This page will be updated after preseason games and when the biggest training camp news hits the timeline. The latest ranking update was August 20th. Please subscribe over on YouTube and follow me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). I'll have initial feedback on everything over there. Thanks for knowing how to read still in 2025!

2025 Fantasy Football Rankings

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2025 Cut Down Day Notes

• DeMeco Ryans offered no real update on Joe Mixon (foot), but the wording about his RB room caught my eye. He said, "Very deep running back room. Lot of players that can provide a ton of depth and guys who can get us through the season." That can only be read as very bad for Mixon, who went to a foot specialist and received "shots" per Aaron Wilson. The DMs I get about the situation point to a potential season-ending injury for what it's worth, and the more details that emerge, the more closely they line up to those same DMs. At this point, he can only be priced like a handcuff that won't give us anything for months at a time with the hope of having some fill-in weeks later on. His ADP sits much higher than that at the moment, so he is a fade heading into the biggest draft weekend. So who to draft now? Nick Chubb is the likely starter in Week 1, but I think he's bad and likely to get injured himself. I have more interest in Dameon Pierce, who gets the power-based rushing scheme that he was familiar with as a younger back. He's a better athlete than Chubb at this point, and he has a chance to be a part of the Texans for the next couple years. He's my favorite last-round pick right now. Both backs are early-down guys, who will be spelled by either 4th-round rookie Woody Marks or veteran Dare Ogunbowale. It's not a fantasy friendly role, but just noting for the likely event of a drawn-out committee. Long story short, I'm in on Dameon Pierce. What can go wrong?

2025 Preseason Week 3 Notes

• The Raiders kept up their bit on offense. On all 10 Geno Smith dropbacks, they were in 11-personnel, meaning 3 WRs and 1 TE. Brock Bowers started the game, but the order of snaps then went Michael Mayer, Bowers, Mayer, Mayer, Mayer, Bowers. Like I said last week, I think there's a middle ground that emerges here. The Raiders will use 2-TE sets more in the regular season. Every team does. Chip Kelly himself has. Bowers will obviously be viewed as a a wide receiver in those looks, often lining up in the slot or out wide. That's good. That said, I do think Mayer's size (6'4"/256 vs. Bowers at 6'4"/235) and run-blocking skills could mean he plays 25% or so of the 11-personnel snaps this year, which means Bowers would come off the field in more situations than he did last year. Is that guaranteed? Not even close. Is it possible? Yes. I moved Bowers to 23rd overall and would take Trey McBride (who is also awesome at football) just ahead of him. If you choose to fully ignore this, I totally get that.

• Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said Najee Harris is hopefully ready for Week 1 and is making progress. That has not meant being cleared for contact, and he's just started jogging on the sidelines of camp. Many Chargers beat reporters are projecting Harris to remain on the NFI list, which would mean out for the first 4 games. It's been Hassan Haskins as the RB2 behind Omarion Hampton for now.

• Dolphins 7th-round RB Ollie Gordon had a solid outing on the ground with De'Von Achane (calf) and Jaylen Wright not suiting up. Gordon is bigger than both and is a lock to make the final team. The question is if he sprinkles in for the goal line and is the actual RB2 ahead of Wright, who struggled as a rookie especially catching the ball and running with power. There shouldn't be much of a difference in their ADPs. I didn't like either of their college tapes to be honest.

• Kyle Shanahan said Jauan Jennings has healed and should be ready for Week 1, noting that calf injuries can be tricky. The 49ers have given out contracts the week of the opener before. I anticipate a little bonus coming for him after shredding it in 2024.

• Kyle Shanahan said that Brian Robinson is the 49ers "two back" and that they've liked what he's offered for years. He's essentially in the Jordan Mason role now, with Isaac Guerendo as the pass-catching RB3 in the event of Christian McCaffrey missing time. Guerendo is playing through a shoulder injury and it looked like he had a setback with it while on punt coverage. I've moved Robinson into the original Guerendo range at 138th overall (RB46). Guerendo, 193rd (RB66).

• I'm assuming you saw the Matthew Golden catch. Whew.

• The Texans rested Nick Chubb, so it was Dameon Pierce as the starter after he missed some time with a quad injury. He looked explosive and had a nice blitz pickup. His decision making was mostly good, too. Pierce and Chubb have been splitting time with the 1st-team offense with Joe Mixon (foot) out. If Mixon is on the NFI list at the start of the year, he'll miss the first 4 weeks at least. That's looking more and more likely. One of Pierce or Chubb will be fantasy relevant early on. I think Pierce is better, now that we're getting more tight zone and gap runs under a new play-caller. 4th-round rookie Woody Marks scored a touchdown with the backups after playing behind core special-teamer Dare Ogunbowale.

• Browns 4th-round rookie Dylan Sampson started over Jerome Ford after sitting out last week with the starters. That's a very good sign. He also pin-balled himself off multiple defenders after catching a pass for a first down. He was one of my favorite prospects in the draft and he's now in the flex range while Quinshon Judkins remains away from the team.

• Browns 3rd-round rookie Harold Fannin Jr. played 8 of the first 12 snaps before starter David Njoku left for the game. Fannin caught a TD while lined up out wide. The entire training camp has been positive for the young playmaker, and the Browns staff is in love with him. Fannin needs to add bulk to be a realistic in-line option, but he's also the same size as Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta if the Browns are okay with the run-game sacrifice if Fannin brings enough as a receiver. This is key because Njoku is in the final year of his deal and is a trade candidate as the deadline approaches. Fannin was one of my favorites in the draft.

• Shedeur Sanders was horrific in the 2nd half. He took 5 sacks compared to 3 completions. It was the same problems he had in college when he'd drift back into pressure and make the OT play worse than it is. Sanders made things worse by being frustrated at the coaching staff when Tyler Huntley played the final 2 minutes of the game as planned. Anyone defending Sanders here is simply way off base and showing their bias. Hello, Josina Anderson. It's reached the point that Sanders being released can't be ruled out. Almost every team for the past 10 seasons has only kept 3 QBs. Could the Browns be the outlier? Possibly. But if there are only 3 being kept, then Sanders has made his case to be the one who is released. Dillon Gabriel played better and was drafted earlier.

• Spencer Rattler started ahead of 2nd-rounder Tyler Shough. It'd be a surprise if Rattler wasn't the Week 1 starter for the Saints. Shough did have a nice rushing score and had another rushing first down, but he did not run away with the job this camp.

• Just like last week, the Broncos used Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims in 2-WR sets with Troy Franklin as the slot receiver. As usual, Sutton was a baller. As usual, Mims wasn't targeted on his "normal" receiver routes. That's 0 targets on 22 routes as an outside receiver this preseason. The fact that Mims is out there is a win, but we'll see if they continue with this experiment. 3rd-round rookie Pat Bryant was buried in the pecking order.

• The Broncos rested J.K. Dobbins while the rest of the starters played. Without him, 2nd-round rookie RB R.J. Harvey started and played 10-of-19 snaps, with Tyler Badie playing on the passing downs as Jaleel McLaughlin was out as an expecting father. (Have some kids, folks!!! Good for the soul.) Harvey was bottled up on his runs, many of which were pointed to the perimeter. There was one very clear miss on an inside zone, too. It's unclear how the Broncos will split touches once the season kicks off, but it does look like Dobbins and Harvey as the two primary options based on the depth chart. I think Dobbins has much better feel at the moment. Expect Audric Estime to be released.

  • By the way, I made a little diagram with CGPT on what the RB assignments are on the most common run plays and what they are reading. Maybe that's helpful for you guys as you watch the games yourselves.

    

• The Commanders rested starters, including Austin Ekeler. Jacory Croskey-Merritt aka Bill also didn't play, but he was in a non-contact jersey two days ago with a shoulder injury. I think it was more injury related than him being treated as a starter, though it's possible that he was treated as one. Either way, Chris Rodriguez suited up and had some nice runs. The most likely scenario remains a 3-way committee with Deebo Samuel and Jayden Daniels stealing value away.

• The Bears played Caleb Williams for 27 snaps, and it wasn't great. Unlike last week, Caleb didn't scan the field well, but his athleticism and arm talent are still evident. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore were full-time players, while Olamide Zaccheaus was the starting slot WR and played 19 snaps. 2nd-round rookie Luther Burden played just one snap with Caleb. The Bears will be deciding between a slot receiver and a second tight end. Cole Kmet started and played 16 snaps, while 1st-round rookie Colston Loveland played 19 snaps. They were together for 8 snaps, which is 30% 2-TE sets for those doing some #math. I thought Loveland had multiple good reps as a run blocker. D'Andre Swift played 19 of the first 20 snaps, but the caveat is Roschon Johnson and Kyle Monongai were out with injuries. Swift's best rep was a hurdle in the flats.

• Patrick Mahomes was unbelievable on his three drives. Yes, that means the deep ball was back. As a reminder, his WR1, WR3, RB1, and LT missed time last year. The offense has more depth and real upside at left tackle, which I take as evidence of more time to throw downfield. I predicted another Mahomes MVP season this year and have made the Chiefs targets of mine. Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice each played 18-of-20 snaps. Isiah Pacheco rotated drives with Kareem Hunt. He looked fast, just like he did before his broken leg. Of note, 7th-round rookie Brashard Smith leapfrogged Elijah Mitchell in the preseason depth chart. Smith converted on an angle route out of the backfield but dropped a wheel route. It looks like Pacheco, Hunt, and Smith as the top-3 RBs with Carson Steele as the fullback.

