Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
1. Josh Allen - Bills vs. DAL (26.5, -2.5)
2. Lamar Jackson - Ravens at JAX (23.5, -3.5)
This is a pass funnel Jaguars defense missing underrated S Andre Cisco and CB Tyson Campbell, and the Ravens' skill group is narrowing. Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham are lapping Rashod Bateman (keep running on your post routes!) and Devin Duvernay is on IR. Isiah Likely is stepping in for Mark Andrews (IR). Keaton Mitchell has largely stolen Justice Hill's snaps, with Gus Edwards as the goal line back. That makes it easier to stack Lamar.
3. Brock Purdy - 49ers at ARI (30.75, -13.5)
This is an eruption spot in every way. The Cardinals defense lacks talent, especially with starters DT Leki Fotu and LB Kyzir White on IR.
4. Dak Prescott - Cowboys at BUF (24.0, +2.5)
It's been a while since I've reminded the fine readers of The Blueprint, but the Bills are missing CB Tre'Davious White, LB Matt Milano, DT DaQuan Jones, and potentially CB Kair Elam, EDGE A.J. Epenesa, and S Micah Hyde. This has the recipe for a vintage shootout.
5. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. WAS (27.75, -6.5)
The Commanders are a total mess without EDGE Chase Young, EDGE Montez Sweat, and now LB Jamin Davis (IR). Stafford was a treat to watch last week, so it's no surprise the Rams have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
6. Jalen Hurts - Eagles at SEA (25.75, -4.0)
He's questionable with an illness. Make sure you have Marcus Mariota as a backup.
7. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs at NE (23.25, -9.5)
The WRs stink and veteran LT Donovan Smith (neck) isn't playing.
8. Justin Fields - Bears at CLE (16.75, +3.5)
The Browns just placed CB Grant Delpit and DT Maurice Hurst on IR and are likely without S Juan Thornhill, EDGE Ogbo Okoronkwo, and DT Jordan Elliott, but star CB Denzel Ward (limited) could return and DPOY favorite Myles Garrett had a season-high 3 QB hits last week while playing through his own injury. This is a potentially scary spot for Fields, who is playing better ball right now, but can't afford to have a downgraded D.J. Moore (DNP).
9. Jordan Love - Packers vs. TB (22.25, -3.5)
It's possible RB Aaron Jones (limited) returns, but WR Christian Watson (DNP), WR Dontayvion Wicks (DNP), RB AJ Dillon (DNP), and TE Luke Musgrave (IR) are injured. The Bucs are just as injured, however. CB Carlton Davis, DT Vita Vea, EDGE William Gholston, LB Devin White, and S Ryan Neal didn't practice.
10. Jared Goff - Lions vs. DEN (26.25, -5.0)
The Lions have OG Halapoulivaati Vaitai on IR, LT Taylor Decker (back) hasn't practiced this week, and C Frank Ragnow (limited) didn't play last week. That partially explains the Lions' flop in Chicago last week. Back at home, the Lions have a get-right spot with an improved Broncos defense, one that could be without starters LB Nik Bonitto and S P.J. Locke. They've been exposed over the middle all year.
11. Russell Wilson - Broncos at DET (21.25, +5.0)
What if TE Greg Dulcich (coming off IR) is the guy you need? (Impossible). Meanwhile, the Lions placed underrated DT Alim McNeill on IR, which likely tanks their entire run defense. Versatile DB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (IR) has been cleared to practice but may need another week to get acclimated.
12. Sam Howell - Commanders at LAR (21.25, +6.5)
13. Kyler Murray - Cardinals vs. SF (17.25, +13.5)
14. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. BAL (20.0, +3.5)
Jacksonville recently placed WR Christian Kirk and OT Cam Robinson on IR, and OG Ezra Cleveland and OT Walker Little were limited on Wednesday. Lawrence may have to get the ball out quickly again with Baltimore's fierce pass rush waiting. The Ravens' chase-and-tackle slot CB/S Kyle Hamilton (knee) left with a serious injury last week.
15. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. NYJ (23.75, -8.5)
Highly-graded C Connor Williams was just placed on IR, and LT Terron Armstead (knee, ankle), OG Liam Eichenberg (calf), OG Robert Hunt (hamstring), and RB De'Von Achane didn't practice on Wednesday. Throw in 20 MPH winds, and this offense could look different against one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. Tyreek is out.
16. Gardner Minshew - Colts vs. PIT (22.25, -2.5)
RT Braden Smith (knee) missed last week and hasn't practiced.
17. Jake Browning - Bengals vs. MIN (21.5, -3.5)
Browning had a cramp last week but suddenly pops up with a right forearm injury (full). We'll also monitor Ja'Marr Chase (DNP-limited) throughout the week.
