2022 NFL Mock Draft & Draft Props - Hayden Winks 3.0

Apr 18th 2022

Hayden Winks

2022 NFL Mock Draft & Draft Props SZN is in full swing now. I've grinded the tape, crunched the numbers, and spent too much time looking at other people's shitty mock drafts to figure out where the edges are ahead of next Thursday's event. You can read my Mock 1.0 and Mock 2.0 if you just hate going outside. Let's get to the data derived from the 14 mock drafts I trust...

There are no such thing as locks in the NFL Draft, but these 24 green prospects have routinely been mocked and ranked as top-32 prospects. I’d expect most, if not all, to be drafted on Day 1 pending a bong mask video surfacing on the night of the draft.

The yellow prospects rank inside the top-32 in adjusted average (definition: the average of overall mock draft picks with penalties for not being mocked inside the top-32) and have been mocked in Round 1 in at least half of the mock drafts I track, meaning these prospects are on the good side of 50/50 to go on Day 1. The orange prospects would be surprises, not total shocks, for a Round 1 selection. Arnold Ebiketie, George Pickens, and Lewis Cine are my favorite long shots. The red prospects would be major shocks and are basically not on my mock draft radar.

With that, let’s dive in…

1. Jaguars - Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson

Sosa’s Team Needs: C, LB, EDGE, SS

Hutchinson is -200 to go first overall. The Jaguars have OTs Cam Robinson, Jawaan Taylor, and Walker Little under contract, and the other potential first-overall picks in this class are offensive tackles. Sports Illustrated’s John Shipley is confident it’ll be the Michigan man at No. 1. ... Bets previously suggested: Aidan Hutchinson (-250 at 1st overall).

2. Lions - Georgia EDGE Travon Walker

Sosa’s Team Needs: QB, EDGE, LB, FS, CB

New Pick: Assuming Hutchinson goes 1st overall, I think it’s a true toss up at 2nd overall between Walker (+270) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (+300). Of the 14 credible mocks I track, Walker has five 2nd overall votes to Thibodeaux’s six, with Walker going 1st overall in two of them. I’m rolling with Walker in this one after mocking Thibodeaux 2nd overall in my first two versions. I'm unsure who I'll be mocking in next week's official. ... Bets previously suggested: Kayvon Thibodeaux (+500 at 2nd overall).

3. Texans - NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu 

Sosa’s Team Needs: Defense, RG, RT, RB, Slot WR

John McClain believes OC Pep Hamilton wants to build around Davis Mills this draft after arguably playing the second-best ball among the 2021 rookie QBs last season. They have LT Laremy Tunsil under contract for two more seasons, but Ekwonu has played left guard before (239 snaps in 2020) and could be an option at right tackle, too. Ekwonu has -280 odds of being a top-five pick and +185 of going exactly at 3rd overall. The latter makes Ekwonu the favorite to be selected here.

4. Jets - Oregon EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux

Sosa’s Team Needs: Slot CB, EDGE, WR, Power RB

New pick: The Athletic’s Connor Hughes straight up tweeted that the Jets aren’t interested in a CB with the 4th or 10th overall selection. Why? It beats me, but Hughes is plugged in and leans EDGE/OL here. He selected Kayvon Thibodeaux in a recent mock draft with Walker and all three offensive tackles on the board. One of my favorite prop bets is Thibodeaux to go top-5 (-105), which doesn't add up to his odds of going 1st (+2000), 2nd (+300), 3rd (+400), 4th (+275), or 5th overall (+350). He goes top-5 in 11-of-14 mock drafts I track.

5. Giants - Alabama OT Evan Neal

Sosa’s Team Needs: LG, RT, TE, LB, EDGE

Neal is -125 to go inside the top-five picks and +250 to be the 5th overall pick in particular. He's gone inside the top-five in 11-of-14 mock drafts I track. As for the fit, the Giants need a right tackle or guard to properly evaluate Daniel Jones heading into his final year of his rookie contract, and Neal played 765 snaps at RT in 2020 and 723 snaps at LG in 2019. Coach Brian Daboll having the Alabama connection is the icing on the cake here. ... Bets previously suggested: Evan Neal o3.5 (-175). Kenny Pickett (+7500) to go 5th overall.

