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Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Nov 2nd 2022

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.

Week 9 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen - Bills @ NYJ (29.5 team total, -12.5 spread)

2. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ HOU (29.5, -14.0)

3. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. TEN (29.25, -12.0)

4. Kyler Murray - Cardinals vs. SEA (26.25, -2.0)

5. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ NO (24.5, -2.0)

No Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, or Gus Edwards. But Lamar is just that dude. Don't over panic.

6. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ CHI (25.25, -5.0)

7. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. CAR (25.0, -7.5)

Terrible left and right tackle play, combined with some random touchdowns doomed the Bengals on Monday Night Football without Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow did miss some throws, too, but I think they get right at home against an up-and-down Panthers defense. At least the betting markets agree. Cincy has a 25-point team total.

8. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ ATL (26.5, -3.5)

This assumes Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are out. At least, the Falcons are on schedule.

9. Aaron Rodgers - Packers @ DET (26.5, -3.5)

10. Tom Brady - Buccaneers vs. LAR (22.75, -3.0)

11. Derek Carr - Raiders @ JAX (24.75, -1.5)

12. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ ARI (24.25, +2.0)

13. Justin Fields - Bears vs. MIA (20.25, +5.0)

14. Marcus Mariota - Falcons vs. LAC (23.0, +3.5)

15. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ WAS (23.5, -3.5)

16. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. LV (23.25, +1.5)

17. Jared Goff - Lions vs. GB (23.0, +3.5)

18. Andy Dalton - Saints vs. NO (22.75, +2.5)

19. Mac Jones - Patriots vs. IND (22.5, -5.5)

20. Taylor Heinicke - Commanders vs. MIN (20.0, +3.5)

21. Matthew Stafford - Rams @ TB (19.75, +3.0)

22. P.J. Walker - Panthers @ CIN (17.5, +7.5)

23. Sam Ehlinger - Colts @ NE (17.0, +5.5)

24. Malik Willis - Titans @ KC (17.25, +12.0)

Ryan Tannehill still could play per RapSheet, but it's trending towards Willis, who I don't think looked ready for NFL action yet.

25. Zach Wilson - Jets vs. BUF (17.0, +12.5)

26. Davis Mills - Texans vs. PHI (15.5, +14.0)

No Brandin Cooks. What a waste of a season, Texans.

Week 9 RB Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Austin Ekeler

  2. Derrick Henry

  3. Alvin Kamara - You can't draw it up better for Kamara with Andy Dalton being named the starter. Look at all these checkdowns and screens underneath.

  4. Rhamondre Stevenson - No Damien Harris means Mondre could see upwards of 20.0 expected half PPR points. He'll dominate snaps and has looked exceptional on tape.

  5. Aaron Jones - The Lions aren't good on defense if you haven't heard.

  6. Josh Jacobs

  7. Kenneth Walker

  8. Travis Etienne

  9. Miles Sanders - It's hard to balance the Eagles' "eruption spot" matchup (HOU is 32nd versus fantasy RBs) with Sanders' on/off splits with Boston Scott. Sanders has averaged 9.7 expected half PPR points in games with Scott and had 22.8 & 15.1 expected half PPR points without him. Scott is used to close out games.

  10. Dalvin Cook

  11. Joe Mixon

  12. Dameon Pierce

  13. D'Onta Foreman - Chuba Hubbard is out. Foreman had 22.7 expected half PPR in a win last week as the primary. Fire him up.

  14. Leonard Fournette

  15. Raheem Mostert - I expect Jeff Wilson to mix in for 25-40% snaps (mostly early downs) when he's acclimated to the offense, one he's familiar with already. Mostert maxes out as a 50-60% ballcarrier, so this is a slight downgrade if anything with Edmonds shipped out. I expect him to keep passing downs and starting duties. This week, the Dolphins get the No. 28 defense against fantasy RBs, and they just shipped off NFL tackle leading LB Roquan Smith.

  16. Jamaal Williams - RapSheet says Swift "will likely be used sparingly. They'll be careful with his playing time." That likely means Williams will get the goal line role and some more between the 20s work. It's great timing for him, as the Packers run defense is 30th in rushing EPA allowed, 20th versus fantasy RBs, and offenses facing them choose to run at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

  17. James Conner (Questionable) - Over the last month, Eno Benjamin has been the RB15 in fantasy usage. I expect him to be placed in the "Chase Edmonds role" while Conner handles all goal line work when he returns.

