These are post-draft opinions and post-draft model projections, specifically looking at NFL production for the first four years. Updated: August 26th.
Model: 98th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Michael Thomas
Profile: A dual-sport recruit (4-star in football), London (6’4/219) played basketball at USC in addition to being a first-round NFL prospect. As a junior, London averaged 135.5 yards per game with 98th percentile PPR per game production. USC threw him 3.75 screens per game (way more than players of his size) because he is fluid, physical, and has more agility than given credit for. While not a speedster downfield, London separates on underneath routes as a player who threatens at all three levels, specifically on jump balls downfield. In total, he averaged 3.7 yards vs. man coverage and had 110 yards per game on passes beyond the line of scrimmage. Both are very good. I don’t directly see the Mike Evans comparisons (fewer deep crossing routes and more screens), but I do see paths to being a top-15 NFL receiver as he develops. London will be 20 years old on draft night.
Fit: Atlanta’s receiver depth chart is barren and a quarterback upgrade is surely coming in 2023 when the class gets better. This passing offense will funnel through London and Pitts only for the foreseeable future.
Model: 97th percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: D'Andre Swift
Profile: Hall (5’11/217) was a 4-star recruit and 3-year starter at Iowa State (inside and outside zone scheme). He was an early declare (20.8 years old) after totaling 1,750 total yards in back-to-back seasons, enough for 94th percentile adjusted production. Hall is built and plays like a bellcow, maxing out at 273 carries (2020) and 36 receptions (2021). His elusive jump cut ability and passable power led to 74 forced missed tackles per PFF (0.29 per carry) in 2021 and a career 5.5 yards per carry. At his worst, Hall stumbled in space often, didn’t press the line of scrimmage, and only averaged 2.8 yards after contact in 2021, the worst of the consensus top-10 backs. But he has above-average straight-line juice, as evidenced by his 96th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.39 forty and 40-inch vert) and his college football high 8.8 yards per carry on pitches and stretch runs. Overall, Hall’s value comes in disguising pass/run tendencies as a three-down player because he can rip off big plays as a rusher and is fluid as a pass-catcher. He needs to really improve his pass protection recognition and get rid of the cut blocks to maximize his passing-down value, however, otherwise he’ll be somewhat of a fantasy tease.
Fit: This offense doesn't throw to their RBs often, especially with this WR/TE depth, and they rotate their RBs based on situations more than most. Hall's ceiling will be loosely dependent on Zach Wilson's development and how much Michael Carter stays involved. Carter seems good enough to have a role. It's not the best fit for Hall.
Model: 91st percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: J.K. Dobbins
Profile: A 3-star recruit out of high school, Walker (5’9/211) started out as an extremely patient, bursty early-down rusher at Wake Forest before becoming a Heisman candidate as a true junior in 2021 for Michigan State (inside and outside zone scheme). Walker led college football with 89 missed tackles forced per PFF (0.34 per carry) with 4.5 yards after contact, the best in the class. He presses the offensive line and manipulates linebackers well with good vision and timing before making second level defenders miss with elusiveness, short-area burst, and quality power. Walker’s breakaway speed is above average, too, clocking in a 4.38 forty (89th percentile adjusted SPARQ). His third-down ability is by far his biggest question mark, as he only had a 5% reception share at Michigan State and used cut blocks as a crutch in pass protection. Walker was late to getting to the check down often, too, likely because of his overall inexperience on passing downs. Overall, Walker possesses high-end rushing skills and projects as a 200-275 carry player immediately. Anything in the pass game is a bonus, though he at least wasn’t credited with a drop in 2021 by SIS. The feather in his cap was Daniel Jeremiah gushing over Walker's character.
Fit: In year one, the fit is below-average. Drew Lock will cap this offense entirely, and Rashaad Penny is around on a $5.3M contract. But Penny's injury history is as bad as it gets and after that rookie season, Walker's fit should be good. Pete Carroll wants to Establish The MFin run, Seattle is finally adding to the OL, and Walker is a very good rusher himself. There isn't a standout RB3 in this class, so Walker's value is higher based on position, too.