6. Panthers - Mississippi State OT Charles Cross

Sosa’s Team Needs: QB, LT, LG, TE, MLB

New Pick: Carolina seems like an obvious trade down team. Do any Sauce Gardner teams want to get ahead of the Giants? Or do any win now teams really need the remaining consensus top-10 OT? If yes, the Panthers should accept a trade down to get back their missing 2nd/3rd round picks and to get ammo for a Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Cross to Carolina makes sense if they find a slight trade down partner or if they stay at 6th overall. He has -450 odds of being a top-10 overall pick with an over/under of 7.5 overall.

7. Giants - Cincinnati CB Sauce Gardner

Sosa’s Team Needs: LG, RT, TE, LB, EDGE

The Giants have CB1 James Bradberry on the trade block, and Gardner would be an ideal replacement in Wink Martindale’s man-heavy defensive scheme. After adding skill and DL talent in recent seasons, going OL + CB would be the balanced approach to the Giants’ rebuild. He has -500 odds of being a top-10 pick. ... Bets previously suggested: Sauce Gardner u8.5 (-200).

8. Falcons - Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson

Sosa’s Team Needs: WR x3, LG, QB, DT, EDGE, FS

Wilson (+135 to be 1st WR drafted) is the one-for-one Calvin Ridley replacement. In fact, some compare Wilson to Ridley as a slender outside player with three-level abilities. As for QB, I think the Falcons’ initial plan of restructuring Matt Ryan is a sign that they didn’t like this QB class, at least inside the top-10. Marcus Mariota ($6.7M in cash spent) is the one-year stop gap before they look at the 2023 class. Even with the recent Jameson Williams steam, Wilson remains the WR1 in consensus mock drafts (7th overall) and has the best odds of being a top-10 overall pick.

9. Seahawks - Utah LB Devin Lloyd

Sosa’s Team Needs: LT, RT, QB, LB, EDGE, CB

New Pick: Finding a LT Duane Brown replacement makes a ton of sense, but the top-3 OTs flew off the board in this simulation. With two 2nd-round picks (40th and 41st overall), the Seahawks are candidates to find QB love later -- both Desmond Ridder (official visit) and Matt Corral (Kiffin family) seem like Pete Carroll types. And inside the top-10, Seattle is a candidate to shake up the draft. Lloyd's buzz has been louder as we get closer to the draft (+1000 to go top-10) because of his character, production, and athleticism. He'd start over Will Barton and would add some pass rush ability to Carroll's post-Bobby Wagner defense. With 11-of-14 mock drafts putting Lloyd ahead of his 18.5 over/under, I don't hate Lloyd -130 to go before 18.5 overall. Not my favorite, but it's reasonable action. ... Bets previously suggested: Devin Lloyd (+2000) to go inside the top-10.

10. Jets - USC WR Drake London

Sosa’s Team Needs: Slot CB, EDGE, WR, Power RB

I personally think the Jets have invested enough into the offense to evaluate Zach Wilson, but their actions suggest they are looking for more – New York was rumored with Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and other stud receivers this offseason. London would complement the current Jets receiving corps best and could take over for Corey Davis ($10.5M in cap savings if cut after this season), as the physical X receiver capable of bunch-set blocking in their balanced offense. The Athletic’s Connor Hughes recently mocked this, sharing a similar evaluation. London has -105 odds of being a top-10 selection. He is my WR1 in this class.

11. Steelers (via WAS) - Pitt QB Kenny Pickett

Projected trade: PIT receives 11th overall (1250 draft chart points). WAS receives 20th, 52nd overall (1230 draft chart points). There's no conference hiccups here, and WAS is missing a 3rd round pick.