• The Cowboys rested Javonte Williams with the other starters. Miles Sanders (shoulder) didn't play but he's been mixing in with the Cowboys starters in practice. 5th-round rookie Jaydon Blue played behind Deuce Vaughn here and then left with an ankle injury that they are claiming is minor but didn't look great on television. Before leaving, Blue had a nice cutback behind pullers and then finished strong on goal line carry. 7th-round bruising rookie Phil Mafah only played in the 4th quarter and is looking like a cut, then practice squad stash candidate. I expect a full-blown committee with a fullback and receiver in the mix for rushing touches as well.

• The Titans were in 2-TE sets on 8-of-14 snaps with Cam Ward, which is a lot. That let Chig Okonkwo play on 12-of-14 snaps with the 1st-team offense. Calvin Ridley didn't play, but we did only see Tyler Lockett in the slot in this dress rehearsal. That means veteran Van Jefferson and Elic Ayomanor are battling for that No. 2 WR spot. That'll probably be Jefferson in September and Ayomanor in December. The top two targets easily could be Ridley and Okonkwo.

• 2nd-round TE Mason Taylor rested with the Jets starters. Great sign.

• The Panthers rested starters, including trade candidate Adam Thielen. That forced WR Jalen Coker to play and leave early as the current WR4. We'll see if Thielen gets moved, as that will ultimately decide if Coker is going to play early on this season.

• The Steelers rested Aaron Rodgers, their top 3 WRs (Metcalf, Austin, Skowronek), and Jonnu Smith, but the entire RB room was forced to play. That suggests the depth chart is up for grabs. Jaylen Warren played 7-of-11 snaps on the first two drives, with Kenny Gainwell playing the other four. Warren fumbled and fell down a couple times. It wasn't his best, thought he had a great blitz pickup as usual. 3rd-round RB Kaleb Johnson remained the RB3 in the pecking order. Johnson made good decisions and had a few zone cutback conversions, plus caught a ball in the flats. He's looked good as a rusher throughout preseason. Expect a committee in Pittsburgh.

• Cam Skattebo played the first 10 snaps with the starters resting, and he didn't have much action with Dart driving the team down the field as a passer. There's nothing to go off for the rookie RB, other than he's healthy after missing time with a hamstring early. He'll compete with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary throughout the year. I expect Skattebo to end up with the most goal-line touchdowns, even if Tracy starts in September.

• Jaxson Dart was excellent, and it looked a lot different than it did in Preseason Week 2 when it was a dink-and-dunk offense. Dart made multiple high-end downfield throws, many of them were dropped. His Cover 3 corner route while being hit stood out in particular. He also looked mobile and even drew a "spy" against a Cover 1 look. He's checked every box imaginable this preseason, and his upside in terms of arm talent, mobility, and even poise should have Giants fans really excited. The pressure is on for Russell Wilson. Dart looks Week 1 capable if coach Brian Daboll can't resist. The NFL Draft community that ranked Dart as their 49th overall prospect should feel queasy so far. Of course, far too early to draw final conclusions.

• With Brian Robinson officially out, the Commanders are headed for a 3-back committee in my estimation. Austin Ekeler has the receiving work on lock, and he did score goal-line touchdowns himself last year with Robinson away. Chris Rodriguez is the heaviest in the group and could mix in at the goal-line and in closing situations. But Bill Croskey-Merritt is the flashiest kid on the block. He's fastest and the biggest mystery box. He deserves to be drafted first in half PPR, but I don't want to set unrealistic expectations. Jayden Daniels isn't a RB-target guy, plus he steals goal line rushing touchdowns himself. The Commanders will use Deebo Samuel in RB ways at times, too. It'd be an upset if Bill was a top-25 fantasy RB, and I'm nervous that the bit is going to go too far. At the same time, the bit is actually funny and if he does go off this year, then you'll have a ton of fun. That's undoubtably the point of this stupid game, so do your thing.

• Joe Mixon is "not considered a lock to be ready for the season-opener", per long-time Texans reporter Aaron Wilson. He's still rehabbing a complicated foot-ankle injury. The details are vague, but this could be a situation where he's trying to rehab an injury that could need surgery in the future. The fact that he was placed on NFI instead of PUP means this happened away from the facitlity and possibly not related to football training. The Texans are being weird, and Mixon isn't on the side field with trainers right now. It's unreasonable to expect Mixon to pop out of nowhere and be in NFL shape at this point, and it's looking ever-more likely that he'll start the season on IR (out 4 games). As each day passes, the odds that this is a long-term injury increase. He can't be drafted inside the top-100 and should be viewed in the pure handcuff range at this point. It'll be an early-down battle between Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce, and then a separate battle on passing downs between Dare Ogunbowale and Woody Marks. All four will be on the team until/if Mixon can return.

• Sean Payton still runs the Saints. He somehow conned his old pal Mickey into sending not just a 4th-rounder but also a 7th-rounder for DeVaughn Vele, who was just drafted with a 7th-round pick 16 months ago. Vele offers size to New Orleans, so the fit does make sense. It's really just the price. Vele remains unplayable in fantasy for as long as the top two receivers (and Brandin Cooks) are available. It's a more interesting trade for the Broncos, as 3rd-round rookie Pat Bryant (one of my pre-draft favorites) now has a path to snaps. Bryant is mostly an outisde receiver, and Vele primarily played in the slot, but the long-term vision of the room will likely be Courtland Sutton (X), Bryant and Marvin Mims (Z), and Troy Franklin with Mims in the slot. Let the best men win. I envision Mims to get the first crack at a majority of the snaps, but he was bad on the outside last year. Bryant is best ball draftable again, while Mims can still be drafted in the 110s in redraft and best ball formats. Tangentially, Evan Engram is also a small winner here, as he offers "big slot" skills that the team will be looking to replace without Vele around.

• 4th-round rookie RB Cam Skattebo (hamstring) is back at practice. There's enough time in camp and before the season to get back to competing with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary. He has the skillset that typically leads to fantasy upside. He's the biggest back on the team (goal line) and was in the 99th percentile with receiving production in college. Tracy was notably taken out for Singletary after a failed goal line carry last week. I can see Skattebo mixing in there earlier rather than later. I'd rather have Skattebo for the entire course of the season.

• Daniel Jones was named the starter, and not only that, coach Shane Steichen said this was for the season and they are giving him a long leash. That speaks volumes. Steichen said DJ runs the operation smoother, which I interpret as just being more consistent at running the Steichen playbook. That included a large sum of underneath passes with Gardner Minshew in 2023, and that has also been the DJ playbook. In particular, Steichen shouted out DJ's 2022 season, a year in which he finished last in deep-target rate. Expect a heavy dosage of underneath passes this year. That fits the interior OL issues. It also fits the skill talent they have. Michael Pittman had 12 more RPO targets than any other receiver back in 2023, and Josh Downs has ascended as a slot menace since. They also added an underneath weapon in Tyler Warren. It's unclear how targets will be divvied up between them, but the collective targets between them are going to be substantial. Taking shots on any of them is wise. That said, the Colts have a red zone hammer at RB and this offense will be average at best. ... As for Anthony Richardson, he is just not simply not ready to win games in a must-win year for this coaching staff, and for AR to actually get better, he needs to play. This will end in a divorce, and it's not a guarantee that we even see him this year. The Steichen comments were that damning. He's really not that far apart from the Trey Lance outcome at this point.

• The Falcons OL was good last year, but they lost their C Drew Dalman in free agency and then had RT Kaleb McGary go down with an injury in camp. Their backup situation, especially at OT, is pretty bad, and the right side is Michael Penix's blindside. I think OL analysis is generally underappreciated, so if there is a non-Falcon that you love when you're on the clock, I do think it's okay to break true ties away from them. This is also not reason to fully panic either.

2025 Preseason Week 2 Notes

• Brian Robinson Jr. is reportedly being shopped by the Commanders ahead of their preseason Week 2 game. This echoed Commanders reporter Ben Standig's prediction that B-Rob could not be on the opening roster. We'll see if there's any trade value for a contract-expiring player who hasn't stayed healthy throughout his rookie contract, but this is all a positive sign that 7th-round rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt is making real noise. He's been mixing in with the starters in camp and has looked the part. He's not like the normal 7th-round rookie either. He dropped in the draft because he wasn't eligible to play as a senior, nor eligible for the NFL Combine due to a ridiculous jersey-related eligibility issue with the NCAA. "Bill" had pre-draft fans nonetheless. There's no stopping JCM from climbing into the Bhayshul Tuten and Jaydon Blue range (aka inside the top-150 of Underdog Fantasy drafts). It's a steep climb after being an undrafted player in late July, but there is a drumbeat right now. There are only so many destinations that'd keep B-Rob as a top-100 pick if moved. Maybe the Cowboys. He deserves a correction, even if they can't find a dance partner.

  • Update: B-Rob isn't suiting up for the preseason Week 2 game, which heavily increases his odds of being traded for. The top contenders would be the Dolphins and Bears, who are dealing with RB injuries and don't have an established power back, but even then, we're talking about a late-round selection. Either spot pushes him down to the 150 fringe, so a big fall is coming no matter what. It sounds like Bill Croskey-Merritt is the leader for the early-down role with Chris Rodriguez as the RB3. Austin Ekeler will play passing downs and Deebo Samuel figures to steal some touches, too. I've moved Croskey-Merritt to 118th overall in the Rhamondre Stevenson and Braelon Allen range. Keep in mind that the Commanders' RB group combined for the 3rd-most expected touchdowns last year. If there's one back to absorb that, then there is real half PPR upside here. Unfortunately, Chris Rodriguez is in the mix and even started the Preseason Week 2.