Model: 81st percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: SEC DeVante Parker
Profile: A highly touted 5-star recruit, Pickens (6’3/195) broke out as a true freshman (60.5 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game, both Georgia highs in 2019) before injuries, including a torn ACL, derailed his college career. Pickens was at least able to return for the Bulldogs’ National Championship run as a Junior before declaring early. He’s a physical X receiver, who lined up out wide on 99% of snaps in 2021. Pickens can win at all three levels and faced a ton of press man coverage in the SEC with mixed results because he invites contact (leading to some on-field brawls and wild blocks), but he has my ball mentality in the air and fights for yards after the catch underneath. To reach his 5-star ceiling, Pickens needs to stay healthy, regain some of his athleticism post-surgery (52nd percentile adjusted SPARQ athlete), and clean things up (like knowing where the first-down marker is). If he hits, Pickens is a No. 1 X receiver.
Fit: I'm in the minority, but I don't mind Pickens being attached to Kenny Pickett for their entire rookie contracts. Pickett is an accurate quarterback with familiarity in this offense. Plus, with Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson in this division, the Steelers will be chasing in shootouts often. Pickens has an easier path to a ceiling if Diontae Johnson, who is in the final year of his rookie contract, leaves for whatever reason.
Model: 97th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Odell Beckham if he develops some.
Profile: The 5-star recruit was a 3-year contributor and junior season standout at Ohio State. Wilson (6’0/183) could line up all over the formation but played out wide on 82% of snaps in 2021, a year where he averaged 3.0 yards per route run versus man coverage en route to 70-1058-12 receiving. He is a fantastic athlete with incredible burst (4.38 forty), jumping ability (123 broad), and massive hands (9 7/8 inches). Wilson is a yards after the catch threat on screens and crossing routes, plus can get vertical. Sometimes Wilson can oversell routes with choppy footwork and chaotic rhythm, but as a 21-year-old early declare, it seems like a very fixable issue long term. Overall, Wilson has an Odell Beckham-like ceiling as an undersized outside receiver with tons of juice.
Fit: This is not a good fit. In year one, Wilson could be the No. 3 target behind Corey Davis and Elijah Moore. Wilson needs Davis to be released next year (likely) and needs Zach Wilson to develop to reach his year-two ceiling. Even if so, this offense tends to be slower-paced and run-heavy, especially after investing in Breece Hall and Michael Carter.
Model: 97th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Bigger Brandin Cooks
Profile: A 4-star recruit to Ohio State, Williams transferred to Alabama ahead of his junior season and immediately became the Tide’s best skill player. Williams averaged 105 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns (96th percentile adjusted production) with 3.3 yards per route run versus man coverage. Even among SEC players, his speed stood out. Like legit track speed. Although slightly slender (6’2/190ish) for a receiver who lined up out wide on 76% of snaps, Williams can press vertically against man and has the yards of the catch skills underneath to be a No. 1 NFL receiver. If not for a torn ACL in the National Championship, Williams could’ve been labeled as the top receiver in this loaded draft class. He could be a lengthier version of Brandin Cooks.
Fit: This is a great fit for Williams as the rest of the offense's strengths are all underneath. Jared Goff is a serviceable passer capable of producing for fantasy WRs, and the Lions will be in the elite QB prospect market in 2023. Williams will be better in best ball and half/non PPR.
Model: 96th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Tyler Lockett
Profile: Olave (6’0/187) was a 3-star recruit and 3-year starter for Ohio State who set career highs (65-936-13) as a senior in 2021. The smoothest receiver in the class, Olave mostly played Z receiver (82% wide) and operated as a downfield target. His no-wasted movement skillset and speed make him an ideal No. 2 target for an aggressive passing offense. Because of his size, Olave had some issues against press man coverage, resulting in a below-average 1.3 yards per route run versus man coverage according to Sports Info Solutions (though target competition worked against him). That’s fine because he won’t be placed on the line of scrimmage that often. Olave is on the Will Fuller spectrum (and that’s a good thing) as a high-end No. 2 receiver.
Fit: The Saints' depth chart behind Michael Thomas isn't even worth mentioning, and Olave is the perfect complement to MT, who is very likely to be on the team for at least two more years. Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton aren't sexy, but they can keep a 2nd pass-catcher afloat, especially if Alvin Kamara is suspended or begins wearing down.