Sosa’s Team Needs: QB, LT, C, SS, CB

New Pick: If Pickett happens, it could require a trade up, as both Dane Brugler and Daniel Jeremiah wrote that New Orleans (16th and 18th overall) is Pickett’s floor. The fit in Pittsburgh makes a ton of sense beyond the geographical connection – Pickett is a distributor with the weapons already in place. Long-time GM Kevin Colbert is retiring after the draft and finding a QB could be his parting gift like it was for Ravens’ ex-GM Ozzie Newsome (Lamar Jackson). More importantly, if the Steelers weren’t serious about this incoming QB class, then they wouldn’t have Mike Tomlin on the pro day circuit or they would’ve given Mitchell Trubisky more than $6.3M in cash. Pickett is +130 to be the 1st QB, despite going ahead of Malik Willis in 10-of-14 mock drafts that I track. ... Bets previously suggested: Kenny Pickett (+175) to be the 1st QB.

12. Vikings - LSU CB Derek Stingley

Sosa’s Team Needs: RG, Slot WR, TE, DT, CB

Reunites with LSU legend Patrick Peterson and fills a massive need for new-GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who is an analytical mind likely in favor of filling positions of high value like CB. Stingley has had top-five buzz since his freshman season, so this could easily be a buy low pick. Stingley’s over/under has dropped from 12.5 to 11.5 in recent days. His draft range following a rock solid pro day feels between 5th overall (Giants) to 13th overall (Texans) as a potentially lock-down CB1 in a man-heavy system. ... Bets previously suggested: Derek Stingley u12.5 (-125).

13. Texans - Florida State EDGE Jermaine Johnson

Sosa’s Team Needs: Slot WR, RG, RT, RB, Defense

Houston has been searching for edge rushing help since J.J. Watt’s departure, and Johnson has the elite traits of a potential EDGE1 despite being a very late breakout. Other teams would prioritize college production, but the Texans’ process is all over the place. Give me the over on 9.5 overall (+110) for Johnson with Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, and Walker all firmly projected to go ahead. He’s gone over that number in 9-of-14 mock drafts I trust.

14. Ravens - Purdue EDGE George Karlaftis

Sosa’s Team Needs: WR, LG, C, Slot CB

This seems like the perfect culture fit, and Karlaftis’ power complements 2021 first-round EDGE Odafe Oweh’s speed. Stopping Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow in the division will be a priority for the next half decade plus. For the millionth time, Daniel Jeremiah shares this vision, but this is near the top of Karlaftis' range of draft outcomes, as his over/under is set at 16.5 overall (+150).

15. Eagles - Alabama WR Jameson Williams

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, Slot WR, RB, CB, LB

Trading away a 2022 first-rounder for a 2023 first-rounder is further confirmation that this team is still in rebuild mode, meaning they can be patient with Williams while he rehabs from a torn ACL. Williams and DeVonta Smith (while small) would be an electric combination for Jalen Hurts in 2022 and whoever they truly build around at QB in 2023.

16. Saints - Ohio State WR Chris Olave

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, LT, QB, DT

New Pick: The Saints trade of No. 18 and a 2023 1st-rounder for No. 16 and No. 19 overall is another sign that this team thinks they are in win now mode. To me that means get some weapons around Jameis Winston (and Andy Dalton). Olave is an ideal fit as a vertical threat Z receiver with plus route running ability. He can stretch the field while Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara create yards underneath.

17. Chargers - Georgia DT Jordan Davis

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, RT, RB2, LB

Signing Brandon Staley favorite DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (6’4/305) to a $16.5M guaranteed contract doesn’t necessarily mean the Chargers can’t go beast mode up front with this selection. Davis, Joseph-Day, Khalil Mack, and Joey Bosa would allow the Chargers to lead the NFL in two-high coverages, something Staley wants to do. Davis’ (o14.5 -120) biggest worry is snap count, but the Chargers have the depth (DT Austin Johnson) to make Davis an elite 30-snap player.

18. Eagles - Washington CB Trent McDuffie

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, Slot WR, RB, CB, LB

It’s a premium position for the analytically-savvy Eagles front office, and McDuffie fills a big need at CB2. While small, McDuffie can adjust to the size of the NFL as Darius Slay’s CB2. He has been mocked from 12th to 25th overall in 13-of-14 mock drafts.