• The Chargers hits keep coming. Quentin Johnston left with a concussion from a helmet-to-helmet hit when Justin Herbert left the ball too over the middle. He was in line to be a 2-WR set starter, but his Week 1 availability could be in question depending on his recovery. The next to join the rotation was 5th-round rookie KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who was thrown multiple jump ball fades. He looks the part and has 4.37 speed at least. Tre' Harris had a very productive night as the WR5. Most of his receptions were simple routes against off coverage and I still think he lacks meaningful athleticism, but Harris made one of the best catches of the weekend near the sideline on a great ball from likely QB2 Trey Lance. It's likely that Johnston, Lambert-Smith, and Harris are rotating throughout 2025. For what it's worth, Harris is lining up at Z most often, while QJ and KLS are more X receivers.

• The Saints offense looked different with coach Kellen Moore, and this should smooth out the variance of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed's profile. They've been downfield WRs only throughout their career, but they each caught two underneath passes in their first half with my far uglier doppelganger calling plays. For reference, Olave and Shaheed had 8 total underneath receptions last season. Heck, Olave even had a screen called for him. As long as they stay healthy, they should be averaging more receptions per game. I believe Shaheed has high-end yards after catch ability in particular. He's a target of mine, even with the QB questions.

• Colston Loveland was out there for 9-of-14 snaps with the starters, losing 5 snaps to Cole Kmet in 3-WR sets while playing on 4 of them himself. Loveland was schemed up a touch right away, caught a pass over the middle against zone, and then lined up as the backside route runner in a 3x1 formation. The 10th-overall pick might not be a fantasy TE1 to start but this was confirmation that he has a chance to make some noise as the season progresses. The Bears' starters were functional.

• The Bears used Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore in 2-WR sets, with Olamide Zaccheaus playing in all 3-WR sets ahead of Luther Burden. Odunze had a drop and Zaccheaus had a 3rd-down TD against press man coverage. Apparently Zaccheaus has been lighting it up in camp.

• The Jaguars changed up their RB rotation. Last week, it was a drive-by-drive scenario with Travis Etienne starting. This week, it was a situation-by-situation scenario with Tank Bigsby starting. Bigsby looked solid and even caught his screen pass, but he was subbed out on his 3rd-down snaps for Etienne on his drive. The following drive was mostly Etienne's, though Bigsby did steal two early-down snaps, too. Etienne broke a few tackles and converted a 3rd-and-3 carry. After those two drives, the starters were pulled and 4th-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten entered the game. This felt like the most realistic split, where things should initially favor Etienne but the late-season workload will be earned by their in-season performance. It sounds like the plan is to also keep rookie passing-down RB LeQuint Allen, too.

• I get it. If you choose to fully ignore this preseason usage, then by all means, go for it. But I do want to spend some time on the Brock Bowers situation for those who are a bit spooked. In the two preseason games, the Raiders have been in 3-WR sets (1 tight end on the field) on 17-of-19 Geno Smith dropbacks. The only two that weren't were the 3-TE-set runs at the 1-yard line. That by itself is a surprise, as OC Chip Kelly typically runs a balanced offense and that's a pass-based personnel grouping. Of course, Kelly does some wild things, and maybe he will be balanced but wants to keep defenses in light boxes with lighter defensive personnel. So why do we care? Well, Bowers has played on 6-of-17 3-WR set plays compared to Michael Mayer's 11. Mayer is unquestionably a better blocker and isn't a slouch himself for what it's worth. This would be the worst case scenario for his usage, but it's not going to be this bad. Teams don't use 11-personnel this much throughout the year, and it's hard to believe Bowers will be out there for a third of the snaps in this grouping when the bullets are flying. That said, the second round is loaded this year and Kelly is the old-school principled coach to do something as controversial as not playing the all-time rookie TE receiving leader as many snaps as possible. For reference, Kelly's Buckeyes were in 3-WR sets on 69% of plays and 12-personnel on 20% last year. This seems like a good projection split for the Raiders this year... Trey McBride (who is a total dog himself) is safer at this point if that means something to you, but I wouldn't go overboard with the reaction here. If Bowers is available in Round 3, take him, especially in redraft leagues.

• Just like last week, it was Jakobi Meyers in the slot with Tre Tucker and 4th-round WR Dont'e Thornton in 3-WR sets, with 2nd-round WR Jack Bech in with the backups. Long story short: take Meyers.

• I thought the entire Jets operation was miserable this week. Justin Fields was routinely late on throws, not seeing things clearly, and misplaced some passes. He locked onto Garrett Wilson, as expected, but defenses already know where the ball is going on 3rd downs. This could be a tough watch.

• The Jets didn't have RB3 Isaiah Davis due to injury, so we don't have full clarity on the depths of this committee. It was Breece Hall as the starter and, but Braelon Allen checked in for the 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 carries on the first drive. Allen also checked in for another 3rd-and-1 later. It's not good news for Breece, as goal line opportunities are now trending towards Allen and the Jets might not get down to the red area often, plus have Justin Fields to run things in himself.

• Jets 2nd-round rookie TE Mason Taylor played 13-of-18 snaps with Justin Fields and was a starter. He was subbed out for TE Jeremy Ruckert on obvious rushing downs in 3-WR sets for blocking purposes. Taylor was mediocre as a blocker in college but could be the 2nd or 3rd target on a bad Jets passing offense. He's a fine late round pick in best ball and could make some noise on the waiver wire by year's end.

• Tyrone Tracy started and played 12-of-15 snaps with Russell Wilson. One of his lost snaps was to Devin Singletary at the goal line, one play after Tracy was stuffed on a carry that I think should've easily been a score. 4th-round rookie RB Cam Skattebo is rehabbing a hamstring injury currently but does have 10+ pounds on both backs when he's healthy. Committee backfield is most likely here.

• Emeka Egbuka had a corner route TD in the red zone against Cover 1 man defense. He's a star in the making. My upside comp pre-draft was Cooper Kupp for what it's worth. Unfortunately, Jalen McMillan backflipped his way onto his neck and may miss some time.

• The Steelers rested starters, including RB Jaylen Warren. They gave Kenneth Gainwell the first snaps, then gave a bunch to 3rd-round rookie RB Kaleb Johnson. He did well. There were four quality cutback runs, a staple in the OC Arthur Smith offense, and he showcased some speed when he correctly bounced a run to the outside where he ran by the CB and S he was responsible for. Johnson caught an improv pass as well, but he was a bit late to a CB blitz. The Steelers rookie-year plan is likely to groom him for early-down carries and spell him with Warren on passing downs. That may not happen right away, but this was a very clear step in the correct direction... and it's not an August recap without a signature Trey Sermon touchdown.

• The Cowboys rested starters, including RB Javonte Williams. They gave Miles Sanders some run after he had missed the following week with an injury. 5th-round rookie Jaydon Blue missed with an injury. It's notable that the Cowboys also had all-around FB Hunter Luepke on the field for 5-of-12 snaps with the "starters" in this one. Reports are that the fullback and WR Kavontae Turpin will get some "RB" touches this year, and it's possible a new face or 7th-round rookie RB Phil Mafah make some noise eventually. It's a messy situation still. Williams is in line for Week 1 touches as of now.

• The Broncos rested most of their starters, including QB Bo Nix, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Marvin Mims, and RB JK Dobbins. It was interesting that TE Evan Engram and RB RJ Harvey had to play, but at least both looked good. Harvey's insertion into the lineup isn't as surprising because 1st-round rookie Jahdae Barron also had to play. It's unclear how touches will be divided between Dobbins and Harvey right now. It does look like Audric Estime will be released or healthy scratched.

• Anthony Richardson generally played well in relief of Daniel Jones. His first drive was filled with short completions, but he had two stand out plays on top of it. There was a 3rd-and-9 conversion on a scramble, then there was a fade-away deep completion that was right on the money. Richardson still missed a couple passes with bad accuracies and never made high-end progression throws, but it wasn't the disaster it was in Week 1 either. Meanwhile, Jones made a couple of nice plays and avoided negatives. He did also whiff on a could-be score to Tyler Warren up the sideline. Coach Shane Steichen said he's making a QB1 decision soon. I don't have a read on who it will be.

• Ironically, Christian McCaffrey is the only healthy 49ers RB. Isaac Guerendo, Jordan James, and now Corey Kiner are all on the shelf.

• Russell Wilson hit a 60+ air yard post route for a near TD with the 1st-team offense after checking into the look because the safety rotated down pre-snap, and then Jaxson Dart played the next few drives. Coach Brian Daboll called a no-huddle offense with Dart, and it worked very well. It was mostly underneath plays, but he was confident, accurate, and mobile. His last play was a QB sneak TD, and his best play was a dig route over the middle that had some good RPMs on it. If the Giants call the fast-paced offense that Dart was accustomed to at Ole Miss, then that's good news for all Giants players in fantasy. We'll see how long Dart has to wait to start. Russ has looked solid in camp and in the preseason.

• Blake Corum was ahead of 4th-round rookie RB Jarquez Hunter again. They are competing to complement Kyren Williams.

• Xavier Hutchinson played ahead of both Texans' rookie WRs, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. That's not great, as this week is now viewed as the closest thing there is to a dress rehearsal. Higgins has to climb a bit to get into the valuable 2-WR sets. Christian Kirk started in 2-WR sets with Nico Collins, who scored a touchdown per usual. I still like Higgins as a sleeper in redraft, but we need to be realistic about the early-season role. That, of course, is the least valuable time of the calendar. Higgins dropped a pass and was flagged for holding this weekend.

• Rico Dowdle once again subbed in for Chuba Hubbard on both 3rd downs in Carolina. Both are targets of mine in their perspective rounds.

• Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson played most of the second drive, while Antonio Gibson filled in for Rhamondre Stevenson (rest) on the first drive. Henderson finished off that drive with a red zone score. He looked good again. He also had a committee role again.

• Colts rookie RB D.J. Giddens was next to play after Jonathan Taylor's day was done.