Model: 89th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Big 10 Darnell Mooney
Profile: Dotson (5’10/178) was a 4-star recruit and 2-year starter at Penn State, setting career highs (91-1182-12) as a senior. He played out wide on 79% of his senior snaps but might mix into the slot more at the next level because of his size. When outside, Dotson stresses defenses vertically with quality speed (4.43 forty) and jumping ability (36-inch vert). He’s much longer than his height/weight suggests, possessing fantastic plucking skills away from his body. Dotson will be an asset in the schemed touch game (backfield opportunities and screens) a la Darnell Mooney, but he could fade against more physical corners. His 2.2 yards per route run versus man coverage is on my radar. Ultimately, Dotson has some Emmanuel Sanders like upside as a No. 2 receiver but probably needs to be a No. 3 target to start his NFL career.
Fit: I don't like the fit as a rookie with Carson Wentz throwing to Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Logan Thomas, and two running backs, but he could have a blank slate in 2023. Wentz's contract has $0 guaranteed after this year, and McLaurin could be a trade candidate if he asks for too much money. Samuel's contract can get cleared after 2022, too.
Model: 50th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Round 4 Josh Jacobs
Profile: A 4-star recruit, Pierce never was a full-time player in four seasons at Florida (gap and zone scheme) despite having a 5’10/218 frame. He was held to 123 and 119 touches in his last two seasons (17th percentile adjusted production) but did score 16 touchdowns as a senior and caught 19 passes despite playing time issues. Pierce is a low-to-the-ground power rusher with a jump cut and truck stick, leading to 3.65 yards after contact and an elite 0.39 forced missed tackles per carry. Defenders are simply sorer leaving games against Pierce, who seeks contact at the end of his runs. Pierce tested like a 40th percentile adjusted SPARQ athlete (4.59 forty) with a shockingly bad 2nd percentile three cone, but he had more balance than that on tape while running behind PFF's No. 121 run-blocking OL. It’s unclear why Pierce didn’t play more, but the tape shows more of a ceiling than what his production would indicate, especially after showcasing above-average pass protection. This sometimes happens at the upper-end programs, so keep the light on. Pierce's upside is similar to James Robinson.
Fit: The Texans will likely be bad for most of Pierce's rookie contract, but the current depth chart is surpassable with Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead sitting at the top.
Model: 85th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Golden Tate
Profile: Moore (5’10/195) was a 3-star recruit and 3-year contributor before declaring early after averaging 107 yards per game as a junior at Western Michigan. The 21-year-old had 96th percentile adjusted production on 96th percentile yards per team pass attempt. He did so lining up out wide on 65% of snaps after playing in the slot on 88% of snaps the year prior. Moore has inside/outside versatility with plenty of burst (4.41 forty and 125-inch broad) for his stocky frame. Unlike other potential slot receivers, Moore doesn’t have elite bend (63rd percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism), which means he has a vertical slot projection at the very worst. His upside is hidden with wild releases at the line of scrimmage, arguably the best in the class. It’s possible Moore is a slot in 3-WR sets while still playing in 2-WR sets like Golden Tate.
Fit: Pairing with Patrick Mahomes long-term is amazing, and it could look really, really good starting in 2023. Travis Kelce will be 34 years old then, JuJu Smith-Schuster is only on a one-year contract, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling could be cut with $4M in dead money next year if he face plants in 2022. Moore easily could be a mid-season or post-season target in dynasty if he just doesn't earn many looks in year one.
Model: 75th percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: Kenyan Drake
Profile: A 3-star JUCO recruit, White (6’0/214) transferred to Arizona State (zone and gap scheme) where he averaged 135 total yards and 1.46 total touchdowns per game from 2020-21. He has serviceable wiggle at the first level with 4.48 forty speed on the backend (84th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism). White has NFL size but isn’t a powerful rusher (0.24 missed tackles per carry and 3.4 yards after contact). Instead, White has nice patience and burst in short spaces, with his biggest value coming on passing downs. He was very fluid as a receiver (3.4 receptions per game) with routes beyond checkdowns, including a 2022 prospect high 15 screens. Out of 251 RB qualifiers, White was 2nd in PFF receiving grade and had good awareness on blitzes/stunts in pass protection. Overall, White is a passing down starter with enough three-down ability to be vaulted into a bigger role if necessary. The red flag in his profile is being 23 years old. I'm concerned that I like White more than the NFL does.