18. Joe Flacco - Browns vs. CHI (20.25, -3.5)
The Bears defense is playing well with new EDGE Montez Sweat, but EDGE Yannick Ngakoue was just placed on IR. That'll help Flacco's largely backup OL. The Browns have OT Dawand Jones, OT Jedrick Wills, and OT Jack Conklin on IR, and C Ethan Pocic (DNP Wednesday) left last week with a neck stinger.
19. Baker Mayfield - Bucs at GB (19.25, +3.5)
We'll monitor if Chris Godwin (DNPx2) and Packers S Darnell Savage (DNPx2) can play.
20. Will Levis - Titans vs. HOU (20.25, -2.5)
It's a good time to face the injured Texans. Their offense is completely tanked, but rookie star EDGE Will Anderson (DNP), LB Blake Cashman (DNP), and CB Tavierre Thomas (DNP) are also injured on defense. Hopefully Will Levis' ankle injury (limited) isn't very serious.
21. Desmond Ridder - Falcons at CAR (19.0, -3.0)
The Falcons OL is going through it right now. LT Jake Matthews (left Week 14), RT Kaleb McGary (missed Week 14), and elite OG Chris Lindstrom (left Week 14) didn't practice on Wednesday, and C Drew Dalman (missed Week 14) was limited.
22. Drew Lock - Seahawks vs. PHI (21.75, +4.0)
Seattle finally has both of their OTs back to full snaps, and this is a spot to sling the ball. The Eagles are swapping LB Nakobe Dean (IR) for recently signed LB Shaq Leonard up the middle, where they've been picked apart all year. Geno Smith (groin) seems unlikely to play.
23. Derek Carr - Saints vs. NYG (21.75, -6.0)
Chris Olave being out is a huge deal, and RT Ryan Ramczyk (limited-DNP) is questionable.
24. Tommy DeVito - Giants at NO (15.75, +6.0)
Mr. Cutlets faces a feisty Saints defense but one without S Marcus Maye (IR), CB Marshon Lattimore (IR), DT Malcolm Roach (IR), and EDGE Isaiah Foskey (DNP). Meanwhile, star LT Andrew Thomas has played well recently and TE Darren Waller might make his debut off injured reserve. Things are looking up!
25. Zach Wilson - Jets at MIA (14.75, +8.5)
The Dolphins are well coached on defense, but they just placed EDGE Jaelan Phillips and LB Jerome Baker on IR just as they returned CB Jalen Ramsey. Meanwhile, the Jets OL problems are rampant. C Wes Schweitzer, C Connor McGovern, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, and TE C.J. Uzomah are on IR, with other key starters popping up as limited participants. Pay attention to the weather (read: wind) here, though the Jets largely have a check-down offense right now.
26. Mitch Trubisky - Steelers at IND (19.75, +2.5)
LG Isaac Seumalo (shoulder) hasn't practiced, and Colts CB JuJu Brents (full) is expected to return to the starting lineup. We'll see if Diontae Johnson (knee/tilted) wants to play.
27. Bryce Young - Panthers vs. ATL (16.0, +3.0)
The Falcons, notably without star DT Grady Jarrett (IR), had one (1) pressure last week, but the Panthers have their own issues on the OL. OG Chandler Zavala, OG Austin Corbett, and OG Brady Christensen are on IR. OG Justin McCray left last week and was a DNP Wednesday. Other OL have been released. Their former 1st-round OT is a mess. Other than that, wheels up!
28. Aidan O'Connell - Raiders vs. LAC (18.5, -3.0)
The Chargers are without EDGE Joey Bosa and traded CB J.C. Jackson, but the Raiders are considering QB changes after being shutout last week. Starters LT Kolton Miller and C Andre James are both out, as is Josh Jacobs. It's a total mess.
29. Nick Mullens - Vikings at CIN (18.0, +3.5)
Justin Jefferson (limited), Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson are healthy, but RT Brian O'Neill (ankle) hasn't practiced and LG Dalton Risner (ankle) is limited. At least the struggling Bengals have outside CB Cam Taylor-Britt on IR.
30. Easton Stick - Chargers at LV (15.5, +3.0)
The Chargers are only missing QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and C Corey Linsley right now. No big deal. It'll be Stick's sneaky athleticism on Thursday Night Football. It's bleak.
31. Case Keenum - Texans at TEN (17.75, +2.5)
CJ Stroud (concussion) hasn't practiced and will very likely miss this week, but it gets worse. WR Nico Collins (DNP), RT George Fant (DNP), WR Tank Dell (IR), and OG Tytus Howard (IR) are all hurt. Keep in mind the offensive line was already without C Jarrett Patterson, OG Kendrick Green, OG Kenyon Green, and C Scott Quessenberry. At least TE Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is trending towards a return, and the Titans have their own defensive issues. DT Jeffery Simmons (DNP), CB Kristian Fulton (IR), S Kevin Byard (traded), and DT Kyle Peko (IR) aren't available.
