I'm the only media analyst who likes Jaxson Dart. Let's see how this unfolds.

QB1 Cam Ward (Grade: Early Round 1)

The 23-year-old is an experienced, dynamic gunslinger with the arm talent, core torque, and athleticism to reach the top 12 QB list in the pros. Ward (6'2"/219) routinely showcased difference-making pass attempts while on the move and at a moment's notice. His delivery is quick and can come from multiple arm angles, allowing him to fit missiles into tight coverage. He can drive the ball down field (hitting post routes against two high shells with ease) and can hit out routes to the far hash on a rope. His power is probably Tier 2 (complementary). In general, Ward wants to win with a power arm rather than with touch. That said, he's excellent in the quick game and in the RPO world because he gets the ball out quickly and accurately. Miami made sure that was a part of their shotgun-based offense.

Ward played with some anticipation but also forced some passes in after being tardy with the read. He's played in an air raid system for most of his career and may need some development under center and in a different scheme. Whatever scheme he lands in will have to be okay with his freestyle feet and looseness in the pocket. He typically drifts out of pressure and to keep himself feeling in a groove, but he is definitely not clinic tape in his mechanics for what it's worth. In general, Ward profiles as an above-average passer after posting a 95th percentile EPA per play with 9.3 yards per dropback on non-RPOs and non-screens. His charted accuracy is near the top of the class, and there is not a throw he can't make based on his arm talent and athleticism.

Rushing is a projection. Miami didn't use him on designed QB runs (3 zone-read attempts) and he only had 30 scrambles per PFF. Ward is more athletic than that and easily could run more in the pros out of necessity. His ability to create just enough time when the play broke down was evident, and it allowed him to not be sacked much (22 times). He generally only used it as a backup plan, and it was more good than great compared to the true elites at the position. Once again, I see him as a Tier 2 runner.

Overall, Ward is a well-rounded prospect with 5 years of experience and culture building. The leadership and character reports are ideal, and he worked his way up from DIII Incarnate Ward to Washington State to Miami. He'll fit into any system and will create when the play call breaks down. His arm talent is top-10 level and he's at least average with athleticism. The path to Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, etc. is right there. The reason he won't get there is if the freestyle game play doesn't translate as well as we'd hope. I'm generally optimistic.

QB2 Jaxson Dart (Grade: Mid Round 1)

The 21-year-old is a three-year starter at Ole Miss after transferring from USC, with a sturdy 6'2", 222-pound frame and plenty of toughness. As a senior, he averaged 329 passing yards per game, 10.8 yards per attempt, and ranked in the 81st percentile in EPA per play. He posted an elite 9.7 yards per dropback on non-RPO, non-screen throws, helping quiet criticisms that Lane Kiffin’s scheme fully drove his production—though Kiffin did call play action at the highest rate in college football. Dart easily was the best QB in college football on play action reps.

Dart’s arm strength is solid, and he’s especially effective on high-point throws, with a compact release and quick motion. He’s very comfortable throwing on the move and might’ve made the best throw of the draft class on a deep shot while rolling left. He’s a good athlete and playmaker, scrambling 40 times (vs. just 29 sacks), and showed real mobility against Georgia. QB draws, zone reads, and off-script plays were part of his game throughout, and he averaged 61 rushing yards over his final four SEC games. His total rushing EPA ranks in the 67th percentile among drafted QBs since 2005. That can't go overlooked.

In the dropback game, Dart operates with high variance but real upside. He thrives over the middle—throwing with anticipation, touch, and velocity. He shows the ability to work full-field progressions, manipulate defenders pre- and post-snap, and adjust to post-snap rotations. His footwork is an underrated strength—allowing him to pump, reset, and create new throwing angles. He made multiple NFL-quality throws by working through progressions and hitting backside digs/curls with timing and accuracy. He also led college football in completions beyond 15+ yards.

That said, Dart’s aggressiveness is a double-edged sword. I watched all 154 dropbacks against Power 5 defenses without a screen, RPO, or play action. On those normal dropbacks, he had a wild 15.0 aDOT. He hunts big plays and will bypass open checkdowns for deep shots, sometimes into double coverage. He occasionally locks onto pre-snap reads while going full send. His blitz recognition is inconsistent—leading to sacks or throwaways where better options existed. There are also moments where he reads half the field well but doesn't continue through the concept, opting for extending with his legs a bit too rapidly. His accuracy is solid in general, even while under pressure. He's willing to take a hit and rarely drifted into pressure. His pocket presence was a positive.

The larger concern is chaos in his reads late in games, where he forced balls into coverage (see: Florida and LSU in particular). That said, with such a deep-target profile, Dart's 2% turnover-worthy play rate looks more impressive in context. He has limited experience commanding a traditional huddle and took just 15 snaps under center in 2024, so given his current processing speed and erratic tendencies, he’ll likely need a redshirt period in a structured, play-action-based system. But the arm talent, mobility, confidence, and glimpses of processing point toward real starter upside—especially if a team can harness his aggression without killing his creativity. His scramble numbers were the best in the class. ... Comps: Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold.