• Tyler Warren played 13-of-14 snaps with Daniel Jones. That'll do it. He was joined by Mo Alie-Cox in run-blocking situations in 2-TE sets.

• Packers RB2 Marshawn Lloyd returned to action, caught a nice wheel route up the sideline, and then left the game with a setback to his hamstring. After the game when asked about his availability this week, coach Matt LaFleur said, "We'll see." I don't think he's happy about the situation.

• The Eagles' backup RB competition is over. Will Shipley rested with the clear starters, while A.J. Dillon played. Shipley seems to be one of the most mis-priced players in best ball and can be drafted in normal redraft leagues, too.

• Browns rookies, TE Harold Fannin, RB Dylan Sampson, DT Mason Graham and LB Carson Schwesinger, all sat with the starters. That's bullish for their involvement this year. Coach Kevin Stefanski no commented a question about Quinshon Judkins, who is unsigned as of this very moment.

• De'Von Achane is out "days and weeks" with a lower-body soft-tissue injury. Tough. There's a chance he could miss Week 1 and even if not, there is increased re-injury risk. His ranking deserves to drop. His backups are Jaylen Wright and 6th-round rookie thumper Ollie Gordon. It'd likely be a committee in favor of Wright if Achane's injury is worse than let on.

• Cooper Kupp lined up inside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba on most reps, sometimes operating as a check-and-release option underneath. This won't be an offense that puts JSN into that many press-man coverage reps based on the bunched sets and the motion they'll deploy, but Kupp is generally the "slot" based on the preseason snaps. Marquez Valdes-Scantling joined them in 3-WR sets with the starters, but 5th-round WR Tory Horton has been pushing MVS in camp. This is all burying the lede. Jake Bobo was the star of the pass game.

• 2nd-round rookie TE Elijah Arroyo was the Seahawks' TE3, playing into the 4th quarter. Physical TE1 A.J. Barner played 8-of-10 snaps with Sam Darnold. Barner was a big part of the Seahawks' run-game dominance, and he did it in a variety of different ways. It'd be shocking if Barner wasn't the TE1 this year. He's built for this offense.

• All 3 of Xavier Worthy's routes were downfield routes. That wasn't the case when Rashee Rice was out last year, so we could see his usage take a rollercoaster ride as Rice serves his pending suspension.

• Cam Ward once again flashed some fun arm angles with real arm strength, but he also had the loose feet and mechanics which led to some inaccuracies. He reminds me of a less-polished Jordan Love.

• Titans TE Chig Okonkwo played 6-of-8 snaps before his night was done. This is in line with late last year and keeps the momentum going for a fantasy TE2 role. He did get smoked in the blocking department on tape, however. Rookie backup TE Gunner Helm played well and sprinkled in with the starters, too.

• Rashee Rice will have a hearing with the NFL Office on September 30th, the Tuesday after Week 4. He'll very likely be eligible for games before then and will likely serve a suspension sometime after that hearing. The evidence of the case seems to be fully outlined and on video, so there must be some disagreement on the amount of games missed between the league and Rice's party. That range is estimated to be 2-12 games with 4-6 being the median outcome. If Rice doesn't like the outcome of Judge Sue L. Robinson, then he can appeal it to Commissioner Roger Goodell. An appeal would drag this out, potentially to the fantasy playoff window or even potentially to the next season. The only thing outlined in the NFL CBA about the timeline with this is that it needs to happen "promptly." It's curious as to why this hearing happens during the season when his plea was accepted on July 17th, but a report suggests it's because Robinson is busy. Come on... We're in the wild west of making predictions here, but if I had to make one, it'll be 4-6 games and around the Chiefs Week 10 bye. It would've been better had he missed the first four weeks for those same reasons, as well as guaranteeing he wouldn't serve a suspension during the fantasy playoffs. That isn't likely to happen still, but that door is now open. I have him as a Round 5 pick in Full PPR redraft where his value is at his best because he catches a lot of passes and the bar to make your redraft playoffs is lower (commonly 6 teams out of 12) versus in best ball (2 out of 12). I have him ranked 57th.

  • Update: NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports the NFL is pushing for "double digit" games, which is why there is a hearing with a judge at the end of September. The Chiefs were bracing for 4-6 games. A settlement is possible, even before the hearing, but this is close to the worst-case scenario for Rashee Rice drafters. If he got 10 games after that hearing, he'd partially miss the fantasy playoffs that you're less likely to be in in the first place. Even if there is a settlement, that figure is still now more likely to be in the 6-10 game range than in the far more optimistic 2-4 game length that some believed was in play. As a reminder, Rice was originally hit with 8 felonies. If I had to guess, this will be a 6-game suspension. I've lowered him once again to 73rd overall. I have Xavier Worthy at 29th overall and Travis Kelce at 77th overall.

• Quinshon Judkins had his case dropped because the prosecution didn't believe they had enough evidence to win in court. That's great news for Judkins' odds of playing in 2025, but it also doesn't fully clear him. The NFL is doing their own investigation of the domestic abuse, and their bar for finding evidence is far lower than it is in court. Multiple NFL players have been suspended despite cases being dropped. There seems to be some evidence based on the police report of bruising, so it's still more likely than not that he gets suspended at some point. He's also eligible for the Commissioner's Exempt List while the NFL's investigation continues. It's possible the NFL has the details they need to announce a suspension, but it's also possible this takes some time to reach a conclusion. Reports make it seem like the Browns are close to signing him and have him practice. It's probably just enough time for him to get ready for Week 1 if he's eligible to play. The range of outcomes are very wide here. The worst case scenario remains the Exempt List until their investigation is settled. The median outcome would be a prompt conclusion and a 4-6 game suspension as outlined in the NFL Personal Conduct Policy. The best-case scenario would be inconclusive evidence and no games served. There have been appeals in previous cases that have lingered a long time, too. I'd set his higher lower of games missed at 4.0, likely in the first half of the season. His ADP should climb back inside the top-100 by other rookies like Kaleb Johnson and Cam Skattebo. I have him ranked 111th.

• The silence around Joe Mixon's injury is odd. Reports from the offseason are also contradictory. Initially it was an ankle. Now the national reporters claim foot. A podiatrists office posted in early August that they had treated Mixon, but it's unclear if it was that day or just earlier on. To be clear, I have received contradictory DMs about this. A plugged-in Texans reporter said he's continuing his rehab and making good progress, while some non-reporters have heard things are actually very bad. It'd be nice if there was an update here, but in the meantime, Mixon's ADP has dropped into the 90s. If he was fully healthy, he'd go in the 50s after being a top-12 asset last year. For every day that passes, expect his ADP to drop another 2-4 spots. The Texans said they'd re-evaluate closer to the season, so it's possible his ADP gets into the 120 range next to pure handcuff types. I'm inclined to buy there, fully acknowledging the risk. If you are team #Fade, then this is how I expect the Texans RB depth to shake out. It'd be a battle between Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce on early downs and a battle between Dare Ogunbowale and rookie Woody Marks on passing downs. I don't think anyone in this backfield has a bellcow skillset, so this is likely to be a full-blown committee with low-end talent. This is a team ripe for a post-cutdown day acquisition, too. I'm not thrilled about anyone. If I had to choose one, it'd be Pierce as they transition back to a power scheme. I have Mixon ranked 112th right after Judkins.

2025 Preseason Week 1 Notes

• Marvin Mims played 16-of-19 snaps with Bo Nix as the clear-cut WR2 in Denver. Just as notably, Mims played outside on 15-of-16 reps versus playing outside on just 50% of his snaps last year. This is a big role change. Beware of copying his per-route stats as he transitions into a far harder position, but if he's playing outside, then it's harder for 3rd-round WR Pat Bryant to see the field. It was Troy Franklin in the slot here.

• Colts TE Tyler Warren got smoked by Ravens 2nd-round DE Mike Green on a couple of run-blocking reps. Green is on the Mt. Rushmore for most impressive rookie preseason debuts of any position.

• Jets 1st-round RT Armand Membou looked great.

• Dolphins 1st-round DT Kenneth Grant was one of the very best players of the week.

• The Texans used 3rd-round WR Jaylin Noel in a bunch of different ways. He played some in the slot, but he also played outside and was used a couple of times as the motion man at the time of the snap. They gave him a screen as well. He's likely a bench player to start the year, but they gave him some fun usage at the very least. I liked him pre-draft. Meanwhile, 2nd-round WR Jayden Higgins was an outside WR and played 18-of-22 snaps with the primary "starters". We'll see if he's in 2-WR sets ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 1. Noel was out there for 11-of-22 snaps.

• Luther Burden was a slot player in the preseason opener as expected. He had a 3rd-and-15 win (against one of the worst CB reps you could imagine), and then a 1st-and-10 shallow cross conversion. There's not a lot to take away from his performance, but coach Ben Johnson reiterated that he's behind schematically right now and is making progress after a slow offseason program. There's a chance Olamide Zaccheaus starts in Week 1 for what it's worth.

• Packers RB Marshawn Lloyd returned to practice. He's hoping to be the RB2.

• Steelers 3rd-round rookie RB Kaleb Johnson was technically the RB3, with Jaylen Warren resting and Kenneth Gainwell entering first. Johnson's stats were bad, but he did nothing wrong. His vision and decision-making was on point. He forced a couple broken tackles and beat a defender to the edge. It would be nice if he was already comfortably ahead of Gainwell, but there's no reason to panic right now. He's a mid-round selection with a bellcow college history.

• Same old stuff with Cardinals RB2 Trey Benson. He looks quick, but he's indecisive and too jumpy. Many of runs are pointed to the outside, probably because they don't want him reading things out up the middle. It's not exactly a 1-for-1 replacement to James Conner. I'd be surprised if Conner isn't a mini bellcow again.