Fit: White got better draft capital than expected and is attached to Tom Brady (ever heard of him?) for at least his rookie season, though Brady is unsigned beyond 2022. Fournette's contract is big enough in year to keep White in backup duties, but he'll compete with Giovani Bernard and Ke'Shawn Vaughn for handcuff responsibilities. In year two, the Bucs could save $3.5M on Fournette's deal via release. Not likely, but it's at least possible.
Model: 92nd percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: SEC Laviska Shenault
Profile: Burks (6’2/225) was a 4-star recruit and 2-year starter at Arkansas before declaring early on 86th percentile adjusted production. Despite a massive build, Burks was used all over the field (74% slot, 18% wide, 8% everywhere else), including in the backfield and as a motion player to get him in space at all costs. He faced press as an X receiver only on occasion but handled it very well, averaging 3.6 yards per route run versus man coverage in 2021 with 20 receptions on 37 routes as the isolated receiver. Burks has room for improvement out wide, however, as he currently relies on bullying defensive backs at the line of scrimmage. That won’t translate cleanly against NFL CBs. Adding a release package out wide would send him to the moon but leaves his floor lower than other SEC first-round prospects. His 41st percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.55 forty and 7.28 three cone) was disappointing, too, especially on a fast turf in Indianapolis. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler noted that Burks was close to 240 pounds during his 2021 season. Not sure I like that at 6’2” flat, so I view him as the most boom-bust prospect in the class.
Fit: Burks hit the landing spot jackpot. Not only does he replace A.J. Brown, but Ryan Tannehill is probably under contract for two more seasons and this offense doesn't run traditional routes as often as other offenses because they're so play-action heavy. Burks' rawness outside was my biggest concern and that should be mitigated here. He could see 100-120 targets as a rookie if Robert Woods' ACL rehab has any hiccups.
Model: 63rd percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: Alabama Jordan Howard
Profile: Robinson waited patiently at Alabama (zone scheme) behind Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris before totaling 1,639 yards and 16 touchdowns as a redshirt senior (41st percentile age-adjusted production). The 4-star recruit has muscles on top of muscles (6’2/224), a physical profile that translates inside. Robinson can run through tackles (forced 0.29 missed tackles per carry), consistently falls forward for an extra yard, and has a decent cutback thanks to vision on zone runs. He unfortunately doesn’t have the contact balance (below-average 3.3 yards after contact) to create much beyond that, and his pro day confirmed that with a 8th percentile three cone and 3rd percentile shuttle. Robinson caught 35 passes in his final season (way more than most big backs) but was poor in pass protection, opting for cut blocks way too often. Overall, Robinson projects as a backup with some short-yardage committee value. He had 52nd percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.53 forty), largely buoyed by his size.
Fit: Buying Robinson is betting against Antonio Gibson, who might be the most overrated running back in the NFL. Gibson is a fumble or a few missed holes away from loosing his grasp on early-down duties. Robinson threatens him, and he has soft enough hands to be a third-down option behind J.D. McKissic. Both Gibson and McKissic's contracts are up after 2023.
Model: 88th percentile prospect among drafted QBs
Comp: Ryan Tannehill
Profile: My full Kenny Pickett column is here.
Fit: He was recruited by Steelers OC Matt Canada at Pitt, worked out in the same facility as the Steelers in college, and walks into a lineup that features Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris, all of whom are on rookie contracts. The fit couldn't be more perfect with this culture and shoutout potential in the AFC North (Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson).
