The NFL news came storming in randomly on Tuesday night. Just days after Jameis Winston signed with the Giants on very clear backup money, the Giants signed Russell Wilson to low-end starter money. That it happened on the day of Cam Ward's Pro Day isn't lost on me either. The Russ domino very likely means an Aaron Rodgers contract will be finalized with the Steelers later this week, as there are no other options for either party. And if that wasn't enough for March 25th, Stefon Diggs signed a $23M guaranteed contract with the Patriots. The Titans (1st), Browns (2nd), Giants (3rd), Patriots (4th), Steelers (21st), and others were all effected by these moves as we inch closer to the draft. Here's where I stand.
He's the most valuable player in the draft, and the Titans need a QB. Shouldn't this have made sense from the get go? Unless a team like the Browns make such a ludicrous offer that can't be turned down, we're largely already onto the 2nd pick of the draft. And I support the Titans decision on this one. Ward has a path to QB5-QB10 play at the position.
I don't believe Shedeur Sanders is good enough to be worthy of an early Round 1 selection, nor has the tools to eventually turn into a player that we'd hold to that regard. Most people who have watched the tape like, not love, him as a prospect, and the Browns don't have to love their QB room right now or by the time Round 1 is over to feel okay about the 2025 season either, as there are Day 2 options this year and Kirk Cousins to fall back to. The luxury of picking 2nd overall this year are choosing between two blue chip talents: EDGE Abdul Carter and WR/CB Travis Hunter. Both are worthwhile. I believe analytics-based GM Andrew Berry is trying to create a powerful offense, not defense. Take the Deshaun Watson (L), Elijah Moore (L), and Jerry Jeudy (W) trades as evidence. Hunter is viewed by Berry to be a WR first, and they certainly have a need for playmakers in Cleveland. Despite his rawness as a receiver, Hunter dazzled underneath and downfield. As a bonus, he can play situational corner and bring great vibes to a locker room lacking them. If you want to really take it a step further, Hunter's upside is that they are drafting two difference makers for the price of one if Hunter hits. His upside is just higher than Carter's can be.
GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll have had reasonable QB plans this offseason. They offered enough money for Matthew Stafford and enough picks to the Rams to facilitate a trade, but Stafford likes LA more. They offered enough money for Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers like the Steelers 2025 roster more. They wanted to take Cam Ward, but the Titans likely won't let that happen. What else were they supposed to do? Signing Russell Wilson to less money ($10M guaranteed) than Justin Fields ($30M guaranteed) and Daniel Jones ($15M guaranteed) should be viewed as a win because he's simply better than they are, and Jameis Winston ($4M guaranteed) is a fun emergency guy, too. These aren't needle moving QBs, but those don't just appear in offseasons or every team would have one. Unfortunately, they've done the most they reasonable could so far. It is what it is.
So does Russell Wilson preclude the Giants from taking Shedeur Sanders at 3rd overall? It does not, but the odds certainly took a massive hit in either of these following scenarios. Either they heard he's gone to the Browns at 2nd overall (unlikely but possible to me), or the Giants simply don't love him at 3rd overall (likely to me). Going back to the paragraph above, it's difficult to reach the conclusion that they love Sanders at 3rd overall if they tried for just about every serious QB that was available this offseason already. Furthermore, teams don't carry 3 notable QBs often, teams don't have blue chip talent as the opportunity cost like they have here, and Russel Wilson probably doesn't sign an incentive-laden deal without getting the sense that he'll actually be the starter. The Giants' franchise QB dice roll is more likely to come with Day 2 draft capital or with a 2026 pick at this point. That's just the hand they were dealt.
If Travis Hunter is available, he's a total smash for the Giants. They need help at WR and at CB. Pretty simple. If he's not available like I have here, then we're getting really damn spicy. Like really spicy. Abdul Carter would be the best player available on 98 out of 100 big boards, but he's also an EDGE and the Giants have Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux under contract. Would they overload the position? Trade Thibodeaux in his 4th year? Or just take the best offer available for this selection? All on the table to me. It's as interesting as a draft pick can be at 3rd overall. My solution: Trade the rights to Carter to get depth in this draft and hopefully a 2026 1st rounder in hopes of finally finding a real franchise QB then.