QB3 Jalen Milroe (Grade: Late Round 1)

The 22-year-old early declare is an absurd athlete with two years of starting experience. He projects as one of the best QB rushers in the NFL immediately, excelling in all designed QB runs where he can showcase fringe 4.3s speed and tremendous finishing power. He pulls away from consensus 1st-round SEC safeties on tape. It'd be silly to talk about his rushing anymore. It's obviously special, very valuable, and provides him with some level of floor.

As a passer, Milroe possesses a compact throwing motion with high-end arm strength. He can throw the ball 60+ yards without stepping into passes, but his muscular frame works against his touch. He misfires underneath with too much velocity and is working on selecting the right club to fit balls into windows near the sideline or over the middle. There are simply too many uncatchable passes right now, sometimes even sailing into the cheerleaders section. Some of it stems from his indecision, which forces late-reaction passes without his feet set, but Milroe's feet tied to his throwing motion must improve to be a difference maker. For whatever reason, Milroe's accuracy was better in 2023, particularly on really short and really deep passes. His on-target rate over the middle has been fine throughout possible because his rifle-it-in throwing motion is best suited here.

Milroe is not a risk taker inside the pocket. His deep shots are taken when the play design calls for it or during scramble drills (positive), but he can also turn down some throws or play too quickly in his progressions which causes some missed opportunities. He actually finds the checkdown well and can bail himself out as a scrambler when he does play too fast. His pocket movement is generally good because he doesn't have a retreat problem, but he can absolutely get better at keeping his feet mirrored to his eyes. That does explain some of his inaccuracies. What's fascinating about Milroe is that despite rushing through some progressions, he's also underrated in getting to the backside of concepts. PFF charted him with the best pass grade beyond his first read, with some of those going to checkdowns others to backside digs/curls and others on deep shots outside of the pocket. I threaded a few of them here.

The last note for Milroe is acknowledging this was a brand new offense in 2023 and then again in 2024. After losing Nick Saban to retirement, this roster felt lackluster which did pop up with a lot of drops (5%), poor OT play, and some oddities in the RPO game. It was odd to see as much miscommunication in the quick game, the RPO game, and even the zone read game. Milroe could be to blame for some of this. It also could've been the environment around him. In general, it was the least functional environment a Bama QB has had in quite a while.

While he has work to do, there are real NFL traits already in his bag. Last year, Milroe posted 83rd percentile QBR and 63rd percentile EPA per play among drafted QBs since 2005. His 7.9 yards per dropback when removing RPOs and screens puts him in the upper half of this class as well, and that's with his accuracy being the worst in the class by a wide margin. .

Milroe has top-5 rushing traits and reportedly the character traits to believe in his development as a passer. The accuracy problem follows many jacked QBs, but he should smooth out his stroke and he should get more comfortable with pulling the trigger on intermediate throws with more dropback experience. He needs a half year on the bench before testing just how much of his rushing ability provides a floor to an NFL offense, but if you are searching for hypothetical ceiling, Milroe is your guy. ... Comps: Shrunken Josh Allen, Colin Kaepernick, Justin Fields.

QB4 Shedeur Sanders (Grade: Early Round 2)

The 22-year-old senior is an accurate touch thrower from the pocket with mediocre athleticism, subpar arm strength, and a drifting problem. Sanders had to overcome brutal blocking but did have the best WR in the country, an easy schedule, and plenty of easy completions built into the offense. This was absolutely not a pro-styled offense despite OC Pat Shurmur coming from the league. He took 0 under center dropbacks, used 2-TE sets on 3 dropbacks, had 4+ WRs on 73% of dropbacks, huddled on 30% of his dropbacks, and rarely faced a base defense. There were almost 0 reps where he'd have to turn his eyes to the defense post-snap based on the design. Because they couldn't run the ball well, Sanders completed the most screen receptions (102) among Power 5 QBs. This team also threw a lot of hitch routes and some RPO quick game, and generally didn't run a lot of pass-game concepts. Sanders loved to hit Travis Hunter on crossing routes, where he'd routinely moss defenders or run by them. A lot of the reps didn't look like they do on Sundays.

Sanders posted 72nd percentile EPA per play with an okay 7.3 yards per dropback on non-RPO and non-screen throws. Where he wins is with his touch throwing and willingness to throw over the middle. He throws a very catchable, high-arching pass against zone coverage and on back-shoulder throws against man coverage. His accuracy is above average, especially when he's playing with his feet underneath him from the pocket. He played with some anticipation on intermediate passes and did a great job of avoiding turnover worthy plays (1.7%) despite throwing the ball over the middle at a nice rate. He doesn't force many passes (complementary). His arm is just good enough to get the ball to the sideline and just over safeties when he's in the pocket, but it is a well below-average in strength compared to NFL starters and really tailed off when on the move. His size (6'1"/212) works against him here. There were many throws where Hunter and the other NFL Combine invitee receivers bailed him out on under-thrown passes. The worry is that some of these over-the-middle throws that were completed against a 32nd percentile strength of schedule turn into more interceptions against faster-moving NFL defenses.

