Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.
The team total went from 24.5 to 28.5 with the move to Detroit.
The 2022 NFL MVP.
He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video). ... The OL and scheme really gelled the last time they suited up, but Lamar desperately needs Mark Andrews (full on Friday) back to return to elite QB1 status. The Panthers defense has been playing below their player talent all year and now are down some starters. In total, Baltimore has the 2nd-highest team total of the week. I think I got decent action with Josh Norris on Lamar > Fields for the rest of the year.
Dallas Goedert was leading all TEs in EPA per target, so his loss will impact the entire offense. The good news is A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith remain on the team. The Eagles could be less potent for the next month, but those could be downstream effects, not necessarily coming from Hurts' own box score. Expect his NFL-leading goal line role to keep pace. For this week, play volume will be altered by the Colts yawning offense.
After an impressive stretch of games from Fields, I was somewhat surprised to see the Bears team total only at 23.5 points this week against the Falcons. Still, Fields designed QB runs have spiked, leading to QB1 overall production. Let's see if he can keep it up. To me, there's tangible in-pocket progression, even if he's an inconsistent passer at this stage.
The Chargers team total has climbed about 2.0 points since the optimistic news on Mike Williams (full on Friday) and Keenan Allen (full on Friday). Now it's a home game against the best offense in the NFL with a (at least on paper) healthy skill group. It's time to roll.
Vikings are a pass funnel in a lot of categories. Plus, both offenses are top-7 in neutral pace. I think the team totals should be slightly higher with the Cowboys clearly passing more with Dak Prescott back in the lineup (see above).
Fun fact: The Falcons are 3rd in implied points this week. That's because the Bears are tanking on defense (they traded away their two best players on that side of the ball) and improving on offense. This game will be played like how we all play on Madden. QB runs and schemed up shots in the air. Let's ride.
(Is this a bit?)
The offense is beginning to gel with most of them back to full health, and Jimmy G is getting some extra looks on QB sneaks in goal line situations. The 49ers' team total is parked inside the top-5 on the week, as it likely will for the rest of the season. I think Jimmy G is the most underrated Superflex QB. He's a low-end QB1 rest of season.
Worried about T.J. Watt versus this OL, but all other metrics are positive here and it's possible CB2 Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and NFL S1 Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendix) are out. Just no Ja'Marr Chase, so less free YAC.
Lions defense is dead last in basically every category.
Tough matchup efficiency wise, but both teams top-7 in neutral pace with quality offenses.
D.J. Chark returning from IR is helpful.
It's hard to overcome this trend, especially if it was thumb related.
Only thing arguably worse than the Broncos offense (now without Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler) is the Raiders defense.
I don't like this ranking to be honest, but home and a reasonable team total.
Carr has regressed this year, is now without 2-of-4 premium skill guys, and now faces one of the truly stud defenses on the road. Expect lots of check downs against the leading 2-high shell rate defense.
We discussed his film here. In short, Pickett has some gamer to him, but he needs to make better reads, which mostly means pull the trigger on tight window passes to George Pickens.
Houston is a complete run funnel, and Washington is willing to oblige with Heinicke under center.
In a dome now.
The Packers invite the run, and the Titans should oblige. Tannehill's volume likely will be capped, especially on a bummed ankle.
There is in-game benching risk here, but his team total is higher than others in this range.
Nice win (and QB scramble), but I wasn't impressed with the Colts offense last week, and this week's matchup is way tougher.
The offensive line continues to send starters and fill-in starters to IR. Now add in the only above-average skill player (Cooper Kupp) to it, too.
Sounds like we're 1-2 weeks away from Kyler Murray (limited x2). More equipped for an "air raid" type of offense, McCoy (full on Friday) led the Cardinals to their highest neutral pass rate of the year last week. It's unclear who will start on Monday Night Football.
Gets Bill Belichick off the bye in November Foxboro. Wilson has 7 INTs in two starts against him.
Just bad football here.
There is in-game benching risk here.
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Saquon Barkley - Elite matchup vs. DET.
Christian McCaffrey - We discussed his split with Eli Mitchell here.
Nick Chubb - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video).
Jonathan Taylor - We discussed the Colts in depth here. Philly is now 31st in rushing EPA allowed, too, largely because DT Jordan Davis is injured.