The Giants get: 8th overall, 111th overall, and a 2026 1st rounder (which could help get them a franchise QB eventually). The Panthers get: a blue chipper at a premium position that they are currently terrible at. It's a similar trade to EDGE Will Anderson, who the Texans took at 3rd overall by moving on from 12th, 33rd, a future 1st, and a future 3rd.
New England is pleading for Shedeur Sanders to go top 3, but I don't have that here. That brings us to the first real cliff in talent. And let me warn you, there is almost no difference in projected talent from 4th overall to about 20th overall. It is what it is.... The defense was upgraded relentlessly in the first waves of free agency, and Stefon Diggs' $23M guaranteed likely makes him a multi-year option at WR. What you haven't seen are a ton of moves to sure up the offensive line, aside from RT Morgan Moses who is also 34 years old. There isn't a no doubter left tackle in this draft, but Campbell has the upside to make the most of his outlier low length at left tackle with the extremely high floor of being an athletic difference-making left guard if that project fails. For what it's worth, HC Mike Vrabel was with the Titans when they took LG Peter Skoronski early, and I don't think he had many regrets with that.
Fixing the interior OL was a priority in free agency--C Robert Hainsley replaces retired Mitch Morse and OG Patrick Mekari replaces Brandon Scherff--but defensive tackle remains a relative weakness. Graham doesn't look the part of a top-5 overall DT, which could result in a mini slide. The Jaguars might have more faith after seeing what undersized DT Braden Fiske did as a rookie with the Rams, where new GM James Gladstone came from.
Las Vegas is drafting a RB at some point. It's a matter of when. Jeanty has the best contact balance of any RB I've watched recently and doesn't have a clear weakness as a ball carrier. He'd fit beautifully with OC Chip Kelly who is consistently in the top-10 in carries when he's calling plays. The only debate is if it's better to wait for one of Kelly's Ohio State running backs in Round 2 or to wait even beyond that.
Justin Fields' pressure numbers remain worst in the league, and new HC Aaron Glenn is used to having an elite OL from his days in Detroit. Membou isn't Penei Sewell, but the bull case is there. With RT Morgan Moses gone, the lone spot on the OL up for grabs is the position Membou dominated at against big-time SEC competition.
If you can't find the franchise QB this offseason, the next best thing is to acquire more draft capital and a receiver for that eventual QB to throw the ball to. Malik Nabers is the No. 1 receiver who can kick inside to slot in 3-WR sets, while McMillan plays X receiver and Darius Slayton plays Z. It's a really complementary receiver trio and plays into the strengths of Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in 2025 as the Schoen and Daboll look to save their jobs.
The Saints traded away CB1 Marshon Lattimore at the deadline and lost CB2 Paulson Adebo this free agency. They have Kool-Aid McKinstry from last year's 2nd round, but Johnson is in a tier above, especially in this scheme. New DC Brandon Staley specializes in two-high zone defenses, where Johnson is at his very best.
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but this Bears depth chart doesn't have many glaring needs beyond RB. There are minor holes to poke at WR3, LT, RG, DT, and EDGE, so I'm leaning towards best player available. For many, that'd be Walker, who is an undersized speed rusher with off-ball experience. He's not built like Montez Sweat (6'6"/245) or Dayo Odeyingbo (6'6"/275). All three can play together, too, if Walker is utilized like a blitzer.
A cash-savings free agency was warranted after going all in for years and while preparing for a hefty Brock Purdy contract. Protecting Purdy will be a priority, and it'll be difficult to find a LT in the draft if the 49ers rebound next year and no long pick this high in the draft. Getting ahead of the eventual Trent Williams retirement is smart business. Banks played left tackle at Texas but has the movement skills to play guard in this complex Shanahan scheme in the interim with LG Aaron Banks gone.
