Underdog
Network

;

Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Nov 10th 2022

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.

Week 10 QB Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. JAX (30.0 implied points, -9.5 spread)

The only team projected for more than 27.5 points, and we know it's coming through the air.

2. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. WAS (27.5, -11.0)

3. Josh Allen - Bills vs. MIN (26.5, -2)

He reportedly will play, further evidenced by not calling up a 3rd QB up from the practice squad. Schefter and RapSheet report that he can grip the ball and isn't at risk of a setback, something Twitter docs have disagreed with. This is a wild west situation, so I'll lean on the betting markets a bit. The Bills started the week projected for 29 points. That valleyed at 22.75 points, and has since rebounded to 26.5 points. Sounds like the consensus is the Bills will be fine with a tad more risk. Follow the news before lock.

4. Justin Fields - Bears vs. DET (25.75, -3.0)

The designed runs, Fields' improved feel for the offense, and the mouth-watering matchup have me all in for this week.

5. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. CLE (26.0, -3.5)

Haven't seen speed and scheme pair this nicely before. Good for Tua and McDaniel.

6. Dak Prescott - Cowboys @ GB (24.0, -5.0)

Packers defense is suddenly banged up with LB Krys Barnes (concussion), LB De'Vondre Campbell (knee), LB Rashan Gary (ACL, IR), CB Shemar Jean-Charles (ankle), CB Eric Stokes (ankle, knee) all not practicing on Wednesday. Throw in the Coach McCarthy revenge, and I'm in.

7. Tom Brady - Bucs vs. SEA (23.75, -3.0)

The Bucs have to figure out the passing quick game to go on a run. These inefficient Chris Godwin targets are melting my mind. Seattle has been worse over the middle than at the boundary. The matchup is decent at home, especially as a Seahawks offense believer.

8. Jimmy Garoppolo - 49ers vs. LAC (26.25, -7.0)

The skill talent, the home matchup, and quietly Jimmy G's improved play put him on the QB1/2 border in fantasy land. It's hard to argue with San Francisco's 3rd-ranked implied team total this week.

9. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ SF (19.25, +7.0)

Chargers team total in the dirt due to injuries, scheme, and matchup. Impossible to completely count Herbert out, however. This is a difficult rank.

10. Daniel Jones - Giants vs. HOU (22.75, -5.0)

Among the middle of the pack offenses, Jones' rushing numbers are best and the matchup is mouth-watering of course.

11. Derek Carr - Raiders vs. IND (23.0, -6.0)

I question how prepared this Colts coaching staff and how motivated the Colts defense will be given the changes to the organization, but similar questions arrive with Vegas, too. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow surprisingly hit IR this week at the same time that starting LB Blake Martinez retired midseason. There are bad vibes here, so this is purely bet on a the Raiders' okay team total (9th).

12. Marcus Mariota - Falcons @ CAR (22.25, -3.0)

The rushing numbers typically mask his inaccuracy, and the skill talent is good enough for some random upside.

13. Jared Goff - Lions @ CHI (22.75, +3.0)

The Bears aren't tanking everywhere. Just on defense, after trading their top-2 defensive players.

14. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ TB (20.75, +3.0)

A top-10 passing and rushing efficiency offense is projected for under 21 points???

15. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ KC (20.5, +9.5)

16. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ BUF (20.25, +3.5)

17. Kyler Murray (Q) - Cardinals @ LAR (20.0, +1.5)

The Cardinals team total is at a shocking 20.0 points, probably because Kyler (hamstring) went DNP-limited-limited in practice. In addition to the injury, both offenses are playing much slower and playing worse than in previous seasons. Part of that can be blamed by a horrendous interior offensive line that remains decimated by injuries.

18. Jacoby Brissett - Browns @ MIA (22.5, +3.5)

19. Aaron Rodgers - Packers vs. DAL (19.0, +5.0)

I don't expect Romeo Doubs, Sammy Watkins, or LT David Bakhtiari to play.

20. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. NO (19.5, +1.5)

Post-bye rookie bump for him and George Pickens. Hopefully OC Matt Canada self scouted during the bye week. If so, they'd give up on running the ball and throw up prayers to their WRs and Pat.

21. Andy Dalton - Saints @ PIT (21.0, -1.5)

We're getting close to having serious in-game benching risk.

22. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ TEN (17.0, +2.5)

Offenses facing the Titans are passing in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL. The Broncos will have to deal with the Titans' intensity on the road.

23. Ryan Tannehill (Q) - Titans vs. DEN (19.5, -2.5)

The Titans desperately need him healthy, as Malik Willis is barely even a backup NFL QB at this point.

24. John Wolford - Rams vs. ARI (21.0, -1.5)

I don't think Matthew Stafford (concussion) plays due to protocols (DNP-DNP-limited). Wolford will have to run around and put the ball into Cooper Kupp's hands to have a chance behind this offensive line.