  18. Michael Carter - 14.1 expected half PPR points in his first game without Breece Hall. Expect James Robinson to play more, however, and the Jets get the impossible matchup with the Bills this week. Carter needs early-down targets to break out of boom-bust RB2/3 territory. We can feel even better about Carter if James Robinson (knee) doesn't suit up.

  19. David Montgomery - He's holding onto the 2-for-1 drive rotation for dear life. I guess it's bullish that the Bears didn't trade him at the deadline. He actually had a season-high 12.6 expected half PPR points on 70% snaps last week.

  20. Kenyan Drake - Gus Edwards (hamstring) is out. It'll be Drake with Justice Hill at RB, while the Ravens also look to replace Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman.

  21. Deon Jackson - Jonathan Taylor is out. Jackson will be a 60% plus percent snap player with early-down specialist Phillip Lindsay rotating in. Jackson is unlikely to see as many targets as he did a few weeks ago in a similar workload, however, as the team is less pass-heavy now with Sam Ehlinger. He had 10.5 and 19.8 expected half PPR points in those games.

  22. Cordarrelle Patterson - He says he's at 90% after a knee scope. We have 4 days to get that close to 100%. The matchup is solid if he's active. The Chargers are 31st against fantasy RBs, particularly allowing too many big plays in the ground game. Patterson's specialty. NFL Network's Mike Garafolo says he "wouldn't expect" CPatt to see his usual 15 touches. The floor is lower here.

  23. Devin Singletary - This assumes Nyheim Hines plays some passing downs in his debut, while Singletary handles more ground work.

  24. Antonio Gibson - No J.D. McKissic means Gibson will see passing downs in addition to splitting some early-down work with Brian Robinson. Gibson is just fine as a low-end RB2.

  25. AJ Dillon - The recent usage (RB53) doesn't align with this ranking at all, but the matchup is just too good to overlook during bye week hell.

  26. Khalil Herbert

  27. D'Andre Swift - We'll have to monitor pre-game news, but it sounds like Swift will be active and used sparingly. There's a 0.0 game in his range of outcomes.

  28. Isiah Pacheco

  29. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

  30. Brian Robinson Jr. - Looks very slow, but no J.D. McKissic helps.

  31. Tyler Allgeier - This assumes CPatt is back, putting Allgeier into a reduced No. 2 role.

  32. Eno Benjamin - This assumes James Conner returns.

  33. Rachaad White

  34. Darrell Henderson - No Kyren Williams yet, but Cam Akers will be active after returning to practice. This is the wild west for RB snaps and touches. Tread lightly.

  35. Alexander Mattison

  36. Justice Hill

  37. Ronnie Rivers

  38. Jeff Wilson

  39. Boston Scott

  40. James Robinson (Questionable)

  41. Nyheim Hines

  42. Dontrell Hilliard

  43. Samaje Perine

  44. Rex Burkhead

  45. Kenneth Gainwell

  46. Jerick McKinnon

  47. Craig Reynolds

  48. Malcolm Brown

  49. James Cook

Week 9 WR Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Tyreek Hill

  2. Stefon Diggs

  3. Justin Jefferson - The lone ingredient missing for rare production are more deep targets. That's the difference between Jefferson and Tyreek Hill this season.

  4. Cooper Kupp - He had a full practice on Friday. It's go time.

  5. DeAndre Hopkins - The Cardinals are throwing to their WRs a ton, and the new wrinkle to Arizona's offense is more 2-TE sets. It's easier to "earn targets" in 2-WR sets. Hopkins looks completely normal on tape, too.

  6. Davante Adams

  7. A.J. Brown

  8. Amon-Ra St. Brown - Simply, buy low.

  9. Chris Godwin - The most obvious buy low of the week, per analytics. Massive TD regression candidate.

  10. Mike Evans

  11. Tee Higgins

  12. Jaylen Waddle

  13. Chris Olave - This assumes Michael Thomas (IR) and Jarvis Landry (limited x3) remain out. Baltimore is 28th against fantasy WRs, with opposing offenses choosing to pass at the 4th-highest rates in neutral situations.

  14. D.J. Moore - We should all be welcoming more intermediate and deep targets from P.J. Walker. Sadly, the Bengals top CB Chidobe Awuzie tore his ACL last week.

  15. DK Metcalf

  16. JuJu Smith-Schuster - The Titans are 27th versus fantasy WRs and offenses facing the Titans are choosing to pass at the 3rd-highest rate in neutral situations.

  17. Gabe Davis

  18. Tyler Boyd

  19. Joshua Palmer - No Keenan. No Big Mike. No Parham. And even DeAndre Carter has an illness that's caused him to miss practice time. It's now or never for Palmer. Let's ride.