32. Bailey Zappe - Patriots vs. KC (13.75, +9.5)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The Cardinals are 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs, and the 49ers have the highest team total (by far) this week. 88.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Kyren Williams - He's the RB1 on RB1 usage this month, and now the Rams have the 2nd-highest team total on the week against the Commanders, who are 25th against fantasy RBs. Stafford is playing exceptional ball, and Kyren's ball knowing and physicality are a perfect fit. 81.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - With the Post-Bye Rookie Bump behind him, Bijan inherited the goal-line role last week while seeing 3 inside the 5-yard line opportunities. The Panthers have allowed the most total TDs to fantasy RBs (20). 69.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - The Dolphins view Mostert as the early-down 1a, while De'Von Achane is the manufactured home run threat and two-minute drill back. Mostert had 18.1 expected half PPR points in last week's close loss. Achane, 14.2. Both remain capable of a big play and a few receptions, but Mostert is the touch favorite for now. It's worth noting the Dolphins only project for 23.0 points this week against the Jets, the 4th-best rushing success rate unit. Apparently there could be heavy wind in this one. That at least would help.
Rachaad White - He's the RB7 on RB10 usage this month, and the Packers are 10th-worst against fantasy RBs. The Bucs' have been more RB-focused recently, too, ranking 27th in neutral pass rate this month. 61.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - Jamaal Williams split work almost evenly out of nowhere last week, resulting in just 13.0 expected half PPR points for Kamara. He was still the clear 1a in targets and red zone work, however, and the Saints project for an above-average 22.0 points against the Giants. New York is 7th-worst against fantasy RBs. 65.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley - Across the season, he's averaging 15.4 half PPR points on 16.3 expected half PPR points as a boom-bust RB1. Tommy DeVito is playing well, but the Giants still project for just 16.0 points in New Orleans. The Saints are 10th-best against fantasy RBs on the 7th-best rushing success rate.
Travis Etienne - It's been an inconsistent season for Etienne and the Jaguars' ground game, but he's averaging 29.5 receiving yards per game. Those targets will be key with the Ravens' only allowing 5 RB TD all season long. A lower-than-normal team total (19.75 points) awaits Jacksonville on the road. 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Zack Moss - It's almost impossible to score as few points as Moss has with his gigantic workload this month. He's had 20.2 and 23.3 expected half PPR points, yet scored 6.7 and 7.6 actual half PPR points. It's possible he's losing steam. It's more likely that this was full-blown awful luck, as this offense has supported elite RB1 finishes throughout the year. Moss isn't in danger of losing work to Trey Sermon (sadly), so let's go back to the well here with perhaps more reasonable low-end RB1 expectations. The Steelers are 19th against fantasy RBs. 89.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - The Big Dog vs. Texans. A fantasy masterpiece usually. Henry is the RB14 on RB26 usage this month, averaging 14.5 half PPR points since the bye with Will Levis. Houston was diced up by Breece Hall through the air last week but are 6th in rushing EPA allowed across the season. This isn't the old Texans defense. This also isn't a super old version of Henry. He still looks really damn good on tape.
James Cook - Under OC Joe Brady, Cook is dominating. He's the RB6 on RB19 usage this month with more targets coming his way. The Bills have the 3rd-highest team total on the week, so the Cowboys would-be daunting matchup feels less daunting. Cook hasn't needed the goal line role to be an upside RB2. The increased target rate has him covered, and I wouldn't be surprised if getting the ball out underneath wasn't a Brady coaching point for Josh Allen. 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - Continuing to underperform all models, Pollard finally seeded a goal-line opportunity to the bigger Rico Dowdle last week. Still, the Cowboys are playing so well that Pollard finished with 19.0 expected half PPR points. He's not trusted but the upside is obvious in this offense. Rachaad White, Joe Mixon, Javonte Williams, and Breece Hall have 14+ half PPR points in recent games against the Bills' injured defense. 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - It's been a Linsanity run for the Bengals recently, but this is a tough task in Week 15. The Vikings are an inexperienced QB's worst nightmare thanks to DC Brian Flores, and opposing RBs have also had it bad. Minnesota is 4th-best against fantasy RBs with teams opting to pass against them at top-5 rates. Despite Mixon being the RB4 on RB3 usage this month, this is a fade spot. Rookie Chase Brown has been playing more since returning from injury. 90.5 total yards in Pick'em is something I'll explore lowers on.