25. P.J. Walker - Panthers vs. ATL (19.75, +3.0)

There is in-game benching risk, but he can run and this Falcons defense is broken. Boom-bust.

26. Davis Mills - Texans @ NYG (17.75, +5.0)

27. Taylor Heinicke - Commanders @ PHI (16.5, +11.0)

28. Sam Ehlinger - Colts @ LV (18.25, +6.0)

Not an NFL QB. Not an NFL HC. Not an NFL OC.

Week 10 RB Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Christian McCaffrey

  2. Austin Ekeler - Chargers team total is down horrendous, but Ekeler is on pace for ludicrous receptions this year and had a goal-line TD last week.

  3. Saquon Barkley

  4. Derrick Henry

  5. Nick Chubb

  6. Josh Jacobs

  7. Kenneth Walker

  8. Travis Etienne - This usage is out of control.

  9. Dalvin Cook

  10. Alvin Kamara - No Mark Ingram, but also no C Erik McCoy and RG Andrus Peat.

  11. Tony Pollard - This assumes Ezekiel Elliott (questionable) is out based on late Saturday reports. Pollard will see 15ish touches against a defense that is without front seven starters and was already inviting the run. Pollard should have an efficient day, even if he's a 50% snap player. Start with confidence.

  12. Dameon Pierce

  13. Miles Sanders

  14. Jonathan Taylor - He was a full participant on Thursday and Friday, while Deon Jackson was ruled out. We should expect interim coach Jeff Saturday to pound the damn rock for the rest of the season, and JT appears to be healthy enough. Time to buy the dip if that "dip" exists, as long as expectations remain RB1/2.

  15. David Montgomery - His demise has been greatly exaggerated (for now), especially with the Bears projected for top-10 points this week.

  16. D'Andre Swift - I'm expecting him to return to 10-15 touches this week after only playing 10 snaps last week. Look for a full practice to confirm. Swift was limited on Wednesday.

  17. James Conner - 74% snaps and high value touches in his return. Buy as an upside RB2.

  18. Cordarrelle Patterson - This will be a committee, but one that can jam 15 efficient touches to CPatt.

  19. Leonard Fournette - The floor can fall out at any time. Bucs reporter Greg Auman hinted at it.

  20. Aaron Jones (Questionable) - He was limited all week.

  21. Devin Singletary - There's an argument that Singletary will get more usage with Josh Allen playing but potentially not at 100%.

  22. Najee Harris - His role has rumored to be scaled back. I'd be surprised if he's not in the 50-65% snap range, and he'll be inefficient on them.

  23. Jamaal Williams

  24. Antonio Gibson - This assumes JD McKissic (neck) is out.

  25. D'Onta Foreman - Reliant on neutral and positive game scripts on one of the worst teams in the NFL. Recipe for a very low floor. The good news is that he's been explosive this year.

  26. Raheem Mostert

  27. Jeff Wilson - The Dolphins likely keep this near 50/50 snap split, where Mostert starts and plays on more passing downs and where Wilson provides a spark off the bench in an offense he's familiar with.

  28. AJ Dillon - This assumes Aaron Jones plays, but not at full health.

  29. Khalil Herbert

  30. Kareem Hunt

  31. Tyler Allgeier

  32. Melvin Gordon

  33. Rachaad White

  34. Jaylen Warren

  35. Brian Robinson

  36. Jerick McKinnon (Questionable) - He was added to the injury report on Friday.

  37. Isiah Pacheco

  38. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

  39. Darrell Henderson - Kyren Williams is expected to play. Matthew Stafford isn't.

  40. Malik Davis

  41. Chuba Hubbard - He should have the passing down role after two full practices.

  42. Alexander Mattison

  43. Kenneth Gainwell

  44. Nyheim Hines

  45. Eno Benjamin

  46. Latavius Murray

  47. Kyren Williams (Questionable)

  48. Jordan Wilkins - This assumes Deon Jackson is out.

  49. Dontrell Hilliard

  50. Caleb Huntley

Week 10 WR Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Tyreek Hill

  2. Justin Jefferson

  3. Davante Adams

  4. Stefon Diggs - This assumes Josh Allen is in but not at 100%.

  5. Cooper Kupp - This assumes Matthew Stafford is out. At the same time, Cardinals CB1 Byron Murphy could miss after a DNP on Wednesday. Safety Budda Baker is out.

  6. DeAndre Hopkins - This assumes Kyler Murray (questionable) is out.

  7. A.J. Brown

  8. Jaylen Waddle

  9. Amon-Ra St. Brown - I'll continue betting on his last 12 games, not his last 3 games as his baseline. Lions offense will be without T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Chark, and Josh Reynolds.

  10. CeeDee Lamb

  11. JuJu Smith-Schuster - Highest team total of the week (30.0 points), and his role is by far the safest in the Chiefs' WR group.

