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Week 4 Battle Royale Rankings & Strategy

Sep 29th 2022

Hayden Winks

Traditional (salary cap) DFS hasn't changed in years and has been infiltrated by the optimizers, but there's a new DFS format on Underdog Fantasy called "Battle Royale". It's 6-round, 6-person snake drafts that take just a few minutes to complete. This week's prize structure has $250k total with $50k to first place on a $5 entry, but there are also $25, $50, and $100 entry options, too. Safe to say the format is growing, thus why I'm putting more time and effort into content around it.

I wrote this general strategy guide for Battle Royale with the main points being: 1) We're still stacking and adding correlation like traditional DFS, and 2) We're still looking for lower rostered plays like traditional DFS. The latter can be exploited even more so in Battle Royale versus traditional DFS because there is an anchoring bias towards the default rankings and ADPs. Let's go over how to exploit it this week.

Stacking Options

Tier 1: Obvious Stacks

  • Josh Allen (1.6 ADP) - A pristine matchup against the Ravens' banged up defense, Allen is my QB1 on the week. The question is, do you stack Allen with another pass catcher or not. Stefon Diggs (4.7 ADP) is basically impossible to stack with, so I'm requiring a Gabe Davis (20.5 ADP) or Dawson Knox (35.5 ADP) stacking pair later in the draft if I pick Allen. Aside from Andrews, the TE position is weak, so I don't mind Allen plus Knox teams at all, given the latter goes undrafted often. ... Bring back options: Rashod Bateman (33.1 ADP).

  • Lamar Jackson (2.7 ADP) - The Bills are also injured on defense, so the matchup is fine for the MVP candidate. Pairing Jackson with Andrews (5.1 ADP) will be nearly impossible, but it's the best stack by a large margin if you are lucky enough to get it. If no Andrews, Bateman (33.1 ADP) is a must on Jackson teams. By the way, I'd rank Andrews inside the top-4 overall. ... Bring back options: Gabe Davis (20.5 ADP), Dawson Knox (35.5).

  • Jalen Hurts (3.4 ADP) - Because he's easier to stack with, there's an argument for Hurts ahead of the other two QBs. A.J. Brown (9.9 ADP), DeVonta Smith (23.2 ADP), or Dallas Goedert (29.4 ADP) are stacking options. The Eagles are passing enough and playing with enough pace to double-stack with Hurts, even though he is still running a ton. ... Bring back options: Christian Kirk (26.1 ADP), James Robinson (34.0 ADP), Evan Engram (26.0).

Tier 2: Mostly Drafted

  • Justin Herbert (21.9 ADP) - There's a tier drop from the top-3 QBs to Herbert and the rest of these QBs, but Herbert still has an obvious ceiling against the Texans with his skill guys healthier. Austin Ekeler (16.8 ADP), Mike Williams (30.5 ADP), Keenan Allen (35.3 ADP), and Gerald Everett (35.6 ADP) all go at affordable price tags. Double stacks are recommended. ... Bring back options: Positive Regression Candidate Brandin Cooks (35.7 ADP).

  • Kyler Murray (24.1 ADP) - None of his pass-catchers are drafted early: Marquise Brown (18.9 ADP), Zach Ertz (32.9 ADP), and James Conner (35.8). It's a lot of hero ball in Arizona, but we know the spiked-week potential in this offense. ... Bring back options: Suddenly questionable Christian McCaffrey (9.3), D.J. Moore (35.8 ADP).

Tier 3: Sub-10% Drafted

  • Marcus Mariota (35.4 ADP) - He's going undrafted almost every time, but the Falcons have a top-10 projected team total and Mariota has a condensed target tree between Kyle Pitts (22.1 ADP) and Drake London (33.5 ADP). That's a good formula for DFS tournaments. ... Bring back options: Nick Chubb (7.9 ADP), Amari Cooper (20.5 ADP), and David Njoku (33.0).