Have you seen the depth chart behind CeeDee Lamb? It's deeply unserious. The Cowboys need some juice on offense, and Golden certainly has the 4.29 speed to make a team dream. This is the draft range where elite speed flies off the board (Jamo, Ruggs, Ross, Austin, etc.). It's also on my radar that many insiders believe Golden has closed the gap on McMillan, which I'm taking as Golden is loved by the league more as the league is skeptical of McMillan.
Scroll over to OurLads.com and you might see "Storm Duck" listed as a starting corner. You'll also see 31-year-old Jalen Ramsey and contract-year nickel Kader Kohou. It's a room that has no long-term depth. Barron is probably best as a nickel because of his short arms, but he did run really well at the Combine and held up nicely on the perimeter as a senior at Texas.
The Colts have a center replacement in house, but they are out a guard with Will Fries and backup Mark Glowinski gone. I just don't see one available in this range. Indianapolis could also upgrade their TE room, and many believe Warren would be a best player available pick here.
This has to be a defensive lineman, and Green has helped his case since the NFL Combine. He popped up with a 96th percentile three cone at his Pro Day. He was highly productive, lit up the Senior Bowl against better competition than what he saw at Marshall, and has the elite athleticism needed at this position. The shoe can drop on his character at any moment after two separate sexual assault allegations, but the lack of reporting from insiders on that leads me to believe it's not going to effect his draft stock much, if at all.
Arizona's leadership comes from the Eagles, who have made defensive line a major priority. The Cardinals just stole Philly EDGE Josh Sweat but they were unable to close the gap on DT Milton Williams in free agency. Harmon is a Williams consolation prize. He's big, athletic, and productive. I'm actually looking for reasons as to why he wouldn't be a top-20 guy and don't have any.
Cincy's defense was brutal last year, but the crazy thing is they've made real investments to the premium positions on that side of the ball. They just need to develop those guys with a new defensive coordinator. The biggest team need on paper is on the interior offensive line. Just like before, the G-C-G combination isn't good enough. Zabel is a ball of clay who can harden up at any offensive line spot, most commonly mentioned as a guard/center rather than a tackle. That fits Cincy's need.
New OC Klint Kubiak is expected to utilized more 2-TE sets than other coordinators, and Loveland can be a real weapon even in 3-WR sets. In the slot. Even at real wide receiver. Loveland is a monster in terms of size and will eventually develop into a nice blocker for this balanced team. If the Seahawks are run committed, it could make sense to prioritize a tight end over a receiver.
Legendary LB Lavonte David signed a 1-year deal, but this torch must get passed and there is a need at the second starting spot. Campbell is a stylistic fit with blitz-heavy Todd Bowles. Before Campbell moved to off-ball, he was the No. 1 edge rushing recruit out of high school. He's a play-maker, blitzer, spier, and a whole lot more. That's what the Bucs are on the look for.
Denver quietly doesn't have many needs. They eventually will draft a RB, but it's for a defined role that leans more in the pass game and I don't see a Round 1 option unless they reach for TreVeyon Henderson (possible). If not, Williams is a classic Sean Payton body type at edge rusher. He has size to defend the run, while Nik Bonitto types can be unleashed on passing downs. Williams also has some pass-rushing traits (length and power) and is only 20 years old with three years of starting experience at Georgia. That profile typically doesn't last long in the draft.
We can assume Aaron Rodgers is coming on a 1- or 2-year deal. He's only there to win right now, so I don't see a Round 1 QB being attached to Pittsburgh at this point, especially without a Round 2 selection (D.K. Metcalf trade). This would be rich to me, but the Steelers do have a thumper need at RB after Jaylen Warren disappointed last year in a committee role next to the departed Najee Harris. Hampton is a downhill runner with far more speed than Harris provided for OC Arthur Smith's run-first scheme. It's almost too on the nose for the Steelers to make, yet this is a team that's typically really easy to mock for.