David Montgomery - He's been somewhat phased out of games in two of the last three weeks, but the Lions are 4-point home favorites against the Broncos, who are the worst fantasy RB defense and just allowed Ekeler to hang 18.5 half PPR points last week. Monty is the RB15 on RB31 usage this month despite the inconsistent game scripts. Detroit's 4th-highest team total of the week helps Monty's very high TD odds. 76.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - The Broncos have allowed the 6th-most RB receptions and have been lit up by space backs like Gibbs, who is the RB12 on RB16 usage this month. Last week, Gibbs had a drop but took advantage of wide open rushing lanes for chunk gains. 79.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Breece Hall - This is about as high as you can rank a RB on a team projected for 14.5 points, the 2nd-lowest team total on the week. Hall broke loose repeatedly last week as a receiver, but the Dolphins have allowed the 6th-fewest RB receptions this year. Hall had 25 scoreless rushing yards and 24 receiving yards against Miami three games ago. 42.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Javonte Williams - The RB25 on RB11 usage this month. 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ezekiel Elliott - He had 20.7 expected half PPR points in his first start without Rhamondre Stevenson, who had 15.9 and 15.5 expected half PPR points in his previous starts. This is a PPR-scamming role for the ages with Bailey Zappe. That said, the Patriots are projected for 13.75 points in Kansas City. 52.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - Carolina's offense has changed under new management. They're now 32nd in neutral pass rate (38%), while committing to more power runs on the backs of Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Hubbard is the RB21 on RB23 usage this month despite the offense scoring 6, 18, 10, and 10 points over that span. 60.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Aaron Jones (Questionable) - He's played just five healthy games this year. The veteran has averaged 13.0 half PPR points on 14.2 expected half PPR points in them, essentially RB2 numbers. It's possible Jones isn't the same player coming off another injury in his age-28 season, especially after limited practices all week, but AJ Dillon (broken thumb) isn't an option.
De'Von Achane (Questionable) - He hasn't practiced with a new toe injury, and Darrynton Evans was called up from the practice squad. See RB10 Raheem Mostert.
Austin Ekeler - The RB26 on RB7 usage this month. 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - I've been lower on Swift recently -- he's the RB36 on RB35 usage this month -- but this is a decent spot for him. The Eagles are back to 25.75 projected points, and the Seahawks are 5th-worst against fantasy RBs. If Swift can be more disciplined hitting the hole, there are big plays waiting. LB Bobby Wagner and S Jamal Adams are struggling.
Antonio Gibson - After Brian Robinson (hamstring) left in Week 13, Gibson played 72% of the snaps en route to 10.5 expected half PPR points in negative script. Robinson was averaging 11.0 expected half PPR points as the starter this season, so similar to where Gibson finished as the fill-in. Gibson will be joined by inexperienced Day 3 rookie Chris Rodriguez (53 career snaps) in Week 15 when the Commanders project for a league-average 21.5 points against the Rams.
Ty Chandler - This assumes Alexander Mattison (ankle) is out after not practicing Wednesday. Chandler has a bellcow profile if we ignore his constant mistakes, but the Vikings don't have many other options, as Kene Nwangwu is a core special teamer and largely passing-down only RB. While splitting time with Chandler, Mattison was the RB33 in usage this month. Removing Josh Dobbs from the offense helps Chandler out as a receiver and goal line option, too.
Kenneth Walker - In his last two healthy games, Walker has 14.3 and 9.9 expected half PPR points while losing real work to Post-Bye Rookie Bump Zach Charbonnet. Walker has to be a big play threat to be an RB2, and the odds are stacked against him in Week 15. The Eagles have allowed the 2nd-fewest TDs to RBs on the 4th-fewest carries.
James Conner - Since playing with Kyler, Conner is averaging 10.6 half PPR points on 13.8 expected half PPR points as an upside RB3 in positive game script. One big issue: the 49ers are 13.5-point favorites as the league's best fantasy RB defense. 51.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Jerome Ford - He's the RB27 on RB27 usage this month, while the Browns have passed more under Joe Flacco (3rd in neutral pass rate). Ford is a capable receiver and explosive runner, but Hunt had the goal line opportunity last week once again. The Bears defense as a whole is improved, though they have allowed a 46% rushing success rate in the last three weeks (28th). 46.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Najee Harris - The Colts are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs, and the Steelers are 4th in neutral run rate right now. Harris certainly will get his chances on the ground, but this offense was a mess with Mitch Trubisky and some touches are going Jaylen Warren's way. Over the last month, Harris is the RB29 in usage. Warren, RB32. 52.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Warren - See RB31 Najee Harris.
Keaton Mitchell - He's playing more and definitely looks good on his touches, but Mitchell remains stuck in a low volume role. He's had under 7.0 expected half PPR points in every game while losing valuable goal line touches to Gus Edwards. He's also still learning pass protection, so slow growth is expected down the stretch. Mitchell is a boom-bust flex at most (for now). He's the RB35 on RB49 usage this month. 56.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB39 Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Zamir White - Josh Jacobs (quad) is out. White is a 2nd-year power back (6'0" and 215 pounds) with just 3.4 yards per carry on his 37 career carries. He'll be complemented by Ameer Abdullah on passing downs and potentially Brandon Bolden on the ground in a likely committee. The Raiders only project for 18.5 points after being shut out last week, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Raiders passed more often against a sad Chargers pass defense. Perhaps the Raiders are desperate for a White evaluation with Jacobs headed for 2024 free agency.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - The Chiefs want him to win this job, especially on the ground. He played more snaps, saw more touches, and had more usage (8.8 expected half PPR points) than Jerick McKinnon (7.0), but it was McKinnon who scored the TD. It wasn't a goal line look, however, so it's still possible CEH can fall into the end zone while Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) misses time. This is a bad matchup for CEH against the Patriots, the best defense in both rushing EPA and rushing success rate allowed this season.