19. Saints - Northern Iowa OT Trevor Penning

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, LT, QB, DT

A developmental left tackle with elite athleticism, Penning is an immediate Terron Armstead replacement on a team that doesn’t have the cap space to properly address the position with a veteran. Penning is currently a better run-blocker than pass-protector, which isn’t as big of a deal as it is in other offenses. This has been a quick-hitting, balanced unit recently. Penning has gone before 21st overall in all 14 mock drafts I track.

20. Commanders (via PIT) - Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton

Projected trade: PIT receives 11th overall (1250 draft chart points). WAS receives 20th, 52nd overall (1230 draft chart points). There's no conference hiccups here, and WAS is missing a 3rd round pick.

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, TE2, QB, LB, CB depth

New Pick: The Athletic's Ben Standig is a stud at two things that matter to us right now -- covering the Commanders as a beat reporter and just owning mock drafts for the last decade. His analysis has the Commanders player pool mostly concentrated on WRs and DBs, and he wrote that "Hamilton would be enticing if available." In this iteration, Hamilton is. The slower-than-expected forty time has Hamilton (o9.5 -140) sliding to an 11th overall consensus mock draft ranking after being considered as a top-8 overall player pre-Combine. Washington released safeties Landon Collins and Deshazor Everett this offseason. In this simulation, Washington moves down and still gets someone likely high on their draft board. ... Bets previously suggested: Kyle Hamilton Over 8.5 (-150).

21. Patriots - Boston College IOL Zion Johnson

Sosa’s Team Needs: RG, LB x2, CB

I’m confused at what New England’s plan is on the offensive interior after trading Shaq Mason to the Bucs. It could be as simple as finding his younger replacement here, as Johnson is considered the top guard prospect in the class with high-end athleticism. NFL Network’s Mike Giardi tweeted “Don't be surprised if the #Patriots go w/ a big body if they stay at #21. They've spent a lot of time with some of the top prospects, from  tackles Trevor Penning & Bernhard Raimann to interior players Zion Johnson & Kenyon Green. They have a hole at LG and future tackle issues.” He's very plugged in.

22. Packers - Arkansas WR Treylon Burks

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, Slot WR, DE, LB, RG

New Pick: At least one of Green Bay’s two 1st-round picks will be a WR and having one of the consensus top-five receivers falling to 22nd overall would be an ideal scenario. Burks has the size profile of the X receiver that Green Bay is looking for, but he may need to develop into that role. The good news is that this LaFleur/Shanahan offense features more manufactured touches to receivers than just about any NFL system. One of my new favorite draft props is Burks u23.5 overall (-110). He's gone 23rd overall or before in 12-of-14 mock drafts and was selected 24th and 25th in the other two.

23. Lions (via ARI) - Liberty QB Malik Willis

Projected trade: DET receives 23rd overall (760 draft chart points). ARI receives 32nd, 97th, 177th overall, and a 2023 3rd round pick (about 800 draft chart points). ARI is not only missing a 4th and 5th round pick, but they are also an aging roster that's tight against the cap. They need more picks this year.

Sosa’s Team Needs: QB, EDGE, LB, FS, CB

New Pick: Daniel Jeremiah left Willis off his latest first-round mock draft, and Dane Brugler had him falling to 18th overall. It’s possible that the rawness of Willis’ game isn’t well-liked by the NFL with so many teams feeling comfortable with their current starter. The Lions could justify the gamble late in Round 1 (especially because they hold the 32nd and 34th overall picks), which is why Detroit is +350 to be the team to draft Willis. They can get out of Jared Goff’s contract next offseason after letting Willis hold the veteran’s clipboard in 2022.

24. Cowboys - Texas A&M OG Kenyon Green

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, LG, EDGE, CB depth

New Pick: 9-of-14 mock drafts I track have the Cowboys rolling with an offensive lineman, with 8 specifically mocking a guard. Green is commonly mocked in this range and would be a Day 1 starter with Dallas' OL slowly losing depth in recent offseasons.