  20. Tyler Lockett

  21. DeVonta Smith

  22. Christian Kirk - The Raiders are 31st in passing EPA allowed.

  23. Terry McLaurin - The Vikings are 26th against fantasy WRs.

  24. Michael Pittman - Season-low 43% neutral pass rate with Ehlinger, who played alright in general. Pittman is unlikely to see top-20 fantasy usage for the rest of the way. He simply just has to be really good. This week, it's the Patriots who could sell out to stop Pittman, clearly Indy's best skill player.

  25. Allen Lazard (Questionable) - He was limited all week. Follow the news, but based on practice squad call ups, I think he plays.

  26. Jakobi Meyers - He'll avoid him some by going in the slot, but some snaps against the physical Stephon Gilmore isn't my favorite for Meyers. Indy is 2nd-best against fantasy WRs this year.

  27. Adam Thielen

  28. Devin Duvernay

  29. Garrett Wilson - The targets will be there.

  30. Rondale Moore

  31. Allen Robinson - 93% snaps in Week 8 even with Van Jefferson back.

  32. Curtis Samuel - Season-low 7.3 expected half PPR points in Week 8 with Heinicke.

  33. Drake London

  34. DeAndre Carter (Questionable) - This assumes Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are out. Carter has missed practice time with an illness this week, however.

  35. Darnell Mooney

  36. Robert Woods - The Titans will have to pass this week vs. KC.

  37. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  38. Josh Reynolds

  39. Romeo Doubs - This assumes Allen Lazard plays. Last week, Christian Watson (questionable) and Sammy Watkins were starting in 2-WR sets over Doubs and even played some Amari Rodgers in 3-WR sets over him. But he had a massive second half of the game following Watson's concussion. Keep in mind, this was with Lazard inactive. If both Watson and Lazard are active, there are playing time concerns.

  40. Sammy Watkins

  41. Demarcus Robinson

  42. Zay Jones

  43. Marvin Jones

  44. Julio Jones

  45. Isaiah McKenzie

  46. Kalif Raymond

  47. Mack Hollins

  48. Tyquan Thornton

  49. Hunter Renfrow

  50. Terrace Marshall

  51. K.J. Osborn

  52. Mecole Hardman - This assumes Kadarius Toney is active.

  53. Alec Pierce

  54. Parris Campbell

  55. Phillip Dorsett - No Brandin Cooks on TNF.

  56. Chris Moore

  57. Chase Claypool - Not expecting a full set of snaps in his Bears debut.

  58. Olamide Zaccheaus

  59. Kadarius Toney

  60. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

  61. Van Jefferson

  62. Elijah Moore - Not expecting him to be a full-time player.

Week 9 TE Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Travis Kelce

  2. Zach Ertz - Expected half PPR points per game: With DeAndre Hopkins (7.5), without (13.4). Similar splits to 2021. This week, however, the Seahawks' league-worst defense against fantasy TEs are on schedule.

  3. Kyle Pitts - Betting on talent and betting against the Falcons maintaining this outlier level of pass attempts.

  4. Gerald Everett - He has on/off splits with Donald Parham (concussion), but even if he returns, Everett is a positive regression candidate with TDs. More importantly, this assumes Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are out.

  5. Dallas Goedert

  6. Isaiah Likely - He had a season-high 10.8 expected half PPR points last week and could be the Ravens second-best passing game weapon with both Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman out.

  7. Tyler Higbee - The Bucs are 29th against fantasy TEs and may be thinking about benching Devin White if he doesn't turn things around.

  8. Taysom Hill - Adam Trautman and Jarvis Landry do return, but Mark Ingram being out come introduce more rushing.

  9. Foster Moreau - 93% Week 8 routes, and he's averaged 8.4 expected half PPR with Darren Waller out.

  10. Evan Engram

  11. Mike Gesicki

  12. Hayden Hurst

  13. Dawson Knox

  14. Robert Tonyan

  15. T.J. Hockenson - This assumes he doesn't know the whole playbook.

  16. Cade Otton - This assumes Cameron Brate is out.

  17. Tyler Conklin

  18. Noah Fant

  19. Hunter Henry

  20. Juwan Johnson - Adam Trautman returns.

  21. Will Dissly

  22. Cole Kmet

  23. Logan Thomas

  24. Brevin Jordan - Will rotate with O.J. Howard and Jordan Akins on TNF.

Week 9 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The defenses of the week are the Dolphins, Chiefs, Patriots, Eagles, Bills, Bengals, Bucs, and Vikings.

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.