Devin Singletary - A competition is brewing the Texans backfield, as Singletary has gone from 15.6 to 5.6 back to 12.7 expected half PPR points since Dameon Pierce re-entered the mix. It's a tough spot with CJ Stroud (concussion) not practicing, and the Titans DL providing advantages over an injured Texans OL.
D'Onta Foreman - He was the clear starter in Week 14, seeing 8.9 expected half PPR points as the early-down rusher. Khalil Herbert is involved still, however, and the Bears only project for 16.75 points in Cleveland.
Gus Edwards - The goal line TDs haven't been there this month, so Gus Bus has dropped to RB34 on RB38 usage this month. Edwards is losing some early-down work to the more explosive Mitchell, making him even more TD reliant. Jacksonville sells out to stop the run, ranking 2nd in rushing success rate allowed. 36.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Kareem Hunt - See RB28 Jerome Ford.
Zach Charbonnet - He's had 7.9 and 5.8 expected half PPR points in his last two games with a healthy Kenneth Walker.
Chase Brown - See RB19 Joe Mixon.
Rico Dowdle - See RB9 Tony Pollard.
Miles Sanders - See RB19 Chuba Hubbard.
Tyjae Spears - See RB10 Derrick Henry.
Tyler Allgeier - See RB3 Bijan Robinson.
Dameon Pierce - See RB35 Devin Singletary.
Jamaal Williams - See RB5 Alvin Kamara.
Kenneth Gainwell - See RB21 D'Andre Swift.
Khalil Herbert - See RB36 D'Onta Foreman.
CeeDee Lamb - He's the WR1 overall in usage this month with the Cowboys 2nd in neutral pass rate and 2nd in WR fantasy usage. The Bills are 13th against fantasy WRs and could be without S Micah Hyde this week. Dallas vs. Buffalo has high shootout odds. 88.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Jefferson - I was low on Jefferson last week because Josh Dobbs was more prone to run around, but Nick Mullens is better suited to lock onto Jefferson without any scrambling. Jefferson fully practiced on Thursday, and we shouldn't hold last week's fluke injury against him here. Since Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt went on IR, lesser talents have had good games against Cincy: Parker Washington (15.1 half PPR), Zay Jones (10.3), Odell Beckham (13.6), and Nelson Agholor (10.2). Let's buy the damn dip while we can. 77.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Deebo Samuel - He's the WR2 on WR23 usage this month, while looking fully healthy. The 49ers are 10th in neutral pass rate right now, and Deebo gets some carries in the red zone still. This is a complete eruption spot with San Francisco projected for 30.75 points (1st) against an injured Cardinals defense. 77.5 total yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - The Seahawks have talent in the secondary, but it hasn't gelled. They're 27th against fantasy WRs, with 10 WR games of over 14.9 half PPR allowed. It's a rare buy low spot for Brown, too. He's only the WR27 on WR8 usage this month as a historical model breaker. 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - This is an aggressive ranking. Stafford is also playing out of his damn mind right now, and the Rams have the 2nd-highest team total of the week against the ghost of the Commanders defense. They're 31st against fantasy WRs on the league's worst passing EPA. Kupp made some contested catches and had some yards after the catch last week in sloppier conditions. 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - He's the WR15 on WR15 usage this month. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - The RBs being healthy, the OL adding injuries, and some poor Goff games have hurt the Sun God this month. He's only the WR12 on WR7 usage right now, but things look far better this week. The Lions are projected for 26.25 points (5th highest) while at home. Elite CB Pat Surtain has played 3% of his snaps in the slot this year, and the Broncos are missing a linebacker and potentially a safety this week. Buy low. 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - He hasn't hit 14.0 expected half PPR since Week 7 with the RBs and TEs getting more involved in the offense, but the Bills have the 3rd-highest team total of the week against an up-and-down Cowboys passing defense. 8 different WRs have had more than 50+ receiving yards in Dallas' last 4 games, including a 6-134-3 receiving line from DK. 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - The Cardinals are 31st in passing EPA allowed, and Aiyuk had 6-148-0 receiving line against them in Week 4. 66.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - Up to the WR9 on WR3 usage this month, Pittman has RPO'd teams to death with Indy oddly up to 1st in neutral pass rate. It's possible Zack Moss's recent busts and their sliding defense are forcing underrated play-caller Shane Steichen to throw more than usual, even against the Steelers' borderline top-12 defense. Pittsburgh has allowed just two WRs to reach 12.0 half PPR points since Week 4. 74.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - Tyreek Hill is out. Waddle is the WR28 on WR29 usage this month, and this matchup works against him in every way. CB Sauce Gardner, wind, injured OL, and a lower-than-normal Dolphins team total. That said, Waddle is always one YAC play away from crushing.