His biggest concern is his pocket movement paired with his mediocre athleticism. Sanders drifts backwards and laterally constantly, often putting himself in compromised positions. His EPA lost to sacks is in the bottom 5th percentile among drafted QBs and can't be fully put on the offensive line. He shedded some sacks in college, but that'll be more difficult against bigger defensive linemen in the pros. He isn't slow when taking off to scramble or extend plays, but he's not fast and was tracked down in college. His loose feet did create some lost velocity when deciding to throw, and he'll have to stay more disciplined with these reps as the pocket size shrinks at the next level. His scramble production was average, and Colorado didn't use him in the QB designed run game at all. He is an average rushing threat at best compared to NFL starters. His speed and strength are just that.

Sanders ultimately profiles like a replacement-level starter with a low ceiling, perhaps ending up as a quality backup in a timing-based offense that can limit his current pocket-drifting problem. His accuracy, risk-averse decision making, and extreme toughness while taking hits in the pocket pair well inside the pocket. If his sack production improves, then he's a starter in the mold of Teddy Bridgewater. Colorado's lack of play-sheet volume makes him more of a developmental type than a Day 1 starter. It's possible his first starts resemble the Bryce Young rookie season, and Young is a tier above with playmaking ability and didn't show the drift problem nearly as much in college. I struggle seeing how a Sanders-built offense can compete with the top-10 QBs in a playoff game.

QB5 Tyler Shough (Grade: Round 2)

The 25-year-old redshirt-blueshirt-greenshirt senior had the worst college luck but finally broke out in his lone season at Louisville in a relatively pro-styled system without pro prospects surrounding him. Shough (6'5"/225) has a nostalgic 2010s gameplay with a live arm and a risk averse mind. He's the only prospect in the class with non-shotgun play action reps, and he only had 4 turnover worthy plays on 1st- or 2nd-down all year. His 9% sack rate while under pressure is also the best in the class because he can play through progressions and knows when to throw the ball away (sometimes hilariously too quickly).

Last year's breakout season included 53rd-percentile EPA per play among drafted QBs and an average 7.1 yards per dropback removing RPOs and screens. His intermediate and downfield accuracy were also average, but he has the arm strength to make every throw and be an asset in a play action based system in particular. His standout throws were perimeter throws off of play action, teach tape step up in the pocket throws over the top, and when moved off his spot into the back of the end zone. Shough did not make wow throws every game, but they were sprinkled in throughout the season. In general, Shough has starter level traits when kept clean.

Shough is a good straight line athlete, as seen by his 4.63 forty time at the NFL Combine. He can handle bootleg play action attempts, sprint out of the pocket when needed, and pick up the occasional first down as a scrambler. But he is not laterally gifted and is a cautious rusher. He won't be used in the QB designed game and only averaged 5.0 yards per scramble with a max gain of 9 yards last year. Ultimately, having a -2.4 cumulative EPA on runs is a negative, and it's possible that his injury history has scared him from making more plays with his legs.

Herbert. Then Covid. Then a broken clavicle on a TD run. Then re-injured that same clavicle on a scramble in Week 1 after opting to not have surgery the previous year. Then a scramble-drill ankle sprain turned non-contact broken fibula on the next year. It's as bad luck as it gets. That said, his bones have healed, and he's an extremely mature, motivated person because of the adversity based on the interviews I've heard. I'd rather inherit bone injuries than muscle and ligament damage, but it's not ideal either way. The way those injuries did show up last year was at the collision point. He simply shied away from contact, especially when dodging it outside of the pocket. His turnover worthy plays when not calculated 3rd/4th down prayers where when being chased. His numbers beyond the first read were the worst of the top-5 QBs, too, not because he can't read coverages but because his bad plays were sent into traffic. The panicked plays also came up on some of his play action reps after turning his back to the defense. It's a worrisome trend line.

Overall, Shough can't be written off because he's 25 years old. He's showed too much as a pocket passer with his mind and arm to not take a chance on him at the right cost. He's a great dude with a little more straight-line juice than the Jared Goff styled QB he plays like. If he can stand tall (figuratively) under duress, there are enough tools to see a starter in a structured offense. Whether he does that or not is a complete projection. ... Comps: Old Jared Goff, old Ryan Tannehill, old Mason Rudolph.

Winks QB Prospect Rankings Since 2022

My previous reports: 2021, 2022 (Part I and II), 2023, and 2024.