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Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint

Sep 29th 2022

Hayden Winks

Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon up as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time.

Week 4 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen - Bills @ BAL (27.75 points, -3.5 spread)

The No. 2 fantasy QB faces the No. 31 defense against fantasy QBs. Seems good. Matchup-wise, the Ravens are man-heavy which could give Isaiah McKenzie some reps over Jamison Crowder in the slot, but Stefon Diggs is the primary man beater. Expect Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox to play better a week removed from their Week 2 injuries, especially with this game not being played on a 110-degree football field this week.

2. Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. JAX (27.5, -6.5)

3. Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. BUF (24.25, +3.5)

The Bills' defensive metrics likely can't stay this good with four of the secondary starters out. And even at full health, Lamar Jackson is playing so well inside and outside the pocket, that it likely wouldn't matter. Can't wait for this game.

4. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. MIA (25.5, -4)

Last week against a single-high based defense, the Bengals had their highest neutral pass rate game since Week 10 of 2020. That's encouraging. Miami will blitz and play man defense most likely, which plays into the strengths of Cincinnatti's offense. I like this matchup. So does Vegas. The Bengals are 4th in implied points this week.

5. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs @ TB (23.75, -2)

Famous last words, but I think Mahomes is not an elite fantasy QB this week. Kansas City has a lower-than-usual team total against a defense that's top-6 in passing EPA, adjusted sack rate, and QB fantasy points allowed. Mahomes has played well (1st in passing EPA per play), but it's obvious that the offense is working through their new personnel and formations. They should get better later in the season. Lastly, we could have weather issues if this game stays in Florida due to Hurricane Ian. It could move to the Minnesota dome.

6. Justin Herbert - Chargers @ HOU (24.75, -5)

All Pro caliber LT Ra'Shawn Slater (biceps) is out for the year, and his backup was PFF's No. 85 OT out of 87 qualifiers last week. We talked about the Chargers offense here, but in short, expect even more quick game and worse efficiency in general. They also lost their primary speed threat (Jalen Guyton) for the season. This team could finish would be bottom-5 in a skill position relay race. Herbert, it's all on you now. At least the Texans are up next.

7. Kyler Murray - Cardinals @ CAR (20.75, +1.5)

Nothing about this offense threatens deep, and there are so few high-low reads for Kyler to make. It's all on him to make a play, and the Panthers defense has plenty of athlete to keep up. It's just impossible to rank Kyler lower with his skillset, even the Arizona's 20.75-point team total is meh.

8. Marcus Mariota - Falcons vs. CLE (24.25, +1.5)

He is one of "My Guys" this week (video). 9th in team total, the Falcons are in a good spot against a defense that's had some struggled despite immense talent (Myles Garrett is questionable due to a car accident). On tape, I really like the Falcons offense. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are running deeper routes in addition to some screens, allowing the play action game to be maximized. Mariota isn't perfect with turnovers, but they have been moving the ball consistently.

9. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ NO (23.25, -3)

Are London morning games considered prime time? Where are the narrative bros at on this one?

10. Aaron Rodgers - Packers vs. NE (25.25, -10)

11. Tom Brady - Bucs vs. KC (21.75, +2)

Getting Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (questionable), and Julio Jones (questionable) back will help everything, and potentially encourage more pass volume, as Tampa is only 23rd in neutral pass rate right now.

12. Derek Carr - Raiders vs. DEN (24.0, -2.5)

13. Jared Goff - Lions vs. SEA (27.25, -4.5)

I was initially higher on Goff, but no Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark lower his odds of hitting a ceiling. Josh Reynolds and Kaliff Raymond are his top receivers, with Jamaal Williams and T.J. Hockenson projected for more points than normal, too.

14. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins @ CIN (21.5, +4)

15. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ LV (21.5, +2.5)

16. Trevor Lawerence - Jaguars @ PHI (21.0, +6.5)

The scheme is putting all of their role players into positions where they succeed, and Lawrence has taken a second-year leap. Jacksonville is well-protected, too, ranking 1st in sack rate on offense. This is the toughest matchup to date, by far, but the Eagles offense has been so good that this could just turn into a fast-paced shootout. Both offenses are top-7 in neutral pace.

17. Matthew Stafford - Rams @ SF (20.0, +2.5)

Adjustments are needed. The Rams are 24th in implied points this week.

18. Jakoby Brissett - Browns @ ATL (25.75, -1.5)

We discussed him here, with all-22 film. In short, he's been good. The Browns are suddenly 5th in implied team total, so Brissett is a legit QB2 option.

