Underdog
Network

;

Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Oct 27th 2022

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.

Week 8 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen - Bills vs. GB (29.0 team total, -10.5 spread)

Watch "Scheme" with Josh Norris and Josh McCown.

2. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. PIT (27.0, -10.5)

3. Joe Burrow - Bengals @ CLE (24.0, -3.0)

We broke him down with his tape here (video). It does hurt that Ja'Marr Chase (hip) is out, however, as the Bengals' implied team total has dropped 1.25 points since the news.

4. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ TB (23.25, -1.0)

Mark Andrews (DNPx3) and Rashod Bateman (DNP-DNP-Full) are both battling injuries right now, but at the same time, so are the Bucs. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Carlton Davis, and S Antoine Winfield are out.

5. Kyler Murray - Cardinals @ MIN (22.75, +3.5)

They've been playing with more pace in recent weeks.

6. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ DET (27.5, -3.5)

The Lions defense stinks, so Miami has the 2nd-highest team total of the week.

7. Kirk Cousins - Vikings vs. ARI (26.25, -3.5)

The Vikings are quietly top-10 in neutral pace and neutral pass rate, plus the Cardinals are playing faster on offense in recent weeks. This is a potential shootout spot.

8. Dak Prescott - Cowboys vs. CHI (26.0, -9.5)

I didn't see any side effects of the thumb injury last week, and the Cowboys could pass more this week with Ezekiel Elliott (DNP Thursday) banged up. Plus, the Bears just traded away their best pass rusher this week.

9. Tom Brady - Bucs vs. BAL (22.25, +1.0)

The offense only works when they go pass-happy. This week, they get the Ravens, who have the 6th-highest neutral pass rate allowed on defense. This is aligning to be a volume-based game for Brady through the air, even though the team total is fairly low at 22.25 points.

10. Derek Carr - Raiders @ NO (25.5, -1.5)

11. Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. NYG (24.0, -3.0)

He's leading the NFL in completion percentage over expected, but a lot of those intermediate throws have been to DK Metcalf, who won't play.

12. Daniel Jones - Giants @ SEA (21.0, +3.0)

Setting career highs in carries per game (8.9) and rushing yards per game (49.0) under coach Brian Daboll.

13. Marcus Mariota - Falcons vs. CAR (23.0, -4.5)

33.9 rushing yards per game keeps him in the upside QB2 mix.

14. Jared Goff - Lions vs. MIA (24.0, +3.5)

Surprisingly projected for 24.0 points by the betting markets. Goff is a product of his supporting cast, who should be headlined by both Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift again this week. It helps that Miami is 28th in passing EPA allowed.

15. Justin Fields - Bears @ DAL (16.5, +9.5)

Fields is coming off a career-high in QB designed runs, something he'll need to be a fantasy QB2 on the road against the No. 4 fantasy QB defense.

16. Malik Willis - Titans @ HOU (19.75, -0.5)

Offenses facing the Texans defense choose to run the ball at the 6th-highest rate. Don't have to dare the Titans to cooperate, especially with a mobile QB. The Titans team total dropped from about 22 points to 19.75 points since Tannehill's injury.

17. Andy Dalton - Saints vs. LV (24.0, +1.5)

Given the performance-based starting nod by the coaches. Not a bad week to get that confidence boost at home against the worst defense against fantasy QBs. The Saints have a healthy 24.0-point team total.

18. Sam Ehlinger - Colts vs. WAS (21.25, -3.0)

We broke him down with his tape here (video). In short, I think the Colts play slower, go more run heavy, and Ehlinger scrambles far more than Matt Ryan did. Vegas doesn't think this is a great move for the team as a whole, as their implied team total dropped from about 24 points to 21 points since their last game ended.

19. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. SF (21.0, +1.5)

A game that features the No. 32 and No. 28 neutral pace offenses. After missing a bunch of players, the Niners' No. 3 adjusted sack rate defense is getting healthier at the worst time for Stafford.

20. Jimmy Garoppolo - 49ers @ LAR (22.5, -1.5)

If Deebo Samuel is healthy, there's no excuses. This offense is loaded.

21. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. DEN (21.0, -2.5)

The Broncos defense is No. 1 against fantasy QBs, while leading the NFL in two-high shell coverages. Lawrence will have to dink-and-dunk down the field to be successful and will have his hands full against the simulated pressures that this unit brings. This is a huge task for a young offense.

22. Jacoby Brissett - Browns vs. CIN (21.75, +3.5)

No David Njoku hurts.

23. Mac Jones - Patriots @ NYJ (21.0, -1.5)

We broke down the entire Patriots QB controversy here (video). In short, Mac Jones >>> Bailey Zappe.

24. P.J. Walker - Panthers @ ATL (18.5, +4.5)

We broke him down with his tape here (video). He was phenomenal last week. Please go watch that. Shoutout to him.

25. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ JAX (18.5, +2.5)

What is Russ if he can't scramble on his injured hamstring?

26. Aaron Rodgers - Packers @ BUF (18.5, +10.5)

We played "WHO HE MAD AT?" on the lastest podcast here (video). This week, the Packers have the 4th-lowest team total of the week.

27. Taylor Heinicke - Commanders @ IND (18.25, +3.0)

We broke him down with his tape here (video).

28. Davis Mills - Texans vs. TEN (19.0, +2.5)

29. Kenny Pickett - Steelers @ PHI (16.5, +10.5)

Offenses facing the Eagles choose to pass at the 4th-highest rate in neutral situations, and this won't stay in a neutral situation most likely. There will be check-down volume. Just maybe not touchdowns. Pittsburgh is dead last in projected team total this week.

30. Zach Wilson - Jets vs. NE (19.5, +1.5)

We broke him down with his tape here (video). It's not good.

Week 8 RB Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Saquon Barkley

  2. Derrick Henry - Houston is dead last against fantasy RBs.

  3. Josh Jacobs

  4. Christian McCaffrey - Had him as RB20 last week, but he will be far more involved this week, especially with Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out.

  5. Tony Pollard - This assumes Ezekiel Elliott (knee) doesn't play after going DNP on Thursday. The Cowboys are 5th in team total this week.

  6. Kenneth Walker

  7. Alvin Kamara

  8. Nick Chubb

  9. Joe Mixon

  10. Dalvin Cook

  11. Jonathan Taylor

  12. Dameon Pierce

  13. D'Andre Swift - He fully practiced all week and was left off the injury report. It's go time.

  14. Raheem Mostert - The Dolphins have the 2nd-highest team total this week.

  15. Miles Sanders

  16. Travis Etienne - We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  17. Rhamondre Stevenson

  18. Eno Benjamin - James Conner (ribs) is out, but Darrel Williams remains questionable after being limited all week. Benjamin has had 11.5 and 17.1 expected half PPR points in his two starts.

  19. Aaron Jones - The Packers have the 4th-lowest team total this week.

  20. Michael Carter - The Jets are 5th in RB fantasy usage as a team this year, and with Zach Wilson at QB, they've been more reliant on the ground game in neutral situations. James Robinson didn't look healthy last week (a trend that's picked up since Week 4) and he won't have a full grasp of the playbook in Week 8. Carter should be the guy, as Breece Hall was over the last month when he was the RB5 in expected half PPR points. With that said, the Jets aren't projected for a ton of points with OL injuries and QB play holding back the offense. Carter, to me, hasn't been as good this year either, particularly hasn't shook arm tackles at the same rate as last year. Ultimately, I view Carter as a solid RB2 this week with him holding a 55/35/10 split over Robinson and Ty Johnson for the rest of the year.

  21. Leonard Fournette - He's played really poorly, showing less physicality up the middle and in pass protection. Distantly dead last in rushing EPA per carry with their LG and C struggling, the Bucs could pass more and get rookie Rachaad White more involved.

  22. Devin Singletary - Zack Moss was healthy scratched in Week 6, leading to more work for Singletary. This assumes that happens again. It helps that the Packers are 30th in rushing EPA allowed and offenses facing the Packers are choosing to pass in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL. This is a good spot, all things considered, for Singletary.

  23. Najee Harris - The Steelers have the lowest team total of the week.

  24. D'Onta Foreman - No Chuba Hubbard this week leaves Foreman and undrafted rookie Raheem Blackshear (5'9/190) as the only active RBs on this beautiful Friday afternoon. We broke down Foreman's tape here (video).