• Rachaad White (groin) is day-to-day. He played, while Bucky Irving rested. It was clear that Sean Tucker was the RB3 as expected.

• The Saints RB2 right now is Kendre Miller. Their QB1 is Spencer Rattler until proven otherwise. It hasn't been close in camp per their beat reporters.

• The Chargers rested starters, included Quentin Johnston and rookie Omarion Hampton, but 2nd-round rookie WR Tre Harris had to play 25 snaps. That extended into the QB3 Trey Lance snaps. Not a good sign that he's in the mix with Keenan Allen added. In an offense that will use 2-WR sets more than others, it's time to move Harris and Johnston down rankings. I expect Allen to join undisputed WR1 Ladd McConkey in 2-WR sets. On tape, I thought Harris looked slow and generally struggled coming out of his break.

• Jaxson Dart had a very promising debut. He was aggressive, mobile, and decisive. There were a couple of misplaced underneath/intermediate throws sprinkled in, but for the most part, Dart made the correct read and navigated the pocket well. A pre-snap signal to his WR based on the defensive alignment opened up a highlight TD throw on a go ball. Dart can certainly spin the ball. He also took off for an impressive scramble. Overall, Dart looked like a 1st-round QB with some upside. Whether he sees the field this year or not depends on if Russell Wilson can keep things afloat with an underrated roster around him. He played fine in his Giants debut. Speaking of, 3rd-overall pick Abdul Carter was pretty much unblockable. This might be the best defensive line in the NFL.

• RJ Harvey is a winner of Preseason Week 1 for two main reasons: he played 63% snaps of the starting snaps and looked fast. JK Dobbins played on some passing plays, but it was Harvey who handled the carries in the action. The results were mixed. He picked up 11 yards because of his speed, but this rep was a failed outside zone decision, where he bounced it outside when the cutback was wide open. Harvey messed up a duo run by bouncing it outside instead of cutting it back. He had an outside zone run where he bounced it outside instead of heading into the B-gap. He ended it by failing to read his LB on a duo run, where he should've cut it back instead of bouncing it outside. For the most part, Harvey's decision making was bad, but he was athletically pleasing. We'll see if they give Dobbins more carries next week or if they continue giving Harvey tests. For context, Harvey had 145 inside zone carries to just 6 outside zone carries last year. He's used to a very particular play call.

• Marvin Mims Jr. is a Preseason Week 1 winner because he lined up in the 2-WR sets with Courtland Sutton, despite his behind the line-of-scrimmage usage and outlier size. There was a rotation at WR3 between Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele, and 3rd-round rookie Pat Bryant, and coach Sean Payton has usage receiver rotations throughout his play-calling career.

• Evan Engram only played 13-of-18 snaps with Bo Nix (72%). That's enough to be on the TE1/2 border, but that's not exactly "Joker" work. The Broncos used plenty of 2-TE sets with Adam Trautman operating as the more in-line option.

• The battle for backup snaps to Kyren Williams is between 2024 3rd-rounder Blake Corum and 4th-round rookie Jarquez Hunter. Corum played first and scored two red zone touchdowns. He had some nice cuts and plays fairly decisive. It was a solid night. Hunter is more north-south with more burst. He also had nice vision and fought for some hard yards. The OLs for both were struggling. It's Corum for RB2 duties right now.

• Patrick Mahomes only played 3 snaps. Isiah Pacheco was out there for all of them. It was Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thorton initially, but Jason Brownlee caught a great pass in the red zone before 4th-round rookie Jalen Royals subbed in with the 2nd-string offense. Of note, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown weren't available. At best Royals is the WR5 right now, but he might even be the WR6 or WR7. Even worse, 7th-round rookie RB (and converted WR) Brashard Smith was the 5th RB to play and only played with the QB3 on the field. Both Smith and Royals are drafted in nearly all 18-round leagues on Underdog. Not for me.

• Marvin Harrison Jr. caught a pass over the middle and did slide into the slot for a rep, but he also primarily played X receiver and was literally pressed into the sideline for a rep. So much for those biceps. Kyler Murray threw an interception that'll make your head spin, too.

• Cam Ward and the Titans starters played. He made a few nice throws, particularly to Calvin Ridley, but he also had pretty loose mechanics that led to either being late or inaccurate. This was something that crept up on his college tape and will likely take a few years to get under control. His WR2 and WR3 in this debut were Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett. Meanwhile, Chig Okonkwo played all snaps with Ward. That's a very good sign for him after playing more late last year. He could be the 2nd target in a slightly better offense. That's a late-round TE recipe we want to gobble up.

• The Jets used a 3-RB committee with Justin Fields. Breece Hall started and played the most snaps, but RB3 Isaiah Davis played the 3rd-and-longs and Braelon Allen had a few early-down snaps. It's bad news for Hall on an underwhelming offense, one with a dual-threat QB who can run in some TDs himself (like we saw in the debut). Hall isn't negotiated for a new contract like Kyren Williams and James Cook are, despite entering the NFL at the same time. I could see a trade materializing as a long shot, but for now, Hall isn't a comfortable click in Round 3. Allen would benefit the most in the long-shot event of a Hall trade. I just know if I were the Chiefs, I'd be dangling a 4th-round pick over to the new Jets' front office.

• The Cowboys didn't have their top-3 RB options, so it was Deuce Vaughn and rookie Phil Mafah doing the heavy lifting. There are Mafah fans for what it's worth. He's a lot bigger than anyone else they have.

• Matthew Stafford had a throwing session pre-game and "looked awesome" per coach Sean McVay. He needed an epidural for a disc issue in his back but should be back on the practice field this next week. Crisis averted for now. There could be flair ups or complete setbacks in the future for the 37-year-old. Tony Romo's back eventually failed him. Same with Peyton Manning's neck. But Philip Rivers and others have managed to complete seasons with similar issues.

• Travis Etienne started and played 100% of the snaps with Trevor Lawrence, before the duo left the field together. Etienne picked up a 1st down on a screen. Afterwards, Tank Bigsby and the 2nd-team offense checked in. Bigsby played that entire drive, one that ended on a 3rd-and-5 drop from Bigsby. The rest of the night belonged to Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen, who subbed in for Bigbsy on a 3rd-and-13 to officially be the 3rd RB to enter. Tuten was driven into the end zone by his own OL on a 4th-quarter carry. The pecking order in drafts should be Etienne, Bigsby, then Tuten, even if there's still uncertainty here. The Jaguars showed their biggest hand tonight and it happens to be the same order as NFL experience and investment.

  • Bonus: They finally released the Tuten all-22 film, and his performance was really good. His decision-making was good, and he fought for extra yards.

• The Jaguars passing attack was a little flashier. There was some motion and different alignments. Brian Thomas usually played outside but did move into the slot. That's good news. Travis Hunter was their primary slot receiver, and Dyami Brown was the WR3. All three had drawn-up underneath touches on the Jaguars long first drive. On it, Trevor Lawrence nearly put BTJ into the hospital with a high pass right into a safety. He turned his head off of play action and didn't see the defender. Rough look.

• Jayden Reed has been banged up in camp, but he showed up to the sidelines wearing a boot on his foot for what is now being reported as a new ankle injury. He had a foot injury prior. That puts him week-to-week and puts him even further behind Matthew Golden in the Packers' pecking order. During their Family Night practice, Golden ran the most routes, while Reed was stuck in his usual slot-only role. Romeo Doubs was the WR2 in their preseason game, though drops were an issue. The answer here, to me, is the 1st-round rookie who is drawing rave reviews from the head coach, quarterback, and the media. In this preseason debut, Golden played all snaps with the starters, converted a slant for a 1st down, drew a DPI vs. Sauce Gardner, was the primary motion man, and ran a bubble on an RPO.

• Titans RB2 Tyjae Spears suffered a high-ankle sprain and is now questionable for the season opener and will likely miss a majority of the rest of camp. His entire collegiate and professional career has been plagued by new injuries. Brutal sport. I moved him slightly down and Tony Pollard slightly up. Pollard was playing most of the snaps with the starters anyways (11-of-14 with Cam Ward).

• The Bills didn't have Josh Allen or James Cook, but the "starters" still played. That included TE Dawson Knox, who played ahead of Dalton Kincaid on most of the early downs while Kincaid checked in for most of the 3rd downs. That's similar to the previous years' usage. Not the best-case scenario for Kincaid, though he did sub out after the 2nd drive while other "starters" played a 3rd drive. Knox capped off his preseason debut with a touchdown in the flats.

• The Texans didn't have Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, or , so it was Dare Ogunbowale drawing the start at RB. 4th-round rookie Woody Marks appears to be buried on the depth chart right now.

• Patriots 2nd-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson looked extremely fast. He blew past the kicker for a 100-yard kick return touchdown (21.1 MHP), then showcased some speed on a pitch as the RB2. He also caught a pass in the flats, made a defender miss, and then lowered his shoulder on the next defender. It was a very promising debut for the speed alone. All that said, Rhamondre Stevenson currently has a valuable role, too. Stevenson started the game, had a few nice runs himself, handled 1st- and 2nd-down snaps from the 5-yard line, and played 8-of-14 snaps with Drake Maye. Henderson was out there for 7-of-14. This should be a version of Gibbs/Montgomery, just on a team projected for 22 points per game instead of 31 points per game.

• Here were the Patriots WR snaps on the 14 Drake Maye plays: Hollins (11), Boutte (10), Douglas (10), Williams (3). 3rd-round rookie Kyle Williams mostly played with the backups, but he did cook a press-man corner in the red zone for a should-be TD. Josh Dobbs missed him. There were a couple of downfield opportunities that Dobbs missed as well. Williams has to climb ahead of Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte to get outside WR reps with the Patriots 1st-team offense, but it was a promising debut. Stefon Diggs did not suit up. Pop Douglas will be the primary slot.