Model: 73rd percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: Slightly smaller Tony Pollard
Profile: Dalvin’s younger brother, James Cook, was a 4-star recruit and 4-year committee back at Georgia (gap and zone scheme). He is undersized (5’11/195) and was often subbed in on passing downs, leading to 27 receptions without a single drop per Sports Info Solutions as a senior. The Bulldogs used him in pony personnel (2-back sets) as the motion man capable of creating in space off of end-arounds. Cook’s best traits are his short-area explosiveness (76th percentile broad jump) and long speed (4.42 forty), but he had underwhelming wiggle for a back of his size (54th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism), resulting in a below-average 0.22 missed tackles forced per carry. Overall, Cook looks like Tony Pollard or a faster Kenny Gainwell, someone who will always have a capped workload but should be an efficient complement and third-down back. Cook is a versatile player with straight-line juice.
Fit: The Bills have a designed role for Cook as a pass-catcher like J.D. McKissic. The issue is that Buffalo hasn't involved their RBs much since Josh Allen was around, and Devin Singletary is a favorite to hold down rushing responsibilities in 2022. The good news is that this offense will be good, and Singletary is unsigned after Cook's rookie season.
Model: 69th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Group of 5 Martavis Bryant
Profile: Pierce (6’3/211) was a 3-star recruit and track/volleyball/basketball standout before signing with Cincinnati. He was a late breakout and stayed through his senior season (52-884-8) because he’s a raw, toolsy player still learning how to use his hands and fight off more physical corners. Pierce had 51st percentile adjusted production (41st percentile yards per team pass attempt), but there is a ceiling to chase because of his 83rd percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism. Pierce mosses dudes with a 40.5-inch vertical and can stack press man corners with impressive long speed (4.41 forty). He’s currently a vertical route and jump ball specialist, but he can sink his hips, so a full route tree is at least possible long term. Pierce can get manhandled in press (forgettable 2.7 YPRR vs. man coverage) because he’s slender, ultimately leaving him on the backup or fringe starter tier as a lower-volume X or Z receiver in the NFL.
Fit: Pierce's first two seasons, at least, will come with Matt Ryan as his quarterback. That's pretty good, especially given this relatively weak receiver depth chart. Piece's downfield abilities pair nicely with possession receiver Michael Pittman underneath. Throw in the pathetic AFC South division, and this is a locked in win for Pierce.
Model: 60th percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: Lamar Miller
Profile: White was the 9th overall high school recruit (5-star) and the RB1 overall in his recruiting class. Early on at Georgia (gap and zone scheme), White suffered two torn ACLs and struggled in 2020 before somewhat bouncing back last season (62 total yards and 0.73 total TDs per game). Physically, he looks like an NFL back (6’0/215), flashes rare burst (4.40 forty and 90th percentile broad jump) to get to the second level and beyond, and finishes run with physicality. That gives him plenty of upside if his elusiveness comes back post-surgeries. White needs to make more defenders miss in open space (below-average 0.23 forced missed tackles per carry) and improve his vision/timing with more on-field reps to reach his ceiling. He was a committee back each season, heading to the sideline often on passing downs in favor of 2022 scat back prospect James Cook, so his fit in the passing game is a total projection. Overall, White hasn’t played like an NFL starter yet, but the physical tools are there if he can get healthier and develop. Boom. Bust.
Fit: Both Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake are unsigned after White's rookie season. This offense should be pretty sweet with Derek Carr and his skill players under contract beyond 2022. White needs development after missing so much time at Georgia, but he has a ceiling others in this range don't have based on his profile and the Raiders' 2023 RB depth chart.
Model: 56th percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: Mike Davis
Profile: Spiller (6’0/217) was a 4-star recruit and 3-year starter at Texas A&M (inside and outside zone scheme) with 203, 208, and 204 touches before being an early declare. He is a mid-sized back who can play in both ground and pass games. Spiller has below-average top speed (4.63 forty) and short-area burst (22nd percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism) but has some elusiveness and flexibility to make defenders miss in space. PFF credited him with 56 missed tackles forced (0.31 per carry) and 3.6 yards after contact. Spiller looks for the big play often, sometimes too often. In fact, out of 72 RBs with at least 100 zone carries on 1st/2nd down, Spiller was dead last in designed hole rate per Sports Info Solutions, meaning he was looking to create more than any back. His chaotic rushing style and vision makes him a home-run threat rusher only, but he doesn’t have the long speed to cash in. In the pass game, Spiller is comfortable as a check-down option with some wheel and option route ability (29, 20, and 25 receptions each season), and he seeks out the blitz in pass protection. Overall, Spiller should start out in a committee but has a path to a 3-down workload.
