round rookie LB Carson Schwesinger is a fun one for the sickos (me).
... And it's gone. It looks like he's week-to-week with a knee injury suffered in practice. That'll put Luke Musgrave onto the field, but he's not fully trusted by the staff. Musgrave can really run though, so don't write him off.
Travis Kelce
There are more focus drops recently, and those have literally cost the Chiefs games, but Kelce is moving well. He cooked stud slot CB Cooper DeJean in man coverage on a shallow cross and has made other explosive plays. That's encouraging with the Chiefs having few other answers. Kelce is the TE6 on TE20 usage. The latter will climb, and this is his easiest matchup so far. Going from Henley/Derwin and Baun/DeJean to the Giants is a big deal. The Chiefs are 4th in projected points.
Brock Bowers
He's clearly not himself with an MCL or PCL injury, which take some time to get back to full capacity. Bowers at least played more snaps in Week 2 than in the opener when he wasn't the leader in 1-TE sets, but this isn't the elite slot receiver that he is at full health. Bowers is the TE8 in usage at 21% targets while rotating in and out the lineup.
Jake Ferguson - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE10 on TE3 usage. This is real and positive regression is coming. The Cowboys don't have a WR3, and Dak Prescott is balling. In games where they're expected to score top-3 points like this week, then Ferguson is a must start.
Juwan Johnson - 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE3 on TE1 usage, featured in a variety of ways on tape leading to a 25% target share. There are a lot of 1st-read targets to him, and they'll play with pace and see garbage time targets all year long. He'll need them against maybe the best defense in the NFL in Seattle. Juwan is the favorite for the PPR Scam Of The Year (complementary).
Dalton Kincaid - 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The 14% target share isn't cutting it for any semblance of a floor, but Kincaid can move well and is attached to the offense projected for the most points of Week 3 (30.75). Kincaid is the TE8 on TE13 usage. The Dolphins are pretty weak at LB and SCB.
Sam LaPorta - 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Lions are 26th in neutral pass rate with plenty of other mouths to feed. Weekly volume will come and go in this offense, and this is a week where the Lions are only projected for 22.5 points. The Ravens are best at S, LB, and SCB. It's a bad spot.
Mark Andrews
Can he score 2 touchdowns in a game still? Yes. Is Andrews' 8% target share and TE25 usage without Isiah Likely a major problem? Yes. We've taken TD-or-bust to an extreme, and Andrews isn't lighting it up on film. A top-10 ranking for him right now is a credit to his history and Lamar Jackson's on-field play.
T.J. Hockenson - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE41 on TE36 usage with the Vikings dead last in plays and calling more runs in neutral situations. This is a QB upgrade in the short term, however, and Jordan Addison remains out. Hockenson will have to make more plays on film, too, but this is a bounce-back spot for him against the Bengals.
Kyle Pitts - 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE11 on TE12 usage. It's also encouraging that Pitts is now a full-time player for the first time since his knee injury, moving well, and getting targeted underneath. Will that hold with Drake London and Darnell Mooney both healthy? Less likely. The Falcons are 30th in neutral pass rate and are road favorites in Carolina. Even if the target volume regresses, Pitts can make the most of a very easy matchup with the Panthers' iffy linebackers.
Brenton Strange - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Jaguars talk very highly of their young, do-everything tight end. Strange is only the TE19 on TE19 usage so far, but there is room for that to climb, especially if Travis "Cole Beasley" Hunter plays more CB where he seems more comfortable with right this second. His matchup is easier over the middle than it is for Brian Thomas Jr. against Derek Stingley. Strange is the underrated play of the week.
Harold Fannin - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Browns have the most pass attempts in the NFL, which has helped Fannin reach TE9 on TE6 usage to start his career. It's a bit flimsy on just 15% team targets, but Fannin is making plays underneath and intermediate. There should be garbage time once again as 8-point home dogs to the Packers. Green Bay has some dudes at LB, S, and SCB, so this is a very tough matchup for him. Sam LaPorta and Zach Ertz paid off in garbage time versus them, however.
Hunter Henry - 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Patriots offense under OC Josh McDaniels is very TE and RB focused, and Henry is old reliable. This week, Henry is a positive regression candidate as the TE22 on TE11 usage. On paper, the Steelers look like a tough matchup, but they are old and have been prone to coverage busts.
Zach Ertz
The best-case scenario is if Jayden Daniels plays but doesn't scramble quite as much. We'll learn Friday afternoon.
Jonnu Smith - 27.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He's the TE15 on TE18 usage, thanks to a position-high 5 screen targets. Jonnu is the toy of the Steelers' offense.
David Njoku - 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
With more competition around him for the underneath stuff, Njoku is slipping quickly. He's only the TE18 on TE21 usage despite the Browns having the most pass attempts in the NFL. His upside is path can only clear if he's traded. He's a candidate for that eventually.
Ja'Tavion Sanders - 25.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
This is flimsy on just 13% team targets, but Sanders is at least the TE17 on TE5 usage. I don't think he'll make the most of his targets, however, and the Panthers are only 5.5-point dogs to the Falcons who have been running the ball. This game script should be more normal, which hurts the garbage time tight end.
Chig Okonkwo - 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
The Titans team total is at least at 20.0 this week in their easiest matchup yet.
Cade Otton - 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
He might have to stay in to block with both LT and RT out this week. Otton is the TE24 in usage with the Bucs' offense not clicking as well as 2025. Things will look a lot different if Emeka Egbuka can't go.
Colston Loveland - 12.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Stay patient if you can. The Bears need to get Loveland on the field ASAP.
Evan Engram
He didn't practice with a back injury on Wednesday and is the TE37 in usage so far.
Dalton Schultz - 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Theo Johnson - 22.5 receiving yards in Underdog's Pick'em.
Week 3 Fantasy Defenses
The best defenses of Week 3 are the Packers, Seahawks, Vikings, Colts, and Jets. The sneaky defenses are the Bills, Falcons, Chiefs, 49ers, Jaguars, and Commanders.