Underdog
Network

;

Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Oct 13th 2022

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.

Week 6 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen - Bills @ KC (28.25 team total, -2.5 spread)

We know the offense is great, so I won't waste time. The only note I must include: offenses facing the Chiefs have the 2nd-highest pass rate in neutral situations, leading to being 26th against fantasy QBs.

2. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. BUF (25.75, +2.5)

We'll monitor the Bills' defensive injuries, but this is an obvious shootout either way. Expect the Bills to play a ton of zone coverage (2nd highest rate) and two-high shell coverage (3rd highest). The Chiefs are used to that though.

3. Kyler Murray - Cardinals @ SEA (26.75, -2.5)

The Cardinals have only completed 26% of their passes with 15+ air yards, the lowest in the NFL. That'll rebound, especially when their WRs are at full health. The Seahawks being dead last in passing EPA is a good week to cash these positive regression tickets. Their 26.75-point team total is much higher than it was in previous weeks.

He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

4. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. DAL (24.0, -6.0)

The Eagles have settled in as an average neutral pass rate team after wavering last season. This will be a big test for this offense against the No. 2 adjusted sack rate defense with injuries sprinkled throughout the OL, but the good news is even if he's under pressure, both offenses are top-4 in neutral pace. There will be volume.

5. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ NYG (25.25, -5.5)

Likely no Rashod Bateman (foot) hurts, but Lamar set a new season-high in carries (12) last week (and QB runs are more valuable than passes for fantasy). This week, Lamar faces his former defensive coordinator, one who typically plays a ton of man coverage (2nd highest rate this year) and blitzes (4th highest rate). I worry about his WRs getting open, but this defense would welcome scrambling.

6. Tom Brady - Bucs @ PIT (26.0, -8.5)

Over the last 3 weeks, the Bucs are 1st in neutral pass rate (67%) by a wide margin. They're mostly healthy at WR and have struggled running the ball (last in rushing EPA), so I envision this trend holding. Don't be scared by the name brand defense in Pittsburgh either. No T.J. Watt and potentially 1-4 starters in the secondary; CB Cameron Sutton (DNP Wednesday), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (DNP), CB Levi Wallace (DNP), and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (DNP). Buffalo did whatever they want against the Steelers last week.

7. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. DEN (25.5, -5.5)

Let's call Chargers LT Ra'Shawn Slater and Broncos EDGE Randy Gregory a wash. Especially against this outlier level two-high shell defense (89% rate, by far the highest in the NFL), the Chargers really need Keenan Allen (hamstring) back. They're currently 3rd in percentage of passes near the sideline, and those types of targets aren't efficient before accounting for CB1 Pat Surtain's presence this week.

8. Joe Burrow - Bengals @ NO (22.5, -1.5)

Joe Burrow hasn't thrown the ball downfield this year, and when he has, it hasn't been as effective. They've dropped from 3rd in catch rate on 15+ air yard passes last year to 22nd this year. Some of it has been because they're facing two-high shells more often. Some of it has been because they haven't taken advantage of their Cover 1/3 opportunities either. The Bengals have dropped from 1st to 14th in yards per attempt against those single-high looks. Most of this will regress to somewhere in the middle, but Burrow needs to hit more throws -- no reason to go from 1st to 22nd in completion percentage over expected -- and the coaching staff needs to move Ja'Marr Chase around more often to get him more easily out of bracket coverage. This is a good matchup to test it, with New Orleans ranking 1st in man coverage (and they could be without CB1 Marshon Lattimore).

We talked about him here, with film.

9. Aaron Rodgers - Packers vs. NYJ (26.25, -7.0)

They've been bad, but the betting markets remain optimistic, giving the Packers the 3rd-highest team total (26.25) of the week. Rodgers should be able to move the ball against this young Jets defense, so it's a clear get right spot for the offense at home. If it doesn't happen this week, it's time to really reset expectations. With that said, Rodgers personally must overcome No. 25 neutral pass rate and No. 31 neutral pace to hit as a fantasy QB. He's stuck on the QB1/2 border depending on matchup.

10. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ MIA (24.5, -3.5)

Not having Xavien Howard (questionable) and Byron Jones (out) has really hurt this Dolphins defense, one that is in a single-high shell at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL. Miami is suddenly 30th against fantasy QBs on No. 30 passing EPA allowed. Justin Jefferson, who ranks 2nd in yards per route run (4.4) versus single-high shells, should go ham.

11. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. ARI (24.25, +2.5)

Hopefully you've been watching our show because the Geno Smith tape (video) has been very good all year. This is a legit offense led by a legit QB, and this week they face the No. 32 adjusted sack rate and No. 28 passing EPA defense. Even before Rashaad Penny's injury, the Seahawks pivoted to a pass-first offense, ranking 6th in neutral pass rate.

We talked about him here, with film.

12. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. CAR (25.5, -10.5)

Why do the betting markets keep projecting the Rams for so many points? The OL is shattered and the non-Kupp skill players can't create on their own. At least the Rams catch a traveling-west Panthers squad that fired their defensive coordinator and head coach this week.

13. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars @ IND (20.0, +2.0)

TLaw is leading the NFL in success rate against MOFC (middle of field closed) defense, and the Colts defense is 2nd in MOFC rate.

14. Jimmy Garoppolo - 49ers @ ATL (25.0, -5.5)

A boom-bust QB2 during bye week season, Jimmy Garoppolo has multiple-touchdown upside with the 49ers' 25.0-point team total but offers no floor with their No. 28 neutral pace and No. 31 neutral pass rate. At least the Niners' iffy OL won't be tested by the No. 31 adjusted sack rate defense.

15. Justin Fields - Bears vs. WAS (19.0, +0.0)

Fields remains an outlier in sacks taken, but last week's game was encouraging, as he showed full field reads, downfield accuracy, and scramble ability. This is a week to get ahead of what could be a decent enough second half of the year after learning a new offense. Washington's defense is led by dolts, leading to bottom-8 passing EPA numbers.

16. Daniel Jones - Giants vs. BAL (19.75, +5.5)

Jones is averaging a career-high 8.2 carries and 46.0 rushing yards per game in this new offense that features zero (0) talent at receiver or tight end. His rushing ability paired with Saquon Barkley is essentially the entire offense. Baltimore played better in recent weeks but remains dead last against fantasy QBs and offenses facing the Ravens are choosing to pass in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL.

17. Marcus Mariota - Falcons vs. SF (19.5, +5.5)

He's averaging 49.7 rushing yards in his three losses, and the Falcons are 5.5-point home dogs here. While still good, the Niners' defense could be missing DE Nick Bosa (groin), DE Samson Ebukam (Achilles), DT Arik Armstead (foot, ankle), DT Javon Kinlaw (knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee), and S Jimmie Ward (hand), so they're less formidable of an opponent if Kyle Pitts and Drake London return.

18. Jacoby Brissett - Browns vs. NE (22.75, -2.5)

This sets up as one of the most run-heavy games of Week 6. When they do pass, expect a ton of single-high and man coverage.

19. Carson Wentz - Commanders @ CHI (19.0, +0.0)

Stud CB1 Jaylon Johnson returns to face some Terry McLaurin on the outside. Wentz can make some downfield throws against this single-high defense, but the OL is a legit disaster. The C and LG were down bad (read: badddddddddd) last week.

20. Matt Ryan - Colts vs. JAX (22.0, -2.0)

It doesn't look great.

21. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ LAC (20.0, +5.5)

He's averaging just 3.2 carries and 13.5 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. Those used to be 5.6 and 31.3 before 2021. Wilson isn't a good enough passer in this offense to make up for that huge difference.

22. Kenny Pickett - Steelers vs. TB (17.5, +8.5)

I think Pickett played way better than his box score indicated. I'm optimistic he can keep Diontae Johnson and George Pickens afloat.

  • Pass success rate: Pickett (10th out of 36 QBs) vs. Trubisky (32nd)

  • Comp % over exp: Pickett (2nd) vs. Trubisky (30th)

23. Zach Wilson - Jets @ GB (19.25, +7.0)

The Jets are running more with Wilson back, and offenses facing the Packers are running the ball in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate. There are overall play volume concerns here, in addition to the Packers' defense being top-10 in passing EPA, adjusted sack rate, and against fantasy QBs.

24. Andy Dalton - Saints vs. CIN (21.0, +1.5)

They are dead last in neutral pace over the last three weeks, and Michael Thomas (toe), Chris Olave (concussion), and Jarvis Landry (ankle) didn't practice on Wednesday. We'll see if they go with Jameis Winston (limited) this week.

