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Week 5 Battle Royale Rankings & Strategy

Oct 7th 2022

Hayden Winks

Traditional (salary cap) DFS hasn't changed in years and has been infiltrated by the optimizers, but there's a new DFS format on Underdog Fantasy called "Battle Royale". It's 6-round, 6-person snake drafts that take just a few minutes to complete. This week's prize structure has $250k total with $50k to first place on a $5 entry, but there are also $25, $50, and $100 entry options, too. Safe to say the format is growing, thus why I'm putting more time and effort into content around it.

I wrote this general strategy guide for Battle Royale with the main points being: 1) We're still stacking and adding correlation like traditional DFS, and 2) We're still looking for lower rostered plays like traditional DFS. The latter can be exploited even more so in Battle Royale versus traditional DFS because there is an anchoring bias towards the default rankings and ADPs. Let's go over how to exploit it this week.

Stacking Options

Tier 1: Obvious Stacks

  • Josh Allen (1.8 ADP) - The Bills are projected for the most points on the week. If you can somehow stack Allen with Stefon Diggs (4.9 ADP), then do it. If not, then it's time to go to the Gabe Davis (34.5 ADP), Dawson Knox (35.7 ADP), and Isaiah McKenzie (36.0) tier. ... Bounce back options: Pat Freiermuth (35.3 ADP), Najee Harris (35.3 ADP), George Pickens (35.7 ADP), Diontae Johnson (35.8 ADP), or Chase Claypool (undrafted).

  • Jalen Hurts (3.7 ADP) - This stack is easier to complete and has the same weekly upside, so I don't hate picking Hurts 1st overall. A.J. Brown (9.6) with Dallas Goedert (27.8 ADP) would be my favorite stack, but DeVonta Smith (30.0 ADP) is obviously in play, too. The bring back options are quite condensed: Marquise Brown (25.9 ADP), Zach Ertz (30.0), James Conner (35.5 ADP), and Rondale Moore (35.9 ADP).

Tier 2: Mostly Drafted

  • Justin Herbert (17.0 ADP) - I don't think Keenan Allen will play, and Joshua Palmer (36.0 ADP) and Gerald Everertt (34.2 ADP) are also on the injury report. So this could be a big Mike Williams (25.3 ADP) and Austin Ekeler (12.0 ADP) game through the air. If we get late positive news on either Palmer or Everett, they'd be fantastic double stack options. ... Bring back options: Nick Chubb (8.1 ADP), David Njoku (34.9 ADP), Amari Cooper (35.0).

  • Tom Brady (23.3 ADP) - The matchup is clean. The team total is elite. And his weapons are relatively healthy; Mike Evans (10.9 ADP), cover image Chris Godwin (32.8 ADP), Russell Gage (36.0 ADP), Julio Jones (36.0 ADP), and Leonard Fournette (19.2 ADP). Because Brady doesn't run, this is a double-stack squad for the most part. ... Bring back options: Drake London (35.8 ADP) and, if healthy, Kyle Pitts (33.6 ADP).

  • Kyler Murray (25.1 ADP) - Love the game environment and how condensed this team is between Marquise Brown (25.9 ADP), Zach Ertz (30.0 ADP), Rondale Moore (35.9 ADP), and James Conner (35.5 ADP). Given the state of the tight ends this week, almost all of the Kyler teams should include Ertz. ... Bring back options: A.J. Brown (9.6 ADP), Dallas Goedert (27.8 ADP), Miles Sanders (28.9 ADP), DeVonta Smith (30.0 ADP).

Tier 3: Sub-10% Drafted

  • Trevor Lawrence (33.2 ADP) - The matchup is Mr. Clean, and we know Christian Kirk (22.3 ADP) is the passing game focal point. Throw in a Zay Jones (36.0 ADP) or Evan Engram (36.0 ADP) if you'd like to galaxy brain. ... Bring back options: Dameon Pierce (31.2 ADP) or Brandin Cooks (35.7 ADP). I do like these Lawrence-Kirk-Cooks teams.

