With the NFL Combine over, we have a better idea of where each prospect is getting drafted. Ultimately, that's what is by far the most predictive of how good each prospect will be for fantasy football. I'll use a combination of consensus board rankings, buzz from insiders, analytics, and historical trends to help me out with this 2023 mock draft.
Of note, there have been 4.2 QBs, 4.2 RBs, 2.2 WRs, and 10.6 WRs through the first two rounds and 7.0 QBs, 11.4 RBs, 9.2 WRs, and 17.8 WRs through four rounds over the last five drafts. The WR class is certainly worse, and the TE class is certainly better than usual.
For Round 1, I'm projecting:
3-4 QBs (most likely 4)
1-2 RB (most likely 1)
3-5 WRs (most likely 4)
2-4 TEs (most likely 3)
He checked every box with his height/weight and throwing motion at the NFL Combine. He's currently a distant QB2 in odds to go first overall (+350), but I think his floor is higher than Bryce Young (-190) purely based on size and I know the Panthers will really like Stroud. These odds should be slightly tighter in my opinion. Get ready for the Bears' first overall pick to be moved by free agency. Here's my prospect report on him.
Even with his size, Young will go between 1st and 4th overall given QB needs. Here's my prospect report on him.
The Cardinals are open to trading this pick, especially with QB needy teams right after them. If they stay put, they'll get one of the premier defensive linemen.
Their brass said it's not a requirement to trade up to get their QB, so I'll take them for their word. Richardson's all-time NFL Combine nearly makes him a top-nine lock with the potential to go top-six. Indianapolis could play the "win the trenches" mindset with AR, Jonathan Taylor, a nice OL, and big WRs. Here's my prospect report on him.
His warrant complicates things. Seattle seems more likely to take on risk, and they have a need. He's often ranked as the top player in the class, and the NFL cares about on-field production most importantly.
I'm hoping Richardson goes to Detroit, but I'm not convinced he'll be available. In fact, I'd make Richardson's draft projection at 6.0 flat. Meanwhile, Gonzalez is a big coverage corner from Oregon, reuniting him with Sewell. Gonzalez and Okudah would be fun.
The Raiders want leadership and toughness from their QB, and those are Levis' top traits. I do think there's some downside risk with Levis' draft stock given his iffy tape and poor mechanics, but most believe he'll be a top-10 pick still. Here's my prospect report on him.
A consensus top-10 player fits the Falcons' massive edge need.
Trading down and getting a pass-catcher or pass-blocker would be a win, especially if they get multiple future picks.
This is a position of need and of value for an analytics-based front office in Philly.
He's the most natural receiving tight end and ranks inside the top-10 overall on Daniel Jeremiah's board. DJ also mentioned that the Jets would like to improve on their tight end group, so the fit checks out.
An in-line prospect, Mayer's size is the same as Kincaid's. That's a slight issue, as was his average to slightly below-average athleticism. He'll be loved by scouts and coaches based on his tape, however. The Chargers need another skill guy with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler approaching age cliffs. Gerald Everett isn't cutting it.
The Vikings made it clear with their interviews that WR is on their draft list. They run a ton of 3-WR sets, which maximizes JSN's slot skillset. Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, and other draft analysts love JSN but tend to rank him in the 20s. Is it the raw speed and fit? Probably. He's +200 to be the first WR taken. That seems appropriate after 98th percentile agility drills.
A 4.49 forty isn't a disaster but does lower his ultimate ceiling at a rare 173 pounds. He's well-ranked by Daniel Jeremiah (11th overall), who said Addison should still go in the mid-to-late first round following his iffy NFL Combine. The Giants would be an ideal fit, especially with coach Brian Daboll coming from an offense with a smaller, less athletic stud WR1 in Stefon Diggs. They'd be stoked to have him here.
A rare enough blocker to get some "pivot to left tackle in his 30s" buzz, Washington's NFL Combine stud out with an elite agility score. His size and athleticism will be loved by Jerrrrrrrry and McCarthy, who both want to run the ball.
The Bills said they'd take a first-round RB and value yards after catch skills. Well, Robinson checks both boxes. This is about as far as Robinson can fall after checking every box at the NFL Combine. Here's my prospect report on him.
The Saints can't afford to sign WRs, so they have to draft him. He's the opposite of Olave, as a raw route runner with density and some yards after catch skills. They'd pair well together, if he doesn't flat out bust. New Orleans is known for taking on risk. He's +125 to be the first receiver; I'm not a fan of those odds.
There are 17 WRs with Flowers' 29-inch arms. Can he still win on the outside with his frame? If not, then he might be more of an early second rounder rather than late first. Flowers' size limitation and potential slot fit would be perfect in Indy, where they have big dogs (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce) at receiver.
He's very skinny and played in a very unique college offense. That pairing could keep him out of Round 1, but his speed and ball tracking solidify him as a second rounder and likely No. 2 or No. 3 NFL receiver as a deep threat. The Raiders don't have that profile on their roster.
They're rebuilding but may be too far down to get one of the consensus top-four QBs. Still, Hooker has starting potential and maybe would've been a first-rounder if not for a torn ACL. Hooker received positive news on his rehab at the Combine and cracked Daniel Jeremiah's top-50 overall. Coach Mike Vrabel will value Hooker's outlier-low turnover worthy play rate. Here's my prospect report on him.
Only 171 pounds, Downs is limited to the slot only. Cleveland needs one, and their analytics-based front office will like Downs' production and early-declare status.