  12. Mike Evans - See WR13 Chris Godwin.

  13. Chris Godwin - It doesn't look like it if you're box score watching, but the Bucs are 1st in WR usage by a wide margin over the last month. What am I supposed to do with Godwin, who has been a (positive) model breaker his entire career? He's getting windmill dunked on by my model right now.

  14. Amari Cooper

  15. Chris Olave - Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, and CB William Jackson are out, but T.J. Watt is in and the Steelers are down two iOL starters.

  16. DK Metcalf

  17. Tyler Lockett

  18. Christian Kirk

  19. Allen Lazard - Romeo Doubs (ankle) is out weeks. Sammy Watkins is somewhat banged up. It'll likely be Lazard and Christian Watson in 2-WR sets, and there's a chance Aaron Jones (ankle) is at less than 100%, too. The issue is that the Cowboys defense is lit. Still, volume should win out.

  20. DJ Moore - Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell, CB2 Casey Heyward, and S Erik Harris remain out.

  21. Deebo Samuel - He has a 4.8 aDOT, so his role will have to change with CMC dominating in this portion of the field. More deep shots will be welcomed.

  22. Brandon Aiyuk - Lots of mouths to feed. Jimmy G has to be real good to keep Aiyuk's October pacing.

  23. Joshua Palmer - This assumes Keenan and Big Mike are out.

  24. Terry McLaurin

  25. Darnell Mooney

  26. DeVonta Smith

  27. Gabe Davis - This assumes Josh Allen is in but not at full health. At the same time, Vikings CB2 Cameron Dantzler is out.

  28. George Pickens - Potential Post-Bye Rookie Bump God.

  29. Diontae Johnson - Getting 360 dunked on by my model.

  30. Courtland Sutton - See WR31 Jerry Jeudy.

  31. Jerry Jeudy - The Broncos will have to pass against these Titans, and K.J. Hamler is out.

  32. Michael Pittman

  33. Adam Thielen - T.J. Hockenson in town is a slight downgrade for Thielen.

  34. Drake London

  35. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - This assumes Mecole Hardman is out.

  36. Michael Gallup

  37. Mack Hollins - No Hunter Renfrow (IR) and Darren Waller (IR) help.

  38. Terrace Marshall

  39. Brandin Cooks (Questionable) - He's visibly frustrated, but he's expected to play after going DNP-limited-limited. This is a wild west situation.

  40. Rondale Moore - This assumes Kyler Murray is out.

  41. Kadarius Toney - This assumes Mecole Hardman is out.

  42. Curtis Samuel

  43. Donovan Peoples-Jones

  44. Zay Jones

  45. Christian Watson - He's been injured all year, but this is his best chance of being an every-down player with Romeo Doubs (out) and Sammy Watkins (DNP-limited-limited) banged up. More importantly, Watson got in a full practice Wednesday.

  46. Allen Robinson - This assumes Matthew Stafford is out.

  47. Chase Claypool

  48. DeAndre Carter

  49. Nico Collins (Questionable) - He went limited-limited-limited.

  50. Jarvis Landry (Questionable) - He seems close to returning, especially after a limited practice on Wednesday.

  51. Robert Woods

  52. Kalif Raymond - Josh Reynolds (back) didn't practice Wednesday, and Bears CB2 Kindle Vildor is out.

  53. Darius Slayton - Kenny Golladay is back and will play most snaps.

  54. Wan'Dale Robinson

  55. Marvin Jones

  56. Sammy Watkins

  57. K.J. Osborn

  58. Julio Jones

  59. Isaiah McKenzie - This assumes Josh Allen is out, as the betting market suggests.

Week 10 TE Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Travis Kelce

  2. Dallas Goedert

  3. George Kittle

  4. T.J. Hockenson

  5. Pat Freiermuth

  6. Kyle Pitts

  7. Zach Ertz

  8. Gerald Everett - Extremely difficult matchup.

  9. Dalton Schultz - A full practice on Wednesday has me more optimistic coming off the bye.

  10. Foster Moreau - No Darren Waller (IR) or Hunter Renfrow (IR).

  11. Greg Dulcich

  12. Cole Kmet

  13. Robert Tonyan

  14. Taysom Hill - Adam Trautman and Jarvis Landry being back hurts.

  15. Mike Gesicki

  16. Evan Engram

  17. Cade Otton - Cameron Brate (neck) was a full participant on Wednesday. Expect a rotation between Brate and Otton this week.

  18. Dawson Knox - This assumes Josh Allen is out, as the betting market suggests.

  19. Tyler Higbee - This assumes Matthew Stafford is out after a DNP Wednesday.

  20. Noah Fant

  21. Juwan Johnson

  22. Will Dissly

  23. Logan Thomas

  24. Brevin Jordan

  25. Harrison Bryant

Week 10 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The defenses of the week are the Eagles, Broncos, Bucs, Raiders, Titans, Cowboys, Texans, Lions, Giants, and Saints, BUT this is a great week to completely punt the position. These are some BAD defenses projecting well. As Josh Norris pointed out on Twitter, "What can go wrong?"

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.