25. Mystery QB - Patriots @ CLE (20.25, +2.5)

It'll be all ground game this week.

26. Skylar Thompson - Dolphins vs. JAX (22.0, -2.0)

Not an NFL starting QB.

27. Cooper Rush - Cowboys @ PHI (18.0, +6.0)

Not an NFL starting QB.

28. P.J. Walker - Panthers @ LAR (15.0, +10.5)

The Underdog Network has a podcast with Steve Smith if you haven't heard. It's tight.

Week 6 RB Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Saquon Barkley

  2. Nick Chubb - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.

  3. Austin Ekeler

  4. Leonard Fournette

  5. Christian McCaffrey

  6. Rhamondre Stevenson - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.

  7. Alvin Kamara - He's better without the WRs in the lineup and with Andy Dalton under center. Just look at these Jameis Winston splits below.

  8. Joe Mixon

  9. Dalvin Cook - He's not playing the same allotment of snaps as before. It's unclear if this is shoulder related or a new coaching staff's decision.

  10. Aaron Jones

  11. Breece Hall - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  12. Miles Sanders

  13. Ken Walker - We talked about him here, with film.

  14. Darrell Henderson - Cam Akers is a surprise out due to personal reasons (video). Henderson had 13.0 expected half PPR points on 82% Week 1 snaps when Akers was in the doghouse. I'm expecting similar, if not better, numbers here. In Week 1, the Rams lost by a billion to the Bills, and this week, the Rams are hosting the coach-less Panthers at home as 10-point favorites. .... And for the true sickos, go stash Kyren Williams. His Week 1 injury had a 6-8 week timeline, so he could be in the mix soon.

  15. David Montgomery - He immediately retook the clear 1A role. Washington is 2nd in light box rate and last in stacked box rate, which invites the run. Don't dare the Bears into having a good time.

  16. Najee Harris - Jaylen Warren has impressed, but mostly in garbage time. I'm betting on Pickett, who throws underneath more often, to be good for Harris moving forward.

  17. Eno Benjamin - This assumes James Conner (DNP Wednesday) and Darrel Williams (DNP Wednesday) are out.

  18. Jeff Wilson - Tevin Coleman mixed in early after Schefter hinted at this happening the week prior. Wilson and Coleman both looked great last week, so there's some volatility here. We talked about him here, with film.

  19. Raheem Mostert (Questionable) - The usage and pop are there, but Skylar Thompson is QBing and stud LT Terron Armstead (DNP Wednesday) had a setback.

  20. Melvin Gordon - This is a volatile situation with Latavius Murray in the mix as Gordon's early-down insurance. Mike Boone has juice but isn't reliable and could be stuck in a passing down role.

  21. Devin Singletary

  22. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

  23. Kareem Hunt

  24. James Robinson - He's positive game script and TD dependent, with Travis Etienne getting the explosive looks.

  25. Deon Jackson - Both Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines (concussion) were ruled out. Last week, Jackson had 10.5 expected half PPR points to Phillip Lindsay's 9.0, and Jackson was more productive on his chances.

  26. Ezekiel Elliott

  27. Travis Etienne - We talked about him here, with film.

  28. Tony Pollard

  29. Michael Carter

  30. J.K. Dobbins - There's not enough RB usage to be losing snaps to Kenyan Drake.

  31. AJ Dillon

  32. Rachaad White - We talked about him here, with film.

  33. Phillip Lindsay - See RB25 Deon Jackson.

  34. Alexander Mattison

  35. Joshua Kelley - He's taken over the RB2 job for the Chargers.

  36. Tevin Coleman - We talked about him here, with film.

  37. Brian Robinson - We talked about him here, with film.

  38. J.D. McKissic - This backfield is a total mess.

  39. Jerick McKinnon

  40. Tyler Allgeier - This is as ugly as it gets.

  41. Khalil Herbert

  42. Chase Edmonds

  43. Antonio Gibson

  44. Samaje Perine

  45. Jaylen Warren - We talked about him here, with film.

  46. Caleb Huntley

  47. Mark Ingram

  48. Mike Boone

  49. Kenneth Gainwell

  50. Latavius Murray

Week 6 WR Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Cooper Kupp

  2. Justin Jefferson - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video). 2nd in YPRR vs. single-high coverage (4.4) against a defense that runs single-high coverage at the 4th-highest rate. Oh, and the top two CBs could miss.