• The Panthers started in a 2-WR set with 1st-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette, but the sophomore was ejected for throwing punches shortly after. McMillan showed off his acrobatic ability on a sideline grab against press-man coverage, and it matched up with Bryce Young's best plays: pre-snap anticipation throws into buckets 15-30 yards downfield. Get used to it. The other routes from McMillan were sub-par, however. There was a press-man loss on a go ball, a dropped TD, and a loss on a shorter throw. He's going to face a ton of press-man coverage at X-receiver and run the most difficult routes in their play book. Meanwhile, Jalen Coker made a fantastic one-handed catch from the slot on a go ball, a scramble drill TD, and then had a nice out route vs. off man coverage. It was a good night for him, though his physical limitation showed up on a curl and back-shoulder ball on other reps. He mostly played flanker, while Adam Thielen started as a slot-only player in 3-WR sets. I'm moving Legette down and Coker up, going off this game and what we saw from each as rookies.

• Chuba Hubbard was subbed out for Rico Dowdle on the 3rd-and-6 in the opening drive. This was the case in 2024 as well, but a reminder that he's unlikely to catch as many passes as the RB1's in front of him. If the Panthers take a step as a team, Hubbard will see heavy rushing work. 4th-round rookie Trevor Etienne appears to be buried on the depth chart and had a fumble as a kick returner. I'm not moving anyone in this backfield.

• Shedeur Sanders had plenty of good and bad reps in his debut, but in general, it was a solid start and puts him on pace to make the team and potentially be the QB2. My thread of his play is below. In short, he was a little late on a few throws that led to incompletions and didn't throw anything down the field really, but he did have two nice scrambles, a 3rd-and-8 dig, and the two red zone throws with nice touch. The Browns used him in empty, shotgun, under center, bootleg, etc. They threw a lot at him.

• The Browns rested their starters and that pretty much included rookie RB Dylan Sampson and rookie TE Harold Fannin. Each will be in rotations during the regular season, but this was a good sign that they didn't have big roles in the preseason.

• Jalen Milroe played a ton of snaps with the 3rd-team offense, after QB2 Drew Lock had a very up-and-down day with some chaotic decisions sprinkled in. Milroe was equally up-and-down, as expected. Immediately, the speed unquestionably translates. More importantly, Milroe's accuracy stood out as a positive, which isn't always the case with super strong dual-threat types. I didn't think that was a real problem on his college tape either. He made a couple of nice reads, but the 3rd-and-long situations were a weak spot. He was late on a few throws or misread a couple of defenses or was too quick to scramble. This is where he needs more time in the offense and probably why we won't see him in 2025 unless there's an injury to Sam Darnold. I'd personally put him as the Seahawks QB2 and give him as many practice reps as possible to get him up to speed quicker. His ceiling is so far higher than Lock's. That much is obvious.

• Seahawks 5th-round rookie WR Tory Horton played with the 2nd-team offense but has been pushing Marquez Valdes-Scantling in practices. He scored a red zone TD against zone coverage and looked like someone with some real juice in his routes on his other reps. He's 18th-round eligible on Underdog, especially on Sam Darnold stacks. This offense is begging for a deep threat in this downfield play-action offense with a high-end arm talent QB. The other rookie in Seattle is TE Elijah Arroyo. His night was fairly quiet. He had a couple of bad blocking reps on tape but caught two passes. His usage was split with Eric Saubert and is a potential sign that he's going to be limited in snaps as a rookie. A.J. Barner is the likeliest to lead the Seahawks TE group in snaps.

• Will Shipley played ahead of A.J. Dillon, drew rave reviews from the Eagles broadcast booth after talking with coaches, and then ripped off a couple big runs. Shipley is a late-round target with a bellcow history at Clemson. Saquon Barkley is coming off a rate high-volume season.

• Colts backup RB competition has largely been narrowed to rookie D.J. Giddens and Tyler Goodson, who actually started in this game. Neither made any splash plays while rotating with one another. Giddens did have a drop on a little Texas route out of the backfield. Most notably, Khalil Herbert didn't check in for a while afterwards. Giddens is a soft favorite for Jonathan Taylor's backup role, but that isn't set in stone yet.

• Jakobi Meyers was in the slot for his handful of starting reps, with Tre Tucker and rookie Dont'e Thornton Jr. as the vertical threats on the perimeter. When Meyers (and Tucker!!!) left the game with Geno Smith, they filled in the slot with a rando and placed 2nd-round rookie Jack Bech as an outside receiver. That means Bech is behind both Tucker and Thornton on the depth chart right now. Thornton dropped a back-shoulder ball from Geno, lined up offsides, and ran one of the worst routes ever in his reps. Bech had an off-coverage stop route completion and nothing else. It seems like Tucker is in line for 2-WR set snaps right now, and he goes largely undrafted in best ball. It's appropriate to drop Bech in rankings, as he profiled best as a slot receiver in the NFL and won't have that role unless they move Meyers around.

• Anthony Richardson lasted five dropbacks before suffering a new self-inflicted injury. It's to his pinky and came after a simulated pressure created an unblocked rusher, who Richardson was solely responsible for. Richardson didn't get the ball out, and didn't even seen the DE coming. This slightly tilts things back towards Daniel Jones, which may end up being a benefit for Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Warren in fantasy. Warren was targeted a few times on a variety of different routes in the preseason opener.

• Chase Brown lost obvious pass-down snaps to Samaje Perine with the Bengals' 1st-team offense. This was expected and should keep his ADP at the Round 2/3 border. Perine is a pass protection wizard, while Brown will handle most touches in the offense. While it would've helped to have the exact role as he had down the stretch, Brown doesn't need the entire pie to pay off a low-end RB1 price tag. He was targeted thrice. Tahj Brooks was the clear-cut next guy up. He looked like a potential do-everything backup in the backup role to Brown. He was subbed out by Perine on obvious passing situations while Perine was still playing, and then he handled his own pass-situation snaps when Perine's night was over. His pass protection reps and scanning for blitzers was sound, and that was a positive part of his pre-draft scouting report, too. Brooks is a last-round target.

• I swear Eagles backup Tanner McKee is an NFL starter. I'm dead serious.

• Keaton Mitchell didn't get much action in 2024 after a significant knee tear, so it was great to see multiple 20+ yard runs a bit of wiggle from the explosive handcuff. He's competing with Justice Hill for RB2 duties behind Derrick Henry. Mitchell offers more rushing ability, while Hill is in line for pass-game duties. Neither have goal-line size, but Mitchell is draftable in 18 round drafts like on Underdog Fantasy.

• Chargers LT Rashawn Slater is in the top-5 discussion at the position, and he's suddenly out for the year with a torn patella. The Chargers splits without him are drastic, as were the offenses when LTs Trent Williams, Andrew Thomas, Alaric Jackson, etc. Los Angeles arguably is better suited to replace him with RT Joe Alt likely kicking over and then having two experienced players available to fill in at right tackle, but this is typically an injury that lowers scoring per game by 1-3 points on average. This will impact the ground game the most, followed by the downfield pass game. I believe Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen's underneath work won't be as effected by the injury, but there is a lot of opportunity cost in Round 2 for McConkey. I've moved McConkey to 24th overall, Omarion Hampton to 38th overall, and the rest of the group down a few spots. It's worth noting McConkey hasn't practiced since July 28th with a leg injury, perhaps a quad or hamstring injury. Neither has RG Mekhi Becton.

• RJ Harvey has been a 30% player behind JK Dobbins (70%) in Broncos training camp according to Benjamin Allbright, who I very much trust with Broncos stuff. The key difference between the two has been pass protection. Dobbins is play 3rd-and-longs and in the two-minute drill, where plenty of receptions take place. Dobbins is also a bit bigger, so it's possible he's the primary goal-line back as well. Allbright believes Harvey is going too early in drafts right now, which is a statement that is more believable to hear out of a beat reporter compared to when a beat reporter tells us we are too low on a player. Harvey obviously has some value and remains an upside play, but there is a cost element here. He's currently a 5th/6th round pick on Underdog. I have him lower than that.

• Keenan Allen signed to the Chargers for $8.25M, essentially low-end starter money. The plan is for him to play, and likely to start in the slot in 3-WR sets. We'll see if they use Allen and Ladd McConkey in 2-WR sets, but this does send 2nd-round rookie Tre Harris and Quentin Johnston to nearly zero. There aren't enough pass attempts after giving McConkey his 25-35% targets, and it's unclear who will be the third starter in the offense. Allen isn't the same player as he once was, but he has chemistry with Justin Herbert and is more reliable than the others in the offense. As for McConkey, he's closer to the top-10 real life WRs than given credit for. He cooked corners from the slot, yes, but he was a total headache for outside corners, too. He's an incredible athlete and a smart route runner. I broke ties with Tee Higgins and a few RBs in late Round 2 rankings, but McConkey remains a top-24 asset, even in half PPR.

• Jordan Addison is suspended for the first 3 games. This was fully expected, as it's outlined in the personal conduct policy. I've had him at 81st overall for a bit versus his ADP in the 60s. Expect his ADP to drop with news officially hitting the timeline. Don't discount the other moving parts in Minnesota, however. Addison scored more TDs than his usage would expect last year because Sam Darnold was on fire when throwing downfield. That's not JJ McCarthy's game. Instead, he runs a more balanced intermediate offense, which matches the Vikings' offseason additions of bruising RB Jordan Mason, 1st-round LG Donovan Jackson, veteran C Ryan Kelly, and veteran RG Will Fries. I don't see his numbers repeating. Fade.

