Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.
The No. 2 fantasy QB faces the No. 31 defense against fantasy QBs. Seems good. Matchup-wise, the Ravens are man-heavy which could give Isaiah McKenzie some reps over Jamison Crowder in the slot, but Stefon Diggs is the primary man beater. Expect Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox to play better a week removed from their Week 2 injuries, especially with this game not being played on a 110-degree football field this week.
The Bills' defensive metrics likely can't stay this good with four of the secondary starters out. And even at full health, Lamar Jackson is playing so well inside and outside the pocket, that it likely wouldn't matter. Can't wait for this game.
Last week against a single-high based defense, the Bengals had their highest neutral pass rate game since Week 10 of 2020. That's encouraging. Miami will blitz and play man defense most likely, which plays into the strengths of Cincinnatti's offense. I like this matchup. So does Vegas. The Bengals are 4th in implied points this week.
Famous last words, but I think Mahomes is not an elite fantasy QB this week. Kansas City has a lower-than-usual team total against a defense that's top-6 in passing EPA, adjusted sack rate, and QB fantasy points allowed. Mahomes has played well (1st in passing EPA per play), but it's obvious that the offense is working through their new personnel and formations. They should get better later in the season. Lastly, we could have weather issues if this game stays in Florida due to Hurricane Ian. It could move to the Minnesota dome.
All Pro caliber LT Ra'Shawn Slater (biceps) is out for the year, and his backup was PFF's No. 85 OT out of 87 qualifiers last week. We talked about the Chargers offense here, but in short, expect even more quick game and worse efficiency in general. They also lost their primary speed threat (Jalen Guyton) for the season. This team could finish would be bottom-5 in a skill position relay race. Herbert, it's all on you now. At least the Texans are up next.
Nothing about this offense threatens deep, and there are so few high-low reads for Kyler to make. It's all on him to make a play, and the Panthers defense has plenty of athlete to keep up. It's just impossible to rank Kyler lower with his skillset, even the Arizona's 20.75-point team total is meh.
He is one of "My Guys" this week (video). 9th in team total, the Falcons are in a good spot against a defense that's had some struggled despite immense talent (Myles Garrett is questionable due to a car accident). On tape, I really like the Falcons offense. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are running deeper routes in addition to some screens, allowing the play action game to be maximized. Mariota isn't perfect with turnovers, but they have been moving the ball consistently.
Are London morning games considered prime time? Where are the narrative bros at on this one?
Getting Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (questionable), and Julio Jones (questionable) back will help everything, and potentially encourage more pass volume, as Tampa is only 23rd in neutral pass rate right now.
I was initially higher on Goff, but no Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark lower his odds of hitting a ceiling. Josh Reynolds and Kaliff Raymond are his top receivers, with Jamaal Williams and T.J. Hockenson projected for more points than normal, too.
The scheme is putting all of their role players into positions where they succeed, and Lawrence has taken a second-year leap. Jacksonville is well-protected, too, ranking 1st in sack rate on offense. This is the toughest matchup to date, by far, but the Eagles offense has been so good that this could just turn into a fast-paced shootout. Both offenses are top-7 in neutral pace.
Adjustments are needed. The Rams are 24th in implied points this week.
We discussed him here, with all-22 film. In short, he's been good. The Browns are suddenly 5th in implied team total, so Brissett is a legit QB2 option.
He's leading the NFL in completion percentage over expected and has generally played alright. Smith isn't a huge playmaker and can be hesitant, but he's good enough to keep Metcalf and Lockett afloat. Timing. Timing. Timing.
Chased down outside of the pocket like a wounded zebra, Ryan's success will be entirely pocket focused and will be limited in general. The Titans defense is missing pieces everywhere, however. More on this later in the week.
We discussed him here, with all-22 film. In short, it's bad. The good news is the Cardinals' secondary is 31st against the pass and the pass rush is dead last. Now or never for Mayfield.
The best offensive lineman in the NFL by a wide margin, losing LT Trent Williams can't be overstated. His backup was benched 7 snaps in after missing at least 3 blocks, and the rest of the OL was already well below-average. Jimmy G will have to stay poised under pressure to have success, especially with Aaron Donald in town. As usual, the Niners are 32nd in neutral pace and 31st in neutral pass rate.
Washington DC Jack Del Rio needs to do some more of his own research on how to communicate in the secondary. Until then, the Commanders will be below-average against the pass despite a talent-heavy front seven. Cooper Rush should get Michael Gallup (and maybe Dalton Schultz) back to round out the skill group.
The 30th ranked passing offense vs. the 30th ranked passing defense. The result: go outside or to therapy, rather than watching this.
Fields can't be an NFL starter unless he starts throwing the ball downfield when it's available. I'd like to see more traditional dropbacks because defenses have been all over these bootlegs. The result: Chicago is the first offense since 1972 to open the first three games with 8 or fewer completions.
Addicted to sacks, Wentz welcomes absolute freak Micah Parsons. The betting markets have took notice.
30th in neutral pace and 28th in neutral pass rate is an impossible task to overcome. The Colts also play slow and held up well against the damn Chiefs last week. The Titans remain without LT Taylor Lewan, who is out for the year and probably their best lineman in general.