Jim Harbaugh has already coached him, and the Chargers defensive line is a disaster. They've left multiple starters go for cap reasons, and their best player up front is Khalil Mack, who is on a one-year deal. Grant is an upside nose tackle capable of two gapping and bringing some pass rush juice. It's an important role for a team that wants to be light in the box. Grant gives them that option.
Traits. Stewart has the physical traits to go much higher than this, but he's just not a well rounded player. He played too heavy last year, limiting his finishing ability. He also doesn't have the pass rush plan of other first round talents. And perhaps worst of all is his ability to literally find the damn football against the run. Stewart is a classic boom-bust selection.
The Vikings only have 4 picks this entire draft with their second pick not coming until 97th overall. They are an obvious trade down team, especially if the QBs are available and teams are feeling desperate.
The Vikings get: 40th overall and 71st overall. The Saints get out of their salary cap hell eventually by going extremely cheap at QB after one last season with Derek Carr in 2025. This would be a the range I'd be comfortable with for Sanders' skill set, and the fact that he'd be playing in a dome suits his play style as an underneath distributor. Long-time GM Mickey Loomis is used to building around Sanders' style of play with Drew Brees and even HC Kellen Moore played QB at 6-foot-flat himself.
It's clear DeMeco Ryans had culture and talent issues with the offensive line. That's how two OL trades happen in back-to-back days. They have thrown bodies at the tackle spots, but none of them are sure fire players in Cam Robinson, Blake Fischer, and Tytus Howard. If they draft a tackle, Howard goes back inside. That'd be the plan here when Simmons eventually comes back from his patellar tendon tear. I do think the Texans want interior help specifically, but Simmons' upside is the highest.
SEC corners with official 4.2s speed are very live for Round 1 selections. Hairston was a productive zone player with great closing speed and recovery skills. The Rams are a zone-based defense most years, and it's the position they've ignored in the draft recently.
Baltimore is currently starting a 2023 7th rounder at left guard, and their right guard spot isn't completely settled either. Jackson would be a projected starter as a rookie, and he has the upside of being the long-term answer at left tackle when Ronnie Stanley is eventually done. Jackson moved from guard to tackle for the Buckeyes due to Josh Simmons' injury. That versatility will be liked by this organization.
Built up front, the Lions are in-need of some new additions after moving on from Kevin Zeitler and Jonah Jackson in back-to-back offseasons. Booker's elite size and poor athleticism won't be for everyone, but this is an offense I can easily see making it work. Downhill runs up the middle.
Jeremy Chinn is out. Enter the bigger and faster version of him. Emmanwori's instincts are mediocre for a position that needs them, but his physical tools are legitimately rare and allows him to initially be a step later than others. With more experience, he should be a well rounded player. I also trust HC Dan Quinn to have a special plan for him.
Buffalo can ask their safeties to handle a lot, and Starks' three years of starting experience under Georiga HC Kirby Smart will have him prepared. The Bills have lost impact starters in the secondary at both safety and corner. It's a major team need. There will be options in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
His production, athleticism, and early-declare SEC pedigree would typically make him a top-20 lock, but Pearce has some character concerns. The latest example was forgetting his Combine shirt at the hotel, forcing him to run the damn forty in a hoodie. The fact Pearce did so in 4.48 seconds shows why someone will take a chance on him. The Chiefs are known for just that, and they happen to be looking for a counter to George Karlaftis.
Once again not an obvious need, but Egbuka provides depth and could be the tierciary target if TE Dallas Goedert does end up being dealt for a pick and salary cap relief. Egbuka is used to being in a balanced offense with star receiving talent, and he's made the most of it by being a dirty work slot or flanker. This is a substantial upgrade to Jahan Dotson, who won't block like Egbuka can in 3-WR sets.
Just missed the cut: QB Jaxson Dart (who I'd have to the Browns at 33rd overall), RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Luther Burden, OT Chris Conerly, DT Walter Nolen, and EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku.