20 Biggest Fallers In Best Ball Mania IV Since June 1st

Aug 19th 2023

Hayden Winks

This column is a best ball offseason recap of which types of players moved in average draft position once ADPs settled after the 2023 NFL Draft. I'm comparing June 1st to August 19th ADP, using percent change in stock. The risers version of this column is here.

1. RB Jonathan Taylor (14 to 26 ADP)

It took awhile for the market to adjust to Taylor having a rookie QB who will not be throwing the ball to him very often and stealing some goal-line work, which may be limited in general. Then we learned that he's big mad over his contract and that his ankle surgery is still lingering. At this point, he's a full fade of mine unless he goes Round 4. I can see him not playing through injuries this year if he stays with the Colts. My stance will change if he's traded. ... I had him ranked 24th overall on May 28th. Win (1-0).

2. RB Breece Hall (30 to 43 ADP)

I can say I was playing for upside and that this was a bad runout. The reality is I messed this one up by ignoring the historical data on ACL tears and the Jets' warning signs during the draft cycle. They were in the mix for Jahmyr Gibbs reportedly. They drafted a guy later on. They had interest in other free agents. In theory, Hall could be a monster still. The signs with their actions are they want him to slow roll this thing throughout the regular season. Dalvin Cook getting at least $6M (from Aaron Rodgers) is not a great sign. ... I had him ranked 22nd overall on May 28th. Major L (1-1).

3. WR Kadarius Toney (71 to 100 ADP)

Another one that can be typecasted as "Oh, I was just playing for ceiling". The reality is this was easy to see. Toney has been banged up his entire college and NFL career. He's also only flashed every-down ability when healthy, not actually held an every-down role for long stretches. The Chiefs remain very optimistic on Toney, who may or may not be ready For Week 1. I certainly like buying the dip. I regret not fading him earlier. ... I had him ranked 71st overall on May 28th. Tie (1-1-1).

4. WR Davante Adams (12 to 16 ADP)

A total baller still, Adams will be swapping out his unsustainable deep targets and TDs for more target volume underneath with Jimmy Garoppolo. The downside risk is him finally taking a step back on the field or the Raiders completely hitting rock bottom. That's why he's not a layup 1st rounder right now. ... I had him ranked 13th overall on May 28th. Tie (1-1-2).

5. WR Michael Pittman (55 to 74 ADP)

The Anthony Richardson selection was a bad thing for Pittman, who is pretty damn good but in a tough spot for fantasy. I was slightly behind him here and then put on the full fade in my early July rankings after seeing more research from JJ Zacharison and Rich Hribar. Pittman has better odds of being a FLEX than a reliable WR3 this year, even as a Richardson supporter. ... I had him ranked 58th overall on May 28th. Slight win (2-1-2).

6. WR Treylon Burks (72 to 92)

The Titans' lack of depth at WR caused some steam early in the offseason, but that went away when DeAndre Hopkins was signed to a real contract. Burks' mid-August injury hurts his early-season projection a tad, too. At discounted prices, I'm interested. He had a lot of learning to do as a rookie after moving from the gadget/slot to legit X receiver, but there's a ceiling to chase once he develops. ... I had him ranked 73rd overall on May 28th. Tie (2-1-3).

7. RB Dalvin Cook (72 to 92 ADP)

Early this offseason, it was predictable that Cook would be released or be forced into a very heavy paycut. I was out early because the lead back for the Vikings was better than what was available after free agency. Then I was in on him once his ADP plummeted, hoping he'd land a starting job in Miami or elsewhere. The Jets are an interesting spot. The money is legit. The offense is legit. The Breece Hall threat is also legit. There's a ceiling to chase if Hall is cooked or if Aaron Rodgers simply loves Cook. He also could fall off late in the season. Ultimately, I'm buying in the 90s right now. ... I had him ranked 76th overall on May 28th. Tie (2-1-4).

8. WR Wan'Dale Robinson (171 to 215 ADP)

Slot-only players without NFL production coming off a torn ACL with multiple slot WR additions. What were people thinking here? ... I had him ranked 232nd overall on May 28th. Win (3-1-4).

9. RB Kendre Miller (134 to 167 ADP)

The TCU product has an intriguing sleeper profile, but the landing spot (short and long term) is brutal. Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams signed multi-year deals with heavy money in 2024, and the coaching staff is as conservative as it gets, too. Miller's lingering knee injury has made it difficult to carve out a role. I wish he was elsewhere. For now, I sadly fade. ... I had him ranked 151st overall on May 28th. Win (4-1-4).

10. RB Miles Sanders (56 to 69 ADP)

I'm going down with the ship here and remain steadfast on being high on Sanders, who signed the biggest free agent RB deal of the offseason. The coaching staff has hinted at a major workload, which wouldn't be surprising with a polished, distributing rookie QB. Sanders' mid-August groin injury is my biggest fear. The volume will be there, and the rug very rarely gets pulled in year 1 of a real 3-year deal. ... I had him ranked 49th overall on May 28th. Major L (4-2-4).

11. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (28 to 34 ADP)

I'm holding the line here as a big believer in the upgrade from OC Matt Patricia to Bill O'Brien. The Ezekiel Elliott signing adds uncertainty at the goal line (bad), but I believe the addition is more of a reflection of the Patriots' poor RB depth. Stevenson has the size and receiving skills to be an upside RB1. ... I had him ranked 21st overall on May 28th. Major L (4-3-4).

12. WR Josh Downs (175 to 213 ADP)

He was a fun slot prospect, but that was before he landed with Anthony Richardson. He's still competing with Isaiah McKenzie for a starting spot. ... I had him ranked 233rd overall on May 28th. Win (5-3-4).

13. RB Chase Brown (175 to 213 ADP)

The spreadsheet bros love him, but I never saw it on tape, which is why he went on Day 3. Brown hasn't had buzz in training camp, even with Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams not offering a whole lot behind Joe Mixon. The early ADP probably was a reflection of many mis-categorizing Mixon's contract and court cases, too. I mix in Williams in Round 18 on occasion, while Brown is making his case to be active on special teams. ... I had him ranked 204th overall on May 28th. Win (6-3-4).

14. WR DeAndre Hopkins (39 to 48 ADP)

His release wasn't a surprise for those looking at contracts, but the new landing spot is more-or-less the same. He'll be the favorite for targets in a mediocre offense. Before he only visited with the Titans and Patriots, I had upside hopes that he'd wind up in Kansas City. The interest wasn't reciprocated. ... I had him ranked 37th overall on May 28th. Loss (6-4-4).

15. RB Isiah Pacheco (76 to 90 ADP)

This one is funny to me. I think Pacheco is overrated as a real life player because his vision is a mess and he's not trusted on passing downs, yet I'm higher on him in fantasy because of the offense. His ADP has slowly dropped as his hand and shoulder surgeries have kept him out of full-contract drills in training camp. The team remains confident he'll be the starter in Week 1. I wonder if his ADP rebounds late. ... I had him ranked 64th overall on May 28th. Loss (6-5-4).

16. WR Jonathan Mingo (128 to 151 ADP)

There was a lot of post-draft hype after the desperate Panthers drafted him in Round 2, earlier than many expected. Josh and I loved Mingo's potential as a size/speed outside receiver. The Panthers agree. We probably got too excited for his rookie year potential, though he started in 3-WR sets from the get go. I could see a late-season push. ... I had him ranked 117th overall on May 28th. Major L (6-6-4).

17. RB J.K. Dobbins (57 to 67 ADP)

There is a lot of movement for Dobbins. His very serious multi-ligament knee injury never looked right last year. He started out on the PUP list early in training camp, before holding out for contract reasons. It was one of the worst holdouts possible given his lack of NFL production. The timing of the holdout worked against him learning the very new Todd Monken offense. ... I had him ranked 80th overall on May 28th. Win (7-6-4).

18. WR Jalin Hyatt (145 to 170 ADP)

He fell to Round 3 because his college profile was very unique, where he was frequently given free releases off the line of scrimmage. His on-field speed is rare, however. Hyatt is unlikely to be a full-time player early on, but he can push for 3-WR sets from the slot or at Z. His ADP belongs in the dart-throw range as it sits currently. ... I had him ranked 163rd overall on May 28th. Win (8-6-4).

19. TE Kyle Pitts (64 to 76 ADP)

Pitts' ADP has steadily dropped the more we learned about his lingering knee injury, one that required surgery. Now that he's practicing and suiting up in preseason, Pitts should stop sliding. The QB inaccuracy and Arthur Smith's rotation at TE are the bigger issues at this point. This lowered ADP is fair to me. ... I had him ranked 61st overall on May 28th. Tie (8-7-4).

20. QB Trey Lance (185 to 215 ADP)

This is a reminder to just keep up to date on the beat reporters. After middling this situation early in the summer, it was clear to me that the 49ers really believed in Brock Purdy and that his surgery was going well. Once Purdy was throwing, I moved Lance to 251st in my July rankings. After watching Preseason Week 1, I project Sam Darnold to be the QB2 in San Francisco. ... I had him ranked 179th overall on May 28th. Tie (8-7-5).


Players who had surgery appear up-and-down this list. Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Breece Hall (ACL), Kadarius Toney (knee), Dalvin Cook (shoulder) Wan'Dale Robinson (ACL), Kendre Miller (knee), Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), J.K. Dobbins (ACL sorta), and Kyle Pitts (knee) have dealt with some lingering ailments, while Treylon Burks (knee) and Miles Sanders (groin) have picked up a new injury during camp.

Like I mentioned in the risers column, there were 5 rookies on the fallers list compared to just 3 rookies on the risers list. Breakout age and age cliffs have never been priced in more than today. Don't double count age in drafts.

Davante Adams and Michael Pittman FUD picked up steam because of QB play, but I'm not sure there's a major thing to learn from them. Same thing with Trey Lance.