25. Bills - Michigan S/CB Dax Hill

Sosa’s Team Needs: LG, RB, Boundary CB

New Pick: Buffalo doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, so they can afford to go best player available here with Hill, who is the only remaining player to be ranked inside the top-20 in both Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler's big boards. Hill is depth behind Micah Hyde (32) and Jordan Poyer (31), is a potential nickel starter, and is a long-term answer with Poyer heading into a contract season.

26. Titans - Penn State WR Jahan Dotson

Sosa’s Team Needs: Slot WR, LG, RB2, NT

New Pick: Tennessee's offense lacks depth everywhere, and Dotson is a versatile receiver with experience in the slot or at Z receiver. That'll be helpful if Robert Woods (ACL) has any setbacks. More importantly, Dotson's primary weakness (strength) can be suppressed with A.J. Brown and Robert Woods handling the bulk of the WR dirty work. Dotson should be efficient away from press man coverage in this play-action-based offense. He has gone top-32 in only 50% of mock drafts I track but ranks 25th overall in Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler's personal rankings.

27. Buccaneers - Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt

Sosa’s Team Needs:  LG, TE, DE, EDGE depth

Vita Vea is a true nose tackle, so Wyatt would line up next door at three tech with William Gholston on a one-year, $4M contract and Ndamukong Suh being a free agent. Wyatt has been included in all mock drafts I trust this month, often going in the early 20s. The Bucs would be stoked if this plays out.

28. Packers - Georgia LB Nakobe Dean

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, Slot WR, DE, LB, RG

New Pick: After rounding out their receiver room, Green Bay finds their new LB2 to pair with 2021 breakout De'Vondre Campbell. Dean has gone top-32 in 8-of-14 mock drafts I trust, and Daniel Jeremiah ranks him all the way up at 13th overall.

29. Chiefs - Penn State EDGE Arnold Ebiketie

Sosa’s Team Needs: X WR, RT, EDGE, CB

Kansas City can save $19.6M against the cap if they release Frank Clark after the 2022 season, and they don't have much depth at EDGE for the 2022 season. Ebiketie is a great athlete who has been mocked inside the first round 36% of the time among the mocks I trust.

30. Chiefs - Georgia WR George Pickens

Sosa’s Team Needs: X WR, RT, EDGE, CB

New Pick: Pickens has only been mocked inside the top-32 in 2-of-14 mock drafts I track, but he is one of the only true X receivers being mocked in the 20s, a position that GB and KC are particularly looking for. Pickens, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Z), JuJu Smith-Schuster (slot), and Mecole Hardman (gadget) complement each other perfectly. The Georgia product is Travis Kelce (33 years old) insurance, too.

31. Bengals - Clemson CB Andrew Booth Jr.

Sosa’s Team Needs: TE, RB2, LG/C, Boundary CB

The Bengals have spent free agency solidifying the offensive line, so the attention turns to the defense here. Booth is the consensus CB4 in the class and has been mocked in 8-of-14 drafts I track. I do like Booth's over 26.5 (-115) after listening to Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein talk about his injury history, but he could easily go Round 1 still. He'd compete with Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie in Cincinnati.

32. Cardinals (via DET) - Minnesota EDGE Boye Mafe

Projected trade: DET receives 23rd overall (760 draft chart points). ARI receives 32nd, 97th, 177th overall, and a 2023 3rd round pick (about 800 draft chart points). ARI is not only missing a 4th and 5th round pick, but they are also an aging roster that's tight against the cap. They need more picks this year.

Sosa’s Team Needs: Boundary WR, LG, EDGE, Boundary CB

New Pick: Arizona has let their best edge rushers walk in recent offseasons and can’t rely on 33-year-old J.J. Watt. Mafe is a developmental edge rusher with high-end athleticism and potential. Both Dane Brugler and Daniel Jeremiah believe Mafe could climb inside the top-25, DJ going as far as mocking him 19th overall and ranking him 26th overall most recently.

Bonus: Tyler Linderbaum's over/under is at 27.5 with -105 odds of going over that. He's gone under that on just 2-of-14 mock drafts. I like the over with most teams in this range already set at center.