Fit: Austin Ekeler will do Ekeler things, but there's room for a potential goal line role for Spiller in his first two seasons while Ekeler is under contract. Spiller's competition for handcuff duties is as weak as it gets, so this is a big-time win for Spiller. He just has to not be bad.
Model: 85th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Nelson Agholor
Profile: Thornton (6'2.5/184) was a 4-star recruit and 4-year contributor at Baylor, who led a top-5 Bears team in receiving yards by 375 in 2021. The 21.7-year-old is a very explosive deep threat (career 15.7 YPR) who must avoid press man coverage to be effective. Thornton had a well below-average 1.7 yards per route run versus man coverage in a conference not exactly known for their physicality. With that said, Thornton's role is easy to see. He'll be a rotational deep threat with 4.28 speed and an explosive 130-inch broad jump (87th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism). His 75th percentile college dominator and 65th percentile yards per team pass attempt are enough to leave the light on despite his concerning strength. Out of 501 drafted WRs in my database, Thornton's 23.0 BMI is the second-lowest only trailing J.J. Nelson.
Fit: Having Mac Jones signed for his entire rookie contract is a win, and this depth chart could reshuffle next offseason with DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and N'Keal Harry all either unsigned or having less than $1.5M in guaranteed money in 2023. If Thornton shows field-stretching ability as a rookie, he'll be a starter in 2023 and beyond.
Model: 51st percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Group of 5 Marvin Jones
Profile: Tolbert (6'1/194) was a 2-star recruit and 3-year contributor at South Alabama, who really broke out (82-1,474-12) as a redshirt junior in 2021. His 113 yards per game on passes beyond the line of scrimmage led all of college football. Tolbert's route tree is predicated on double moves and jump balls on the perimeter (69% out wide). He's a contested catch player who plays bigger than his size and has above-average ball tracking. Those traits led to an efficient 3.6 yards per route run versus man coverage. Tolbert only is a 44th percentile adjusted SPARQ athlete, however, with 4.49 speed and below-average agility. He struggled on in-breaking routes with a handful of drops due to inconsistent hand placement. Tolbert, unfortunately a 23-year-old prospect, will compete for X & Z receiver snaps in 3-WR sets in the NFL as a downfield threat (career 17.6 YPR).
Fit: The fit is pretty good, especially for his rookie season with Michael Gallup rehabbing a torn ACL. Tolbert just needs to beat out $1.2M man James Washington for outside duties. Long-term, CeeDee Lamb and Gallup are under contract through the 2024. Tolbert likely will be a distant No. 3 or No. 4 receiver for most of his Dallas tenure.
Model: 86th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
A 4-star recruit, Robinson played two seasons at Nebraska as an RB/WR hybrid before transferring to Kentucky in 2021 to play slot receiver (67% snaps). He averaged 102.6 yards per game (97th percentile adjusted production) and 3.4 yards per route run versus man coverage before declaring early. 34-of-104 receptions came on screens or jet sweeps as one of the more explosive (4.44 forty) schemed touch players in the country. His best “real” route is a slot fade against off coverage because he struggles to play through contact and has too many body catches/drops over the middle in traffic. Legitimately too tiny (5’8/175) for a full-time role in the NFL, Robinson is best suited for a rotational No. 3 or No. 4 role as a schemed touch changeup. His coach needs to have a tailored plan for him. Comp: Less explosive Jakeem Grant
Model: 74th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Profile: Watson (6’2/208) was a 2-star recruit and 3-year contributor at North Dakota State. He had a 32% yardage share as a redshirt senior, operating as a schemed touch and vertical threat No. 1 receiver. The Bisons’ 2-TE heavy, efficient passing offense gave Watson clear 1-on-1s on the perimeter, and Watson’s athleticism (94th percentile adjusted SPARQ) led to multiple big plays (18.6 yards per catch). His development, especially for an incoming 23-year-old rookie, is lacking. He plays smaller than his size, is sometimes late out of his breaks, and had lots of key drops. A bet on Watson is mostly a bet on athleticism.