  3. Stefon Diggs

  4. Ja'Marr Chase - We talked about him here, with film.

  5. Mike Evans - The Steelers secondary is banged up bigly.

  6. Marquise Brown

  7. Deebo Samuel - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  8. A.J. Brown - He's been running cold on TDs. That should correct.

  9. Mike Williams - This assumes Keenan Allen (hamstring) is out, but this is not a good individual matchup. The Broncos play two-high coverage at the highest rate (89%) -- where Williams is 59th out of 86 WRs in yards per route run (SIS) -- and have elite CB1 Pat Surtain.

  10. DK Metcalf - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.

  11. Courtland Sutton

  12. Tyreek Hill

  13. Jaylen Waddle

  14. Amari Cooper

  15. Michael Pittman - We talked about him here.

  16. Tyler Lockett - "Eruption spot", per charts, per sources.

  17. CeeDee Lamb

  18. Christian Kirk

  19. Gabe Davis - We talked about him here, with film.

  20. Chris Godwin

  21. Curtis Samuel - We talked about him here, with film.

  22. Drake London - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video). The 49ers (banged up) defense plays zone defense at the highest rate (71%) in the NFL, and London is 12th in yards per route run versus zone out of 73 qualifiers.

  23. DeVonta Smith

  24. Allen Lazard

  25. Jakobi Meyers

  26. Adam Thielen

  27. Terry McLaurin - Expect some CB Jaylen Johnson, who is a stud.

  28. Devin Duvernay - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  29. JuJu Smith-Schuster - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  30. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  31. Diontae Johnson - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  32. George Pickens - We talked about him here, with film.

  33. Tyler Boyd - This assumes Tee Higgins (DNP Thursday) is out.

  34. Isaiah McKenzie - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  35. Rondale Moore - We talked about him here, with film.

  36. Garrett Wilson

  37. Elijah Moore - It's all deep targets for him now.

  38. D.J. Moore

  39. Romeo Doubs

  40. Joshua Palmer - This assumes Keenan Allen is out.

  41. Brandon Aiyuk

  42. Darnell Mooney

  43. Jerry Jeudy

  44. Zay Jones

  45. Russell Gage

  46. Michael Gallup

  47. Corey Davis

  48. Allen Robinson

  49. Alec Pierce

  50. Marquez Callaway - This assumes everyone is out.

  51. Tre'Quan Smith - This assumes everyone is out.

  52. Marvin Jones

  53. Randall Cobb

  54. Chase Claypool

  55. Darius Slayton - This assumes everyone is out.

  56. Donovan Peoples-Jones

  57. Demarcus Robinson

  58. K.J. Osborn

  59. Noah Brown

  60. Mecole Hardman

  61. A.J. Green

  62. DeVante Parker

  63. Robbie Anderson

  64. Khalil Shakir

  65. Ben Skowronek

  66. Skyy Moore

  67. Jauan Jennings

  68. Kendrick Bourne

Week 6 TE Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Mark Andrews

  2. Travis Kelce

  3. Zach Ertz

  4. Tyler Higbee

  5. Dallas Goedert - We talked about him here, with film.

  6. David Njoku - We talked about him here, with film.

  7. George Kittle

  8. Kyle Pitts (Questionable) - He was limited all week.

  9. Dawson Knox - He was limited all week but left off final list.

  10. Hayden Hurst - He's one of "my guys" for Week 5 (video).

  11. Gerald Everett

  12. Irv Smith

  13. Evan Engram

  14. Hunter Henry

  15. Taysom Hill - We talked about him here, with film.

  16. Cameron Brate

  17. Robert Tonyan

  18. Juwan Johnson

  19. Will Dissly

  20. Mo Alie-Cox

  21. Dalton Schultz (Questionable) - He was limited-limited-full.

  22. Cole Kmet

  23. Noah Fant

  24. Tyler Conklin

  25. Zach Gentry - No Pat Freiermuth.

Week 6 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The defenses of the week are the Commanders, Rams, 49ers, Ravens, Bears, Bucs, and Eagles, with the Chargers, Packers, Browns, and Bengals also in play.

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest. Here are my downloadable rankings. Save this as a CSV, change "ID" to "id", and upload them on the Rankings tab on Underdog desktop. Good luck!

Column is coming soon.