Jameis Winston (back) is out.
No Joey Bosa (IR) nor J.C. Jackson (ankle) helps this matchup, but Mills just isn't good enough to rank much higher.
15.25 implied points is unserious NFL football.
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Saquon Barkley
Jonathan Taylor
Christian McCaffrey
Nick Chubb - Look at the MFin chart.
Joe Mixon - A massive positive regression candidate.
Jamaal Williams - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Derrick Henry
Austin Ekeler
Leonard Fournette
Dalvin Cook
Javonte Williams
James Conner
Najee Harris
Khalil Herbert - David Montgomery (ankle) is out, and last week, Herbert had 18.0 expected half PPR points. We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Aaron Jones
A.J. Dillon
Cordarrelle Patterson - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Jeff Wilson
Josh Jacobs
James Robinson
Kareem Hunt
Miles Sanders
Antonio Gibson
Ezekiel Elliott
Mark Ingram - Alvin Kamara (ribs) is out. Expect Ingram to handle all early downs.
Devin Singletary - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Dameon Pierce - He fumbled twice last week, including one late in the game. Pierce didn't play the rest of the game, though most of it came during the 2-minute drill which typically belongs to Rex Burkhead. There's a slightly lower floor here just in case their is a rookie benching. I put those odds low, but they do exist.
Michael Carter - See RB28 Breece Hall.
Breece Hall - He's playing more snaps because he regained the 2-minute drill role, but Hall is still behind Carter in the 2-back rotation in general. Fewer passes to RBs are expected with backyard QB Zach Wilson back instead of checkdown king Joe Flacco.
Cam Akers - His last touch was a goal line fumble. Let's see if McVay holds it against him, as he's called out Akers' consistency already earlier this season. My guess is a committee again. This time, however, the Rams are only projected for 20.0 points.
Darrell Henderson - See RB31 Cam Akers.
Tony Pollard
Rashaad Penny
Damien Harris
Rhamondre Stevenson
Travis Etienne
Melvin Gordon
Chase Edmonds
Raheem Mostert
J.K. Dobbins - A fine debut, but the Ravens are dead last in RB fantasy usage and Dobbins won't have a bellcow workload coming off injury.
Ken Walker
Rex Burkhead
Jerick McKinnon
Craig Reynolds
J.D. McKissic
Nyheim Hines
Kenneth Gainwell
Rachaad White
Trestan Ebner
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Cooper Kupp
Stefon Diggs
Justin Jefferson - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Davante Adams - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Ja'Marr Chase - A massive positive regression candidate.
Tyreek Hill
Mike Williams
A.J. Brown
Jaylen Waddle
Michael Pittman
Tee Higgins
Deebo Samuel
Courtland Sutton
CeeDee Lamb
Mike Evans
Marquise Brown - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Gabe Davis - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Drake London
Christian Kirk
Diontae Johnson - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Amari Cooper
Brandin Cooks - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Chris Olave - No Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas. Expect more underneath targets with Andy Dalton, too. He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Tyler Lockett - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
DeVonta Smith - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
DK Metcalf
Curtis Samuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Rashod Bateman
Joshua Palmer
Jerry Jeudy
Brandon Aiyuk
D.J. Moore - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Josh Reynolds - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Terry McLaurin
Chris Godwin (Questionable) - This assumes he's not at full health.
Elijah Moore
Garrett Wilson
Romeo Doubs - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Mack Hollins
Allen Robinson
Adam Thielen
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Questionable)
Allen Lazard
Richie James
Chase Claypool
Tyler Boyd
Jahan Dotson
Jarvis Landry (Questionable)
Rondale Moore (Questionable)
Isaiah McKenzie
Darnell Mooney
DeVante Parker
Robbie Anderson
Nico Collins
Treylon Burks
Mecole Hardman
Marvin Jones
Kaliff Raymond
Robert Woods
K.J. Osborn
George Pickens
Noah Brown
Michael Gallup (Questionable)
Julio Jones (Questionable)
Russell Gage (Questionable)
Corey Davis
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Marvin Jones
Devin Duvernay
Ben Skowronek - Check out this Rams film video.
Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.
Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce
Kyle Pitts - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.
Darren Waller
T.J. Hockenson
Zach Ertz
George Kittle
Dallas Goedert
David Njoku - We discussed him here, with all-22 film. He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).
Gerald Everett
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Higbee
Dawson Knox
Robert Tonyan
Dalton Schultz (Questionable)
Evan Engram
Hayden Hurst
Tyler Conklin
Irv Smith
Logan Thomas
Juwan Johnson
Albert Okwuegbunam
Noah Fant
Cameron Brate
Hunter Henry
Mike Gesicki
Isaiah Likely
Austin Hooper
Cole Kmet
Taysom Hill
The defenses of the week are the Giants, Cowboys, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Vikings, and Steelers.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest. Here are my downloadable rankings. Save this as a CSV, change "ID" to "id", and upload them on the Rankings tab on Underdog desktop. Good luck!
Column is here.