  25. David Montgomery

  26. Gus Edwards - We broke him down with his tape here (video). Of note, Edwards was limited all week in practice, so his floor remains very low.

  27. Brian Robinson - This is a 3-RB backfield, with J.D. McKissic playing less but still holding down the 2-minute drill and with Antonio Gibson splitting early down work with Robinson. BRob will be game script dependent, which isn't a great sign on the below-average Commanders.

  28. Melvin Gordon

  29. Darrell Henderson - No Cam Akers or Kyren Williams this week. There remains no floor here, as McVay has flipped between RBs at will.

  30. Damien Harris

  31. Khalil Herbert

  32. Tyler Allgeier

  33. Jamaal Williams

  34. Kareem Hunt - A fantasy buy low, not because of his workload but because he could be traded, especially if the Browns lose this week.

  35. Rachaad White - Make sure he's not somehow on your waiver wire.

  36. Latavius Murray

  37. Antonio Gibson - See RB27 Brian Robinson.

  38. AJ Dillon

  39. James Robinson (Questionable) - See RB17 Michael Carter. We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  40. Jeff Wilson

  41. Chase Edmonds

  42. Alexander Mattison

  43. Kenyan Drake

  44. Nyheim Hines

  45. Ronnie Rivers - There are rumors.

  46. Darrel Williams (Questionable)

  47. Rex Burkhead

  48. Mark Ingram

  49. Caleb Huntley

  50. James Cook

Week 8 WR Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Tyreek Hill

  2. Stefon Diggs

  3. Justin Jefferson

  4. Cooper Kupp

  5. Davante Adams

  6. Tee Higgins - Ja'Marr Chase (hip) is out 4-6 weeks. With Chase healthy so far, Higgins is the WR12 per healthy game in half PPR. If the Bengals' league-high pass rate from the last two weeks hold, then Higgins and Tyler Boyd are going to be balling. I think they remain pass and shotgun heavy after having so much success recently. It plays to Joe Burrow's strengths.

  7. Chris Godwin - The WR5 in expected half PPR points over the last month, but 3rd worst in TDs over expected, meaning he's been very unlucky. This will self correct. Trust.

  8. Mike Evans

  9. DeAndre Hopkins - We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  10. Amon-Ra St. Brown

  11. Chris Olave - This assumes Michael Thomas (DNPx2) and Jarvis Landry (DNPx2) are out.

  12. Jaylen Waddle

  13. A.J. Brown

  14. CeeDee Lamb

  15. Tyler Lockett - This assumes DK Metcalf is in but not at full health after going DNP-DNP-limited in practice.

  16. Gabe Davis

  17. Tyler Boyd - We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  18. Amari Cooper

  19. DJ Moore - Here are his expected half PPR splits: 2021 without CMC (13.7 per game), 2021 with CMC (9.9 per game), 2022 with CMC (9.4 per game), and 2022 Week 7 in a rare big win (12.1). He's far better without Christian McCaffrey as expected. More importantly, P.J. Walker was so good last week (video) and they get a friendly matchup against the No. 32 fantasy WR defense. A.J. Terrell could miss. I hope you bought low.

  20. Brandon Aiyuk - This is without Deebo Samuel.

  21. Brandin Cooks - This assumes no Nico Collins. There is also the trade deadline narrative working in his favor, which perfectly aligns with a friendly matchup against the No. 31 fantasy WR defense.

  22. Michael Pittman - We broke him and Sam Ehlinger down here (video). In short, this is bad news for Pittman. The Colts, while being bad, were 1st in completions per game and passing yards per game with Matt Ryan. Ehlinger is far more likely to run and slow the game down, which means far fewer pass attempts in general.

  23. DeVonta Smith

  24. Christian Kirk - Very tough matchup.

  25. Courtland Sutton

  26. Terry McLaurin

  27. Adam Thielen

  28. George Pickens

  29. Diontae Johnson

  30. Curtis Samuel

  31. Drake London - The talent has to win out, right? RIGHT?

  32. Wan'Dale Robinson - We broke him down with his tape here (video). In short, he's better in full PPR with an aDOT of 5.0 yards. I think he's quick but limited in general.