19. Daniel Jones - Giants vs. CHI (21.25, -3.5)

20. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ DET (22.75, +4.5)

He's leading the NFL in completion percentage over expected and has generally played alright. Smith isn't a huge playmaker and can be hesitant, but he's good enough to keep Metcalf and Lockett afloat. Timing. Timing. Timing.

21. Matt Ryan - Colts vs. TEN (23.0, -3.5)

Chased down outside of the pocket like a wounded zebra, Ryan's success will be entirely pocket focused and will be limited in general. The Titans defense is missing pieces everywhere, however. More on this later in the week.

22. Baker Mayfield - Panthers vs. ARI (22.25, -1.5)

We discussed him here, with all-22 film. In short, it's bad. The good news is the Cardinals' secondary is 31st against the pass and the pass rush is dead last. Now or never for Mayfield.

23. Jimmy Garoppolo - 49ers vs. LAR (22.5, -2.5)

The best offensive lineman in the NFL by a wide margin, losing LT Trent Williams can't be overstated. His backup was benched 7 snaps in after missing at least 3 blocks, and the rest of the OL was already well below-average. Jimmy G will have to stay poised under pressure to have success, especially with Aaron Donald in town. As usual, the Niners are 32nd in neutral pace and 31st in neutral pass rate.

24. Cooper Rush - Cowboys vs. WAS (23.0, -3.5)

Washington DC Jack Del Rio needs to do some more of his own research on how to communicate in the secondary. Until then, the Commanders will be below-average against the pass despite a talent-heavy front seven. Cooper Rush should get Michael Gallup (and maybe Dalton Schultz) back to round out the skill group.

25. Mitchell Trubisky - Steelers vs. NYJ (22.0, -3.5)

The 30th ranked passing offense vs. the 30th ranked passing defense. The result: go outside or to therapy, rather than watching this.

26. Justin Fields - Bears @ NYG (17.75, +3.5)

Fields can't be an NFL starter unless he starts throwing the ball downfield when it's available. I'd like to see more traditional dropbacks because defenses have been all over these bootlegs. The result: Chicago is the first offense since 1972 to open the first three games with 8 or fewer completions.

27. Carson Wentz - Commanders @ DAL (19.5, +3.5)

Addicted to sacks, Wentz welcomes absolute freak Micah Parsons. The betting markets have took notice.

28. Ryan Tannehill - Titans @ IND (19.5, +3.5)

30th in neutral pace and 28th in neutral pass rate is an impossible task to overcome. The Colts also play slow and held up well against the damn Chiefs last week. The Titans remain without LT Taylor Lewan, who is out for the year and probably their best lineman in general.

29. Andy Dalton - Saints vs. MIN (20.5, +2.5)

Jameis Winston (back) is out.

30. Davis Mills - Texans vs. LAC (19.75, +5)

No Joey Bosa (IR) nor J.C. Jackson (ankle) helps this matchup, but Mills just isn't good enough to rank much higher.

31. Zach Wilson - Jets @ PIT (18.5, +3.5)

32. Brian Hoyer - Patriots @ GB (15.25, +10)

15.25 implied points is unserious NFL football.

Week 4 RB Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Saquon Barkley

  2. Jonathan Taylor

  3. Christian McCaffrey

  4. Nick Chubb - Look at the MFin chart.

  5. Joe Mixon - A massive positive regression candidate.

  6. Jamaal Williams - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  7. Derrick Henry

  8. Austin Ekeler

  9. Leonard Fournette

  10. Dalvin Cook

  11. Javonte Williams

  12. James Conner

  13. Najee Harris

  14. Khalil Herbert - David Montgomery (ankle) is out, and last week, Herbert had 18.0 expected half PPR points. We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  15. Aaron Jones

  16. A.J. Dillon

  17. Cordarrelle Patterson - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  18. Jeff Wilson

  19. Josh Jacobs

  20. James Robinson

  21. Kareem Hunt

  22. Miles Sanders

  23. Antonio Gibson

  24. Ezekiel Elliott

  25. Mark Ingram - Alvin Kamara (ribs) is out. Expect Ingram to handle all early downs.

  26. Devin Singletary - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  27. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  28. Dameon Pierce - He fumbled twice last week, including one late in the game. Pierce didn't play the rest of the game, though most of it came during the 2-minute drill which typically belongs to Rex Burkhead. There's a slightly lower floor here just in case their is a rookie benching. I put those odds low, but they do exist.

  29. Michael Carter - See RB28 Breece Hall.

  30. Breece Hall - He's playing more snaps because he regained the 2-minute drill role, but Hall is still behind Carter in the 2-back rotation in general. Fewer passes to RBs are expected with backyard QB Zach Wilson back instead of checkdown king Joe Flacco.

  31. Cam Akers - His last touch was a goal line fumble. Let's see if McVay holds it against him, as he's called out Akers' consistency already earlier this season. My guess is a committee again. This time, however, the Rams are only projected for 20.0 points.

  32. Darrell Henderson - See RB31 Cam Akers.

  33. Tony Pollard

  34. Rashaad Penny

  35. Damien Harris

  36. Rhamondre Stevenson

  37. Travis Etienne

  38. Melvin Gordon

  39. Chase Edmonds

  40. Raheem Mostert

  41. J.K. Dobbins - A fine debut, but the Ravens are dead last in RB fantasy usage and Dobbins won't have a bellcow workload coming off injury.

  42. Ken Walker

  43. Rex Burkhead

  44. Jerick McKinnon

  45. Craig Reynolds

  46. J.D. McKissic

  47. Nyheim Hines

  48. Kenneth Gainwell

  49. Rachaad White

  50. Trestan Ebner

Week 4 WR Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Cooper Kupp

  2. Stefon Diggs

  3. Justin Jefferson - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  4. Davante Adams - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  5. Ja'Marr Chase - A massive positive regression candidate.

  6. Tyreek Hill

  7. Mike Williams

  8. A.J. Brown

  9. Jaylen Waddle

  10. Michael Pittman

  11. Tee Higgins

  12. Deebo Samuel

  13. Courtland Sutton

  14. CeeDee Lamb

  15. Mike Evans

  16. Marquise Brown - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  17. Gabe Davis - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  18. Drake London

  19. Christian Kirk

  20. Diontae Johnson - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  21. Amari Cooper

  22. Brandin Cooks - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  23. Chris Olave - No Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas. Expect more underneath targets with Andy Dalton, too. He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  24. Tyler Lockett - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  25. DeVonta Smith - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  26. DK Metcalf

  27. Curtis Samuel

  28. JuJu Smith-Schuster

  29. Rashod Bateman

  30. Joshua Palmer

  31. Jerry Jeudy

  32. Brandon Aiyuk

  33. D.J. Moore - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  34. Josh Reynolds - He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  35. Terry McLaurin

  36. Chris Godwin (Questionable) - This assumes he's not at full health.

  37. Elijah Moore

  38. Garrett Wilson

  39. Romeo Doubs - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  40. Mack Hollins

  41. Allen Robinson

  42. Adam Thielen

  43. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Questionable)

  44. Allen Lazard

  45. Richie James

  46. Chase Claypool

  47. Tyler Boyd

  48. Jahan Dotson

  49. Jarvis Landry (Questionable)

  50. Rondale Moore (Questionable)

  51. Isaiah McKenzie

  52. Darnell Mooney

  53. DeVante Parker

  54. Robbie Anderson

  55. Nico Collins

  56. Treylon Burks

  57. Mecole Hardman

  58. Marvin Jones

  59. Kaliff Raymond

  60. Robert Woods

  61. K.J. Osborn

  62. George Pickens

  63. Noah Brown

  64. Michael Gallup (Questionable)

  65. Julio Jones (Questionable)

  66. Russell Gage (Questionable)

  67. Corey Davis

  68. Donovan Peoples-Jones

  69. Marvin Jones

  70. Devin Duvernay

  71. Ben Skowronek - Check out this Rams film video.

Week 4 TE Rankings

Read the player notes above. Rankings below are half PPR.

  1. Mark Andrews

  2. Travis Kelce

  3. Kyle Pitts - We discussed him here, with all-22 film.

  4. Darren Waller

  5. T.J. Hockenson

  6. Zach Ertz

  7. George Kittle

  8. Dallas Goedert

  9. David Njoku - We discussed him here, with all-22 film. He is one of "My Guys" this week (video).

  10. Gerald Everett

  11. Pat Freiermuth

  12. Tyler Higbee

  13. Dawson Knox

  14. Robert Tonyan

  15. Dalton Schultz (Questionable)

  16. Evan Engram

  17. Hayden Hurst

  18. Tyler Conklin

  19. Irv Smith

  20. Logan Thomas

  21. Juwan Johnson

  22. Albert Okwuegbunam

  23. Noah Fant

  24. Cameron Brate

  25. Hunter Henry

  26. Mike Gesicki

  27. Isaiah Likely

  28. Austin Hooper

  29. Cole Kmet

  30. Taysom Hill

Week 4 Fantasy Defenses For Sickos

The defenses of the week are the Giants, Cowboys, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Vikings, and Steelers.

Underdog Fantasy "Battle Royale" DFS

To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest. Here are my downloadable rankings. Save this as a CSV, change "ID" to "id", and upload them on the Rankings tab on Underdog desktop. Good luck!

Column is here.