A first-round sleeper to some degree, Musgrave was a strong but not totally elite athlete. That difference could be enough to go in the second round rather than late Round 1. The Packers, who need another skill guy, will value his size and speed.
Speed. Speed. Speed. Gibbs isn't a perfect prospect given his size (199 pounds) and production, but he'll shred in an outside zone system and as a pass-catcher. This system has produced with smaller backs. Here's my prospect report on him.
The speed at receiver that the Chargers are craving doesn't really exist in the first round, so they settle with a second rounder instead after chasing a tight end earlier. Scott is an early-declare, outside receiver with plus straight-line athleticism.
The Bengals will need cheaper skill guys moving forward, and LaPorter fits their system as a potential every-down option. He improved his stock at the NFL Combine.
Dane Brugler believed Tyler Scott and Tillman were the sleeper WRs to go inside the top-50. Neither completely dominated the NFL Combine to warrant that level of buzz, but Tillman does have the size (6'3/213) that the class lacks. Tillman would be a poor man's X-WR to fit with their Mickey Mouse WR depth chart.
He has the size (214 pounds) that most of the class lacks, and he tested as an average athlete at the NFL Combine, squashing those concerns. Charbonnet is a top-50 player on Daniel Jeremiah's board and will be a Day 2 pick. David Montgomery heads to free agency. There are some similarities to their games. Here's my prospect report on him.
A slight winner at the NFL Combine (4.38 forty), Mims is firmly a Day 2 candidate as a Power 5 early declare despite his size (5'11/183). The Falcons already have plenty of size on their roster, so he can slide into a part-time role.
There's nothing sexy about his profile -- senior from Iowa State with 4.53 speed -- but he can play on the perimeter with his size (6'2/203). The Patriots need an X to compete with DeVante Parker.
There aren't many 6'3.5" WR prospects in this class. Perry is one of them. Baltimore values size in their run-heavy offense.
Coach Doug Pederson said they want a rotation at RB, which in particular means they need a power guy to complement Travis Etienne. Johnson won't wow athletically, but he's the anti-Etienne when it comes to pass protection and size. He also will play special teams. He's my bet on who will last in the NFL despite Round 3-4 draft capital. Here's my prospect report on him.
He didn't test at the NFL Combine due to injury, but he's an early-down back with decent athleticism. McBride could slide into the Miles Sanders role at a cheaper price tag. Here's my prospect report on him.
A 188-pounder, Achane will have to settle for Round 3 draft capital and a non-bellcow role in the NFL most likely, but his speed (4.32 forty) and pass-catching ability would complement James Conner in 2023 before moving into a slightly bigger role the year following. Here's my prospect report on him.
A senior from Michigan with typical size (6'5/251), it's hard to see Schoonmaker falling too far in the draft even with an average athletic profile. He'd be an inline player for the Commanders, who didn't get much from the position last year.
A Southern Methodist senior, Rice checked boxes at the NFL Combine with 4.52 speed and a 41-inch forty at 202 pounds. I like him as a Round 3 pick. The Niners don't have much WR depth and may have to trade Brando Aiyuk in a couple offseasons due to cap concerns.
At 5'11/187, Reed would be an option in the slot or at Z and offers some John Metchie insurance.
The most athletic in my TE database after blowing up the NFL Combine, Kuntz goes from Day 3 pick to potential Day 2 riser. The Panthers said they want to have a "sexy" draft filled with skill guys. This qualifies.
He's small (201) and chose not to run the forty, but Spears broke tackles at a high clip and runs bigger than his weight. He happens to be a local kid for New Orleans, who will be dealing with Alvin Kamara's suspension and potential trade/release this year. Here's my prospect report on him.
He didn't test due to injury, but Miller has sleeper potential given his size (215 pounds), production, and Power 5 early-declare status. The Vikings seem like they're preparing for a Dalvin Cook release. Miller meshes with Minnesota's analytics-based front office. Here's my prospect report on him.
A bust during the 2022 season and a bust during the NFL Combine, Boutee has undrafted potential if things don't improve. For now, he has Day 3 projections. Seattle is searching for a legit No. 3 receiver. Boutee, in theory, could mix in on the perimeter opposite DK Metcalf.
This is my second WR to go to Baltimore, but that backs up how depleted their depth chart is. Palmer has 4.33 speed and could be a Devin Duvernay type of player.
A stud athlete with decent size (5'9/209), he theoretically complements Austin Ekeler, who is begging the front office to find a legit No. 2 RB. The Chargers also won't mind Brown's old age as a non-analytics based organization. Here's my prospect report on him.
A redshirt-senior out of Alabama, he has connections to coach Brian Daboll. New York needs to add competition to their TE group.
Only 165 pounds with a 4.49 forty, Dell is more of Day 3 prospect than Day 2 guy sadly. He could be a depth guy in Dallas, who will be bringing in new receivers to compete for No. 3 receiver duties.
A 5-star player, Evans' draft range seems very wide based on a chaotic (unproductive) college career. He didn't test at the NFL Combine. He'd be an exciting play-making option if the Bengals do release Joe Mixon. Here's my prospect report on him.
A 4.56 forty at 210 pounds was the most on-brand NFL Combine result for an SEC RB named Tank Bigsby. He'll provide early-down power as a committee member. Think 2022 D'Onta Foreman. Here's my prospect report on him.
He snuck onto Daniel Jeremiah's initial top-50 board but otherwise has little buzz. I'll be grinding his tape soon.