Fit: If he's good, he'll be Aaron Rodgers' top target. It doesn't get much better than that, assuming Rodgers doesn't retire early despite signing a massive contract that keeps him around until 2026 on paper.
Model: 40th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Model: 64th percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Mohamed Sanu
Profile: The Purdue early declare was a 4-star recruit and Indiana Gatorade Player of the Year as a state champion basketball and football player. In college, Bell (6’1/212) lined up out wide on 83% of his snaps, primarily player X receiver as a physical contested catch player. He averaged 101 receiving yards per game over his career (88th percentile adjusted production) with 3.2 yards per route run versus man coverage in 2021. Both are rock solid. Bell is an 11th percentile athlete (4.65 forty and 7.14 three cone) and had a tough game against first-round CB Greg Newsome in 2020, however. His lack of burst may make him more of a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver in the NFL, but his production at a Power 5 school makes him a worthy late Day 2 selection, probably as a power slot.
Fit: Commonly comped to Jarvis Landry, it's easy to argue how this was a perfect fit for Bell. The offense likes physicality at receiver, Deshaun Watson will be his quarterback for his entire rookie contract, and Amari Cooper is on a year-by-year contract. He just has to beat out speedster Anthony Schwartz to start in the slot. I like Bell's odds.
Model: 87th percentile prospect among drafted TEs
Profile: His analytical profile is here.
Fit: Kyler Murray is probably getting a franchise-quarterback contract this offseason, but Zach Ertz's contract doesn't have an out until 2024. Who knows what the offense will look like then.
Model: 54th percentile prospect among drafted RBs
Comp: Zack Moss
Profile: Allgeier (5’11/224) was a 0-star recruit and 2-year starter in his junior and senior seasons at BYU (outside zone scheme). Playing behind a bulldozing offensive line against a Mickey Mouse strength of schedule, Allgeier eclipsed 1,800 total yards and 23 touchdowns (all rushing) in his final season. He averaged 4.2 yards after contact and forced 0.28 missed tackles per carry, the former being a very solid mark. Allgeier did so largely with power, not with wiggle (41st percentile three cone) and speed (4.60 forty). He has quality hands (28 receptions in 2021) for a bigger back, but his bread gets buttered on early downs. Allgeier is an early-down backup capable of operating as a bellcow back in a pinch. He was a 42nd percentile adjusted SPARQ athlete with sub-par balance because of his big frame.
Fit: Atlanta only will save $1.7M if they release Cordarrelle Patterson after Allgeier's rookie season. C-Patt will likely be around for Allgeier's first two seasons, and he'll have to out-play Damien Williams as a rookie to have a worthwhile 2023 projection. Who knows how good this offense will be for the next couple seasons, too.
Model: 82nd percentile prospect among drafted WRs
Comp: Brian Hartline
Profile: Metchie (5’11/195ish) was a 4-star recruit and 2-year starter at Alabama. He averaged 87.8 yards per game on 2.6 yards per route run versus man coverage in 2021, lining up across the formation but primarily out wide (69%). Metchie is a headsy player with good technique and hand usage, but he’s an average (maybe below-average) athlete even before his torn ACL. Against SEC corners, Metchie didn’t separate at a difference-making level or have play-making body control at the catch point, so his ceiling is capped. Overall, Metchie projects as a long-time pro as a No. 3 capable of playing at multiple spots. The caveat is clearing medicals examinations. Dr. David Chao is at least moderately concerned about Metchie missing an entire high school season because of an enlarged heart.
Fit: We'll see if Davis Mills is more than a 2022 tank job, but the depth chart in front of Metchie is pretty weak at receiver. Brandin Cooks' contract will keep him around for at least two seasons, and Nico Collins' is purely a Round 3 projection. If Metchie is good, he can be Cooks' sidekick in late 2022 and for all of 2023.