  • Aaron Rodgers (33.7 ADP) - The Packers have a healthy 25.25-point team total, and Rodgers has better injury luck around him right now. He's best paired with the largely undrafted Romeo Doubs (35.5 ADP) and/or Allen Lazard (35.9 ADP), but Aaron Jones (29.6 ADP) is also positively correlated given his pass-game work inside the red zone. ... Bring back options: None.

  • Derek Carr (35.2 ADP) - A top-10 team total has the Raiders in the frisky range despite the tough on-paper matchup against the Broncos. Carr will have a condensed target share if Hunter Renfrow (DNP Wednesday) can't play again. I love Davante Adams' price tag (11.1 ADP). Same with Darren Waller (27.3 ADP). If you're a true sicko, full-time deep threat Mack Hollins (35.9 ADP) is here, too. ... Bring back options: Courtland Sutton (23.2 ADP), Javonte Williams (34.8 ADP), and Jerry Jeudy (35.8 ADP).

  • Russell Wilson (35.3 ADP) - It hasn't been pretty, but we know that Russ has spiked weeks in his DNA. Courtland Sutton (23.2 ADP) is my favorite stacking partner, but Jerry Jeudy (35.8 ADP) is an option, along with Javonte Williams (34.8 ADP) because he's running a good amount of routes. ... Bring back options: They're great. Davante Adams (11.1 ADP), Darren Waller (27.3 ADP).

  • Trevor Lawrence (34.7 ADP) - He's balling out in a well-coached scheme that puts Christian Kirk (26.1 ADP) into advantageous matchups. We'll see if Zay Jones (35.9 ADP) is available. If not, Marvin Jones (36.0) is a true sicko play. As is Travis Etienne (36.0 ADP) or James Robinson (34.0 ADP) if we can get lucky receiving scores. ... Bring back options: A.J. Brown (9.9 ADP), DeVonta Smith (23.2 ADP), Dallas Goedert (29.4 ADP), or Miles Sanders (35.9 ADP).

  • Jared Goff (35.4 ADP) - This will be harder to justify if Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.8 ADP) can't play. Goff has played well, however, and the betting markets respect them with a top-5 implied team total. T.J. Hockenson (35.3 ADP) and D.J. Chark (35.9 ADP) are here for the galaxy-brain sickos. ... Bring back options: DK Metcalf (34.4 ADP) and Tyler Lockett (35.2 ADP)

Largely Undrafted Leverage

You can find my weekly rankings here to compare them to ADPs.

  • Javonte Williams (34.8 ADP) - The snaps were down last week, but I refuse to believe Mike Boone is an actual thing. This season, Williams is the RB4 in fantasy usage. He's a positive regression candidate. We shouldn't be afraid of the Raiders defense.

  • James Conner (35.8 ADP) - He's the RB8 in fantasy usage to date, but Conner has been slower on a bummed ankle. I bet his 60% snap rate increases moving forward. We've seen the multi-TD upside plenty in this offense.

  • Brandin Cooks (35.7 ADP) - A massive positive regression candidate facing a defense without EDGE Joey Bosa and CB1 J.C. Jackson. Cooks is the WR17 in usage to date.

  • Drake London (33.5 ADP) - Damn good at the game, and this time, the Falcons have a top-12 implied team total.

  • DK Metcalf (34.4 ADP) - Another positive regression candidate, Metcalf had 21.5 expected half PPR points last week when the Seahawks passed more than usual. He's quietly the WR20 in usage this season. I like Tyler Lockett (34.5 ADP) a lot, too.

  • Josh Palmer (35.9 ADP) - Projects better with Keenan Allen out.

  • Dawson Knox (35.5 ADP) - It's been a tough start, but Knox is 9th in TE routes and the Bills are projected for the most points of the week. That gives him multi-TD upside at a position that lacks upside in general, aside from Mark Andrews.

  • Gerald Everett (35.6 ADP) - The TE7 on TE7 usage this season. He's the Chargers' athletic mismatch.