James Conner - TDs won't be the same as 2021, but that type of role is back for Conner, as discussed here.
Rhamondre Stevenson - Damien Harris is fully healthy for the first time in weeks, so there's a wide range of outcomes here.
Aaron Jones - TEN is 3rd against fantasy RBs and offenses are choosing to run in neutral situations at the lowest rate in the NFL against TEN. A matchup with the two slowest offenses in the NFL, too.
Dameon Pierce - This is Dameon's team now. It's just a bad team.
Kenyan Drake - This assumes Gus Bus is out or very limited. Baltimore is 3rd in implied points against the 28th-ranked defense vs. fantasy RBs. This sets up very nicely, as he had 20.5 expected half PPR points last game in a similar spot. Upside RB2.
David Montgomery - No Khalil Herbert, 70% plus snaps, and a matchup against the No. 24 fantasy RB defense. The Bears have a top-10 team total again.
Tony Pollard - This assumes Ezekiel Elliott returns, but reports suggest Pollard will get a bigger share of the carries as they "ease" Zeke back in.
Cordarrelle Patterson - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video). ... Very nervous about a 3-RB committee, but the Falcons have the 3rd-highest team total of the week and Patterson is explosive. Chicago is 29th against fantasy RBs and recently traded their top LB and EDGE. It's setting up as a rebound game.
Najee Harris - He reportedly will get a bulk of the carries this week and the Bengals defense has lost important pieces. This sets up nicely (on the low).
Devin Singletary - Singletary played 72% snaps and faces the 31st defense against fantasy RBs.
Antonio Gibson - Texans are last against fantasy RBs and offenses facing them run the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL.
Jamaal Williams - He's the goal-line back at worst and the lead back at best, while D'Andre Swift is scaled back due to injury or play. Weird situation, but give me all the Jamaal dance moves.
D'Andre Swift - We discussed his skill level and recent usage here. He admitted to still be playing through injuries despite not being listed on the injury report.
D'Onta Foreman - Gets going in positive game scripts, but Panthers are 12-point road dogs here. Foreman has lost pass game work to Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear.
Jerick McKinnon - 13.2 and 10.5 expected half PPR in last 2 games, both led the Chiefs RBs.
Isiah Pacheco - He'll start most likely, but we'll see if CEH's Week 10 benching holds. Even last week, Pacheco had 8.9 expected half PPR points. I'm fading the bullishness for the most part, though the Chargers are 30th against fantasy RBs.
Elijah Mitchell - Can eat if the 49ers are winning and Christian McCaffrey has already hit his 20 touches. This is a week where it's possible as 8-point favorites.
Ezekiel Elliott (Questionable) - He's expected to play but will be "eased back in".
Gus Edwards (Questionable) - It sounds like he'll be out or very limited.
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
WARNING: This is the most disgusting WR rankings of the year with MIA, TB, SEA, and JAX on bye.
Stefon Diggs - We're in a dome.
Justin Jefferson - The turf toe is minor.
Davante Adams - There's room for deep target positive regression.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - We showed his full and usage here.
Tee Higgins - PIT is 31st against fantasy WRs. No Ja'Marr Chase.
A.J. Brown - Tough matchup with Colts CB1 Stephon Gilmore.
DeAndre Hopkins (Questionable) - Madness. It's unclear if it's Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy at QB. It's unclear if Marquise Brown (foot) will return. It's unclear how healthy Nuk (hamstring) is after DNP-limited practices. All this ahead of Monday Night Football in Mexico where the game is played at altitude. Sheesh.
Deebo Samuel - Simply a bet on team total in a bad week for fantasy WRs.
Gabe Davis - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video).
Amari Cooper - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video).
Tyler Boyd - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video).
Chris Olave - I don't love this ranking, but who goes ahead? He'll definitely see a lot of Jalen Ramsey this week.
Brandon Aiyuk - They're splitting mid-range WR fantasy usage now, so they have to be light's out efficiency-wise to hit a ceiling. Boom-bust.
Terry McLaurin - I don't love this ranking, but who goes ahead? Houston is 3rd against fantasy WRs because they're so bad against the run, but CB1 Derek Stingley is out.