28. TE2 Isaiah Likely (ADP: 51st) - 76th percentile
29. TE3 Daniel Bellinger (ADP: 39th) - 70th percentile
Also an analytics sleeper, Bellinger is the only Giant TE under contract for 2023.
30. TE4 Greg Dulcich (ADP: 37th) - 77th percentile
I think he'll be the best UCLA skill player since MJD in 2006. Seam stretcher.
31. QB2 Desmond Ridder (ADP: 34th) - 65th percentile
Marcus Mariota competition with some rushing ability but worrisome accuracy.
32. WR17 Khalil Shakir (ADP: 31st) - 48th percentile prospect
Shakir (6’0/196) was a 4-star recruit and 3-year contributor at Boise State, ultimately averaging 111 total yards per game in his junior and senior seasons (64th percentile adjusted production). He was a versatile receiver, lining up in the slot on 67% of his senior snaps after playing out wide on 61% of his junior plays. Shakir is a tough receiver capable of seeing snaps in the backfield, in the screen game, and as a bunch-set blocker a la Robert Woods. He has more highlight reel grabs, more burst (4.44 forty and 124-inch broad), and better ball tracking than the traditional slot player, an all-around skillset that led to a solid 3.2 yards per route run versus man coverage. His lack of size, including bottom 1st percentile arms, is his biggest physical limitation, along with below-average elusiveness (7.28 three cone). He also needs to clean up his drops. Ultimately, Shakir is a low-ceiling No. 2 or No. 3 receiver that can be a vertical slot or rotational Z receiver. He has the character of someone who will hang in the league longer than expected. Comp: Group of 5 Sterling Shepard.
33. WR18 Kyle Philips (ADP: 51st) - 36th percentile
34. QB3 Malik Willis (ADP: 28th) - 60th percentile
35. RB10 Snoop Conner (ADP: 50th) - 35th percentile
Travis Etienne (lisfanc) and James Robinson (achilles) are coming back from very worrisome injuries, and this coaching staff has zero attachment to either of them. Conner's profile is underwhelming in general, but he has fantasy-ceiling size (222 pounds), was an SEC early-declare, and is attached to Trevor Lawrence long-term. He's a huge winner post-draft. I have 2022 best ball interest, too.
36. RB11 Hassan Haskins (ADP: 36th) - 33rd percentile
Haskins (6’2/228) was a 3-star recruit and one-year contributor at Michigan (gap scheme), finishing with 55th percentile adjusted production as a senior. His evaluation is easy. He'll run through a MFer's face. Haskins hit 27 bench press reps at the NFL Combine, and he had 10 more carries with 9+ defenders in the box than any other Power 5 back last year, which partially explains his forgettable 4.9 YPC. Haskins has enough athleticism to leap over defenders in open space, too, probably because he's a tone setter with a monster truck stick and power causing defenders to dive at his ankles. For a bigger back, Haskins has good enough hands (18 receptions) to catch a ball in the flats. His lateral ability keeps his ceiling low (worrisome 0.20 missed tackles per carry), but Haskins serves a purpose as a backup grinder. Comp: Alfred Blue.
37. Isiah Pacheco (ADP: 26th) - 2nd percentile
38. RB13 Tyrion Davis-Price (ADP: 27th) - 57th percentile
Davis-Price is a Trey Sermon eraser, so Davis-Price is an enemy of mine. San Francisco now has three rookie contract backs competing for touches to pair with the rushing value Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance provide.
39. RB14 Pierre Strong Jr. (ADP: 36th) - NA percentile
Strong (5’11/207) was a 23-year-old prospect from FCS South Dakota State. He has 86th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.37 forty), which gives him an outside zone projection at the next level. Strong was used in the wildcat on occasion and was comfortable on swing passes in the flats (22 receptions as a senior), so he has some versatility on non-short-yardage plays. But for an undersized back, Strong’s open-field elusiveness was sub-par, and he won’t run over defenders either, capping his upside to change of pace and special teams work in the NFL. He only handled more than 144 carries in one season at SDSU (240-1,673-18 last year). Comp: FCS Elijah Mitchell
40. TE3 Charlie Kolar (ADP: 65nd) - 77th percentile
An analytics sleeper scooped up by a TE-heavy Baltimore team.