10 predictions ahead of the Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl in 2025 ranging from the final score, Super Bowl MVP, longest reception, and more. These are simply the projections that I am personally playing.

All Underdog Fantasy users have a no sweat token to use for the big game. Details are here:

1. Jalen Hurts higher 213.5 pass yards

The flaws in Jalen Hurts' game have gone viral throughout January's media coverage of the team because he had two undeniably bad dropback games. But on the whole, Hurts is a productive passer and a real asset as a runner. That's even more true when he's playing indoors or when the game script puts him in situations where he has to dropback more than normal. Here are his splits in 16 career games in domes or retractable roof stadiums like the one in New Orleans for the Super Bowl:

Hurts also has splits with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Lane Johnson, and Dallas Goedert all healthy, too, which makes sense because those are star players. Well, they are all ready to go. On Underdog Fantasy, we can change the passing yard projection to increase or decrease the multiplier. This is one where I'll be dragging the projection up to 249.5 yards or even higher depending on the entry. He's paired nicely with the following projections:

2. Saquon Barkley lower 22.5 carries

The Chiefs allowed the 8th fewest carries in the regular season, while limiting the opposition to a league-low 9.7 drives per game. Like mentioned earlier, I anticipate the Chiefs to squat on the ball with underneath targets, and that has ripple effects for the Eagles. Beyond that, this game is expected to be close (1.5 spread) rather than their average of a 10-point win. If we only look at one-score games this year with Jalen Hurts at the helm, then Saquon Barkley has 22.5 carries per game despite them being victorious in 8-of-9 of them. 

3. DeVonta Smith higher 50.5 receiving yards

In 11 games with Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith has averaged 4.5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 0.42 touchdowns, and 5.5 targets, so we're right in line with the projection if things go as normal. But I don't think this will be the same game script Smith has played in for most of this year. The Eagles may have to pass more now that they are expected to be in a close game. Smith's averages in games within 14 points are 5.8 catches for 68 yards, compared to just 3.8 catches for 54 yards in the 4 Eagles wins by more than 14 points.

Among the pass catchers, I like Smith's matchup the best. He'll largely avoid Chiefs CB1 Trent McDuffie because Smith plays 53% of his snaps in the slot. That's where Chamarri Conner plays, and he's allowed the most yards per coverage snap among their starters in the secondary. Conner is a physical player with the opposite frame as Smith, who is just faster and longer than Conner is.

4. Xavier Worthy lower 21.5 longest reception

He’s improved every month and is now playing on 81% of Chiefs' dropbacks, while playing outside receiver on more than half of his snaps. But Xavier Worthy and Patrick Mahomes are still establishing chemistry, particularly against zone. Over his last 6 games when he’s become a near full-time player, Worthy's yards per route drops to 1.5 against zone coverages on a crazy-low 2.4 average depth of target. In the postseason, he's only had a 14% target rate against zone, even with him being the Chiefs’ primary screen player (11-of-19 screens). Assuming Eagles DC Vic Fangio calls a zone-based defense without blitzing, this will be a big “Rally and Tackle” outing for the defense against a lot of underneath looks. On throws under 10 air yards, the Eagles are 1st in EPA allowed (-0.02) and success rate (47%) ... Not to mention, Worthy only has 5 receptions of 22+ yards this season.

5. JuJu Smith-Schuster higher 1.5 receptions

Over his last 6 games, the veteran slot receiver has a 12% target share on zone snaps. Not impressive, but it is higher than his man-coverage splits, which is a good thing for this likely zone-based matchup against two-high GOAT Vic Fangio. Last week, JuJu Smith-Schuster played 61% of the Chiefs' dropbacks, which we're projecting for 42 in this game. That's a general projection of 25 routes leading to 3.0 targets and 2.1 receptions. Projection stud Mike Clay at ESPN agrees:

6. Samaje Perine higher 7.5 receiving yards

Since Week 13 when Isiah Pacheco returned, the Chiefs have deployed a 3-way committee splitting Pacheco and Kareem Hunt on running downs with Samaje Perine chipping in on obvious passing downs. Perine has played 15-of-18 2-minute drill snaps over that span for example, and he could play more than normal if the Chiefs are trailing in the 4th quarter for the same reasons. We haven't seen the Chiefs lose over this 7-game streak with Patrick Mahomes, and Perine still has receiving totals of 17, 0, 20, 50, 23, 16, and 15 for an average of 20.1 and a median of 17. If the Eagles stay in two-high shells with zone coverage underneath like expected, that plays into check downs to RBs.