Mike Evans - He's the WR7 on WR6 usage this month, but this is a downgraded matchup in Green Bay. The Packers are 5th against fantasy WRs on the lowest neutral pass rate allowed. That said, Chris Godwin (knee) is on the injury report. 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - He's the WR14 on WR33 usage this month, while playing with distributor Jake Browning. Chase is on the injury report (DNP-limited) with an ankle injury right now, but the Bengals will need him against this unique Brian Flores defense that brings the heat. Minnesota faces the the 6th-highest neutral pass rate with an increase in WR screens. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - Dog. 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
D.J. Moore - He's been DNP-limited-full in practice with an ankle injury, and the matchup is brutal in Cleveland. The Browns are dealing with their own injuries, but CB1 Denzel Ward is due back and they have the highest sack rate in the NFL (where Fields can be exposed). Only 5 WRs have over 13.5 half PPR against the Browns. This is basically as low as I can rank a player who is the WR6 on WR5 usage this month. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - He's the WR8 on WR17 usage this month, and the Eagles are 32nd against fantasy WRs with big dawgs Michael Gallup (3-48-1), Deebo Samuel (4-116-2), and Gabe Davis (6-105-1) recently popping off. Geno Smith was at least limited on Thursday. 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - He's a total stud right now, sitting at WR18 on WR26 usage in a suddenly more pass heavy offense. The Broncos are 4th in neutral pass rate this month and face a disastrous Lions defense in a dome. Detroit is 26th in passing EPA allowed and 23rd against fantasy WRs. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jayden Reed (Questionable) - No Christian Watson helps, as long as Reed's ankle injury (limited x2) isn't an actual problem. Reed is getting schemed up at elite rates and is capable of winning downfield when asked to do so. The Bucs are 25th against fantasy WRs, 28th in passing EPA, and are missing plus-starters at all three levels of the defense, including CB Carlton Davis.
Rashee Rice - We're cooking. The Post-Bye Rookie Bump candidate jumped to 82% routes in Week 14, simply out of Chiefs desperation. Rice is the WR16 on WR20 usage this month despite Kansas City looking mortal on offense. A date with New England is scary on the surface, but they're actually a tiny pass funnel without elite CB1 play. I also don't think Belichick would double Rice here like he's done with other top WRs. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeAndre Hopkins - He's the WR21 on WR11 usage as a boom-bust WR2 attached to Full Send Will Levis. This is a revenge game, one against a beat up Texans defense missing EDGE Will Anderson and CB Tavierre Thomas. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amari Cooper - Joe Flacco is ripping downfield shots, and the Browns are 3rd in neutral pass rate this month. In his return from concussion, Cooper had 15.8 expected half PPR points (WR1-2 usage). Chicago is improved on defense but is 27th in passing EPA allowed throughout the season. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Garrett Wilson - He's the WR29 on WR10 usage this month, but things are so much better with Zach Wilson compared to Timmy The Big Boyle Doyle. In fact, Wilson is averaging a strong 14.7 expected half PPR points in his last 8 games with Wilson, leading to 10.9 actual half PPR points. Things could get dicey if the windy conditions hold. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - It'll be hard for his WR10 on WR13 usage from this month to stick with Dallas Goedert back, but Smith is in a good spot against Seattle's 6th-worst fantasy WR defense. After a few down weeks, Philly has the 6th-highest team total of the week. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - He's the WR21 on WR30 usage this month, while taking advantage of more looks sans Mark Andrews. Flowers is still mistake prone. He's also created big plays. The Jaguars pass funnel could be missing underrated S Andre Cisco and CB Tyson Campbell. This is a great spot. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - It's been an up-and-down season, and Ridley currently checks in as the WR25 on WR10 usage. No Christian Kirk could help scheme up more underneath routes for Ridley, but things will be tight against Baltimore's No. 7 fantasy WR defense. Offenses are opting to run against the Ravens at the 9th-highest rate in neutral situations, something that could help Lawrence's ankle. 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - Rain and 15 MPH winds are expected, but damn is he good. It's possible the Falcons pass more in Week 15 because their run-first OL is all hurt. 54.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - He's the WR32 on WR45 usage this month, but this is great home matchup against the worst fantasy WR defense in likely negative game script. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - He's the WR34 on WR48 usage this month and should get more looks without Christian Watson and perhaps Dontayvion Wicks. The Bucs' pass-funnel defense is missing CB1 Carlton Davis and others. This is a spike week spot for the alpha-attituded TD machine.