2025 Top 36 Overall Rankings

1. WR1 Ja'Marr Chase (ADP: 1.1): This chart shows that 51% of Underdog Fantasy teams with Ja'Marr Chase finished in 1st or 2nd place during the regular season. Insane.

2. WR2 CeeDee Lamb (ADP: 4.2): Over the past two seasons, Lamb is the WR1 overall in half PPR points per game, including the games that Dak Prescott missed. He's an elite WR in a role made for fantasy, and there's nothing about the George Pickens profile that should have us concerned, as he's a chain mover while not being a volume hog. The Cowboys' coaching change leaves some questions in regards to their pass-heaviness, but new HC Brian Schottenheimer has been the Dallas OC during these two seasons and is probably looking at his best skill players being pass-related and building towards that. A December schedule chalk with shoot-out dome matchups (@DET, vs. MIN, vs. LAC, and @WAS) is the cherry on top.

3. RB1 Saquon Barkley (ADP: 4.5): Last year's co-MVP in fantasy football has nothing in his profile to cause concern, other than that he's coming off 482 touches including the Eagles' Super Bowl run. That's the 2nd-most since 2000, and the backs who see that many typically fall off a bit the next year. To put numbers on that: Since 2000, there have been 47 RBs to have 400+ touches and play the next season. The median outcome for the following season is 311 regular season touches, which is like 13 healthy games or so based on his per-game usage. This lowers his floor, but Saquon finished with the most half PPR fantasy points over replacement at any position last year and nothing really changed in Philly.

4. RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP: 5.2): Only Saquon and Derrick Henry averaged more half PPR points per game last year (18.3), and there are multiple ways he can take another leap. David Montgomery could no longer be the "starter" and handle a 50/50 split of goal-line touches, or D-Mont could just miss significant time. In either scenario, Gibbs has 1st overall player in fantasy easily within his range of outcomes. The flip side with this path is that he was the RB3 per game last year when the Lions scored 49 more points than the 2nd-best team in the NFL last year. That very likely doesn't hold this year, so Gibbs must get a bigger piece of the pie in 2025. I'll take those odds.

5. RB3 Bijan Robinson (ADP: 2.4): There was a year two leap last year in one key metric: goal-line carries. Bijan handled 70% of the Falcons' inside the 5-yard line opportunities, which is the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. He also caught 61 passes and averaged 4.8 YPC. It's hard to find spots where he can improve his fantasy stock from last year when he was the RB4 in half PPR points per game (17.6). To truly break into that next tier, the Falcons have to simply be a better offense. We'll see if Michael Penix with a new center can make that happen. Historically, Bijan is in great shape either way. He had the 12th-best age-22 RB season ever per half PPR points per game, and the top 20 in this metric averaged 17.5 half PPR points the following year.

6. RB4 Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 7.3): Since his 2018 breakout, CMC is the owner of the 1st, 3rd, 12th, and 18th spots in single-season half PPR points among all RBs, WRs, and TEs. His bankability of elite fantasy production is unrivaled when he's on the field, and the 29-year-old was out there practicing all offseason coming off a season where he only handled 65 touches. We have 10 seasons of a RB averaging more than 18.3 half PPR points at his age or older since 2000, so it's certainly possible he bounces all the way back towards fantasy greatness. If you only play in one league and don't want the risk, I get it. If you're firing up more than a couple and aren't scared to compete, let's get aggressive for as long as he survives training camp healthy. 90% of teams are going to lose anyways.

7. WR7 Nico Collins (ADP: 9.9): Including the NFL Playoffs, Collins averaged 94 YPG on 9.1 targets in his 11 healthy games. He's morphed into the ideal X-receiver in two short years, where the Texans can connect on 50-yard bombs over the top or hammer him underneath to let his YAC skills take over. If Houston's overhauled OL can gel quicker than expected or if new OC Nick Haley can fix the worse unblocked pressure rate I've ever seen, then C.J. Stroud and Collins should light up the box score again. The fact that he's ranked at just 12th overall shows how deep the 1st round is in fantasy this year.

8. WR4 Justin Jefferson (ADP: 4.2): The NFL's all-time leader in receiving yards per game (95.6) sits much lower than I'd like, but the projections and my thinking line up a ranking this "low". Jefferson "only" averaged 90 YPG last year while facing more target competition than ever, and it's unlikely that "rookie" J.J. McCarthy can match the total production Sam Darnold produced last season. McCarthy ran a tailored offense at Michigan, and the Vikings revamped their OL and re-signed their blocking TE in an attempt to be more balanced on offense. If there's a WR to overcome an offense projected for the 21st-most points while having two stud pass catchers to compete with, it's Jefferson.

9. WR6 Malik Nabers (ADP: 9.5): He was half PPR's WR7 per-game as a rookie in the No. 31 scoring offense. The Giants made three upgrades at QB over what they had last year, are hopeful to get more than 6 games out of Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas, and didn't make notable changes to Nabers' target competition. After watching his film, it's clear Nabers has all the physical tools to be one of the NFL's best, and it's also clear that there is more room for growth (vs. zone and on a more variety of intermediate routes). It's easy to see Nabers connecting on more than 46% of his targets beyond 10 air yards with Russell Wilson's finishing 2nd in PFF Grade on throws beyond 10 air yards last year (only behind Lamar Jackson).

10. WR3 Puka Nacua (ADP: 8.8): He's averaging 98 YPG in the games he played more than 75% snaps, and he led the NFL in yards per route (3.23) as a sophomore despite battling injuries. That's insane. Nacua is Gen Z's Larry Fitzgerald, meaning he can do it all. That's 2.2 targets behind the line of scrimmage and 7.7 beyond it. He's become Sean McVay's 2nd-most important player out of nowhere, and I don't see that changing with Davante Adams in-house. In fact, Nacua is likely to play more slot, get moved around more, and see better coverages with the veteran operating the more-difficult X-receiver spot. Assuming his body can survive the huge hits he takes (and creates), Nacua is just positive touchdown variance away from a special season. There's no way his career 3.3% touchdown rate continues.

11. RB5 De'Von Achane (ADP: 13.6): He's been a fantasy RB1 in back-to-back years to start his career, but they couldn't have happened in more different ways. Achane's rookie season was a home run derby (7.8 YPC), featuring scores from 10, 10, 25, 67, and 76 yards out. Last year, his rushing efficiency predictably dipped (4.5 YPC), but Achane had the receiving triple crown (78-592-6) among RBs. If we only took the 11 healthy Tua Tagovailoa games, Achane quietly averaged 19.3 half PPR points per game, which would've only trailed Saquon last year. Hopefully Tua can stay upright and the three new starters on the OL (LT Patrick Paul, LG James Daniels, and RG Jonah Savaiinaea) can gel because Achane has the potential to be the RB1 overall finisher if things break his way. On top of this, the Jonnu Smith trade opens up 20% target share (mostly underneath where Achane feasts) and the Jalen Ramsey trade puts the Dolphins in consideration for the very worst CB group in the NFL. What a win.

12. WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP: 11.7): That's back-to-back WR4-overall per-game finishes in half PPR scoring, and the Sun God has done so in two different ways. In 2023, Amon-Ra caught 7.4 passes for 94 YPG on 10.0 targets per game. Incredible volume. In 2024, he only had 8.3 targets per game but his TD rate spiked to a largely unsustainable 8.5% on way to the Lions' league-leading scoring. With regression coming with a worse OL and worse OC, Amon-Ra is likely headed closer to those 2023 numbers. Either way works for us.

13. WR8 Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP: 13.0): The only WR to average more half PPR points from Week 12 on last year was Ja'Marr Chase, and he did so with Mac Jones at QB and Doug Pederson at HC. BTJ has the physical traits to be one of the best WRs in the NFL if he continues his development (primarily just finding the weak spots in zone defense). He's too big and fast for CBs to contain him vertically, and the Jaguars deployed him underneath late in the year to great success. The latter is where new HC Liam Coen was so good at during his stint with the Bucs, and if Travis Hunter is limited to just 66-80% snaps on offense, then there's nothing stopping the 23-year-old from solidifying himself as an annual Round 1 candidate. He was already the WR6 overall in yards per route as an early-declare rookie.

14. RB6 Derrick Henry (ADP: 14.4): The Big Dog is giving the Age Cliff a full-blown beat down. Henry was half PPR's RB2 last year, on a career-best 6.1 yards per touch. Turns out, putting a Hall Of Fame RB in the same backfield as Lamar Jackson is going to work. Nothing about the Ravens offense has changed, aside from naturally regression putting the Ravens touchdown expectation this season 6-8 touchdowns short of last year's elite season. If he holds his 95% share of team carries inside the 5-yard line from last year, then how does he fail in this offense? I'm not sure. He was the 3rd overall player in half PPR points over replacement last year, so this ADP and ranking have a bunch of regression and age concerns priced in to some degree.

15. WR9 Drake London (ADP: 15.9): The final 8 games of the year were London's full breakout. He averaged 11.0 targets and 90 YPG, including 13.0 targets and 117 YPG in those 3 Michael Penix starts. I'd be skeptical in carrying that small sample into this year, as the Falcons were 2-6 over this stretch on a -39 point differential (which explains the increased targets). But at the same time, London is an all-around stud. His catch radius is among the best in the NFL, and he cooked in the slot with great short-area route running. The coaching staff saw the same thing and granted him with a career-high 39% slot rate after being at 24% over his first two years. If Penix has the Jay Cutler or Jameis Winston play style that he showed in college and a rookie, then we could see some wild games from Atlanta this year.