  • Matthew Stafford (34.6 ADP) - Not the best matchup, but the Rams team total is higher than expected and the target tree is as condensed as it gets between Cooper Kupp (2.1 ADP), Tyler Higbee (30.9), and I guess Allen Robinson (36.0 ADP). ... Bring back options: CeeDee Lamb (18.3 ADP) if healthy.

  • Kirk Cousins (35.3 ADP) - The Vikings team total is sweet, and Justin Jefferson (4.4 ADP) is goated. Double-stacking in-pocket quarterbacks is the way to go in these tournaments, so Adam Thielen (35.9 ADP), Irv Smith (36.0 ADP), K.J. Osborn (undrafted), and Dalvin Cook (20.2 ADP) are in play. ... Bring back options: My god. I guess Khalil Herbert (35.2 ADP) or Darnell Mooney (35.9 ADP).

  • Teddy Bridgewater (35.6 ADP) - He can do a very good Tua impression, and the matchup against this single-high defense with these speedsters is favorable. Tyreek Hill (8.9 ADP) and/or Jaylen Waddle (20.5 ADP) should pop off, if healthy. ... Bring back options: Breece Hall (35.7 ADP), Garrett Wilson (35.9 ADP), or Elijah Moore (36.0 ADP).

  • Geno Smith (35.7 ADP) - Watch this video to get pumped up. DK Metcalf (33.4 ADP) and Tyler Lockett (35.8 ADP) are balling. ... Bring back options: Chris Olave (28.5 ADP) or Alvin Kamara (35.3 ADP).

  • Andy Dalton (36.0 ADP) - This is a galaxy-brainer's galaxy brain, but the Saints team total is strong and the target tree is condensed between Chris Olave (28.5 ADP), Alvin Kamara (35.3 ADP), and Jarvis Landry (undrafted). ... Bring back options: DK Metcalf (33.4 ADP), Tyler Lockett (35.8 ADP), or Rashaad Penny (35.8 ADP).

  • Carson Wentz (35.9 ADP) - With Jahan Dotson out, it's all Curtis Samuel (35.8 ADP) and Terry McLaurin (35.5 ADP). That's nice and completely undrafted basically. ... Bring back options: Derrick Henry (6.8 ADP).

Largely Undrafted Leverage

You can find my weekly rankings here to compare them to ADPs.

  • Alvin Kamara (35.3 ADP) - This is my favorite pick in the entire player pool. I have him inside my top-8 in my RB rankings, and he goes undrafted often due to his injury. The Saints are projected for about 25.0 points this week. Multiple touchdowns are in play.

  • James Conner (35.5 ADP) - This is great leverage off the Kyler/Marquise stacks, of which there are many.

  • Breece Hall (35.7 ADP) - His usage is up big.

  • Jeff Wilson (34.0 ADP) - They play the Panthers.

  • Damien Harris (35.0 ADP) - The Lions can't play defense.

  • Chris Godwin (32.8 ADP) - He was a near full-time player with WR21 fantasy usage in his return. Now he faces the Falcons, where CB1 A.J. Terrell will be busy with Mike Evans.

  • DK Metcalf (33.4 ADP) - Plenty of upside now that he's with the best QB of his NFL career.

  • Gabe Davis (34.5 ADP) - He looked like ass in Week 4 because of the ankle coming off limited-DNP-limited practiced. This week, Davis is practicing in full. Even his skeptics can admit there is a weekly ceiling here.

  • Amari Cooper (35.0 ADP) - This is some leverage off Nick Chubb and David Njoku, and Cooper could benefit from Herbert going crazy against an iffy defense.

  • Terry McLaurin (35.5 ADP) - Nobody is stacking this game, and while McLaurin's downfield only usage has been bad for redraft, it still allows him to have spiked weeks. Love him as a dart throw with Jahan Dotson out and Curtis Samuel dealing with an illness.

  • Brandin Cooks (35.7 ADP) - He has upside WR2 usage.

  • Drake London (35.8 ADP) - Name The Other Falcons Targets If Pitts Is Out Challenge.

  • Elijah Moore (36.0 ADP) - There are isolated matchups against this Dolphins secondary, and nobody is stacking this game. Moore's aDOT is up, leaving him with a lower floor but just as high of a weekly ceiling.