Brandin Cooks - He's the WR19 on WR40 usage this month as the Cowboys secondary deep threat. Cooks nearly scored on a post route last week (tackled at the 1-yard line) and even had a goal-line fade on the next play (incomplete). He's an upside option with the Cowboys 6th in projected points as road dogs. 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - It's a roller coaster here, but Big Gabe has 5 games of 50+ yards and a TD this season. I like his odds of a spike week at home in a potential shootout with the Cowboys offense cooking on the other side. Even with more 2-TE sets last week, Gabe ran 44 routes (85%). 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Odell Beckham - He's building a rapport with Lamar on tape, and there are fewer options to throw the ball to now, helping raise his usage to WR32 levels. Despite the injury history and age, Odell can still move fairly well. This is a great matchup to fade the haters. Jacksonville is a pass funnel and injured in the secondary. 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Palmer - He was a full participant coming off IR, while Keenan Allen (heel) was already ruled out. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Diontae Johnson - A PPR scammer, Diontae's profile looks weakened by the Steelers No. 28 neutral pass rate with Mitch Trubisky under center. He's the WR43 on WR39 usage this month, while feeling this close to a total meltdown. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - A battle of regression: McLaurin is the WR74 on WR27 usage this month. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - He went DNP-DNP-full in practice.
Demario Douglas - JuJu seems very questionable, and DeVante Parker remains a limited participant in practice. Douglas is back from concussion.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashid Shaheed - No Chris Olave and Michael Thomas hopefully means Shaheed is a full-time player. He was limited in practice all week with a thigh injury.
George Pickens - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Jones - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown (Questionable) - He's been DNP-limited-limited with that lingering heel injury. A date with the 49ers isn't going to help.
Josh Downs - It's been a bad month for Downs, the WR75 on WR45 usage. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - Rain and 15 MPH winds are expected. 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - Wide open long TD missed by Bryce last week.
Noah Brown - This assumes C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are out.
Tee Higgins - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demarcus Robinson - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Boyd - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jameson Williams - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Alec Pierce - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darius Slayton - 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Parker Washington - 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave (Questionable) - He hasn't practiced yet with an ankle, but this is an elite matchup if he's truly healthy. The Giants are 4th-worst against fantasy WRs, and this one is at home in a dome with Derek Carr completely off the injury report. 65.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. It sounds like he's not going to play.
Travis Kelce - He's only the TE5 on TE5 usage this month with the Chiefs offense averaging 22.5 points per game compared to 29.2 and 28.2 in the years prior. Kelce's yards after the catch splash plays are harder to spot in his age-34 season while playing through some injuries, but he's also 1-of-2 pass catchers with a pulse. Kelce hasn't faced Belichick in years. In the meantime, New England is 3rd-best against fantasy TEs. 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - The 49ers have a 30.75-point team total. Big things can happen at any moment, regardless of target share or expected points. 45.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Sam LaPorta - The Broncos are 2nd-worst against fantasy TEs and have allowed 6 different TEs to reach 39+ yards since Week 10. That's tough to do. LaPorta is a real threat on tape, and Goff returns to his bed where his tiny hands can rest comfortably within the confines of a dome. The Lions have the 4th-highest team total of the week. 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Trey McBride - Since Kyler Murray returned, McBride is the TE2 on TE3 usage, and he's looked good doing it. A date with the 49ers (4th vs. fantasy TEs) is never fun, but the ball has to go somewhere and there aren't many options in negative game script in Arizona, especially if Marquise Brown (heel) isn't ready after a DNP on Wednesday.
Jake Ferguson - Aside from Travis Kelce (83 yards), Darren Waller (43), and Evan Engram (28), the Bills haven't seen any baller TEs. Ferg Daddy aka Fergie aka A$AP Ferg aka Big Seam Daddy is a certified baller. He's the TE8 on TE6 usage this month on an offense with the most quality passing volume. As a reminder, the Bills don't have All Pro LB Matt Milano this season. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - Suddenly the TE4 on TE4 usage this month, Engram is back roasting teams in December as he did last year. No Christian Kirk helps, as did Lawrence's preference of a quick time to throw last week on an iffy ankle. Underneath TEs like "Davis Allen" (4-50-1), Gerald Everett (4-43-1), Tanner Hudson (4-49-0), and David Njoku (6-58-0) have played the Ravens well despite having an elite defense as a whole. More quick throws await Engram in the flats. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
David Njoku - He's the TE6 on TE2 usage this month, while operating as the Browns' go to schemed up player. Check-and-releases, screens, and leaks have all appeared on tape, which is hard to find at this position. Joe Flacco also plays with confidence and poise, which is why Cleveland is 3rd in neutral pass rate. Pair all that with Njoku's freakish athleticism and we have an upside player. The Bears have allowed the 6th most receptions to TEs, too. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - He's averaging 10.5 expected half PPR points in 5 healthy games with Justin Jefferson, but Hockenson is now playing with a 3rd-string QB. The Vikings' team total is just 18.0 points so new expectations are warranted. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - He went limited-limited-full in practice and should be heavily involved with Chris Olave unlikely to play.