16. WR10 A.J. Brown (ADP: 17.6): Last year was a bust for no reason other than the Eagles' defense and rushing offense were too dominant. After AJB return in Week 6, those units were 1st and 1st in EPA per play, leading to consistent huge leads and the 29th-most passing yards on the lowest pass attempts in the NFL. Brown himself was the WR36 in expected half PPR points and would've been lower in Full PPR. If that happens again, there's pretty much no way Brown can be a fantasy WR1 over the course of the season. But if there are metrics that can regress year-to-year, they are usually on defense and on the ground. Brown was the WR3 overall in yards per route still. Here's to hoping Jalen Hurts doesn't complete just 47 passes while trailing over 14 games again.

17. TE1 Brock Bowers (ADP: 19.0): This was easily the best rookie TE season of all time. Bowers had 26 more receptions and 118 more yards than the all-time rookie TE2 seasons, so there's no need to debate how good he is. It's all just the environment to break down now. The Raiders were 4th in completions and 13th in receiving yards last year because they were always trailing and had check-down QBs, so I don't want to double count the Geno Smith upgrade at QB, as the Raiders will pass less-often and more downfield with Geno at QB and Chip Kelly at OC. In other words, it'll be difficult for Bowers to average 9.0 targets per game, but I can see more than 5 TDs and a 7.8 yards per target this year. Perhaps a lot more.

18. WR11 Tee Higgins (ADP: 25.1): Last year's Bengals had a 63% neutral pass rate. The next closest? 57%. And that doesn't include a chunk of the plays where Cincy was trailing because their awful defense. Long story short, there's more than room for two here with Joe Burrow on this 53-man roster. Higgins was the WR4 overall in expected half PPR points, and we know Higgins is an above-average receiver in all efficiency metrics. The floor is really high at this point, and Higgins has something that nobody at this turn has in Round 2: contingent-based upside. Where would you draft Higgins if Ja'Marr Chase missed a bunch of time? Top 10 overall.

19. RB9 Ashton Jeanty (ADP: 12.2): If we're slightly concerned with the insane volume from Saquon and Henry last year, then we need to carry that over to Jeanty (397 touches), who also had to go through the tiring pre-draft process during the offseason. Jeanty was the best rushing prospect since Saquon Barkely to me, however, so we're expecting greatness right away. He'll have to overcome a slightly below-average OL (20th in run block grade) and Vegas' projected 27th-ranked scoring offense to live up to his 1st-round fantasy ADP, but that's within his range based on everything about his prospect profile, the lack of depth in the Raiders' backfield, the underrated nature of Geno Smith, and the addition of OC Chip Kelly.

20. RB10 Jonathan Taylor (ADP: 20.8): Was his 2024 the quietest 102.2 rushing YPG season in recent memory? It makes some sense given his career lows in receiving (18-136-1), but whew did he take off down the stretch. Taylor averaged 30.2 opportunities after the calendar turned to December, which only a few RBs across the league can realistically see over a month's stretch. In fact, JT had the 2nd-most expected half PPR points per game based on his usage over the course of the year, leading to a RB5 overall per-game finish. It's possible his receiving slightly ticks up if Daniel Jones starts most of the season, but at the same time, he doesn't have to go nuts there if he can stay healthy on this humongous rushing volume.

21. RB11 Josh Jacobs (ADP: 24.9): After "he's washed" allegations, Jacobs revitalized his career in a much-better environment with the Packers last year. He was half PPR's RB6 per-game on RB8 usage, averaging a cool 18.1 half PPR points over his 14 healthy games with Jordan Love. That's more than Bijan, Taylor, and Achane for what it's worth. I don't see any reason to change the expectation this year, aside from Marshawn Lloyd potentially getting it together in his 2nd season. But why would Green Bay go away from NextGenStat's RB3 in rush yards over expected rate? The fantasy community needs to answer that for me.

22. RB12 Chase Brown (ADP: 23.1): Zack Moss's season-ending neck injury in Week 8 sent Brown to the moon, though he was headed at least towards the atmosphere in the weeks leading up to that. He averaged 14.3 touches per game in Weeks 6-8 with Moss, then 23.6 touches for the rest of the season. The 18.3 half PPR points over that stretch was equivalent to RB5 per-game numbers, only behind Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs, and Jacobs. Cincy probably doesn't want to expose him to that many touches and snaps (85%) again, but there's only cut-candidate Moss ($1.75M guaranteed), Samaje Perine ($400k guaranteed), and Tahj Brooks (6th-rounder) to compete with. A slightly lower role is somewhat baked into this price, but he can't lose more than 5 touches per game. Perine stealing any passing down work or Moss stealing any goal line work are the primary threats (but aren't that threatening).

23. TE2 Trey McBride (ADP: 26.4): After coming back from a minor injury in Week 4, McBride averaged 79 YPG on 9.7 targets per game... and nothing has really changed around him. It's the same QB, HC, OC, OL, and target competition, and that 13-game stint that I just referenced was during a very sustainable 7-6 record from the Cardinals. Perhaps Marvin Harrison takes such a big year two leap that McBride is impacted, but he's a simply more creative YAC player who should still dominate targets underneath. To me, it's more likely that McBride's volume stays relatively the same but his touchdowns positively regress. Nobody ran worse with scores last year (2 receiving touchdowns versus 9.0 expected receiving touchdowns).

24. RB13 Bucky Irving (ADP: 22.1): There are Day 3 success stories at RB that can find enough volume to matter right away, but rarely do they actually play like some of the best backs in the league right away. Among all RBs with more than 125 carries, Irving's 3.9 yards after contact was the RB1 overall. He runs hard for his size and is a loose athlete in space, which he was afforded plenty of behind one of the best (and entirely returning) OL's in the league. Those traits led to averaging 18.4 half PPR points over his final 8 games on a crazy-high 5.7 YPC. The Bucs under OC Liam Coen were a machine in the designed pass game, where Irving caught 50-of-53 targets including 25 screens. Sometimes these rookie-year success stories from smaller backs (199 pounds) result in a rug pull the following year, but Irving did look like someone who will matter for awhile. Hopefully the loss of Coen doesn't hurt all that much, though only the Lions are projected for a bigger drop in points than the Bucs according to the betting markets.

25. WR12 Ladd McConkey (ADP: 18.7): Including that crazy Wild Card game, McConkey was NFL's WR4 overall in yards per route despite being an early 2nd-round rookie. His film was exceptional, too. He doesn't get the credit he deserves for causing CB panic attacks in man coverage, and McConkey's awareness and YAC ability against zone is equally great. He was the best rookie WR on film and per-route last year. He has some Antonio Brown abilities if I may. Perhaps the most underrated part of his profile is the Chargers quietly reaching the top-10 in neutral pass rate last year, even with notorious OC Greg Roman calling plays. They knew what they had with Justin Herbert and McConkey, and they leaned into it. Over his final 11 games, the rookie averaged 98 YPG on 7.9 targets. That will come down some with two new RBs in the mix, but McConkey needs to be treated with respect. Those responding to my tweet here weren't. Their loss.

26. QB1 Lamar Jackson (ADP: 31.1): In last year's MVP-caliber campaign, Lamar finished with 8.2 more fantasy points per game than the QB12. The QB1 overall's average points over replacement in previous seasons were 5.6, 8.5, 5.6, and 6.9, so what Lamar accomplished last year was special stuff. In fact, 30% of teams with Lamar last year came in 1st or 2nd place during the regular season, when the baseline for that metric is only 16.7%. The three primary reasons for his explosive season were 1) OC Todd Monken calling a better-schemed and more pass-heavy game plan in his first year calling plays, 2) the addition of Derrick Henry open throwing lanes, and 3) Lamar just getting more comfortable within the pocket. Nothing's changed off that, so I'll take this full round discount from last year's 24th overall per-game finish. He's at the very top of his game right now and has the momentary QB crown until Mahomes brings the deep ball back in my opinion.

27. WR13 Tyreek Hill (ADP: 21.7): Admittedly, I was completely out on Hill to begin this offseason. Vibes were awful. Since then, Hill has at least stayed out of trouble and been in the building, he's running 10.10 100m dashes for fun, and the Dolphins made a huge move to boost Hill's projected targets. In Weeks 8-16, Hill's target share dipped to 20% while Jonnu nearly matched him 1-to-1. That's no longer a threat, and when this offense is condensed, Hill has been an elite WR1. The complete downside risk remains--older player who dipped and has off-field chaos constantly, while also being at the mercy of an oft-injured QB--but the upside case is so obvious, and I'm taking this trade as an indication that they feel better about Tyreek than they did a few months ago. Can I say "I love him in best ball" again? He's the WR3 overall in this "upside" metric:

28. QB2 Josh Allen (ADP: 30.1): The Bills project for the most points in the NFL per the betting markets, and Allen's 37% share of inside the 5-yard line carries means he's soaking up a huge chunk of that offense's fantasy points. He finished as the QB2 and 30th overall player last year. The 29-year-old still has his body under him, while his football brain is entering it's prime. This should be a near repeat of his MVP season, especially because the Bills' entire OL returns. If you want to play it safe in a mediocre Round 3, then go elite QB. And that doesn't mean he doesn't have a ceiling, as Allen's Week 14 game last year was the 13th best half PPR performance since 1962, regardless of position.

29. RB14 Omarion Hampton (ADP: 32.3): Coming soon!

30. QB3 Jayden Daniels (ADP: 39.8): Coming soon!

31. RB15 Breece Hall (ADP: 34.6): Coming soon!

32. WR14 Garrett Wilson (ADP: 28.7): Coming soon!

33. WR15 Xavier Worthy (ADP: 41.3): Coming soon!

34. RB16 Kenneth Walker (ADP: 49.9): Coming soon!

35. RB17 James Cook (ADP: 44.8): Coming soon!

36. WR16 Mike Evans (ADP: 36.3): Coming soon!