7. Reed Blankenship higher 6.5 tackles + assists

The Chiefs are going to pass like crazy. Patrick Mahomes’ is hot now that his weapons are improved and left tackle is solved. Plus his ground game is cooked with replacement-level RB talent. That’s all good news for this strong safety. Reed Blankenship has the most tackles against WRs and TEs, as the safety who is more likely to rotate down and defend shallow over-the-middle passes (see: Travis Kelce). The Chiefs are also good enough on offense to keep Blankenship on the field for more snaps than usual after Philly faced the fewest snaps in the regular season. The Chiefs had the 7th most plays and 6th most completions, while not threatening to score quickly. They were 26th in explosive pass rate (12%) on the No. 31 deep target rate (8.4%). Long story short, there will be more tackles over the middle available than usual. Blankenship has made 11, 6, and 7 combined tackles this postseason despite facing more run-based units.

8. George Karlaftis lower 0.5 sacks

He’s got a hell of a motor and has been a great pick for the Chiefs, but George Karlaftis lines up against the right side of the OL on 85% of his snaps. That’s where Hall Of Fame RT Lane Johnson is. Johnson has a 2% pressure rate allowed this year and only 22% of pressures that Jalen Hurts faced this year turned into sacks. 

9. Super Bowl MVP: Jalen Hurts (+380)

This is not available on Underdog.

Saquon Barkley can obviously take it home if the Eagles win, but since 2001, quarterbacks have won 15-of-23 Super Bowl MVPs and a running back hasn’t won. It’s actually been a volume-hog receiver like Cooper Kupp or Julian Edelman who have won it 5 times, with the remaining 3 MVPs on defense in very low-scoring games, which we aren’t expecting here. So how does Jalen Hurts overtake Saquon (+150) in MVP votes?

In addition to winning the game, Hurts really needs to avoid the long Saquon TD because Hurts soaks up most of the shorter scores with either his arm (1.2 passing TDs per game) or goal line scores. Saquon’s 6 rushing scores in the red zone don’t touch Hurts’ 14. For as ridiculous as Saquon has been, it’s more likely that he doesn’t have a 20+ yard score in the Super Bowl than that he does pull it off again. Hurts can also win it by completing the explosive passes that have come and gone throughout the year (16th in explosive pass rate) if these 50/50 balls to his elite receivers go the right way. Remember, every big play through the air reduces Saquon's odds of hitting a big one. I believe their odds to win the MVP should be nearly identical rather than clearly leaning Saquon's way.

10. Eagles Over 23.5 Points (-115)

This is not available on Underdog.

Recency bias on the Eagles’ pass game has dominated media airways, but the long-term sample of it paints a better picture, especially after accounting for the injuries that took place in 2024 that are no longer a worry. Since 2022 when Philly last appeared in the Super Bowl, the Eagles are 7th in passing EPA per dropback (+0.13). This year, Jalen Hurts’ EPA per play is +0.17. The media just freaked out when he had +0.00 EPA per play in the first two NFL Playoff games. I’d rather zoom out.

Hurts’ production is very much tied to his elite supporting cast because he has his processing warts, but that also means we should only look at his stats with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the field. In those games, his EPA per dropback climbs to +0.19, which is exactly what the Bengals’ offense was this season. When that passing offense is paired with the Eagles’ No. 1 rushing EPA offense (+0.08), then we’re looking at a loaded unit playing in the confines of a dome.

The concerns about the blitz are somewhat warranted but may be overblown, too. The Eagles’ EPA per dropback goes from +0.14 without a blitz to +0.07 with a blitz, and Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo deserves a Hall of Fame bust for his blitz package in the playoffs. I’d be more nervous without a week of game planning for it or if he hadn’t been so productive against Spags’ blitzes historically. 

... And if you're forcing me into a final score prediction, the most likely outcome to me is Eagles 27, Chiefs 24. Enjoy the game, good luck on your sweats, and join us live on YouTube for tons more this offseason.