Dalton Kincaid (Questionable) - He's the TE10 on TE7 usage this month with the offense becoming more RB reliant under OC Joe Brady. Now Kincaid is dealing with a shoulder injury (limited) and the return of Dawson Knox. The Bills did play with significantly more 2-TE sets in Week 14 with Knox healthy, but it didn't impact Kincaid's playing time. Kincaid remains a locked-in fantasy TE1 with the Bills projected for the 3rd most points on the week. Dallas hasn't played many good TEs this year. Kittle was one of them and he dropped 3-67-3 on them.
Isaiah Likely - A pre-snap motion design created a coverage bust on Likely's long TD last week, so it's hard to chase that production. He is a fluid mover and a full-time player attached to Lamar at the very least, but Likely has 5.7 and 8.3 expected half PPR points without Mark Andrews. Odell Beckham has stepped up in his absence. 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darren Waller (Questionable) - He only was limited in practice.
Dallas Goedert - Despite heavy negative game script, Goedert only had 4.9 expected half PPR points in his return. That said, Philly has the 5th-highest team total of the week.
Kyle Pitts - A nice downfield route created a long TD for Pitts last week, but the Falcons still have the 3rd-lowest neutral pass rate this month, resulting in a TE14 usage rating for Pitts. Volume is a real concern with the Panthers running the ball more than any offense in the NFL this month.
Gerald Everett - No Keenan Allen certainly helps, but the Chargers are a total mess (15.75-point team total). Everett was the TE9 on TE10 usage this month with Justin Herbert. Beware of Easton Stick's sneaky athleticism on Thursday Night Football. 29.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - The Browns have allowed 38 receptions to TEs. The next closest, 47. Cleveland has allowed 357 yards to TEs. The next closest, 464. This is an elite fantasy TE defense, and the Bears have a 16.75-point team total, too. Kmet is the TE11 in usage this month.
Logan Thomas - A garbage time king, Thomas has been inconsistent all season long but catches a favorable matchup here. The Commanders are 6.5-point dogs to the Rams, who are the 3rd-worst fantasy TE defense this season. He's the TE16 in usage this month. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Higbee (Questionable) - He was limited (neck) on Wednesday, but the Rams need him to return as soon as possible with backup TE Hunter Long placed on IR. It was "Dennis Allen" who popped up in Week 14 as a check-down option. 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tucker Kraft - He's posted 4.6, 8.7, and 4.9 expected half PPR points without Luke Musgrave, as solid fantasy TE2. The Bucs are a fine bounce back matchup for Jordan Love and Kraft, as they're 5th-worst in receptions and receiving yards allowed to TEs. No Christian Watson (DNP Wednesday) helps.
Dalton Schultz (Questionable) - He's due back after a full practice on Wednesday, but CJ Stroud (concussion) is likely to miss. A 17.75-point team total with Davis Mills is far from sexy, but Schultz is the best receiving option in Houston with Nico Collins and Tank Dell out. We'll see if the Texans try to run on a fierce Titans DL or if they try their chances through the air. Tennessee happens to be the best fantasy TE defense this season.
Pat Freiermuth - He's the TE14 on TE12 usage since returning from injury, but the Steelers admitted his spike week stemmed from a matchup advantage, one QBed by Kenny Pickett not Mitch Trubisky. The Steelers have a below average 19.75-point team total on the No. 29 neutral pass rate. We'll see if Diontae Johnson (DNP Wednesday) suits up. 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - The youngster is up to TE21 on TE15 usage this month while working out the kinks of his game. Houston has allowed the most receptions to TEs this season, so the TE2 momentum can continue.
Tyler Conklin - Everyone is sleeping on Conklin's volume with the Jets passing more under Zach Wilson and with CJ Uzomah on IR. He's coming off 13.9 and 6.7 expected half PPR points. It helps the Jets are expected to lose by 8.5 points to the Dolphins, and perhaps the gusty winds force more checkdowns here.
Hunter Henry - The TDs were sweet last week, but the Patriots' 13.75-point team total against a feisty Chiefs defense scares me away. Henry is the TE22 in usage this month.
Cade Otton - He's the TE25 on TE17 usage this month with the Bucs tanking in neutral pass rate (27th). The Packers are more of a run funnel, so there are better TE2 options.
Tanner Hudson - 19.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kylen Granson - 15.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 15 are the Saints (vs. NYG), Dolphins (vs. NYJ), Browns (vs. CHI), Chiefs (at NE), Falcons (at CAR), 49ers (at ARI), Titans (vs. HOU), and Raiders (vs. LAC).
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.