  33. Jakobi Meyers

  34. Michael Gallup - Noah Brown and Ezekiel Elliott didn't practice all week. Dalton Schultz is active but not at full health. It's a buy low spot.

  35. DK Metcalf (Questionable) - He will apparently play despite a patella tendon injury that kept him as DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. Something doesn't feel right here.

  36. Rashod Bateman - This assumes Mark Andrews is in. Of note, the Bucs have ruled out three (3) defensive backs. This is a get right spot after dealing with a foot injury recently. He was a full participant on Wednesday.

  37. Jerry Jeudy - NFL trade candidate.

  38. Darnell Mooney

  39. Isaiah McKenzie

  40. Zay Jones

  41. Devin Duvernay

  42. Chase Claypool

  43. Hunter Renfrow - Darren Waller (hamstring) is out.

  44. Donovan Peoples-Jones

  45. Garrett Wilson - We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  46. Elijah Moore - He will return to near every-down reps with Corey Davis (knee) ruled out.

  47. Rondale Moore - A.J. Green and Robbie Anderson are expected to play more, which could mean 3-WR sets only for Rondale.

  48. Romeo Doubs - There is bench risk if Christian Watson is active. We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  49. Sammy Watkins - This assumes Allen Lazard (shoulder) is out. We'll update these Packers WRs later once we get news on Watson.

  50. Christian Watson (Questionable) - He's been limited so far. We'll update Packers WRs later.

  51. Tyquan Thornton - Led Patriots in routes run in Week 7.

  52. DeVante Parker

  53. Robert Woods - Going to Malik Willis hurts.

  54. Josh Reynolds - This assumes he's healthier than last week.

  55. Marvin Jones

  56. Parris Campbell - See WR24 Michael Pittman.

  57. Allen Robinson - Van Jefferson could make ARob a non-full time player.

  58. Julio Jones

  59. Mike Thomas - When Tee Higgins missed time in Weeks 1 and 5, Thomas was the one entering in 3-WR sets. He's a 6th rounder with a career 0.90 YPRR, but Thomas has potentially 40 routes in his bag this week, so there's still a mini ceiling in this offense.

  60. Marquez Callaway

  61. Marquise Goodwin - I'm letting Josh Norris rank Goodwin this week after seeing how optimistic he was on the podcast here (video).

  62. Darius Slayton

  63. Mack Hollins

  64. Olamide Zaccheaus

  65. Tre'Quan Smith

  66. Alec Pierce - See WR24 Michael Pittman.

  67. Chris Moore - No Nico Collins.

  68. Terrace Marshall Jr.

  69. Robbie Anderson

  70. Noah Brown (Questionable) - He was DNP all week.

Week 8 TE Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Mark Andrews (Questionable) - He didn't practice this week, meaning he'll be out or will not be at full health as we witnessed last week. We'll have to follow pre-game news.

  2. George Kittle - This assumes Deebo Samuel (DNPx2) is not at full health.

  3. Zach Ertz

  4. Dallas Goedert

  5. Tyler Higbee

  6. Hayden Hurst

  7. Pat Freiermuth

  8. T.J. Hockenson

  9. Kyle Pitts - We broke him down with his tape here (video).

  10. Dawson Knox

  11. Taysom Hill

  12. Greg Dulcich

  13. Cade Otton - Cameron Brate and Russell Gage are out. Julio Jones is questionable after DNP-DNP-limited practices, so there is volume available. While he has struggled blocking, Otton has been better than expected over the middle in my opinion. You can do worse!

  14. Mike Gesicki

  15. Robert Tonyan

  16. Dalton Schultz (Questionable) - This assumes he's not at full health after being limited all week.

  17. Harrison Bryant

  18. Irv Smith

  19. Evan Engram

  20. Foster Moreau - He had 6.8 expected half PPR points last week.

  21. Juwan Johnson - More snaps without Adam Trautman.

  22. Hunter Henry

  23. Tyler Conklin

  24. Noah Fant

  25. Will Dissly

  26. Austin Hooper

  27. Cole Kmet

Week 8 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The defenses of the week are the Cowboys, Colts, Eagles, Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks, Bills, and Falcons (?). Never doubt the sickos chart.

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.