Michael Pittman - Matt Ryan's return is great news, but we're not completely out of the woods yet because of coaching philosophy. The Colts want to win on the ground and won't be aggressive until needed. We discussed them in detail here.
Kadarius Toney - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video).
DeVonta Smith - He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video). No Dallas Goedert helps Smitty most, and there's a good chance Stephon Gilmore is on A.J. Brown for a lot of snaps. This is the highest Smitty ranking I've had I believe.
DJ Moore - I believe in the no CMC/Robbie splits more than the QB splits.
Courtland Sutton - This assumes Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are out. He had 13.1 expected half PPR last week and the Raiders are 32nd in passing EPA allowed.
Allen Lazard - Worried about play volume, but struggling to find better options this week.
Jakobi Meyers - Won't see that much Sauce Gardner in the slot.
Drake London - Falcons with the 3rd-highest team total.
Christian Watson - Huge conversation on him here.
Keenan Allen (Questionable) - Limited-limited-full this week and he claims to be 100%. There is downside risk here, but also plenty of upside against the Chiefs, who obviously put up points but also play soft two-high defense which plays into Allen's strengths. Big Mike is also expected to play.
Mike Williams (Questionable) - Full practice on Friday, but the first week back from high ankle sprains typically don't go well (especially when arguably rushed). Keenan Allen is expected to play.
Rondale Moore - Madness. It's unclear if it's Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy at QB. It's unclear if Marquise Brown (foot) will return. It's unclear how healthy Nuk (hamstring) is after DNP-limited practices. All this ahead of Monday Night Football in Mexico where the game is played at altitude. Sheesh.
Allen Robinson - This assumes Matthew Stafford plays.
Garrett Wilson - Worried about Belichick off the bye bracketing Wilson.
George Pickens - He had a new role after the bye, as discussed here. CIN defensive metrics are good, but they are without key starters right now.
Diontae Johnson - He's testing my regression patience.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - This assumes no JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Parris Campbell - Major Colts convo here.
Darnell Mooney - Kmet going off deep is bullish for Mooney long-term, and the Falcons are dead last against fantasy WRs. Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell was limited on Wednesday.
Nico Collins - Profile of someone who gets better late in the year.
Darius Slayton - Massive negative regression candidate.
D.J. Chark (Questionable) - He was activated off IR.
Michael Gallup - He doesn't look fully healthy yet.
Brandin Cooks - Reduced to 62% routes in Week 10.
Treylon Burks - 75% routes in return, but TEN last in WR usage over the last month.
Joshua Palmer - This assumes Big Mike and Keenan are in.
Wan'Dale Robinson (Questionable) - Limited-DNP-limited this week.
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Mark Andrews (Questionable) - Limited-limited-full. Let's ride. He was one of "my guys" for Week 11 (video).
Dalton Schultz - I'm all the way in, as debated here.
George Kittle - How are the Cardinals last against fantasy TEs ever single season???
Pat Freiermuth - More slot snaps is a good sign post-Claypool.
Kyle Pitts - The Falcons are 3rd in implied points this week. What do you want me to do?
Dawson Knox - We're in a dome.
Cole Kmet - Fluky TDs (2.7 TDs over expected leads TEs), but offense is improving.
Tyler Higbee - Could be the screen guy post-Kupp. Don't watch the tape. Just refresh the box score. Of note, however, the Saints are 1st against fantasy TEs.
Greg Dulcich - Bad Week 10 box score but 82% snaps is rock solid.
Trey McBride - Massive role post-Ertz but non-existent in all phases in the NFL to date. I personally wasn't a fan of his college tape either. Simply a box score guy from a non-Power 5 school (see: Adam Trautman).
David Njoku (Questionable) - He says he'll play despite being DNP-limited-limited in practice this week. Typically, we see lower production with these type of practice reports. Boom-bust.
Gerald Everett (Questionable) - The Chargers promoted a TE on Saturday, the same day they announced Everett was downgraded to questionable. Not good for his chances of playing.
Isaiah Likely - This assumes Mark Andrews plays.
The defenses of the week are the Ravens, Saints, Bills, Patriots, 49ers, Commanders, Packers, Eagles, Bengals, Jets, Broncos, and Falcons.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.